Sir T, I should comment on your last statement first before addressing your individual points...

I too understand your anger at Toshiba -- this whole thing could have been avoided with some people thinking more sanely... I actually was a BR supporter before I switched to neutral with an HD DVD bias. BR had all the better specs on paper, and as you have rightly pointed out previously, more studio support and more manufacturer support. It appeared to be a relatively easy choice...

The reason for my switch and subsequent anger at BR and particularly Sony, is due to their lack of support for quality early on in their release schedule. HD DVD beat them to market with a lot of glitches in the players (and a few software ones as well), but I thought Sony et al were taking their time and getting it right... Then came their early BR release of "The Fifth Element" a film that was used by many for DVD as a reference standard... and they obviously used either a poor master or just did a sloppy overall job as the disc was called a disaster by many (including me as I got it for free with my player). This, after all the delays and wait and high prices was a big letdown for me and many others... Then there was "The House of Flying Daggers"... etc. One poorly done BR release after another. In the meantime, the player costs were $1000+ versus half that for HD DVD. The HD DVDs by comparison were relatively well-mastered (although they have had some clunkers too, of course). I think BR lost a lot of the early adopters right then and I personally have still not forgiven the format even though at this point I view the picture quality to be just as good as HD DVD (although no better). Bottom line is Toshiba went out of their way to improve their glitchy players early on, and the HD DVD group released primarily quality releases (from a video and audio perspective). In any case that is my take on why I am where I am today with respect to format support.

Now to discuss your other points...

In the case of MPEG-2 Vs. VC-1 or AVC etc. I am not saying VC-1 is superior, but rather it is better suited for lower volume space applications. Some of the early BR releases were hampered by single layer MPEG-2 transfers on a long movie that needed more space to breathe in order to maximize performance for the MPEG-2 format... Either that or they were just poorly mastered, of course. You used an example of one film. Longer films may have fared differently... It is irrelevant anyways, because now if you have a long film, BR can just use a dual layer 50GB disc. So the point really is moot. Bottom line is both formats can look just as good as the other when they are properly mastered on the right amount of disc layers.


As for the Venturer release information I stand corrected. Please accept my apologies.

In the case of 300, I stand by my comments on it being a poor example, IMO. It is not a matter of like or dislike... it is a matter of comparing apples to apples. Take the "Planet Earth" box set... That is a better comparison. Check the results on that and you get a different answer. It all comes down to what you look at.

That said, it is unquestioned that your facts are correct in overall sales, and that is a more accurate indicator. Of course all of these numers are from *before* the Paramount switch, so we will have to see if HD DVD makes a strong comeback in time as that plays out.

As for CH DVD and HD DVD being compatible... I never said that. What I *did* say was I believed China's taking on CH DVD was good for HD DVD. I believe this because I have read the CH DVD players can play HD DVDs too (*backward* compatibility). If this proves to be true, then I would say it is indeed good news for HD DVD. I guess we will see.

As for predicting the future... I am working on it, but unfortunately I keep on making errors. ;-) Still trying...

Seriously though, while I cannot see the future any better than anyone else, I do have a very good "gut feeling" instinct, and get it right *most* of the time. That is not to say this will be one of them of course... My gut tells me that the Paramount switch will turn the tide in standalone player sales back to HD DVD when coupled with HD DVD's relatively low pricing. Again, I can't predict the future, but the facts do seem to indicate I have a good chance of being right here. Again, it wouldn't be the first time I predict something wrong based on current trends, but I trust my business instincts.

Finally, with respect to Warner... That one we will just have to agree to disagree. I may have to eat a bit of humble pie in February of next year (maybe more than a bit), but I truly believe I am right on this one... Time will tell, and I certainly respect your beliefs to the contrary, and your reasoning for those beliefs.

Regards,

---Dave