Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
No comparison to SACD and DVD-A. Both formats were stillborn at birth. SACD was because there were no post processing tools for either the studio, on in the players. Secondly it didn't have the support of the major record companies, and that goes for DVD-A as well. DVD-A didn't do well because they couldn't deliver 24/96khz multichannel on a consistant basis, and often what was sold didn't sound any better than CD, but just added surround. Neither was easy to hookup to anyone's receiver because of copy protection. Thirdly, the consumer wants and wanted mobile audio, audio they could put on a pocket player and run. Neither audio format could do this.
HD DVD and Bluray do have industry support and can be hooked up to all current receivers. Apples and oranges comparison.
This I have to disagree with - our money-grubbing society seems way to eager to dismiss the lessons of just yesteryear, perhaps better said by Santayana: "those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it." The fact is that SACD and DVD-A provide perhaps the most accurate comparison to what could very well unfold with this format war.

First of all, they where not at all stillborn at birth, whatever that means. I remember the lively discussions online about each format's supposed superiority, the sizable catalog for DVD-A that made me drool because I chose SACD, and the almost weekly growth, albeit very short lived, in shelf space at places like Tower, Fry's, GG, and others. There was a time, not too long ago when every record company was considering the formats and DVD-A was the clear leader, much like BR is now. SACD was first out of the gate, but they just didn't have the catalog or the rock and new releases that DVD-A could boast about. This sounds a whole lot like what I'm reading here about BR. By the way, much of the fear-mongering about SACD processing and DVD-A's 24/96Hz inconsistencies had been laid to rest, if not technically, at least in the marketplace, when both formats really seemed to take off.

I also remember reading articles about these formats being the perfect storm, just as we were reaching a market saturation of surround sound systems in people's homes. The argument went that these formats were riding the wave of HT buying witnessed across the industry. And let's not forget that while Laserdisk players are no longer made, more and more quality players are being introduced supporting SACD and to a lesser extent DVD-A.

So what happened? you nailed it on the head: you could not copy them. Yes, we can argue ad-infinitum about whether that was truly their undoing, but the more interesting comparison here is that no one really has hacked HD-DVD or BR in a way that can be widely exploited. And for all the evils that bootlegging might conjure up, from starving artists to links to terrorism and drugs to the possibility that it will grow hair on the palms of your hands, we cannot ignore the possibility that this may be any format's greatest impediment to market saturation. After all, it was the very reason DOS & Windows spread like wildfire throughout the world, that blank cassette sales outnumbered original recording sales in some years, and that, regardless of what the MPAA/RIAA may want you to believe, it made American pop culture the world standard from the deepest jungles of Indonesia to the plateaus of the Andes.

This is where the greatest threat to these formats is, IMO: downloaded content. Downloads' greatest advantage over the greedy copy protection schemes (remember the Sony root-kit scandal?) of HD-DVD and BR, is convenience. I will even go so far as saying that below-DVD quality content such as what is growing like wildfire with the iMovie and the X-box, is eating into the profits of the hi-def formats. Ask any average Joe at BB or CC, what they would like more: unlimited and free access to 24 episodes via download at standard TV quality or the complete collection on HD-DVD / BR at outrageous cost to his pocketbook? It wouldn't even be about the money either. If he even knows what these formats are, he'll prefer the convenience of just clicking a few buttons on the remote and watch 6 episodes, commercial-free in a row than having to get up to switch disks. Heck, he'll probably prefer having it on his iPhone! This doesn't even get into the discussion of which format average Joe would choose.

The bottom line is that this format war is killing hi-def - like the proverbial snake eating its own tail. Decades off? I doubt it. If Japan has 60Mb/s download speeds (I believe that's enough for a full BR download in about 5 minutes), then it's only a matter of a few short years before the iMovie/x-box subscriptions start offering usable HD content for download here in the US. Given all the other stuff that is going on in the world right now that will distract people in the coming year, this x-mas season is crucial. I'll paraphrase from Drumline: "whatever the beef is between those two, they better grill it up and eat it," because if they don't, there's an eager new drummer sitting on the sidelines who can dance circles around them.