As reported by BDA & news from IFA

[Mr Peabody]

Toshiba's cheap price hasn't seemed to help them thus far. It's true though, we have no idea what is being worked on, and the war isn't over until it's over.

[pixelthis]

Toshiba's cheap price hasn't seemed to help them thus far. It's true though, we have no idea what is being worked on, and the war isn't over until it's over.

Its over.
Be great if both could surrive, more choices for the consumer, but there really is no reason to have two HD dvd DISCS.
A hybrid player would be easy, probably just have to refocus the laser for the thicker
coating on the HDDVD, but theres really no reason for such a thing.
People with HDDVD will join those with DIVIX and Cartrigevision, and laserdisc
(Ihave several thousand thousand dollars worth of those)
On the bright side you wont have spent too much on your player and software.
So its a good thing that this format war be over early.
HDDVD is a dinosaur, and that light over the horizon is where the asteroid hit

[PeruvianSkies]

Its over.
Be great if both could surrive, more choices for the consumer, but there really is no reason to have two HD dvd DISCS.
A hybrid player would be easy, probably just have to refocus the laser for the thicker
coating on the HDDVD, but theres really no reason for such a thing.
People with HDDVD will join those with DIVIX and Cartrigevision, and laserdisc
(Ihave several thousand thousand dollars worth of those)
On the bright side you wont have spent too much on your player and software.
So its a good thing that this format war be over early.
HDDVD is a dinosaur, and that light over the horizon is where the asteroid hit

If it's over, then why is it still going on? I've been rooting for Blu-ray since the beginning, just 'cause it sounds cooler, but now I am almost tempted to wish for HD-DVD to win, just to shut you up.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

If it's over, then why is it still going on? I've been rooting for Blu-ray since the beginning, just 'cause it sounds cooler, but now I am almost tempted to wish for HD-DVD to win, just to shut you up.

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

1. In order to optimize video encoding for both formats encoding has to be done seperately. Doing this is very expensive, and one of the reasons Paramount went to HD DVD exclusive recently. It was the cheaper of the two platforms to encode and replicate for. In the short run this was a wise decision as this limits their exposure to HDM cost wise while the market is still pretty small. In the long run it is a huge mistake because you leave income from the largest player base on the table. The peak bitrates of both formats are not the same. You could never use the encoding from Pirates of the Carribean on Bluray on HD DVD. The video bitrate goes way over HD DVD specifications. Now one could argue that VC-1 wouldn't need a bitrate over the HD DVD standard, but Disney would definately argue you down if you are looking for ultimate video transparency.

2. Retailers and manufacturers are pissed about this format war. Retail stores are forced to make room for both formats which digs into their money makers floor space. That would be DVD. Blockbuster, Best buy, Walmart, Target, have already decided that their floor space would be either mostly, or all dedicated to Bluray. I am sure before too long alot of other retailers will also make that decision. That is because profit margins are higher on bluray than on HD DVD. This is a mistake on the part of Toshiba's in that they raced their player prices to the bottom too quickly. Stores just do not make enough profit on their players to justify the shelf space so Toshiba has to buy encaps to make up for that fact. For Manufacturers, the whole object of HD players is to increase their profits over DVD players(which yields them very little these days). With Toshiba having three players below $500, and one above that amount, it leaves no one else but toshiba to make profits because the prices are so low already. Venturer has announced a cheaper standalone player than toshiba cheapest player, but everyone knows that player with be at the same quality as a Apex DVD player, and they have to sell millions of them to turn a decent profit overall. Onyko has to wonder if they are going to sell a decent amount of their players to turn a profit in a market so driven by low prices. As a constrast, every bluray player makes a manufacturer a nice profit. That is why player prices are higher, and there are many more manufacturers making bluray players. What all manufacturers WANT to see is a single format, which allows for quicker adoption, sells more players, and keeps profits high for a while.

3. Consumer are confused as hell with both formats. Nobody wants a brick if they choose the wrong format. So you buy nothing, and wait to see somebody else buy the brick. This slows down the adoption rate, and may just kill off both formats because of lack of sufficient sales.

4. Studio support is about even amoung the money makers. However right now catalog titles are not selling very well, and HD DVD has the most catalog titles released. Catalogs value will not materialize until after each format matures. So the big bucks come from day and date releases, which HD DVD will only have to majors up to the holiday season. Almost all of Bluray releases will be day and date with their DVD counterpart which should guarantee the format will do well over the holiday season. I know for a fact there will be no further movement this year by any studio, and quite frankly was surprised at Paramounts move. When I talk to my friends who work at the studio(I was an employee there for 10 years) in their home entertainment department, they too were surprised as well as they love working with bluray, and where preparing titles that had features unique to the format. This lets me know that the decision came from the parent company, and not Paramount itself no matter what is said in the press.

No matter what we think as consumers, we are not going to make the decision about who wins. That ultimately will be made by the Studios based on the sales performance of their titles. At this stage a Warner defection to Bluray would be the kiss of death to HD DVD. And with weekly sales ration very close to 2:1 favor for bluray, this christmas will be critical for both formats.

Based on the information that I have gleaned over the last year from a variety of sources both within the industry, and outside the industry, Bluray was MY choice. I bought my HD DVD player first, and collected 131 titles within 6 months. When I realized that all of the films that I really like are bluray exclusives I bought a PS3 based on my needs, its flexibility, upgradability, features and price. That was four months ago, and I have replaced 175 of my DVD titles with Bluray upgrades. So as you can see I am pretty invested in both at this stage. I have purchased bluray titles only in the last four months. I do plan on getting Transformers and Shrek the Third on HD DVD, but that is about it for this year. My pre-order list for bluray is up to 40 titles till the end of the year and growing by the week.

Based on overall support bluray has it all of the way. From the studios, to retail and manufacturing. They have so much support that in the long run I think it has the legs to win the war. That's just MY OPINION. This whole war has turn the internet AV sites into a polarizing mess, and has just made visiting so many sites a very unpleasant thing. I want it to end soon....sooner than yesterday, and quicker than tomorrow. Reality will not grant me my wish though.

[PeruvianSkies]

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

Yeah, well we have this little troll problem around here since you left months ago, so I am just doing my duty by spraying some troll repellent every now and again. My signature is from The Office. I agree this stupid war is NOT over no matter how many times Pixelthis says that it is. We are talking about two huge companies with loads of resources that are going to battle this out for several more rounds of this fight. And the crucial thing is that this is a war where the winner might not even be the one that offers the superior product, but the one that fought harder in the war.

[drseid]

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

1. In order to optimize video encoding for both formats encoding has to be done seperately. You could never use the encoding from Pirates of the Carribean on Bluray on HD DVD. The video bitrate goes way over HD DVD specifications. Now one could argue that VC-1 wouldn't need a bitrate over the HD DVD standard, but Disney would definately argue you down if you are looking for ultimate video transparency.

2. Retailers and manufacturers are pissed about this format war. Retail stores are forced to make room for both formats which digs into their money makers floor space. That would be DVD. Blockbuster, Best buy, Walmart, Target, have already decided that their floor space would be either mostly, or all dedicated to Bluray. I am sure before too long alot of other retailers will also make that decision. That is because profit margins are higher on bluray than on HD DVD. This is a mistake on the part of Toshiba's in that they raced their player prices to the bottom too quickly. Stores just do not make enough profit on their players to justify the shelf space so Toshiba has to buy encaps to make up for that fact. For Manufacturers, the whole object of HD players is to increase their profits over DVD players(which yields them very little these days). With Toshiba having three players below $500, and one above that amount, it leaves no one else but toshiba to make profits because the prices are so low already. Venturer has announced a cheaper standalone player than toshiba cheapest player, but everyone knows that player with be at the same quality as a Apex DVD player, and they have to sell millions of them to turn a decent profit overall.

3. Consumer are confused as hell with both formats. Nobody wants a brick if they choose the wrong format. So you buy nothing, and wait to see somebody else buy the brick. This slows down the adoption rate, and may just kill off both formats because of lack of sufficient sales.

4. Studio support is about even amoung the money makers. However right now catalog titles are not selling very well, and HD DVD has the most catalog titles released. Catalogs value will not materialize until after each format matures. So the big bucks come from day and date releases, which HD DVD will only have to majors up to the holiday season. Almost all of Bluray releases will be day and date with their DVD counterpart which should guarantee the format will do well over the holiday season. I know for a fact there will be no further movement this year by any studio, and quite frankly was surprised at Paramounts move. When I talk to my friends who work at the studio(I was an employee there for 10 years) in their home entertainment department, they too were surprised as well as they love working with bluray, and where preparing titles that had features unique to the format. This lets me know that the decision came from the parent company, and not Paramount itself no matter what is said in the press.

No matter what we think as consumers, we are not going to make the decision about who wins. That ultimately will be made by the Studios based on the sales performance of their titles. At this stage a Warner defection to Bluray would be the kiss of death to HD DVD. And with weekly sales ration very close to 2:1 favor for bluray, this christmas will be critical for both formats.

Based on the information that I have gleaned over the last year from a variety of sources both within the industry, and outside the industry, Bluray was MY choice.

Based on overall support bluray has it all of the way.

Good points Sir T...

Here are my responses (I shortened several of your quoted points to save space, but all your points were well argued in full...):

1. I think you can indeed have 1 encode for both (as WB has shown in many cases). VC-1 is the way to go, IMO. The reason why we don't is not because of optimal bitrates, but rather royalties for Sony. With duplicate VC-1 encodes, both formats will look equally good with no deterioration in quality for either from the "optimal" encodes Sony claims.

2. No argument on the retailers being pissed (I think we can add the consumers too)... As for the profit margins, I am also sure you are right in saying Blu-ray has a higher margin on standalones... they also have a smaller sell-through rate on these. Most folks using Blu-ray have bought the PS3, and that is hardly a margin king (although the games sure are).

As for Toshiba cutting off others from making a profit by lowering the cost of the players... Maybe you are right... But that has not stopped Venturer, nor has it stopped the new Chinese players from getting in on the game. I would not underestimate the power of low price with the average consumer. I think these Chinese players could be key to HD DVD's success (or failure). Once a certain market share potential is reached, the other players like Panasonic et al will jump on board and create higher quality players for video and audio enthusiasts... until then the Venturers of the world will get Joe6pack to come onboard.

3. I agree with the exception of killing off both formats. I am firmly in the camp that says both will be around for a *long* time to come. I don't see either dying off in the forseeable future.

4. While I too have gone on record as saying I was shocked at Paramount's move... I also confess to being quite happy at the news (as I am primarily in HD DVD's camp even though I own and buy both formats). In the case of Warner, I agree it would be a big blow to HD DVD if they went BR exclusive, but the word on the street is after the holidays, they are highly likely to go the other way. I would say it would be equally damaging to BR if this occured. I guess we will see, but I would not be shocked at all to see Warner firmly as an HD exclusive studio in January or February of next year (definitely not this year though). Personally if I were putting odds on a format having the upper hand based on studio support, I would now say HD DVD may have the upper hand. If Warner decides to stay neutral after the holidays, then we are in as much of a stalemate as we are in now.

I guess the bottom line is there are a lot of unknown variables right now. Way too many to call this either way. I believe both will coexist, but we shall see. This holiday season is key to answering many questions...

---Dave

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Good points Sir T...

Here are my responses (I shortened several of your quoted points to save space, but all your points were well argued in full...):

Go ahead, take a bite out of me. LOL

1. I think you can indeed have 1 encode for both (as WB has shown in many cases). VC-1 is the way to go, IMO. The reason why we don't is not because of optimal bitrates, but rather royalties for Sony. With duplicate VC-1 encodes, both formats will look equally good with no deterioration in quality for either from the "optimal" encodes Sony claims.

I do not think the bluray camp is convinced that VC-1 is all that. Sony, and I know Disney for sure really like AVC. I personally like AVC better based on a demo I attended at Buena Vista studios. The Disney engineers didn't seem all that impressed with VC-1 as they seem to think that VC-1 does too much smoothing after encoding. Also keep in mind that Microsoft get's royalties for VC-1 which why you probably will never see a Sony bluray product using VC-1. Disney likes to use high bitrates for their encoding as to them the picture seems more natural, and less digital looking. Microsoft seems to promote lower bitrates on VC-1, and that doesn't quite square with what Disney is looking for.

2. No argument on the retailers being pissed (I think we can add the consumers too)... As for the profit margins, I am also sure you are right in saying Blu-ray has a higher margin on standalones... they also have a smaller sell-through rate on these. Most folks using Blu-ray have bought the PS3, and that is hardly a margin king (although the games sure are).

That is a Sony issue only. From talking with Paidgeek from Bluray.com Sony is selling the PS3 to retailers so they make a small(very small) profit from the PS3. Sony appears to be taking the loss themselves. This is the reason retailers do not mind devoting a good size space for the PS3. If they didn't make a profit from it, then you would only see it offered on the retailers website, much like HD DVD players are on Walmarts and Targets but not in their stores. It seems lately that sales of standalones seems to be going bluray way as well. I think that its largely because of the visible floor space devoted to bluray as opposed to HD DVD.

As for Toshiba cutting off others from making a profit by lowering the cost of the players... Maybe you are right... But that has not stopped Venturer, nor has it stopped the new Chinese players from getting in on the game. I would not underestimate the power of low price with the average consumer. I think these Chinese players could be key to HD DVD's success (or failure). Once a certain market share potential is reached, the other players like Panasonic et al will jump on board and create higher quality players for video and audio enthusiasts... until then the Venturers of the world will get Joe6pack to come onboard.

I think anyone who has bought a cheap DVD player knows that the quality just isn't there. My best friend went through 4 apex DVD players in less than a year. He has stated no more cheap chinese players in his house. I have heard this from quite a few folks. So I do not really think cheap low quality players are going to be HD DVD saving grace, especially considering they do not have full studio support. A cheap player only makes sense when you can purchase movies from ALL of the studios. Keep in mind, HD DVD has always been cheaper than bluray, however a cheap price hasn't landed more players in the field versus bluray. Studio commitment is really VERY important when you use price as a talking point. At this point cheap chinese players are vaporware since there has been no official announcement of there release. The Venturers will NOT be sold in Walmart or Target, and unsure whether Best Buy will carry them. This makes it difficult to guage whether they will sell in sufficiently large numbers to make a difference this holiday season.

3. I agree with the exception of killing off both formats. I am firmly in the camp that says both will be around for a *long* time to come. I don't see either dying off in the forseeable future.

From my sources inside several studios make me believe differently. First, it is stupid to market two formats that essentially do the same thing. There is no history of any disc based media that do indentical things coexisting. When DVD was introduced, Laserdisc died very quickly. When beta and VHS slugged it out, the consumer chose VHS, and the pro's chose beta. Disney has already said they will not support both, Sony and Fox has also said the same. Not one studio has committed to long term support of both. I believe based on my sources that this holiday season will be critical for both camps. If the HD DVD camp sells as many players as predicted, you will see SOME studio's make a move. If bluray increases its sales lead beyond 2:1(well beyond) I know at least two studios will make a move in their direction.

4. While I too have gone on record as saying I was shocked at Paramount's move... I also confess to being quite happy at the news (as I am primarily in HD DVD's camp even though I own and buy both formats). In the case of Warner, I agree it would be a big blow to HD DVD if they went BR exclusive, but the word on the street is after the holidays, they are highly likely to go the other way. I would say it would be equally damaging to BR if this occured. I guess we will see, but I would not be shocked at all to see Warner firmly as an HD exclusive studio in January or February of next year (definitely not this year though). Personally if I were putting odds on a format having the upper hand based on studio support, I would now say HD DVD may have the upper hand. If Warner decides to stay neutral after the holidays, then we are in as much of a stalemate as we are in now.

I think your word on the streets is not accurate at all. Warner is making a profit doing both formats, but they are not going to commit to doing this long term. Warner is going to look at software sales to see where the most sales are made. Titles they have released to both formats already has shown to favor bluray at a 2:1 clip, 300 had a wider ratio and still selling well on bluray. Facts do not support your contention that HD DVD has the upper hand in studio support. When you look world wide, you will find more studio's support bluray than HD DVD, especially within the european market where there has been several studios that went neutral as a result of bluray's larger player base. Here in the states you have Sony, Disney, Fox and Lionsgate in the bluray camp exclusive. Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks exclusive to HD DVD. Weinstein and Warner are neutral. Paramount and Universal are somewhat hampered by the fact they cannot release any Steven Spielberg directed titles, or any titles produced solely by Amblin Pictures. This also goes for Cappola titles as well. If Steven becomes unhappy with the way Paramount is handling Dreamworks, he has the right to shop the studio around to other bidders. This is pretty binding for both studio as some big sales are lost in the agreement. HD DVD has no presence in Japan to speak of, little or none in Australia, and got killed in Europe over the past several months by the PS3 effect. Don't think the studio are not looking at world wide player penitration of players.

I would also like to add that it doesn't make much sense to pay Paramount $150 million dollars to quit supporting bluray if Warner intended on going HD DVD exclusive in 2008. They could have kept the money and gained a studio. This action tells me that someone in the HD DVD camp could be going neutral at the beginning of the year, not someone going exclusive to them. The fact that the HD DVD PG courted Warner with a rather large offer, and was rebuffed points to the fact that Warner doesn't want to leave a single dollar on the table.

I guess the bottom line is there are a lot of unknown variables right now. Way too many to call this either way. I believe both will coexist, but we shall see. This holiday season is key to answering many questions...

---Dave

Dave, you are correct. I however believe some things are taking shape that work towards deciding a winner. While I have a strong preference for bluray, I am not allowing my preference to cloud the facts, my knowledge of the industry I have worked in for 25 years, or my good common sense. In other words, I am not a rabid fanboy(or a unrabid one either LOL)

[bobsticks]

Good to see Sir T 'round these parts again.

I too have adopted the HD-DVD but will probably focus more on Blue-Ray. I became a bit disappointed by the overall selection and my XBOX's player needed updates to play certain titles (combo discs). I found both issues an annoyance.

I'm not ready to call the battle either. I will say that as an all-too-enthusiastic consumer I spend a fair amount of time in retail stores. I have yet to hear anyone comment on how overwhelmingly superior the HD-DVD catalogue was. I suspect the holidays may prove to be a huge push for Blue-Ray/PS3 hardware.

[drseid]

I do not think the bluray camp is convinced that VC-1 is all that. Sony, and I know Disney for sure really like AVC. Also keep in mind that Microsoft get's royalties for VC-1 which why you probably will never see a Sony bluray product using VC-1.


That is a Sony issue only. From talking with Paidgeek from Bluray.com Sony is selling the PS3 to retailers so they make a small(very small) profit from the PS3. Sony appears to be taking the loss themselves. It seems lately that sales of standalones seems to be going bluray way as well. I think that its largely because of the visible floor space devoted to bluray as opposed to HD DVD.



I think anyone who has bought a cheap DVD player knows that the quality just isn't there. Keep in mind, HD DVD has always been cheaper than bluray, however a cheap price hasn't landed more players in the field versus bluray. Studio commitment is really VERY important when you use price as a talking point. At this point cheap chinese players are vaporware since there has been no official announcement of there release. The Venturers will NOT be sold in Walmart or Target, and unsure whether Best Buy will carry them. This makes it difficult to guage whether they will sell in sufficiently large numbers to make a difference this holiday season.



I think your word on the streets is not accurate at all. Warner is making a profit doing both formats, but they are not going to commit to doing this long term. Warner is going to look at software sales to see where the most sales are made. Titles they have released to both formats already has shown to favor bluray at a 2:1 clip, 300 had a wider ratio and still selling well on bluray. Facts do not support your contention that HD DVD has the upper hand in studio support. When you look world wide, you will find more studio's support bluray than HD DVD, especially within the european market where there has been several studios that went neutral as a result of bluray's larger player base. Don't think the studio are not looking at world wide player penitration of players.

I would also like to add that it doesn't make much sense to pay Paramount $150 million dollars to quit supporting bluray if Warner intended on going HD DVD exclusive in 2008. They could have kept the money and gained a studio. This action tells me that someone in the HD DVD camp could be going neutral at the beginning of the year, not someone going exclusive to them. The fact that the HD DVD PG courted Warner with a rather large offer, and was rebuffed points to the fact that Warner doesn't want to leave a single dollar on the table.

Point taken on Microsoft and VC-1.... I disagree about its inferiority to any of the other encodes (and I personally prefer it to MPEG-2 unless a very high bitrate is used on a dual-layer BR disc). That said, I am sure HD DVD chose that for the same reason Sony chose MPEG-2 for BR... royalties. I doubt picture quality had much to do with it for either camp... although MPEG-2 would not work well for HD-DVD at all due to the lower disc layer space.

As for the PS3, I never claimed it was a loss leader for retailers. Rather I said it was no margin king, and I maintain that. The retailers make their money on the games (and so does Sony, for that matter).

As for the Venturer HD DVD player, I have heard differently about Walmart carrying it. I have heard they will indeed, and BB may (but it is not confirmed to the best of my knowledge). Target I am sure you are right when you say they are out, but I dont believe they have made any formal statement either.

In the case of Warner going to HD DVD exclusive, next year will let us know who is right, but I am highly confident I am on this one. They have always been a strong HD DVD supporter, and their jettisoning of a key person in charge of the dual format strategy only strengthens my belief here. Even many BR supporters on the boards are preparing for this. Of course it is all speculation until an announcement is made either way next year. Warner has gone on record saying that they have received offers from both sides... now they just need to decide what is in their best interest after the holiday season.

As for 300, it is a bad example sales comparison-wise IMO because the HD DVD was a combo disc that cost $5 more than the BR. I, like most others who loathe combo discs (at a higher price point) always will buy the BR version of a title when they offer the HD DVD that way. I personally believe the combo disc is not long for this world... terrible idea, IMO unless the pricing is the same. Warner and others have to know this by now.

As for Worldwide... China is the big fish, and with CH DVD, they have in essence decided to support HD DVD as the players are compatible with the format (and the reverse appears true as well for US sales). It is true they are vaporware right *now*, but come later this year in China, and next year in the US they will not be. Again, I maintain Joe6pack will indeed buy these cheap players -- especially at a sub $100 street price point. They may complain about the cheap quality in time, but in the short-run it will equate to market penetration for HD DVD (or so I believe) as it will be an inexpensive way to not only play their DVDs, but HD DVDs as well for the studios that offer them.

The BR player lead on standalone players is for a month, and I am quite confident it will be short-lived if not already gone by now... that said, I could be wrong. Again, only time will tell if this is a short-lived anomaly as I believe, or a trend as you do... We shall see.

Lots of fun ahead for both formats... I am still angry that the two sides could not come to an agreement in the first place like most (I too remember VHS vs. Beta and was on the Beta side), but as things stand now I don't think either side is in a position to even consider declaring victory in the forseeable future.

---Dave

[Groundbeef]

That is a Sony issue only. From talking with Paidgeek from Bluray.com Sony is selling the PS3 to retailers so they make a small(very small) profit from the PS3. Sony appears to be taking the loss themselves. This is the reason retailers do not mind devoting a good size space for the PS3. If they didn't make a profit from it, then you would only see it offered on the retailers website, much like HD DVD players are on Walmarts and Targets but not in their stores.

Can't really argue the rest of your points because I really don't know enough to argue either way.

However, this particular point needs some clarification. I am friends with both a manager at BB, and a friend who is a manager of a GameStop store. Hardware sales account for very little profit. We are talking maybe $5-10 per console. Thats for the console. Retailers don't make much if anything on them. Thats why they try to load you up on games, accessories, and the extended warrenty. This is for both the PS3 and the XBOX 360.

So, its not really true that small profit dictates shelf space entirely. Retailers are probably making at least the $5-10 per console on a dedicated HD-DVD player.

[nightflier]

First, it is stupid to market two formats that essentially do the same thing. There is no history of any disc based media that do indentical things coexisting.

Well I'd mention Intel & AMD, but those aren't exactly disks. But if we have to limit it to disk wars, isn't wat you describe exactly how the SACD & DVD-A feud unfolded? And some brick-owning die-hards would argue, it still rages on. If I remember right (thanks bobsticks for reminding us), DVD-A came late to the party, eventually had the larger catalog, including more hit/modern titles, more shelf-space in the stores, more support with disk-player manufacturers, and well, they just about fizzled out, now. All the while, SACD, like the proverbial turtle racing the hare, slowly but surely won the race (if you can call it a win). This recent scenario should be reason enough to remind us that format wars, like tribal conflicts, don't always end quickly or completely.

By the way, there are currently 3453 laserdisks for sale on eBay, including over 300 new ones.

Sir T., I certainly respect your insight into this industry and I can't argue against the numbers. But I've also learned that sudden changes, shifts, and product announcements can make a huge difference in volatile markets. What if there was an embarrassing corporate scandal at Sony or Disney? What if Microsoft software all of a sudden stopped working with BR disks because of some "bug"? Or how about if Venturer or another Chinese manufacturer made a cheap BR player instead, and it was a real hit, sent BR player sales tumbling and Panasonic and Samsung were to throw in the towel instead?

I know it's a stretch but it could happen. Or how about this one, and I'm really just shooting in the dark here - wild speculation at best - a new war were to suddenly start somewhere in the world and it affected transportation, production, or the financial markets? I mean, I'm really reaching for straws here, but let's just presume for the sake of argument, that such a wild, distant possibility would just happen to affect, oh, I dunno, electronic sales over the holiday season?

Anyhow, what I'm trying to say is that:

1. Format wars don't always end suddenly,
2. A lead in one format, however large or apparent, can always change,
3. Seemingly unrelated events, especially sudden ones, can dramatically change markets.

Hence the reason that most of the buying public is just going to wait this one out. And the real danger for both formats and the companies that support them, is that a third option emerges and makes the former two obsolete. That third option, IMO, is HD downloads.