Quote Originally Posted by nightflier
Well I'd mention Intel & AMD, but those aren't exactly disks. But if we have to limit it to disk wars, isn't wat you describe exactly how the SACD & DVD-A feud unfolded? And some brick-owning die-hards would argue, it still rages on. If I remember right (thanks bobsticks for reminding us), DVD-A came late to the party, eventually had the larger catalog, including more hit/modern titles, more shelf-space in the stores, more support with disk-player manufacturers, and well, they just about fizzled out, now. All the while, SACD, like the proverbial turtle racing the hare, slowly but surely won the race (if you can call it a win). This recent scenario should be reason enough to remind us that format wars, like tribal conflicts, don't always end quickly or completely.
No comparison to SACD and DVD-A. Both formats were stillborn at birth. SACD was because there were no post processing tools for either the studio, on in the players. Secondly it didn't have the support of the major record companies, and that goes for DVD-A as well. DVD-A didn't do well because they couldn't deliver 24/96khz multichannel on a consistant basis, and often what was sold didn't sound any better than CD, but just added surround. Neither was easy to hookup to anyone's receiver because of copy protection. Thirdly, the consumer wants and wanted mobile audio, audio they could put on a pocket player and run. Neither audio format could do this.
HD DVD and Bluray do have industry support and can be hooked up to all current receivers. Apples and oranges comparison.

I think you are under the impression that one camp has to fold up and blow away for the other to win. Nope, that is not the case. One will be the dominate format and will continue to grow. The other will not disappear overnight, but it will not get the best titles, and from a studio perspective will not be well supported. Players may continue to sell to play disc already purchased, but it will not grow. That could play out for years even with the war officially over. The studios want this war over, the manufacturers want this war over, and to spir consumer interest in HDM on disc, this war has to be over quickly before the public is totally turned off.

By the way, there are currently 3453 laserdisks for sale on eBay, including over 300 new ones.
And not a single player manufactured in 10 years, which is why there are 3453 laserdisc for sale.

Sir T., I certainly respect your insight into this industry and I can't argue against the numbers. But I've also learned that sudden changes, shifts, and product announcements can make a huge difference in volatile markets. What if there was an embarrassing corporate scandal at Sony or Disney? What if Microsoft software all of a sudden stopped working with BR disks because of some "bug"? Or how about if Venturer or another Chinese manufacturer made a cheap BR player instead, and it was a real hit, sent BR player sales tumbling and Panasonic and Samsung were to throw in the towel instead?
A corporate scandal at Sony or Disney is not going to change their market strategy, or their support of Bluray. It would take the collaspe of the entire bluray superstructure to do that(you can throw Fox in as well). Microsoft does not have a single finger in the bluray camp, so the real question is What if HDi suddenly stopped working in HD DVD players because of bugs in the software? There are several chinese manufacturers that will be making bluray players in the future. They were welcomed into the BDA already. Have cheap chinese DVD players stop Panasonic and Samsung from making DVD players?

I know it's a stretch but it could happen. Or how about this one, and I'm really just shooting in the dark here - wild speculation at best - a new war were to suddenly start somewhere in the world and it affected transportation, production, or the financial markets? I mean, I'm really reaching for straws here, but let's just presume for the sake of argument, that such a wild, distant possibility would just happen to affect, oh, I dunno, electronic sales over the holiday season?
The all sales of electronics would suffer, but it wouldn't stop either camp at this point from pushing their format

Anyhow, what I'm trying to say is that:

1. Format wars don't always end suddenly,
2. A lead in one format, however large or apparent, can always change,
3. Seemingly unrelated events, especially sudden ones, can dramatically change markets.

Hence the reason that most of the buying public is just going to wait this one out. And the real danger for both formats and the companies that support them, is that a third option emerges and makes the former two obsolete. That third option, IMO, is HD downloads.
1. I understand, and have never stated that this war would end suddenly. However the war does not have to suddenly end for a victor to emerge.

2. When a industry(the studios) decide who they want to support, there is no change. See DIVX vs regular DVD on that one. Once the studios choose regular DVD, DIVX died never to return.

3. These same events would harm EVERYONE, not just bluray or HD DVD.

The infrastructure for downloads is a looooong way off. Industry survey's already indicated movie downloads already are losing steam. For HD movies the internet would have to be faster with no bottlenecks, consumer would have to have several terabytes of storage, and a way to get it there. Downloads would have to be able to offer 1080p, seemless branching, PIP, and be able to handle VERY large file sizes. It will be quite a few years before that happens. Whatever format is left standing has plenty of years to mature.

I think most of the public is waiting this out because there is no full studio support for either format, and software prices are still too high. I do not think player prices play too much into this because DVD prices were still quite high at this point in their history, and people were buying them left and right.

I am not dismissing your points. However these points have already been argued ad naseum over the last six or so months.