As reported by BDA & news from IFA

[Mr Peabody]

BDA says that Blu-ray software is out selling HD-DVD by 67% in the U.S. and by higher numbers worldwide.

According to reports from IFA Warner did not attend the HD-DVD press conference but did attend BDA's. Warner vowed to put out more Blu-ray titles in the 4th quarter than they did in the previously 3 quarters combined. Wow, could this tip the scales back from the Paramount buy off?

Hitachi has a Blu-ray camcorder hitting in October.

Acer has joined the BDA.

HD-DVD landed a solid blow but it seems Blu-ray wasn't stunned. I hope if you all find other news on the war, for either side, you will contribute. I hate to keep starting new threads on this but we really don't have any way to compile the various news bits and I don't want pertinent info buried in an already started thread.

[Woochifer]

I think Warner just had more to announce with their Blu-ray plans, since speculation has been running rampant regarding their future HD plans. For one thing, they still have a lot of titles already out on HD-DVD that have not yet come out on Blu-ray.

Just yesterday, a LA Times article on the format war caused all sorts of buzzing around the various home theater discussions because it implied that Toshiba's discussing financial terms to lure Warner into dropping Blu-ray and going HD-DVD exclusive. Today though, Bill Hunt of The Digital Bits confirmed with a Warner Home Video rep that the LA Times info is three weeks old. Apparently, Toshiba entered into discussions with Warner at the same time they were talking to Paramount/Dreamworks. Paramount/Dreamworks took Toshiba's offer, while Warner rejected it.

I think Warner still sees more benefit to playing both sides, and they still have their TotalHD hybrid disc introduction coming up next year. If Warner drops Blu-ray, then they would also wind up dumping their own proprietary hybrid format before it even comes to market and give up a significant portion of their current 40% share of the HD disc market. At this point, I think Warner sees more dollar signs by steering the market towards a hybrid solution, since they would be in position to collect licensing fees from every disc sold if major studios wind up adopting the TotalHD format as a compromise.

You want speculation? How about Warner partnering up with Universal, Fox, and/or Disney in support of TotalHD? That could potentially ice the format war, and put considerable pressure on Paramount/Dreamworks and even Sony to drop their exclusivity. I think Warner's got their own plans cooking, and they know that they hold a lot of sway as to which direction this format war goes.

Some other Blu-ray news that came out of IFA included JVC displaying their Blu-ray prototype, and Sharp introducing their own Blu-ray player that they will market under the AQUOS label (the first non-LCD TV product that will be marketed as part of the AQUOS lineup). The Sharp player looks interesting because apparently, they designed and built most of the internal components themselves, and one of the features of that player is a 10-second menu boot-up time.

[nightflier]

Some other Blu-ray news that came out of IFA included JVC displaying their Blu-ray prototype, and Sharp introducing their own Blu-ray player that they will market under the AQUOS label (the first non-LCD TV product that will be marketed as part of the AQUOS lineup). The Sharp player looks interesting because apparently, they designed and built most of the internal components themselves, and one of the features of that player is a 10-second menu boot-up time.

First of all, I want to tip my hat to Sharp for being the first company to address the single most annoying problem with either HD format: long boot ups. If I wanted to wait that long, I'd watch the #$@%$# movie on my computer!

I think if Sharp markets their player with the Aquos name, they will have a huge advantage. Almost every review about the Aquos displays is positive (with the exception of the banding issue). What this means is that they will bring a player to market with a name that is already associated with performance, quality, and high-fi. Equally important is that every Aquos TV owner will want the associated Aquos player. If they offer a feature that gives the combo a performance advantage over competing players (maybe a true HDMI 1.3 link between the two?), then they will also provide a real advantage to their loyal customers.

Now if that player also includes SACD playback, I'll get off the fence and buy one too!

[pixelthis]

First of all, I want to tip my hat to Sharp for being the first company to address the single most annoying problem with either HD format: long boot ups. If I wanted to wait that long, I'd watch the #$@%$# movie on my computer!

I think if Sharp markets their player with the Aquos name, they will have a huge advantage. Almost every review about the Aquos displays is positive (with the exception of the banding issue). What this means is that they will bring a player to market with a name that is already associated with performance, quality, and high-fi. Equally important is that every Aquos TV owner will want the associated Aquos player. If they offer a feature that gives the combo a performance advantage over competing players (maybe a true HDMI 1.3 link between the two?), then they will also provide a real advantage to their loyal customers.

Now if that player also includes SACD playback, I'll get off the fence and buy one too!

Thats what you're doing, basically.
Every DVD , and now HD players, are basically computers.
A lot of the super cheap DVD players have computer dvd play only drives, not much market for those now that dvd burners are so cheap.
Anyway, wonder just how much more bad news the HDDVD camp will have to get before
they finally accept the inevitable.
I bet Toshiba has already figured it out, they are just trying to squeak out of their self created mess with as many fingers and toes as possible

[Mr Peabody]

I wonder how the hybrid will work, will it have BR on one side and HD-DVD on the other? Will the hybrid have any effect on the storage capability which is BR's one big benefit? I personally would love to see them put out the hybrid and all the studios jump on it. That way no consumer will lose. It would be a miracle for any of the big corps to yield to their greed and give up the exclusivity but think of the good will. The hybrid could be the one time the consumer might actually win.

[musicman1999]

Nice idea but would they let us win one.I wonder if there would be a problem with thickness of the discs like the DualDisc seemed to have.

bill

[PeruvianSkies]

Nice idea but would they let us win one.I wonder if there would be a problem with thickness of the discs like the DualDisc seemed to have.

bill

Those damn DualDiscs...they were so quirky on any machine I put them into.

[Mr Peabody]

It's interesting that Sharp, Samsung & Toshiba were known as cheap or entry level gear until putting out high quality TV's. Now will the quality spill over into the rest of the products.

Sharp has the most to prove in my book. Maybe this BR player will be the step in the right direction.

I had my doubts about Samsung. Their first upscaling DVD players weren't that great but I've been impressed with their BR player. I'm miffed they don't answer their emails though.

Toshiba, I don't know about. I haven't heard anything negative about the HD-DVD players reliability.

I think the BR loading issue is blown out of proportion carried over from the first gen players. Compared to my Denon 1600, the Samsung BD-P1200 is just as fast.

[nightflier]

Pixel, just as I told Wooch, this isn't over by a long shot - calling one side the winner is only bellowing on the flames of war, right at a time that there could be a breakthrough in both sides working together on a dual-format. For the consumer, that is still the preferable option.

What is remarkable is that neither Toshiba nor Microsoft is throwing in the towel. And they certainly have a lot of people working for them to give them info that we simple folk don't have - maybe they know something we don't. I expect this format war to carry on for some time and maybe even until both formats are eclipsed by something else like HD downloads.

Right now, it looks like BR is going to follow in the footsteps of SACD and HD-DVD the path of DVD-A. But at this point, both formats are such a small portion of the overall movie sales market, that a reversal is still quite possible without upsetting the industry too much. We can't discount the price-advantage that HD-DVD has, and this could be crucial - if the price difference also becomes a factor in the individual disks, it could very well pull ahead. Or what if one of the major studios shifted sides suddenly? It's not like there isn't a lot of shifting going on, right now.

Bottom line, anything is still possible because both formats are still marginal.

[Mr Peabody]

Toshiba's cheap price hasn't seemed to help them thus far. It's true though, we have no idea what is being worked on, and the war isn't over until it's over.

[pixelthis]

Toshiba's cheap price hasn't seemed to help them thus far. It's true though, we have no idea what is being worked on, and the war isn't over until it's over.

Its over.
Be great if both could surrive, more choices for the consumer, but there really is no reason to have two HD dvd DISCS.
A hybrid player would be easy, probably just have to refocus the laser for the thicker
coating on the HDDVD, but theres really no reason for such a thing.
People with HDDVD will join those with DIVIX and Cartrigevision, and laserdisc
(Ihave several thousand thousand dollars worth of those)
On the bright side you wont have spent too much on your player and software.
So its a good thing that this format war be over early.
HDDVD is a dinosaur, and that light over the horizon is where the asteroid hit

[PeruvianSkies]

Its over.
Be great if both could surrive, more choices for the consumer, but there really is no reason to have two HD dvd DISCS.
A hybrid player would be easy, probably just have to refocus the laser for the thicker
coating on the HDDVD, but theres really no reason for such a thing.
People with HDDVD will join those with DIVIX and Cartrigevision, and laserdisc
(Ihave several thousand thousand dollars worth of those)
On the bright side you wont have spent too much on your player and software.
So its a good thing that this format war be over early.
HDDVD is a dinosaur, and that light over the horizon is where the asteroid hit

If it's over, then why is it still going on? I've been rooting for Blu-ray since the beginning, just 'cause it sounds cooler, but now I am almost tempted to wish for HD-DVD to win, just to shut you up.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

If it's over, then why is it still going on? I've been rooting for Blu-ray since the beginning, just 'cause it sounds cooler, but now I am almost tempted to wish for HD-DVD to win, just to shut you up.

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

1. In order to optimize video encoding for both formats encoding has to be done seperately. Doing this is very expensive, and one of the reasons Paramount went to HD DVD exclusive recently. It was the cheaper of the two platforms to encode and replicate for. In the short run this was a wise decision as this limits their exposure to HDM cost wise while the market is still pretty small. In the long run it is a huge mistake because you leave income from the largest player base on the table. The peak bitrates of both formats are not the same. You could never use the encoding from Pirates of the Carribean on Bluray on HD DVD. The video bitrate goes way over HD DVD specifications. Now one could argue that VC-1 wouldn't need a bitrate over the HD DVD standard, but Disney would definately argue you down if you are looking for ultimate video transparency.

2. Retailers and manufacturers are pissed about this format war. Retail stores are forced to make room for both formats which digs into their money makers floor space. That would be DVD. Blockbuster, Best buy, Walmart, Target, have already decided that their floor space would be either mostly, or all dedicated to Bluray. I am sure before too long alot of other retailers will also make that decision. That is because profit margins are higher on bluray than on HD DVD. This is a mistake on the part of Toshiba's in that they raced their player prices to the bottom too quickly. Stores just do not make enough profit on their players to justify the shelf space so Toshiba has to buy encaps to make up for that fact. For Manufacturers, the whole object of HD players is to increase their profits over DVD players(which yields them very little these days). With Toshiba having three players below $500, and one above that amount, it leaves no one else but toshiba to make profits because the prices are so low already. Venturer has announced a cheaper standalone player than toshiba cheapest player, but everyone knows that player with be at the same quality as a Apex DVD player, and they have to sell millions of them to turn a decent profit overall. Onyko has to wonder if they are going to sell a decent amount of their players to turn a profit in a market so driven by low prices. As a constrast, every bluray player makes a manufacturer a nice profit. That is why player prices are higher, and there are many more manufacturers making bluray players. What all manufacturers WANT to see is a single format, which allows for quicker adoption, sells more players, and keeps profits high for a while.

3. Consumer are confused as hell with both formats. Nobody wants a brick if they choose the wrong format. So you buy nothing, and wait to see somebody else buy the brick. This slows down the adoption rate, and may just kill off both formats because of lack of sufficient sales.

4. Studio support is about even amoung the money makers. However right now catalog titles are not selling very well, and HD DVD has the most catalog titles released. Catalogs value will not materialize until after each format matures. So the big bucks come from day and date releases, which HD DVD will only have to majors up to the holiday season. Almost all of Bluray releases will be day and date with their DVD counterpart which should guarantee the format will do well over the holiday season. I know for a fact there will be no further movement this year by any studio, and quite frankly was surprised at Paramounts move. When I talk to my friends who work at the studio(I was an employee there for 10 years) in their home entertainment department, they too were surprised as well as they love working with bluray, and where preparing titles that had features unique to the format. This lets me know that the decision came from the parent company, and not Paramount itself no matter what is said in the press.

No matter what we think as consumers, we are not going to make the decision about who wins. That ultimately will be made by the Studios based on the sales performance of their titles. At this stage a Warner defection to Bluray would be the kiss of death to HD DVD. And with weekly sales ration very close to 2:1 favor for bluray, this christmas will be critical for both formats.

Based on the information that I have gleaned over the last year from a variety of sources both within the industry, and outside the industry, Bluray was MY choice. I bought my HD DVD player first, and collected 131 titles within 6 months. When I realized that all of the films that I really like are bluray exclusives I bought a PS3 based on my needs, its flexibility, upgradability, features and price. That was four months ago, and I have replaced 175 of my DVD titles with Bluray upgrades. So as you can see I am pretty invested in both at this stage. I have purchased bluray titles only in the last four months. I do plan on getting Transformers and Shrek the Third on HD DVD, but that is about it for this year. My pre-order list for bluray is up to 40 titles till the end of the year and growing by the week.

Based on overall support bluray has it all of the way. From the studios, to retail and manufacturing. They have so much support that in the long run I think it has the legs to win the war. That's just MY OPINION. This whole war has turn the internet AV sites into a polarizing mess, and has just made visiting so many sites a very unpleasant thing. I want it to end soon....sooner than yesterday, and quicker than tomorrow. Reality will not grant me my wish though.

[PeruvianSkies]

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

Yeah, well we have this little troll problem around here since you left months ago, so I am just doing my duty by spraying some troll repellent every now and again. My signature is from The Office. I agree this stupid war is NOT over no matter how many times Pixelthis says that it is. We are talking about two huge companies with loads of resources that are going to battle this out for several more rounds of this fight. And the crucial thing is that this is a war where the winner might not even be the one that offers the superior product, but the one that fought harder in the war.

[drseid]

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

1. In order to optimize video encoding for both formats encoding has to be done seperately. You could never use the encoding from Pirates of the Carribean on Bluray on HD DVD. The video bitrate goes way over HD DVD specifications. Now one could argue that VC-1 wouldn't need a bitrate over the HD DVD standard, but Disney would definately argue you down if you are looking for ultimate video transparency.

2. Retailers and manufacturers are pissed about this format war. Retail stores are forced to make room for both formats which digs into their money makers floor space. That would be DVD. Blockbuster, Best buy, Walmart, Target, have already decided that their floor space would be either mostly, or all dedicated to Bluray. I am sure before too long alot of other retailers will also make that decision. That is because profit margins are higher on bluray than on HD DVD. This is a mistake on the part of Toshiba's in that they raced their player prices to the bottom too quickly. Stores just do not make enough profit on their players to justify the shelf space so Toshiba has to buy encaps to make up for that fact. For Manufacturers, the whole object of HD players is to increase their profits over DVD players(which yields them very little these days). With Toshiba having three players below $500, and one above that amount, it leaves no one else but toshiba to make profits because the prices are so low already. Venturer has announced a cheaper standalone player than toshiba cheapest player, but everyone knows that player with be at the same quality as a Apex DVD player, and they have to sell millions of them to turn a decent profit overall.

3. Consumer are confused as hell with both formats. Nobody wants a brick if they choose the wrong format. So you buy nothing, and wait to see somebody else buy the brick. This slows down the adoption rate, and may just kill off both formats because of lack of sufficient sales.

4. Studio support is about even amoung the money makers. However right now catalog titles are not selling very well, and HD DVD has the most catalog titles released. Catalogs value will not materialize until after each format matures. So the big bucks come from day and date releases, which HD DVD will only have to majors up to the holiday season. Almost all of Bluray releases will be day and date with their DVD counterpart which should guarantee the format will do well over the holiday season. I know for a fact there will be no further movement this year by any studio, and quite frankly was surprised at Paramounts move. When I talk to my friends who work at the studio(I was an employee there for 10 years) in their home entertainment department, they too were surprised as well as they love working with bluray, and where preparing titles that had features unique to the format. This lets me know that the decision came from the parent company, and not Paramount itself no matter what is said in the press.

No matter what we think as consumers, we are not going to make the decision about who wins. That ultimately will be made by the Studios based on the sales performance of their titles. At this stage a Warner defection to Bluray would be the kiss of death to HD DVD. And with weekly sales ration very close to 2:1 favor for bluray, this christmas will be critical for both formats.

Based on the information that I have gleaned over the last year from a variety of sources both within the industry, and outside the industry, Bluray was MY choice.

Based on overall support bluray has it all of the way.

Good points Sir T...

Here are my responses (I shortened several of your quoted points to save space, but all your points were well argued in full...):

1. I think you can indeed have 1 encode for both (as WB has shown in many cases). VC-1 is the way to go, IMO. The reason why we don't is not because of optimal bitrates, but rather royalties for Sony. With duplicate VC-1 encodes, both formats will look equally good with no deterioration in quality for either from the "optimal" encodes Sony claims.

2. No argument on the retailers being pissed (I think we can add the consumers too)... As for the profit margins, I am also sure you are right in saying Blu-ray has a higher margin on standalones... they also have a smaller sell-through rate on these. Most folks using Blu-ray have bought the PS3, and that is hardly a margin king (although the games sure are).

As for Toshiba cutting off others from making a profit by lowering the cost of the players... Maybe you are right... But that has not stopped Venturer, nor has it stopped the new Chinese players from getting in on the game. I would not underestimate the power of low price with the average consumer. I think these Chinese players could be key to HD DVD's success (or failure). Once a certain market share potential is reached, the other players like Panasonic et al will jump on board and create higher quality players for video and audio enthusiasts... until then the Venturers of the world will get Joe6pack to come onboard.

3. I agree with the exception of killing off both formats. I am firmly in the camp that says both will be around for a *long* time to come. I don't see either dying off in the forseeable future.

4. While I too have gone on record as saying I was shocked at Paramount's move... I also confess to being quite happy at the news (as I am primarily in HD DVD's camp even though I own and buy both formats). In the case of Warner, I agree it would be a big blow to HD DVD if they went BR exclusive, but the word on the street is after the holidays, they are highly likely to go the other way. I would say it would be equally damaging to BR if this occured. I guess we will see, but I would not be shocked at all to see Warner firmly as an HD exclusive studio in January or February of next year (definitely not this year though). Personally if I were putting odds on a format having the upper hand based on studio support, I would now say HD DVD may have the upper hand. If Warner decides to stay neutral after the holidays, then we are in as much of a stalemate as we are in now.

I guess the bottom line is there are a lot of unknown variables right now. Way too many to call this either way. I believe both will coexist, but we shall see. This holiday season is key to answering many questions...

---Dave

[Mr Peabody]

I just think the dual discs would be a good compromise and it would be nice if no consumer had to lose this time. Just because people have laser discs, DVD-A, Mini disc, or whatever, is no reason this type of penalty has to continue to be paid by early adoptors who happens to choose the wrong format.

[nightflier]

I know this has been said before, but I for one am pissed that I can't buy any title on either format. That's why I'm still exclusively on DVD. I can buy any title and I know it will play on my player. Heck, if it's still a stalemate in January 2008, I might just buy that Oppo upconverting DVD player, rather than take my chances with a "brick."

I'm going to guess that 90% of consumers, like myself, are irritated enough at this war that they will wait this out for quite some time. Given how people have less to spend today than they have in a long time, they will probably wonder if they really need to make the move to HD or BR, even over the x-mas season. If a studio is going to make a move, they better do it before the holidays.

[pixelthis]

I know this has been said before, but I for one am pissed that I can't buy any title on either format. That's why I'm still exclusively on DVD. I can buy any title and I know it will play on my player. Heck, if it's still a stalemate in January 2008, I might just buy that Oppo upconverting DVD player, rather than take my chances with a "brick."

I'm going to guess that 90% of consumers, like myself, are irritated enough at this war that they will wait this out for quite some time. Given how people have less to spend today than they have in a long time, they will probably wonder if they really need to make the move to HD or BR, even over the x-mas season. If a studio is going to make a move, they better do it before the holidays.

That option is looking better and better every day.
Either blu or hddvd, both formats are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, and while an "upconverting" player won't increase resolution they tend to have a pretty good
picture.
After christmas toshiba will assess and fold.
This isn't like an audio format, there are hugh costs to mounting a video format.
Most in the industry and have decided on Blu-ray, and it will be the winner.
If you want to invest in one Blu is a safe bet, EVERYBODY is backing this one,
and it will be obvious even to self appointed "troll killer" with the thick skull that its pretty much over for HDDVD(TROLL defined as anyone who disagrees with him, BTW)

[Mr Peabody]

Warner announced at the BDA press conference during IFA that they plan to release more Blu-ray titles in the 4th quarter of this year than the previous 3 quarters put together. This doesn't seem like a move made by a company about to dump a format.

At first I didn't think the Chinese HD-DVD cheapos would make a difference but then when you look at the price of most entry level DVD players today, you can get a name brand for under $200.00. But price has surprisingly not played a big factor in the war.

[PeruvianSkies]

Here comes words of shear wisdom....

[PeruvianSkies]

Here comes words of shear wisdom....

....or not. Seems that someone doesn't know the definition of the word TROLL.

FROM WIKIPEDIA
An Internet troll, or simply troll in Internet slang, is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an online community such as an online discussion forum or USENET, with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response.[1]

You know like saying that my speakers are junk and that my system is poor, etc etc. Or saying that Blu-ray has already won or that LCD is superior to anything else, etc etc.

[pixelthis]

....or not. Seems that someone doesn't know the definition of the word TROLL.

FROM WIKIPEDIA
An Internet troll, or simply troll in Internet slang, is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an online community such as an online discussion forum or USENET, with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response.[1]

You know like saying that my speakers are junk and that my system is poor, etc etc. Or saying that Blu-ray has already won or that LCD is superior to anything else, etc etc.

You see, this shows your basic lack of understanding of the English language.
I said that LCD will be the display standard, that it will replace the CRT as the main
type of display, and in many respects that has already happened.
Doesn't mean its better, just means its more popular.
VHS sucked compared to BETA, still won its "format war".
Audiophiles and videophiles go for something called "PQ", they are the ONLY ones who do.
Why do you think that in the mall 90% of the stores are shoe and clothes stores?
And that most cater to women?
Because they control the purse strings, and as long as they think "flat panels" are stylish, nothing else will have much of a chance.
As for quality LCD does have a decent picture, the differences in quality with other type displays are small.
And I never said that your system was "junk", just that you were rather ignorant of certain realities that shaped the construction of your gear,
and like most in this hobby these days, the quality of your gear was rather unbalanced.
Its a waste of money for "rich in texas" to be running B&W speakers with a low to midline receiver, he'd be better off with a cheaper set,
because the potential of his speakers aren't being realized, so why pay for it?
Likewise the price range of some of your gear is rather disparete, if you are on a long upgrade path, great, some of your nicer stuff is waiting to
"catch up" with upgrades in other areas.
But I think that you would be better served with equipment more closely matched is all.
You're wasting potential if a neat piece of gear is matched to lower line stuff, and you are still paying for that potential.
So why pay for what you're not using?
SPEAKERS are the most important part of a system, should cost as much as the other stuff combined, at least.
But if your prices are correct than you don't have near enough speaker for ten grand worth of gear.
But that is just my OPINON after all (don't wanna be labeled a Troll or something)

[PeruvianSkies]

You see, this shows your basic lack of understanding of the English language.
I said that LCD will be the display standard, that it will replace the CRT as the main
type of display, and in many respects that has already happened.
Doesn't mean its better, just means its more popular.
VHS sucked compared to BETA, still won its "format war".
Audiophiles and videophiles go for something called "PQ", they are the ONLY ones who do.
Why do you think that in the mall 90% of the stores are shoe and clothes stores?
And that most cater to women?

Please enlighten me on the English language.

[Mr Peabody]

Al Gore built this internet and he will build the new one too! I'm sure he already has the new one ready, he is just waiting for the right time.

[nightflier]

Sir T.,

I think your perspective might be a little too focused on the inside of the industry. For example, what happened behind the scenes with SACD & DVD-A is not at all what the consumer was privy to. I personally saw the selection of both formats increase in the stores, and catalogs like Acoustic Sounds get thicker and the number of players on store shelves grow. As someone who picked SACD after quite a bit of research, you can imagine my reaction when I saw the DVD-A selection outpace SACD. Likewise there was a lot of buzz online and in the trade rags about the new formats and how superior they were. The concept of the perfect storm was from an article in Sound & Vision, I believe.

Likewise the assumption that PCs were shipped with Windows pre-installed is only part of the picture. It may have been what was reported in the industry, but ten years ago, most PCs were home-built or shipped without an OS. DOS or Windows was a separate line item on the receipts (I know, I still have them). The rise in cassette popularity, whether for cars or not, was because it allowed people to copy LPs and other original cassettes so that they can be played elsewhere. This freedom is what is being taken away and is what is angering consumer.

"We don't live in that world anymore"? That's not true at all. Copy protection is not a fact of life, just look at why apple was pressured into removing DRM from so many of their downloads. People were pissed. Copy protection is not "here to stay" if people won't pay for the copy protected products. It is actually a huge irritation to people who want to have their music and movies in another format. People are ripping the commentaries and extra languages out of movies because they need to fit them on their iPods.

Copy protection is like a loose condom, a little vaseline and it falls appart. The Great Wall of China worked for about ten years or so, until the Mongol hordes figured out they could just walk around it. If there is one consistent truth about security, it is that it will be defeated. DVD's were cracked by some guy who just wanted to watch them on his Linux box. He was irritated by the fact that the license and the studios would not allow this, so he found a way around the "wall." And the jackals of the movie industry, the MPAA, tried to crucify him. One commentator said he should get the death penalty (well we know who butters his bread). All these abuses are a source of anger and frustration by the consumers. Think this is bad here in the US? Try asking someone in Europe what they think of Sony or Disney or Fox.

The same restrictions that existed on SACD/DVD-A now exist with HD-DVD/BR. The consumer can't copy it, move it to his iPhone, or to his SUV so his kids will be quiet. And if it just takes too much time to walk around a big enough obstacle, people eventually give up - not because they can't but because there are other options. HD movies are in grave risk of becoming niche technologies, much like SACD and Laserdisks. They are being threatened by downloaded non-HD content today and will be eclipsed by true HD content in a few short years because people will have become accustomed to the process during the non-HD period.

And HD isn't all that important. For all the extra goodies that BR & HD-DVD have to offer, for most people, it's pointless. Do you think Joe Sixpack, although perfectly happy with his HDTV to watch SundayTicket, is going to say: "hmmm, tonight I think I'll watch Bridges Of Madison County in French - might be fun..." No! It's all bloatware. You & I and the rest of the audio-videophiles here might Ooo and Ahhh over true DTS or 1080p, but our teen-age kids have no interest in them, and they are tomorrow's consumers.

You say that downloaded movies are in decline. Maybe for what can be measured: paid content, but is that the whole picture? What about downloaded free content like TV shows? What about Bit-Torrent downloaded video (legal & illegal)? What about streamed video? Personally, I get in a little R&R at lunch time by watching John Stewart on YouTube in a 2" window, and guess what, it's just as funny. Oprah, the news, South Park, and Porn don't need to be in HD and with thundering surround sound. Does Joe Sixpack want everyone in the neighborhood to know he's having his way with himself while watching a 20' tall Jenna getting freaky? I doubt it.

As I've already told Wooch I can't argue against the numbers - they may be partially true. But even stats can only give part of the picture. In Confessions of an Economic Hitman, Perkins says that statistics are twisted to reveal economic falsehoods as a matter of practice. Just as this was true in Chile, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia on a global scale, do you really think stats are not slightly skewed to show a particular point of view here in the good ol' US of A? How confident are we in the numbers we get from inside the industry? Remember those poll numbers before the last elections? Sure there are impartial sources, but that may not be the whole picture. Sales figures are only true for what is sold. They don't necessarily reflect what is seen in HD or SD.

I'll even wager that in 2 years people will be able to download or stream 1080p movies and content at will. If Japan has already figured out the technology, it's not like we have to invent it from scratch. Maybe we should copy it from them (wow, talk about role reversals). Who will pay for it? Well, how much money do Rummy, Cheney and Bush have? They won't need it when they're in jail. Personally, I'm of the opinion that our politicians should spend a little less time worrying about what's going on in the bedroom and a little more worrying about our infrastructure. If they don't like it, I'm going to vote them out.

But the white elephant here is the companies that profit from this. Most consumers believe that they already have this figured out and are holding off until they can figure out how to squeeze the most money out of it. The RIAA/MPAA are a perfect example of institutions created to hold back progress, criminalize minor transgressors, and spread FUD long enough until a new profit model can be created that will screw the consumer out of more money. Not true, you say? So what? Even if it's not true, the consumer believes it. And until he is convinced otherwise, he'll hold out for something that gives him greater freedoms, or at least the semblance of more freedom.