As reported by BDA & news from IFA

[dean_martin]

Are ya'll done? Is the debate over? Is it too late to chime in? Earlier this year I read an interview of one of the founders of ARCAM. I got the distinct impression he was pulling for HD-DVD to prevail. Here's the interview: http://stereophile.com/interviews/107daw/

It made me wonder whether some of the hardware manufacturers we (most regulars) tend to gravitate to are/were pulling for HD-DVD early on. Admittedly, Sony is no slouch. Sometimes their reputation is actually better than their products, but there's no doubt they are formidable competition.

I've never been an early adopter, but I splurged on Toshiba's 2nd gen entry player when it went on sale for $269.99 (and 5 free titles by mail). I'm glad I did because I didn't have an sd player with upconverting/upscaling circuitry and sd dvds looked bad on my HD display. I think I could've accomplished the same thing (near-hd picture with sd dvds) by getting a quality upscaling player from the likes of Denon, Marantz, Pioneer Elite, or taking a chance on a cheaper player from brands I'm not as familiar with such as Oppo. However, I wouldn't have the option of a true hd source. You can probably tell that I'm pleased with the Toshiba's performance with sd dvds. If Blu-ray wins out, I know I can at least get most of Stanley Kubrick's movies on HD-DVD before the war ends and still have a unit that makes sd dvds look good. Heck, if Blu-ray ultimately prevails, then I'll have a legit reason to get a PS3, right?

[L.J.]

Heck, if Blu-ray ultimately prevails, then I'll have a legit reason to get a PS3, right?

[nightflier]

Terrence, get a life. I can sit here and debate each and every point you came back with. Your logic doesn't apply, your understanding of the scope of this issue is too narrow, and you are marred by your own interest in this format war. You are splitting hairs. It's clear from everyone else here that they are fed up with this point-for-point debate (mine and yours). We'll never get anywhere and this will go on forever, so I'll be pithy about it:

Fact is, you admit now that your sales figures are stats, so they are indeed estimates. Why don't you just admit that you were wrong about that one? I never once discounted the sales figures, so stop saying I did. And for chrissakes stop splitting hairs over examples and look at the bigger picture. The tanker was an example, of which there are many, that could affect the price of disk as well as player sales. Also your understanding of the internet and how it works is sophomoric - you better leave that alone. There won't be any tearing down and it will evolve to support more traffic - just because you can't understand it, doesn't mean you can discount that. And finally, your ability to buy both types of HD players makes you a far cry from joe6pack - you're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry" and here you are flag-waiving for BR. They're supposed to trust you? I'm only telling people to be careful. This is all just entertainment to you, remember? If that isn't a god-complex statement, I don't know what is. Get a life and stop trying to tell others what they should buy - they can't trust you.

Better yet, why don't you put your reputation where your mouth is. I am willing to wager that both BR & HDDVD will be supplanted. If I'm wrong, I'll come back here and admit it. If it's such a stupid wager and the odds are so far in your favor, why can't you commit to it? Either put up or shut up. Everyone here, including myself, is tired of you incessant self-aggrandizing preaching. So put up or shut up.

[PeruvianSkies]

Terrence, get a life. I can sit here and debate each and every point you came back with. Your logic doesn't apply, your understanding of the scope of this issue is too narrow, and you are marred by your own interest in this format war. You are splitting hairs. It's clear from everyone else here that they are fed up with this point-for-point debate (mine and yours). We'll never get anywhere and this will go on forever, so I'll be pithy about it:

Fact is, you admit now that your sales figures are stats, so they are indeed estimates. Why don't you just admit that you were wrong about that one? I never once discounted the sales figures, so stop saying I did. And for chrissakes stop splitting hairs over examples and look at the bigger picture. The tanker was an example, of which there are many, that could affect the price of disk as well as player sales. Also your understanding of the internet and how it works is sophomoric - you better leave that alone. There won't be any tearing down and it will evolve to support more traffic - just because you can't understand it, doesn't mean you can discount that. And finally, your ability to buy both types of HD players makes you a far cry from joe6pack - you're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry" and here you are flag-waiving for BR. They're supposed to trust you? I'm only telling people to be careful. This is all just entertainment to you, remember? If that isn't a god-complex statement, I don't know what is. Get a life and stop trying to tell others what they should buy - they can't trust you.

Better yet, why don't you put your reputation where your mouth is. I am willing to wager that both BR & HDDVD will be supplanted. If I'm wrong, I'll come back here and admit it. If it's such a stupid wager and the odds are so far in your favor, why can't you commit to it? Either put up or shut up. Everyone here, including myself, is tired of you incessant self-aggrandizing preaching. So put up or shut up.

I am tired of it and I am still waiting for some comments on my BRAM STOKER remarks, but have yet to get anything back on it. Maybe that's not a bad thing.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I am tired of it and I am still waiting for some comments on my BRAM STOKER remarks, but have yet to get anything back on it. Maybe that's not a bad thing.

Sky type guy, just what are your comments regarding Dracuul? I will be glad to address them.

[PeruvianSkies]

Sky type guy, just what are your comments regarding Dracuul? I will be glad to address them.

Read.....this.......thread......

[Woochifer]

Fact is, you admit now that your sales figures are stats, so they are indeed estimates. Why don't you just admit that you were wrong about that one?

In an analyst study of the industry where they are trying to gauge the size of the market as a whole, you might be able to say that. But, the straight reporting of the Nielson data is not an estimate. It's a simple tally of point-of-sale transactions, and that's where the weekly rankings and market shares by format come from. The estimates come from those analysts that extrapolate the Nielson data to fill in the blanks, and sites like the Digital Bits, Video Business, and Home Media are not doing that.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Terrence, get a life. I can sit here and debate each and every point you came back with. Your logic doesn't apply, your understanding of the scope of this issue is too narrow, and you are marred by your own interest in this format war. You are splitting hairs. It's clear from everyone else here that they are fed up with this point-for-point debate (mine and yours). We'll never get anywhere and this will go on forever, so I'll be pithy about it:

You thought this up, follow your own suggestion.

Fact is, you admit now that your sales figures are stats, so they are indeed estimates. Why don't you just admit that you were wrong about that one? I never once discounted the sales figures, so stop saying I did. And for chrissakes stop splitting hairs over examples and look at the bigger picture. The tanker was an example, of which there are many, that could affect the price of disk as well as player sales. Also your understanding of the internet and how it works is sophomoric - you better leave that alone. There won't be any tearing down and it will evolve to support more traffic - just because you can't understand it, doesn't mean you can discount that. And finally, your ability to buy both types of HD players makes you a far cry from joe6pack - you're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry" and here you are flag-waiving for BR. They're supposed to trust you? I'm only telling people to be careful. This is all just entertainment to you, remember? If that isn't a god-complex statement, I don't know what is. Get a life and stop trying to tell others what they should buy - they can't trust you.

Hey nightflier, its not my fault that you look at discs in the same way you look at commodities such as oil and gas. That is your fault for attempting to make something so well understood so complex. Players are not traded like oil, pot bellies, or grain. If a shipment get's lost, if we have a hurricane, if there is an earthquake, the cost of players and software remains the same. Did you ever hear any news that the cost of DVD's went up in Los Angeles after the 1994 Northridge earthquake? Or how about in New Oleans after Katrina?

Creepy connection to the industry? If I do, then you have a creepy connection to your job as well.

Alot of people have bought both. Dave right here has both. I know at least a dozen more on AVS who have both. I know at least two dozen more that have both on Bluray.com. Having both just guarantees you access to both camps library of HD movies.

As far as my understanding of the internet, well if it is sophmoric, so is your understanding of the movie business. Well its more like pre-school now that I think of it.

Better yet, why don't you put your reputation where your mouth is. I am willing to wager that both BR & HDDVD will be supplanted. If I'm wrong, I'll come back here and admit it. If it's such a stupid wager and the odds are so far in your favor, why can't you commit to it? Either put up or shut up. Everyone here, including myself, is tired of you incessant self-aggrandizing preaching. So put up or shut up.

You are sounding like a broken record, and in the process boring me. We have already covered this ground, move along

[nightflier]

You thought this up, follow your own suggestion.

No I didn't bring it up, it's just clear from what others are posting. It was brought up by someone else. Get your facts straight.

Players are not traded like oil, pot bellies, or grain. If a shipment get's lost, if we have a hurricane, if there is an earthquake, the cost of players and software remains the same. Did you ever hear any news that the cost of DVD's went up in Los Angeles after the 1994 Northridge earthquake? Or how about in New Oleans after Katrina?

What a moronic thing to say. Taxes went up after Northridge, but we're talking about a small event and that's not what I'm talking about. Catastrophic events in countries that produce vital components, including political events and war will indeed have an impact. Are you going to tell me that the events of Sept.11, 2001 didn't have an impact on our economy? How many people went out and bought a DVD player on Sept. 12th? Technology sales were way down that holiday season. Likewise, if a tanker full of a specific unique parts for HD players sunk, it could also have an impact. If the housing market goes completely bust, people will have less to spend. If the price of oil doubles, it will be more expensive to ship parts and disks from the far east. All these things can have an impact. Stop trying to split hairs over this - you know I'm right about that.

...then you have a creepy connection to your job as well.

Care to explain that one?

Alot of people have bought both. Dave right here has both. I know at least a dozen more on AVS who have both. I know at least two dozen more that have both on Bluray.com. Having both just guarantees you access to both camps library of HD movies.

Stop with that already. It's just making a mountain out of a molehill. The vast majority of consumers are not going to buy both. You know that just as well as everyone else here.

As far as my understanding of the internet, well if it is sophmoric, so is your understanding of the movie business. Well its more like pre-school now that I think of it.

Well is that your best shot this time? You still know didly about the Internet and how it can support higher capacities, and this isn't the forum for that anyhow, so just drop it.

You are sounding like a broken record, and in the process boring me. We have already covered this ground, move along

No, the broken record is you that won't commit. If you're so sure about BR, then say so. Put up or shut up.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

No I didn't bring it up, it's just clear from what others are posting. It was brought up by someone else. Get your facts straight.

You continually say that I am getting some benefit from this, just what is this benefit?

What a moronic thing to say. Taxes went up after Northridge, but we're talking about a small event and that's not what I'm talking about. Catastrophic events in countries that produce vital components, including political events and war will indeed have an impact. Are you going to tell me that the events of Sept.11, 2001 didn't have an impact on our economy? How many people went out and bought a DVD player on Sept. 12th? Technology sales were way down that holiday season. Likewise, if a tanker full of a specific unique parts for HD players sunk, it could also have an impact. If the housing market goes completely bust, people will have less to spend. If the price of oil doubles, it will be more expensive to ship parts and disks from the far east. All these things can have an impact. Stop trying to split hairs over this - you know I'm right about that.

You act like the CE manufacturers don't know how to make a backup plan. I wonder how they ever managed to get the DVD platform to market. I am sure all of these condition existed then, but they seem to manage to get players on the shelves and the discs replicated

Geeze, those stupid CE manufacturers don't know how to adjust their sales forecasts after a major catastrophe. I am sure they are stupid enough to have only one part supplier supplying parts for their players with no contingency plan whatsover. Geeze, I wonder how these stupid CE companies got VHS and Compact disc into the market place. You know with inflation running rampant, didn't we have a hostage crises during its existance? I wonder if everyone stop buying players when that happen. Oh, and after the earthquake in Los Angeles, I am sure those guys in Peoria stopped buying players all of a sudden. I am sure that everyone stop living life after September 11. Buying slowed down, but didn't stop. Somehow players made it to the shelves after 9/11, I don't know how they did it. Maybe they just waived the magic wan and they appear out of thin air. Don't they have major floods in China? Didn't a tsunami happen in Indonesia? I guess they did, but people still bought DVD's and DVD players. Hmmmm... humans just don't know how to adjust.

(knocks on nightfliers noggin) Hey, they don't ship discs to the far east, the far east produces its own discs. There are disc replication plants all over the world.

Care to explain that one?

Care to explain thisyou're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry"

I work in that industry. So if I have a creepy connection to it, then you have a creepy connection to the industry you work in. Just that simple.

Stop with that already. It's just making a mountain out of a molehill. The vast majority of consumers are not going to buy both. You know that just as well as everyone else here.

Oh, tweaked your nose a bit here. They do make dual format players don't they? Oh, maybe you didn't know that, which is not out of line for you.

Talk about making a mountain out of a mole hill. I wonder if that ship full of HD DVD players ever made it to Best Buy? Did they dry them off after retrieving them from Davey jones locker? Sheesh!

Well is that your best shot this time? You still know didly about the Internet and how it can support higher capacities, and this isn't the forum for that anyhow, so just drop it.

You do the same with the movie industry since you don't know jack about it.

No, the broken record is you that won't commit. If you're so sure about BR, then say so. Put up or shut up.

Kex, Wooch, somebody hit the needle, the record is stuck and I cannot get my groove on.....

[nightflier]

You continually say that I am getting some benefit from this, just what is this benefit?

You said it was good for your wallet. If I misunderstood that, you're welcome to explain that further.

You act like the CE manufacturers don't know how to make a backup plan.... Hmmmm... humans just don't know how to adjust.

If you would bother to read my post, I said that catastrophic events can have an impact during this holiday season. If you don't believe that, consider what would happen if our government, in it's infinite wisdom, were to bomb Iran in the next couple of months. Are you going to tell me that this act and the events that will follow will not have an impact on this industry? Let's not forget the cozy relationship that China has built with Iran and it's volatile neighbors in the last few years. We'd be pissing in their backyard.

(knocks on nightfliers noggin) Hey, they don't ship discs to the far east, the far east produces its own discs. There are disc replication plants all over the world.

And especially in those countries where our government is acting like the 800 lb gorilla.

Care to explain this you're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry"

Oddball - because you have enough money to flip sides between the formats if you feel like it. Most consumers don't.

Creepy connection - because your relationship to this industry is too cozy and does not allow you to see much outside of it.

...you have a creepy connection to the industry you work in...

But we're talking about the BR/HDDVD format war, and I don't have a creepy connection to that industry. Let's stay on topic here.

Oh, tweaked your nose a bit here. They do make dual format players don't they? Oh, maybe you didn't know that, which is not out of line for you.

Nose just fine - no need to claim victory points. Did you want a little gold start to go with that one, Terrence? If I remember right, the LG dual format player is being outsold by single format players in appalling numbers. Don't know about the new Samsung one, but the price point of these players is high and the market segment they are trying to appeal to, may not be there. Of course, that's just my take on it, I'm sure your industry insiders can give us some hard numbers to compare with.

Talk about making a mountain out of a mole hill.

Look, just face it, the vast majority of consumers will not buy one player for each format, it's just not going to happen, so drop it already. If you're so bent on disproving that, let's see some hard numbers to back that claim - not just your 2-3 friends who just happen to be reviewers too so they need them for their work - they are not your typical consumer. Granted, there will be people with game consoles who may have both, but what will those numbers be? Still not even close to people buying into a single format. Show me some numbers or drop it already. Put up or shut up.

I wonder if that ship full of HD DVD players ever made it to Best Buy? Did they dry them off after retrieving them from Davey jones locker? Sheesh!

Is this really the best you got? You want another gold start for that one, little Terrence?

Kex, Wooch, somebody hit the needle, the record is stuck and I cannot get my groove on.....

You need your friends to help you in the playground? 'Come on Terrence, let's see you commit to something on your own. State that if BR doesn't win this you'll come back here and say so.

'Come on, you know you want to....

Think of all the gold stars you'll get... Everyone at your feet, begging to be blessed with your wisdom.... Imagine it, and it will be so...

Sir Terrence the Terrible, the plumed little green knight that could...

[nightflier]

Wooch,

So lemme get this straight, you're saying that based on a 67% marketshare, people should call it and just buy the BR player? You and I both know that's not enough - if we were Wall Street investors, we'd stay clear of those odds - so why should consumers do otherwise? If you were a BBall coach and you were behind 20-40 at half-time, would you tell your team to throw in the towel? If you were a general and your were outmanned 1-2 on the battlefield, would you give up? Ever heard of Hannibal? Ceasar? Wellington? Rommel? They stayed in it because there were other factors at play besides the numbers.

And how much of a share of the movie market are BR & HDDVD? Does anyone know? Let's say it's 5%. That means that BR accounts for about 3% of all movie sales? And you're going to tell me that people should jump in with both feet? Ouch. And you're telling me that this 3% is not in danger from VOD, SD & HD downloads? Or maybe you're going to say that that 3% can stand up to all the unknowns that SirT is so quick to dismiss?

And even if HD is 15% of the market, that's only 8% for BR. Still not enough to bet the farm on, if you ask me.

Everyone is so afraid to consider the political situation, but I think I need to mention it again. Some nasty stuff is going down in Myanmar, in case anybody cares to look that up. We're still saber rattling with China, too. We're on the verge of blowing another country in the gulf to kingdom come - how will that go over in Indonesia or Malaysia where Sony and Toshiba factories are located? How much longer can we last in Iraq and Afghanistan? Who's going to foot the bill for this war when the troops come home and the loansharks come knocking? Are we going to pay for that with our housing boom profits? No, we're going to pay for that with taxes that will affect what else people can buy. What if Hillary (bless her heart) becomes president - how will that affect the economy, the war, the CPI? Those are unknowns that will each have an impact on buying trends. And those precious Nielson ratings will let you know about it, well after it's a economic history.

It seems like the only people that are cheering on BR here are those people who have already made that purchase. In the case of SirT, he's bought both, but he can easily switch if he needs to - should we trust him? Most of us regular folks won't be able to buy both. I've got money set aside for one player and some disks, not two - I hardly think that's the exception.

I say wait it out - the lead is not enough yet.

[Woochifer]

So lemme get this straight, you're saying that based on a 67% marketshare, people should call it and just buy the BR player?

Try reading my response again. I'm not recommending that people buy a Blu-ray player. But, if someone really wants a HD optical player, the Blu-ray player is by far the safer bet. Betamax started losing studio and retail support not long after their market share dipped below a 2-to-1 deficit, which cemented the format's demise. History has proven that consumers and retailers alike will not support multiple formats indefinitely. The weaker format will always get relegated to niche status or disappear altogether.

You and I both know that's not enough - if we were Wall Street investors, we'd stay clear of those odds - so why should consumers do otherwise? If you were a BBall coach and you were behind 20-40 at half-time, would you tell your team to throw in the towel? If you were a general and your were outmanned 1-2 on the battlefield, would you give up? Ever heard of Hannibal? Ceasar? Wellington? Rommel? They stayed in it because there were other factors at play besides the numbers.

If you believe that applies here, then put your money where your mouth is and invest in HD-DVD. I'll continue to sit things out.

And how much of a share of the movie market are BR & HDDVD? Does anyone know? Let's say it's 5%. That means that BR accounts for about 3% of all movie sales? And you're going to tell me that people should jump in with both feet? Ouch. And you're telling me that this 3% is not in danger from VOD, SD & HD downloads? Or maybe you're going to say that that 3% can stand up to all the unknowns that SirT is so quick to dismiss?

And even if HD is 15% of the market, that's only 8% for BR. Still not enough to bet the farm on, if you ask me.

Considering the pains you take in trying to dispute the Nielson numbers, are you saying that anyone should trust this bunch of hypotheticals over a dataset with a 60% sample?

Everyone is so afraid to consider the political situation, but I think I need to mention it again. Some nasty stuff is going down in Myanmar, in case anybody cares to look that up. We're still saber rattling with China, too. We're on the verge of blowing another country in the gulf to kingdom come - how will that go over in Indonesia or Malaysia where Sony and Toshiba factories are located? How much longer can we last in Iraq and Afghanistan? Who's going to foot the bill for this war when the troops come home and the loansharks come knocking? Are we going to pay for that with our housing boom profits? No, we're going to pay for that with taxes that will affect what else people can buy. What if Hillary (bless her heart) becomes president - how will that affect the economy, the war, the CPI? Those are unknowns that will each have an impact on buying trends. And those precious Nielson ratings will let you know about it, well after it's a economic history.

And what does Myanmar have to do with the validity of point-of-sale data collected inside of U.S. retail stores? Unless you can prove that deteriorating economic and market conditions would disproportionately affect Blu-ray more than HD-DVD, this flight of fancy analogy doesn't apply to much of anything.

It seems like the only people that are cheering on BR here are those people who have already made that purchase. In the case of SirT, he's bought both, but he can easily switch if he needs to - should we trust him? Most of us regular folks won't be able to buy both. I've got money set aside for one player and some disks, not two - I hardly think that's the exception.

Cheering on? Hardly. From the beginning, I've said that I want one unified format, and absent a unified format, I want either HD-DVD or Blu-ray to decisively win. And with the current market structure, there simply no way for HD-DVD to accomplish that. It will take a major structural shift on the magnitude of Paramount/Dreamworks' announcement for HD-DVD to even come close to pulling even with Blu-ray in overall market share. If the market structure stays the same, Blu-ray wins or some hybrid approach will win. It's that simple.

[Feanor]

Try reading my response again. I'm not recommending that people buy a Blu-ray player. But, if someone really wants a HD optical player, the Blu-ray player is by far the safer bet. Betamax started losing studio and retail support not long after their market share dipped below a 2-to-1 deficit, which cemented the format's demise. History has proven that consumers and retailers alike will not support multiple formats indefinitely. The weaker format will always get relegated to niche status or disappear altogether.
...

Technically the best, I mean. Sometime that happens, e.g. cassette beat 8-track. Sometime is doesn't, e.g. VHS beat Beta.

I guess Blu-ray is better (?), but as a somebody who bought Beta, I'll be waiting waiting for the clear winnner.

[GMichael]

Technically the best, I mean. Sometime that happens, e.g. cassette beat 8-track. Sometime is doesn't, e.g. VHS beat Beta.

I guess Blu-ray is better (?), but as a somebody who bought Beta, I'll be waiting waiting for the clear winnner.

As someone with no gaming consol, I've decided to get one that comes with an HD format.
Two birds, one stone.

[L.J.]

As someone with no gaming consol, I've decided to get one that comes with an HD format.
Two birds, one stone.

Yup, make sense. I knew I was getting a PS3, so I welcomed Bluray with open arms. If Bluray does fail, I'll still have a very useful machine and the ability to still play my Bluray library. I should be at about 50 BR by the end of the year.

I know that's nothing compared to SirT's 200, but you gotta start somewhere

[drseid]

Technically the best, I mean. Sometime that happens, e.g. cassette beat 8-track. Sometime is doesn't, e.g. VHS beat Beta.

I guess Blu-ray is better (?), but as a somebody who bought Beta, I'll be waiting waiting for the clear winnner.

No problem waiting it out, but both formats are great options right now, IMO.

I wouldn't classify BR as "better," or at least not IMO... I like the interactive in-movie capabilities (and online fuctionality) much better with HD DVD. This, of course, is subjective and many may not even use the features or feel otherwise. And studio coverage is pretty even, but the older classic films I personally enjoy have been more available on HD DVD (with more of the newer blockbuster type movie releases on BR).

Both formats have their pluses and minuses... I kind of wish they would have gotten together and made a "super" format that had the best of both worlds and was supported by all of the studios. That said, whichever "wins," (if any) I feel lucky to be able to watch high quality HD movies at home with killer sound. I kind of felt the same feeling of initial excitement when I watched my first couple of DVDs (even if they were pretty lame titles like "Animation Greats" and "Tropical Rain Forests").

I still believe both formats can survive side by side, and will. Next year will either produce a "winner," (if so, I am wrong) or create a compromise (like dual format players being more widely adopted at a much lower cost than they are now with better functionality). We will see. Regardless, I think it is an exciting time in the HT arena, and I, for one, am enjoying every minute of it... "format wars" be damned.

---Dave

[nightflier]

History has proven that consumers and retailers alike will not support multiple formats indefinitely. The weaker format will always get relegated to niche status or disappear altogether.

Unless they both become niche and a third format takes over. SACD and DVD-A are a good example of products that, despite their technical/qualitative superiority, both became niche (at best) at a time that downloads and personal music players overtook the attention of the buying public. By the way, Sir T., I would call that a striking similarity.

If you believe that applies here, then put your money where your mouth is and invest in HD-DVD. I'll continue to sit things out.

I have my eye on an upconverting DVD player. The fact that the HD formats don't support SACD is a problem for me and I don't have the time for console games right now so the PS3 is out. If you put a gun to my head, I suppose I would buy HDDVD because I like their catalog better, but it really is a toss-up for me right now. I'm going to wait it out some more.

Considering the pains you take in trying to dispute the Nielson numbers, are you saying that anyone should trust this bunch of hypotheticals over a dataset with a 60% sample?

OK, before we go any further with this line of reasoning, what percentage of the movie market is HD? Anybody care to fill us in?

And what does Myanmar have to do with the validity of point-of-sale data collected inside of U.S. retail stores? Unless you can prove that deteriorating economic and market conditions would disproportionately affect Blu-ray more than HD-DVD, this flight of fancy analogy doesn't apply to much of anything.

No, if you read my post more carefully, I didn't say they would affect point-of-sale data collected here. What I said was that catastrophic events can have an impact this holiday season because they provide assembly facilities and parts to meet demand. Didn't everybody pretty much agree earlier in this thread that this season was crucial for both formats? Myanmar, Malaysia, and Indonesia have large manufacturing and assembly plants for western electronic goods. Even India and China outsource to those countries.

Cheering on? Hardly.

I was referring to Pixel and SirT.

From the beginning, I've said that I want one unified format, and absent a unified format, I want either HD-DVD or Blu-ray to decisively win. And with the current market structure, there simply no way for HD-DVD to accomplish that. It will take a major structural shift on the magnitude of Paramount/Dreamworks' announcement for HD-DVD to even come close to pulling even with Blu-ray in overall market share. If the market structure stays the same, Blu-ray wins or some hybrid approach will win. It's that simple.

I respect that opinion a whole lot more. It takes into consideration other factors that may have an impact. It's also a position you've taken without really having made a purchase yet - so you don't have a vested interest. You see the numbers, you figure it's 2-1 and acknowledge that things aren't going well with HDDVD, and you're careful enough to not antagonize people too much on the topic. Perhaps most importantly, as I've read in your other posts, you are a bit more humble and you don't make others feel like simpletons.

And if I may, I still think that the resilience of the HDDVD camp in light of all the negative sales figures, is reason for concern. For example, Microsoft spends millions on research into future technologies and trend forecasting. They are still in the HDDVD camp, and so I'm left wondering what do they know that we don't? We can speculate, but we really don't know. Likewise, I am confident that the problem with internet bandwidth can be addressed with a combination of software and hardware upgrades and that the industries that stand to profit from this will make it happen, sooner rather than later. I know from my own experience that on the software side there are substantial advances being developed today and these will be implemented over the next two years.

Anyhow, it is my opinion, that it's still too early to call a winner. Anyone who does, is flag-waiving because they have a vested interest.

[Woochifer]

Unless they both become niche and a third format takes over. SACD and DVD-A are a good example of products that, despite their technical/qualitative superiority, both became niche (at best) at a time that downloads and personal music players overtook the attention of the buying public. By the way, Sir T., I would call that a striking similarity.

Discussing who's winning the HD-DVD and Blu-ray format war does not exclude the possibility of both formats failing. Among the possible outcomes for th two formats, right now, the only scenario outside the rhelm of possibility is HD-DVD winning the format war outright, which is exactly why I would opt for Blu-ray if I was going to buy a HD optical player. But, also the SACD/DVD-A analogy does not hold up for reasons that I've spelled out many times before on this board.

OK, before we go any further with this line of reasoning, what percentage of the movie market is HD? Anybody care to fill us in?

The info's out there, but I don't bother looking it up because it's irrelevant to any discussion of Blu-ray v. HD-DVD. Right now, there is no format war with DVD -- the market comparison with DVD is just as irrelevant now as DVD v. VHS was in 1998. When/if the market for HD optical discs picks up, then the market share comparison with DVD becomes more relevant.

No, if you read my post more carefully, I didn't say they would affect point-of-sale data collected here. What I said was that catastrophic events can have an impact this holiday season because they provide assembly facilities and parts to meet demand. Didn't everybody pretty much agree earlier in this thread that this season was crucial for both formats? Myanmar, Malaysia, and Indonesia have large manufacturing and assembly plants for western electronic goods. Even India and China outsource to those countries.

Like I said before, your doomsday scenario applies [i]only[/] if it can be proven that these events collectively impact one format more than the other. Otherwise, it's nothing more than political soapbox fodder that makes for off-top conversation and speculation, but nothing pertaining to how HD-DVD stacks up against Blu-ray.

And if I may, I still think that the resilience of the HDDVD camp in light of all the negative sales figures, is reason for concern. For example, Microsoft spends millions on research into future technologies and trend forecasting. They are still in the HDDVD camp, and so I'm left wondering what do they know that we don't? We can speculate, but we really don't know. Likewise, I am confident that the problem with internet bandwidth can be addressed with a combination of software and hardware upgrades and that the industries that stand to profit from this will make it happen, sooner rather than later. I know from my own experience that on the software side there are substantial advances being developed today and these will be implemented over the next two years.

Like I said, Blu-ray continues holding most of the advantages. Any scenario that vaults HD-DVD into a sustainable lead relies on outside forces. The scenarios that support Blu-ray are already unfolding. One scenario requires speculation and guessing, the other requires no more than a continuation of trends that have been holding steady for the past 10 months (e.g., HD-DVD has not outsold Blu-ray in any week since December of last year).

[PeruvianSkies]

Man, I sure appreciate your fervor and tenacity in dealing with this particular thread, that being said you may as well save your breathe (or in this case fingers from typing) because you are dealing with individuals who refuse to be proven wrong about their opinions and more importantly, even if proven wrong would never admit to it anyway. The end result is that they suck the fun out of this site, if it was ever fun to begin with, I guess that's a matter of personal opinion or maybe fact...depends on who you ask. Peace bro.

[GMichael]

Bump. Ooops. What was that?

[Mr Peabody]

Anyone know if the Jungle Book was released on Blu-ray as it was supposed to. They didn't mention Blu-ray on the TV commercial. They usually do when they come out at the same time. Original reports were that both would be released on the same day.

Movies like this are a tough call, do you buy Blu-ray and the kids only watch when dad is there, or do you buy it on DVD so it can be played any where in the house and auto. Even if Blu-ray was to win it would take a long time to switch over all players. I wish they would do a deal where you could get both formats at a slight discount, because in this scenario I believe DVD gets the nudge for now. In this case a dual format disc wouldn't work, I'd be afraid of getting one side scratched up.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Anyone know if the Jungle Book was released on Blu-ray as it was supposed to. They didn't mention Blu-ray on the TV commercial. They usually do when they come out at the same time. Original reports were that both would be released on the same day.

Movies like this are a tough call, do you buy Blu-ray and the kids only watch when dad is there, or do you buy it on DVD so it can be played any where in the house and auto. Even if Blu-ray was to win it would take a long time to switch over all players. I wish they would do a deal where you could get both formats at a slight discount, because in this scenario I believe DVD gets the nudge for now. In this case a dual format disc wouldn't work, I'd be afraid of getting one side scratched up.

HD DVD tried to conquer this problem with the combo disc DVD on one side, HD DVD on the other. They had too many problems with them playing on HD DVD players. Warner has finally gave up on it, and it looks like Universal may as well.

This has not really been a problem for me. Most of my bluray collection is upgrades from my DVD collection. So I have one I can travel with, and the other for my hometheater. Obviously for new releases I get the bluray, so travelling with new releases is currently impossible.

Hopefully they'll have a bluray portable soon.

As far as Jungle book, Disney decided against it because catalog titles sales are not doing that well at the moment. The only catalog titles Disney plans to release are titles that have done well at the box office, and on DVD. Cars fits that perfectly.

[L.J.]

Movies like this are a tough call, do you buy Blu-ray and the kids only watch when dad is there, or do you buy it on DVD so it can be played any where in the house and auto. Even if Blu-ray was to win it would take a long time to switch over all players. I wish they would do a deal where you could get both formats at a slight discount, because in this scenario I believe DVD gets the nudge for now. In this case a dual format disc wouldn't work, I'd be afraid of getting one side scratched up.

I'm kinda in the same situation but I do have a pretty large DVD collections so there's plenty to choose from. Just the other day my wife tried to play a BR in the DVD player up front. Any animation I have double dipped on, the DVD copy goes to the kids room or up front. If it's a new release than I'll buy it on BR and we just all watch it together. One thing I've done is buy about 20 or so DVD's that my kids just keep in their room at all times or for the car.

[Mr Peabody]

LJ, do you think animation benefits as much from Blu-ray as a regular film? I haven't watched many animated movies on BR but the couple I have seen the difference didn't seem to be as noticeable. The SD was upsampled but the difference is still apparent on regular filmed movies. BR animation looks sharper and more color saturation over SD. It's probably not possible to draw the kind of depth and other detail of reality.