Blu Tide Continues to Turn: Porn Studios Ready to Abandon HD-DVD?

[Ajani]

........I would hardly call 600,000 standalones, and 8 million PS3 world wide dismal sales.......

I have one large problem with these figures that Blu-Ray uses to claim large sales... and that is the inclusion of the PS3... sure it can play Blu-Ray discs, but are most consumers really buying it as Blu-Ray player, a videogame sytem or both?

Would it make sense for Mark Levinson to claim to be the leader in high end audio sales, by including the sales of all Lexus with Mark Levinson stereos? I doubt that most consumers buying a Lexus are buying it for the stereo...

Should DVD-A or SACD claim brilliant sales figures based on the number of DVD/Universal Players that now play their respective formats? How many of us consumers have a DVD player that plays one/both of those formats but have never bought a DVD-A/SACD disc?

I regard the PS3 sales figures as a very poor reflection of Blu-Ray's popularity... I think the standalone players are the more telling tale and 600,000 units really isn't all that impressive.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I have one large problem with these figures that Blu-Ray uses to claim large sales... and that is the inclusion of the PS3... sure it can play Blu-Ray discs, but are most consumers really buying it as Blu-Ray player, a videogame sytem or both?

I bought my purely as a bluray player. With no good games out, most of the folks that have bought them were probably for bluray playback. And lets look at the data. Before the PS3 was released, HD DVD was outselling bluray 2-1. One month after the PS3's release bluray was outselling HD DVD 2-1. The PS3 most undoubtedly had a major impact on that. In Europe, the best selling bluray player is the PS3. Disc sales there are 4-1 in blurays favor. In Japan, the PS3 makes up 90% of bluray players sold. Disc sales there are 95-5 in favor of bluray. I am quoting from NDP latest figures. One of the reasons Warner went for bluray was the impact of the PS3. A survey was conduct on bluray.com and a dozen other gaming sites. Over 85% of PS3 owners had purchased at least one bluray disc. So clearly while not all PS3 owners are buying disc, enough are to drive sales.

Would it make sense for Mark Levinson to claim to be the leader in high end audio sales, by including the sales of all Lexus with Mark Levinson stereos? I doubt that most consumers buying a Lexus are buying it for the stereo...

Well ,this is not really a good example. High end has never been associated with cars. A bluray drive has always been associated with a PS3. You have to make the distinction of which high end your are speaking of, but that is how the market is broken down. High end home audio, High end audio for auto. Both are quite different, and deserve the distinction.

Should DVD-A or SACD claim brilliant sales figures based on the number of DVD/Universal Players that now play their respective formats? How many of us consumers have a DVD player that plays one/both of those formats but have never bought a DVD-A/SACD disc?

If these brillant claims of player sales didn't impact disc sales, then making the claim is pointless isn't it? You have 600,000 bluray standalones sold, and 800,000 HD DVD players sold. It is pretty difficult for the lower number to outsell the higher number consistantly 2-1 week after week.

I regard the PS3 sales figures as a very poor reflection of Blu-Ray's popularity... I think the standalone players are the more telling tale and 600,000 units really isn't all that impressive.

I think this is an antiquated way of thinking. Considering that the PS3 is a full profile player, capable of decoding all audio codecs, can be updated wirelessly, has SACD playback and was the cheapest bluray player at that, it was a value that bluray videophiles cannot pass up. Its SACD playback is better than 90% of the SACD players out there, and was engineered by the same guys that developed the SACD format. The PS3 happens to be the most stable bluray player as well. I have never had a single disc frozen in my player. When BD+ was implement, the PS3 handled it better than almost all of the bluray players out there. When it comes to sound and picture quality, the PS3 is always in the top tier of the bluray line of players.
No, the fact that it was such a value is a excellent reflection on the PS3 AND bluray popularity. However, the newer standalones coming out are starting to offer the same level of flexibility as the PS3(though they do not offer SACD playback), and that will definately steal some of the thunder from the PS3. There is a reason that Sound and Vision made the PS3 the product of the year last year.

[hermanv]

Herman, I would hardly call 600,000 standalones, and 8 million PS3 world wide dismal sales. I would hardly call sales of disc which I believe would be about 6 million in 2007 alone terrible this early in a fomats release. Also take into consideration what happened to sales POST the Warner announcement. The format war has clearly taken its toll in the short run, but after that announcement, things changed pretty dramatically number wise.

I didn't say the sales were dismal, According to CNET both Blu Ray and HD-DVD manufacturers did.

Me I wouldn't really know where break even occurs. I am an early adapter of new (but stable) technologies, I'll wait.

[Ajani]

I bought my purely as a bluray player. With no good games out, most of the folks that have bought them were probably for bluray playback. And lets look at the data. Before the PS3 was released, HD DVD was outselling bluray 2-1. One month after the PS3's release bluray was outselling HD DVD 2-1. The PS3 most undoubtedly had a major impact on that. In Europe, the best selling bluray player is the PS3. Disc sales there are 4-1 in blurays favor. In Japan, the PS3 makes up 90% of bluray players sold. Disc sales there are 95-5 in favor of bluray. I am quoting from NDP latest figures. One of the reasons Warner went for bluray was the impact of the PS3. A survey was conduct on bluray.com and a dozen other gaming sites. Over 85% of PS3 owners had purchased at least one bluray disc. So clearly while not all PS3 owners are buying disc, enough are to drive sales.




Well ,this is not really a good example. High end has never been associated with cars. A bluray drive has always been associated with a PS3. You have to make the distinction of which high end your are speaking of, but that is how the market is broken down. High end home audio, High end audio for auto. Both are quite different, and deserve the distinction.



If these brillant claims of player sales didn't impact disc sales, then making the claim is pointless isn't it? You have 600,000 bluray standalones sold, and 800,000 HD DVD players sold. It is pretty difficult for the lower number to outsell the higher number consistantly 2-1 week after week.



I think this is an antiquated way of thinking. Considering that the PS3 is a full profile player, capable of decoding all audio codecs, can be updated wirelessly, has SACD playback and was the cheapest bluray player at that, it was a value that bluray videophiles cannot pass up. Its SACD playback is better than 90% of the SACD players out there, and was engineered by the same guys that developed the SACD format. The PS3 happens to be the most stable bluray player as well. I have never had a single disc frozen in my player. When BD+ was implement, the PS3 handled it better than almost all of the bluray players out there. When it comes to sound and picture quality, the PS3 is always in the top tier of the bluray line of players.
No, the fact that it was such a value is a excellent reflection on the PS3 AND bluray popularity. However, the newer standalones coming out are starting to offer the same level of flexibility as the PS3(though they do not offer SACD playback), and that will definately steal some of the thunder from the PS3. There is a reason that Sound and Vision made the PS3 the product of the year last year.

All good points, but what we seem to have here, is the difference between a conservative and an aggressive estimate... Not including any PS3 sales is conservative, while including all 8 million is very aggressive...

So let's see if I can come up with a more realistic estimate:

Since Blu-Ray discs routinely outsell HD ones 2 to 1 each week.... then that indicates that the PS3 is having some (but not nearly as large an impact as one would expect if 8Million PS3 owners are buying the PS3 to play Blu Ray discs)...

HD Sales = 800,000 Players
Blu-Ray Sales = 600,000 Players + 8,000,000 PS3

So basically a ratio of 1 HD player to just over every 10 Blu-Ray players...

That should transate into disc sales around 10:1 in favour of Blu-Ray, not 2:1....

Which implies that PS3 is effectively contributing about 1M Blu Ray players (HD Players (0.8M)x 2 = 1.6M.... 1.6M - 0.6 (Blu Ray) = 1M PS3 effective contribution)....

Let me know what you think...

[hermanv]

I still remember the scam where Sony hired "critics" to send press releases to national newspapers declaring a Sony movies (Columbia) to be great and with record attendance.

I frankly don't believe a word they say. Not that all other corporations don't routinely stretch the truth. The bigger they are, the greater the chance they can lie with impunity.

It would be very rare for me to base a purchase decision based on press published by the same corporation that makes the product.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

All good points, but what we seem to have here, is the difference between a conservative and an aggressive estimate... Not including any PS3 sales is conservative, while including all 8 million is very aggressive...

So let's see if I can come up with a more realistic estimate:

Since Blu-Ray discs routinely outsell HD ones 2 to 1 each week.... then that indicates that the PS3 is having some (but not nearly as large an impact as one would expect if 8Million PS3 owners are buying the PS3 to play Blu Ray discs)...

HD Sales = 800,000 Players
Blu-Ray Sales = 600,000 Players + 8,000,000 PS3

So basically a ratio of 1 HD player to just over every 10 Blu-Ray players...

That should transate into disc sales around 10:1 in favour of Blu-Ray, not 2:1....

Which implies that PS3 is effectively contributing about 1M Blu Ray players (HD Players (0.8M)x 2 = 1.6M.... 1.6M - 0.6 (Blu Ray) = 1M PS3 effective contribution)....

Let me know what you think...

I used world wide sales of 8 million players with US sales of disc. Try this.

3.7 million players sold IN AMERICA(including the PS3), and 8 million disc sold IN AMERICA. This ought to give a more accurate picture.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I still remember the scam where Sony hired "critics" to send press releases to national newspapers declaring a Sony movies (Columbia) to be great and with record attendance.

I frankly don't believe a word they say. Not that all other corporations don't routinely stretch the truth. The bigger they are, the greater the chance they can lie with impunity.

It would be very rare for me to base a purchase decision based on press published by the same corporation that makes the product.

You would have a point if Sony compiled the figures. They did not, NDP did.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I didn't say the sales were dismal, According to CNET both Blu Ray and HD-DVD manufacturers did.

Me I wouldn't really know where break even occurs. I am an early adapter of new (but stable) technologies, I'll wait.

I have not heard a single manufacturer especially of a bluray player make a claim that sales were dismal. They are furthur along than DVD was at this period in its life.

How do you know if a technology is stable if you do not own it? If you are speaking technically, my PS3 has performed flawlessly. Neither my XA-2 or A-35 have.

If you are referring to the viability of bluray itself, I would say after the Warner announcement things pretty much stablized. It is much like DVD after DIVX died. DVD player sales took off, after the Warner annoucement so did bluray player sales. On DVD disc sales took off(as did rentals) after DIVX died, after the Warner annoucement disc sales with from 71-29% in favor of bluray to 85-15% in favor of bluray. Overall volumes went up as well as the percentage of sales. Paramount will go bluray in the middle of the year, and Universal will go bluray before christmas. With all of the studio supporting bluray, it will do just fine.

[hermanv]

By CNET News.com Staff
Published: October 16, 2007 2:48 PM PDT

Listen Now

Could the smartest choice be buying neither HD format?;

HD DVD or Blu-ray? Could the smartest choice be neither of the two? The high-definition DVD formats are competing for your dollars, but the best investment may be to hurry up and wait. Sales of both formats aren't doing nearly as well as plain old DVDs, and the true future of at-home HD movies will probably be fully digital. CNET News.com's Erica Ogg explains why neither format may be in it for the long haul.

By Erica Ogg
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
Published: October 15, 2007, 4:00 AM PDT

False starts in race to future of DVDs

Is all of this Blu-ray Disc versus HD DVD bickering much ado about nothing?

Many column inches and much screen space have been filled with discussions of a "war" between two rival next-generation DVD formats. On one hand, it's understandable: the opposing camps are manned by the world's leading technology companies and the biggest names in film and television: Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Apple, Dell, Intel, Sony, Toshiba, Samsung, 20th Century Fox, Universal, Warner Bros., Paramount, MGM and many more.

But more than 18 months after the launch of both formats, the question remains, should the average consumer care? Most would say, "not yet." Both sides are still engaged in a battle for consumer attention and dollars, while some are prematurely declaring victory. (Panasonic is the most recent to predict Blu-ray--which it is backing exclusively--will be the undisputed champion.)

There is no guarantee either of these formats will still be viable 12 months from now, so it's unclear why the casual movie fan would consider investing in either side at all--particular because the price of the players and discs are still relatively high. More importantly, many consumers think regular old DVDs are perfectly fine.

The studios and hardware makers on both sides are betting heavily on launching a new format, of course. But all the bickering and public posturing over the last year looks patently ridiculous when one considers how few discs and players these industry giants are actually arguing over.

Case in point: 300 is the fastest-selling next-generation title so far, according to Warner Bros., which says it sold 250,000 high-definition copies of it in the first week. (How fitting that the most successful next-generation movie thus far is about a group of warriors waging an unwinnable battle).

At an industry conference last week, representatives from Microsoft (HD DVD), Sony and Pioneer (Blu-ray), sniped at each other over the number of copies of 300 sold on each format. Blu-ray claims its version of the disc outsold HD DVD's by a margin of two to one in the first week. The breakdown was actually 65 percent Blu-ray, 35 percent HD DVD, according to a Warner Bros. representative.

But only when you consider that the studio sold more than 5 million copies of 300 on standard DVD does it become clear that all this posturing is over less than 5 percent of sales. On the hardware side, DisplaySearch said 5 percent of sales of standalone DVD players in September were either HD DVD or Blu-ray.

For now, both sides are priming the pump to create awareness for a technology that, currently, most consumers can't necessarily even take advantage of because they need a full high-definition (1080p) television to get the maximum effect of an HD DVD or Blu-ray movie.

"It's a different sell if you don't have an HDTV set yet," said Paul Erickson, director of DVD and HD market research for DisplaySearch. "Most of the appeal (of a next-generation player) will come from (having) 1080p. While that may be the standard in the future, 720p is still selling very strongly."
"DVD is a victim of its own success. It's a good technology."
--Josh Martin, analyst, Yankee Group

Luckily for the backers of both formats, high-definition TV sets are selling well these days. Eight out of every 10 TVs sold in the month of August were HDTVs, according to the NPD Group. And 1080p adoption is on the upswing as well; sales of 40-inch and larger LCD TVs that output 1080p resolution have increased more than 40 percent in the last year, according to data from DisplaySearch.

But NPD uncovered a very telling statistic in its 2007 report on high-definition video: 73 percent of current HDTV owners "are satisfied with DVD and don't feel the need to replace" their current players.

Ultimately, DVDs are good enough for most people. Most consumers probably already own a DVD player. If they don't, the average price is certainly more attractive than those of either HD DVD or Blu-ray players. Though prices of both have come way down in the last nine months, the average price for next-generation DVD players is $390 more than standard DVD players.

"DVD is a victim of its own success. It's a good technology," said Josh Martin, an analyst with Yankee Group Research. Plus, the step up to DVD from VHS tapes is not analogous to the step up from DVD to high-definition discs. "Next-gen isn't redefining, it's more tweaking of the technology. Content owners think it's a bigger leap, but consumers look at (a next-generation disc), and it's a disc, and it's not worth $600 or whatever" for the player to go with it.

Some would argue the biggest roadblock in Blu-ray and HD DVD's aspirations of becoming the standard in home video actually isn't the format competition--it's inexpensive, so-called upconverting DVD players, or standard players that have the ability to take regular DVDs and translate them into 1080p, the same resolution as Blu-ray and HD DVD. Though the studios and hardware makers will argue that it's just not the same as the movies recorded and played back in 1080p, it will be good enough for the average consumer.

[pixelthis]

By CNET News.com Staff
Published: October 16, 2007 2:48 PM PDT

Listen Now

Could the smartest choice be buying neither HD format?;

HD DVD or Blu-ray? Could the smartest choice be neither of the two? The high-definition DVD formats are competing for your dollars, but the best investment may be to hurry up and wait. Sales of both formats aren't doing nearly as well as plain old DVDs, and the true future of at-home HD movies will probably be fully digital. CNET News.com's Erica Ogg explains why neither format may be in it for the long haul.

By Erica Ogg
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
Published: October 15, 2007, 4:00 AM PDT

False starts in race to future of DVDs

Is all of this Blu-ray Disc versus HD DVD bickering much ado about nothing?

Many column inches and much screen space have been filled with discussions of a "war" between two rival next-generation DVD formats. On one hand, it's understandable: the opposing camps are manned by the world's leading technology companies and the biggest names in film and television: Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Apple, Dell, Intel, Sony, Toshiba, Samsung, 20th Century Fox, Universal, Warner Bros., Paramount, MGM and many more.

But more than 18 months after the launch of both formats, the question remains, should the average consumer care? Most would say, "not yet." Both sides are still engaged in a battle for consumer attention and dollars, while some are prematurely declaring victory. (Panasonic is the most recent to predict Blu-ray--which it is backing exclusively--will be the undisputed champion.)

There is no guarantee either of these formats will still be viable 12 months from now, so it's unclear why the casual movie fan would consider investing in either side at all--particular because the price of the players and discs are still relatively high. More importantly, many consumers think regular old DVDs are perfectly fine.

The studios and hardware makers on both sides are betting heavily on launching a new format, of course. But all the bickering and public posturing over the last year looks patently ridiculous when one considers how few discs and players these industry giants are actually arguing over.

Case in point: 300 is the fastest-selling next-generation title so far, according to Warner Bros., which says it sold 250,000 high-definition copies of it in the first week. (How fitting that the most successful next-generation movie thus far is about a group of warriors waging an unwinnable battle).

At an industry conference last week, representatives from Microsoft (HD DVD), Sony and Pioneer (Blu-ray), sniped at each other over the number of copies of 300 sold on each format. Blu-ray claims its version of the disc outsold HD DVD's by a margin of two to one in the first week. The breakdown was actually 65 percent Blu-ray, 35 percent HD DVD, according to a Warner Bros. representative.

But only when you consider that the studio sold more than 5 million copies of 300 on standard DVD does it become clear that all this posturing is over less than 5 percent of sales. On the hardware side, DisplaySearch said 5 percent of sales of standalone DVD players in September were either HD DVD or Blu-ray.

For now, both sides are priming the pump to create awareness for a technology that, currently, most consumers can't necessarily even take advantage of because they need a full high-definition (1080p) television to get the maximum effect of an HD DVD or Blu-ray movie.

"It's a different sell if you don't have an HDTV set yet," said Paul Erickson, director of DVD and HD market research for DisplaySearch. "Most of the appeal (of a next-generation player) will come from (having) 1080p. While that may be the standard in the future, 720p is still selling very strongly."
"DVD is a victim of its own success. It's a good technology."
--Josh Martin, analyst, Yankee Group

Luckily for the backers of both formats, high-definition TV sets are selling well these days. Eight out of every 10 TVs sold in the month of August were HDTVs, according to the NPD Group. And 1080p adoption is on the upswing as well; sales of 40-inch and larger LCD TVs that output 1080p resolution have increased more than 40 percent in the last year, according to data from DisplaySearch.

But NPD uncovered a very telling statistic in its 2007 report on high-definition video: 73 percent of current HDTV owners "are satisfied with DVD and don't feel the need to replace" their current players.

Ultimately, DVDs are good enough for most people. Most consumers probably already own a DVD player. If they don't, the average price is certainly more attractive than those of either HD DVD or Blu-ray players. Though prices of both have come way down in the last nine months, the average price for next-generation DVD players is $390 more than standard DVD players.

"DVD is a victim of its own success. It's a good technology," said Josh Martin, an analyst with Yankee Group Research. Plus, the step up to DVD from VHS tapes is not analogous to the step up from DVD to high-definition discs. "Next-gen isn't redefining, it's more tweaking of the technology. Content owners think it's a bigger leap, but consumers look at (a next-generation disc), and it's a disc, and it's not worth $600 or whatever" for the player to go with it.

Some would argue the biggest roadblock in Blu-ray and HD DVD's aspirations of becoming the standard in home video actually isn't the format competition--it's inexpensive, so-called upconverting DVD players, or standard players that have the ability to take regular DVDs and translate them into 1080p, the same resolution as Blu-ray and HD DVD. Though the studios and hardware makers will argue that it's just not the same as the movies recorded and played back in 1080p, it will be good enough for the average consumer.

GEE WIZ!
This is basically what I have been saying, just to be called a "51 year old man who doesn't
know what hes' talking about" by sir talky.
This just goes to show that talky has an agenda and is pushing it, quite often at the expense of reality.
DONT underestimate the tolerance of teh American public for a crappy picture, to most
DVD IS fine, especially with a format that, like I said is more evolutionary than revolutionary.
As for Sonys credibilty , forget about the movie scam, what about putting anti-copy viruses on their CD's that screw up your hard drive? like they did mine?
Too bad that they make such exelent disc players and monitirs, or I'D toss em off completely

[GMichael]

Question:

Do you want to sit back and wait for the future to get here or would you rather get involved now?

[Rich-n-Texas]

Don't ya hate it when you post a response to something on the previous page and no one knows what you're talking about?

[GMichael]

Don't ya hate it when you post a response to something on the previous page and no one knows what you're talking about?

Nah......
I like being on top.

[L.J.]

Question:

Do you want to sit back and wait for the future to get here or would you rather get involved now?

You talkin' to me

[GMichael]

You talkin' to me

Nope, but I will if you like.

What shall we talk about? Porn?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

By CNET News.com Staff
Published: October 16, 2007 2:48 PM PDT

Listen Now

Could the smartest choice be buying neither HD format?;

HD DVD or Blu-ray? Could the smartest choice be neither of the two? The high-definition DVD formats are competing for your dollars, but the best investment may be to hurry up and wait. Sales of both formats aren't doing nearly as well as plain old DVDs, and the true future of at-home HD movies will probably be fully digital. CNET News.com's Erica Ogg explains why neither format may be in it for the long haul.

By Erica Ogg
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
Published: October 15, 2007, 4:00 AM PDT

False starts in race to future of DVDs

Is all of this Blu-ray Disc versus HD DVD bickering much ado about nothing?

Many column inches and much screen space have been filled with discussions of a "war" between two rival next-generation DVD formats. On one hand, it's understandable: the opposing camps are manned by the world's leading technology companies and the biggest names in film and television: Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Apple, Dell, Intel, Sony, Toshiba, Samsung, 20th Century Fox, Universal, Warner Bros., Paramount, MGM and many more.

But more than 18 months after the launch of both formats, the question remains, should the average consumer care? Most would say, "not yet." Both sides are still engaged in a battle for consumer attention and dollars, while some are prematurely declaring victory. (Panasonic is the most recent to predict Blu-ray--which it is backing exclusively--will be the undisputed champion.)

There is no guarantee either of these formats will still be viable 12 months from now, so it's unclear why the casual movie fan would consider investing in either side at all--particular because the price of the players and discs are still relatively high. More importantly, many consumers think regular old DVDs are perfectly fine.

The studios and hardware makers on both sides are betting heavily on launching a new format, of course. But all the bickering and public posturing over the last year looks patently ridiculous when one considers how few discs and players these industry giants are actually arguing over.

Case in point: 300 is the fastest-selling next-generation title so far, according to Warner Bros., which says it sold 250,000 high-definition copies of it in the first week. (How fitting that the most successful next-generation movie thus far is about a group of warriors waging an unwinnable battle).

At an industry conference last week, representatives from Microsoft (HD DVD), Sony and Pioneer (Blu-ray), sniped at each other over the number of copies of 300 sold on each format. Blu-ray claims its version of the disc outsold HD DVD's by a margin of two to one in the first week. The breakdown was actually 65 percent Blu-ray, 35 percent HD DVD, according to a Warner Bros. representative.

But only when you consider that the studio sold more than 5 million copies of 300 on standard DVD does it become clear that all this posturing is over less than 5 percent of sales. On the hardware side, DisplaySearch said 5 percent of sales of standalone DVD players in September were either HD DVD or Blu-ray.

For now, both sides are priming the pump to create awareness for a technology that, currently, most consumers can't necessarily even take advantage of because they need a full high-definition (1080p) television to get the maximum effect of an HD DVD or Blu-ray movie.

"It's a different sell if you don't have an HDTV set yet," said Paul Erickson, director of DVD and HD market research for DisplaySearch. "Most of the appeal (of a next-generation player) will come from (having) 1080p. While that may be the standard in the future, 720p is still selling very strongly."
"DVD is a victim of its own success. It's a good technology."
--Josh Martin, analyst, Yankee Group

Luckily for the backers of both formats, high-definition TV sets are selling well these days. Eight out of every 10 TVs sold in the month of August were HDTVs, according to the NPD Group. And 1080p adoption is on the upswing as well; sales of 40-inch and larger LCD TVs that output 1080p resolution have increased more than 40 percent in the last year, according to data from DisplaySearch.

But NPD uncovered a very telling statistic in its 2007 report on high-definition video: 73 percent of current HDTV owners "are satisfied with DVD and don't feel the need to replace" their current players.

Ultimately, DVDs are good enough for most people. Most consumers probably already own a DVD player. If they don't, the average price is certainly more attractive than those of either HD DVD or Blu-ray players. Though prices of both have come way down in the last nine months, the average price for next-generation DVD players is $390 more than standard DVD players.

"DVD is a victim of its own success. It's a good technology," said Josh Martin, an analyst with Yankee Group Research. Plus, the step up to DVD from VHS tapes is not analogous to the step up from DVD to high-definition discs. "Next-gen isn't redefining, it's more tweaking of the technology. Content owners think it's a bigger leap, but consumers look at (a next-generation disc), and it's a disc, and it's not worth $600 or whatever" for the player to go with it.

Some would argue the biggest roadblock in Blu-ray and HD DVD's aspirations of becoming the standard in home video actually isn't the format competition--it's inexpensive, so-called upconverting DVD players, or standard players that have the ability to take regular DVDs and translate them into 1080p, the same resolution as Blu-ray and HD DVD. Though the studios and hardware makers will argue that it's just not the same as the movies recorded and played back in 1080p, it will be good enough for the average consumer.

This is an opinion piece, not fact.
It is also dated, much has changed since it was written.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

GEE WIZ!
This is basically what I have been saying, just to be called a "51 year old man who doesn't
know what hes' talking about" by sir talky.
This just goes to show that talky has an agenda and is pushing it, quite often at the expense of reality.
DONT underestimate the tolerance of teh American public for a crappy picture, to most
DVD IS fine, especially with a format that, like I said is more evolutionary than revolutionary.
As for Sonys credibilty , forget about the movie scam, what about putting anti-copy viruses on their CD's that screw up your hard drive? like they did mine?
Too bad that they make such exelent disc players and monitirs, or I'D toss em off completely

You would jump up and down over an old dated opinion piece not built on the facts.

[hermanv]

This is an opinion piece, not fact.
It is also dated, much has changed since it was written.

By golly you are right, it has been a whole 3 months since these opinions about actual sales figures were posted.

[Woochifer]

By golly you are right, it has been a whole 3 months since these opinions about actual sales figures were posted.

As T pointed out, three months is an eternity in this format war. Can't use old market data to support a current argument, especially if the market itself has shifted significantly in the meantime.

When those opinions were posted, Paramount/Dreamworks had just dumped Blu-ray less than 2 months prior, which narrowed down Blu-ray's studio support advantage. At that time, HD-DVD still had a slight advantage in standalone player sales, but with a smaller installed user base because of the PS3. Blu-ray probably would have still won out in the end, but the format war under those conditions would have persisted well into 2008 and maybe 2009.

Fast forward to January 2008, now Warner (which controls about 40% of the overall HD disc media market) has announced that it will dump HD-DVD, which effectively relegates the format to about 1/4 of the market. In the aftermath of Warner's announcement, Blu-ray's week-to-week disc sales advantage increased from ~2-to-1 to more than 4-to-1, and the sales of HD-DVD players dropped by more than 80%.

Remember that Betamax was already disappearing from retail stores before its market share dropped down to 25%. HD-DVD is already below that threshold, and like I've said many times before, if these trends hold up, retailers will stop carrying HD-DVD long before Toshiba, Universal, Paramount, and Microsoft officially pull the plug. With those kinds of market conditions, no one can make a credible argument for HD-DVD surviving as a viable format for much longer.

Talk about outdated, that article is still referring to $600 Blu-ray players. If you check the prices now, you'll see that street prices for Blu-ray players are now down to about $250. And many sources are reporting that overall HD optical disc uptake, even with this format war that has left so many consumers sitting on the fence, has occurred at a faster rate than when the DVD format was introduced.

I wonder if the analyst cited in the article was recommending 9 years ago that people stick with VHS because there was no "guarantee" that the DVD format would remain viable in 12 months and that the average consumer was perfectly happy with VHS resolution and pan-and-scan.

[bfalls]

I'm a Sony video fan and work at their DADC facility in Indiana. I purchased a PS3 at the end of September and it's performed flawlessly with both DVD and Blu-ray discs. In Novenber Walmart had a one day sale on the HD-DVD HD-A2 for $98. I purchased one thinking it can always be used for upscaling DVD if they lose the war. I also wanted to have HD versions of Transformers and the Bourne movies.

The HD-DVD hasn't performed very well at all. Twice during play it locked up and required unplugging before it would continue. I also had problems getting several SD DVDs to play. Thinking it was a defective unit, I returned it and bought the HD-A3. I should have taken the hint when first there was a warning to upgrade the firmware right in the top of the box. Another warning appeared following the initial setup in the manual. There were also warnings in each of the two movies I received with the player. Sure enough, on power-up I received vertical black and teil stripes, ticking in the audio and video dropping in and out. I performed the upgrade, but it resulted in no change.

I returned the unit and found a HD-D3 on sale and took it home only to discover the same bahavior. Checking back through my cabling I decided to run my HDMI directly to my Sony KDL52XBR5 display and video appeared. I had it running through my Sony flagship STR-DA5300ES w/HDMI 1.3, but it appears they don't communicate well with each other. Has anyone else had these experiences with their HD-DVD players? I have audio connected via optical, but I'd waited for a receiver with HDMI 1.3 and want the option of the new audio formats only available via HDMI. Any suggestions.

[hermanv]

Total sales penetration of both hardware and software is less than 5%, the current argument is whose sales are the most dismal HD or Blu-Ray. Currently there are no winners, period.

This industry can not and will not survive on 5% penetration. You may be as long winded as you wish in an attempt to squeeze just one more grain of wheat out of all that chaff, but until those sales numbers change, all bets are still on the table.

The epitaph may well read "Shortly before the formats death and withdrawal from the market Blu-Ray was declared the winner". I certainly remember all the articles about how superior BetaMax was as if that mattered, most of them were published after its' death.

Some of you made an early decision to support and adopt one format, now you seem determined to grasp any wisp of smoke to assure yourself that decision was the right one. I said I'll wait, and I am still waiting. I have a favorite, but have no problem in eventually changing to purchase the survivor if there is one, with one caveat. I still won't spend $30 or more just to buy the HiDef version of any of the junk that is supposed to pass today as a good movie.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Total sales penetration of both hardware and software is less than 5%, the current argument is whose sales are the most dismal HD or Blu-Ray. Currently there are no winners, period.

This is a horrible mischaracterization of what is happening NOW. Bluray is officially less than two years old. When it was OFFICIALLY launched(most manufacturers got players to market) didn't really occur until November of 2006. That makes this format 1 year and 1 month old. It is no small feat(DVD couldn't do it) to sell 600,000 standalone players during a format war where you are the price underdog. Your assesment assumes that the end has happened for bluray, and that is just not what is happening. It is just beginning. Since November bluray player sales are steadily increasing. Disc sales have already shown strong growth since the Warner announcement. Everyone in the film and video industry has declared bluray the winner, you need to catch up with current events

This industry can not and will not survive on 5% penetration. You may be as long winded as you wish in an attempt to squeeze just one more grain of wheat out of all that chaff, but until those sales numbers change, all bets are still on the table.

It can survive 5% market penitration this early in its life. It is a little illogical to think that everything has to happen this moment. Ever heard of growing a business?

The epitaph may well read "Shortly before the formats death and withdrawal from the market Blu-Ray was declared the winner". I certainly remember all the articles about how superior BetaMax was as if that mattered, most of them were published after its' death.

You sound just like the DVD naysayers verbatum.

Some of you made an early decision to support and adopt one format, now you seem determined to grasp any wisp of smoke to assure yourself that decision was the right one. I said I'll wait, and I am still waiting. I have a favorite, but have no problem in eventually changing to purchase the survivor if there is one, with one caveat. I still won't spend $30 or more just to buy the HiDef version of any of the junk that is supposed to pass today as a good movie.

Great, wait. But there is no need to spread poison while you are. You sound like you are justifying not purchasing, and there is no need for that. If you don't want in, don't. But what you are attempting to do is to not make a move, and convince others they shouldn't as well. I do not think that is fair or right to do this.

Not only did I buy a PS3, but I purchased over 250 movies as well. Thats how I show confidence in a format. If I had any inckling it would not survive, I would quit purchasing right then(like I did with HD DVD). But all of the information I see from NDP, all the market research done in my industry, and the trends of the market point to bluray.

Just to show you how strong bluray is relationshipship to its alternative. The final figures for 2007 came yesterday. Downloading did $123 million dollars in revenue, bluray all by itself did $290 million. It surpassed downloading in revenue in August of 2007. Downloading dropped from $212 million in 2006, with the biggest hit to VOD on cable. Apple was the big winner with 80% of that downloading revenue. So while the market for downloading and VOD shifted towards Apple downloads, the disc market shifted towards Bluray. In one year(2007) bluray blew past downloading to a little more than twice the revenue. So not bad for a format you think is dead. You are not really keeping up, the format war is over, and the market shift(and growth) has already begun.

When you look closer than from the moon, you can easily see how you are reading this quite wrong.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I'm a Sony video fan and work at their DADC facility in Indiana. I purchased a PS3 at the end of September and it's performed flawlessly with both DVD and Blu-ray discs. In Novenber Walmart had a one day sale on the HD-DVD HD-A2 for $98. I purchased one thinking it can always be used for upscaling DVD if they lose the war. I also wanted to have HD versions of Transformers and the Bourne movies.

The HD-DVD hasn't performed very well at all. Twice during play it locked up and required unplugging before it would continue. I also had problems getting several SD DVDs to play. Thinking it was a defective unit, I returned it and bought the HD-A3. I should have taken the hint when first there was a warning to upgrade the firmware right in the top of the box. Another warning appeared following the initial setup in the manual. There were also warnings in each of the two movies I received with the player. Sure enough, on power-up I received vertical black and teil stripes, ticking in the audio and video dropping in and out. I performed the upgrade, but it resulted in no change.

I returned the unit and found a HD-D3 on sale and took it home only to discover the same bahavior. Checking back through my cabling I decided to run my HDMI directly to my Sony KDL52XBR5 display and video appeared. I had it running through my Sony flagship STR-DA5300ES w/HDMI 1.3, but it appears they don't communicate well with each other. Has anyone else had these experiences with their HD-DVD players? I have audio connected via optical, but I'd waited for a receiver with HDMI 1.3 and want the option of the new audio formats only available via HDMI. Any suggestions.

My first A1 was a disaster. It hiccuped, froze, and could barely get through a movie. 4 firmware upgrade later, it became a decent player. My XA-1 was a total disaster. Returned it to get the XA-2. It function pretty well, but when they added the 24fps firmware upgrade, it continually lost dialog sync. When warner made their announcement, there was a huge dump of players on EBAY. I picked up a A-35 for $250. It has been a hit and miss on HD DVD movies, but a total kick with DVD. Toshiba just didn't not do well with its HD DVD line of players, and there were no other manufacturers willing to get in the HD DVD corner with other OEM designs. So we are all stuck with underperforming players. The PS3 has been the single best thing I have added to my hometheater in years. Excellent SACD playback, music streaming via Pandora, rock stable playback of both DVD and Bluray discs, excellent PQ and SQ, and full profile. This is a videophiles dream.

[pixelthis]

By golly you are right, it has been a whole 3 months since these opinions about actual sales figures were posted.

Nothing he disagrees with is a "fact". Probably thinks the world is flat.

AT any rate you have done it now, hes' posted another five miles of gibberish.
I don't have to read it to know thats what it is(consider the source)

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Nothing he disagrees with is a "fact". Probably thinks the world is flat.

AT any rate you have done it now, hes' posted another five miles of gibberish.
I don't have to read it to know thats what it is(consider the source)

All this from a person who makes opinions on things he never has seen, thinks the interlacing process is visible to the eye(must be tons of flickering devices in folks homes), who has supported nothing he has stated with links, figures, or supportable facts, and lives in a world that what he says is what everyone does. I guess when you are the National President of the Old People for Ignornace club, what more can you expect.