Blu Tide Continues to Turn: Porn Studios Ready to Abandon HD-DVD?

[Woochifer]

HD-DVD's uphill battle seems to get steeper and steeper as the news stacks up.

Wow, not too long ago, the HD-DVD proponents were declaring that porn would turn the tide against Blu-ray, arguing that porn helped VHS get over on Betamax. Given how the sales trends have gone (i.e., Blu-ray outselling HD-DVD every week in 2007), that has not happened. Even though a lot has been written about Sony not accepting Blu-ray duplicating jobs for porn titles, porn titles have already gone out on Blu-ray, so some other duplicating houses are accepting the porn jobs.

Well, now it turns out that porn studios are seeing the market shifts and might be ready to abandon HD-DVD. Apparently, the talk at the AVN porn convention (which overlaps CES) centered on studios abandoning HD-DVD. Digital Playground, purportedly the leading HD porn distributor, is apparently set to drop HD-DVD by the end of the year.

http://www.i4u.com/article14003.html

Other not-so-favorable signs for HD-DVD have also cropped up.

Aside from the persistent rumors about Universal and Paramount, Warner has already taken a subtle but significant step back in its HD-DVD support. While they have not dropped previously announced titles (a la Paramount), they have begun to stagger the HD-DVD releases while retaining concurrent release dates for the DVD and Blu-ray versions. For example, I Am Legend is due out on DVD and Blu-ray on March 18, while the HD-DVD version will not come out until "early April." Also, Twister: Special Edition comes out May 6 on DVD and Blu-ray, while the HD-DVD version hits stores three weeks later on May 27.

Also, a Home Media article refers to a preliminary tabulation of last week's Nielson sales data. Again, not a good sign for HD-DVD. Apparently, last week's sales figures show HD-DVD with only a 15% market share of HD discs. This is significant because 1) last week was the first full sales week after Warner's announcement; and 2) this is the biggest one-week sales lead that Blu-ray has had.

If this holds up in the final tabulation, then it's safe to say that the Warner announcement has already reverberated down to the retail level, in effect stopping HD-DVD sales cold. If consumers have already stopped purchasing HD-DVDs, then it won't take long before retailers begin phasing out their HD-DVD sections (if they haven't already). At that point, it won't matter what Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal decide on HD-DVD, the retailers and consumers will have already made the decision for them.

[GMichael]

Porn? Now you're talking downloading-R-us.
But yet another domino is falling.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

HD-DVD's uphill battle seems to get steeper and steeper as the news stacks up.

Wow, not too long ago, the HD-DVD proponents were declaring that porn would turn the tide against Blu-ray, arguing that porn helped VHS get over on Betamax. Given how the sales trends have gone (i.e., Blu-ray outselling HD-DVD every week in 2007), that has not happened. Even though a lot has been written about Sony not accepting Blu-ray duplicating jobs for porn titles, porn titles have already gone out on Blu-ray, so some other duplicating houses are accepting the porn jobs.

Well, now it turns out that porn studios are seeing the market shifts and might be ready to abandon HD-DVD. Apparently, the talk at the AVN porn convention (which overlaps CES) centered on studios abandoning HD-DVD. Digital Playground, purportedly the leading HD porn distributor, is apparently set to drop HD-DVD by the end of the year.

http://www.i4u.com/article14003.html

Other not-so-favorable signs for HD-DVD have also cropped up.

Aside from the persistent rumors about Universal and Paramount, Warner has already taken a subtle but significant step back in its HD-DVD support. While they have not dropped previously announced titles (a la Paramount), they have begun to stagger the HD-DVD releases while retaining concurrent release dates for the DVD and Blu-ray versions. For example, I Am Legend is due out on DVD and Blu-ray on March 18, while the HD-DVD version will not come out until "early April." Also, Twister: Special Edition comes out May 6 on DVD and Blu-ray, while the HD-DVD version hits stores three weeks later on May 27.

Also, a Home Media article refers to a preliminary tabulation of last week's Nielson sales data. Again, not a good sign for HD-DVD. Apparently, last week's sales figures show HD-DVD with only a 15% market share of HD discs. This is significant because 1) last week was the first full sales week after Warner's announcement; and 2) this is the biggest one-week sales lead that Blu-ray has had.

If this holds up in the final tabulation, then it's safe to say that the Warner announcement has already reverberated down to the retail level, in effect stopping HD-DVD sales cold. If consumers have already stopped purchasing HD-DVDs, then it won't take long before retailers begin phasing out their HD-DVD sections (if they haven't already). At that point, it won't matter what Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal decide on HD-DVD, the retailers and consumers will have already made the decision for them.

I am going to leak something here, but I can. I have strong word within the BDA itself that a certain very large big box store will be going blu as well. The deal is not inked yet, but I hear after the Warner announcement, negotiations got quite a bit more positive.

[GMichael]

I am going to leak something here, but I can. I have strong word within the BDA itself that a certain very large big box store will be going blu as well. The deal is not inked yet, but I hear after the Warner announcement, negotiations got quite a bit more positive.

I'm betting on Wally world. I haven't seen a single HD-DVD player in their store since the big $99 blow out.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Blu light specials!!!

Get it?

[pixelthis]

Blu light specials!!!

Get it?

Thats what I'm waiting for.
I actually went into Circuit to get a Sony Blu, but they said the sale was off, so I told them
I would wait.
If its over for porn as far as HD is concerned, thats it, nobody likes to admit it but porn is a
major driving force for any new format, the slow adoption of porn in the laser format is what killed it.
The British have an expression, "tits up" for something thats dead, a saying that certainly seems apropo in more ways than one in this situation

[Ajani]

Ok.... I can't believe I'm sticking my foot in a format war thread... but here goes:

Isn't the biggest threat to either format not each other or even traditional DVD, but downloadable content?

I think both HD DVD and Blu Ray shoud be sweating now that Apple TV will be allowing consumers to buy/rent HD Movies from the comfort of their sofa. And I don't think apple wiil be the last company to provide such a service... I really think that downloads are in and physical media is on the slow crawl out (or at least to a niche market, much like vinyl)... I don't think the current MP3/4 generation is really that interested in a stack of optical discs lying around the sofa when they can just have it all stored in a tiny box attached to the tv...

As for porn.... I don't think it really matters whether HD DVD or Blu Ray adopts/doesn't adopt porn anymore... that was a major sales driver in the 80s but far less so now.... Yes porn viewing will and probably always will be a massive market, but I strongly suspect that most of the porn consumed today is downloaded/streamed (whether paid for or pirated)...

[GMichael]

AND............
WE'RE OFF...

HD-DVD takes the early lead....
Blu-Ray is coming up fast...
Downloads are threatening...

HD stumbles..
Blu takes the lead...
Downloads still trailing...

HD buys off one of the judges and pulls ahead again...
Blu stays steady...
Downloads fighting with a flicker...

HD!
Blu-Ray!
Downloads!

HD stumbles again!
Blu runs it down and kicks it on the way...
Downloads move past HD.

Blu-Ray!
Downloads!
HD trailing off...

Dust is everywhere!
Who can see who's ahead?
It's..
It's...











To be continued.

[nightflier]

Wooch,

I thought that this wasn't the porn industry's choice. Wasn't it Sony that played the prude card and said no smut on our disks? I know there are loopholes, but if Sony holds to that line, then porn may be without a hi def home - viagra for the proponents of downloading, if you ask me.

And I know, it's been said, but I just don't see people wanting their smut in hi-def. I'm guessing that most porn is "consumed" by single people who aren't really about enjoying it on a big screen with an audience. This is really one type on content that lends itself ideally to a digital, compressed, small-screen medium and not hi-def.

Maybe it would be in the BR consortium's interest to relax it's conservative stance and allow porn on it's disks, just to stem the tide to the online alternative....

[Woochifer]

I thought that this wasn't the porn industry's choice. Wasn't it Sony that played the prude card and said no smut on our disks? I know there are loopholes, but if Sony holds to that line, then porn may be without a hi def home - viagra for the proponents of downloading, if you ask me.

All that Sony said was that they would not accept any adults only jobs at their Blu-ray replicating facilities, which is nothing more than an extension of a long-standing policy that they have had in place for their DVD replicating lines. Sony's not the only Blu-ray replicator out there, and Sony exercises no control over what duplicating jobs the other Blu-ray replicators take. Apparently, plenty of HD porn titles have already rolled out on Blu-ray, so there's no shortage of takers out there.

How this got twisted into a "no porn on Blu-ray; porn on HD-DVD will win the format war just like VHS beat Betamax because of porn" story is just another example of how facts get bent when viewed through fanboi lenses.

And I know, it's been said, but I just don't see people wanting their smut in hi-def. I'm guessing that most porn is "consumed" by single people who aren't really about enjoying it on a big screen with an audience. This is really one type on content that lends itself ideally to a digital, compressed, small-screen medium and not hi-def.

Maybe it would be in the BR consortium's interest to relax it's conservative stance and allow porn on it's disks, just to stem the tide to the online alternative....

Nothing to do with a conservative stances, porn on Blu-ray is already out there and apparently outselling the HD-DVD versions. Whether or not people want to actually see porn in HD is another story altogether.

[L.J.]

I'm betting on Wally world. I haven't seen a single HD-DVD player in their store since the big $99 blow out.

I'm thinking Best Buy. The 2 near me has gone from 50/50 to 70/30 shelf space in favor of Bluray.

[Woochifer]

Ok.... I can't believe I'm sticking my foot in a format war thread... but here goes:

Isn't the biggest threat to either format not each other or even traditional DVD, but downloadable content?

Why can't you believe it? Here you are.

As I've pointed out several times, downloadable content does not threaten disc media so long as the files themselves are locked down with usage limitations and expiration dates. With those limits in place, downloads are nothing more than an extension of the PPV, VOD, and rental markets. The DVD has turned the home video market into a purchase-driven market, where consumers expect to keep the content that they purchase and have unlimited access.

I think both HD DVD and Blu Ray shoud be sweating now that Apple TV will be allowing consumers to buy/rent HD Movies from the comfort of their sofa. And I don't think apple wiil be the last company to provide such a service... I really think that downloads are in and physical media is on the slow crawl out (or at least to a niche market, much like vinyl)... I don't think the current MP3/4 generation is really that interested in a stack of optical discs lying around the sofa when they can just have it all stored in a tiny box attached to the tv...

And how different is Apple TV from any of the other PPV and VOD options currently available? There is a measure of selection and convenience that Apple adds to the market, but fundamentally they are not all that different from services that are already on the market.

Remember who holds the keys to the content -- the studios. Disc media is a high margin, low cost product with an established distribution network. Downloads are an unproven market, with lower revenue per transaction and a Balkanized distribution network with separate deals and conditions having to be negotiated with each distributor. Apple is a significant player in this market, but they're a big fish in a little pond. The 24-hour viewing limit on their new Apple TV movie downloads is an indication that they currently hold little sway with the studios, otherwise why would Apple agree to these kinds of restrictions? Until downloading can demonstrate much greater revenue potential, the studios will continue to give priority to retail sell-through products.

As far as the "tiny boxes" go, how many movies can an Apple TV unit store? In high def, an 80 GB unit will run out of space in a hurry. If consumers have to keep deleting movies in order to watch new ones, then this is no substitute for a "stack of optical discs" since those "tiny boxes" would only place a very short stack of those optical discs.

[Ajani]

Why can't you believe it? Here you are.

lol

As I've pointed out several times, downloadable content does not threaten disc media so long as the files themselves are locked down with usage limitations and expiration dates. With those limits in place, downloads are nothing more than an extension of the PPV, VOD, and rental markets. The DVD has turned the home video market into a purchase-driven market, where consumers expect to keep the content that they purchase and have unlimited access

And how different is Apple TV from any of the other PPV and VOD options currently available? There is a measure of selection and convenience that Apple adds to the market, but fundamentally they are not all that different from services that are already on the market.

Remember who holds the keys to the content -- the studios. Disc media is a high margin, low cost product with an established distribution network. Downloads are an unproven market, with lower revenue per transaction and a Balkanized distribution network with separate deals and conditions having to be negotiated with each distributor. Apple is a significant player in this market, but they're a big fish in a little pond. The 24-hour viewing limit on their new Apple TV movie downloads is an indication that they currently hold little sway with the studios, otherwise why would Apple agree to these kinds of restrictions? Until downloading can demonstrate much greater revenue potential, the studios will continue to give priority to retail sell-through products.

Agreed, but I am looking at the format war as being very long term as it will take years for a new standard to emerge. I don't expect usage limitations to be a long term issue - just take the recent trend towards non-DRM tracks on i-tunes... most likely the studios will just charge premiums for content without limitations....

Right now Apple TV may only be a rental site for HD and hence just like VOD or PPV but I suspect they will move towards actual sales just as they do with music.

Also, Expiration dates are only for rentals, so it won't be an issue with purchased content...

As far as the "tiny boxes" go, how many movies can an Apple TV unit store? In high def, an 80 GB unit will run out of space in a hurry. If consumers have to keep deleting movies in order to watch new ones, then this is no substitute for a "stack of optical discs" since those "tiny boxes" would only place a very short stack of those optical discs.

I think they have 40 and 160 GB units

Seriously though, you should keep in mind one other factor when talking about storage - downloaded content is not limited to the apple tv unit... it has wireless access to your computer and network storage devices.... so you can add as much storage as you want... And in-line with my long term theme, storage becomes less of an issue each year as hard-drives get larger and cheaper....

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

lol




Agreed, but I am looking at the format war as being very long term as it will take years for a new standard to emerge. I don't expect usage limitations to be a long term issue - just take the recent trend towards non-DRM tracks on i-tunes... most likely the studios will just charge premiums for content without limitations....

This format war is pretty much through now. Before the end of the year all the studio will be selling movies on bluray disc. I can tell you right now and this is a fact. Paramount is going neutral SOONER than you think. Universal may not make a move until the fall, but Paramount has essentially gotten out of its exclusive clause with the Warner move.

You will not see MOVIE content without DRM for a long while. The studio are much too deep in a piracy mindset, that I believe the trend will be toward more DRM than less. Consider the fact that BR disc are locked down with already compromised AACS, uncracked BD+, and BD watermark. The studio are just too paranoid about releasing content unlock. Unlike music, the value of film has a very long life.

Right now Apple TV may only be a rental site for HD and hence just like VOD or PPV but I suspect they will move towards actual sales just as they do with music.

It will be quite a while before the sales of downloads becomes feasible. Unlike a disc, downloads cannot be transferred between devices even after it is sold. You can play a bluray disc on any bluray player. Secondly the business stinks right now, as Google, Walmart and another download business(cannot remember the name) have all closed or gone under trying to sell downloads. A feasible business model just is not there, especially as long as discs are being sold. Remember, the culture has been buy and own since the late nineties. It isn't going to change in two years. It is going to be a while before the average person is going to be comfortable paying for downloaded non physical files.

Also, Expiration dates are only for rentals, so it won't be an issue with purchased content...

Yes, but non portability will be an issue.

Seriously though, you should keep in mind one other factor when talking about storage - downloaded content is not limited to the apple tv unit... it has wireless access to your computer and network storage devices.... so you can add as much storage as you want... And in-line with my long term theme, storage becomes less of an issue each year as hard-drives get larger and cheaper....

This really is not where the culture is at. Survey after survey the Hollywood studios have conducted shows that the public is still attached to the disc for its convience. You pull it out of the case, put it into the player, and press play. The public is not ready to maintian alot of primary drives and backup drives to keep their collections managed. Putting a Bluray disc on a shelf is much more manageable to most folks at this moment. This will change in the future as young people(who use computers from birth) become adults and bring the culture shift with them. We are just not at that threshold just yet.

[Ajani]

..... Putting a Bluray disc on a shelf is much more manageable to most folks at this moment. This will change in the future as young people(who use computers from birth) become adults and bring the culture shift with them. We are just not at that threshold just yet.

Agreed.... I expect the sale of discs to continue for many years... but eventually downloads will win out...

Also.... I'm not sure how important Blu Ray conquering HD-DVD actually will be... I still see this war much like the SACD vs DVD-A war.... pretty much going nowhere... Both SACD and DVD-A have become niche market products and neither are likely to ever replace the redbook CD as the optical disc standard.... Even if Blu Ray totally annihilates HD-DVD this year, I doubt it will be able to overtake traditional DVDs as the new standard (not unless it manages to sell both players and discs at the exact same price as standard dvds)....

[Woochifer]

Agreed, but I am looking at the format war as being very long term as it will take years for a new standard to emerge. I don't expect usage limitations to be a long term issue - just take the recent trend towards non-DRM tracks on i-tunes... most likely the studios will just charge premiums for content without limitations....

Terrence already addressed most of these issues. Within a few years, we'll know whether Blu-ray supplants the DVD format. I doubt that the download market will have taken off by that point. It's naive to think that the movie studios will take the locks off of their content if sell-through products remain their most profitable niche.

I would add that the video market has a very different orientation than the audio market. Audio has been evolving towards increasing mobility and portability for the better part of 50 years. MP3s, iPods, etc. are simply the latest incarnation of a process that began with the successive introductions of portable record players, car audio systems, boomboxes, Walkmans, cassette players, and 8-tracks.

Video by its nature does not demand portability. If you look at the current trends, it's dominated by increased screen sizes and resolution. Hardly the push towards mobility that you see on the audio side, where the iPod dominates.

I think they have 40 and 160 GB units

And even 160 GB can only displace a very limited number of discs when we're talking about HD. Consider that a Blu-ray disc holds about 50 GB, so that Apple TV either has to dial up the compression (and compromise the video quality), or compromise the audio quality (which they already do, as Apple TV is only now getting into 5.1 audio), or eliminate the bonus features (which they already do).

Seriously though, you should keep in mind one other factor when talking about storage - downloaded content is not limited to the apple tv unit... it has wireless access to your computer and network storage devices.... so you can add as much storage as you want... And in-line with my long term theme, storage becomes less of an issue each year as hard-drives get larger and cheaper....

But, if the content has to be registered to a playback device (like all other VOD, PPV, and other downloaded content is required to), then it won't matter how big a hard drive you have if there's no easy and open path to get that stored content over to your TV, unless you have a computer hooked up to it.

You say this is long-term, and I agree. But, I think the time frame for any kind of online setup to replace disc media goes beyond Blu-ray's shelf life.

Also.... I'm not sure how important Blu Ray conquering HD-DVD actually will be... I still see this war much like the SACD vs DVD-A war.... pretty much going nowhere... Both SACD and DVD-A have become niche market products and neither are likely to ever replace the redbook CD as the optical disc standard.... Even if Blu Ray totally annihilates HD-DVD this year, I doubt it will be able to overtake traditional DVDs as the new standard (not unless it manages to sell both players and discs at the exact same price as standard dvds)....

The tired comparisons between Blu-ray/HD-DVD and SACD/DVD-A do not apply for one critical reason -- the movie studios are solidly behind HD disc media, whereas the record companies' support for DVD-A and SACD was tepid at best. The movie studios have been scheduling concurrent day-and-date releases for their major DVD and Blu-ray/HD-DVD titles, while the record companies issued hardly any SACDs or DVD-As at the same time as the CDs. Studio support is crucial, and given how DVD sales fell for the first time last year, the studios are looking to recoup DVD sales losses by transitioning consumers to Blu-ray as quickly as possible.

I think the DVD transition will occur as people replace their old DVD players with combo Blu-ray players. Once Blu-ray players dip below $200, then the sales will pick up and at that point I think demand for Blu-ray will pick up for new releases.

[Ajani]

I would add that the video market has a very different orientation than the audio market. Audio has been evolving towards increasing mobility and portability for the better part of 50 years. MP3s, iPods, etc. are simply the latest incarnation of a process that began with the successive introductions of portable record players, car audio systems, boomboxes, Walkmans, cassette players, and 8-tracks.

Video by its nature does not demand portability. If you look at the current trends, it's dominated by increased screen sizes and resolution. Hardly the push towards mobility that you see on the audio side, where the iPod dominates.

While I agree with the comments about increasing screen sizes and resolutions being the trend in video... keep in mind that all of these increases in sizes and res have come hand in hand with decreasing costs each year... 2 years ago a 52 inch lcd projection tv and most 32 inch LCDS were selling for around $2K, now they can be had for around $1k (the new models, not used ones!). The audio market has not been nearly as advanced in pushing higher quality products at lower prices (quite possibly because audio companies often use a 5 year shelf life for their products while TV models are upgraded every year OR the audio companies are just greedy and lazy).

You say this is long-term, and I agree. But, I think the time frame for any kind of online setup to replace disc media goes beyond Blu-ray's shelf life.

That is possible, since blu-ray has already been around for a few years and if it fails to supplant standard dvds, then its shelf life may be even shorter...

The tired comparisons between Blu-ray/HD-DVD and SACD/DVD-A do not apply for one critical reason -- the movie studios are solidly behind HD disc media, whereas the record companies' support for DVD-A and SACD was tepid at best. The movie studios have been scheduling concurrent day-and-date releases for their major DVD and Blu-ray/HD-DVD titles, while the record companies issued hardly any SACDs or DVD-As at the same time as the CDs. Studio support is crucial, and given how DVD sales fell for the first time last year, the studios are looking to recoup DVD sales losses by transitioning consumers to Blu-ray as quickly as possible.

I think the DVD transition will occur as people replace their old DVD players with combo Blu-ray players. Once Blu-ray players dip below $200, then the sales will pick up and at that point I think demand for Blu-ray will pick up for new releases.

While I see the relevance of studio support and agree that the new video formats have far more studio support than the audio formats have, I think they KEY factor is the consumer and not the studios.... Blu-Ray/HD-DVD are still luxury products (since dvd is still much cheaper).... Studios can push an expensive format all they want, but it doesn't mean anything unless the customers are willing to purchase it....

I agree wholeheartedly with the point about players dropping below $200 increasing sales... but keep in mind that consumers (not all, but a very significant portion) like lower prices... so as I've said before... when HD format sell for the price of regular dvd products then they can easily take over the dvd market (as long as they accomplish that before downloads take off).

The Trend in video is a good one and hopefully will continue: better reslolution and larger scale at decreasing prices - once Blu-Ray and HD-DVD catch up with this trend (lower prices) then they may have a chance to supplant DVD before downloads takes over the market.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

While I agree with the comments about increasing screen sizes and resolutions being the trend in video... keep in mind that all of these increases in sizes and res have come hand in hand with decreasing costs each year... 2 years ago a 52 inch lcd projection tv and most 32 inch LCDS were selling for around $2K, now they can be had for around $1k (the new models, not used ones!). The audio market has not been nearly as advanced in pushing higher quality products at lower prices (quite possibly because audio companies often use a 5 year shelf life for their products while TV models are upgraded every year OR the audio companies are just greedy and lazy).

Television technology marches forward, and as it does, prices come down. As consumers buy up these things like hot cakes, the forces of economy of scale kicks in. The Walkman portable cassette and CD players benefitted from this. The video world has benefitted from this with each successive format that has come out. Whether you are taling televisions, DVD or bluray players. This only works if the industry is healthy, and the music industry is not very healthy right now. You are correct in two areas. The record companies are greedy, and that greed is fueling alot of fear, and they do use a 5 year shelf life.

That is possible, since blu-ray has already been around for a few years and if it fails to supplant standard dvds, then its shelf life may be even shorter...

Funny thing is, they said this about the DVD when VHS was king. The easist way to get the public to embrace bluray is to slowly de-emphasize the DVD. By releasing the bluray first with interactive features and other content the DVD will not have, heavily promoting this along with the fact its HD, you can get the public to gravite towards it while not endangering DVD sales to those who are not ready to make the switch. Keep in mind, the studios and the CE manufacturers have been through this transition before. This is how they did the VHS to DVD transition.

While I see the relevance of studio support and agree that the new video formats have far more studio support than the audio formats have, I think they KEY factor is the consumer and not the studios.... Blu-Ray/HD-DVD are still luxury products (since dvd is still much cheaper).... Studios can push an expensive format all they want, but it doesn't mean anything unless the customers are willing to purchase it....

VHS was much cheaper than DVD in the beginning. As the economy of scale kicked in, that change pretty dramatically. My first DVD player was a $1200 first generation Toshiba 3008. It couldn't even do Dts. In less than two years most DVD players were about $500. At CES almost all of the new models were priced under $500. You can find a Sony S300 for $268 on Amazon. That same player was $499 three months ago. You can find a Samsung 1400 for $288 online, and four months ago it was $599. As each generation comes online, the preceeding generation prices drop considerably. Interestingly enough, the price drop of bluray players has come alot quicker than the prices of DVD players at this same time in its history. Time doesn't freeze, and neither do prices of CE.

I agree wholeheartedly with the point about players dropping below $200 increasing sales... but keep in mind that consumers (not all, but a very significant portion) like lower prices... so as I've said before... when HD format sell for the price of regular dvd products then they can easily take over the dvd market (as long as they accomplish that before downloads take off).

Isn't apple a pretty sucessful company? Let's face it their computers are not cheaper than their competition, they are more expensive. But Apple is doing well, very well. The public will pay for what they want, regardless of price. HD DVD came out of the gate cheaper than bluray. Inspite of this there were more Bluray players sold in December leading up to christmas than HD DVD players. Even the bluray enable PS3 which was at one time more expensive than most HD DVD players outsold them all.

According to every analyst that covers the film and video industry says that downloading to own has years to go. The market for rentals is pretty stagnant in terms of revenue, and while demand is there for computer savvy folks, the general public has not shown much interest in letting go those disc.

The Trend in video is a good one and hopefully will continue: better reslolution and larger scale at decreasing prices - once Blu-Ray and HD-DVD catch up with this trend (lower prices) then they may have a chance to supplant DVD before downloads takes over the market.

Apparently the studio believe the latter. I know the studios( and the one I work for in particular) have done extensive research on the feasible of switching to downloading, and the research at this point is very negative and looks that way for at least 5-10 years. You just cannot erase a culture of disc purchasing(going back to vinyl) in a few short years. That kind of culture shift will take decades.

[pixelthis]

lol




Agreed, but I am looking at the format war as being very long term as it will take years for a new standard to emerge. I don't expect usage limitations to be a long term issue - just take the recent trend towards non-DRM tracks on i-tunes... most likely the studios will just charge premiums for content without limitations....

Right now Apple TV may only be a rental site for HD and hence just like VOD or PPV but I suspect they will move towards actual sales just as they do with music.

Also, Expiration dates are only for rentals, so it won't be an issue with purchased content...





I think they have 40 and 160 GB units

Seriously though, you should keep in mind one other factor when talking about storage - downloaded content is not limited to the apple tv unit... it has wireless access to your computer and network storage devices.... so you can add as much storage as you want... And in-line with my long term theme, storage becomes less of an issue each year as hard-drives get larger and cheaper....

the hard drive size doesnt matter , most of vod and downloads will be gone 24hrs after you watch them.
And you're right, the future of rental at least is downloading, and work is ongoing to
set up a business model whereby you can collect movies, they are just stored on servers,
you dont have to worry about "upgrading" to 2,000p, JUST GET A 2000P display
and you can choose 2000 p whenever you watch a movie.
But you will never convince sir talky of this , he is totally oblivious, which figures since he works for Sony, a company that is known for its exelent tech and lousey marketing.
You think 1080p is the end? The idea is to sell everybody a 1080p player, them when 2000p
is debuted in a decade , sell new players and discs to people, just like with DVD.
The idea is to keep selling players and discs, at least thats the idea for dinosaur companies that dont realize that the asteroid of downloading and a wired world has hit

[Woochifer]

While I agree with the comments about increasing screen sizes and resolutions being the trend in video... keep in mind that all of these increases in sizes and res have come hand in hand with decreasing costs each year... 2 years ago a 52 inch lcd projection tv and most 32 inch LCDS were selling for around $2K, now they can be had for around $1k (the new models, not used ones!). The audio market has not been nearly as advanced in pushing higher quality products at lower prices (quite possibly because audio companies often use a 5 year shelf life for their products while TV models are upgraded every year OR the audio companies are just greedy and lazy).

But, you're making my point here. The trend on the video side is towards larger screen sizes and higher resolutions at more affordable price points. It further entrenches the home living room/media room as the primary viewing place for video content.

The audio side is all about mobility. The iPod sales alone more than TRIPLED the revenue for all home audio components COMBINED. The innovation there is in increasing the functionality and utility of downloaded and ripped audio content. And like I said, that's nothing more than a continuation of a trend towards mobility that's been ongoing in the audio industry for the better part of 50 years.

The video side sees no such move towards mobility. Yes, there are more portable devices that can play downloaded videos, but that capability does not drive sales, whereas larger screens and higher resolutions are driving sales.

That is possible, since blu-ray has already been around for a few years and if it fails to supplant standard dvds, then its shelf life may be even shorter...

What calendar are you reading? The first Blu-ray players came out less than 2 years ago. And the format war is only now getting sorted out, so the big market push for Blu-ray hasn't even begun yet. But, even so, it's still much further along than any of the downloading plans out there.

While I see the relevance of studio support and agree that the new video formats have far more studio support than the audio formats have, I think they KEY factor is the consumer and not the studios.... Blu-Ray/HD-DVD are still luxury products (since dvd is still much cheaper).... Studios can push an expensive format all they want, but it doesn't mean anything unless the customers are willing to purchase it....

Of course the key factor is the consumer, but without studio support, the consumers are a nonfactor.

As for Blu-ray/HD-DVD being luxury products, what's your criteria? HD-DVD players are readily available for under $200, and Blu-ray players are already below $300. When the DVD players began outselling VCRs, DVD players still cost more than $200. Were DVD players still "luxury products" when they outsold VHS?

I agree wholeheartedly with the point about players dropping below $200 increasing sales... but keep in mind that consumers (not all, but a very significant portion) like lower prices... so as I've said before... when HD format sell for the price of regular dvd products then they can easily take over the dvd market (as long as they accomplish that before downloads take off).

Of course, consumers like lower prices, but keep in mind that Blu-ray/HD-DVD price declines have already occurred at far sharper rates than when the DVD format was introduced. But, for Blu-ray to supplant the DVD format does not require that Blu-ray players to price match what DVD players cost.

If consumers perceive greater value in Blu-ray's higher resolution and enhanced features, then they will pay for it. After all, the DVD format took over from VHS when VCRs were selling for less than $100 or about half of what DVD players cost. The DVD format took over because consumers saw the extra value that the DVD format represented, and willingly paid for it.

[Ajani]

But, you're making my point here. The trend on the video side is towards larger screen sizes and higher resolutions at more affordable price points. It further entrenches the home living room/media room as the primary viewing place for video content.

The audio side is all about mobility. The iPod sales alone more than TRIPLED the revenue for all home audio components COMBINED. The innovation there is in increasing the functionality and utility of downloaded and ripped audio content. And like I said, that's nothing more than a continuation of a trend towards mobility that's been ongoing in the audio industry for the better part of 50 years.

The video side sees no such move towards mobility. Yes, there are more portable devices that can play downloaded videos, but that capability does not drive sales, whereas larger screens and higher resolutions are driving sales.

I don't think we disagree on this point. Video is mostly about 'bigger and better' with only a small emphasis on 'portable and convenient', while audio is generally the reverse (with audiophiles driving the bigger and better segment of the market).

But I'm just not convinced that this as a result of consumers being willing to pay for 'bigger and better' or whether it is as a result of the fact that 'bigger and better' keeps getting cheaper and more available.

I see it much like a consumer looking to buy a new car, imagine that you have a budget of 15K and instead of the usual Corolla and Civic options you can now get a BMW 3 Or a Mercedes C class... I think you might well just buy the BMW/Mercedes... now if the BMW/Mercedes were 30K you'd probably just stick with the Civic/Corolla...

Video has tended to be like this... I bought a 52 Inch Panasonic LCD Projection about 2 years ago... despite the fact that I've always been more into audio than video... but because of the falling prices on tvs, I found that a large screen was in my budget, so I bought it... Now had it remained at the much higher prices of just a few years before then I would have gladly settled with a 27inch tv...

I think Video is mostly about price (yes VHS is to some extent an exception, but I'll deal with that further down).

What calendar are you reading? The first Blu-ray players came out less than 2 years ago. And the format war is only now getting sorted out, so the big market push for Blu-ray hasn't even begun yet. But, even so, it's still much further along than any of the downloading plans out there.

Ok.... I'll stand corrected.... I used a few to mean 2 as I pretty much just rounded up the figure (cuz I was sure Blu Ray had been around for more than a year but was feeling too lazy to go research an exact figure...)

Of course the key factor is the consumer, but without studio support, the consumers are a nonfactor.

As for Blu-ray/HD-DVD being luxury products, what's your criteria? HD-DVD players are readily available for under $200, and Blu-ray players are already below $300. When the DVD players began outselling VCRs, DVD players still cost more than $200. Were DVD players still "luxury products" when they outsold VHS?

Of course, consumers like lower prices, but keep in mind that Blu-ray/HD-DVD price declines have already occurred at far sharper rates than when the DVD format was introduced. But, for Blu-ray to supplant the DVD format does not require that Blu-ray players to price match what DVD players cost.

If consumers perceive greater value in Blu-ray's higher resolution and enhanced features, then they will pay for it. After all, the DVD format took over from VHS when VCRs were selling for less than $100 or about half of what DVD players cost. The DVD format took over because consumers saw the extra value that the DVD format represented, and willingly paid for it.

Now as for VHS vs DVD... as much as you despise the music comparisons... it is much like Cassettes and CDs.... in both cases you were dealing with more than just an inferior picture/sound.... video/sound quality were not the only factors in making optical discs (digital) dominant over analog sources....

Digital offered significant new convenience in both audio and video:

1) Track/Scene selection -> Not having to hit fast forward/rewind to find a scene/song was a major breakthrough on the convenience front.

2) The product was more durable (analog sources tended to degrade over time) - Try watching a VHS over and over, versus watching a DVD over and over....

3) Portability/storage - it's much easier to carry a case full of cds in the car than a stack of cassettes... and a stack of dvds still takes up far less space than a stack of VHS tapes...

While HD-DVD/BLU-RAY/SACD/DVD-A Versus DVD/CD are just a case of digital versus better digital.... so it is a very different war from the earlier analog versus digital one....

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

the hard drive size doesnt matter , most of vod and downloads will be gone 24hrs after you watch them.
And you're right, the future of rental at least is downloading, and work is ongoing to
set up a business model whereby you can collect movies, they are just stored on servers,
you dont have to worry about "upgrading" to 2,000p, JUST GET A 2000P display
and you can choose 2000 p whenever you watch a movie.
But you will never convince sir talky of this , he is totally oblivious, which figures since he works for Sony, a company that is known for its exelent tech and lousey marketing.
You think 1080p is the end? The idea is to sell everybody a 1080p player, them when 2000p
is debuted in a decade , sell new players and discs to people, just like with DVD.
The idea is to keep selling players and discs, at least thats the idea for dinosaur companies that dont realize that the asteroid of downloading and a wired world has hit

Hey pixel brain, are you SURE I work for Sony, or are you just guessing? I think you are just guessing because I do not work for Sony at all.

Secondly 2000p( which is really 2160p) is much more suited for movie theaters than hometheater. You need a REALLY large screen size to realize the benefits of 2160p, not to mention a huge pipeline for the signals, and ultra large storage to hold it. 2160p does not make any sense for the home.

Your last statement is stupid as hell. When you have a $42 billion dollar market in disc sales, and a $200 million market in downloads, only an idiot would chose to support downloads. Downloading as a everyday practice is not here yet, and won't be for at least a decade. Informed and knowledgeable folks know this, and some little kid doing armchair analysis need to learn this.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

HD-DVD's uphill battle seems to get steeper and steeper as the news stacks up.

Wow, not too long ago, the HD-DVD proponents were declaring that porn would turn the tide against Blu-ray, arguing that porn helped VHS get over on Betamax. Given how the sales trends have gone (i.e., Blu-ray outselling HD-DVD every week in 2007), that has not happened. Even though a lot has been written about Sony not accepting Blu-ray duplicating jobs for porn titles, porn titles have already gone out on Blu-ray, so some other duplicating houses are accepting the porn jobs.

Well, now it turns out that porn studios are seeing the market shifts and might be ready to abandon HD-DVD. Apparently, the talk at the AVN porn convention (which overlaps CES) centered on studios abandoning HD-DVD. Digital Playground, purportedly the leading HD porn distributor, is apparently set to drop HD-DVD by the end of the year.

http://www.i4u.com/article14003.html

Other not-so-favorable signs for HD-DVD have also cropped up.

Aside from the persistent rumors about Universal and Paramount, Warner has already taken a subtle but significant step back in its HD-DVD support. While they have not dropped previously announced titles (a la Paramount), they have begun to stagger the HD-DVD releases while retaining concurrent release dates for the DVD and Blu-ray versions. For example, I Am Legend is due out on DVD and Blu-ray on March 18, while the HD-DVD version will not come out until "early April." Also, Twister: Special Edition comes out May 6 on DVD and Blu-ray, while the HD-DVD version hits stores three weeks later on May 27.

Also, a Home Media article refers to a preliminary tabulation of last week's Nielson sales data. Again, not a good sign for HD-DVD. Apparently, last week's sales figures show HD-DVD with only a 15% market share of HD discs. This is significant because 1) last week was the first full sales week after Warner's announcement; and 2) this is the biggest one-week sales lead that Blu-ray has had.

If this holds up in the final tabulation, then it's safe to say that the Warner announcement has already reverberated down to the retail level, in effect stopping HD-DVD sales cold. If consumers have already stopped purchasing HD-DVDs, then it won't take long before retailers begin phasing out their HD-DVD sections (if they haven't already). At that point, it won't matter what Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal decide on HD-DVD, the retailers and consumers will have already made the decision for them.

Great info, now empty you PM box, you have mail bro bro!

[pixelthis]

Hey pixel brain, are you SURE I work for Sony, or are you just guessing? I think you are just guessing because I do not work for Sony at all.

Secondly 2000p( which is really 2160p) is much more suited for movie theaters than hometheater. You need a REALLY large screen size to realize the benefits of 2160p, not to mention a huge pipeline for the signals, and ultra large storage to hold it. 2160p does not make any sense for the home.

Your last statement is stupid as hell. When you have a $42 billion dollar market in disc sales, and a $200 million market in downloads, only an idiot would chose to support downloads. Downloading as a everyday practice is not here yet, and won't be for at least a decade. Informed and knowledgeable folks know this, and some little kid doing armchair analysis need to learn this.

How about a 51 year old man who is a veteran of "format" wars?

I REMEMBER just a few years ago , a 15in LCD was 2 grand, 1080p was a "decade"
away, and would be damn expensive then, and solid state storage of media was a fantasy
Today you can get an LCD 42IN FOR 800 bucks in some places, in between posting on this site I AM DOWNLOADING MY ENTIRE music video and CD collection onto a 320 gig harddrive I BOUGHT FOR 99 BUCKS.
And you can buy a completely solid state camcorder for 150 bucks on qvc.
And no downloading isnt the future, and we will never get into WWII (said on dec 6, 1941)

I download everyday, and so do you, you just dont see it as downloading.
Ever hear of youtube? episodes of TV you can catch up on on the networks websites?
Four years ago I had gigs of movies, tv shows , music vids, you name it, on my computer.
The world is no longer frames, musical notes, etc, its ones and zeros.
Its not silver nitrate, its silicon.
And its not a plastic disc , its a hard drive.
The world doesnt turn on a dime, but the astute can see which direction in which its going,
and the expensive process of making a disc and shipping it somewhere will seem quite silly when you can push a button and see every movie ever made, anytime you want.
Which is basically where the music industry is NOW.
And just like broadcast tv followed broadcast radio, and videocassettes followed
records and CD's, so downloading of video will follow downloading of music.
Indeed its already taking place

[Ajani]

How about a 51 year old man who is a veteran of "format" wars?

I REMEMBER just a few years ago , a 15in LCD was 2 grand, 1080p was a "decade"
away, and would be damn expensive then, and solid state storage of media was a fantasy
Today you can get an LCD 42IN FOR 800 bucks in some places, in between posting on this site I AM DOWNLOADING MY ENTIRE music video and CD collection onto a 320 gig harddrive I BOUGHT FOR 99 BUCKS.
And you can buy a completely solid state camcorder for 150 bucks on qvc.
And no downloading isnt the future, and we will never get into WWII (said on dec 6, 1941)

I download everyday, and so do you, you just dont see it as downloading.
Ever hear of youtube? episodes of TV you can catch up on on the networks websites?
Four years ago I had gigs of movies, tv shows , music vids, you name it, on my computer.
The world is no longer frames, musical notes, etc, its ones and zeros.
Its not silver nitrate, its silicon.
And its not a plastic disc , its a hard drive.
The world doesnt turn on a dime, but the astute can see which direction in which its going,
and the expensive process of making a disc and shipping it somewhere will seem quite silly when you can push a button and see every movie ever made, anytime you want.
Which is basically where the music industry is NOW.
And just like broadcast tv followed broadcast radio, and videocassettes followed
records and CD's, so downloading of video will follow downloading of music.
Indeed its already taking place

I think many people fail to realize just how widespread downloading is.... the issue is not whether downloading will take off (it already has) but how to move people from illegal to legitimate downloading.