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  1. #1
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    Blu-ray caught in shift to streaming

    A stream of box-office hits and classics, including the Indiana Jones films and Titanic, are queued up for release on Blu-ray Disc as part of a concerted campaign to cement the high-definition format's place in your living room.

    Despite Blu-ray video and sound superiority to DVD, the format is growing at a slower pace than expected. Meanwhile, the momentum of streaming video threatens to snuff out some consumers' love of movies on physical discs as it lessens the likelihood that "somebody goes and buys a Blu-ray movie or rents it," says Phil Swann, president of TVPredictions.com.

    Studios see their window closing -- not real quick, but closing slowly, Swann says. They want to "get these classic movies out there and sell them now, because we aren't exactly sure what the environment is going to look like a year from now." A number of landmark films are hitting Blu-ray for the first time in this fall, among them are classics such as Lawrence of Arabia.

    Bluray is 6 years old and more than one-third of U.S. homes have Blu-ray Disc players--including a Sony PlayStation 3 game system--where at this point in DVD's lifespan, about half of U.S. households had a DVD player. However the consulting firm expects Blu-ray movie disc sales will surpass DVDs by 2015.

    Blu-ray caught in shift to streaming - USATODAY.com

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    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smokey View Post
    A stream of box-office hits and classics, including the Indiana Jones films and Titanic, are queued up for release on Blu-ray Disc as part of a concerted campaign to cement the high-definition format's place in your living room.

    Despite Blu-ray video and sound superiority to DVD, the format is growing at a slower pace than expected. Meanwhile, the momentum of streaming video threatens to snuff out some consumers' love of movies on physical discs as it lessens the likelihood that "somebody goes and buys a Blu-ray movie or rents it," says Phil Swann, president of TVPredictions.com.

    Studios see their window closing -- not real quick, but closing slowly, Swann says. They want to "get these classic movies out there and sell them now, because we aren't exactly sure what the environment is going to look like a year from now." A number of landmark films are hitting Blu-ray for the first time in this fall, among them are classics such as Lawrence of Arabia.

    Bluray is 6 years old and more than one-third of U.S. homes have Blu-ray Disc players--including a Sony PlayStation 3 game system--where at this point in DVD's lifespan, about half of U.S. households had a DVD player. However the consulting firm expects Blu-ray movie disc sales will surpass DVDs by 2015.

    Blu-ray caught in shift to streaming - USATODAY.com
    This article is totally misleading. In the first half of this year, Bluray sales were up 13.3% over the first half of 2011. 2011 first half sales were up over 2010 first half.

    Yes streaming subscription are growing quickly, but it still represents a fraction of entertainment dollars when compared to disc.
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    Music Junkie E-Stat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible View Post
    Yes streaming subscription are growing quickly, but it still represents a fraction of entertainment dollars when compared to disc.
    And that is estimated to reverse in 2016.

    "Video-streaming revenue, which accounted for about $2.8 billion in 2011, will reach $6.7 billion by 2016, PwC estimates. That will surpass disc sales, which are expected to decline from about $9 billion in 2011 to about $5.5 billion in 2016."

    As with high rez music, the video public clearly prefers convenience especially since choice is in no way limited as is the case with the music industry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    As with high rez music, the video public clearly prefers convenience especially since choice is in no way limited as is the case with the music industry.
    But unlike music, video is not as mobile

    Probably most of disc sale decline can be contributed to decline in DVD sales as title availability in that catagory is becoming less selective, and for being inferior to bluray in term of picture quality.

  5. #5
    Music Junkie E-Stat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smokey View Post
    But unlike music, video is not as mobile
    I'm glad your being facetious as devices like iPhones and iPads are exceptionally portable. On my phone, I have videos of my wedding, a parachute jump and an ice skating programs with my wife.

    Currently on her iPad is the third season of the TV series Emergency! and a funny movie called A Mightly Wind. She frequently streams Netflix movies on it, too.

  6. #6
    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    And that is estimated to reverse in 2016.
    With sales rising year over year, that estimate is based on what? And quite frankly, who in the hell is endowned to predict what is going to happen four years from now?

    "Video-streaming revenue, which accounted for about $2.8 billion in 2011, will reach $6.7 billion by 2016, PwC estimates. That will surpass disc sales, which are expected to decline from about $9 billion in 2011 to about $5.5 billion in 2016."

    As with high rez music, the video public clearly prefers convenience especially since choice is in no way limited as is the case with the music industry.
    Sorry, but the model for the music industry is quite different than that of the film industry. Mixing the two together shows a profound ignorance of how each work in the market. While DVD sales are falling, Bluray sales are trending upwards at a faster rate than streaming subscriptions are. And with the caps that both telecoms and the cable industry are putting on, who is to say that streaming subscriptions won't trend downwards as caps are lowered as a result of too much streaming traffic.

    Predictions had HD DVD beating Bluray back in the day because of the price of the players. We see how that turned out don't we.
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  7. #7
    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    I'm glad your being facetious as devices like iPhones and iPads are exceptionally portable. On my phone, I have videos of my wedding, a parachute jump and an ice skating programs with my wife.

    Currently on her iPad is the third season of the TV series Emergency! and a funny movie called A Mightly Wind. She frequently streams Netflix movies on it, too.
    Your experience is not transferable to the masses. The television as a viewing choice still by far is the most preferred viewing device, and that trend leans in that way more year over year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible View Post
    While DVD sales are falling, Bluray sales are trending upwards at a faster rate than streaming subscriptions are. And with the caps that both telecoms and the cable industry are putting on, who is to say that streaming subscriptions won't trend downwards as caps are lowered as a result of too much streaming traffic.
    Best of luck to your counter to industry trends estimate.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible View Post
    Your experience is not transferable to the masses. The television as a viewing choice still by far is the most preferred viewing device, and that trend leans in that way more year over year.
    Sorry that you completely missed the point. Let's review it, shall we?

    But unlike music, video is not as mobile

    Are you really of the opinion that video is NOT mobile? If so, then apparently you are completely unaware of the concept of smart phones and pad based computers that are network enabled. Wake up!

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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    Are you really of the opinion that video is NOT mobile? If so, then apparently you are completely unaware of the concept of smart phones and pad based computers that are network enabled. Wake up!
    I thought the video trend was going for bigger screen, not smaller

    If you had an option to play a movie on a mobile device or on a big screen TV with full sound (DTS-HD ) for enjoyment and not for passing time, which one would you opt for?

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smokey View Post
    If you had an option to play a movie on a mobile device or on a big screen TV with full sound (DTS-HD ) for enjoyment and not for passing time, which one would you opt for?
    My answer is exactly the same as it would be for music: Depending upon location, either!

    I enjoy listening to 7 foot tall stats driven by 600 watt tube amps. I also enjoy wearing Shure IEMs when I'm out of the house. I enjoy watching the 65" DLP driven by 1.5 kW of power. I also enjoy watching movies on an iPad when I'm out of the house.

  12. #12
    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    Best of luck to your counter to industry trends estimate.

    Best of luck relying on a estimate rather than actual figures reported by NDP. Based on actual figures, streaming subscriptions would have to jump 400% year over year to catch the sales of disc. It is not growing that fast now, has not in the past, and there is no sign it will in the future.
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    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    Sorry that you completely missed the point. Let's review it, shall we?

    But unlike music, video is not as mobile

    Are you really of the opinion that video is NOT mobile? If so, then apparently you are completely unaware of the concept of smart phones and pad based computers that are network enabled. Wake up!
    Sorry that you have me mixed up with Smokey. I never said video was not portable. I said that folks still watch video on the televisions FAR more than their phones or Ipads. That is a undisputable fact that even Neilson's surveys confirm.

    Get your $hit straight Ralph.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible View Post
    Best of luck relying on a estimate rather than actual figures reported by NDP. Based on actual figures, streaming subscriptions would have to jump 400% year over year to catch the sales of disc. It is not growing that fast now, has not in the past, and there is no sign it will in the future.
    Understand that my observation has nothing to do with my preference for higher quality, but the objective realization that for at least the past four years - physical media has consistently dropped in sales while online/streaming has increased. Every single year.

    Do you really think that something will reverse that trend? Given the priorities of the current generation, I sure don't. Nor do the experts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible View Post
    Sorry that you have me mixed up with Smokey. I never said video was not portable.
    Except of course for the comment that triggered my response:

    "The television as a viewing choice still by far is the most preferred viewing device, and that trend leans in that way more year over year."

    If that were the case, then iTunes movie rentals would never have gotten off the ground instead of increasing in volume year over year. How many generic households have their computers connected to their TVs to view the 50,000 movies downloaded every day? Folks view those movies on mobile Apple enabled devices.

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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat
    If that were the case, then iTunes movie rentals would never have gotten off the ground instead of increasing in volume year over year. How many generic households have their computers connected to their TVs to view the 50,000 movies downloaded every day? Folks view those movies on mobile Apple enabled devices.
    But not everybody have mobile Apple enabled devices

    I have my PC connected to TV and watch alot of streaming, and seeing alot of other folks doing the same thing that have PC or internet enable devices such as TV and bluray players.

    Unless we see some numbers/link that breaks down percentage of streamings/downloads for internet enable devices (including PC), and percentage for mobile devices such as smartphones, then it is just an assumption what we are doing is the industry trend.
    Last edited by Smokey; 09-09-2012 at 11:33 PM.

  17. #17
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    I like so many others have been late to the table on Blu-Ray in part because of its cost. Add in the fact that many people just spent money not too no long ago for their High-Def DVD players it is easy to see why sales have lagged.

    However as is my way I will be taking my first plunge into Blu-Ray via the used gear market. This weekend I found an older Sony Blu-Ray player stacked among the regular DVD players at a local Goodwill for $20. It is in good shape and appears to play well. I have to get a remote for it to access all of its features but that should not be a problem. I will be curious to compare it to my Oppo players once I get it up and running.
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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smokey View Post
    But not everybody have mobile Apple enabled devices
    That does limit the audience to about 150,000,000 for all those iTunes based downloaded movies.

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    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    Understand that my observation has nothing to do with my preference for higher quality, but the objective realization that for at least the past four years - physical media has consistently dropped in sales while online/streaming has increased. Every single year.

    Do you really think that something will reverse that trend? Given the priorities of the current generation, I sure don't. Nor do the experts.
    Here is the problem with your analysis. There no meat, it is all air. DVD sales have certainly been dropping, It is a mature format whose sales will soon be eclipsed by Bluray. They no longer market DVD as a premiere way of watching movies on disc. Sales of movies on Bluray has risen year after year since inception, and there is no indication that it is slowing...ZERO.

    When you lump everything together in one great big pot, it makes it impossible to see the picture clearly. Streaming subscription while growing are still just a very small fraction of the entertainment dollar. I think we need to wait to see where the telecoms and cable company's are going with their caps on data. If they lift them, the game is afoot for streaming. If the caps get more widespread or get lowered, then there is no chance in hell for streaming to catch up anytime soon.
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  20. #20
    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    That does limit the audience to about 150,000,000 for all those iTunes based downloaded movies.
    iTunes movie rentals are a tiny slice of the itunes store. According to my friend who works at Apple, it is not doing very well sales or rental wise. Business has been flat as a pancake for about two years. Music sales, different story altogether.
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    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    Except of course for the comment that triggered my response:

    "The television as a viewing choice still by far is the most preferred viewing device, and that trend leans in that way more year over year."

    If that were the case, then iTunes movie rentals would never have gotten off the ground instead of increasing in volume year over year. How many generic households have their computers connected to their TVs to view the 50,000 movies downloaded every day? Folks view those movies on mobile Apple enabled devices.
    Ralph, you ever heard of Apple TV? That is why movie rentals were started in the first place - to sell Apple products. And you are wrong. Apple movie rentals and digital sales have not been increasing at all. According to my NDP report, it is flat. Overall streaming is increasing,, but that is thanks to Netflix and Youtube, not Apple.

    When you say downloads, you have to be specific. Youtube and Netflix make up most of those downloads. Apple is almost out of the picture in comparison.
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  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible View Post
    Here is the problem with your analysis. There no meat, it is all air. DVD sales have certainly been dropping, It is a mature format whose sales will soon be eclipsed by Bluray. They no longer market DVD as a premiere way of watching movies on disc. Sales of movies on Bluray has risen year after year since inception, and there is no indication that it is slowing...ZERO.
    You focus on DVD sales. The report data speaks of combined physical media totals. Sure, BR is finally replacing DVD. And losing ground to downloads/streaming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible View Post
    When you say downloads, you have to be specific
    Everything except physical media. A decreasing number of folks are buying shiny disks.

  23. #23
    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    Understand that my observation has nothing to do with my preference for higher quality, but the objective realization that for at least the past four years - physical media has consistently dropped in sales while online/streaming has increased. Every single year.

    Do you really think that something will reverse that trend? Given the priorities of the current generation, I sure don't. Nor do the experts.
    Ralph, the experts predicted that HD DVD would beat Bluray. We know how that turned out. A prediction is no precursor for reality. It is just a prediction.

    Not all physical media has consistently dropped in sales. Bluray does not fit into that statement. DVD and CD most certainly do, and both are mature formats that are being overtaken by other sources.

    You need to stop lumping everything together - it paints a very inaccurate picture of the market overall. The devil is in the individual ingredients, not in the finished soup.
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  24. #24
    Music Junkie E-Stat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible View Post
    Not all physical media has consistently dropped in sales.
    A 20% increase in a vastly smaller number doesn't offset a 20% decrease of a far larger number. Physical sales have been falling off for years.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible View Post
    You need to stop lumping everything together - it paints a very inaccurate picture of the market overall.
    Feel free to get mired in the details and miss the forest.

  25. #25
    M.P.S.E /AES/SMPTE member Sir Terrence the Terrible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by E-Stat View Post
    You focus on DVD sales. The report data speaks of combined physical media totals. Sure, BR is finally replacing DVD. And losing ground to downloads/streaming.
    Combined data does not always tell the story does it. While overall disc sales are dropping, when look at more careful show that DVD and CD are dragging down overall disc sales. The only physical media that is doing well is Bluray. If you look even closer, you will see that Bluray on premiere titles have now become consistently half of all disc sales. That shows the weakness of DVD, and the strength of Bluray. In the first quarter of this year, Bluray saw a 13.3% increase, while DVD saw a 10.6% drop.


    Everything except physical media. A decreasing number of folks are buying shiny disks.
    A decreasing number of folks are buying fewer CD and DVD. I know many people like myself that do not buy either. I support high rez downloads and Bluray disc.

    There is a huge reason the studios are rushing to get high value catalog titles out there. They sell EXTREMELY well, and if Bluray sales are falling - then they would not bother as it costs a lot of money to remaster these titles.. These catalog titles will not be offered on DVD, they have already been released on that format.

    There is not a single survey conducted that shows that streaming is replacing Bluray, or even losing ground to it. Folks who want quality, don't look to streaming. Those who don't care about quality, go to streaming. Two different kinds of folks, with two different choices.
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