Blu-ray caught in shift to streaming

[E-Stat]

While DVD sales are falling, Bluray sales are trending upwards at a faster rate than streaming subscriptions are. And with the caps that both telecoms and the cable industry are putting on, who is to say that streaming subscriptions won't trend downwards as caps are lowered as a result of too much streaming traffic.

Best of luck to your counter to industry trends estimate.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Best of luck to your counter to industry trends estimate.

Best of luck relying on a estimate rather than actual figures reported by NDP. Based on actual figures, streaming subscriptions would have to jump 400% year over year to catch the sales of disc. It is not growing that fast now, has not in the past, and there is no sign it will in the future.

[E-Stat]

Best of luck relying on a estimate rather than actual figures reported by NDP. Based on actual figures, streaming subscriptions would have to jump 400% year over year to catch the sales of disc. It is not growing that fast now, has not in the past, and there is no sign it will in the future.

Understand that my observation has nothing to do with my preference for higher quality, but the objective realization that for at least the past four years - physical media has consistently dropped in sales while online/streaming has increased. Every single year.

Do you really think that something will reverse that trend? Given the priorities of the current generation, I sure don't. Nor do the experts.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Understand that my observation has nothing to do with my preference for higher quality, but the objective realization that for at least the past four years - physical media has consistently dropped in sales while online/streaming has increased. Every single year.

Do you really think that something will reverse that trend? Given the priorities of the current generation, I sure don't. Nor do the experts.

Here is the problem with your analysis. There no meat, it is all air. DVD sales have certainly been dropping, It is a mature format whose sales will soon be eclipsed by Bluray. They no longer market DVD as a premiere way of watching movies on disc. Sales of movies on Bluray has risen year after year since inception, and there is no indication that it is slowing...ZERO.

When you lump everything together in one great big pot, it makes it impossible to see the picture clearly. Streaming subscription while growing are still just a very small fraction of the entertainment dollar. I think we need to wait to see where the telecoms and cable company's are going with their caps on data. If they lift them, the game is afoot for streaming. If the caps get more widespread or get lowered, then there is no chance in hell for streaming to catch up anytime soon.

[E-Stat]

Here is the problem with your analysis. There no meat, it is all air. DVD sales have certainly been dropping, It is a mature format whose sales will soon be eclipsed by Bluray. They no longer market DVD as a premiere way of watching movies on disc. Sales of movies on Bluray has risen year after year since inception, and there is no indication that it is slowing...ZERO.

You focus on DVD sales. The report data speaks of combined physical media totals. Sure, BR is finally replacing DVD. And losing ground to downloads/streaming.

When you say downloads, you have to be specific

Everything except physical media. A decreasing number of folks are buying shiny disks.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

You focus on DVD sales. The report data speaks of combined physical media totals. Sure, BR is finally replacing DVD. And losing ground to downloads/streaming.

Combined data does not always tell the story does it. While overall disc sales are dropping, when look at more careful show that DVD and CD are dragging down overall disc sales. The only physical media that is doing well is Bluray. If you look even closer, you will see that Bluray on premiere titles have now become consistently half of all disc sales. That shows the weakness of DVD, and the strength of Bluray. In the first quarter of this year, Bluray saw a 13.3% increase, while DVD saw a 10.6% drop.

Everything except physical media. A decreasing number of folks are buying shiny disks.

A decreasing number of folks are buying fewer CD and DVD. I know many people like myself that do not buy either. I support high rez downloads and Bluray disc.

There is a huge reason the studios are rushing to get high value catalog titles out there. They sell EXTREMELY well, and if Bluray sales are falling - then they would not bother as it costs a lot of money to remaster these titles.. These catalog titles will not be offered on DVD, they have already been released on that format.

There is not a single survey conducted that shows that streaming is replacing Bluray, or even losing ground to it. Folks who want quality, don't look to streaming. Those who don't care about quality, go to streaming. Two different kinds of folks, with two different choices.

[E-Stat]

Combined data does not always tell the story does it.

When the question addressed by the story is physical or digital, the answer is yes.

While overall disc sales are dropping, when look at more careful show that DVD and CD are dragging down overall disc sales

Who's talking about CDs? This article is about video. Music lost the battle a while ago.

That shows the weakness of DVD, and the strength of Bluray. In the first quarter of this year, Bluray saw a 13.3% increase, while DVD saw a 10.6% drop.

Now translate those percents to units to provide the complete story of falling sales. The total market for both video physical formats is down. Last year. This year. Most likely, next year, too.

edit: a found a sales graph showing relative changes.

There is not a single survey conducted that shows that streaming is replacing Bluray, or even losing ground to it.

That's not what the article is saying. It simply observes the obvious: like music before it, it won't be many years before more people consume video via streaming vs. physical media. That doesn't say BR or DVDs totally go away. They become less significant players.

[bobsticks]

I think we need to wait to see where the telecoms and cable company's are going with their caps on data. If they lift them, the game is afoot for streaming. If the caps get more widespread or get lowered, then there is no chance in hell for streaming to catch up anytime soon.

I believe this will be extremely impactful.

It's kind of hard to debate hard numbers but I think RGA brings up a thoughtful point when he looks at behaviors/preferences because it opens up a values paradigm.

And, let's be honest...Hollywood has been putting out such complete drek that I suspect a lot of folks don't see the utility in plopping down $25 or $30 for great quality on something they barely want to watch once.

[Feanor]

I believe this will be extremely impactful.

It's kind of hard to debate hard numbers but I think RGA brings up a thoughtful point when he looks at behaviors/preferences because it opens up a values paradigm.

And, let's be honest...Hollywood has been putting out such complete drek that I suspect a lot of folks don't see the utility in plopping down $25 or $30 for great quality on something they barely want to watch once.

Now that I'm getting 25 Gbps I find streaming works very well. All my streaming is from Netfix presently, though I would like a provider with a bigger selection. Other than Netfix, I rent discs from Zip.ca whose price is less than C$3 per disc.

{edit}I meant to mention that my download limit is pretty good -- 300 GB per month.{/edit}

We have 400-600 DVDs around here, mostly bought by my wife deeply discounted. Thing is, most of them have been watched only once -- and a few never watched. I simply will not plop down $25-30 for for something we'll watch once or twice, consequently I buy only a few discs such as operas and a very few, favorite rewatchers such as LoTR and 5th Element.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I believe this will be extremely impactful.

It's kind of hard to debate hard numbers but I think RGA brings up a thoughtful point when he looks at behaviors/preferences because it opens up a values paradigm.

And, let's be honest...Hollywood has been putting out such complete drek that I suspect a lot of folks don't see the utility in plopping down $25 or $30 for great quality on something they barely want to watch once.

Here the reality on streaming. I am reading more and more comments from the CEO of Netflix complaining about data caps the telecoms and cable company's are instituting. But you have to notice something else here. Why has no streaming company come forward as a industry leader? It is because the studios don't want any one streaming company to be powerful, they want to keep the leverage their way. So they either make exclusive deals, or they makes the same deal with everyone so no one comes out ahead.

The second thing is as streaming becomes more and more popular, the cost of content is going to go through the roof - which means higher prices. So, you have data caps, a real potential for higher prices, and difficulties getting quality content.

[bobsticks]

Here the reality on streaming. I am reading more and more comments from the CEO of Netflix complaining about data caps the telecoms and cable company's are instituting. But you have to notice something else here. Why has no streaming company come forward as a industry leader? It is because the studios don't want any one streaming company to be powerful, they want to keep the leverage their way. So they either make exclusive deals, or they makes the same deal with everyone so no one comes out ahead.

The second thing is as streaming becomes more and more popular, the cost of content is going to go through the roof - which means higher prices. So, you have data caps, a real potential for higher prices, and difficulties getting quality content.

That makes a lot of sense and fairly represents the supply side of the equation.

At the same time, Feanor's scenario...from the demand side...resonates within my little "kanoggin", if only because I can barely list ten movies within the last 4 or 5 years that I'd want to rent right now much less own for multiple viewings.

The only thing that's sure is that the quality-minded consumer is caught between a rock and a hard space.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Understand that my observation has nothing to do with my preference for higher quality, but the objective realization that for at least the past four years - physical media has consistently dropped in sales while online/streaming has increased. Every single year.

Do you really think that something will reverse that trend? Given the priorities of the current generation, I sure don't. Nor do the experts.

Ralph, the experts predicted that HD DVD would beat Bluray. We know how that turned out. A prediction is no precursor for reality. It is just a prediction.

Not all physical media has consistently dropped in sales. Bluray does not fit into that statement. DVD and CD most certainly do, and both are mature formats that are being overtaken by other sources.

You need to stop lumping everything together - it paints a very inaccurate picture of the market overall. The devil is in the individual ingredients, not in the finished soup.

[E-Stat]

Not all physical media has consistently dropped in sales.

A 20% increase in a vastly smaller number doesn't offset a 20% decrease of a far larger number. Physical sales have been falling off for years.

You need to stop lumping everything together - it paints a very inaccurate picture of the market overall.

Feel free to get mired in the details and miss the forest.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

A 20% increase in a vastly smaller number doesn't offset a 20% decrease of a far larger number. Physical sales have been falling off for years.

DVD and CD sales have been falling for years. Sorry, but NDP does not present data in clumps. It parses out each individual format, and then gives the total. It a more accurate picture of the industry as a whole.

Feel free to get mired in the details and miss the forest.

The forest consists of individual trees just like physical disc consists of individual formats. The forest is not just one big tree. If a lot of trees in the forest are dying, but there are some that are not - all of the forest is not dying.

Who's mired the one that ignores the detail(and therefore paints in inaccurate picture, or the person who the capacity to recognize it exists and get a better picture of what the industry is actually doing. Only simple minded people look at clumps of data and come to a conclusion.