Blu-ray caught in shift to streaming

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

A 20% increase in a vastly smaller number doesn't offset a 20% decrease of a far larger number. Physical sales have been falling off for years.

DVD and CD sales have been falling for years. Sorry, but NDP does not present data in clumps. It parses out each individual format, and then gives the total. It a more accurate picture of the industry as a whole.

Feel free to get mired in the details and miss the forest.

The forest consists of individual trees just like physical disc consists of individual formats. The forest is not just one big tree. If a lot of trees in the forest are dying, but there are some that are not - all of the forest is not dying.

Who's mired the one that ignores the detail(and therefore paints in inaccurate picture, or the person who the capacity to recognize it exists and get a better picture of what the industry is actually doing. Only simple minded people look at clumps of data and come to a conclusion.

[E-Stat]

Combined data does not always tell the story does it.

When the question addressed by the story is physical or digital, the answer is yes.

While overall disc sales are dropping, when look at more careful show that DVD and CD are dragging down overall disc sales

Who's talking about CDs? This article is about video. Music lost the battle a while ago.

That shows the weakness of DVD, and the strength of Bluray. In the first quarter of this year, Bluray saw a 13.3% increase, while DVD saw a 10.6% drop.

Now translate those percents to units to provide the complete story of falling sales. The total market for both video physical formats is down. Last year. This year. Most likely, next year, too.

edit: a found a sales graph showing relative changes.

There is not a single survey conducted that shows that streaming is replacing Bluray, or even losing ground to it.

That's not what the article is saying. It simply observes the obvious: like music before it, it won't be many years before more people consume video via streaming vs. physical media. That doesn't say BR or DVDs totally go away. They become less significant players.

[Mr Peabody]

I'm afraid those who want quality are a minority. That is one parallel between the movie and music industry I bet will hold true. The economy may have some impact but I think if people felt strongly about quality that Blu ray would be much further along than it is.

I personally hope both CD and BDP continue to be sold as I have not embraced streaming. Even when putting music on a mp3 player for travel it was music from my own collection for the most part.

I have to admit I am pretty surprised myself how fast streaming is growing. Sir T, when you had this argument before with former posters who no longer show up here I was pretty sure you were going to be right, but since then streaming is like an outbreak. I have no numbers, I'm just going by what I see people around me doing. We also have to consider streaming is almost available on any device, receivers, video disc players, TV's and other devices especially for streaming. I personally haven't seen any recent info on capping, in fact, some cable companies are boasting faster speeds than ever offered before.

My experience with streaming so far, I let my kids try some free content from Dish over the internet connection, which I admit may not be the best, but the movie consistently paused so the stream could catch up, that would drive me crazy and to download completely to watch removes the convenience. I won't order PPV at $6.99 a title, that's 1/2 or 1/3 the price of the disc, I'd just asoon buy the disc.

[Mr Peabody]

One other thing, a friend of mine is a big streamer of video and it seems his big draw is the endless selection and being able to buy Ala Carte, watch what ever he wants when he wants. This would probably trump quality pretty big since none of us have the space or money to own every single movie and TV series.

[E-Stat]

I'm afraid those who want quality are a minority. That is one parallel between the movie and music industry I bet will hold true.

Have you ever been to a public environment - airport, restaurant, bar, barber shop, auto/tire dealer, hotel, etc. where the flat video monitor was NOT distorting the native 4:3 picture into a 16:9 perspective? That drives me nuts. I don't like the stretched world of fat faced people, but apparently others DON'T EVEN NOTICE.

Even when folks have HDTV capability with its increased resolution and wider aspect ratio, some folks like my wife's parents choose to watch the low-def version. They just don't care that much.

[RGA]

Personally, I am not a videophile - I owned Laserdisc but the reason I bought LD was for the wide screen format which was difficult to get on VHS. LD prices were so high that I would rent and record them onto tape.

The problem with youth is that they figure anything on the net is free and with torrents they can download pretty much any TV series/movie/music for free. Yes Blu-Ray is better than DVD or what you get from a torrent but most people don't care.

There is too much competition from alternate forms of entertainment - and people make less money.

If a kid has X dollars he spends it on a video game and a iPhone related stuff and will download the music and movies for free. It's much harder to download video games.

LPs interestingly should be the music industries' dream. You can copy it to a computer but it requires a lot more work - and time. You have to play the whole album in real time. The owner actually gets some cover art and a physicality to the artist they are buying which makes it more of a keepsake. CD was practically worthless on that front but way better than disposable download in bits inside a computer. It's wrong of course but people just don't see stealing unless it is a physical thing being taken - they don't see digital bits floating in cyberspace as stealing. Asia certainly doesn't - they have laws but no one enforces them. I can go to China tomorrow and buy any Blu-Ray in perfect Blu-Ray copy of any motion picture (including some not in theaters yet - promo-copies) and pay $1 US. In those markets there are tons and tons of tourists buying them up in droves. You can't do that on LP and you can't do that on LD. By allowing machines to be sold to the public that can copy Blu-Ray to Blu-Ray and CD to CD and DVD to DVD you are basically saying - here steal everything.

The manufacturers gave people the record button and then wonder why people actually use the button.

[Smokey]

My experience with streaming so far, I let my kids try some free content from Dish over the internet connection, which I admit may not be the best, but the movie consistently paused so the stream could catch up, that would drive me crazy and to download completely to watch removes the convenience.

IMO that is one main reason preventing video from going completely mobile (unlike music). Unless you have wifi hot spot at home or at remote locations, you will be limited at what you can watch on mobile devices.

Have you ever been to a public environment - airport, restaurant, bar, barber shop, auto/tire dealer, hotel, etc. where the flat video monitor was NOT distorting the native 4:3 picture into a 16:9 perspective? That drives me nuts. I don't like the stretched world of fat faced people, but apparently others DON'T EVEN NOTICE.

So you don't like watching distorted the native 4:3 picture into a 16:9 TV, but don't mind watching movies and TV shows on a tiny hand held devices? I rather watch the former

Asia certainly doesn't - they have laws but no one enforces them. I can go to China tomorrow and buy any Blu-Ray in perfect Blu-Ray copy of any motion picture (including some not in theaters yet - promo-copies) and pay $1 US.

China seem to use different rules concerning copy right laws for music and video. For example, if you go to China's main search engine...

°Ù¶Èһϣ¬Äã¾ÍÖªµÀ

....you will see a link for tons of MP3s. I can not play any of MP3s due to my location (outside China), but I bet it is free to listen to them in China. I never seen such a link in western search engines.

[E-Stat]

So you don't like watching distorted the native 4:3 picture into a 16:9 TV, but don't mind watching movies and TV shows on a tiny hand held devices? I rather watch the former

I watched the Apollo 11 moon landing on a 19" B&W Zenith. I can handle a 10" iPad just fine when the image is not distorted.

BTW, WiFi is available in lots of places, including Starbucks, McDonalds and on Delta flights while aloft.

[Smokey]

BTW, WiFi is available in lots of places, including Starbucks, McDonalds and on Delta flights while aloft.

And I hope you're not spending hour and half at Starbuck or McDonalds watching movies

[E-Stat]

And I hope you're not spending hour and half at Starbuck or McDonalds watching movies

While having a meal, just enough time to watch a 20 minute TV episode you missed or an oldie you would like to watch again on Hulu or Netflix .

[Mr Peabody]

LOL, the football head effect, it drives me crazy.

Smokey, video is mobile because it's downloaded and stored on the mobile device, streaming is some what available for mobile devices as Estat mentioned but I suspect most people load up what they want to view before traveling.

[bobsticks]

I think we need to wait to see where the telecoms and cable company's are going with their caps on data. If they lift them, the game is afoot for streaming. If the caps get more widespread or get lowered, then there is no chance in hell for streaming to catch up anytime soon.

I believe this will be extremely impactful.

It's kind of hard to debate hard numbers but I think RGA brings up a thoughtful point when he looks at behaviors/preferences because it opens up a values paradigm.

And, let's be honest...Hollywood has been putting out such complete drek that I suspect a lot of folks don't see the utility in plopping down $25 or $30 for great quality on something they barely want to watch once.

[Mr Peabody]

Check this out, the speed;
Google Fiber: Google announced Sunday that it will be building high-speed Internet out for at least 180 of the 220 qualifying neighborhoods in Kansas City as part of its effort to roll out 1-gigabit connections.

The company declared the effort to be a complete success. “This number has blown us away — and it’s not even the final tally,” wrote Google Access General Manager Kevin Lo in a company blog post.

[Feanor]

I believe this will be extremely impactful.

It's kind of hard to debate hard numbers but I think RGA brings up a thoughtful point when he looks at behaviors/preferences because it opens up a values paradigm.

And, let's be honest...Hollywood has been putting out such complete drek that I suspect a lot of folks don't see the utility in plopping down $25 or $30 for great quality on something they barely want to watch once.

Now that I'm getting 25 Gbps I find streaming works very well. All my streaming is from Netfix presently, though I would like a provider with a bigger selection. Other than Netfix, I rent discs from Zip.ca whose price is less than C$3 per disc.

{edit}I meant to mention that my download limit is pretty good -- 300 GB per month.{/edit}

We have 400-600 DVDs around here, mostly bought by my wife deeply discounted. Thing is, most of them have been watched only once -- and a few never watched. I simply will not plop down $25-30 for for something we'll watch once or twice, consequently I buy only a few discs such as operas and a very few, favorite rewatchers such as LoTR and 5th Element.

[GMichael]

Right now, when I spend $20-30 on a BR disk, I get, 1 in 3D, 1 2D, 1 DVD and 1 digital. I can watch the 3D with family, the 2D when company comes over. My daughter can watch the DVD in her room, and we download the digital to our laptop and phones. We end up watching many of them over and over. Sometimes several times a day (anyone with a 3 year old at home should be able to relate) Can downloads do the same for me? Can I watch them in any/every room of my house 20, 30, or 50 times?

[Mr Peabody]

For the young who seem not to tire of the same show over & over & over, that's where we use the DVR, record the shows from the channel onto the harddrive.

[E-Stat]

Right now, when I spend $20-30 on a BR disk, I get, 1 in 3D, 1 2D, 1 DVD and 1 digital. Can downloads do the same for me? Can I watch them in any/every room of my house 20, 30, or 50 times?

With a streaming service and decent bandwidth, you can watch content as many times as you wish - albeit NOT in 3D nor BR quality.

Do you buy BR disks of every movie you choose to watch? That would get far too pricey for me. I use Netflix to view and stream far more movies (and TV series) than I care to purchase in BR format. Whenever I buy a movie, however, I always prefer the BR version if that is available - which is not always the case with older movies.

[Smokey]

Whenever I buy a movie, however, I always prefer the BR version if that is available - which is not always the case with older movies.

I wonder if bluray will fill the void (especially as you sid such as older movies) left by DVDs as less and less tiltes are becoming available on DVDs. I imagine cost of remastering the film for bluray format might be one reason the void might not get filled, especially with less popular titles.

[E-Stat]

I wonder if bluray will fill the void (especially as you sid such as older movies) left by DVDs as less and less tiltes are becoming available on DVDs. I imagine cost of remastering the film for bluray format might be one reason the void might not get filled, especially with less popular titles.

I suspect that it really isn't cost effective to remaster everything in BR. Like the CD before it, the DVD will likely soldier on - if not in decreasing numbers year by year.

[GMichael]

With a streaming service and decent bandwidth, you can watch content as many times as you wish - albeit NOT in 3D nor BR quality.

Do you buy BR disks of every movie you choose to watch? That would get far too pricey for me. I use Netflix to view and stream far more movies (and TV series) than I care to purchase in BR format. Whenever I buy a movie, however, I always prefer the BR version if that is available - which is not always the case with older movies.

I don't buy every movie I watch. Cable is my main source for movies. Often, I'll record a movie that I think my daughter will like (IE: Rio, Ice Age, Finding Nemo, etc.) After she has watched it a few dozen times she starts asking to see it on 'her TV'. Those are the ones I buy. When I buy a movie, I like to be able to play it on any and/or all of our TV/displays. I'm sure that many of them will get played for years to come.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I believe this will be extremely impactful.

It's kind of hard to debate hard numbers but I think RGA brings up a thoughtful point when he looks at behaviors/preferences because it opens up a values paradigm.

And, let's be honest...Hollywood has been putting out such complete drek that I suspect a lot of folks don't see the utility in plopping down $25 or $30 for great quality on something they barely want to watch once.

Here the reality on streaming. I am reading more and more comments from the CEO of Netflix complaining about data caps the telecoms and cable company's are instituting. But you have to notice something else here. Why has no streaming company come forward as a industry leader? It is because the studios don't want any one streaming company to be powerful, they want to keep the leverage their way. So they either make exclusive deals, or they makes the same deal with everyone so no one comes out ahead.

The second thing is as streaming becomes more and more popular, the cost of content is going to go through the roof - which means higher prices. So, you have data caps, a real potential for higher prices, and difficulties getting quality content.

[bobsticks]

Here the reality on streaming. I am reading more and more comments from the CEO of Netflix complaining about data caps the telecoms and cable company's are instituting. But you have to notice something else here. Why has no streaming company come forward as a industry leader? It is because the studios don't want any one streaming company to be powerful, they want to keep the leverage their way. So they either make exclusive deals, or they makes the same deal with everyone so no one comes out ahead.

The second thing is as streaming becomes more and more popular, the cost of content is going to go through the roof - which means higher prices. So, you have data caps, a real potential for higher prices, and difficulties getting quality content.

That makes a lot of sense and fairly represents the supply side of the equation.

At the same time, Feanor's scenario...from the demand side...resonates within my little "kanoggin", if only because I can barely list ten movies within the last 4 or 5 years that I'd want to rent right now much less own for multiple viewings.

The only thing that's sure is that the quality-minded consumer is caught between a rock and a hard space.

[GMichael]

For the young who seem not to tire of the same show over & over & over, that's where we use the DVR, record the shows from the channel onto the harddrive.

We do the same. Eventually though, she starts asking to see it in her room.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I wonder if bluray will fill the void (especially as you sid such as older movies) left by DVDs as less and less tiltes are becoming available on DVDs. I imagine cost of remastering the film for bluray format might be one reason the void might not get filled, especially with less popular titles.

Not exactly Smoke. Warner and Paramount are about to release some high value catalog titles that they have spent millions remastering and restoring. Why would they do this? Because they more than make their money back in sales of those titles.

Disney has restored many of their classics for the same reason - they sell like hotcakes.

[RGA]

I understand the industry doing everything it can to protect copyright so they have lawsuits against people who will never possibly be able to afford the fines and they try to take down a torrent site and 5 more pop out as soon as one goes down.

But this is not lost dollars. The people who download the stuff for free - are not suddenly going to buy the things that they downloaded. It's not like they're going to see a sizable amount of revenue.

Rich people can simply walk into a Best Buy and buy 100 new release Blu Ray titles without even glancing at the price tag. These people never download because they can watch anything they want whenever they want. Further they can bring their family of five to every movie opening and buy everyone the large Coke and popcorn - the same people who buy season tickets behind home plate to the Yankees.

I am not rich by any means but I am a LOT richer in Hong Kong than I was and that affords me the ability to spend money at a restaurant or bar without really blinking that I could not do before.

And that's the reality - the poor people or borderline midlle class I suspect make up 95% of the "stealers" (downloaders). Take them to court and fine them $675,000 as was apparently recently done and lots of luck ever seeing that money. It's an exercise in futility.

I didn't buy a Blu-Ray unless it was under $20.

I made it my policy. The simple reason for this is I don;t like pissing money into the toilet to support the out right greed of the industry. I learned my lesson when I paid $70 for the boxed collector set of Schindler's List on DVD and 2 months later it was on sale for $24.99. And now with Blu-Ray all of the DVDs are basically worthless. And I watched other things - Star Trek TNG season began life at $170 per season - and dropped to $49 and it would go $62 and some seasons would be $39.

They charge whatever they think they can get and sadly if people simply wait them out you will see the real price - which will be drastically lower.

This all goes back to the financial class system - you're rich you buy it - you're poor you download.

So the best way to get money to support the film and music industry is to tax the hell out of the hardware and anything that can be recorded to. Canada implemented a per blank disc tax which was pretty hefty.

Before the tax went into affect I purchased about 200 blank CDs and DVDs. The tax basically double or tripled I can't remember the price of each disc.

You accept that people will copy and you say right "The hard drive is $120 there will be a $350 support the industry tax" on each drive. Rich people won't care - they're still going to buy the blu ray not download it because they want the case they want the quality and besides they have a massive home where they can put the stuff. The poor guy sis going to copy because he always would but you made him at least give some money to the industry.

And remember once the hard drive blows up in 4-7 years he has to buy another drive and pay another tax.

SIN taxes work - use them.