Blockbuster to favor Blu-ray HD discs over DVD format

[nightflier]

I realize the Target & Blockbuster news does not bode well for the HD-DVD camp. But if there is one thing I do know about this industry, it is that formats die slowly, and sometimes are revived against all expectations (just think of vinyl). There are also some factors to remember like fact that HD-DVD does have a few technical advantages (albeit not insurmountable ones), that neither Microsoft, Universal, nor Toshiba have thrown in the towel, that LG does have a player that supports both formats and it seems to be selling OK, and that there are thousands of people with HD-DVD players out there, even more if you count Xbox-based players. My guess is that HD-DVD will fade in the same way that DVD-A did.

But what is most troubling is that this format war has damaged both sides. Blu-Ray may find that it has won a Pyhrric victory not unlike SACD and will likely be relegated to a niche format too. Online HD downloads are becoming more & more common and will offer advantages over DVD that may suffice for most people. This is relevant, too: HD downloads will offer advantages even to the millions who have HD sets but not 1080p capabilities (like all those people with only Component inputs and not HDMI). I dare say that this format war may thus have negatively affected the growth of 1080p TVs and equipment, too.

The bottom line is that a format war such as this one has far more of a downside than people think. Everyone would have been much better off if both camps had merged the technologies before bringing them to market. One hopes that there is still the possibility, however small, of bringing both technologies together into one disk format. But to cheer on the victory of one side over the other could perhaps do more damage than good.

[pixelthis]

I realize the Target & Blockbuster news does not bode well for the HD-DVD camp. But if there is one thing I do know about this industry, it is that formats die slowly, and sometimes are revived against all expectations (just think of vinyl). There are also some factors to remember like fact that HD-DVD does have a few technical advantages (albeit not insurmountable ones), that neither Microsoft, Universal, nor Toshiba have thrown in the towel, that LG does have a player that supports both formats and it seems to be selling OK, and that there are thousands of people with HD-DVD players out there, even more if you count Xbox-based players. My guess is that HD-DVD will fade in the same way that DVD-A did.

But what is most troubling is that this format war has damaged both sides. Blu-Ray may find that it has won a Pyhrric victory not unlike SACD and will likely be relegated to a niche format too. Online HD downloads are becoming more & more common and will offer advantages over DVD that may suffice for most people. This is relevant, too: HD downloads will offer advantages even to the millions who have HD sets but not 1080p capabilities (like all those people with only Component inputs and not HDMI). I dare say that this format war may thus have negatively affected the growth of 1080p TVs and equipment, too.

The bottom line is that a format war such as this one has far more of a downside than people think. Everyone would have been much better off if both camps had merged the technologies before bringing them to market. One hopes that there is still the possibility, however small, of bringing both technologies together into one disk format. But to cheer on the victory of one side over the other could perhaps do more damage than good.

I bought my first VCR in the early eighties, it was a vhs.
Sure I preferred the sony, and the selection was about even with models from both camps,
but everybody I knew was buying vhs, and I liked the six hour record time also, and it wasnt a casual purchase, at 899$ it was roughly three grand in todays dollars, you couldnt buy something you couldnt rent tapes for.
Well, in a year Sony was GONE, you could only buy them in a few stores, adios.
A local rental store touting beta went outta business, wouldnt stop renting the tapes because they were "better".
I had lasedisc for years, after the advent of DVD It too was pretty much over in a year.
And vinyl is a special case, a niche product if ever there was one, kept alive by audiophiles
either living in denial or (like me) an attachment to their old discs.
The truth is that industry insiders have already discerned a "winner", and its blu-ray.
HDDVD will be pretty much gone in a year, guarentee it, especially if the only (one!) studio supporting it starts in with Blu-ray.
HDDVD, the edsel for the 21st century

[drseid]

I bought my first VCR in the early eighties, it was a vhs.
Sure I preferred the sony, and the selection was about even with models from both camps,
but everybody I knew was buying vhs, and I liked the six hour record time also, and it wasnt a casual purchase, at 899$ it was roughly three grand in todays dollars, you couldnt buy something you couldnt rent tapes for.
Well, in a year Sony was GONE, you could only buy them in a few stores, adios.
A local rental store touting beta went outta business, wouldnt stop renting the tapes because they were "better".
I had lasedisc for years, after the advent of DVD It too was pretty much over in a year.
And vinyl is a special case, a niche product if ever there was one, kept alive by audiophiles
either living in denial or (like me) an attachment to their old discs.
The truth is that industry insiders have already discerned a "winner", and its blu-ray.
HDDVD will be pretty much gone in a year, guarentee it, especially if the only (one!) studio supporting it starts in with Blu-ray.
HDDVD, the edsel for the 21st century

What do we get it HD DVD lasts more than a year and you fail on the gaurantee? ;-)

I am certainly not proclaiming HD DVD the winner or anything like it, but I am pretty confident it will be around much longer than a year... I guess we will see.

Also, keep in mind HD DVD has many studios that support it, I assume you are referring to the one *major* studio that supports it *exclusively*?

---Dave

[Woochifer]

I realize the Target & Blockbuster news does not bode well for the HD-DVD camp. But if there is one thing I do know about this industry, it is that formats die slowly, and sometimes are revived against all expectations (just think of vinyl).

You're right in the sense that formats die slowly (Betamax didn't "die" until 2002 when Sony finally stopped producing Beta VCRs), but once formats get relegated to the back aisles, they never get "revivied" (think cassette, 8-track, Minidisc, DCC, CED, Laserdisc, D-VHS, DIVX, etc.) Vinyl's an example of a mass market format that has been relegated to a niche format. I still own a turntable and occasionally buy new LPs, but most of the music I'm looking for isn't available on vinyl and if it is, will usually cost a lot more than the CD. Personally, I think that the periodic talk of vinyl revivals is more wishful thinking than anything reality-based. HD-DVD does not have any potential for future revival since it uses the same underlying video and audio codecs as Blu-ray.

But what is most troubling is that this format war has damaged both sides. Blu-Ray may find that it has won a Pyhrric victory not unlike SACD and will likely be relegated to a niche format too. Online HD downloads are becoming more & more common and will offer advantages over DVD that may suffice for most people. This is relevant, too: HD downloads will offer advantages even to the millions who have HD sets but not 1080p capabilities (like all those people with only Component inputs and not HDMI). I dare say that this format war may thus have negatively affected the growth of 1080p TVs and equipment, too.

I think you're right that this format war has had a net effect of impeding the market growth for HD optical media. Plenty of home theater owners who would've otherwise jumped in by now are still sitting out until they see a winner emerge, and the format war has created plenty of confusion and ill will.

I used to think that HD downloads would emerge sooner than later, thus creating a more time-critical imperative for one or both formats to gain market traction in a hurry. But, I think now that the primary factors that will make or break the market prospects for HD optical discs are how entrenched the DVD format has become, and whether the public considers HD a big enough deal to pay extra. The reason I'm less sold on HD downloads/HD VOD is because HD VOD remains less than "on-demand" at prevailing household broadband speeds (fiber broadband remains too expensive and unavailable in much of the country), and most of the existing HD download schemes I'm aware of put time and/or view limits on the user, making them nothing more than glorified rentals. So long as these limitations remain in place, the market for HD optical media will be more affected by factors other than competition from on-demand services.

The market for HDTVs has exploded well into the mass market, but much of this is simply due to the declining options on the market for non-HDTVs. People are now very likely to replace their current TV with a HDTV, whether they care about HD resolution or not. I don't think the format war has impeded 1080p at all. Manufacturers would still throw those numbers around even if Blu-ray and HD-DVD did not exist (all you have to do is look at all of the "upconverting" 1080p DVD players out there). I think the broader availability of 1080p models was one major reason that LCD zoomed ahead of plasma in market share.

Part of the problem I think for consumers in audio shopping is the lack of distinction between Watts (Power) and the actual sound quality. How many times have you seen 1500 WATTS on the side of a "Box Surrond System". People are attracted to the large watts, and not so much on actual quality because for most of them more power equals better sound.

Well, there's also the form factor to consider as well. Consumers more and more are letting design and decor considerations dictate their audio equipment choices. Look no further than the growth of the on-wall speaker market (which did not even exist five years ago), and the continued popularity of the Bose Acoustimass system and its many sub/sat imitators. They could care less about specs as long as their speakers "match" their new flat panel TV.

Plus, unless you are in a boutique (sp0 audio shop, it is VERY difficult to hear, let alone compare various components. In the big box shops, loud is king.

It is easier to compare say two 50" plasma TV's. Oh look, that one has a sharper picture...etc.

Shocking as it may seem, most regular consumers don't get all wrapped up around high end sound. Its just not as important to them as it is to the passionated audiophiles lurking around in here.

Very true, and that's how it has always been. For example, lots of audiophiles get all wrapped up in the virtues of vinyl, but forget that when vinyl was the dominant format, most consumers played their LPs using record changers with stack spindles, crappy sounding detachable speakers, and spherical sapphire needles (and often a penny taped to the headshell to keep the needle from skipping!). Nowadays, it's all about downloads (but, compared to the sound of those old record changers, the MP3 is a huge step forward). The mass market has always been about what sounds "good enough" at their price point.

And you're right in that demonstrating the benefits of a high end audio system requires a reasonably quiet room with decent acoustics, and a properly done setup. Differentiating between 480p and 1080p in a warehouse club can be done, and the difference is apparent even in passing. Hearing the difference between a CD and SACD or between DD and TrueHD requires a lot more than just a random HTIB sitting in the middle of a noisy warehouse.

[pixelthis]

You're right in the sense that formats die slowly (Betamax didn't "die" until 2002 when Sony finally stopped producing Beta VCRs), but once formats get relegated to the back aisles, they never get "revivied" (think cassette, 8-track, Minidisc, DCC, CED, Laserdisc, D-VHS, DIVX, etc.) Vinyl's an example of a mass market format that has been relegated to a niche format. I still own a turntable and occasionally buy new LPs, but most of the music I'm looking for isn't available on vinyl and if it is, will usually cost a lot more than the CD. Personally, I think that the periodic talk of vinyl revivals is more wishful thinking than anything reality-based. HD-DVD does not have any potential for future revival since it uses the same underlying video and audio codecs as Blu-ray.



I think you're right that this format war has had a net effect of impeding the market growth for HD optical media. Plenty of home theater owners who would've otherwise jumped in by now are still sitting out until they see a winner emerge, and the format war has created plenty of confusion and ill will.

I used to think that HD downloads would emerge sooner than later, thus creating a more time-critical imperative for one or both formats to gain market traction in a hurry. But, I think now that the primary factors that will make or break the market prospects for HD optical discs are how entrenched the DVD format has become, and whether the public considers HD a big enough deal to pay extra. The reason I'm less sold on HD downloads/HD VOD is because HD VOD remains less than "on-demand" at prevailing household broadband speeds (fiber broadband remains too expensive and unavailable in much of the country), and most of the existing HD download schemes I'm aware of put time and/or view limits on the user, making them nothing more than glorified rentals. So long as these limitations remain in place, the market for HD optical media will be more affected by factors other than competition from on-demand services.

The market for HDTVs has exploded well into the mass market, but much of this is simply due to the declining options on the market for non-HDTVs. People are now very likely to replace their current TV with a HDTV, whether they care about HD resolution or not. I don't think the format war has impeded 1080p at all. Manufacturers would still throw those numbers around even if Blu-ray and HD-DVD did not exist (all you have to do is look at all of the "upconverting" 1080p DVD players out there). I think the broader availability of 1080p models was one major reason that LCD zoomed ahead of plasma in market share.



Well, there's also the form factor to consider as well. Consumers more and more are letting design and decor considerations dictate their audio equipment choices. Look no further than the growth of the on-wall speaker market (which did not even exist five years ago), and the continued popularity of the Bose Acoustimass system and its many sub/sat imitators. They could care less about specs as long as their speakers "match" their new flat panel TV.



Very true, and that's how it has always been. For example, lots of audiophiles get all wrapped up in the virtues of vinyl, but forget that when vinyl was the dominant format, most consumers played their LPs using record changers with stack spindles, crappy sounding detachable speakers, and spherical sapphire needles (and often a penny taped to the headshell to keep the needle from skipping!). Nowadays, it's all about downloads (but, compared to the sound of those old record changers, the MP3 is a huge step forward). The mass market has always been about what sounds "good enough" at their price point.

And you're right in that demonstrating the benefits of a high end audio system requires a reasonably quiet room with decent acoustics, and a properly done setup. Differentiating between 480p and 1080p in a warehouse club can be done, and the difference is apparent even in passing. Hearing the difference between a CD and SACD or between DD and TrueHD requires a lot more than just a random HTIB sitting in the middle of a noisy warehouse.

It was pretty much over for beta in the early eighties.
Sony and a few amateur videographers kept it alive, but at the last the few that were sold were superbeta and ED beta, and most sales were outside the US.
AS for audio vs video I notice that you tend to lump two different things together peruvian.
How about apples and oranges? fords and chevys?
Its a problem for audiophiles who also like video to decide how much to spend on video versus audio, but most dont think that way.
For most music is what you DL on the web, listen to on your I-pod, most arent serious listeners who just sit and listen to music like most audiphiles do.
Most would like a HT sure, who wouldnt? WE ARE A VISUAL species, for dogs its smell
(100,000 times better than humans) and bats sound.
We can watch TV all day but try to get the average person to sit and listen for just a half hour, try it.
But for the rare audiophile its a problem, I AGONIZED over getting rid of my rig and going into the compromise that was my first HT, but for most the sound from a HT is probably
better than what they're used to.
A company on this site (mangus) is selling tiny t-amp digital amps, 20 wpc feeding small speakers, trust me this type thing (digital amps) is going to be the thing for mainstream HT systems, compact and sounding pretty good.
And when a audio based company like ONKYO IS SELLING DIGITAL AMPS, well, thats the wave of the future probably, amps with discrete componets will be like turntables,
niche products for those that dont want to compromise
But I think this tread is a little offtopic.
Oh yeah, the fate of HDDVD, which is CURTAINS
I have seen stronger formats tank.
As for what you "get " if I'm right, well, its what you wont "get", an expensive doorstop
or "boatanchor"(fill with concrete, makes a great boatanchor)
And if I am wrong? No harm or foul as Blu wjll be the dominant format

[PeruvianSkies]

It was pretty much over for beta in the early eighties.
Sony and a few amateur videographers kept it alive, but at the last the few that were sold were superbeta and ED beta, and most sales were outside the US.
AS for audio vs video I notice that you tend to lump two different things together peruvian.
How about apples and oranges? fords and chevys?
Its a problem for audiophiles who also like video to decide how much to spend on video versus audio, but most dont think that way.
For most music is what you DL on the web, listen to on your I-pod, most arent serious listeners who just sit and listen to music like most audiphiles do.
Most would like a HT sure, who wouldnt? WE ARE A VISUAL species, for dogs its smell
(100,000 times better than humans) and bats sound.
We can watch TV all day but try to get the average person to sit and listen for just a half hour, try it.
But for the rare audiophile its a problem, I AGONIZED over getting rid of my rig and going into the compromise that was my first HT, but for most the sound from a HT is probably
better than what they're used to.
A company on this site (mangus) is selling tiny t-amp digital amps, 20 wpc feeding small speakers, trust me this type thing (digital amps) is going to be the thing for mainstream HT systems, compact and sounding pretty good.
And when a audio based company like ONKYO IS SELLING DIGITAL AMPS, well, thats the wave of the future probably, amps with discrete componets will be like turntables,
niche products for those that dont want to compromise
But I think this tread is a little offtopic.
Oh yeah, the fate of HDDVD, which is CURTAINS
I have seen stronger formats tank.
As for what you "get " if I'm right, well, its what you wont "get", an expensive doorstop
or "boatanchor"(fill with concrete, makes a great boatanchor)
And if I am wrong? No harm or foul as Blu wjll be the dominant format

While Audio and Video might be two different things, they work together quite often. Apples and Oranges might taste different, but they also have a lot in common: both fruits, both grow on trees, both round, both can be used to make drinks, both have seeds inside, etc etc etc. I grouped audio and video together because I was in A/V club...ok!

[drseid]

Oh yeah, the fate of HDDVD, which is CURTAINS
I have seen stronger formats tank.
As for what you "get " if I'm right, well, its what you wont "get", an expensive doorstop
or "boatanchor"(fill with concrete, makes a great boatanchor)
And if I am wrong? No harm or foul as Blu wjll be the dominant format

...and I have seen weaker formats succeed.

As for the guarantee... What kind of prize is that? ;-) I was hoping for maybe some extra software to add to my HD DVD collection (maybe that nice Harry Potter collection coming out in the fall?)... oh well.

We will see, I guess. With Toshiba coming out with new 3rd gen models in October; one with a street price of $199 (the HD-A3) versus Blu-ray, offering the blockbuster Spiderman trilogy, it is going to be an interesting holiday season. The best part is I win either way. :-)

---Dave

[nightflier]

We will see, I guess. With Toshiba coming out with new 3rd gen models in October; one with a street price of $199 (the HD-A3) versus Blu-ray, offering the blockbuster Spiderman trilogy, it is going to be an interesting holiday season. The best part is I win either way. :-)

I think the $199 HD-DVD player is indicative of some un-touted advantages. As was mentioned in several earlier threads about the format war, HD-DVD players and disks are less difficult to manufacture and benefit from a bit less in licensing fees. Also, having been the first out of the gate, HD-DVD has had more time in the market to allow prices to fall. I think both these factors have made it possible for Toshiba and Microsoft to lower the price of their players well beyond what Sony and the rest of the Blu-Ray camp have been able to offer.

I think this is significant and could very well give them a bump in this race. $199 for a player coming out in September is ideal for them as this gives ample time to ramp up production for the coming xmas season. With sales, rebates, and bundle pricing, I can easily picture a $99 player on sale at CC/BB right after Thanksgiving. This would be attractive to anyone looking to replace an aging standard DVD player.

Personally, I still want to see this price advantage trickle down to the cost of the disks, but maybe by xmas that may actually happen. They are already slightly lower than BR disks at some stores, which I imagine is fallout from the barrage of premature tales of doom-and-gloom that BR has won the war. If HD-DVD disks drop in price some more and offer real cost-savings compared to BR, the tide could very well change (much to Pixel's chagrin, I'm sure).