Toshiba fights back......well kind of

[L.J.]

"Toshiba Deploys New HD DVD Marketing Initiatives Based on Strong Fourth Quarter Unit Sales


Mass Market Acceptance Confirms that HD DVD is the Consumer's Choice for
Next Generation High Def Entertainment

WAYNE, N.J., Jan. 14 /PRNewswire/ -- Toshiba America Consumer Products,
L.L.C. ("Toshiba") today announced that it is stepping up its successful
marketing campaign for HD DVD as it experienced record-breaking unit sales
in the fourth quarter of 2007. Major initiatives, including joint
advertising campaigns with studios and extended pricing strategies will
begin in mid- January and are designed to spotlight the superior benefits
of HD DVD as well as the benefits HD DVD brings to a consumer's current DVD
library by upconverting standard DVDs via the HDMI(TM) output to near high
definition picture quality.

As Toshiba achieved the #1 sales volume in the next generation DVD
category with an approximately 50 percent market share in 2007, HD DVD is
proven to be the format of choice for consumers. Coupled with an 80 percent
plus market share of all next generation DVD equipped notebooks for the 4th
quarter 2007, the HD DVD format has already paved the way to a high
definition digital AV solution by eliminating the boundaries between the
consumer's living room and on the go.

HD DVD not only creates the ultimate high definition entertainment
experience, leveraging all of the promise of the format such as superior
audio/video performance, Web-enabled network capabilities and advanced
interactive features - it also has a high-level of compatibility with DVD.
With DVD upconversion via the HDMI output, HD DVD players instantly make a
movie lover's existing DVD library look better than ever.

"HD DVD is the best way to watch movies in high definition," said Jodi
Sally, Vice President of Marketing, Toshiba's Digital A/V Group. "Our HD
DVD players not only play back approximately 800 HD DVD titles available
worldwide and deliver an entirely new level of entertainment but also
enhance the picture quality to near high definition on legacy DVD titles by
all studios. In short, we added high def to DVD which already is the de
facto standard format created and approved by the DVD Forum that consists
of more than two hundred companies."

New Marketing Strategy for Mass Market Adoption

Taking the holiday season sales based on promotional prices into full
consideration, these new manufacturer's suggested retail prices (MSRP) are
designed to meet the potential demand for HD DVD players in the U.S.
market. Effective on January 13, 2008 the MSRP of the entry-model HD-A3
will be $149.99, the HD-A30, with 1080p output, $199.99, and the high-end
HD-A35, $299.99.

"While price is one of the consideration elements for the early
adopter, it is a deal-breaker for the mainstream consumer," said Yoshi
Uchiyama, Group Vice President Digital A/V Group. "Consumer sales this
holiday season have proven that the consumer awareness of the HD DVD format
has been elevated and pricing is the most critical determinant in
consumers' purchase decision of

the next generation HD DVD technology. The value HD DVD provides to the
consumer simply cannot be ignored."

Extended Advertising Campaign

Toshiba plans to execute an extended advertising campaign that will
further enhance consumer awareness of the benefits of HD DVD and drive
sales to retail among potential consumers. Advertising strategies will
include television, print and online media channels. Toshiba will also work
with its dealers and studio partners on joint marketing and promotional
initiatives to promote HD DVD. Current promotions include "The Perfect HD
Offer" - a mail-in offer allowing consumers to select five HD DVD titles
for free from a selection of 15 with the purchase of any Toshiba HD DVD
player.

Consistent Viewing Experience and More

With advanced interactivity and Web-enabled network capabilities built
into every HD DVD player through a dedicated Ethernet port as mandated by
the specifications approved by the DVD Forum, Toshiba delivers on the
promise of a consistent entertainment experience through firmware updates
as studios launch new applications. HD DVD allows studios to flex their
creative muscle in ways never before seen. The latest of these new
experiences is online streaming. Now, when consumers connect their HD DVD
player to the Internet, they can stream new content or trailers, as
available, directly from a movie studio's server.

Universal Home Video, Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks Animation SKG
have reported that an average of 30 percent of HD DVD owners have accessed
Web- enabled network features and continue to do so regularly.

Ongoing Customer Commitment

In order to ensure that its customers will receive complete
satisfaction from their new players, Toshiba introduced the "HD DVD
Concierge" earlier this month. Consumers can now call 1-888-MY HDDVD
(1-888-694-3383) for answers to general questions about HD DVD, for
operational assistance or for assistance with various promotions.

About Toshiba HD DVD Players

With the HD DVD format, select HD DVD players allow consumers to
experience true high def 1080p for extraordinary resolution that matches
the latest state of the art 1080p HDTVs. These same players display images
at 24 frames per second, the same frame rate used by directors when using
film to create motion pictures, for a smoother, more film-like, viewing
experience.

Important Notes:

HD DVD with high-definition content required for HD viewing. Up-
conversion of DVD content will result in near HD picture quality. Viewing
high-definition content and up-converting DVD content may require an HDCP
capable DVI or HDMI input on your display device. 1080p capable display
required for viewing content in 1080p. Firmware update may be required for
some interactive features depending on content, which may also require an
always-on broadband internet connection. Some features may require
additional bandwidth. To take advantage of web-enabled network content,
installing the latest firmware (ver.2.4 for HD DVD player models HD-XA1,
HD-A1, and HD-D1; ver.2.7 for HD-XA2, HD-A2, HD-A2W, HD-D2, HD-A2C, and
HD-A20; and ver.1.3 for HD-A35, HD-A30, and HD-A3) is required. Web-enabled
network features require an always on broadband connection along with
specific movie titles that include this form of content. For 24p output,
content that was created in 1080p/24 frames/sec is required. Viewing 24p
output requires an HD display capable of accepting a 1080p/24Hz signal. Use
of REGZA Link, which is a feature based on HDMI-CEC, requires an HDMI-CEC
compatible display device. Depending on the specifications of your TV, some
or all REGZA Link functions may not work even if your TV is HDMI-CEC
compatible. Dolby(R) Digital Plus, Dolby(R) TrueHD and DTS(R) support for
up to 5.1 channels (DTS HD(R) support for DTS(R) core only). MP3/WMA audio
files not supported. HDMI audio output requires connection to a PCM capable
device. Because HD DVD is a new format that makes use of new technologies,
certain disc, digital connection and other compatibility and/or performance
issues are possible. This may, in rare cases, include disc freezing while
accessing certain disc features or functions, or certain parts of the disc
not playing back or operating as fully intended. If you experience such
issues, please refer to the FAQ sections of http://www.toshibahddvd.com or
http://www.tacp.toshiba.com for information on possible work- around solutions or
the availability of firmware updates that may resolve your problem, or
contact Toshiba Customer Solutions. Some features subject to delayed
availability. While every effort has been made at the time of publication
to ensure the accuracy of the information provided herein, product
specifications, configurations, system/component/options availability are
all subject to change without notice.

About Toshiba America Consumer Products, L.L.C.

Toshiba America Consumer Products, L.L.C. is owned by Toshiba America,
Inc., a subsidiary of Toshiba Corporation, a world leader in high
technology products with subsidiaries worldwide. Toshiba is a pioneer in HD
DVD, DVD and DVD Recorder technology and a leading manufacturer of a full
line of home entertainment products, including flat panel TV, combination
products and portable devices. Toshiba America Consumer Products, L.L.C. is
headquartered in Wayne, New Jersey. For additional information, please
visit http://www.tacp.toshiba.com."

http://prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/storie...4735440&EDATE=

[L.J.]

Sounds like a fire sale to me. People have no clue what is going on. Sorry for the poor folks that are gonna get suckered in by price slashes, only find out later that the format is dying. Hopefully there are knowledgeable sales people at retail stores to warn people.

[blackraven]

People should boycott Toshiba. They see the end coming and they are dumping all their HD players on unsuspecting consumers. They have nothing to lose. By flooding the market with HD players they are trying to force the movie studio's to back HD. And if toshiba loses, then at least they have unloaded surplus players sitting in warehouses and have recouped some money.

[kexodusc]

Yep, sounds like border-line dumping of a non-international trade type.
Wow. Know what, with 5 free movies, I'm tempted to snarf a $100-$150 player just to be an up-scaler now if nothing else.

My hope here is that Sony calls and drops prices accordingly...that would be sweet.

[GMichael]

Too little, too late.

[dean_martin]

Yep, sounds like border-line dumping of a non-international trade type.
Wow. Know what, with 5 free movies, I'm tempted to snarf a $100-$150 player just to be an up-scaler now if nothing else.

My hope here is that Sony calls and drops prices accordingly...that would be sweet.

*Toshiba's upscaling is very, very good through its hdmi connection. That's my experience playing sd dvds on the older A2 using its hdmi connection.

*Be prepared to wait approx. 4 mos. for your freebies. I bought my player on Aug. 29 and probably sent in my paperwork the first week of Sept. I got my freebies the first week of Jan.

*I saw an advertised price of $265 on the Sony 300 BR player (not sure of the complete model #, but it's the one with "300" in the title) over the weekend from one of the big chains. It may have been Best Buy. I think it included 5 freebies thru the mail too but don't hold me to it. That's the lowest I've seen for a Sony BR. How do these do with sd dvds?

*Personally, I think Warner played a role in sticking it to consumers by waiting until AFTER the Christmas shopping season to make its announcement - not just afterwards, but IMMEDIATELY afterwards. That's like pulling the rug out from under a whole segment of hd converts. It may not be a lot in absolute numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if Toshiba/HDDVD players outsold BR players in the last quarter of '07.

[Woochifer]

At the very least, this is very good pricing on some already highly subsidized gear. Figure that the purchase includes a few free HD-DVD. And even if/when the format goes belly up, you'll still have a pretty good upscaling DVD player and something that will play all those dirt cheap HD-DVDs that will start showing up when stores and collectors alike begin unloading their inventories.

I expect that HD-DVD will disappear at the retail level long before support from its remaining studios and Toshiba dries up. Studios were still releasing Betamax titles long after it became nearly impossible to find Beta movies in video stores, and Sony did not stop making Betamax VCRs until 2004.

[GMichael]

Sony did not stop making Betamax VCRs until 2004.

Any idea who was buying them? Someone must have been buying them for Sony to bother making them that long.

[nightflier]

Any idea who was buying them? Someone must have been buying them for Sony to bother making them that long.

The betamax survived because people in the business (video and sound editors) had standardized on beta for the higher quality. Sony was supplying them with product long after the retail demand had dried up.

Speaking of HD-DVD's demize, I wouldn't call this a BR victory, either. Yes, I know I was one who posted multiple scenarios that I figured would have changed the outcome, but it does look now like HD-DVD is going to die a slow painful death. Over at CES, the booths and presentations were overwhelmingly in favor of BR. But the other thing that was apparent was that downloadable content is on every manufacturer's agenda now. The fact is the format war lasted so long that it damaged both sides and gave downloaded content a real chance. Here's an article that came out this morning (apologies for the #$%@# ads):

http://www.computerworld.com/action/...8&pageNumber=1

I know that's not what everyone who bought an HD player wants to hear, but I think the widespread interest in downloadable content at CES is pretty damning for HD-DVD as well as BR.

[blackraven]

This is way in sony's favor because now they don't have to drop prices as they know their competion is dying. It will be interesting to see what sony does with their prices. They can slash prices to hasten the death of HD or keep prices where they are and let HD die slowly.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Speaking of HD-DVD's demize, I wouldn't call this a BR victory, either. Yes, I know I was one who posted multiple scenarios that I figured would have changed the outcome, but it does look now like HD-DVD is going to die a slow painful death. Over at CES, the booths and presentations were overwhelmingly in favor of BR. But the other thing that was apparent was that downloadable content is on every manufacturer's agenda now. The fact is the format war lasted so long that it damaged both sides and gave downloaded content a real chance. Here's an article that came out this morning (apologies for the #$%@# ads):

http://www.computerworld.com/action/...8&pageNumber=1

There is one thing you just do not get, the American public is not ready for downloads to replace disc. The only thing downloads will effect is renting, and that is basically it. As far as I can see nobody is ready to trust their movie collection on a hard drive that can be corrupted and hacked, potentially ruining their library.

VOD, PPV has been around for ten years in my neighborhood. In ten years it has blossomed into a $200 million dollar a year business(downloads and VOD combined). In that same period of time the DVD was introduced, and has grown to a $42 billion a year business. Our internet is not ready for mass downloading and the studios are not going to support downloading over disc, they have already stated this. The vote againist HD DVD by Warner is widely seen as a rejection of Microsoft vision of movie distribution.

Bluray won this, and you need to face it. I told you it was going to happen, but you insisted that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price. It didn't help then, its not going to help now. Paramount is going neutral(it is going to happen for sure), and Universal will be the last to hold out(countering my earlier prediction because of new events)

I know that's not what everyone who bought an HD player wants to hear, but I think the widespread interest in downloadable content at CES is pretty damning for HD-DVD as well as BR.

You have not been paying much attention to CES as of the last four years have. Downloading has been pushed every year in that period. Same interest generated, and still the public is not ready to buy it. So you can just give your internet sales job a rest. You have already been wrong once, so there is no reason to believe your predictions are any more accurate this time. Opinion pieces from a computer pundit is hardly a basis for fact. Especially since we are talking video, not computers. The guy doesn't even have his sales figures correct. And this is a basis of your point???

[Mr Peabody]

That's it, I'm switching to HD-DVD! Hell, nobody told me I could download trailers. I can download those babies and make everyone wait 20 minutes for the movie just like the real theater!

If this downloading comes about I can see when new house are built there will be a multimedia interface panel in the living room, or every room in the house. Not just a power outlet anymore, you need power, phone, ethernet. possibly a cable feed and who knows what else. What? What did you say? "Sorry Peabody, I can't let you do that". Is that you Hal?

[pixelthis]

The betamax survived because people in the business (video and sound editors) had standardized on beta for the higher quality. Sony was supplying them with product long after the retail demand had dried up.

Speaking of HD-DVD's demize, I wouldn't call this a BR victory, either. Yes, I know I was one who posted multiple scenarios that I figured would have changed the outcome, but it does look now like HD-DVD is going to die a slow painful death. Over at CES, the booths and presentations were overwhelmingly in favor of BR. But the other thing that was apparent was that downloadable content is on every manufacturer's agenda now. The fact is the format war lasted so long that it damaged both sides and gave downloaded content a real chance. Here's an article that came out this morning (apologies for the #$%@# ads):

http://www.computerworld.com/action/...8&pageNumber=1

I know that's not what everyone who bought an HD player wants to hear, but I think the widespread interest in downloadable content at CES is pretty damning for HD-DVD as well as BR.

GREAT LINK, but dont expect anymore from Sir T than the reply hes already posted.
Downloading is the enemy of the optical format his company is touting.
Not that it matters what he thinks, nor his little tricks, like concentrating on Internet
downloading, when Cable is whats strong and will be out of the gate faster.
He'll also tell you that the net doesnt have the "capacity" for massive downloading,
well, the oil supply doesnt have the capacity to keep churning out silver discs with content you can get over a wire.
I have heard about the "limited" capacity of the web for years, and it keeps expanding like a supernova.
I remember the first Mp3 I downloaded, took half an hour for a 5 mg file.
Today I download entire albums in the same time off of newsgroups, and PAYPERVIEW (vod) doesnt take anytime.

I have a 99$ 320 gig usb drive that I got from short circuit, its going to house my music collection, be both portable AND accessible, with sound rivaling a high end CD player.
High end CD players are basically obsolete, btw.
how much video is that? 347 hrs. HD video? 38 hrs.
The future is the hard drive, basically, thousands have been working on these in labs for years, quietly expanding capacity.
And you're a collector? Show that you have already bought a movie, and it will be replaced if you lose it, at least thats the idea being worked on now.
DVD was such an advance that it was a no- brainer to replace everything, which I did.
But as much as I like Blu, the picture is not enough of an improvement to warrant changing everything out, there are few Bladerunners out there, discs that you just HAVE
to have

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

GREAT LINK, but dont expect anymore from Sir T than the reply hes already posted.
Downloading is the enemy of the optical format his company is touting.
Not that it matters what he thinks, nor his little tricks, like concentrating on Internet
downloading, when Cable is whats strong and will be out of the gate faster.
He'll also tell you that the net doesnt have the "capacity" for massive downloading,
well, the oil supply doesnt have the capacity to keep churning out silver discs with content you can get over a wire.
I have heard about the "limited" capacity of the web for years, and it keeps expanding like a supernova.
I remember the first Mp3 I downloaded, took half an hour for a 5 mg file.
Today I download entire albums in the same time off of newsgroups, and PAYPERVIEW (vod) doesnt take anytime.

I have a 99$ 320 gig usb drive that I got from short circuit, its going to house my music collection, be both portable AND accessible, with sound rivaling a high end CD player.
High end CD players are basically obsolete, btw.
how much video is that? 347 hrs. HD video? 38 hrs.
The future is the hard drive, basically, thousands have been working on these in labs for years, quietly expanding capacity.
And you're a collector? Show that you have already bought a movie, and it will be replaced if you lose it, at least thats the idea being worked on now.
DVD was such an advance that it was a no- brainer to replace everything, which I did.
But as much as I like Blu, the picture is not enough of an improvement to warrant changing everything out, there are few Bladerunners out there, discs that you just HAVE
to have

Sorry Pix,,
But the same issues that dog downloading over the internet dog VOD on cable systems. VOD of movies is a huge bandwidth hog. VOD is not making any money, and hasn't in three years. Downloading via the internet is not making any money either as three downloading services(including Walmarts) have already gone under.

Cable systems have to increase their bandwidth tremendously to send a 1080p file that is not overcompressed along with lossless audio. They are going to have to make it much cheaper, and to compete with disc it will have to come with less DRM. That is not going to happen. For both downloading and VOD they want MORE DRM to protect their investments.

VOD and Downloading are going to effect the rental market profoundly, it is not going to effect the disc collector for a long time until it can match the quality and performance of disc, is ownable and moveable like a disc is.

So what do I do, tell my buddy I am bringing my hard drive over so we can view movies, or do I tell him I will bring a movie disc to watch. Guess which I am willing to carry over?

In order for cable to be strong, its got to make money. A market that has only grown to $200 million in 10 years is not what I call strong or what anyone else with good sense would call strong.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

*Toshiba's upscaling is very, very good through its hdmi connection. That's my experience playing sd dvds on the older A2 using its hdmi connection.

The XA-2 and the A-35 alos upscale very well. But so does the PS3, Samsung BD-P1200, the Panasonics, the Sony, and all of the bluray players.

*Be prepared to wait approx. 4 mos. for your freebies. I bought my player on Aug. 29 and probably sent in my paperwork the first week of Sept. I got my freebies the first week of Jan.

In a short while you will be getting alot of HD DVD movies off ebay for cheap.

*I saw an advertised price of $265 on the Sony 300 BR player (not sure of the complete model #, but it's the one with "300" in the title) over the weekend from one of the big chains. It may have been Best Buy. I think it included 5 freebies thru the mail too but don't hold me to it. That's the lowest I've seen for a Sony BR. How do these do with sd dvds?

Its the Sony BDP-S300, and it does upscaling on par with the A2

*Personally, I think Warner played a role in sticking it to consumers by waiting until AFTER the Christmas shopping season to make its announcement - not just afterwards, but IMMEDIATELY afterwards. That's like pulling the rug out from under a whole segment of hd converts. It may not be a lot in absolute numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if Toshiba/HDDVD players outsold BR players in the last quarter of '07.

Dean, Warner announced at IFA 2007 in September that they would be looking at the fourth quarter sales figures and make a decision in early 2008 of which format to exclusively support. Sales figures remained 2-1 in favor of bluray throughout all of 2007, and player sales in December had Bluray standalones outselling HD DVD's, and bluray players including the PS3 outselling HD DVD 4-1. Worldwide, Bluray players have outsold HD DVD 4-1 in Europe, and its a complete blowout in Japan at 95% of all players sold. Warner looked at all of this, and decided to support bluray. It was a smart decision, and this format war has to end if this market is going to grow.

Toshiba didn't not promote their format well worldwide or in the states. They didn't get the studio support they promised, and their strategy of cutting prices to the point that every player is a loss has backfired and cost Toshiba $420 million dollars in losses. Their stock is down, and they are borrowing money to fuel these new price cuts on their players. They have not gotten a bluray manufacturer to switch to producing an original designed HD DVD player like they promised Paramount, and they were not sucessful in getting a bluray exclusive studio to switch sides as they have promised Paramount.

At least Warner is honoring their contract to the end, unlike Paramount which pulled product immediately and destroyed it cancelling orders left and right.

[Groundbeef]

Cable systems have to increase their bandwidth tremendously to send a 1080p file that is not overcompressed along with lossless audio. They are going to have to make it much cheaper, and to compete with disc it will have to come with less DRM. That is not going to happen. For both downloading and VOD they want MORE DRM to protect their investments.

VOD and Downloading are going to effect the rental market profoundly, it is not going to effect the disc collector for a long time until it can match the quality and performance of disc, is ownable and moveable like a disc is.

So what do I do, tell my buddy I am bringing my hard drive over so we can view movies, or do I tell him I will bring a movie disc to watch. Guess which I am willing to carry over?

.

2 points Sir T. It appears that your main sticking point to VOD/Digital Delivery is its lack of 1080p/lossless audio. For YOUR setup/AV gear, DD/VOD may not be the best choice, but most casual users don't have your setup. 720p, 5.1 should suffice for most "average" users.

Its not really fair to say that its not going to be successful until it is a standard 1080p/lossless. After all, DVD isn't even that quality, and its doing just fine.

2nd point. Although you point about bringing a disk versus a HD is "funny" its not really going to mean much in even a few months. Right now you can get 8 gig flash drives (USB key ring thingies), and thats enough to hold an uncompressed DVD w/audio.

Within a year, solid state HD technology will be 2X or 3X that capacity. More than enough for a HD movie with modest compression, and certainly not enough to be a problem to carry around. In this fashion, it doesn't seem improbable for consumers to d/l a movie and park it on a memory stick to take around.

Even your PS3 can read a memory stick. Pretty impressive for a game machine I might add...

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

2 points Sir T. It appears that your main sticking point to VOD/Digital Delivery is its lack of 1080p/lossless audio. For YOUR setup/AV gear, DD/VOD may not be the best choice, but most casual users don't have your setup. 720p, 5.1 should suffice for most "average" users.

Beef, there are alot more people out there with high end theaters than you think. There are alot more people out there with good to very good equipment. You cannot expect them to go back to 720p after seeing 1080p images on large screens. If you are not trying to include them in your downloading theory, then downloads will not succeed. Innovation is always driven by early adopters. If you cannot get their attention(and VOD and downloading by all means has not) then you cannot expect it to succeed. Not alot of folks are going to buy a 360 just to get Live. Not many folks are going to pay the premium price for VOD and not be able to own it.

Its not really fair to say that its not going to be successful until it is a standard 1080p/lossless. After all, DVD isn't even that quality, and its doing just fine.

The quality of DVD exceeds most downloads largely because the audio and video is not nearly as compressed as both in VOD and downloads. Both HD DVD and Bluray folks(which now exceed the VOD and downloading folks) have been looking at high quality 1080p images, and listening to PCM or DTHD for almost two years. You are going to have to reach at least that level if masses(both high end and low end folks) are going towards downloads and VOD.

2nd point. Although you point about bringing a disk versus a HD is "funny" its not really going to mean much in even a few months. Right now you can get 8 gig flash drives (USB key ring thingies), and thats enough to hold an uncompressed DVD w/audio.

There is no such thing as uncompressed DVD. Everything pertaining to the DVD is compressed. Besides, uncompressed audio without video is pretty useless in a video format. If we now have disc that have almost 48 gigs of information(Pirates of the Carribean with extras) then its going to take alot of those sticks to make it happen. We are not there yet.

Within a year, solid state HD technology will be 2X or 3X that capacity. More than enough for a HD movie with modest compression, and certainly not enough to be a problem to carry around. In this fashion, it doesn't seem improbable for consumers to d/l a movie and park it on a memory stick to take around.

So what if the flash drive gets corrupted. Not much use is it? What if because of DRM it cannot be played in but one place(that is going to be a reality) to prevent pirating. What kind of copy protection could it have? It will have to have copy protection or the studio are not going to touch it. Without content, what is the point?

The point I am trying to make to you is while all of these are still in developement, BR and HD DVD to a lesser extinct have grown to be a larger revenue base than download and VOD put together. Until everyone(studios and consumers) abandon disc altogether, do not expect the studio to support a new technology.

Even your PS3 can read a memory stick. Pretty impressive for a game machine I might add...

If this is another one of your immature digs, I ain't biting. But remember what you said in the off topic section about how we discuss things. Do not dig if you don't want to start a war.

[Groundbeef]

Beef, there are alot more people out there with high end theaters than you think. There are alot more people out there with good to very good equipment. You cannot expect them to go back to 720p after seeing 1080p images on large screens. If you are not trying to include them in your downloading theory, then downloads will not succeed. Innovation is always driven by early adopters. If you cannot get their attention(and VOD and downloading by all means has not) then you cannot expect it to succeed. Not alot of folks are going to buy a 360 just to get Live. Not many folks are going to pay the premium price for VOD and not be able to own it. .

I'm not discounting your theory, and I'm not underestimating the size of the market that ownes top shelf equipment. However, for every 10K home theater( or more) there are plenty of folks with a HDTV, HT in a box, and composite (red, white, yellow) connections.
Furthermore, I'm not going to spend $30 on a BR (or HD-DVD) for my kids. DD/VOD will be fine for them thank you very much.

As much as you take me to task for "ignoring" groups, you tend to give little credence to the general market, and instead focus on the top 5%. Unfortunatly, there is the other 95% that studios need to market to as well.

The quality of DVD exceeds most downloads largely because the audio and video is not nearly as compressed as both in VOD and downloads. Both HD DVD and Bluray folks(which now exceed the VOD and downloading folks) have been looking at high quality 1080p images, and listening to PCM or DTHD for almost two years. You are going to have to reach at least that level if masses(both high end and low end folks) are going towards downloads and VOD. .

Again, your right with the top 5% of the market. But for casual users, I don't see it as a problem.

There is no such thing as uncompressed DVD. Everything pertaining to the DVD is compressed. Besides, uncompressed audio without video is pretty useless in a video format. If we now have disc that have almost 48 gigs of information(Pirates of the Carribean with extras) then its going to take alot of those sticks to make it happen. We are not there yet. .

I mis-spoke. A standard DVD can be "copied" onto a D/L (dual layer) blank DVD with no "additional" compression. So it would seem to reason that a DVD could be copied onto a flash drive with little or no additional compression as well. Thats what a I meant. Sorry for the confusion.

So what if the flash drive gets corrupted. Not much use is it? What if because of DRM it cannot be played in but one place(that is going to be a reality) to prevent pirating. What kind of copy protection could it have? It will have to have copy protection or the studio are not going to touch it. Without content, what is the point? .

To your point, what if the physical media gets ruined? If you kid scratches the Nemo BR, your out $30. If I corrupt my flash drive, I re-copy it to something else. Thats actually a counterpoint for owning physical copies.

This is a little off topic, but I feel that copy protection is going to actually end studio sales sooner than later. Consumers are only going to put up with so much/many hoops to jump through. Pretty soon, its going to be as irritating as Toyota only allowing Prius Cars to be run in the carpool lanes. Go into general traffic and a GPS device will shut down the engine.

If I buy a copy of a movie (disk or otherwise) legally, I should be able to take it where I damn well please. If I want to make copies of my LEGALLY purchased DVD's so my kids don't ruin the master copy, I should be able to do it. Digital CRM is gone awry IMHO.

I'm not sure how to balance it, but it seems that every "innovation" is becoming more and more anti-consumer.

The point I am trying to make to you is while all of these are still in developement, BR and HD DVD to a lesser extinct have grown to be a larger revenue base than download and VOD put together. Until everyone(studios and consumers) abandon disc altogether, do not expect the studio to support a new technology. .

I think it has more to do with convience rather than media. With BR/HD-DVD you buy a player, plop in a movie and watch. With VOD/DD you need a computer, or another device to d//l the product, and then watch it. If MS, or Dell, or Apple can actually get a device that is fairly inexpensive into the living room, I think things would be changing.

If this is another one of your immature digs, I ain't biting. But remember what you said in the off topic section about how we discuss things. Do not dig if you don't want to start a war.

I'm just seein' if your readin'!

[nightflier]

There is one thing you just do not get, the American public is not ready for downloads to replace disc. ...As far as I can see nobody is ready to trust their movie collection on a hard drive that can be corrupted and hacked, potentially ruining their library.

So you speak for the whole American public? LOL. It's absolute nonsense, and you know it. If the American public is willing to trust their whole music collection to disk, then there's no reason to believe they won't trust their movie collections to the same medium. I think the success of iTunes is a perfect example of how wrong your expectations are. You're wrong, and while I can't demonstrate it now, it will become apparent as downloading technology and marketshare increases. Come back here in a year and we'll see how silly your understanding of the American public is.

The only thing downloads will effect is renting, and that is basically it.

With regard to renting, you're attempting to dismiss the importance of it by slyly wedging it into the topic of downloading & owning - entirely unrelated. Yes, I had to cut and paste that sentence out separately from your quote, because as usual you're trying to confuse the argument. Renting is a huge part of this equation. What you don't seem to understand is that downloading is a cultural shift for people. The more they do it, either through Netflix, Amazon, iMovie, or Tivo, it creates an expectation that this is how movies, and even TV shows, are seen.

Netflix, and later Blockbuster revolutionized the renting industry by fundamentally changing two very important facets of renting: staying at home and vastly increasing choice. If you can understand nothing else, you can't possibly tell me that you can't see that downloading expands those conveniences further - not only is the choice expanded exponentially because from one screen the user has far more vendors to choose from, but the technology has advanced to allow the convenience of doing it all from their TV screens, not their slow-to-start and buggy computer in another room.

Now I know that flies in the face of our very real desire to physically touch & own the disks, but the cultural shift is much farther along than you are willing to admit. Yes, there is a psychological shift that has been under way for years. And as an owner of a huge record, CD, and DVD collection, I'll be the first to lament this trend, but I'm smart enough to see the writing on the wall, too. Yes, it's lower quality in a download, but the convenience far outweighs that shortcoming (more on that below).

VOD, PPV has been around for ten years in my neighborhood. In ten years it has blossomed into a $200 million dollar a year business (downloads and VOD combined). In that same period of time the DVD was introduced, and has grown to a $42 billion a year business.

So? just because DVD took off faster, it's no guaranty of BR's potential rise to replace it - the two trends could very well be mutually exclusive, especially if you consider that there was not real movie-downloading option back when DVDs took off. As I've said repeatedly, there are simply too many differences in the movie and related industries between then and now to make that comparison stick. What happened in the past is no guarantee of the future.

Did you also know that DVD sales were down in 2007 for the first time in the history of the format? And don't even try and tell us this is solely because of the strength of Blu-Ray sales, which accounted for a mere 3% of the total movie market. No, the reason it was down is because people are finding other ways to get their entertainment. And while download sales may have trailed behind BR sales, as you asserted elsewhere, total downloads could not possibly have. What else would make up the difference?

Our internet is not ready for mass downloading

Who's saying they have to be mass downloads? What we see now is a gradual, slow but steady growth. This assumption about the Internet is nonsense and shows how little you understand it. People are downloading more video now than they ever were. It may not be HD, and it may not just be movies, but they are downloading. The people experiencing the cultural shift I described above is also quite comfortable waiting for the movie to download. Take Tivo for example, people are perfectly comfortable letting that sucker churn 2-3 hours in the middle of the night to download their movies and shows. The reason is because people also become used to waiting to record the shows that will air later in the week. Waiting for video content is a fact of Internet and cable life that the public is just fine with.

Yes, it may be faster to run to the local blockbuster or best buy and pick up a disk, but then there's always the possibility it will be out, it will not in their chosen format, or it will be hard to find on the shelf. More importantly, instead of picking one or two movies or shows, the public can now select dozens at a time. Yes, they'll have to wait, but it's not like they can watch them at the same time anyhow. While they wait they can watch stuff they have already downloaded.

... and the studios are not going to support downloading over disc, they have already stated this.

Really, they've stated this? OK, my little insider imp, who stated this? How long ago did they say this? I seriously doubt they are singing that tune now.

The vote againist HD DVD by Warner is widely seen as a rejection of Microsoft vision of movie distribution.

Whoa there, little cavalier, slow down that pony, there. How exactly is the "vote againist HD-DVD" by Warner seen as a rejection of Microsoft's vision? Being as little as you are, I wonder how widely you can see that one. Despite Microsoft's encryption being shipped on every HD DVD disks, the company has been just as interested in pushing downloadable distribution. They wisely saw that HD-DVD was a way to get their product out into the market, now they can push it into the online distribution channel, too. And even if it was a rejection of Microsoft's vision (and I certainly don't hear any studios saying that publicly), that's still not a rejection of downloadable content. I haven't heard any studios complaining about Amazon or NetFlix. No the fact is the studios are very well aware that this is a new market they need to be part of, hence the reason they embrace it.

Bluray won this, and you need to face it. I told you it was going to happen, but you insisted that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price. It didn't help then, its not going to help now.

No, lil't, you're lying about what I said. I did not "insist that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price." Price would be a factor, I certainly agree with that, but that was not the only thing I said (go back and read the posts). I suggested in several threads that there were things that Toshiba, Microsoft and the HD-DVD studios could do to help the format. I proposed scenarios that could very well have altered BR's fortunes in this war. But I never said, emphatically and arrogantly like you have, that the outcome was certain. Don't say I did, because that is a bold-faced lie. I only suggested alternate endings to this war.

But more importantly I also suggested that both HD-DVD and BR would be marginalized by downloadable content. And that is precisely what I am suggesting is already happening now. So now, you want us to believe that because BR beat HD-DVD, it will do the same to downloadable content? Sorry, but I don't buy that. You're underestimating how much this format war has hurt BR and given downloadable content real teeth it might not have had without the format war.

Paramount is going neutral(it is going to happen for sure), and Universal will be the last to hold out(countering my earlier prediction because of new events)

Wouldn't it be another kick in the pants for you if they would hold on to the bitter end and start pushing downloadable content as a way to make us the loss in revenue? If they did, they would at least not alienate their loyal HD-DVD customers and be seen as the good guys in this sordid affair. I'm not saying that this will happen, but I would love to see you eat that crow.

And as far as Toshiba having, lost? I'm not there yet either. The HD-DVD players already have ethernet, so what if the next player they produce has a hard drive in it? Being a manufacturer of computers, that would certainly not be a stretch. They are at the forefront of laptop research, so what if this hard drive was solid state? Now you're talking 2-3 time the access speed of disk-based drives. Throw in a digital tuner and that next generation HD-DVD player becomes a really interesting piece of gear. All the technology has already been developped, it's just a matter of putting it together in one box. I'm not saying this is what they'll do, but just think of the potential. At $2-300 each, that's one hell of a product.

You have not been paying much attention to CES as of the last four years have. Downloading has been pushed every year in that period. Same interest generated, and still the public is not ready to buy it.

Same interest generated? Hardly. There's been a market increase this year. Anyhow, people are buying now. Let's pick this up in a year, when we have some real Tivo, Amazon, NetFlix, and iMove sales figures. I don't know what hardware sales were for this past holiday season, but I'm going to guess that they were pretty brisk. Tivo is riding the analog shut-off scare pretty hard in their sales pitch and is really the best option for the millions of homes with analog TVs - if the government rebate applies to their box, that will be a huge boost for them this year. Once it's in people's homes, it's just a few clicks of the remote to start downloading over the internet. As a matter of fact, it's by far the simplest and easiest interface I've seen to do this.

Oh, and yes, I actually have been paying very close attention to CES.

So you can just give your internet sales job a rest.

Well, not to burst your bubble, but in this down-economy of layoffs and retail downturns, my job and jobs like mine have been booming. I bet there aren't many other industries that are paying their employees bonuses this year, are there? I think my industry is benefiting tremendously from the convergence of video and the internet. Maybe your negative view of us is envy and jealousy due to the downturn in your little world?

Opinion pieces from a computer pundit is hardly a basis for fact. Especially since we are talking video, not computers.

Well as the Internet and video continue to converge like they have for the the past five years, we'll see who's right won't we, my little Luddite? Keep waiving that little feather for BR, if you must. And just so we're clear, I'm not saying BR is going to be blown away by downloads, I'm saying it will be marginalized as an option for movie ownership that will represent just a fraction of the movie market as the rest of it moves online. Yes, you can quote me on that.

You know, I stopped with the last thread because it was so full on falsehoods, FUD, and outright lies that I didn't want to burden everyone with your pointless pontifications about your supposed superiority. And if you're going to bring up that old nonsense about me being a liar, then maybe you should read what I wrote again. I have not lied on this board, so please give it a rest. But it just seems that no matter where you troll, you seem to piss off everyone with your condescending tone - as soon as you join in the discussion the whole thread turns to one tense and unpleasant quagmire. I've received dozens of private messages from people who think of you as a pompous bore, and while they try to tell you this as tactfully as possible in just about every post, you just don't seem to get it. If all you're going to do is turn every thread into a miserable debate about yourself, then just don't. I may not be that tactful, but I'll repeat what I said before, how many times do I have to flush before you go away?

[dean_martin]

Here's an article that ties in recession and gas prices to Warner's decision. However, the interesting thing is the note that Bluray may be the last physical medium for video as internet and technology companies "race" to build online distribution channels. Its coming whether the studios like it or not. And I'm still amazed that the studios have become so financially dependent on vhs, dvd, etc. sales. How did they survive during the days of Gone with the Wind, The Wizard of Oz, Casablanca, etc.?

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759...069TX1K0001121

[Groundbeef]

Here's an article that ties in recession and gas prices to Warner's decision. However, the interesting thing is the note that Bluray may be the last physical medium for video as internet and technology companies "race" to build online distribution channels. Its coming whether the studios like it or not. And I'm still amazed that the studios have become so financially dependent on vhs, dvd, etc. sales. How did they survive during the days of Gone with the Wind, The Wizard of Oz, Casablanca, etc.?

]

It was a totally different market. If you wanted to see a movie, you went to the MOVIE THEATER. There was not a choice. No TV, no VHS, no DVD.

Studios also only released a few films versus the volume today. Most movie houses only showed a film or 2 at a time. Multiplexes were not even a thought.

[blackraven]

I'm sorry, but I may be nieve in saying this. But I don't think the majority of the public is going to want to down load a movie onto a hard drive from the net and then plug it into a TV when you can go to blockbuster and rent a DVD and put it in a cheap DVD player. Most of the public doesnt have high end equipment. Just look at the junk that walmart, target and Kmart sell. And many households have 2-4 TV's and more than 1 DVDP so you can play the DVD in any room. And many people I know have obsolete computers that are just used for school work or browsing the web. Thats why the computer game industry is dying slowly because there are not enough people who have high end computers such as myself that can play the latest games on the highest graphics settings. Thats where PS3 and Xbox come ino play.
And what about people that like to buy movies and have hundreds of moives in their collection. Are they going to have to buy multiple expensive terrabyte hard drives when they can just buy a DVD, I dont think so. Of course, I could be all wrong!

[pixelthis]

I'm sorry, but I may be nieve in saying this. But I don't think the majority of the public is going to want to down load a movie onto a hard drive from the net and then plug it into a TV when you can go to blockbuster and rent a DVD and put it in a cheap DVD player. Most of the public doesnt have high end equipment. Just look at the junk that walmart, target and Kmart sell. And many households have 2-4 TV's and more than 1 DVDP so you can play the DVD in any room. And many people I know have obsolete computers that are just used for school work or browsing the web. Thats why the computer game industry is dying slowly because there are not enough people who have high end computers such as myself that can play the latest games on the highest graphics settings. Thats where PS3 and Xbox come ino play.
And what about people that like to buy movies and have hundreds of moives in their collection. Are they going to have to buy multiple expensive terrabyte hard drives when they can just buy a DVD, I dont think so. Of course, I could be all wrong!

You are.
All thats required for vod on my cable system is a DVR , and something to watch it on.
Its easier to use than a DVD player, and you need it anyway to watch just about anything.
THE CES is all abuzz about downloading movies, Apple has plans for Itunes to offer movies.
The quality is quite good, even if it doesnt match sir t 's cavier wishes and champaing
dreams.
As a matter of fact quite a few companies have gone broke trying to sell quality to the american people, been there, seen that.
I am the only person I know that had a super vhs, or a laserdisc.
My first set was a 20in XbR (the 26 was 1200 bucks) and most thought I was crazy for paying 800 bucks for a "small" tv(about 2400 in todays dollars).
Anybody with Comcasts ondemand service should check it out, its quite good really.
As for taking a hard drive over to watch movies on, well I have a 320 gig usb drive,
more and more sets have USB, and sharing tunes is already commonplace.
And a hard drive might not be reconizable, what do you think an Ipod is?
Or a zune?
The last two optical formats are from an age when the only way to store large amounts
of data were with optical drives, BUT THAT IS QUICKLY BEING SUPPLANTED
by a universe of high speed data over the web, and hard drive and solid state storage
that holds massive amounts of data.
On my first computer upgrading my 4 mgs of ram cost 165 bucks for another 4 mgs.
The HD was 265 mb , and a friend cussed me because I HAD ONE SO BIG.
Compare that to today.
the transformation of mass media to data is slow coming, but it is coming.
If HD or BLU hope to become a "mass" format they need to quit this silly format war
(its not over yet) and concentrate on getting established.
Do you really need a collection when you can crank up a computer and see any movie ever made? THINK ABOUT IT

[L.J.]

You are.
All thats required for vod on my cable system is a DVR , and something to watch it on.
Its easier to use than a DVD player, and you need it anyway to watch just about anything.
THE CES is all abuzz about downloading movies, Apple has plans for Itunes to offer movies.
The quality is quite good, even if it doesnt match sir t 's cavier wishes and champaing
dreams.
As a matter of fact quite a few companies have gone broke trying to sell quality to the american people, been there, seen that.
I am the only person I know that had a super vhs, or a laserdisc.
My first set was a 20in XbR (the 26 was 1200 bucks) and most thought I was crazy for paying 800 bucks for a "small" tv(about 2400 in todays dollars).
Anybody with Comcasts ondemand service should check it out, its quite good really.
As for taking a hard drive over to watch movies on, well I have a 320 gig usb drive,
more and more sets have USB, and sharing tunes is already commonplace.
And a hard drive might not be reconizable, what do you think an Ipod is?
Or a zune?
The last two optical formats are from an age when the only way to store large amounts
of data were with optical drives, BUT THAT IS QUICKLY BEING SUPPLANTED
by a universe of high speed data over the web, and hard drive and solid state storage
that holds massive amounts of data.
On my first computer upgrading my 4 mgs of ram cost 165 bucks for another 4 mgs.
The HD was 265 mb , and a friend cussed me because I HAD ONE SO BIG.
Compare that to today.
the transformation of mass media to data is slow coming, but it is coming.
If HD or BLU hope to become a "mass" format they need to quit this silly format war
(its not over yet) and concentrate on getting established.
Do you really need a collection when you can crank up a computer and see any movie ever made? THINK ABOUT IT

...................

[Rich-n-Texas]

Cable TV blows man!