Toshiba fights back......well kind of

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Speaking of HD-DVD's demize, I wouldn't call this a BR victory, either. Yes, I know I was one who posted multiple scenarios that I figured would have changed the outcome, but it does look now like HD-DVD is going to die a slow painful death. Over at CES, the booths and presentations were overwhelmingly in favor of BR. But the other thing that was apparent was that downloadable content is on every manufacturer's agenda now. The fact is the format war lasted so long that it damaged both sides and gave downloaded content a real chance. Here's an article that came out this morning (apologies for the #$%@# ads):

http://www.computerworld.com/action/...8&pageNumber=1

There is one thing you just do not get, the American public is not ready for downloads to replace disc. The only thing downloads will effect is renting, and that is basically it. As far as I can see nobody is ready to trust their movie collection on a hard drive that can be corrupted and hacked, potentially ruining their library.

VOD, PPV has been around for ten years in my neighborhood. In ten years it has blossomed into a $200 million dollar a year business(downloads and VOD combined). In that same period of time the DVD was introduced, and has grown to a $42 billion a year business. Our internet is not ready for mass downloading and the studios are not going to support downloading over disc, they have already stated this. The vote againist HD DVD by Warner is widely seen as a rejection of Microsoft vision of movie distribution.

Bluray won this, and you need to face it. I told you it was going to happen, but you insisted that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price. It didn't help then, its not going to help now. Paramount is going neutral(it is going to happen for sure), and Universal will be the last to hold out(countering my earlier prediction because of new events)

I know that's not what everyone who bought an HD player wants to hear, but I think the widespread interest in downloadable content at CES is pretty damning for HD-DVD as well as BR.

You have not been paying much attention to CES as of the last four years have. Downloading has been pushed every year in that period. Same interest generated, and still the public is not ready to buy it. So you can just give your internet sales job a rest. You have already been wrong once, so there is no reason to believe your predictions are any more accurate this time. Opinion pieces from a computer pundit is hardly a basis for fact. Especially since we are talking video, not computers. The guy doesn't even have his sales figures correct. And this is a basis of your point???

[nightflier]

There is one thing you just do not get, the American public is not ready for downloads to replace disc. ...As far as I can see nobody is ready to trust their movie collection on a hard drive that can be corrupted and hacked, potentially ruining their library.

So you speak for the whole American public? LOL. It's absolute nonsense, and you know it. If the American public is willing to trust their whole music collection to disk, then there's no reason to believe they won't trust their movie collections to the same medium. I think the success of iTunes is a perfect example of how wrong your expectations are. You're wrong, and while I can't demonstrate it now, it will become apparent as downloading technology and marketshare increases. Come back here in a year and we'll see how silly your understanding of the American public is.

The only thing downloads will effect is renting, and that is basically it.

With regard to renting, you're attempting to dismiss the importance of it by slyly wedging it into the topic of downloading & owning - entirely unrelated. Yes, I had to cut and paste that sentence out separately from your quote, because as usual you're trying to confuse the argument. Renting is a huge part of this equation. What you don't seem to understand is that downloading is a cultural shift for people. The more they do it, either through Netflix, Amazon, iMovie, or Tivo, it creates an expectation that this is how movies, and even TV shows, are seen.

Netflix, and later Blockbuster revolutionized the renting industry by fundamentally changing two very important facets of renting: staying at home and vastly increasing choice. If you can understand nothing else, you can't possibly tell me that you can't see that downloading expands those conveniences further - not only is the choice expanded exponentially because from one screen the user has far more vendors to choose from, but the technology has advanced to allow the convenience of doing it all from their TV screens, not their slow-to-start and buggy computer in another room.

Now I know that flies in the face of our very real desire to physically touch & own the disks, but the cultural shift is much farther along than you are willing to admit. Yes, there is a psychological shift that has been under way for years. And as an owner of a huge record, CD, and DVD collection, I'll be the first to lament this trend, but I'm smart enough to see the writing on the wall, too. Yes, it's lower quality in a download, but the convenience far outweighs that shortcoming (more on that below).

VOD, PPV has been around for ten years in my neighborhood. In ten years it has blossomed into a $200 million dollar a year business (downloads and VOD combined). In that same period of time the DVD was introduced, and has grown to a $42 billion a year business.

So? just because DVD took off faster, it's no guaranty of BR's potential rise to replace it - the two trends could very well be mutually exclusive, especially if you consider that there was not real movie-downloading option back when DVDs took off. As I've said repeatedly, there are simply too many differences in the movie and related industries between then and now to make that comparison stick. What happened in the past is no guarantee of the future.

Did you also know that DVD sales were down in 2007 for the first time in the history of the format? And don't even try and tell us this is solely because of the strength of Blu-Ray sales, which accounted for a mere 3% of the total movie market. No, the reason it was down is because people are finding other ways to get their entertainment. And while download sales may have trailed behind BR sales, as you asserted elsewhere, total downloads could not possibly have. What else would make up the difference?

Our internet is not ready for mass downloading

Who's saying they have to be mass downloads? What we see now is a gradual, slow but steady growth. This assumption about the Internet is nonsense and shows how little you understand it. People are downloading more video now than they ever were. It may not be HD, and it may not just be movies, but they are downloading. The people experiencing the cultural shift I described above is also quite comfortable waiting for the movie to download. Take Tivo for example, people are perfectly comfortable letting that sucker churn 2-3 hours in the middle of the night to download their movies and shows. The reason is because people also become used to waiting to record the shows that will air later in the week. Waiting for video content is a fact of Internet and cable life that the public is just fine with.

Yes, it may be faster to run to the local blockbuster or best buy and pick up a disk, but then there's always the possibility it will be out, it will not in their chosen format, or it will be hard to find on the shelf. More importantly, instead of picking one or two movies or shows, the public can now select dozens at a time. Yes, they'll have to wait, but it's not like they can watch them at the same time anyhow. While they wait they can watch stuff they have already downloaded.

... and the studios are not going to support downloading over disc, they have already stated this.

Really, they've stated this? OK, my little insider imp, who stated this? How long ago did they say this? I seriously doubt they are singing that tune now.

The vote againist HD DVD by Warner is widely seen as a rejection of Microsoft vision of movie distribution.

Whoa there, little cavalier, slow down that pony, there. How exactly is the "vote againist HD-DVD" by Warner seen as a rejection of Microsoft's vision? Being as little as you are, I wonder how widely you can see that one. Despite Microsoft's encryption being shipped on every HD DVD disks, the company has been just as interested in pushing downloadable distribution. They wisely saw that HD-DVD was a way to get their product out into the market, now they can push it into the online distribution channel, too. And even if it was a rejection of Microsoft's vision (and I certainly don't hear any studios saying that publicly), that's still not a rejection of downloadable content. I haven't heard any studios complaining about Amazon or NetFlix. No the fact is the studios are very well aware that this is a new market they need to be part of, hence the reason they embrace it.

Bluray won this, and you need to face it. I told you it was going to happen, but you insisted that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price. It didn't help then, its not going to help now.

No, lil't, you're lying about what I said. I did not "insist that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price." Price would be a factor, I certainly agree with that, but that was not the only thing I said (go back and read the posts). I suggested in several threads that there were things that Toshiba, Microsoft and the HD-DVD studios could do to help the format. I proposed scenarios that could very well have altered BR's fortunes in this war. But I never said, emphatically and arrogantly like you have, that the outcome was certain. Don't say I did, because that is a bold-faced lie. I only suggested alternate endings to this war.

But more importantly I also suggested that both HD-DVD and BR would be marginalized by downloadable content. And that is precisely what I am suggesting is already happening now. So now, you want us to believe that because BR beat HD-DVD, it will do the same to downloadable content? Sorry, but I don't buy that. You're underestimating how much this format war has hurt BR and given downloadable content real teeth it might not have had without the format war.

Paramount is going neutral(it is going to happen for sure), and Universal will be the last to hold out(countering my earlier prediction because of new events)

Wouldn't it be another kick in the pants for you if they would hold on to the bitter end and start pushing downloadable content as a way to make us the loss in revenue? If they did, they would at least not alienate their loyal HD-DVD customers and be seen as the good guys in this sordid affair. I'm not saying that this will happen, but I would love to see you eat that crow.

And as far as Toshiba having, lost? I'm not there yet either. The HD-DVD players already have ethernet, so what if the next player they produce has a hard drive in it? Being a manufacturer of computers, that would certainly not be a stretch. They are at the forefront of laptop research, so what if this hard drive was solid state? Now you're talking 2-3 time the access speed of disk-based drives. Throw in a digital tuner and that next generation HD-DVD player becomes a really interesting piece of gear. All the technology has already been developped, it's just a matter of putting it together in one box. I'm not saying this is what they'll do, but just think of the potential. At $2-300 each, that's one hell of a product.

You have not been paying much attention to CES as of the last four years have. Downloading has been pushed every year in that period. Same interest generated, and still the public is not ready to buy it.

Same interest generated? Hardly. There's been a market increase this year. Anyhow, people are buying now. Let's pick this up in a year, when we have some real Tivo, Amazon, NetFlix, and iMove sales figures. I don't know what hardware sales were for this past holiday season, but I'm going to guess that they were pretty brisk. Tivo is riding the analog shut-off scare pretty hard in their sales pitch and is really the best option for the millions of homes with analog TVs - if the government rebate applies to their box, that will be a huge boost for them this year. Once it's in people's homes, it's just a few clicks of the remote to start downloading over the internet. As a matter of fact, it's by far the simplest and easiest interface I've seen to do this.

Oh, and yes, I actually have been paying very close attention to CES.

So you can just give your internet sales job a rest.

Well, not to burst your bubble, but in this down-economy of layoffs and retail downturns, my job and jobs like mine have been booming. I bet there aren't many other industries that are paying their employees bonuses this year, are there? I think my industry is benefiting tremendously from the convergence of video and the internet. Maybe your negative view of us is envy and jealousy due to the downturn in your little world?

Opinion pieces from a computer pundit is hardly a basis for fact. Especially since we are talking video, not computers.

Well as the Internet and video continue to converge like they have for the the past five years, we'll see who's right won't we, my little Luddite? Keep waiving that little feather for BR, if you must. And just so we're clear, I'm not saying BR is going to be blown away by downloads, I'm saying it will be marginalized as an option for movie ownership that will represent just a fraction of the movie market as the rest of it moves online. Yes, you can quote me on that.

You know, I stopped with the last thread because it was so full on falsehoods, FUD, and outright lies that I didn't want to burden everyone with your pointless pontifications about your supposed superiority. And if you're going to bring up that old nonsense about me being a liar, then maybe you should read what I wrote again. I have not lied on this board, so please give it a rest. But it just seems that no matter where you troll, you seem to piss off everyone with your condescending tone - as soon as you join in the discussion the whole thread turns to one tense and unpleasant quagmire. I've received dozens of private messages from people who think of you as a pompous bore, and while they try to tell you this as tactfully as possible in just about every post, you just don't seem to get it. If all you're going to do is turn every thread into a miserable debate about yourself, then just don't. I may not be that tactful, but I'll repeat what I said before, how many times do I have to flush before you go away?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

So you speak for the whole American public? LOL. It's absolute nonsense, and you know it. If the American public is willing to trust their whole music collection to disk, then there's no reason to believe they won't trust their movie collections to the same medium. I think the success of iTunes is a perfect example of how wrong your expectations are. You're wrong, and while I can't demonstrate it now, it will become apparent as downloading technology and marketshare increases. Come back here in a year and we'll see how silly your understanding of the American public is.

Glad your back, I was bored. The American public speaks with their dollars. Music is different than movies. What works for music does not work for movies. Walmart, Google, and movie gallery have all shut down in 2007. Revenue is flat, and the studios are focusing on growing HDM on disc not movie downloads. Can you explain how Bluray/HD DVD even during a war has grown larger than VOD and downloading put together in terms of revuenue? That is because people want the disc, not a DRM infested low quality download. I do not have to speak for the American public, they speak through their money, and it ain't headed towards downloading whether we are speaking of VOD or XBOX live. How wrong was I about bluray? It turns out not one of your scenarios played out, and yet you are still calling me wrong. You said wait till next year about HD DVD and bluray. It didn't even take that long to play out, just like I stated.

With regard to renting, you're attempting to dismiss the importance of it by slyly wedging it into the topic of downloading & owning - entirely unrelated. Yes, I had to cut and paste that sentence out separately from your quote, because as usual you're trying to confuse the argument. Renting is a huge part of this equation. What you don't seem to understand is that downloading is a cultural shift for people. The more they do it, either through Netflix, Amazon, iMovie, or Tivo, it creates an expectation that this is how movies, and even TV shows, are seen.

Renting has not been a huge part of the equation since the studio shifted to a sell through market years ago. Every since they have gone to sell through, rental incomes means less and less to the studios bottom line, and sales of disc are basically funding film projects.

Amazon sells FAR more disc than downloads, FAR MORE.
Netflix rents more disc than downloads as well
There are way more titles on disc than Imovie.

What you don't seem to get is downloading movies is not a growing market, is not economically feasible at this time, and not where analyst see the consumers spending their money. Analyst who follow the movie industry(as opposed to someone who does not seem to know anything about it, and couldn't get his last prediction right) believe that Bluray will be where the consumer puts their money now that the war is pretty much settled. The trend is already there(as evidenced by the fact that bluray alone is already a larger market than both VOD and downloading combined), and whatever cultural shift you predict will happen has not even learned to walk yet.

Netflix, and later Blockbuster revolutionized the renting industry by fundamentally changing two very important facets of renting: staying at home and vastly increasing choice. If you can understand nothing else, you can't possibly tell me that you can't see that downloading expands those conveniences further - not only is the choice expanded exponentially because from one screen the user has far more vendors to choose from, but the technology has advanced to allow the convenience of doing it all from their TV screens, not their slow-to-start and buggy computer in another room.

You are talking about a market that has lost its influence a long time ago. Renting is not what the studio are emphasizing. They are working on growning the largest revenue source for them. It isn't renting, it isn't VOD and it isn't downloading, its HD on disc sale through. VOD and downloading isn't even on the radar with them. Why hasn't VOD taken off? You cannot own it, it has term limits, you have to pay everytime you want to see it, and you cannot burn it to disc unless its nothing more than a TV program. Both VOD and downloading are stagnant while disc sales are growing like crazy. VOD nor downloading have even scratch DVD sales, and with flat revenue, its doesn't look like its touching bluray either. People who collect movies will not go to downloads, that is the bottom line. Evidence is everywhere that proves this. It isn't even apparent that the rental market has been negatively impacted as Blockbuster and Netflicks still send far more disc out than downloads that have occured.

Now I know that flies in the face of our very real desire to physically touch & own the disks, but the cultural shift is much farther along than you are willing to admit. Yes, there is a psychological shift that has been under way for years. And as an owner of a huge record, CD, and DVD collection, I'll be the first to lament this trend, but I'm smart enough to see the writing on the wall, too. Yes, it's lower quality in a download, but the convenience far outweighs that shortcoming (more on that below).

I know this is difficult for you to understand, but early technology adopters push cultural shifts, and their support trickles down to everyone else. It happen with the VCR, Laserdisc, DVD, and now HD DVD and Bluray. With the exception of Laserdisc, all of these formats grew to be huge revenue sources for both manufacturers and the Studios themselves. Neither VOD nor downloading has taken off(its been a decade now) because largely these early adopters are not interested in the product. Neither VOD or downloading is growing, so how is it farther along than I am willing to admit. I can see the numbers very clearly, and they have pointed to stagnation for the last three years.

So? just because DVD took off faster, it's no guaranty of BR's potential rise to replace it - the two trends could very well be mutually exclusive, especially if you consider that there was not real movie-downloading option back when DVDs took off. As I've said repeatedly, there are simply too many differences in the movie and related industries between then and now to make that comparison stick. What happened in the past is no guarantee of the future.

This shows how much you know. BR is already farther along than DVD was at this time period. And once again you are incorrect. PPV came to the bay area in 1997, the same year that the DVD was introduced. It was heavily advertised and very visible. People didn't take to it then. In terms of the comparison, you are wrong. Wooch and I have pointed out that every gauge to measure growth that was there is here now. You have so little knowledge of the movie industry(which is so apparent in our last discussion) you do not even know how to evaluated anything that is related to it. Your assertion in our last discussion didn't even come close to playing out, not even close or in the ballpark of close. What you are attempting to do(AGAIN) is to cloud a clear issue with bull. You are bringing too many unrelated things into a clear arguement. Player sales have nothing to do with internet downloads. Disc sales have nothing to do with internet downloading. Apples to apples mean directly comparing DVD players sales at two years, with Bluray/HD DVD players sales at two years. There is no need to evaluate anything but these two comparisons. You do not bring the internet in this equation at all unless all you are trying to do is derail clarity. Camparing apples against apples shows that HD on disc is growning faster than the DVD did at two years both in player sales, and disc purchased. It is just that clear.

Did you also know that DVD sales were down in 2007 for the first time in the history of the format? And don't even try and tell us this is solely because of the strength of Blu-Ray sales, which accounted for a mere 3% of the total movie market. No, the reason it was down is because people are finding other ways to get their entertainment. And while download sales may have trailed behind BR sales, as you asserted elsewhere, total downloads could not possibly have. What else would make up the difference?

I was the one that told you that DVD sales were down. And you attempts to tie downloading into that equation is not possible because downloading in terms of revenue is stagnant. If you read Warner reasons for going bluray exclusive, one of those reason was people were not buying DVD's because many see it as a format that has matured, and the format war was making everyone wait things out. In other words, they are waiting to see who will win to begin purchasing again. There is absolutely no indication that folks were looking elsewhere for their entertainment as you assert(and with of course no support for your assertion as usual). With revenues stagnant, they are not looking to downloads, and that is apparent. If downloading WAS the reason, you would see a correlation between the DVD decline, and a rise in income from movie downloads going to the studios. It ain't happen bro.

Who's saying they have to be mass downloads? What we see now is a gradual, slow but steady growth.

There is no growth. At least no growth in revenue for the content providers. If you are speaking of free television programs, video off youtube and google, and other free services, you cannot compare that with DVD which is mainly a movie driven medium. Movies are not free. They cost on VOD, and through downloading services like Imovie and XBOX live. Free content is always free whether it is downloaded via Live, or through VOD. You cannot compare that with DVD because there is nothing free on a DVD.

This assumption about the Internet is nonsense and shows how little you understand it. People are downloading more video now than they ever were. It may not be HD, and it may not just be movies, but they are downloading.

So? If it is not movies, then how do you think just downloading low quality video from youtube is going to effect a movie driven format like DVD and Bluray? Those two are about movies first, and television programs second. Snippets of video cannot compare with that.

The people experiencing the cultural shift I described above is also quite comfortable waiting for the movie to download. Take Tivo for example, people are perfectly comfortable letting that sucker churn 2-3 hours in the middle of the night to download their movies and shows. The reason is because people also become used to waiting to record the shows that will air later in the week. Waiting for video content is a fact of Internet and cable life that the public is just fine with.

These people do not buy movies. They rent. Different market, different consumer, and different expectation of quality. You may be comfortable with this, but I do not know anyone who has chosen to wait 2-3 hours for something they can pop in a player and get in 30 seconds. Especially if they go through netflix to get the disc.

Yes, it may be faster to run to the local blockbuster or best buy and pick up a disk, but then there's always the possibility it will be out, it will not in their chosen format, or it will be hard to find on the shelf. More importantly, instead of picking one or two movies or shows, the public can now select dozens at a time. Yes, they'll have to wait, but it's not like they can watch them at the same time anyhow. While they wait they can watch stuff they have already downloaded.

There is also the possibility that the studio don't even offer the movie on VOD or for downloading. That is a much larger chance than not finding it at their retailer. Question to you, have you ever heard of a title being offered for download day and date with the DVD? Not a chance, there is always a window for sale through FIRST, and rental and downloading second.

What if that dozen you choose won't all fit you your hard drive? Then you have to give up something you already saved and want to keep to accomodate new things. That does not happen with disc media.

Really, they've stated this? OK, my little insider imp, who stated this? How long ago did they say this? I seriously doubt they are singing that tune now.

So you are already start the name calling. Okay stupid little uninformed wanna be no nothing, it was stated at CES(which is why Warner made the switch to end the stalemate). It was stated at IFA 2007, and only a stupid little azz like you would trade a $42 billion dollar market for a $200 million dollar one. That is why they run studios, and you get on the internet and make some of the stupidest claims I have ever read. If any studio thought digital distribution was ready for prime time, they would have jumped all over it. The market is too small(its smaller than Bluray), nobody amoung the studios believes its time to abandon disc for download. Did it ever occur to your pee brain that is why you can get more titles on disc than you can get on VOD and downloading? You think to small, and perhaps that is because of your reduced brain size.

Whoa there, little cavalier, slow down that pony, there. How exactly is the "vote againist HD-DVD" by Warner seen as a rejection of Microsoft's vision? Being as little as you are, I wonder how widely you can see that one. Despite Microsoft's encryption being shipped on every HD DVD disks, the company has been just as interested in pushing downloadable distribution. They wisely saw that HD-DVD was a way to get their product out into the market, now they can push it into the online distribution channel, too. And even if it was a rejection of Microsoft's vision (and I certainly don't hear any studios saying that publicly), that's still not a rejection of downloadable content. I haven't heard any studios complaining about Amazon or NetFlix. No the fact is the studios are very well aware that this is a new market they need to be part of, hence the reason they embrace it.

Microsoft vision is to ditch the disc altogether and move to downloads using microsoft windows, XBOX live, and any device with Microsoft software running it. HDi, and VC-1 are both a part of that world. All HD DVD players and disc use HDi, and 98% of HD DVD movies are encoded with VC-1. Since the Bluray studios primarily use MPEG-2 or AVC, you now have 40% percent of movies that will not be using VC-1(and yes I heard that Warner will be releasing using AVC since they no longer have to port over titles to HD DVD). Paramount is currently in negotiations with the BDA, and word has it they are moving over to bluray as well. That means another studio NOT using HDi and VC-1. Universal will be the last to move(which they certainly will make before christmas season) and that will mean another studio not using VC-1. Everyone knows that Microsoft got behind HD DVD because A) they choose HDi and VC-1, and B) they wanted to split the market and keep the consumer as confused as possible so they would adopt neither format and move to downloads. The digitalbits and DVDfile have both reported this openly. By Warner choosing to move exclusive to one side(thereby giving that side 85% of the sales, and 70% of the titles) now bluray can move forward with their plan to replace the DVD, therby throwing a wrench in Microsofts confusion plans. Microsoft lost because now manufacturers have the confidence to manufacture bluray players(10 new manufacturers announced players at CES), computer manufacturers are not confident in putting bluray drives in their computers(all of the HD DVD drive makers other than Toshiba have switched their support), and there will be hardly any disc encoded with either HDi or VC-1, which means no revenue stream from royalites. If you understood the film industry half as much as you fake, even your pee size brain could logically think this through.

No, lil't, you're lying about what I said. I did not "insist that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price." Price would be a factor, I certainly agree with that, but that was not the only thing I said (go back and read the posts). I suggested in several threads that there were things that Toshiba, Microsoft and the HD-DVD studios could do to help the format. I proposed scenarios that could very well have altered BR's fortunes in this war. But I never said, emphatically and arrogantly like you have, that the outcome was certain. Don't say I did, because that is a bold-faced lie. I only suggested alternate endings to this war.

Well price was not a factor, and the things you suggested that could help HD DVD were ludicrous because your knowledge of the industry is nil. Did you forget your little gem about the ship going down in the ocean full of bluray players increasing prices like porkbellies? I didn't say the outcome was certain, but I did state how it was going to play out, and so far, I was right. It doesn't really matter, all of your assertions on the subject were dead wrong, and the momentum is all bluray just like I said it would be.

But more importantly I also suggested that both HD-DVD and BR would be marginalized by downloadable content. And that is precisely what I am suggesting is already happening now. So now, you want us to believe that because BR beat HD-DVD, it will do the same to downloadable content? Sorry, but I don't buy that. You're underestimating how much this format war has hurt BR and given downloadable content real teeth it might not have had without the format war.

Your track record on suggestions is not something I would take to the bank. If downloads were going to marginalize Bluray(we cannot even bring HD DVD into the equation) we would have already seen the erosion of DVD sales, and the increase in VOD and downloads of movies. We have not seen the latter, and the former is firmly traceable to the format war. People who buy disc are not interested in downloads of a lesser quality. The studio are already set to release more titles on disc than they are going to release to VOD, XBOXlive and Amazon. Every bluray exclusive studio as stated they are committed to growing the HD disc market, no such promise was made towards downloads. If you ran a studio, what would you pay attention to, your $42 billion market, or your $200 million dollar one? You would probably choose the latter, which is why you don't run a studio.

Wouldn't it be another kick in the pants for you if they would hold on to the bitter end and start pushing downloadable content as a way to make us the loss in revenue? If they did, they would at least not alienate their loyal HD-DVD customers and be seen as the good guys in this sordid affair. I'm not saying that this will happen, but I would love to see you eat that crow.

You cannot make up a loss in revenue from a stagnant source. Well maybe in your convoluted world you can, but not in the real world. This is more of your stupid logic. How does a studio exclusive to HD DVD come out the good guys pushing downloads over disc based material when the HD DVD player does not store downloads but plays disc. How stupid is this??? That studio would be tarred and feathered if that happened.

Crow is not my speed, but after you last scenarios didn't even come close to playing out, you must be full of the stuff.

And as far as Toshiba having, lost? I'm not there yet either. The HD-DVD players already have ethernet, so what if the next player they produce has a hard drive in it?

Because doing so would add cost to the players, alot more cost and complexity. With that extra cost comes a loss of a talking point. Our players are cheaper than bluray players. With the loss of studio and manufacturing support, HD DVD has nothing left. And really, the best selling HD DVD players are the A2 and A3. The XA-2 has not sold that well, and the A-35 is not doing that well either. So there is no demand for a higher priced players than we currently see now. Your suggestion is plain stupid.

Being a manufacturer of computers, that would certainly not be a stretch. They are at the forefront of laptop research, so what if this hard drive was solid state? Now you're talking 2-3 time the access speed of disk-based drives. Throw in a digital tuner and that next generation HD-DVD player becomes a really interesting piece of gear. All the technology has already been developped, it's just a matter of putting it together in one box. I'm not saying this is what they'll do, but just think of the potential. At $2-300 each, that's one hell of a product.

More stupidity. Why sell a HD DVD player with no movies to support it? It is apparent that studio have already chosen bluray, and you have already lost $420 million dollars and counting. It would be more than stupid of them(but on par with you) for them to lose more money on something that already failed. A digital tuner, and compete with DVR's which would be cheaper? More stupidity. HD DVD is cooked, and only you would be retarded enough to try and revive something that took its last breath two weeks ago,

Same interest generated? Hardly. There's been a market increase this year. Anyhow, people are buying now. Let's pick this up in a year, when we have some real Tivo, Amazon, NetFlix, and iMove sales figures. I don't know what hardware sales were for this past holiday season, but I'm going to guess that they were pretty brisk. Tivo is riding the analog shut-off scare pretty hard in their sales pitch and is really the best option for the millions of homes with analog TVs - if the government rebate applies to their box, that will be a huge boost for them this year. Once it's in people's homes, it's just a few clicks of the remote to start downloading over the internet. As a matter of fact, it's by far the simplest and easiest interface I've seen to do this.

Oh, and yes, I actually have been paying very close attention to CES.

Yeah right, because if you had, you would have clearly known they have been pushing the same stuff for years, repackaged and with a new message every year. None of it took off. This year you have several companies pushing it, with no business plan, no studio support, and no hardware to be seen. Oooooo big time push.

You are becoming the next year kid. Everything is just wait till next year, wait till next year. What do you think things just appear out of nowhere?. Things have to trend up, and with downloading of movies it is not. We are talking movies here, not music or anything else. According to NDP, movie downloading in terms of revenue is flat, and there is no trend upwards, and nothing to suggest so either. Even with all of those XBOX360 sold, XBOX live is flat as a pancake. In spite of the fact that cable companies are selling tons of HD packages(mostly for sports) VOD is flat as a floor. All analyst that follow the MOVIE industry say that the growth area within that industry is with disc sales of HD movies. They that they'll be strong growth from 2008-2011 at the least, and perhaps beyond.

Well, not to burst your bubble, but in this down-economy of layoffs and retail downturns, my job and jobs like mine have been booming. I bet there aren't many other industries that are paying their employees bonuses this year, are there? I think my industry is benefiting tremendously from the convergence of video and the internet. Maybe your negative view of us is envy and jealousy due to the downturn in your little world?

So you really are going to advance this as an arguement? I got a rather large bonus this year, and so did many of the folks that I work with in this business. That does not mean anything. There is nothing about your pityful azz that would make me jealous. I have stated too many times in many posts, I do not care about you, your job, your mom or dad, or your third cousin on your mother side twice removed. I feel sorry for you, because you embarrased yourself time after time for 10 pages in another area on this very topic, and you were wrong as two left shoes on a one right foot man. My world has survive far more economic downturns than yours have. The movie making business did very well during the great depression, one of the few industries that did. The down turn was self inflicted, and has been remedied in one fail swoop. Thanks Warner.

Well as the Internet and video continue to converge like they have for the the past five years, we'll see who's right won't we, my little Luddite? Keep waiving that little feather for BR, if you must. And just so we're clear, I'm not saying BR is going to be blown away by downloads, I'm saying it will be marginalized as an option for movie ownership that will represent just a fraction of the movie market as the rest of it moves online. Yes, you can quote me on that.

Yes, I will put that quote right next to the ship going down quote. Or the earthquake in japan quote also followed by the blurays are like porkbellies quote. This quote will be in good company.

You know, I stopped with the last thread because it was so full on falsehoods, FUD, and outright lies that I didn't want to burden everyone with your pointless pontifications about your supposed superiority. And if you're going to bring up that old nonsense about me being a liar, then maybe you should read what I wrote again. I have not lied on this board, so please give it a rest. But it just seems that no matter where you troll, you seem to piss off everyone with your condescending tone - as soon as you join in the discussion the whole thread turns to one tense and unpleasant quagmire. I've received dozens of private messages from people who think of you as a pompous bore, and while they try to tell you this as tactfully as possible in just about every post, you just don't seem to get it. If all you're going to do is turn every thread into a miserable debate about yourself, then just don't. I may not be that tactful, but I'll repeat what I said before, how many times do I have to flush before you go away?

You lied, and I pointed it out. You lied, and now you are in denial about the lies you told. How about the lie that my video processor/switcher was a mass market product. You didn't lie about that? I do not know ANY product that costs close to $10k that can be labeled as mass market. And how does it become mass market when it has never been released to the market? Or how about the story about the friend at said high end audio company, which turned into the person who works for customer service(who never know shyte about future products released) to another source higher source within the company Which is it? I bet you cannot figure that one out today. That had more lies in it than brownies have nuts. Or what about the DVD player that has the option of playing either DSD native, or PCM, even though the player cannot pass DSD nor process it? What about I use room treatments to make up for channel imbalances? Either this is a lie to hide something else, or stupidity so profound that it scares the color out of your face.

Now if you want to take this issue to 10 pages, and look as stupid as you did before, we have a two page head start.

[nightflier]

Apparently, long posts are not to everyone's liking. That's unfortunate, because there is so much nonsense in your thinking that needs to be addressed. I can't make any promises, but I'll really try my hardest to keep this as short as possible (my apologies to everyone else, but lil't needs special handling).

Glad your back, I was bored. The American public speaks with their dollars. Music is different than movies. What works for music does not work for movies. Walmart, Google, and movie gallery have all shut down in 2007. Revenue is flat, and the studios are focusing on growing HDM on disc not movie downloads. Can you explain how Bluray/HD DVD even during a war has grown larger than VOD and downloading put together in terms of revuenue? That is because people want the disc, not a DRM infested low quality download. I do not have to speak for the American public, they speak through their money, and it ain't headed towards downloading whether we are speaking of VOD or XBOX live. How wrong was I about bluray? It turns out not one of your scenarios played out, and yet you are still calling me wrong. You said wait till next year about HD DVD and bluray. It didn't even take that long to play out, just like I stated.

What works for music (and photography, apparently) is also going to work for movies. Revenue has been flat, but that is not what it will be this year. You want trends, well I'll start by what was said at CES, and I'm not just talking about the sales pitches, I'm also talking about what people said. I saw more interest in digital downloads then ever before and it's going to piggy-back on what people are already doing with their music. They will (and have been) storing their movies on the same hard drives that they have their music collections on.

What is really funny is how you keep referring to sales as the only measure. It's absolutely ridiculous to be so narrow minded. Think about this:

1) Just as most people have ripped, copied from friends, and downloaded a large portion of their digital music collections, this is also the case with movies. You are completely dismissing the widespread practice of piracy and semi-piracy between people.

2) Just as music is being re-engineered and re-recorded to suit a different palate that eliminates things like dynamic range to reduce file size, the same is happening with movie content. Extras, unwanted sound format, languages, and other junk is all stripped out of pirated movies, but now there are programs that change the video and sound within the film to be more applicable to small portable devices and flat screens. And don't think this is just happening with pirated content, either, because that is also what the cable companies, VOD distributors, and the Amazons are doing. It's actually ironic that they are taking a cue from the pirates, just as the music industry did with music pirates and downloading.

3) BR will be valuable for collectors who want to own, but is that population growing or shrinking? You're been raving about how BR movies have so many more new releases, but that means very little to collectors. How many B&W classics are available on BR? And why would anyone bother? How many 70's, 80's, & 90's blockbusters on BR? Not too many I gather. The problem with BR is that it tries to cater to collectors, but it is releasing mostly content that appeals to the renters. Isn't that a kick in the pants?

4) Renting, by the way, is the crux of the argument and (big surprise) you want to downplay that. You mentioned Netflix as a better alternative to downloads, but those are exactly the people that will be drawn to downloading. The truth is that it's just a simple switch for them from receiving disks to downloading the content right to their TVs. Hence the reason the company is now offering downloads - they have wisely read the writing on the wall. People that rent will make downloading the dominant medium. This is because I believe that most people no longer have a desire to own movies - they want to watch them once and move on to other content. For these people, the "DRM-infestation" that we lament here on this board is a minor inconvenience, if they even notice it at all.

5) Speaking of renting, you're completely dismissing the habits millions of Americans who every week or so set their recorders to record what they plan to watch: your Tivo, PVR, and yes, even the VHS crowd. These people have grown accustomed to waiting for content - they will cue it up and download it - movies, tv shows, infomercials, documentaries. Much of what is being cued up for viewing, by the way, is movies from the movie channels. Since people have already paid for their pound of flesh to the cable company, this is essentially "free". Sure it's not as fresh as more current blockbusters, but for that they can use PPV and VOD. I truly believe that the downturn in DVD sales has far less to do with BR or the quality of the movies now coming out of Hollywood, then the simple fact that there is so much more free content available everywhere that people are watching instead.

The bottom line is that your dogged narrow-minded focus on sales figures misses some really big factors in this discussion. So what if VOD sales were stagnant for the past five years? That says very little about what is actually out there in digital format and being enjoyed by millions.

Oh, yes, and if the studios don't like it because they can't squeeze as much blood out of that stone, well the public has plenty of other options for entertainment as I've pointed out above. The studios will either get on board with it, or they'll go the way of the dodo. The "buying public" has no qualms about starving the studios out since they see them as bloated with money already or obsessive about copy-protection and harbor no love for them (just read the online posts). And yes, as much as you might hate to hear it, they see you, lil't, the little insider with the fat paycheck, in the same light.

Amazon sells FAR more disc than downloads, FAR MORE. Netflix rents more disc than downloads as well. There are way more titles on disc than Imovie.

Sure Amazons does, because they have a wide catalog that caters to collectors. Tell me lil't, isn't it true that NetFlix's download business is growing? Are you even willing to admit how much, with your insider info? Funny, you bring Apple's stake in this since they don't actually sell movies on disk. Let's see, we'll compare apples to nothing. Guess what? They are different! You don't say!

What you don't seem to get is downloading movies is not a growing market, is not economically feasible at this time, and not where analyst see the consumers spending their money. Analyst who follow the movie industry(as opposed to someone who does not seem to know anything about it, and couldn't get his last prediction right) believe that Bluray will be where the consumer puts their money now that the war is pretty much settled. The trend is already there(as evidenced by the fact that bluray alone is already a larger market than both VOD and downloading combined), and whatever cultural shift you predict will happen has not even learned to walk yet.

As I pointed out above, just because it's not where analysts are telling the studios they will make the most money (duh), that says nothing about its growth. The fact is downloaded digital video content on the internet is the fastest growing medium / file-format by far. Just because the studios can't figure out how to make money off of it, doesn't mean it's not growing. So the studios are going to doggedly push disk sales over downloads, is that what you're proposing? Well guess what? It didn't work for the music studios, now did it?

This shows how much you know. BR is already farther along than DVD was at this time period. And once again you are incorrect. PPV came to the bay area in 1997, the same year that the DVD was introduced. It was heavily advertised and very visible. People didn't take to it then. In terms of the comparison, you are wrong. Wooch and I have pointed out that every gauge to measure growth that was there is here now.

I guess we'll never agree on this. I categorically disagree with you that the market was anything then like it is now because the change in the internet over this time period makes any comparison impossible. It doesn't look like we'll be able to agree on this, so let's just let the readers who suffer through this thread (my apologies) decide that for themselves.

Player sales have nothing to do with internet downloads. Disc sales have nothing to do with internet downloading. Apples to apples mean directly comparing DVD players sales at two years, with Bluray/HD DVD players sales at two years. There is no need to evaluate anything but these two comparisons. You do not bring the internet in this equation at all unless all you are trying to do is derail clarity. Camparing apples against apples shows that HD on disc is growning faster than the DVD did at two years both in player sales, and disc purchased. It is just that clear.

I was not talking about player sales, I was talking about PVR, Tivo, xBox, and AppleMovie hardware sales. If I wanted to be a real stickler, I could have added media server sales, computers, and routers, but that is getting too computer-ish and I understand you've got a phobia there, so we'll stick to what you can get your little head around. Anyhoo, because these devices offer up the capability to download, they very much have something to do with it. And talking about just players (which you seem insistent on doing) ignores my 5 points above. How convenient. Again trying to limit the scope of the discussion to just the items that agree with your own argument. We'll I'll point out your obfuscations everytime - you don't seem to learn very quickly, do you?

I was the one that told you that DVD sales were down. And you attempts to tie downloading into that equation is not possible because downloading in terms of revenue is stagnant. ...There is absolutely no indication that folks were looking elsewhere for their entertainment as you assert... With revenues stagnant, they are not looking to downloads, and that is apparent. If downloading WAS the reason, you would see a correlation between the DVD decline, and a rise in income from movie downloads going to the studios. It ain't happen bro.

Again, so it's clear: "downloading in terms of revenue" is only a small part of the picture. Don't you get that? You don't want to get that because it flies in the face of your argument. Well just for once, can you please look at the whole picture and not just your little corner? If people were not looking elsewhere for their entertainment, where were they looking? DVD sales were down, were they not? Where did people turn? They turned to renting, free content, and yes, my little nit-wit, the big bad Internet. They, oh my gosh, watched downloaded content on their computers and their portable devices. And they did this, cover-your-ears-Mabel, without "paying" for it! And this isn't the end of civilization as we know it, there sparky. It may be indicative of a decline in the the studios, but life will go on.

There is no growth. At least no growth in revenue for the content providers. If you are speaking of free television programs, video off youtube and google, and other free services, you cannot compare that with DVD which is mainly a movie driven medium. Movies are not free. They cost on VOD, and through downloading services like Imovie and XBOX live. Free content is always free whether it is downloaded via Live, or through VOD. You cannot compare that with DVD because there is nothing free on a DVD.

Well my little fruity cavalier, I am comparing it to DVD (and BR) anyway. So sue me. If people are watching it instead of movies, then it's a useful comparison. And you're forgetting one of my main points, movies from cable movie channels, while not legally "free," are a large part of this unmeasurable content you seem to have such a hard time with. If people are making a digital copy and enjoying a 2-year old movie that aired on cable, then it's sorta "free" and it's keeping them busy from buying that shiny new disk, isn't it? So what if it's not HD quality? It's 2 years old, remember? No need to see it in HD. As long as people are watching something that they did not pay for on disk, it's competing directly for their attention, so yes, the comparison very much applies here. And I haven't even mentioned TV series (24, Prison Break, 6 Feet Under, Battlestar Galactica, etc.). They are a huge draw for digital downloaders, and guess what, they are freely available online! Tell me that doesn't cut into those DVD sales, and then we'll have something to talk about.

So? If it is not movies, then how do you think just downloading low quality video from youtube is going to effect a movie driven format like DVD and Bluray? Those two are about movies first, and television programs second. Snippets of video cannot compare with that.

It's funny how you keep using YouTube, perhaps the lowest quality video provider on the internet, as an example. If that is all you've seen online, no wonder you're so confused. Try surfing the web a little. Sidereel.com is a good place to start. And if you doubt that people are actually downloading these to watch them on their computers of TVs, just look at the download numbers. Now imagine being able to do that from your TV screen? So the quality is not HD, who cares? Well you (and me) and most collectors care, but what kind of economic impact does our little minority have? You might get a lot of support for ownership on this board, but how representative is that really of the general public? If this public is satisfied with 128kbs MP3s, they'll be satisfied with 640x480 in basic DD surround sound. Heck they don't get much better from most cable or satellite channels, so why should this be any different?

These people do not buy movies. They rent. Different market, different consumer, and different expectation of quality. You may be comfortable with this, but I do not know anyone who has chosen to wait 2-3 hours for something they can pop in a player and get in 30 seconds. Especially if they go through netflix to get the disc.

With regard to renting, see my points 3 & 4 above. Waiting 2-3 hours? What does that matter if it's in the middle of the night when they are sleeping? Or in the middle of the day when they're at work? Ever heard of Slingbox? I bet you wish you would have bout stock in that little upstart, huh? Now think of queuing up movies (as well as TV shows and everything else) the same way you do with NetFlix or Blockbuster. But instead of their limited catalog you now have access to theirs as well as those of Amazon, Apple, and a whole host of others? Now add the possibility of queuing up movies that haven't even come out yet? Want to watch the NBA Finals but you have to work? No problem, queue it up now.

Far fetched? Not at all. I purchase my movies from a queue: as soon as they are available on disk, they ship to me, it's all automated. Someday in the near future, I'll be forced to join that bandwagon and do my movies digitally, too - it's called progress, bub. Actually, I've been downloading the presidential debates and watching them on my computer at lunchtime. Yes it takes some time to download, but it's all done in the background and I hardly think about it. I have so much content downloaded, I could watch stuff for days and still have stuff left. I'll probably not even watch it all, but I've got plenty of what I need. It's only a matter of time before I do this for those movies I don't really care to own (and considering what's been belching out of these profit-above-quality studios, that's probably 90% of them).

There is also the possibility that the studio don't even offer the movie on VOD or for downloading. That is a much larger chance than not finding it at their retailer. Question to you, have you ever heard of a title being offered for download day and date with the DVD? Not a chance, there is always a window for sale through FIRST, and rental and downloading second.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but for those who absolutely need to see the movie before it's out, they can get a pirated version. Movies and shows almost always appear well before release. I wouldn't be surprised if the first episode of Lost isn't already floating around out there. But for non-crackers, they won't mind waiting. Why do I say that? Because the decline in theater ticket sales tells me so. If it's too expensive or inconvenient and it will appear on video soon, people will forgo the theater. What is really going to bake your noodle is that digitally, video can easily made available much sooner than it can be distributed on disk - so actually digital downloads into households will appear much faster then disks on shelves. Maybe that fact alone will be a nail in that coffin for movies on disk.

What if that dozen you choose won't all fit you your hard drive? Then you have to give up something you already saved and want to keep to accomodate new things. That does not happen with disc media.

Utter nonsense. This is where your lack of knowledge of technology is most apparent, lil't. Take the Tivo Series 3, for example. It has a SATA external drive hookup. I can plug in a 1Tb drive into that sucker and keep myself watching for some time. And as far as this change not happening with movies on disk, the exact opposite is true. I know quite a few people that have ripped all their CDs into a digital format, made several copies and are perfectly happy getting rid of the disks (I'm always on hand to help out with that part).

The fact is that most people don't want to hold on to the vast majority of their DVDs because they take up so much room - far more than a couple of hard drives, by the way. Of course, there are some disks we all want to keep (Godfather, Citizen Kane, Great Escape, and of course my whole Clint collection), and for those I'll probably eventually get the BR version, but that's not enough for the studios to build a business model on. After all, how happy do your think they will be with a loss of some 90% of their disk revenue (assuming people will only want to own about 10% of the movies they see). If that is what your insider-salary depends on, I'd be a little worried too. No wonder you've got your panties in a bunch over this and want to get as many people as possible to buy BR players. If I were you, I'd buy some Western Digital stock with that fat bonus you got this year, because the on-disk party is almost over....

Okay stupid little uninformed wanna be no nothing, it was stated at CES (which is why Warner made the switch to end the stalemate). It was stated at IFA 2007, and only a stupid little azz like you would trade a $42 billion dollar market for a $200 million dollar one. That is why they run studios, and you get on the internet and make some of the stupidest claims I have ever read. If any studio thought digital distribution was ready for prime time, they would have jumped all over it. The market is too small(its smaller than Bluray), nobody amoung the studios believes its time to abandon disc for download. Did it ever occur to your pee brain that is why you can get more titles on disc than you can get on VOD and downloading? You think to small, and perhaps that is because of your reduced brain size.

As I said, the movie studios can do what they want. Just because they don't see profit margins as big in downloading, that does not mean it's dead. Personally I think they are missing the boat. It's not unheard of for whole companies to do that, you know. Didn't Microsoft miss the Internet boat? Didn't Yahoo miss the simplicity boat? Didn't the music studios miss the downloading boat? What ultimately happens is that they eventually have to jump on board of risk being left behind. If they don't do it, their shareholders will do it for them.

Microsoft vision is to ditch the disc altogether and move to downloads using microsoft windows, XBOX live, and any device with Microsoft software running it. HDi, and VC-1 are both a part of that world. All HD DVD players and disc use HDi, and 98% of HD DVD movies are encoded with VC-1. Since the Bluray studios primarily use MPEG-2 or AVC, you now have 40% percent of movies that will not be using VC-1(and yes I heard that Warner will be releasing using AVC since they no longer have to port over titles to HD DVD). Paramount is currently in negotiations with the BDA, and word has it they are moving over to bluray as well. That means another studio NOT using HDi and VC-1. Universal will be the last to move(which they certainly will make before christmas season) and that will mean another studio not using VC-1. Everyone knows that Microsoft got behind HD DVD because A) they choose HDi and VC-1, and B) they wanted to split the market and keep the consumer as confused as possible so they would adopt neither format and move to downloads. The digitalbits and DVDfile have both reported this openly. By Warner choosing to move exclusive to one side(thereby giving that side 85% of the sales, and 70% of the titles) now bluray can move forward with their plan to replace the DVD, therby throwing a wrench in Microsofts confusion plans. Microsoft lost because now manufacturers have the confidence to manufacture bluray players(10 new manufacturers announced players at CES), computer manufacturers are not confident in putting bluray drives in their computers(all of the HD DVD drive makers other than Toshiba have switched their support), and there will be hardly any disc encoded with either HDi or VC-1, which means no revenue stream from royalites. If you understood the film industry half as much as you fake, even your pee size brain could logically think this through.

Wow, I can't believe you went through the trouble to list all that FUD. If you think for one second that Microsoft is wrong about the upcoming downloading boom, then I don't think you understand the company at all. It will happen, even if they have to make it happen. Whether they will be riding that wave with their own HDi and VC1, or buy out someone else's technology, I can pretty much guarantee that they've already got their surf boards polished. If these past three years all Microsoft wanted to do was postpone BR & Sony's success with their support for HD-DVD, then they have succeeded. I can almost guarantee you that they will be pushing downloads even harder now. I also expect xBox Live to be a major part of that push. If you think Microsoft is dead in the water, then you're not the first that thought that - take a number behind IBM, Borland, Novell and Apple.

Well price was not a factor, and the things you suggested that could help HD DVD were ludicrous because your knowledge of the industry is nil. Did you forget your little gem about the ship going down in the ocean full of bluray players increasing prices like porkbellies? I didn't say the outcome was certain, but I did state how it was going to play out, and so far, I was right. It doesn't really matter, all of your assertions on the subject were dead wrong, and the momentum is all bluray just like I said it would be.

First of all, I never claimed to be an expert, unlike yourself. I listed some scenarios, that from my experience in the computer industry actually did make an impact there. If I was wrong, is that such a horrible crime? Everyone tries to understand the world around them by using references to things they are familiar with. And just because it did not happen (I never said that it would, by the way), that does not mean it would not have had an impact - yes even the ship sinking example that you love to trot out there like a one-trick pony. The fact is, we'll never find out now, will we? People have paid their nickel. lil't, and they want more than your pathetic re-hashing of the same examples.

Groundbeef did a great job of pointing out how so many of your examples, links, and numbers were outdated and no longer applied. See that's the problem with your fancy stats and sales figures, they are all in the past. You can't seem to move on. Your whole world view is based on the past (kind of like your avatar). Well it's over, lil't, it's time to drag you kicking and screaming like the little child that you are, into the future, and that future is digital downloads.

Now I never said that HD-DVD was going to win anything. I said, starting about 6 months ago, that there were too many possibilities for the fortunes to change in the format war. And more importantly, I also said that both formats will be marginalized in the same way that SACD and DVD-A would be. Sure you had lots of reasons for trying to sabotage that comparison, but the fact that music on disk was supplanted by digital music, even when a two higher quality formats appeared, should at least give you pause about the future of the movie industry.

And even if you won't see the overwhelming similarities in the SACD/DVD-A example, I think most everyone else won't be as narrow minded as you. Just like there are still SACDs, there will also be BRs, but really, what percentage of the movie market will they every be able to reach? 10%? 20%, 30%. They are now at 5%, so I'm sure you'll relish in pointing out in a year or so that the numbers have grown 100% (that's FUD for a growth to 10% of the total market, by the way). Of course you'll be downplaying the percentage of downloaded movies with all kinds of FUD about what can and cannot be included in the comparison - you're pretty good at that. In the meantime most of us will be happily enjoying our downloaded movies and remembering how much of a comical character you were. Maybe one day we can download a video of your ranting and raving, wouldn't that be the icing on the cake?

Every bluray exclusive studio as stated they are committed to growing the HD disc market, no such promise was made towards downloads. If you ran a studio, what would you pay attention to, your $42 billion market, or your $200 million dollar one? You would probably choose the latter, which is why you don't run a studio.

I don't run a studio or even own stock in them because I don't invest in Enron-type debacles. Of course they are committed to BR, it's their one last taste of the rich life before they have to settle for more humble pie. You've been touting the $42B vs. $200M figure for some time now. How far in the past did you have to reach back for that little gem? Care to share some updated figures? And what is that $42B figure for? All movie sales, including BR, HD-DVD, VHS, and DVD? Well no wonder it's so much larger than just downloads? So now who's comparing apples to a kumquats?

How does a studio exclusive to HD DVD come out the good guys pushing downloads over disc based material when the HD DVD player does not store downloads but plays disc. How stupid is this??? That studio would be tarred and feathered if that happened.

Not stupid at all: by putting a hard drive inside. For Toshiba, a company that makes computers as well as all sorts of other home entertainment gear, that could be very easy and cost-effective (more on that below). I'm not saying they are going to do this, I'm only suggesting the possibility, so don't start using this as an example of a "lie," you eager lit't beaver.

Because doing so would add cost to the players, alot more cost and complexity. With that extra cost comes a loss of a talking point. Our players are cheaper than bluray players. With the loss of studio and manufacturing support, HD DVD has nothing left. And really, the best selling HD DVD players are the A2 and A3. The XA-2 has not sold that well, and the A-35 is not doing that well either. So there is no demand for a higher priced players than we currently see now. Your suggestion is plain stupid.

For Toshiba that cost would not be hard to sustain. Even if the unit cost $100 more because of a hard drive and tuner, that would still put it on par with all the BR players out there. Even if it's marketed as just an upconverting player/PVR, that just happens to also play HD-DVD, it could be quite a fancy device. Even for $500, it would still be cheaper than any PVR out there except Tivo.

More stupidity. Why sell a HD DVD player with no movies to support it? It is apparent that studio have already chosen bluray, and you have already lost $420 million dollars and counting. It would be more than stupid of them(but on par with you) for them to lose more money on something that already failed. A digital tuner, and compete with DVR's which would be cheaper? More stupidity. HD DVD is cooked, and only you would be retarded enough to try and revive something that took its last breath two weeks ago

Huh? Are you just not able to reason at all? In addition to the HD-DVD titles out there, owners would have one heck of a nice upconverting DVD player, but more importantly, it could download all that new video content that I've been talking about, you know, that you consider insignificant? Over time, as digital video selection expands, it will have a catalog far larger than any BR player will ever have. And as HD downloadable content starts to become more prevalent, it will also play all those HD movies that were previously exclusive of BR too. Throw in a rebate from the government because it has a digital tuner built-in (would love to see that happen), and it would be the ultimate HD all-in-one box to bridge the gap from today's analog world to tomorrow's digital one.

But there's no way to know if that will happen. After all, it's in the future, as a possibility, and you're not comfortable with that, are you? I bet you don't care for modern classical, abstract art and avant-guarde films either? Figures. Well there's a place for Luddites like you: in the past. And I sure hope you stay there.

Yeah right, because if you had, you would have clearly known they have been pushing the same stuff for years, repackaged and with a new message every year. None of it took off. This year you have several companies pushing it, with no business plan, no studio support, and no hardware to be seen. Oooooo big time push.

There are several differences: this year, hard drive technology (in the TV room) will meet that demand. Another detail: just as in the past there were more and more vendors using digital music players to show off high-end audio gear, there were this year more vendors using digital video on disk to show off their wares. Also, with the BR/HD-DVD format war fizzling out, there is a refocusing of the new war between the on-disk folks (you, me and the "collectors") and the digital proponents (the general public). If I can pull another example from the SACD/DVD-A war: it wasn't until that war was over that it became obvious that downloads would drastically drive down disk sales. Funny how there actually are so many similarities between the two format wars, huh, lil't?

You are becoming the next year kid. Everything is just wait till next year, wait till next year. What do you think things just appear out of nowhere?. Things have to trend up, and with downloading of movies it is not. We are talking movies here, not music or anything else.

History is full of examples showing that it takes a little time for revolutions to settle down into a steady change. History is also full of examples of how revolutions occur after a major event or war. The trends are there, you're just not seeing them because you narrow your criteria too much. If you would just for once broaden your view just a tad, you'd see that digital downloads are on the verge of a huge increase in popularity. Just follow the stocks of those companies that are riding that wave - it's quite the contrarian sector in this down economy. Easy to get into too, because the price is still affordable. You should really take a look to carry you over that pink slip fiasco if your company doesn't change, either.

So you really are going to advance this as an arguement? I got a rather large bonus this year, and so did many of the folks that I work with in this business. That does not mean anything.

Well of course you got a bonus, because BR just had a major victory and you work for a BR-only studio - that's no surprise - but it will be short lived. Who know, you'll probably do OK as your company shifts more and more of it's business to online digital content. But if it stays on this sinking ship of disk-only movies, then I'd grab a life-vest pretty quick. In mentioning my bonus I only brought it up as an indication that my industry is doing just fine, thank you. You're doing great as well? Who cares? We're not talking about that and you're completely missing the point. You were insinuating that the computer industry is not doing well - which is a load of horse-crap from an uninformed outsider. It all depends in how well one's company shifts it's focus to new and emerging technologies. My company is migrating from Web 2.0 technologies to more video-focussed ones and I think they are on the right track (or I'd be working on my resume right now if they weren't).

You lied, and I pointed it out. You lied, and now you are in denial about the lies you told. How about the lie that my video processor/switcher was a mass market product. You didn't lie about that? I do not know ANY product that costs close to $10k that can be labeled as mass market. And how does it become mass market when it has never been released to the market?

Since you opened that door, come on in. Let me kick your ass. I apologize to everyone else as the next few paragraphs are off-topic, just skip down to the last paragraph of this post to finish. Unfortunately lil't is an insistent little imp that just can't accept that he could actually be wrong...

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I said that the brand name (i.e. Sony) indicated that it was a mass-market product. I may not have known everything about it, but I never claimed to be a know-it-all, either. So I was a little overzealous about calling your precious little toy mass-market. It's still Sony and is thus dragged down in value because of all the other mediocre products the company produces - you can't deny that (sort of like that Onkyo amp you have, no?). But does my statement make me a liar? That's a stretch, and you know it.

Or how about the story about the friend at said high end audio company, which turned into the person who works for customer service(who never know shyte about future products released) to another source higher source within the company Which is it? I bet you cannot figure that one out today. That had more lies in it than brownies have nuts.

Simple: I asked my friend about the product, he didn't know. He emailed the company, they emailed back. I quoted you verbatim from the email.

How exactly does that make me a liar? Oh, you wanted to see the letter on company letterhead? Sorry, email doesn't work that way, didn't you know that? But if you're so intent on finding out, why don't you send them an email and see what their plans are? It's a littl;e after the fact, but it might be informative. Of course, we'll have to trust you to be honest about your quoting too. I guess it cuts both ways, doesn't it? In any case, it does not make me a liar, so drop it.

Or what about the DVD player that has the option of playing either DSD native, or PCM, even though the player cannot pass DSD nor process it?

I said that it could output PCM. I did not say it could play DSD native.

It may be that I didn't quite understand what you asked and that somehow my answer was not specific enough for you to understand (we've seen that before), but I'm pretty sure I did not say that it passed DSD. In any case, I certainly wasn't trying to lie about it. After all, why would I? If you recall, I was only trying to explain what I had remembered ('cause I'm not in front of the TV when I'm online here) what I had set it for back home. What possible advantage would I have gained in "lying" about that?

What about I use room treatments to make up for channel imbalances? Either this is a lie to hide something else, or stupidity so profound that it scares the color out of your face.

If I didn't know exactly what the room treatments corrected for (and I certainly never claimed to be an expert), then this isn't a lie either.

I'll grant you that I don't know as much about this as the pros do. What I do know is that they made a dramatic improvement in the sound - everything became more clear and focussed. And even if I didn't know exactly what the panels and traps were correcting for, I can assure you my friend who installed and configured them for me, did. As a matter of fact, he challenged me about it, because I didn't believe in them - after having them for a month or so I bought them. Regardless, how exactly does that make me a liar?

Now if you want to take this issue to 10 pages, and look as stupid as you did before, we have a two page head start.

That's your obsession. I have a life and I'm only interrupting it here to point out that you are wrong on so many points that it's a miracle I bother to point them out. Instead of challenging me to another 10 pages, let's see if you can trim down your self-aggrandizing pontifications and suggest something that actually holds up.

Anyhow, back to the thread....

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Well, lil't, you've done a good job of extending this thread well beyond where it could have been. You've done a good job of spreading FUD. You've done a good job of waiving the BR fan-boy flag. you've done a good job of confusing the issues. You've done a good job of littering your posts with figures that upon closer analysis don't hold up. You've done a good job of intimidating people. You've done a good job of making yourself out to be the court buffoon instead of a terrible knight, LOL. You've done a good job of trying to insult me. And you've done a good job of trying to make me out to be a liar.

But you have not done a good job of explaining to us how BR will win over downloading. And that is really why we're here, no?