Toshiba fights back......well kind of

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

GREAT LINK, but dont expect anymore from Sir T than the reply hes already posted.
Downloading is the enemy of the optical format his company is touting.
Not that it matters what he thinks, nor his little tricks, like concentrating on Internet
downloading, when Cable is whats strong and will be out of the gate faster.
He'll also tell you that the net doesnt have the "capacity" for massive downloading,
well, the oil supply doesnt have the capacity to keep churning out silver discs with content you can get over a wire.
I have heard about the "limited" capacity of the web for years, and it keeps expanding like a supernova.
I remember the first Mp3 I downloaded, took half an hour for a 5 mg file.
Today I download entire albums in the same time off of newsgroups, and PAYPERVIEW (vod) doesnt take anytime.

I have a 99$ 320 gig usb drive that I got from short circuit, its going to house my music collection, be both portable AND accessible, with sound rivaling a high end CD player.
High end CD players are basically obsolete, btw.
how much video is that? 347 hrs. HD video? 38 hrs.
The future is the hard drive, basically, thousands have been working on these in labs for years, quietly expanding capacity.
And you're a collector? Show that you have already bought a movie, and it will be replaced if you lose it, at least thats the idea being worked on now.
DVD was such an advance that it was a no- brainer to replace everything, which I did.
But as much as I like Blu, the picture is not enough of an improvement to warrant changing everything out, there are few Bladerunners out there, discs that you just HAVE
to have

Sorry Pix,,
But the same issues that dog downloading over the internet dog VOD on cable systems. VOD of movies is a huge bandwidth hog. VOD is not making any money, and hasn't in three years. Downloading via the internet is not making any money either as three downloading services(including Walmarts) have already gone under.

Cable systems have to increase their bandwidth tremendously to send a 1080p file that is not overcompressed along with lossless audio. They are going to have to make it much cheaper, and to compete with disc it will have to come with less DRM. That is not going to happen. For both downloading and VOD they want MORE DRM to protect their investments.

VOD and Downloading are going to effect the rental market profoundly, it is not going to effect the disc collector for a long time until it can match the quality and performance of disc, is ownable and moveable like a disc is.

So what do I do, tell my buddy I am bringing my hard drive over so we can view movies, or do I tell him I will bring a movie disc to watch. Guess which I am willing to carry over?

In order for cable to be strong, its got to make money. A market that has only grown to $200 million in 10 years is not what I call strong or what anyone else with good sense would call strong.

[Groundbeef]

Cable systems have to increase their bandwidth tremendously to send a 1080p file that is not overcompressed along with lossless audio. They are going to have to make it much cheaper, and to compete with disc it will have to come with less DRM. That is not going to happen. For both downloading and VOD they want MORE DRM to protect their investments.

VOD and Downloading are going to effect the rental market profoundly, it is not going to effect the disc collector for a long time until it can match the quality and performance of disc, is ownable and moveable like a disc is.

So what do I do, tell my buddy I am bringing my hard drive over so we can view movies, or do I tell him I will bring a movie disc to watch. Guess which I am willing to carry over?

.

2 points Sir T. It appears that your main sticking point to VOD/Digital Delivery is its lack of 1080p/lossless audio. For YOUR setup/AV gear, DD/VOD may not be the best choice, but most casual users don't have your setup. 720p, 5.1 should suffice for most "average" users.

Its not really fair to say that its not going to be successful until it is a standard 1080p/lossless. After all, DVD isn't even that quality, and its doing just fine.

2nd point. Although you point about bringing a disk versus a HD is "funny" its not really going to mean much in even a few months. Right now you can get 8 gig flash drives (USB key ring thingies), and thats enough to hold an uncompressed DVD w/audio.

Within a year, solid state HD technology will be 2X or 3X that capacity. More than enough for a HD movie with modest compression, and certainly not enough to be a problem to carry around. In this fashion, it doesn't seem improbable for consumers to d/l a movie and park it on a memory stick to take around.

Even your PS3 can read a memory stick. Pretty impressive for a game machine I might add...

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

2 points Sir T. It appears that your main sticking point to VOD/Digital Delivery is its lack of 1080p/lossless audio. For YOUR setup/AV gear, DD/VOD may not be the best choice, but most casual users don't have your setup. 720p, 5.1 should suffice for most "average" users.

Beef, there are alot more people out there with high end theaters than you think. There are alot more people out there with good to very good equipment. You cannot expect them to go back to 720p after seeing 1080p images on large screens. If you are not trying to include them in your downloading theory, then downloads will not succeed. Innovation is always driven by early adopters. If you cannot get their attention(and VOD and downloading by all means has not) then you cannot expect it to succeed. Not alot of folks are going to buy a 360 just to get Live. Not many folks are going to pay the premium price for VOD and not be able to own it.

Its not really fair to say that its not going to be successful until it is a standard 1080p/lossless. After all, DVD isn't even that quality, and its doing just fine.

The quality of DVD exceeds most downloads largely because the audio and video is not nearly as compressed as both in VOD and downloads. Both HD DVD and Bluray folks(which now exceed the VOD and downloading folks) have been looking at high quality 1080p images, and listening to PCM or DTHD for almost two years. You are going to have to reach at least that level if masses(both high end and low end folks) are going towards downloads and VOD.

2nd point. Although you point about bringing a disk versus a HD is "funny" its not really going to mean much in even a few months. Right now you can get 8 gig flash drives (USB key ring thingies), and thats enough to hold an uncompressed DVD w/audio.

There is no such thing as uncompressed DVD. Everything pertaining to the DVD is compressed. Besides, uncompressed audio without video is pretty useless in a video format. If we now have disc that have almost 48 gigs of information(Pirates of the Carribean with extras) then its going to take alot of those sticks to make it happen. We are not there yet.

Within a year, solid state HD technology will be 2X or 3X that capacity. More than enough for a HD movie with modest compression, and certainly not enough to be a problem to carry around. In this fashion, it doesn't seem improbable for consumers to d/l a movie and park it on a memory stick to take around.

So what if the flash drive gets corrupted. Not much use is it? What if because of DRM it cannot be played in but one place(that is going to be a reality) to prevent pirating. What kind of copy protection could it have? It will have to have copy protection or the studio are not going to touch it. Without content, what is the point?

The point I am trying to make to you is while all of these are still in developement, BR and HD DVD to a lesser extinct have grown to be a larger revenue base than download and VOD put together. Until everyone(studios and consumers) abandon disc altogether, do not expect the studio to support a new technology.

Even your PS3 can read a memory stick. Pretty impressive for a game machine I might add...

If this is another one of your immature digs, I ain't biting. But remember what you said in the off topic section about how we discuss things. Do not dig if you don't want to start a war.

[Groundbeef]

Beef, there are alot more people out there with high end theaters than you think. There are alot more people out there with good to very good equipment. You cannot expect them to go back to 720p after seeing 1080p images on large screens. If you are not trying to include them in your downloading theory, then downloads will not succeed. Innovation is always driven by early adopters. If you cannot get their attention(and VOD and downloading by all means has not) then you cannot expect it to succeed. Not alot of folks are going to buy a 360 just to get Live. Not many folks are going to pay the premium price for VOD and not be able to own it. .

I'm not discounting your theory, and I'm not underestimating the size of the market that ownes top shelf equipment. However, for every 10K home theater( or more) there are plenty of folks with a HDTV, HT in a box, and composite (red, white, yellow) connections.
Furthermore, I'm not going to spend $30 on a BR (or HD-DVD) for my kids. DD/VOD will be fine for them thank you very much.

As much as you take me to task for "ignoring" groups, you tend to give little credence to the general market, and instead focus on the top 5%. Unfortunatly, there is the other 95% that studios need to market to as well.

The quality of DVD exceeds most downloads largely because the audio and video is not nearly as compressed as both in VOD and downloads. Both HD DVD and Bluray folks(which now exceed the VOD and downloading folks) have been looking at high quality 1080p images, and listening to PCM or DTHD for almost two years. You are going to have to reach at least that level if masses(both high end and low end folks) are going towards downloads and VOD. .

Again, your right with the top 5% of the market. But for casual users, I don't see it as a problem.

There is no such thing as uncompressed DVD. Everything pertaining to the DVD is compressed. Besides, uncompressed audio without video is pretty useless in a video format. If we now have disc that have almost 48 gigs of information(Pirates of the Carribean with extras) then its going to take alot of those sticks to make it happen. We are not there yet. .

I mis-spoke. A standard DVD can be "copied" onto a D/L (dual layer) blank DVD with no "additional" compression. So it would seem to reason that a DVD could be copied onto a flash drive with little or no additional compression as well. Thats what a I meant. Sorry for the confusion.

So what if the flash drive gets corrupted. Not much use is it? What if because of DRM it cannot be played in but one place(that is going to be a reality) to prevent pirating. What kind of copy protection could it have? It will have to have copy protection or the studio are not going to touch it. Without content, what is the point? .

To your point, what if the physical media gets ruined? If you kid scratches the Nemo BR, your out $30. If I corrupt my flash drive, I re-copy it to something else. Thats actually a counterpoint for owning physical copies.

This is a little off topic, but I feel that copy protection is going to actually end studio sales sooner than later. Consumers are only going to put up with so much/many hoops to jump through. Pretty soon, its going to be as irritating as Toyota only allowing Prius Cars to be run in the carpool lanes. Go into general traffic and a GPS device will shut down the engine.

If I buy a copy of a movie (disk or otherwise) legally, I should be able to take it where I damn well please. If I want to make copies of my LEGALLY purchased DVD's so my kids don't ruin the master copy, I should be able to do it. Digital CRM is gone awry IMHO.

I'm not sure how to balance it, but it seems that every "innovation" is becoming more and more anti-consumer.

The point I am trying to make to you is while all of these are still in developement, BR and HD DVD to a lesser extinct have grown to be a larger revenue base than download and VOD put together. Until everyone(studios and consumers) abandon disc altogether, do not expect the studio to support a new technology. .

I think it has more to do with convience rather than media. With BR/HD-DVD you buy a player, plop in a movie and watch. With VOD/DD you need a computer, or another device to d//l the product, and then watch it. If MS, or Dell, or Apple can actually get a device that is fairly inexpensive into the living room, I think things would be changing.

If this is another one of your immature digs, I ain't biting. But remember what you said in the off topic section about how we discuss things. Do not dig if you don't want to start a war.

I'm just seein' if your readin'!