Toshiba fights back......well kind of

[JSE]

I'm sorry, but I may be nieve in saying this. But I don't think the majority of the public is going to want to down load a movie onto a hard drive from the net and then plug it into a TV when you can go to blockbuster and rent a DVD and put it in a cheap DVD player. Most of the public doesnt have high end equipment.

You don't need highend equipement for video downloads and when the technology catches up, it will be easier than driving to BB to pick up a movie. You will download and play the movie on the TV of your choice. Very simple. Also more "green" since you will save on gas and not clog the atmosphere . There you go greenies!

And what about people that like to buy movies and have hundreds of moives in their collection. Are they going to have to buy multiple expensive terrabyte hard drives when they can just buy a DVD, I dont think so. Of course, I could be all wrong!

Yes they will. Memory is cheap now and will be even cheaper in years to come. Downloads will probably be cheaper than a Blueray DVD or standard DVD so you will offset the price of memory quickly.

Another huge misconception is that people won't trust storing movie on their hardrives. This is just wrong and I will bring up the digitial photography example again. People have had no problem giving up film. The average joe consumer is not like the consumers who frequent this and other boards. People who are concerned about ultimate quality and having high end systems are the minority. To think the general public thinks like people on this board is just naive.

Movie downloads will be the future. There is no getting around that. It will take some time but it will be the standard one day. Not today and not next year or even the next few years but it will take over. Technology will advance, it's just a matter of time.

The bottom line is that BR/HDDVD need to get things straightened out now, not tomorrow. They have limited future and they need to take full advantage while they can.

JSE

[Groundbeef]

Cable TV blows man!

That sounds like a really bad tagline in a Porno Blog.

[GMichael]

You don't need highend equipement for video downloads and when the technology catches up, it will be easier than driving to BB to pick up a movie. You will download and play the movie on the TV of your choice. Very simple. Also more "green" since you will save on gas and not clog the atmosphere . There you go greenies!



Yes they will. Memory is cheap now and will be even cheaper in years to come. Downloads will probably be cheaper than a Blueray DVD or standard DVD so you will offset the price of memory quickly.

Another huge misconception is that people won't trust storing movie on their hardrives. This is just wrong and I will bring up the digitial photography example again. People have had no problem giving up film. The average joe consumer is not like the consumers who frequent this and other boards. People who are concerned about ultimate quality and having high end systems are the minority. To think the general public thinks like people on this board is just naive.

Movie downloads will be the future. There is no getting around that. It will take some time but it will be the standard one day. Not today and not next year or even the next few years but it will take over. Technology will advance, it's just a matter of time.

The bottom line is that BR/HDDVD need to get things straightened out now, not tomorrow. They have limited future and they need to take full advantage while they can.

JSE

Nice post.

I agree. Downloading will take over someday. But it's not up to snuff at this point.

[Rich-n-Texas]

I'll see about renting a movie from my FIOS VOD service this weekend and report back on it's HD PQ.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

You don't need highend equipement for video downloads and when the technology catches up, it will be easier than driving to BB to pick up a movie. You will download and play the movie on the TV of your choice. Very simple. Also more "green" since you will save on gas and not clog the atmosphere . There you go greenies!

How do you see netflicks in this. Their service does not require you use gas, or clog the atmosphere. They deliver to your door, and you stick the DVD/Bluray back in the mailbox when finished. Plus you do not get a heavily compressed movie(complete with artifacts) and a low bitrate DD soundtrack. You get lightly compressed AVC or VC1 with lossless audio. You do not need a high end system to enjoy that, my buddy enjoys this on a quientet III with a 1080p plasma.

Yes they will. Memory is cheap now and will be even cheaper in years to come. Downloads will probably be cheaper than a Blueray DVD or standard DVD so you will offset the price of memory quickly.

JSE, the studio are not going to undercut their prized revenue stream for downloads. The studio heads of the big 8 studio in Hollywood have already come out saying this publicly. The business model for downloads is not feasible at this time, and most do not believe it will be for years to come. Walmart and two other companies have already shut down their downloading service. The studios are not ready for the downloads, at that is buttress by the fact you do not see more movies for downloading than you currently see on bluray.

Another huge misconception is that people won't trust storing movie on their hardrives. This is just wrong and I will bring up the digitial photography example again. People have had no problem giving up film. The average joe consumer is not like the consumers who frequent this and other boards. People who are concerned about ultimate quality and having high end systems are the minority. To think the general public thinks like people on this board is just naive.

JSE, you are wrong on this one bro. Digital photography is just pictures, it is not a movie that one has invested in. Film was a pain in the bottom. You had to pay for it in the first place, pay for developement, and wait for it to come back. That is not how purchasing a movie is. It is rather easy and brainless to pick digital photography over film. People shop at BB and impulsively buy movies, or they go to Amazon and point and click, and it is delivered to your door. This is not quite the same as downloading a movie, and being forced to watch it before your 24hour window is up. You cannot take a digital download to your friends house, and you have to maintain a backup as well. Joesixpack is not ready for this complexity, they just want to pop the disc and press play.

Movie downloads will be the future. There is no getting around that. It will take some time but it will be the standard one day. Not today and not next year or even the next few years but it will take over. Technology will advance, it's just a matter of time.

The only model that VOD and downloads will take over from is renting. Everyone knows this. Your ardent collector of movies will stick with the disc. I base this on the fact that VOD(or PPV as you will) has been around for a decade and has managed to only grow to a $200 million dollar revenue stream. It has been stuck at around that point since 2003. In that same decade the DVD was born(everyone thought VOD will kill the DVD) and grew to a $42 billion dollar business. While VOD and downloads have been stuck at $200 million dollars, in the last couple of years bluray and HD DVD have grown to a 4 billion dollar market and growing faster than DVD did at the same time in its history.

The bottom line is that BR/HDDVD need to get things straightened out now, not tomorrow. They have limited future and they need to take full advantage while they can.

JSE

We both absolutely agree on this. However I think the Bluray exclusive studio have decided to just leave Universal behind since they are really the only hold outs at this point. Paramount will be on board within the next few months.

[Woochifer]

Any idea who was buying them? Someone must have been buying them for Sony to bother making them that long.

Betamax was used in professional circles, for editing, archiving, and digital audio (some of the earliest PCM digital recorders recorded onto Betamax tapes). Plus, ED Beta (which originally came out in the late-80s alongside S-VHS) remained the highest quality home video archiving format available to consumers until D-VHS came onto the market in 1998.

[JSE]

How do you see netflicks in this. Their service does not require you use gas, or clog the atmosphere. They deliver to your door, and you stick the DVD/Bluray back in the mailbox when finished. Plus you do not get a heavily compressed movie(complete with artifacts) and a low bitrate DD soundtrack. You get lightly compressed AVC or VC1 with lossless audio. You do not need a high end system to enjoy that, my buddy enjoys this on a quientet III with a 1080p plasma.

JSE, the studio are not going to undercut their prized revenue stream for downloads. The studio heads of the big 8 studio in Hollywood have already come out saying this publicly. The business model for downloads is not feasible at this time, and most do not believe it will be for years to come. Walmart and two other companies have already shut down their downloading service. The studios are not ready for the downloads, at that is buttress by the fact you do not see more movies for downloading than you currently see on bluray.

The only model that VOD and downloads will take over from is renting. Everyone knows this. Your ardent collector of movies will stick with the disc. I base this on the fact that VOD(or PPV as you will) has been around for a decade and has managed to only grow to a $200 million dollar revenue stream. It has been stuck at around that point since 2003. In that same decade the DVD was born(everyone thought VOD will kill the DVD) and grew to a $42 billion dollar business. While VOD and downloads have been stuck at $200 million dollars, in the last couple of years bluray and HD DVD have grown to a 4 billion dollar market and growing faster than DVD did at the same time in its history.

We both absolutely agree on this. However I think the Bluray exclusive studio have decided to just leave Universal behind since they are really the only hold outs at this point. Paramount will be on board within the next few months.

T, I can agree with you almost 100% on all of the above except for the photography issue in terms of the world "Today". But, I am not talking about "Today". I am talking about the world "tomorrow", in 5 to 7 years-ish. All the industry dynamics and consumer dynamics you refer to above will change and change drastically. Think back 10 years ago about the technology we had. Now think of today. We have come a tremendous distance and the speed of technological advancement is speeding up everyday with each new advance.

Now for the photography reference,

JSE, you are wrong on this one bro. Digital photography is just pictures, it is not a movie that one has invested in.

Just Pictures? This is not true. How is a photo any different than a movie in terms of value? I can replace a movie but there is no way I can replace an image. Myself and many others feel we have a huge investment in our images. I make "some" money off mine, other make their living off of them. Others simply have family photos that are very dear to them. These are investments.

Film was a pain in the bottom. You had to pay for it in the first place, pay for developement, and wait for it to come back. That is not how purchasing a movie is. It is rather easy and brainless to pick digital photography over film.

I guess your not that into photography. For pros, avid and casual photographers, digital has not always made it easier. Film was much easier and less time consuming. Much less expensive equipment and software were/are needed with film. With film, you take the photos, dropped off the film and have it processed in about an hour. It can take me days to go through a couple of rolls of film and to get the final images I want with digital. Trust me, there are a lot of tradeoffs with digital. I find myself sitting in front of the computer much, much more now.

People shop at BB and impulsively buy movies, or they go to Amazon and point and click, and it is delivered to your door. This is not quite the same as downloading a movie, and being forced to watch it before your 24hour window is up. You cannot take a digital download to your friends house, and you have to maintain a backup as well. Joesixpack is not ready for this complexity, they just want to pop the disc and press play.

Again, your pretty much correct in "Today's" world. I am speaking of "Tomorrow's" world. Things will change. You will be able to copy of movie to a small memory card or USB keychain type drive and plug it into your friend's receiver/TV/Hub or whatever. Very easy and really not very different that carrying over a DVD. But again, tomorrow. Not today.

[L.J.]

However I think the Bluray exclusive studio have decided to just leave Universal behind since they are really the only hold outs at this point. Paramount will be on board within the next few months.

Universal doesn't have to go completely Blu.....neutral is fine with me

[Woochifer]

So long as movie downloads remain locked down by DRM, and view/time limitations, they will remain nothing more than an extension of the existing PPV and VOD markets. I used to think that Blu-ray/HD-DVD had only a few years before their market would dry up, and HD downloads would take over.

But, the schemes unveiled to date (e.g., Xbox Live, and the new Apple TV HD movie downloads) are tepid efforts at best, and do absolutely nothing to actually grow the market. Apple's newly unveiled movie download rental program is promising in that you can move the file between any devices logged onto your iTunes account (a little more transportable than other downloading schemes that lock the file onto one device). But, these rentals only give you a 24 hour window to watch a movie before the file locks up.

While this might cost Blockbuster and Netflix some customers, I doubt that this will shift the habits of people who currently buy DVDs. Until the studios take the locks off and allow customers to download movie files with minimal restriction and usage limits, I think the download market will simply displace existing rental, PPV, and POV avenues, rather than take significant market share away from disc media.

Downloads won't be attractive to consumers until these limits are removed, and removing these limits won't be a good option for the studios until it can be demonstrated that downloads that people "own" create more revenue than they currently get from discs.

The home video industry used to depend on a rental pricing structure on VHS tapes, where new movie releases would carry list prices ranging from $80 to $120 for a period of a few months before getting repriced closer to $20 for retail sell-through. The time period during which this rental pricing was in effect, those titles were not available for PPV, VOD, or any other home video channel.

The DVD turned the industry inside out by creating demand for retail sell-through at the time of release. The studios quickly found that they could make a lot more money by selling DVDs at list prices of $30 (for new releases) and $20 (for library titles) than they could by keeping that rental pricing structure intact. Right now, the majority of the home video market is retail sell-through, and this is the studios' biggest revenue stream. This is why PPV and VOD don't get those titles until they've been out on DVD for a while.

Even with DRM-free downloads that allow for unlimited viewing, there's still the issue of bandwidth. One analyst called this the "Target" question -- does it take less time to download a movie file than picking up a DVD at the local Target store? Right now, for the majority of households, the answer remains no. While we should expect that broadband speeds will continue to improve, if consumers transition over to HD resolution in a big way, then it will take even longer to download HD files and for broadband speeds to make it feasible for impulse purchase.

[Groundbeef]

The time period during which this rental pricing was in effect, those titles were not available for PPV, VOD, or any other home video channel.

This is why PPV and VOD don't get those titles until they've been out on DVD for a while.

Even with DRM-free downloads that allow for unlimited viewing, there's still the issue of bandwidth. One analyst called this the "Target" question -- does it take less time to download a movie file than picking up a DVD at the local Target store? Right now, for the majority of households, the answer remains no. While we should expect that broadband speeds will continue to improve, if consumers transition over to HD resolution in a big way, then it will take even longer to download HD files and for broadband speeds to make it feasible for impulse purchase.

Not to interupt this little discussion, but I wanted to point out something.

I don't know where XBOX Live fits into the equation, but it gets new movies the same day as DVD releases. I have rented "We Are Marshall" in HD the same day it was released on DVD. Thats the first one to come to mind. There have been others as well. I'll have to check into other titles if you want, but I'd rather not do the work

[blackraven]

Any one ever have a hard drive die. I've had 2. Thats why I keep paper copies of all important documents or photo's. Wait until someone has a collection of movies on a hard drive that die's. Your also assuming that every one will be able to afford mega hard drives and all the associated equipment. I have no doubt that downloading will be the mode of choice for movies, but I don't think that DVD will ever die until Hard drives, memory and computer drop down in price to the level of a $30 DVD player. You are forgetting about all the tens of millions of people at or below the poverty line that will not be able to afford the new equipment that you will need for downloading and storage on a terrabyte hard drive.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

So you speak for the whole American public? LOL. It's absolute nonsense, and you know it. If the American public is willing to trust their whole music collection to disk, then there's no reason to believe they won't trust their movie collections to the same medium. I think the success of iTunes is a perfect example of how wrong your expectations are. You're wrong, and while I can't demonstrate it now, it will become apparent as downloading technology and marketshare increases. Come back here in a year and we'll see how silly your understanding of the American public is.

Glad your back, I was bored. The American public speaks with their dollars. Music is different than movies. What works for music does not work for movies. Walmart, Google, and movie gallery have all shut down in 2007. Revenue is flat, and the studios are focusing on growing HDM on disc not movie downloads. Can you explain how Bluray/HD DVD even during a war has grown larger than VOD and downloading put together in terms of revuenue? That is because people want the disc, not a DRM infested low quality download. I do not have to speak for the American public, they speak through their money, and it ain't headed towards downloading whether we are speaking of VOD or XBOX live. How wrong was I about bluray? It turns out not one of your scenarios played out, and yet you are still calling me wrong. You said wait till next year about HD DVD and bluray. It didn't even take that long to play out, just like I stated.

With regard to renting, you're attempting to dismiss the importance of it by slyly wedging it into the topic of downloading & owning - entirely unrelated. Yes, I had to cut and paste that sentence out separately from your quote, because as usual you're trying to confuse the argument. Renting is a huge part of this equation. What you don't seem to understand is that downloading is a cultural shift for people. The more they do it, either through Netflix, Amazon, iMovie, or Tivo, it creates an expectation that this is how movies, and even TV shows, are seen.

Renting has not been a huge part of the equation since the studio shifted to a sell through market years ago. Every since they have gone to sell through, rental incomes means less and less to the studios bottom line, and sales of disc are basically funding film projects.

Amazon sells FAR more disc than downloads, FAR MORE.
Netflix rents more disc than downloads as well
There are way more titles on disc than Imovie.

What you don't seem to get is downloading movies is not a growing market, is not economically feasible at this time, and not where analyst see the consumers spending their money. Analyst who follow the movie industry(as opposed to someone who does not seem to know anything about it, and couldn't get his last prediction right) believe that Bluray will be where the consumer puts their money now that the war is pretty much settled. The trend is already there(as evidenced by the fact that bluray alone is already a larger market than both VOD and downloading combined), and whatever cultural shift you predict will happen has not even learned to walk yet.

Netflix, and later Blockbuster revolutionized the renting industry by fundamentally changing two very important facets of renting: staying at home and vastly increasing choice. If you can understand nothing else, you can't possibly tell me that you can't see that downloading expands those conveniences further - not only is the choice expanded exponentially because from one screen the user has far more vendors to choose from, but the technology has advanced to allow the convenience of doing it all from their TV screens, not their slow-to-start and buggy computer in another room.

You are talking about a market that has lost its influence a long time ago. Renting is not what the studio are emphasizing. They are working on growning the largest revenue source for them. It isn't renting, it isn't VOD and it isn't downloading, its HD on disc sale through. VOD and downloading isn't even on the radar with them. Why hasn't VOD taken off? You cannot own it, it has term limits, you have to pay everytime you want to see it, and you cannot burn it to disc unless its nothing more than a TV program. Both VOD and downloading are stagnant while disc sales are growing like crazy. VOD nor downloading have even scratch DVD sales, and with flat revenue, its doesn't look like its touching bluray either. People who collect movies will not go to downloads, that is the bottom line. Evidence is everywhere that proves this. It isn't even apparent that the rental market has been negatively impacted as Blockbuster and Netflicks still send far more disc out than downloads that have occured.

Now I know that flies in the face of our very real desire to physically touch & own the disks, but the cultural shift is much farther along than you are willing to admit. Yes, there is a psychological shift that has been under way for years. And as an owner of a huge record, CD, and DVD collection, I'll be the first to lament this trend, but I'm smart enough to see the writing on the wall, too. Yes, it's lower quality in a download, but the convenience far outweighs that shortcoming (more on that below).

I know this is difficult for you to understand, but early technology adopters push cultural shifts, and their support trickles down to everyone else. It happen with the VCR, Laserdisc, DVD, and now HD DVD and Bluray. With the exception of Laserdisc, all of these formats grew to be huge revenue sources for both manufacturers and the Studios themselves. Neither VOD nor downloading has taken off(its been a decade now) because largely these early adopters are not interested in the product. Neither VOD or downloading is growing, so how is it farther along than I am willing to admit. I can see the numbers very clearly, and they have pointed to stagnation for the last three years.

So? just because DVD took off faster, it's no guaranty of BR's potential rise to replace it - the two trends could very well be mutually exclusive, especially if you consider that there was not real movie-downloading option back when DVDs took off. As I've said repeatedly, there are simply too many differences in the movie and related industries between then and now to make that comparison stick. What happened in the past is no guarantee of the future.

This shows how much you know. BR is already farther along than DVD was at this time period. And once again you are incorrect. PPV came to the bay area in 1997, the same year that the DVD was introduced. It was heavily advertised and very visible. People didn't take to it then. In terms of the comparison, you are wrong. Wooch and I have pointed out that every gauge to measure growth that was there is here now. You have so little knowledge of the movie industry(which is so apparent in our last discussion) you do not even know how to evaluated anything that is related to it. Your assertion in our last discussion didn't even come close to playing out, not even close or in the ballpark of close. What you are attempting to do(AGAIN) is to cloud a clear issue with bull. You are bringing too many unrelated things into a clear arguement. Player sales have nothing to do with internet downloads. Disc sales have nothing to do with internet downloading. Apples to apples mean directly comparing DVD players sales at two years, with Bluray/HD DVD players sales at two years. There is no need to evaluate anything but these two comparisons. You do not bring the internet in this equation at all unless all you are trying to do is derail clarity. Camparing apples against apples shows that HD on disc is growning faster than the DVD did at two years both in player sales, and disc purchased. It is just that clear.

Did you also know that DVD sales were down in 2007 for the first time in the history of the format? And don't even try and tell us this is solely because of the strength of Blu-Ray sales, which accounted for a mere 3% of the total movie market. No, the reason it was down is because people are finding other ways to get their entertainment. And while download sales may have trailed behind BR sales, as you asserted elsewhere, total downloads could not possibly have. What else would make up the difference?

I was the one that told you that DVD sales were down. And you attempts to tie downloading into that equation is not possible because downloading in terms of revenue is stagnant. If you read Warner reasons for going bluray exclusive, one of those reason was people were not buying DVD's because many see it as a format that has matured, and the format war was making everyone wait things out. In other words, they are waiting to see who will win to begin purchasing again. There is absolutely no indication that folks were looking elsewhere for their entertainment as you assert(and with of course no support for your assertion as usual). With revenues stagnant, they are not looking to downloads, and that is apparent. If downloading WAS the reason, you would see a correlation between the DVD decline, and a rise in income from movie downloads going to the studios. It ain't happen bro.

Who's saying they have to be mass downloads? What we see now is a gradual, slow but steady growth.

There is no growth. At least no growth in revenue for the content providers. If you are speaking of free television programs, video off youtube and google, and other free services, you cannot compare that with DVD which is mainly a movie driven medium. Movies are not free. They cost on VOD, and through downloading services like Imovie and XBOX live. Free content is always free whether it is downloaded via Live, or through VOD. You cannot compare that with DVD because there is nothing free on a DVD.

This assumption about the Internet is nonsense and shows how little you understand it. People are downloading more video now than they ever were. It may not be HD, and it may not just be movies, but they are downloading.

So? If it is not movies, then how do you think just downloading low quality video from youtube is going to effect a movie driven format like DVD and Bluray? Those two are about movies first, and television programs second. Snippets of video cannot compare with that.

The people experiencing the cultural shift I described above is also quite comfortable waiting for the movie to download. Take Tivo for example, people are perfectly comfortable letting that sucker churn 2-3 hours in the middle of the night to download their movies and shows. The reason is because people also become used to waiting to record the shows that will air later in the week. Waiting for video content is a fact of Internet and cable life that the public is just fine with.

These people do not buy movies. They rent. Different market, different consumer, and different expectation of quality. You may be comfortable with this, but I do not know anyone who has chosen to wait 2-3 hours for something they can pop in a player and get in 30 seconds. Especially if they go through netflix to get the disc.

Yes, it may be faster to run to the local blockbuster or best buy and pick up a disk, but then there's always the possibility it will be out, it will not in their chosen format, or it will be hard to find on the shelf. More importantly, instead of picking one or two movies or shows, the public can now select dozens at a time. Yes, they'll have to wait, but it's not like they can watch them at the same time anyhow. While they wait they can watch stuff they have already downloaded.

There is also the possibility that the studio don't even offer the movie on VOD or for downloading. That is a much larger chance than not finding it at their retailer. Question to you, have you ever heard of a title being offered for download day and date with the DVD? Not a chance, there is always a window for sale through FIRST, and rental and downloading second.

What if that dozen you choose won't all fit you your hard drive? Then you have to give up something you already saved and want to keep to accomodate new things. That does not happen with disc media.

Really, they've stated this? OK, my little insider imp, who stated this? How long ago did they say this? I seriously doubt they are singing that tune now.

So you are already start the name calling. Okay stupid little uninformed wanna be no nothing, it was stated at CES(which is why Warner made the switch to end the stalemate). It was stated at IFA 2007, and only a stupid little azz like you would trade a $42 billion dollar market for a $200 million dollar one. That is why they run studios, and you get on the internet and make some of the stupidest claims I have ever read. If any studio thought digital distribution was ready for prime time, they would have jumped all over it. The market is too small(its smaller than Bluray), nobody amoung the studios believes its time to abandon disc for download. Did it ever occur to your pee brain that is why you can get more titles on disc than you can get on VOD and downloading? You think to small, and perhaps that is because of your reduced brain size.

Whoa there, little cavalier, slow down that pony, there. How exactly is the "vote againist HD-DVD" by Warner seen as a rejection of Microsoft's vision? Being as little as you are, I wonder how widely you can see that one. Despite Microsoft's encryption being shipped on every HD DVD disks, the company has been just as interested in pushing downloadable distribution. They wisely saw that HD-DVD was a way to get their product out into the market, now they can push it into the online distribution channel, too. And even if it was a rejection of Microsoft's vision (and I certainly don't hear any studios saying that publicly), that's still not a rejection of downloadable content. I haven't heard any studios complaining about Amazon or NetFlix. No the fact is the studios are very well aware that this is a new market they need to be part of, hence the reason they embrace it.

Microsoft vision is to ditch the disc altogether and move to downloads using microsoft windows, XBOX live, and any device with Microsoft software running it. HDi, and VC-1 are both a part of that world. All HD DVD players and disc use HDi, and 98% of HD DVD movies are encoded with VC-1. Since the Bluray studios primarily use MPEG-2 or AVC, you now have 40% percent of movies that will not be using VC-1(and yes I heard that Warner will be releasing using AVC since they no longer have to port over titles to HD DVD). Paramount is currently in negotiations with the BDA, and word has it they are moving over to bluray as well. That means another studio NOT using HDi and VC-1. Universal will be the last to move(which they certainly will make before christmas season) and that will mean another studio not using VC-1. Everyone knows that Microsoft got behind HD DVD because A) they choose HDi and VC-1, and B) they wanted to split the market and keep the consumer as confused as possible so they would adopt neither format and move to downloads. The digitalbits and DVDfile have both reported this openly. By Warner choosing to move exclusive to one side(thereby giving that side 85% of the sales, and 70% of the titles) now bluray can move forward with their plan to replace the DVD, therby throwing a wrench in Microsofts confusion plans. Microsoft lost because now manufacturers have the confidence to manufacture bluray players(10 new manufacturers announced players at CES), computer manufacturers are not confident in putting bluray drives in their computers(all of the HD DVD drive makers other than Toshiba have switched their support), and there will be hardly any disc encoded with either HDi or VC-1, which means no revenue stream from royalites. If you understood the film industry half as much as you fake, even your pee size brain could logically think this through.

No, lil't, you're lying about what I said. I did not "insist that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price." Price would be a factor, I certainly agree with that, but that was not the only thing I said (go back and read the posts). I suggested in several threads that there were things that Toshiba, Microsoft and the HD-DVD studios could do to help the format. I proposed scenarios that could very well have altered BR's fortunes in this war. But I never said, emphatically and arrogantly like you have, that the outcome was certain. Don't say I did, because that is a bold-faced lie. I only suggested alternate endings to this war.

Well price was not a factor, and the things you suggested that could help HD DVD were ludicrous because your knowledge of the industry is nil. Did you forget your little gem about the ship going down in the ocean full of bluray players increasing prices like porkbellies? I didn't say the outcome was certain, but I did state how it was going to play out, and so far, I was right. It doesn't really matter, all of your assertions on the subject were dead wrong, and the momentum is all bluray just like I said it would be.

But more importantly I also suggested that both HD-DVD and BR would be marginalized by downloadable content. And that is precisely what I am suggesting is already happening now. So now, you want us to believe that because BR beat HD-DVD, it will do the same to downloadable content? Sorry, but I don't buy that. You're underestimating how much this format war has hurt BR and given downloadable content real teeth it might not have had without the format war.

Your track record on suggestions is not something I would take to the bank. If downloads were going to marginalize Bluray(we cannot even bring HD DVD into the equation) we would have already seen the erosion of DVD sales, and the increase in VOD and downloads of movies. We have not seen the latter, and the former is firmly traceable to the format war. People who buy disc are not interested in downloads of a lesser quality. The studio are already set to release more titles on disc than they are going to release to VOD, XBOXlive and Amazon. Every bluray exclusive studio as stated they are committed to growing the HD disc market, no such promise was made towards downloads. If you ran a studio, what would you pay attention to, your $42 billion market, or your $200 million dollar one? You would probably choose the latter, which is why you don't run a studio.

Wouldn't it be another kick in the pants for you if they would hold on to the bitter end and start pushing downloadable content as a way to make us the loss in revenue? If they did, they would at least not alienate their loyal HD-DVD customers and be seen as the good guys in this sordid affair. I'm not saying that this will happen, but I would love to see you eat that crow.

You cannot make up a loss in revenue from a stagnant source. Well maybe in your convoluted world you can, but not in the real world. This is more of your stupid logic. How does a studio exclusive to HD DVD come out the good guys pushing downloads over disc based material when the HD DVD player does not store downloads but plays disc. How stupid is this??? That studio would be tarred and feathered if that happened.

Crow is not my speed, but after you last scenarios didn't even come close to playing out, you must be full of the stuff.

And as far as Toshiba having, lost? I'm not there yet either. The HD-DVD players already have ethernet, so what if the next player they produce has a hard drive in it?

Because doing so would add cost to the players, alot more cost and complexity. With that extra cost comes a loss of a talking point. Our players are cheaper than bluray players. With the loss of studio and manufacturing support, HD DVD has nothing left. And really, the best selling HD DVD players are the A2 and A3. The XA-2 has not sold that well, and the A-35 is not doing that well either. So there is no demand for a higher priced players than we currently see now. Your suggestion is plain stupid.

Being a manufacturer of computers, that would certainly not be a stretch. They are at the forefront of laptop research, so what if this hard drive was solid state? Now you're talking 2-3 time the access speed of disk-based drives. Throw in a digital tuner and that next generation HD-DVD player becomes a really interesting piece of gear. All the technology has already been developped, it's just a matter of putting it together in one box. I'm not saying this is what they'll do, but just think of the potential. At $2-300 each, that's one hell of a product.

More stupidity. Why sell a HD DVD player with no movies to support it? It is apparent that studio have already chosen bluray, and you have already lost $420 million dollars and counting. It would be more than stupid of them(but on par with you) for them to lose more money on something that already failed. A digital tuner, and compete with DVR's which would be cheaper? More stupidity. HD DVD is cooked, and only you would be retarded enough to try and revive something that took its last breath two weeks ago,

Same interest generated? Hardly. There's been a market increase this year. Anyhow, people are buying now. Let's pick this up in a year, when we have some real Tivo, Amazon, NetFlix, and iMove sales figures. I don't know what hardware sales were for this past holiday season, but I'm going to guess that they were pretty brisk. Tivo is riding the analog shut-off scare pretty hard in their sales pitch and is really the best option for the millions of homes with analog TVs - if the government rebate applies to their box, that will be a huge boost for them this year. Once it's in people's homes, it's just a few clicks of the remote to start downloading over the internet. As a matter of fact, it's by far the simplest and easiest interface I've seen to do this.

Oh, and yes, I actually have been paying very close attention to CES.

Yeah right, because if you had, you would have clearly known they have been pushing the same stuff for years, repackaged and with a new message every year. None of it took off. This year you have several companies pushing it, with no business plan, no studio support, and no hardware to be seen. Oooooo big time push.

You are becoming the next year kid. Everything is just wait till next year, wait till next year. What do you think things just appear out of nowhere?. Things have to trend up, and with downloading of movies it is not. We are talking movies here, not music or anything else. According to NDP, movie downloading in terms of revenue is flat, and there is no trend upwards, and nothing to suggest so either. Even with all of those XBOX360 sold, XBOX live is flat as a pancake. In spite of the fact that cable companies are selling tons of HD packages(mostly for sports) VOD is flat as a floor. All analyst that follow the MOVIE industry say that the growth area within that industry is with disc sales of HD movies. They that they'll be strong growth from 2008-2011 at the least, and perhaps beyond.

Well, not to burst your bubble, but in this down-economy of layoffs and retail downturns, my job and jobs like mine have been booming. I bet there aren't many other industries that are paying their employees bonuses this year, are there? I think my industry is benefiting tremendously from the convergence of video and the internet. Maybe your negative view of us is envy and jealousy due to the downturn in your little world?

So you really are going to advance this as an arguement? I got a rather large bonus this year, and so did many of the folks that I work with in this business. That does not mean anything. There is nothing about your pityful azz that would make me jealous. I have stated too many times in many posts, I do not care about you, your job, your mom or dad, or your third cousin on your mother side twice removed. I feel sorry for you, because you embarrased yourself time after time for 10 pages in another area on this very topic, and you were wrong as two left shoes on a one right foot man. My world has survive far more economic downturns than yours have. The movie making business did very well during the great depression, one of the few industries that did. The down turn was self inflicted, and has been remedied in one fail swoop. Thanks Warner.

Well as the Internet and video continue to converge like they have for the the past five years, we'll see who's right won't we, my little Luddite? Keep waiving that little feather for BR, if you must. And just so we're clear, I'm not saying BR is going to be blown away by downloads, I'm saying it will be marginalized as an option for movie ownership that will represent just a fraction of the movie market as the rest of it moves online. Yes, you can quote me on that.

Yes, I will put that quote right next to the ship going down quote. Or the earthquake in japan quote also followed by the blurays are like porkbellies quote. This quote will be in good company.

You know, I stopped with the last thread because it was so full on falsehoods, FUD, and outright lies that I didn't want to burden everyone with your pointless pontifications about your supposed superiority. And if you're going to bring up that old nonsense about me being a liar, then maybe you should read what I wrote again. I have not lied on this board, so please give it a rest. But it just seems that no matter where you troll, you seem to piss off everyone with your condescending tone - as soon as you join in the discussion the whole thread turns to one tense and unpleasant quagmire. I've received dozens of private messages from people who think of you as a pompous bore, and while they try to tell you this as tactfully as possible in just about every post, you just don't seem to get it. If all you're going to do is turn every thread into a miserable debate about yourself, then just don't. I may not be that tactful, but I'll repeat what I said before, how many times do I have to flush before you go away?

You lied, and I pointed it out. You lied, and now you are in denial about the lies you told. How about the lie that my video processor/switcher was a mass market product. You didn't lie about that? I do not know ANY product that costs close to $10k that can be labeled as mass market. And how does it become mass market when it has never been released to the market? Or how about the story about the friend at said high end audio company, which turned into the person who works for customer service(who never know shyte about future products released) to another source higher source within the company Which is it? I bet you cannot figure that one out today. That had more lies in it than brownies have nuts. Or what about the DVD player that has the option of playing either DSD native, or PCM, even though the player cannot pass DSD nor process it? What about I use room treatments to make up for channel imbalances? Either this is a lie to hide something else, or stupidity so profound that it scares the color out of your face.

Now if you want to take this issue to 10 pages, and look as stupid as you did before, we have a two page head start.

[Mr Peabody]

Anybody watch the financial reports? If Apples download plans are so hot why did their stock drop after their show? Because of the lack of new product and enthusiasm for what they did show.

I don't see downloading of one form or the other taking over, at least in the near future. My habits are such I don't see it in my future at all. I have a fairly up to date computer and DSL, I still get the occasional sound drop out on streaming audio or listening to music samples. If this happens with just audio I can imagine what a piece of crap a movie would be. Cable has a long long way to go before they would even make a dent in the market. Not everyone has cable or if they do, not very many people have the dream service Pix seems to have.

With all that being said, you'd have to be blind not to see that certain factions of the industry sure want alternative ways of delivering entertainment to the consumer. Panasonic and a few others are going to start offering TV's with circuitry built in to them to interact with cable. If that isn't a stepping stone I don't know what is. This still don't mean a take over, it just means some one wants a piece of the pie. Comcast has announced some major plans to offer more movies, a projected database of 6,000 titles and they will use 4 analog stations to deliver a movie download. First big draw back is this plan is limited to COMCAST.

Most of you live in larger cities and fail to realize that a good size segment of consumers can't get cable or broadband if they wanted it. You see all this cutting edge stuff and get all excited but not every one gets to play. St. Louis isn't a small town and our cable system isn't much better today than it probably was 20 years ago. Like I posted some where, they, being Charter, just went "digital" last summer. If it wasn't for satelite becoming a viable option for rural areas they'd be out the picture all together.

Anyway just some thoughts to stir in.

[L.J.]

See.....there you guys go with the long posts again. I have made it pretty clear, but I'll say it again........I'm Lazy. Can someone please sum this up with a sentence or 2 please?

[Mr Peabody]

See.....there you guys go with the long posts again. I have made it pretty clear, but I'll say it again........I'm Lazy. Can someone please sum this up with a sentence or 2 please?

Whatever will be, will be...

[diggity]

is it just me, but if they start making downloads available on such a massive scale, wouldn't that make the movies more prone to pirating? the studios' wouldn't want that.

or i may be wrong, its' happened once or twice before!

cheers: dazza

[pixelthis]

See.....there you guys go with the long posts again. I have made it pretty clear, but I'll say it again........I'm Lazy. Can someone please sum this up with a sentence or 2 please?

Okay here you go, laz-e-boy.
DOWNLOADING IS THE FUTURE.
Sentence 2...Sir T is riled up in inverse porportion to what affects him, the dl issue affects him because he KNOWS that its the future.
OKAY...carry on

[GMichael]

See.....there you guys go with the long posts again. I have made it pretty clear, but I'll say it again........I'm Lazy. Can someone please sum this up with a sentence or 2 please?

BLU-RAY RULES!!!!!!!!!!!
Downloading is more convenient if done correctly.
Not everyone agrees as to when it will be done correctly.
It has yet to be done correctly IMO.
If and when it is ever done correctly it has a lot of potential to take over.
No matter how correctly it's ever done in the future, some people will still buy disks.
BLU-RAY RULES!!!!!!!!!!!
Our HD-DVD players will make good boat anchors for some.
Mine will be used to play HD-DVD's std DVD's and CD's for many years.
BLU-RAY RULES!!!!!!!!!!!

[Rich-n-Texas]

You are correct GM. Save your pennies for a shiny new Blu-ray player. I'm sure there is a large population of people who have neither cable/satellite/fiber service nor computers. I know a few myself. The best HD PQ is still OTA, and VOD is tethered to the above mentioned services.

[GMichael]

You are correct GM. Save your pennies for a shiny new Blu-ray player. I'm sure there is a large population of people who have neither cable/satellite/fiber service nor computers. I know a few myself. The best HD PQ is still OTA, and VOD is tethered to the above mentioned services.

I have a PS3. It will do just fine till I need/want something for the alternate systems.

[Groundbeef]

Any one ever have a hard drive die. I've had 2. Thats why I keep paper copies of all important documents or photo's. Wait until someone has a collection of movies on a hard drive that die's. Your also assuming that every one will be able to afford mega hard drives and all the associated equipment. I have no doubt that downloading will be the mode of choice for movies, but I don't think that DVD will ever die until Hard drives, memory and computer drop down in price to the level of a $30 DVD player. You are forgetting about all the tens of millions of people at or below the poverty line that will not be able to afford the new equipment that you will need for downloading and storage on a terrabyte hard drive.

TB harddrives can be bought at BB for $250-300
Online even cheaper.

BB has computers (Tower) on sale for as little as $399 that include over 400GB of storage. Your concerns on pricing are a bit overblown. If you are living below poverty line, its doubtful your stocking up your DVD collection either.

[L.J.]

BLU-RAY RULES!!!!!!!!!!!
Downloading is more convenient if done correctly.
Not everyone agrees as to when it will be done correctly.
It has yet to be done correctly IMO.
If and when it is ever done correctly it has a lot of potential to take over.
No matter how correctly it's ever done in the future, some people will still buy disks.
BLU-RAY RULES!!!!!!!!!!!
Our HD-DVD players will make good boat anchors for some.
Mine will be used to play HD-DVD's std DVD's and CD's for many years.
BLU-RAY RULES!!!!!!!!!!!

If/when Bluray wins this thing, I'm gonna move my A2 into my bedroom and use it as a DVD player. Once the exclusive HDDVD movies I own come out on BR, I'll replace them and sell off the HDDVD copy.

So now I gotta figure out what I'm gonna do with that empty shelf once the A2 is moved. "But honey, I gotta put something there. That empty spot looks so ugly." Yep, that should work. Thinking maybe an Xbox

[Rich-n-Texas]

Knowing your track record and ability to hoodwink the wife L.J. ...shouldn't be any problems.

[GMichael]

By then, you may be able to get a BR add on for the Xbox. Then you'll have to move that into the bedroom. Now what will you put in that spot?

[Rich-n-Texas]

Good job of keeping him on his toes GM (and helping him spend his money!)