Paramount and Dreamworks Go HD-DVD Exclusive

[PeruvianSkies]

STAY nervous.
The logic (or lack of) of buying FOUR players from a format not yet established aside,
the fundamentals of the market stay the same.
This just means that toshiba will regain a little more investment before their "format"
tanks.
About all it means short term is a lower price for BLU players, long term it means almost nothing

Ya just don't quit do ya???

[pixelthis]

Ya just don't quit do ya???

NOPE, and you just dont listen do ya?
Both of these "formats" are the "old" way of thinking, that in order to buy media
you have to get "physical", but the new way of thinking is why buy when what you want
is available on a server somewhere on the planet, available at a moments notice.
We just dont have the petrochemicals to make billions of shiny discs every year just so people can watch movies, downloading is already price competitive with rentals,
with the price of gas going higher downloading looks more attractive all of the time
If the two warring factions had any sense they would team up against their common
enemy, but after three and a half decades of following the electronics industry I have yet
to see anything aproaching "common sense"

[PeruvianSkies]

NOPE, and you just dont listen do ya?
Both of these "formats" are the "old" way of thinking, that in order to buy media
you have to get "physical", but the new way of thinking is why buy when what you want
is available on a server somewhere on the planet, available at a moments notice.
We just dont have the petrochemicals to make billions of shiny discs every year just so people can watch movies, downloading is already price competitive with rentals,
with the price of gas going higher downloading looks more attractive all of the time
If the two warring factions had any sense they would team up against their common
enemy, but after three and a half decades of following the electronics industry I have yet
to see anything aproaching "common sense"

I was always told never listen to those who try and teach their opinion and pass it off as fact.

[pixelthis]

I was always told never listen to those who try and teach their opinion and pass it off as fact.

I have never tried to pass of my "opinion" as fact, just because you cant tell the difference
between an opinion and a statement of fact isnt my fault.
Must be the product of a modern education

[Woochifer]

A lot of good comments posted so far ...

Fitting in with kex's scenario, I'm one of those consumers that had been sitting on the fence, and looking forward to going with Blu-ray sometime next year. But, obviously MS put an end to that plan. At this point, I'm not entirely sure what I'll do, and that's exactly the kind of thinking that MS is likely trying to create in the market. MS is HD-DVD's second biggest purported supporter, yet their actions boil down to impeding the market progress for HD optical media in general. Sure, they're trying to take a bigger piece of the pie away from Blu-ray, but ultimately they're also trying to limit how big the overall pie grows.

It's frustrating because Paramount's actions are clearly not market-driven, but rather totally financially driven. I can see how accepting an in-kind arrangement with MS would benefit Paramount and Dreamworks' bottom line. $150 million is petty cash to MS (Microsoft now claims that it's not a cash arrangement), but I would venture to guess that it's worth a lot more than the revenue that Paramount and Dreamworks would get from Blu-ray sales. They are entitled to make that decision, but it's also anti-consumer considering that this action does nothing more than constrict the market and Paramount had already announced several upcoming Blu-ray releases that they have now cancelled.

An underreported aspect of this Paramount/Dreamworks arrangement is that it will only last 18 months. After that time, Paramount is free to ramp up Blu-ray production again.

But, in the context of this format war, 18 months might be enough time for HD-DVD and Warner in particular to force the market into a dual format compromise of some kind. I don't like it, because it still leaves market confusion and any kind of dual format compromise means higher costs for consumers. Unfortunately, this also has long-term ramifications for both formats, as I think this seriously slows down market adoption for both HD optical discs in general.

Without this move, I seriously doubt that HD-DVD would have remained a viable format for 18 months. The whole market moving to Blu-ray I think would end any lingering confusion, more rapidly ramp up the market for HD optical discs, with lower costs for consumers in the long run. With HD-DVD in the mix as a viable minority format, this increases the likelihood of both formats failing. As I've said before, the real competition should be the DVD, and I doubt that retailers will be too happy with maintaining triple inventories indefinitely. If the HD disc market begins to plateau at any point, I can see retailers pulling back on their orders and letting the Blu-ray and HD-DVD sections languish, which leaves consumers stuck with 480p DVDs much like SACD/DVD-A's failure leaves music fans stuck with two-channel 44.1/16 CDs.

As far as HD downloads go, I think it's a nonfactor so long as these downloads have time and/or view limits. If these downloads could reside on one's hard drive with no time or view limits, then I would see them as viable competition for HD optical media. But, with these restrictions in place, they are not yet viable replacements for disc purchases, but rather a lateral move away from rentals and PPV.

Plus, aside from these HD downloads (at least with the Xbox service) coming with only 720p resolution, I'm also curious as to how they handle the audio. Are we talking about 448k Dolby Digital? Or the lower resolution (and noticeably inferior) 384k Dolby Digital, which is what you get with HDTV broadcasts? And is there any kind of DTS option? Either way, I doubt that these video downloads will come with lossless audio. The mass market might not care, but it's yet another way that HD downloads might wind up taking a step back.

Microsoft is obviously trying to grease the tracks for HD downloading, but that market has a lot of other players waiting in the wings. Depending on how the market plays out, Microsoft might be doing nothing more than the dirty work for other players like Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Directv, Dish, and Apple who all likely have their own HD PPV/downloading plans.