New Harris Poll bashes Blu ray!

[ldgibson76]

Well, it seems according to the latest Harris Interactive Poll, that Blu ray still has an uphill battle despite winning the format war.

http://www.electronichouse.com/artic...hnology_again/

Now granted, there were only a little over 2500 people surveyed. Do you think that this poll is an accurate barometer of blu ray's current and future market penetration in the US?

Regards.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

If this poll came from anyone else, I would be concerned. However Harris has been trashed time and time again from other survey companies because their survey's appear to be agenda driven, and when you track down the sources that commission the surveys, they are usually the competition hell bent on tearing another competitor down.

1. I do agree the public is satisfied with DVD, however will they continue to be satisfied when the studios start to concentrate on the bluray disc, adding value content that cannot be found on DVD? We haven't gotten that far yet, so this can change people's perceptions.

2. This survey was taken at the lowest sales point of the post holiday season. I suspect this was purposeful as to cast as dark a light as possible on bluray as they can. Had they had taken this during the lead up to the holiday season, there is no doubt the results would be different.

3. Once again the "Toshiba effect" has reared its ugly head. Because of what Toshiba has done with pricing of their players(much the dismay of their bottom line) there perception is that HD movie players are cheap, and bluray's prices are too high. While DVD had its negative detractors, player pricing was not really an issue because nobody was undercutting the price of players. There was no format war, so price perceptions did not exist.

While I do think Bluray has its issues(I would like to see more A list titles out, and more consumer education, Disney and Panasonics tour is not enough). They need to be in BB and Circuit City doing demos every weekend. What I am seeing is that most folks are waiting for Bonus view players to hit the market en mass. I do see that the market for 1.0 players is losing steam, but the market for 1.1 players is beginning to really really boom.

Just to give context to what I am saying, Harris predicted that HD DVD would win the format war. Harris predicted that HD DVD would be the first to a million players. Harris said that Toshiba was making money on each player(the amount of their losses diputes that). Harris predicted that Warner would go HD DVD, and Fox would follow them. (Fox had no intention on defecting to a less protected format, and a few of us knew that Warner was leaning blu at the time)

[Rich-n-Texas]

The problem I have Id is clicking on links posted here on the forum by spammers (a.k.a cmckenney). Electronic House is not a sponsor of this site AFAIK, in fact I'd say it's a competitor of this site's parent. On well regulated/moderated sites, that's not allowed. I've complained about this guy before but it seemed to fall on deaf ears. In ANY of his posts (except for the ones where he's defending his motives) the link is included. Nothing personal against you though.

I'd say... as soon as us consumers start getting hammered with TV commercial after TV commercial about the virtues of Blu-ray, that's when sales will take off. It's the American way and whatnot. We're all just blind sheep in the eyes of Marketing.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

The problem I have Id is clicking on links posted here on the forum by spammers (a.k.a cmckenney). Electronic House is not a sponsor of this site AFAIK, in fact I'd say it's a competitor of this site's parent. On well regulated/moderated sites, that's not allowed. I've complained about this guy before but it seemed to fall on deaf ears. In ANY of his posts (except for the ones where he's defending his motives) the link is included. Nothing personal against you though.

I'd say... as soon as us consumers start getting hammered with TV commercial after TV commercial about the virtues of Blu-ray, that's when sales will take off. It's the American way and whatnot. We're all just blind sheep in the eyes of Marketing.

Baaaaaaaaa to you Rich dude!

[Rich-n-Texas]

Sony flunkie.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sony flunkie.

High falut'en Rich person who drinks oil for breakfast

[GMichael]

MMMMMMMmmmmmmmm..... High def........................
Mmmmmmmmmmmmm............ Cute girls in high def...............

Mmmmmm mmmmm mmmmmmmmmm

[ldgibson76]

MMMMMMMmmmmmmmm..... High def........................
Mmmmmmmmmmmmm............ Cute girls in high def...............

Mmmmmm mmmmm mmmmmmmmmm

There you go again, flaunting your "Pimpish" ways! Wave your pimp flag!

[GMichael]

And GM manages to throw yet another, otherwise good thread, into the gutter.

[bobsticks]

MMMMMMMmmmmmmmm..... High def........................
Mmmmmmmmmmmmm............ Cute girls in high def...............

Mmmmmm mmmmm mmmmmmmmmm

Pimps Up!! Hoes Down!! West Siiiiiddddeeee....

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Pimps Up!! Hoes Down!! West Siiiiiddddeeee....

Gimme my money.......should I say it? I dent know hoes had their own store. I know they have their own real estate, its called the "Ho Stro".

[kexodusc]

I personally believe that if BluRay wasn't going to be a hit with consumers eventually, it wouldn't be where it's already at, ahead of where DVD was at this far into its life cycle.
That's rather remarkable really - DVD was the first real mass-market consumer ready video upgrade in almost 20 years for most of the world (laser disc didn't get near the exposure for whatever reason, I think the DVD was seen more as the CD equivalent for video which helped)...BluRay is just evolutionary and you wouldn't expect it to have as much appeal as it already does, but the market is proving the naysayers wrong.

[bobsticks]

I personally believe that if BluRay wasn't going to be a hit with consumers eventually, it wouldn't be where it's already at, ahead of where DVD was at this far into its life cycle.
That's rather remarkable really - DVD was the first real mass-market consumer ready video upgrade in almost 20 years for most of the world (laser disc didn't get near the exposure for whatever reason, I think the DVD was seen more as the CD equivalent for video which helped)...BluRay is just evolutionary and you wouldn't expect it to have as much appeal as it already does, but the market is proving the naysayers wrong.

Ditto.

[Mr Peabody]

The poll says 9% of the people plan to go Blu in the next year BUT did anyone stop to think the other 91% may already be in the Blu, so no need to go where you are already at. Yah?

My problem with ho's is I can't find one that takes a check.

[Smokey]

The poll says 9% of the people plan to go Blu in the next year BUT did anyone stop to think the other 91% may already be in the Blu, so no need to go where you are already at. Yah?

Is that some type of reverse psychology

I really think this type of polls keep popping up until price of Bluray drop to certain comparable performance/price level against DVD. Next year we probably will have a better handle on Bluray as cheaper price players (Sony promised a $200 player) stock store shelves.

My problem with ho's is I can't find one that takes a check.

You need to go uptown

[pixelthis]

Is that some type of reverse psychology

I really think this type of polls keep popping up until price of Bluray drop to certain comparable performance/price level against DVD. Next year we probably will have a better handle on Bluray as cheaper price players (Sony promised a $200 player) stock store shelves.



You need to go uptown

Accorrding to sir talky its that darn Toshiba and their "TOSHIBA EFFECT"
DAGNAB THEM for selling players at a reasonable price!!
Basically Sony and others are trying to get the consumer to pay for the "format" war by selling them overpriced players.
most of them arent interested in getting fleeced, even if they had the money, which they dont thanks to food and gas prices.
DVD was about a five mile "jump" Blu about half a mile, most are interested in utility for the price, in other words they wont pay a small fortune for a new toy if they dont see a cost/benefit ratio in line with reality
And its an even harder sell for those of us who know that a Blu player is basically a
DVD player with a blu laser and some improved software.
A PS3 is 399, why pay 400 for a player alone?
Heres an idea, sell a PS3 with the game trash gone anbd nothing left but the player.
AND PRICE IT ACCORDINGLY.
I have repeatly said that people and the market dont give a tinkers damn about what the "studios" and manufacturers "want".
they ARE NOT going to pay 400$ for a toy that is a (to them) slight advantage over what they have already.
I have access to HD movies on VOD, and regular cable.
THE PICTURE MAY NOT BE AS FANTASTIC AS bLU, but its still darn nice.
I CARE MORE ABOUT MUSIC THAN MOVIES anyway,
so I will wait.
Which should concern the "blu barons" more than anything.
Because if the few who really care about every incremental increase in q are
waiting, joe sixpack certainly is.
A 200 buck player is doable, AND EVERYBODY KNOWS IT.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Yeah Pixie, the players price was so reasonable that the company lost nearly one billion dollars in supporting it. Eventually the format lost the war. Great business plan

I just love how pixie devalues BR into nothing more than a fancy DVD player with new software. How does one know this if they don't own one? Here is a person who is an expert on everything he never owned. Jeeze, I'll take his word for it

He says nobody is willing to pay $400 for a toy. Well, they are selling quite well, can't keep any in stock anywhere. Panasonics new player(priced at $599) has already sold out their first shipment. So if nobody is buying them, and they are being shipped, were are they going? Are the little mice from Ratatouille taking them?

When Pixie says an image is fantastic from VOD, know that it probably looks like trash. Anyone who does not calibrate their display, and watches movies in bright light has no idea what a good picture is.

How does a person with a uncalibrated television, and who has never own a single BR disc, a single BR player make a determination on the quality of the format? Sure, he knows everything, I'll take his word for it. Riiiight

I do not think ANYONE in the bluray camp is worried about a pixietightwad not buying a player. I am sure the format will go on just fine if he doesn't.

I am really glad the BDA ISN'T listening to pixiea$$. If they did, the market for bluray players and disc would have been like the market for HD DVD. Decimated!

[filecat13]

The future of Blu-ray, like any consumer product is of no direct concern to me. The product will either produce revenue that satisfies these who produce and sell it, or it won't. If it establishes a sustainable market of hardware and software, and if it produces experiences I'm interested in (at this point BR Audio) at prices that entice me, I'll join in; if not, it's fine with me if others find pleasure in the BR experience.

I do not think that the Harris results "bash" Blu-ray, so it's probably a bit dramatic to phrase it that way. The survey measures some things and doesn't measure others. It may be pop culture analysis more than pure research; however, it does not strike me as a hit piece.

Honestly, I'm not sure why we care so much about any product's success or failure. The market will decide. For every failure, there is always another attempt, another new product, another plan to open or exploit a market.

That's business. If a large corporation can't make something work, a small niche company often can. Or sometimes, the market just doesn't have the desire and the product/category goes away, only to be replaced by a different product with a different angle.

"Here's to the new boss, same as the old boss; we won't get fooled again."

[pixelthis]

Yeah Pixie, the players price was so reasonable that the company lost nearly one billion dollars in supporting it. Eventually the format lost the war. Great business plan

IT was, in fact it had me thinking about buying a HD.
Two things pushed me away, the lousey track record I had with tosh products, and the fact that everybody on the PLANET had already chosen Blu.
If the "format war" had even been close I MIGHT HAVE VERY WELL GONE hd

I just love how pixie devalues BR into nothing more than a fancy DVD player with new software. How does one know this if they don't own one? Here is a person who is an expert on everything he never owned. Jeeze, I'll take his word for it

I never owned a front projector but studied them for years.
AND THE people who work on jet airplanes usually dont have a 767 parked in the garage.
DVD players are CD players with a shorter wavelenght laser and a different feature set.
Blu has lasers with an even shorter wavelenght, which was quite an acomplishment.
But the mechanism that blu uses isnt that much different from a DVD player.
Couldnt be, beCAUSE it plays DVDs.
You think people havent figured this out?

He says nobody is willing to pay $400 for a toy. Well, they are selling quite well, can't keep any in stock anywhere. Panasonics new player(priced at $599) has already sold out their first shipment. So if nobody is buying them, and they are being shipped, were are they going? Are the little mice from Ratatouille taking them?

Sell a caddy for a million bucks and someone is going to be nuts enough to buy one.
So its raining but can the rain support the crops.
BLU is selling sure, but are they selling enough?

When Pixie says an image is fantastic from VOD, know that it probably looks like trash. Anyone who does not calibrate their display, and watches movies in bright light has no idea what a good picture is.

I watch a movie in dim light, usually, but its nice to have the option of not having to do so, a option your obsolete system doesnt give you.
And a set that isnt as finicky as a CRT dinosaur doesnt require that much calibration,
YOU ARE LIKE THE GUY WITH A carburetor who doesnt understand why a guy with fuel injection can go so long without a tune up.
AND what does this have tro do with blu ray?

How does a person with a uncalibrated television, and who has never own a single BR disc, a single BR player make a determination on the quality of the format? Sure, he knows everything, I'll take his word for it. Riiiight

THANK YOU.
A blu player is very good, in fact I will buy one sometime(maybe)
But only because I like to collect movies.
If I just watched, VOD would be fine.
What the BDA and teh clueless types who populate it dont seem to GET
is that the paradigm has changed.
This isnt the age of videotape, where VHS "won" and beta was vanquished.
A hard copy disc format is for one market...COLLECTORS.
And while BLU HAS a small window to become established , its a very small window

I do not think ANYONE in the bluray camp is worried about a pixietightwad not buying a player. I am sure the format will go on just fine if he doesn't.

Undoubtedly, but the point is that in spite of what you say I am a quality FREAK,
and have the closet full of laserdiscs to prove it.
and the fact that I am in NO hurry to run out and grab a blu ray player might not concern you but it does concern those who know me, because they think that if I am in no hurry, why should they be?
One would be nice, but instead I am going to buy discs, and that way I will have a rather large collection when players become reasonably priced.
I have been a pioneer plenty of times on new formats (S-VHS, VHS-HIFI, LASERDISC, ETC) and have the arrows in my back to prove it.
No arrows this time

I am really glad the BDA ISN'T listening to pixiea$$. If they did, the market for bluray players and disc would have been like the market for HD DVD. Decimated!

NO, they are listening to nattering know-nothings such as yourself, who are encourgaging
them to go with Apples business model, which conseded the world to the much more inferiour windows based PC.
And delivered the videotape market to VHS in spite of BETAS obvious superiority.
So it looks like Sony is going to repeat the same monumental mistake in a thirty
five year span.
Botique players when most want a basic movie machine.
players are nothing you give those away, you will make a few bucks on teh first ones but eventually economies of scale will drive profit margins razor thin.
SOFTWARE is where the real money is, you need players in peoples hands to sell it tho.
And at 400 bucks in a recession that is really a depression you arent gonna put that many out there

[Mr Peabody]

Pix your analogy falls a bit short, a therapist may be able to tell a couple how to have sex based on what the therapist reads in a book but if this therapist was a virgin they'd lack a bit of insight i'd say. If you had a BR player and watched a couple movies through your TV and didn't think it looked or sounded better than VOD then your argument would hold more water. If you don't care, then you don't care and should really stay out of discussions on whether it succeeds or how it compares to another source. I personally don't care if you and Sir T banter, it's sometimes entertaining and sometimes good points are actually brought out. I also know from experience you NEVER change your mind even when you are over whelmingly proved wrong. I also empathize because it is more than frustrating to me when those who lack equipment and knowledge jump on the band wagon of diminishing returns or attributes of better cables. Knowledge is a good thing but it's much better tempered with some experience.

[pixelthis]

Pix your analogy falls a bit short, a therapist may be able to tell a couple how to have sex based on what the therapist reads in a book but if this therapist was a virgin they'd lack a bit of insight i'd say. If you had a BR player and watched a couple movies through your TV and didn't think it looked or sounded better than VOD then your argument would hold more water. If you don't care, then you don't care and should really stay out of discussions on whether it succeeds or how it compares to another source. I personally don't care if you and Sir T banter, it's sometimes entertaining and sometimes good points are actually brought out. I also know from experience you NEVER change your mind even when you are over whelmingly proved wrong. I also empathize because it is more than frustrating to me when those who lack equipment and knowledge jump on the band wagon of diminishing returns or attributes of better cables. Knowledge is a good thing but it's much better tempered with some experience.

where to start?
First off you're therapist deal is totally whack.
DR Spock (the baby doctor, not the science officer) was considered the preemminent
expert on raising children.
Didnt matter that he never had any.
THE ENGINEERS, TECHS, who bravely brought home Apollo 13, turning a disaster into a triump, how many actually flew an apollo space craft?
And I could go on and on.
As for whether or not the quality of BLU IS BETTER THAN vod, OF COURSE IT IS.
But what has that to do with the price of eggs?
You want "experience"?
Well, lets see, the conversation goes like this.
"Oh, your picture looks really great, what is that? A Laserdisc? Nice.
A SVHS player,recorder? NICE"
And then they go home and watch their Emerson VCR on their 25"Magnavox console TV.
VOD doesnt measure up to BLU IF...
You have a 1080p TV(half dont even have HDTV)
Otherwise the conversations in stores of people watching demos goes,
"So thats the new DVD player, whats the difference"?
The hardest thing for people in this hobby to get their brains around is a simple fact,
most of the market arent discerning buyers, quality freaks, most watch TV on SD tv SETS and some complain to the powers that be about having to "switch" in 2009".
I am constantly bringing this up because people keep forgetting it.
BUT the truth is that the sooner that blu becomes a mass market product, the better for all of us.
I like HIGHQ myself, but for casual watching VOD is fine, this is the case for most people.
I have gone down the road to the point that DVD just doesnt cut it anymore, but HD on VOD ISNT THAT BAD, AND FOR THOSE WITHOUT hd (half) DVD is fine.
if I GET A bLU PLAYER NOW, then I will get discs, and I can barely afford the player,
and they arent quite ready for primetime anyway.
But I have watched them , know they are a quality product.
But you have to allocate resources, and VOD is fine right now.
It seems that some on this board are rather well insulated.
Well, let me explain it to you.
People are stuck with SUV'S, cant make the payments, or afford gas, and NOBODY wants em. Try to trade one in.
And people are losing their houses, food prices are sky high.
In other words this is a terrible time to launch a new format that to a lot is a fifth wheel anyway.
And if they dont start cutting player prices then say hello to the laserdisc of the future, BLU-RAY.
Seen it happen before, will see it again.
I wanted Blu to "win" the format war, because I want a nice format to collect movies in.
But if people dont buy the things in a lot higher quanties than they are now it
WILL fail, Sony, like the dinosaur chewing his cud and calmly watching the asteroid hit,
doesnt seem to understand that the paradigm has changed, the world is wired.
I remember when the video stores started springing up, now they are in trouble,
and NETFLIX, WHICH IS ALREADY KICKING THEIR BUTT, WILL HAVE A 99$ MOVIE MACHINE SOON.
Thats what people will buy if the buy anything its three hundred dollars cheaper than a blu player!
People just need a reality check on this board is all I AM SAYING.
What the mass market does affects us perfectionists, whether we want it to or NOT

[filecat13]

Well, geez, I hate to rain on everyone's parade, but predicting the future is a pretty dicey enterprise. Some might say it's a fool's game.

Whether it's Ken Pohlman, pixelthis, Sir Terence, Mr. Peabody, Harris Interactive, NPD, or me, it's all just a mixture of past experience, conjecture, and smoke blowing.

Our local weather persons (are any of them actually meteorologists? maybe one or two) attempt to predict down to the % how much the chances of rain are. Yet with all their past experience with weather patterns and local conditions, with the conjecture they can glean from the sophisticated machines that give them effing pictures and graphs and data to use, and with all their assured posturing on TV, of the ten times they predicted 70% or higher chances of rain, only four panned out. Of the five times they predicted less that 20% chances of rain, it rained area-wide twice. And four times it rained when there was no prediction of rain of any kind.

So you can't accept my analogy because you think there's no logical connection between these two like conditions? Fine. How about we check the Wii forecasts from the past?

Predictions for the Wii's failure were abundant. Polls "conclusively demonstrated" that consumers wanted HD output, that they wanted significantly higher polygonal output from the processor, that they wanted gamepad-style controllers, that they wanted sophisticated games with violent/mature/fantasy storylines, that they were not interested in a toy, that they had moved on to XBox and PS3 land, that they wanted a BR or DV DVD drive in it, and that Nintendo had signed its own death warrant by staking its future on the underpowered, underperforming, too simplistic, and too different Wii.

At best the Wii would be a distant, third-place also-ran, and at worst, the company was doomed. DOOMED I tell you. Except it surpassed the PS3 in sales in July and the XBox in September of last year.

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3162770

So the thing about polls and predictions is that they shouldn't be trusted too far, regardless of who makes them.

Gather your closest ten friends, look them in the eye, and poll them on this question. "If I experienced massive kidney failure and were going to die, if you were a match would you give me a kidney if it meant saving my life?" Six of the ten might say, "Sure, you bet. I would. No question."

Now fast forward two years and suddenly your life hangs in the balance for want of a kidney. How many of the six would still answer yes? How many would say there are special conditions that keep them from doing it? How many would pray that they would not be a match? How many would have an excuse that a spouse or child or parent begged them not to do it?

Well, you'd only need ONE to actually do it for you to survive, so the poll be damned. It's what people actually do, not what they say they'll do, that matters.*

I still think downloads will become the dominant means of all media delivery within five years.** Others think its ten or maybe even twelve years away. None of us knows, if we're being honest; we're just making predictions based on past experience, conjecture, and a bit of smoke blowing. I'll admit smoke blowing is fun. What do I really care if I'm wrong?

In either case, I don't think it matters for the survival of BR. BR just needs enough people to support it for it to be profitable enough to survive.


* I'm not a Christian, but this seems germane. People don't always do what you think they will (or what they say).

Matthew 21:28-31"What do you think? A man had two sons; he went to the first and said, ‘Son, go and work in the vineyard today.’ He answered, ‘I will not’; but later he changed his mind and went. The father went to the second and said the same; and he answered, ‘I go, sir’; but he did not go. Which of the two did the will of his father?"

**I stated in another thread I'll buy two forum members beers if it doesn't happen. I've got 4.5 years to go. You boys can start licking your lips.

[Mr Peabody]

Downloading and increased VOD is on it's way. How much market it gets and how effective will yet to be seen. If you haven't yet, you may want to read the article I posted on News & Rumors, Have you seen what the cable companies are doing lately, or something like that. The cable companies are working on standardizing their systems and equipment. Panasonic and a couple other manufacturers are coming out with TV's that have the cable box built in so you can have interactivity without renting a box. Cables big hurdle is updating their infrastructure and not everyone having access. It will take a long time getting fiber optics in place. Same with downloading, it will take some time to get a faster internet with more bandwidth. Although I did hear a buzz about cable coming out with a faster broadband connection, I'm talking faster than has ever been available before.

[filecat13]

A lot will depend on who wins the presidential election. McCain and Obama have significantly different ideas about net neutrality and high speed access for all. Clinton's position is unclear to me.

Imagine even 10% of the money being spent on Iraq being spent here at home on publicly-funded infrastructure build out.

[Mr Peabody]

A lot will depend on who wins the presidential election. McCain and Obama have significantly different ideas about net neutrality and high speed access for all. Clinton's position is unclear to me.

Imagine even 10% of the money being spent on Iraq being spent here at home on publicly-funded infrastructure build out.

You said it. And imagine what that could have done for our education system. I heard the U.S. don't even compete in the international math contest anymore. I some how missed McCain and Obama's views on the internet. I'd think Obama being a democrat was more supportive since Al invented it