Blu ray is doing well even during the slow season

[Woochifer]

As for this, they are both ''apples'' if you can't tell the difference between VHS and DVD.

The main reasons people upgraded from VHS are 1. size 2. ease of use 3 much better quality.

People also upgraded because VHS was subsidized by a two-tiered pricing structure that generated far more revenue per copy. The DVD used a variation of the old Laserdisc pricing structure, which was designed for sell-through. Once the DVD prices began dipping below $30, the market fundamentally shifted because VHS tapes typically carried list prices of ~$80 to $100 during the initial release window.

Now let's compare DVDs vs Blu Ray ones again:

1. They are exactly the same in (physical) size.

2. They are equally easy to use...oh wait, Blu Ray can't be coppied and they take longer to load, Blu Ray laser life is even shorter than that of DVD, CD playback is rubbish too ..but let's still say they are the same.

3. And finally, the only advantage Blu Ray has over DVD is higher quality, which is only noticeably better if your screen size is 30-32in and above. Now then, there millions of people who don't have big screens, millions who don't have upscaling TVs yet, let alone 50inch plasmas. Will they buy Blu Ray? Or would they be happy with 1080i/1080p?

The point that you're ignoring is that VHS got phased out when there were still more VCRs than DVD players installed. The studios and retailers will follow the where the demand and the revenue potential are going. Right now, those trends are decidedly shifting towards Blu-ray.

You can point out reasons why Blu-ray is not worth the upgrade, but if the market trends continue in the direction that they have gone, none of them will matter. Also, you points in #2 are issues that have nothing to do with the format itself (i.e., loading times will vary by model and also depend on how the disc was authored, CD playback has nothing to do with the Blu-ray format, etc.).

We're probably less than two years away, if not one year away, from Blu-ray players reaching price parity with DVD players. At that point, anyone buying a video player will be buying Blu-ray. We're already at a point where the average TV screen sizes have gone above 40" and nearly all of the TVs now sold are HD. Household penetration of HDTV is now above 60% and is on track to reach 80% sometime next year.

I think they would be, but they will be forced to buy Blu Ray if a particular film is only available in the new format. And since many companies have invested so much in the new design they will be pushing their new product further.

And that's exactly the same thing that happened to VHS once the DVD took over the market lead.

The way I see it is that Sony, Panasonic, LG, etc are happy with their new product; film companies are happy because of the advanced copy protection, and consumers are happy because they have the latest toy on the market and can laugh at those unfortunate ones who are still using DVDs. But what about people who don't want to, or have no reason to upgrade?

This is how the consumer electronics market has always functioned. They are constantly in a race to develop new devices that consumers want, before their older formats become commodified low margin products. And the studios are always looking for new markets to resell their catalog titles.

Retailers, manufacturers, and content providers have no obligation to indefinitely support formats that consumers have largely abandoned, and are more apt to finding reasons to pull the plug. It has nothing to do with laughing at the "unfortunate ones" still using an older format. By the time the DVD or any format reaches minority status, the successor is no longer some "latest toy" -- it's now the standard. And as with any standard, you can choose to go along with it, or make do with what you have.