Blu ray is doing well even during the slow season

[klif570]

Its not the disc, its the format that Wooch is commenting on.

Exactly my point - DVDs are discs, VHS are cassettes - two totally different mediums being compated. Of course no one wanted VHS when people could have the convenience of watching DVDs.

Now, DVDs and Blu-ray are exactly the same apart from quality.

If you like, Video CD and DVD is a much fairer comparison.

Of course DVDs will come to an end at one point, but not the same way VHS did.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Exactly my point - DVDs are discs, VHS are cassettes - two totally different mediums being compated. Of course no one wanted VHS when people could have the convenience of watching DVDs.

Now, DVDs and Blu-ray are exactly the same apart from quality.

If you like, Video CD and DVD is a much fairer comparison.

Of course DVDs will come to an end at one point, but not the same way VHS did.

There is a long history of product introduction, and product sunset that supports the notion that DVD will disappear just like VHS did. First it starts with a newer better product being introduced. Then there is a period of co-existence where the new and the old get the same support. After a time, you see the extra content dropped from the older product as sales slide downwards, and the new product sales trend upward. Then the manufacturing support for the older product dries up as profits slide, and eventually the product is dropped. We already have two manufacturers who have or will stop making DVD players. We are already seeing extra content on Blu ray not found on DVD. All consumer product introduced in the last 40 years has undergone this type of lifespan. Cassettes to CD, VHS and Laserdisc to DVD, and now DVD to Blu ray.

VHS and DVD are both carriers of movies even if the technology was different. Whether it was on tape, or on a disc, they both carried movies to your house. They are both video formats, so it is quite a apple to apples comparison.

[klif570]

There is a long history of product introduction, and product sunset that supports the notion that DVD will disappear just like VHS did. First it starts with a newer better product being introduced. Then there is a period of co-existence where the new and the old get the same support. After a time, you see the extra content dropped from the older product as sales slide downwards, and the new product sales trend upward. Then the manufacturing support for the older product dries up as profits slide, and eventually the product is dropped. We already have two manufacturers who have or will stop making DVD players. We are already seeing extra content on Blu ray not found on DVD. All consumer product introduced in the last 40 years has undergone this type of lifespan. Cassettes to CD, VHS and Laserdisc to DVD, and now DVD to Blu ray.

In short, it'll get replaced by the new technology, like everything else. When the time comes.

VHS and DVD are both carriers of movies even if the technology was different. Whether it was on tape, or on a disc, they both carried movies to your house. They are both video formats, so it is quite a apple to apples comparison.

As for this, they are both ''apples'' if you can't tell the difference between VHS and DVD.

The main reasons people upgraded from VHS are 1. size 2. ease of use 3 much better quality.

Now let's compare DVDs vs Blu Ray ones again:

1. They are exactly the same in (physical) size.

2. They are equally easy to use...oh wait, Blu Ray can't be coppied and they take longer to load, Blu Ray laser life is even shorter than that of DVD, CD playback is rubbish too ..but let's still say they are the same.

3. And finally, the only advantage Blu Ray has over DVD is higher quality, which is only noticeably better if your screen size is 30-32in and above. Now then, there millions of people who don't have big screens, millions who don't have upscaling TVs yet, let alone 50inch plasmas. Will they buy Blu Ray? Or would they be happy with 1080i/1080p?

I think they would be, but they will be forced to buy Blu Ray if a particular film is only available in the new format. And since many companies have invested so much in the new design they will be pushing their new product further.

The way I see it is that Sony, Panasonic, LG, etc are happy with their new product; film companies are happy because of the advanced copy protection, and consumers are happy because they have the latest toy on the market and can laugh at those unfortunate ones who are still using DVDs. But what about people who don't want to, or have no reason to upgrade?

[Smokey]

Klif570, you are making the same argument as I did in this thread (post # 53) couple of months back:

DVDis dead!

I think we all agree that DVD will eventually be phased out. The sticky point seem to be the time frame this will happen. I agree with you that Blu and DVD will coexist toghether at least in the short run, and looking at sale price of discs from each format point to that direction.

For example, Bestbuy and Walmart now reguraly have Bluray discs on sale for $10 and DVD for $5 where DVD cover titles that are not yet available on Bluray.

[klif570]

Klif570, you are making the same argument as I did in this thread (post # 53) couple of months back:

DVDis dead!

I think we all agree that DVD will eventually be phased out. The sticky point seem to be the time frame this will happen. I agree with you that Blu and DVD will coexist toghether at least in the short run, and looking at sale price of discs from each format point to that direction.

For example, Bestbuy and Walmart now reguraly have Bluray discs on sale for $10 and DVD for $5 where DVD cover titles that are not yet available on Bluray.

Thanks for the link, Smokey. Nice to see someone on the same brain-wave length.

Perhaps there is a wider selection of Blu Ray discs in the US, but when I go and check local stores in the UK, I see one shelf of Blu Ray discs and the whole aisle of DVDs.. and if I want a particular film, it's somehow magically been released on DVD and not Blu Ray.

I'm more than happy with the DVD quality, which upscaled to 1080p on a normal size display look nearly identical, but yes, at one point people will have to upgrade anyway. Hollywood never has been happier with the new Blu Ray copy protection and the major companies like Sony have found something new to sell.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Thanks for the link, Smokey. Nice to see someone on the same brain-wave length.

Smoke comes from a different perspective than Wooch and I. My pal does not have a Blu ray player yet(get on the ball Smoke!!!)

Perhaps there is a wider selection of Blu Ray discs in the US, but when I go and check local stores in the UK, I see one shelf of Blu Ray discs and the whole aisle of DVDs.. and if I want a particular film, it's somehow magically been released on DVD and not Blu Ray.

There is a wider selection of titles here than in the UK and all of Europe. Japan even has a larger choice of titles than you guys do. Personally, I have never purchased a title at a brick and motar store, they are too expensive. I go to Amazon, which seems to have every title released in the Blu ray format.

I'm more than happy with the DVD quality, which upscaled to 1080p on a normal size display look nearly identical, but yes, at one point people will have to upgrade anyway. Hollywood never has been happier with the new Blu Ray copy protection and the major companies like Sony have found something new to sell.

And don't forget, the consumer is now seeing resolution that is equal to projected 35mm film, and getting audio as close to the master as we have ever been. Everyone wins here, not just Sony and Hollywood.

As far as another disc replacing Blu ray...it ain't going to happen. No disc format for movies becomes successful anywhere without the blessing of the Hollywood studios. They own the content. I can tell you this right now, we are not going to another disc format ever. Down the line, it is digital delivery via the internet, but that is quite a few years down the road. It will take quite a few years for the infrastructure of the internet to get big enough to take the huge bandwidth demands of digital delivery. Another uptick in resolution is not too far away, and Blu ray can support that as well. That would be 4K video. There is already a Blu ray disc capable of being played in every Blu ray player in the field that is 100GB, more than enough capacity with AVC to encode to that resolution. After that, perhaps the internet will be ready for digital delivery. I can say this with much certainty, there is not going to be another new disc format after Blu ray. There is still to much exploration of the Blu ray capacity in respect to its specification to even think about it.

[kevlarus]

Perhaps there is a wider selection of Blu Ray discs in the US, but when I go and check local stores in the UK, I see one shelf of Blu Ray discs and the whole aisle of DVDs.. and if I want a particular film, it's somehow magically been released on DVD and not Blu Ray.

Maybe you should look at amazon.com / amazon.co.uk more closely. Amazon UK actually has more blu-ray titles available (4500+ english) and in the US (around 3600 english).

It will save you a trip to the local brick & mortar at least.

[Woochifer]

As for this, they are both ''apples'' if you can't tell the difference between VHS and DVD.

The main reasons people upgraded from VHS are 1. size 2. ease of use 3 much better quality.

People also upgraded because VHS was subsidized by a two-tiered pricing structure that generated far more revenue per copy. The DVD used a variation of the old Laserdisc pricing structure, which was designed for sell-through. Once the DVD prices began dipping below $30, the market fundamentally shifted because VHS tapes typically carried list prices of ~$80 to $100 during the initial release window.

Now let's compare DVDs vs Blu Ray ones again:

1. They are exactly the same in (physical) size.

2. They are equally easy to use...oh wait, Blu Ray can't be coppied and they take longer to load, Blu Ray laser life is even shorter than that of DVD, CD playback is rubbish too ..but let's still say they are the same.

3. And finally, the only advantage Blu Ray has over DVD is higher quality, which is only noticeably better if your screen size is 30-32in and above. Now then, there millions of people who don't have big screens, millions who don't have upscaling TVs yet, let alone 50inch plasmas. Will they buy Blu Ray? Or would they be happy with 1080i/1080p?

The point that you're ignoring is that VHS got phased out when there were still more VCRs than DVD players installed. The studios and retailers will follow the where the demand and the revenue potential are going. Right now, those trends are decidedly shifting towards Blu-ray.

You can point out reasons why Blu-ray is not worth the upgrade, but if the market trends continue in the direction that they have gone, none of them will matter. Also, you points in #2 are issues that have nothing to do with the format itself (i.e., loading times will vary by model and also depend on how the disc was authored, CD playback has nothing to do with the Blu-ray format, etc.).

We're probably less than two years away, if not one year away, from Blu-ray players reaching price parity with DVD players. At that point, anyone buying a video player will be buying Blu-ray. We're already at a point where the average TV screen sizes have gone above 40" and nearly all of the TVs now sold are HD. Household penetration of HDTV is now above 60% and is on track to reach 80% sometime next year.

I think they would be, but they will be forced to buy Blu Ray if a particular film is only available in the new format. And since many companies have invested so much in the new design they will be pushing their new product further.

And that's exactly the same thing that happened to VHS once the DVD took over the market lead.

The way I see it is that Sony, Panasonic, LG, etc are happy with their new product; film companies are happy because of the advanced copy protection, and consumers are happy because they have the latest toy on the market and can laugh at those unfortunate ones who are still using DVDs. But what about people who don't want to, or have no reason to upgrade?

This is how the consumer electronics market has always functioned. They are constantly in a race to develop new devices that consumers want, before their older formats become commodified low margin products. And the studios are always looking for new markets to resell their catalog titles.

Retailers, manufacturers, and content providers have no obligation to indefinitely support formats that consumers have largely abandoned, and are more apt to finding reasons to pull the plug. It has nothing to do with laughing at the "unfortunate ones" still using an older format. By the time the DVD or any format reaches minority status, the successor is no longer some "latest toy" -- it's now the standard. And as with any standard, you can choose to go along with it, or make do with what you have.

[klif570]

Also, you points in #2 are issues that have nothing to do with the format itself (i.e., loading times will vary by model and also depend on how the disc was authored, CD playback has nothing to do with the Blu-ray format, etc.).

No, not the format itself, but I was saying that Blu Ray players are still inferior to many DVD players. But I can excuse this since Blu Ray is a new technology.

We're already at a point where the average TV screen sizes have gone above 40" and nearly all of the TVs now sold are HD. Household penetration of HDTV is now above 60% and is on track to reach 80% sometime next year.

Most TVs are HD, yes, but the average size being above 40"? Okay.. whoever did this survey is either far from reality or simply ignored the middle and lower class.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

No, not the format itself, but I was saying that Blu Ray players are still inferior to many DVD players. But I can excuse this since Blu Ray is a new technology.

Sorry man, but this is incorrect upon closer look. There is no DVD player that has the capacity to pass 60 mbps worth of video information, and 20 mbps for audio...ZERO. Every Blu ray player must be able to do that, from the most expensive, to the cheapo players. There are ZERO DVD players out there that can pass 8 channels of 24/192khz audio, but every Blu ray player must from the top of the line, down to the cheapo model must be able to, it is part of the specification for Blu ray.

Most TVs are HD, yes, but the average size being above 40"? Okay.. whoever did this survey is either far from reality or simply ignored the middle and lower class.

He is right when it comes to America. In the UK and pretty much all of Europe, the average screen sizes are from between 30-42". Here is the US, the average screen sizes where the most sales are stand from 40-55", with the top creeping to 60" in some cases. The smallest set in my house is 52", and the largest is a projection screen of 130". All of my displays are between these sizes. My best friend who almost never watches television has a 52" set. Everyone I know here has at least a 42" model. Just by looking in your audio and video magazines, it is apparent that screen sizes in Europe that are hot sellers are far smaller than the top selling models here.

[klif570]

Sorry man, but this is incorrect upon closer look. There is no DVD player that has the capacity to pass 60 mbps worth of video information, and 20 mbps for audio...ZERO. Every Blu ray player must be able to do that, from the most expensive, to the cheapo players. There are ZERO DVD players out there that can pass 8 channels of 24/192khz audio, but every Blu ray player must from the top of the line, down to the cheapo model must be able to, it is part of the specification for Blu ray.

Haha, well obviously you can turn it round any way you like.. Blu-Ray players can play Blu Ray discs..wow! No one said they can't pass 60mbps.. what I said was that with poor loading times, poor CD quality playback, and may I add, firmware issues, they are inferior to DVD players. Simple

He is right when it comes to America. In the UK and pretty much all of Europe, the average screen sizes are from between 30-42". Here is the US, the average screen sizes where the most sales are stand from 40-55", with the top creeping to 60" in some cases. The smallest set in my house is 52", and the largest is a projection screen of 130". All of my displays are between these sizes. My best friend who almost never watches television has a 52" set. Everyone I know here has at least a 42" model. Just by looking in your audio and video magazines, it is apparent that screen sizes in Europe that are hot sellers are far smaller than the top selling models here.

Probably does make sense when I take into account that around 15% people in the US are below povery line, they probably don't even have TVs. Most of the rest is the '' I'm better than you'' type and buy as large as they can.. even if they almost never use it..like your friend. Did you suggest he buys Blu Ray already?

Smoke comes from a different perspective than Wooch and I. My pal does not have a Blu ray player yet(get on the ball Smoke!!!)

Exactly what a Blu Ray fanboy would say.

And don't forget, the consumer is now seeing resolution that is equal to projected 35mm film, and getting audio as close to the master as we have ever been. Everyone wins here, not just Sony and Hollywood.

Sounds very good indeed. But I don't need to watch a TV show and see everyones pores on screen, thank you very much. I do agree however that sci-fi and live recordings are nice in the new format, which I won't be able to copy for my dear friends..ahhh.

I can tell you this right now, we are not going to another disc format ever.

Another fanboy thing. Same what people said when DVDs came along..