Blu ray is doing well even during the slow season

[Woochifer]

Those are very surprising numbers for the Blu-ray share of total sales, given that the biggest percentages I'd seen before the holidays were still in the high-30% range. Also, the Nielson Videoscan YTD Blu-ray market split was still below 20% for the overall market, as of January.

This seems to indicate that at least for the big blockbuster movies, Blu-ray has made huge inroads. No doubt this trend benefited from the big disc price reductions on those new release titles during November and December, and the brisk sales of Blu-ray players and HDTVs during the holiday season. I have noticed that BD prices on new releases have gone back up for many titles, but you also have a larger selection of older catalog titles with reduced pricing.

Also, I think that the BD-DVD-Digital Copy combo packs have had at least some market impact. I see that with Disney titles, the digital copy codes can now be used to also access those titles online. Very smart approach.

I agree that Blu-ray is no longer a niche product, and that has been the case for probably more than a year. I think the big picture question now is how much longer the DVD format will remain viable.

My understanding is that sales of Blu-ray players surpassed those of DVD players almost a year ago. Now, you have higher end manufacturers like Oppo and Denon phasing out their DVD players. With Blu-ray price points on course to dip below $100 by the end of the year, mainline manufacturers will have little reason to continue making standalone DVD players once the price points get that close.

With the DVD format, the hardware sales for DVD players surpassed VCRs about two years before the DVD sales surpassed VHS tapes. And once that happened, it took about three years before the studios discontinued VHS releases. Understanding that the VHS and DVD pricing structures were completely different, and the situation with Blu-ray differs because BD players can also play DVDs, it would seem that the DVD format has about 4 or 5 years of viability left, if past trends serve as an accurate indicator.

[klif570]

I bet DVDs are here to stay - they're cheap to make, they're cheap to buy, and there's hundreds of thousands of films available in this format. DVD players however might become obsolete, but since Blue Ray spinners can play DVDs, the both formats will be just as widespread. I think it's quite logical, really..

[Woochifer]

I bet DVDs are here to stay - they're cheap to make, they're cheap to buy, and there's hundreds of thousands of films available in this format. DVD players however might become obsolete, but since Blue Ray spinners can play DVDs, the both formats will be just as widespread. I think it's quite logical, really..

I wouldn't bet on that. The key here is the year-to-year growth of the Blu-ray format, which has been about doubling every year. Studios and retailers alike do not like dual inventories. Once the DVD format reached majority status in 2003 (roughly two years after DVD player sales surpassed VCR sales), VHS got phased out very quickly even though more consumers at that point owned VCRs than DVD players. It was a forced migration, and the studios and retailers wanted that because there's little money to be made for anybody in supporting a rapidly declining format. I see a similar scenario playing out for the DVD format.

Those "hundreds of thousands of films available" (actual number is around 110,000) are the exact reason why the DVD will get phased out at some point. Consumers who want them have already bought them, which effectively caps the market demand for catalog titles on DVD, leaving new releases as the primary market. Yet for new releases, the trend has moved decidedly towards Blu-ray, and catalog titles are now the fastest growing segment for Blu-ray sales. The cut rate prices you see on DVD catalog titles are more a sign of weakening market demand than anything.

[klif570]

I wouldn't bet on that. The key here is the year-to-year growth of the Blu-ray format, which has been about doubling every year. Studios and retailers alike do not like dual inventories. Once the DVD format reached majority status in 2003 (roughly two years after DVD player sales surpassed VCR sales), VHS got phased out very quickly even though more consumers at that point owned VCRs than DVD players. It was a forced migration, and the studios and retailers wanted that because there's little money to be made for anybody in supporting a rapidly declining format. I see a similar scenario playing out for the DVD format.

Those "hundreds of thousands of films available" (actual number is around 110,000) are the exact reason why the DVD will get phased out at some point. Consumers who want them have already bought them, which effectively caps the market demand for catalog titles on DVD, leaving new releases as the primary market. Yet for new releases, the trend has moved decidedly towards Blu-ray, and catalog titles are now the fastest growing segment for Blu-ray sales. The cut rate prices you see on DVD catalog titles are more a sign of weakening market demand than anything.

I see what you're saying, but I don't think VHS and DVD is a fair comparison. VHS is not even a disc, it's inconvenient to use, it's bulky, it's unattractive. DVD and Blu Ray are exactly the same apart from Blu Ray being higher quality. I see it more like SACD vs CD

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I see what you're saying, but I don't think VHS and DVD is a fair comparison. VHS is not even a disc, it's inconvenient to use, it's bulky, it's unattractive. DVD and Blu Ray are exactly the same apart from Blu Ray being higher quality. I see it more like SACD vs CD

Its not the disc, its the format that Wooch is commenting on. VHS was bulky, but people found a way to store them. When DVD came, THEN the hassle of storage became an issue when compared to those thin disc. Now DVD has matured, sales are slowing, nobody is making much money from it, and it is not secure, so it is a persistant target for piracy. Everyone wants it to go away, the studios, the retailers, and the manufacturers.

[klif570]

Its not the disc, its the format that Wooch is commenting on.

Exactly my point - DVDs are discs, VHS are cassettes - two totally different mediums being compated. Of course no one wanted VHS when people could have the convenience of watching DVDs.

Now, DVDs and Blu-ray are exactly the same apart from quality.

If you like, Video CD and DVD is a much fairer comparison.

Of course DVDs will come to an end at one point, but not the same way VHS did.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Exactly my point - DVDs are discs, VHS are cassettes - two totally different mediums being compated. Of course no one wanted VHS when people could have the convenience of watching DVDs.

Now, DVDs and Blu-ray are exactly the same apart from quality.

If you like, Video CD and DVD is a much fairer comparison.

Of course DVDs will come to an end at one point, but not the same way VHS did.

There is a long history of product introduction, and product sunset that supports the notion that DVD will disappear just like VHS did. First it starts with a newer better product being introduced. Then there is a period of co-existence where the new and the old get the same support. After a time, you see the extra content dropped from the older product as sales slide downwards, and the new product sales trend upward. Then the manufacturing support for the older product dries up as profits slide, and eventually the product is dropped. We already have two manufacturers who have or will stop making DVD players. We are already seeing extra content on Blu ray not found on DVD. All consumer product introduced in the last 40 years has undergone this type of lifespan. Cassettes to CD, VHS and Laserdisc to DVD, and now DVD to Blu ray.

VHS and DVD are both carriers of movies even if the technology was different. Whether it was on tape, or on a disc, they both carried movies to your house. They are both video formats, so it is quite a apple to apples comparison.

[nightflier]

Now DVD has matured, sales are slowing, nobody is making much money from it, and it is not secure, so it is a persistant target for piracy. Everyone wants it to go away, the studios, the retailers, and the manufacturers.

If piracy indeed is so prevalent, then the inability to copy BR may be its Achilles Heel. Since DVD has been cracked, and piracy doesn't seem to go away, then there will always be room for DVD and it may never completely go away... not until HD digital content matures and that is effectively cracked. Kind of ironic really.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

If piracy indeed is so prevalent, then the inability to copy BR may be its Achilles Heel. Since DVD has been cracked, and piracy doesn't seem to go away, then there will always be room for DVD and it may never completely go away... not until HD digital content matures and that is effectively cracked. Kind of ironic really.

What is ironic(but predictable) is how you can screw up a perfectly good discussion with a pile of stupidity.(a really bad habit of yours)

SACD died from lack of support from the music industry, not because it could not be copied. You cannot build a format on the backs of boutique recording companies. Sony didn't really support the format with the proper post production tools until it was too late in the game.

[Woochifer]

I see what you're saying, but I don't think VHS and DVD is a fair comparison. VHS is not even a disc, it's inconvenient to use, it's bulky, it's unattractive. DVD and Blu Ray are exactly the same apart from Blu Ray being higher quality. I see it more like SACD vs CD

Don't get overly fixated on the physical form factor. The similarity between the VHS/DVD and DVD/Blu-ray coexistence is that both situations require retailers, studios, rental outlets, mail order sites, etc. to maintain dual inventories. In these cases, the newer format is more lucrative because 1) consumers are willing to pay more for the improvements; and 2) the newer format can draw revenues from sales of catalog titles, whereas the older format increasingly relies solely on new releases.

If anything, VHS's pricing structure (which featured a two-tiered rental pricing and sell-through pricing window, along with revenue sharing agreements with the major rental chains) protected the format even with rapidly declining demand.

The DVD is now a devalued format with lower margins because consumers simply will not pay as much as they used to for a DVD. A devalued format can still justify staying in print if it can maintain a high enough volume to make up for the reduced margins, but DVD sales have been declining.

The SACD analogy does not apply because:
1) SACDs never had day-and-date releases like you see with Blu-ray
2) SACD was supported by less than half of the major record labels, whereas Blu-ray is now supported by all of the major movie studios
3) SACD was supported by only a handful of the major consumer electronics manufacturers, whereas nearly all of the major manufacturers have put out a Blu-ray player
4) Blu-ray's market share is way higher than SACD ever had

The market conditions for Blu-ray are way different.