Warner Goes Blu - will drop HD-DVD by May 2008

[Feanor]

Actually you can correlate the lack of competition to the lowering of disc prices. With just one format, developement tools for BD-j will advance much quicker. The cost of authoring will drop because it will take fewer man hours to code the disc, and that will help prices drop.
...

Beef, where were you when the DVD got its start? You seem to have forgotten that the first DVD players where $1200?. Two years later they were about $500. There was no war then. Do you remember disc prices being $35? You now can get a DVD for $14. ....

The correlation between lower production costs and lower prices is a loose one at best. It's competions that leads to price drops, not lower costs.

So on the hardware side, there will be livelier competion and price drops. But on the software side, it's not so clear -- after all, each movie or whatever that is released is unique to the publisher: there's no Spiderman vs. Spiderman competition. A quick drop in sofware prices isn't a foregone conclusion.

It didn't happen for CDs even though for most people CD was seen as a clean replacment for LPs. Ok, maybe price colusion was a problem in that case or maybe it wasn't the main thing. As for DVDs, they were such a huge improvement over tape that people see them as a clean replacement too. DVD prices dropped only after the publishers had skimmed the suckers, er, sorry, early adopters and decide more profit was to be made from volume.

When DVD came a long, all you need to get into it was a DVD player. But in the case of Blu-Ray, you also need an HDTV and they're a lot more than the players. Ergo, maybe for this reason the adoption cycle could be a lot longer than for DVD so the sucker-skimming phase will be accordingly longer.

[Woochifer]

I'm having a difficult time squaring "lack of competition" to "Lowering of disc prices". I would prefer many players in the market. I'm not particularly concerned about the pocket book of the studios involved.

Still plenty of competition in the market -- there are six major studios along with countless smaller ones producing titles and competing for your entertainment dollars. Having one HD format or two HD formats isn't going to change that equation. Plus, Blu-ray is still in competition with the DVD format, and successfully capturing market share from the DVD isn't going to happen until disc prices inevitably start falling. HD-DVD pushed hardware prices through the floor only because Toshiba was willing to lose money on its HD-DVD hardware.

I can remeber when VHS machines were the size of a coffee table, the remote was corded, and the tapes (TAPES!!!) were $100.

You're ignoring/disregarding how different the VHS pricing structure is from the DVD market.

VHS used a rental pricing structure. Most VHS movie titles, all the way until the format's demise, on the date of release carried a list price of $80 to $120 (i.e.,this is what the video store would charge you if you wanted to buy a new release or if you lost the tape), and the studios negotiated revenue sharing agreements with the larger video rental chains. Only titles with higher sell-through demand (e.g., big box office titles, Disney titles, music videos, special interest titles, etc.) were released with lower list prices. Most studio releases would get rereleased months later at lower prices for sell-through.

The DVD and Laserdisc markets have always been priced for retail sell-through. DVDs originally came out carrying the same ~$40 list prices as Laserdiscs. Only when volume picked up did the list prices come down to their current $30 (new release) and $20 (catalog title) price points. Only when retailers began using new release DVDs as loss leaders to pull shoppers into their stores did the home video market get turned upside down from a rental market into a buyer's market.

Sometimes when a ship is sinking, you may as well try and sink the other guy as well. It would be foolish to not consider personal pride, as well as a little vindictiveness to be working here. Set a price so low as to get consumers used to a $$ figure, and then let the other guy suck it up in the end.

Or in the case of Toshiba, they had a portfolio of DVD patents that they were looking to extend. I don't think they ever played this format war to win it outright -- they simply played it to run out the clock on the DVD patents and try to force the market into a dual format compromise. All they had to do was maintain a large enough market share to keep Blu-ray from claiming 100% support, and they would remain a player to be dealt with. Unfortunately for them, they had to subsidize their hardware and pay off a couple of studios just to keep their heads above water.

MS simply saw Toshiba as a convenient monkey wrench to thwart the HD optical disc market and force studios to adopt VC-1 while they went ahead with their HD downloading plans. With the studios now likely to rally behind Blu-ray, we'll see how it all plays out in the end. Personally, I think HD downloading will never replace disc media so long as they continue to adopt DRM-festooned schemes like the Xbox Live download files.

In effect, you are suggesting the BR mfgs were colluding to artificially keep prices high. If you have any documentation of this you need to forward to your nearest SEC, FBI, and Congress man. If thats the case, go Toshiba. Force prices lower.

Colluding is illegal, but so is product dumping. In the case of the DVD, you had off-brand Chinese manufacturers who were willing to dump boatloads of cheaply made product into the market. All that Blu-ray AND HD-DVD set out to do was create a new format that would include licensing terms designed to prevent off-brand outsource manufacturers from flooding the market with cheaply made hardware. Blu-ray kept their end of the bargain by being selective about who they would grant licenses to. HD-DVD was also selective, until Toshiba began negotiating with the same types of off-brand Chinese outsource manufacturers that they blamed for commodifying the DVD market, and began commodifying their own HD-DVD players.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Geez, what's with all the gloom? The complaining is just never gonna stop, is it? I've been reading at other sites and there are just hundreds and hundreds of posts of people attacking each other and fighting. It's not like they're gonna get a check at the end of the week or something(well, maybe SirT will). I knew this was going on, but never paid much attention to it. For some reason, I thought the war ending would be a good thing I just don't see the problem. No one is being forced to jump into either format.

Hey, I am not going to get a check at the end of the week, I have one more week to go!! LOLOL Seriously, I get nothing for my support of bluray. I am just like you in this area, just somebody who loves the technology, embraces it enthusiastically, and do not mind talking about its benefits. Yes my company is a member of the BDA, yes my job positions me to hear some very confidential workings of Disney in the BDA, but really, I mix soundtracks, film scores, and friggin rock and roll, jazz, classical and gospel. The only real benefit I get for this war being over is that I do not have to support two formats just to fill my library with high definition movies I want.

Now when Universal goes blu, I will benefit directly. I get all of those review copies to keep after I review just like I do from MGM now. I drool at the prospect of reviewing JP1,2 and 3 in high def. Call me a cheap hi def whore if you wanna!

You get one red chicklet for this horrible comment. We are not pleased! LOL

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

The correlation between lower production costs and lower prices is a loose one at best. It's competions that leads to price drops, not lower costs.

So on the hardware side, there will be livelier competion and price drops. But on the software side, it's not so clear -- after all, each movie or whatever that is released is unique to the publisher: there's no Spiderman vs. Spiderman competition. A quick drop in sofware prices isn't a foregone conclusion.

It didn't happen for CDs even though for most people CD was seen as a clean replacment for LPs. Ok, maybe price colusion was a problem in that case or maybe it wasn't the main thing. As for DVDs, they were such a huge improvement over tape that people see them as a clean replacement too. DVD prices dropped only after the publishers had skimmed the suckers, er, sorry, early adopters and decide more profit was to be made from volume.

When DVD came a long, all you need to get into it was a DVD player. But in the case of Blu-Ray, you also need an HDTV and they're a lot more than the players. Ergo, maybe for this reason the adoption cycle could be a lot longer than for DVD so the sucker-skimming phase will be accordingly longer.

Feanor,
I have purchased(and been given in some cases) over 340 titles from both formats since their inception. I have watched prices go from $30-37 over a year ago, to an average of $20-25 today. We are already seeing disc prices drop faster than they did with DVD in this point in its history. Being that I know how much is cost to author and replicate the Pirates series, and can tell you right now it is alot more expensive to do than DVD was early in its history. What they are doing on the discs are alot more sophisticated than DVD. The authoring tools for HDi and BD-j are still very expensive, and programmers for both still cost alot of money. I cannot see any studio gouging customers right now. It is still early in both formats history, and cost associated with producing titles must be driven down by economies of scale. That has not happened quite yet. However, with just one format now(and truely HD DVD life is over), the studio are quite aware that lowering disc prices will be essential for mass adoption. In reality, it is just too soon to expect the costs of bluray disc to be the same as DVD's to consumers. But as more consumer buy bluray discs, that will change pretty quickly.

[bobsticks]

The correlation between lower production costs and lower prices is a loose one at best. It's competions that leads to price drops, not lower costs..

...you can't just look at the supply-side anymore. The advent of big box discount stores and Best Buy and the like has changed the nature of retail. And we are talking about retail.

Let me share my own situation and draw an analogy. I deal with pharmaceutical distribution (the legal kind). When Wal-mart, CVS, Walgreens, Meijer, and Target adopted a competitive pricing strategy on over three-hundred medications, in essence making them loss leaders, it was not necessarily when cost-to-retailer had dropped. The decision was made to target the needs of a specific demo and move toward the masses, especially appealing at a time when there are so many potential adopters. The move was pushed forward by the retailers seeking to strengthen overall market positions and acquiesced to by the manufacturers seeking to bolster lagging sales increases As an aside both sides recognized potential PR windfalls. Of course, none of this was done without careful planning on increased demands on production and supply and an effort to make a smooth transition (yeah, right).

Why would such large commercial entities work together to lower the cost to the consumer? You have to look at who benefits---most noticably the CEOs and stockholders--as it's hoped that universally that the increase in overall sales even at a lower margin will ultimately increase overall profit. That's a pretty attractive thing for those whose bonuses equal ten or twelce pairs of Apogees.

I see alot of parallels. CD is a dead format and DVD is, at best, stagnant. If the manufacturers feel that they can sell more units with marginalizd costs-to-retailer allthewhile lowering cost of production (as Terrence noted) they're gonna do it. If the retailers feel they can promote the product more effectively to sell their margin-product (for BB it's cables and warranties; Target it's canned corn and hairspray) through increased foot traffic, they're gonna do it, and they're going to pressure the manufacturers to accomodate their supply needs while expecting volume discounts.

And neither side is dumb enough not to have been doing major PR polls and testing---and it don't take a poll to open up one of these here forums and see that alot of folks stayed on the fence until the war was over...now it's time for watermellon.

At the end of the day everyone benefits from lower costs even in an artificial vacuum. What do I care if Biff gets a new set of Pings and Warren Worthington the 3rd buys a new Learjet? I got a great picture and a few audio formats outta the deal, and I'm betting that within five years BluRay will have a retail similar to that of current standard DVDs.

Now what I need you all to do is go buy some Prozac so I can get that tube preamp with the HT bypass that I want...

[pixelthis]

Did you miss the part about me having a PS3 player. BR is good to go in my home.
But I do seem to remember you saying that downloading was going to be the winner. Hmmmm...

the future is vod, and downloading as well, the only market for future disc formats is
as an item for collectors.
ALSO as far as "upconverting" it can only be so good, you cant get resolution that wasnt there to begin with, aint no such thing as a free lunch.
AND I dont wanna hear about sir t's 30,000,000 scaler with a liquid hydrogen
cooling jacket around the supercomputer section.
In the real world a DVD is basically a 480i source, looks better when its deinterlaced
to 480p, but you will only get so much outta it

[pixelthis]

...you can't just look at the supply-side anymore. The advent of big box discount stores and Best Buy and the like has changed the nature of retail. And we are talking about retail.

Let me share my own situation and draw an analogy. I deal with pharmaceutical distribution (the legal kind). When Wal-mart, CVS, Walgreens, Meijer, and Target adopted a competitive pricing strategy on over three-hundred medications, in essence making them loss leaders, it was not necessarily when cost-to-retailer had dropped. The decision was made to target the needs of a specific demo and move toward the masses, especially appealing at a time when there are so many potential adopters. The move was pushed forward by the retailers seeking to strengthen overall market positions and acquiesced to by the manufacturers seeking to bolster lagging sales increases As an aside both sides recognized potential PR windfalls. Of course, none of this was done without careful planning on increased demands on production and supply and an effort to make a smooth transition (yeah, right).

Why would such large commercial entities work together to lower the cost to the consumer? You have to look at who benefits---most noticably the CEOs and stockholders--as it's hoped that universally that the increase in overall sales even at a lower margin will ultimately increase overall profit. That's a pretty attractive thing for those whose bonuses equal ten or twelce pairs of Apogees.

I see alot of parallels. CD is a dead format and DVD is, at best, stagnant. If the manufacturers feel that they can sell more units with marginalizd costs-to-retailer allthewhile lowering cost of production (as Terrence noted) they're gonna do it. If the retailers feel they can promote the product more effectively to sell their margin-product (for BB it's cables and warranties; Target it's canned corn and hairspray) through increased foot traffic, they're gonna do it, and they're going to pressure the manufacturers to accomodate their supply needs while expecting volume discounts.

And neither side is dumb enough not to have been doing major PR polls and testing---and it don't take a poll to open up one of these here forums and see that alot of folks stayed on the fence until the war was over...now it's time for watermellon.

At the end of the day everyone benefits from lower costs even in an artificial vacuum. What do I care if Biff gets a new set of Pings and Warren Worthington the 3rd buys a new Learjet? I got a great picture and a few audio formats outta the deal, and I'm betting that within five years BluRay will have a retail similar to that of current standard DVDs.

Now what I need you all to do is go buy some Prozac so I can get that tube preamp with the HT bypass that I want...

Sorry but since a certain pissant was chased off with his panties around his head I don't feel the need for mood altering drugs so badly, weather from a legal or illegal dealer.
Besides, you dont need a "tube" anything, the tech is totally obsolete

[drseid]

The correlation between lower production costs and lower prices is a loose one at best. It's competions that leads to price drops, not lower costs.

Agree 100% here. Production costs will indeed drop for BR as it continues to pick up steam now that HD DVD is all but finished, but that does not mean that those cost reductions will be passed on to the consumer. My guess is some will, but most will be kept as extra profit by the production companies.

---Dave

[Feanor]

Feanor,
.... However, with just one format now(and truely HD DVD life is over), the studio are quite aware that lowering disc prices will be essential for mass adoption. In reality, it is just too soon to expect the costs of bluray disc to be the same as DVD's to consumers. But as more consumer buy bluray discs, that will change pretty quickly.

Thanks, Sir T. I know you know what you're talking about. I certainly hope the prices will soon ease down. That will work out fine for me since my CRT TV has to die before I upgrade to HD; maybe a year, maybe two by the look of it.

My more immediate concern is a universal player that can do M/C SACD, but the Oppo at $170 is a no-brainer for that.

[kexodusc]

Thanks, Sir T. I know you know what you're talking about. I certainly hope the prices will soon ease down. That will work out fine for me since my CRT TV has to die before I upgrade to HD; maybe a year, maybe two by the look of it.

My more immediate concern is a universal player that can do M/C SACD, but the Oppo at $170 is a no-brainer for that.

Hmmm...where do you find this Oppo at?

[Feanor]

Hmmm...where do you find this Oppo at?

Kex, you can get these direct from the manufacturer, (or distributor?); check it out the DV-980H ... http://www.oppodigital.com/dv980h/default.asp

US$169 with one year warranty. Of course, we Canadian resident will have to pay the usual brokerage and taxes, and likely duty.

This is for my HD set up where I listen to SACD M/C once in awhile. The Oppo ought to do me very well at the very least until I get an HDTV.

[GMichael]

the future is vod, and downloading as well, the only market for future disc formats is
as an item for collectors.
ALSO as far as "upconverting" it can only be so good, you cant get resolution that wasnt there to begin with, aint no such thing as a free lunch.
AND I dont wanna hear about sir t's 30,000,000 scaler with a liquid hydrogen
cooling jacket around the supercomputer section.
In the real world a DVD is basically a 480i source, looks better when its deinterlaced
to 480p, but you will only get so much outta it

The future? Sure. I'll bet downloading is the future. But I'm thinking it's a few years off before it takes over. And even when it does, I'll still have my collection to watch any time I like. That's a good thing. I could have download excesability in one room and my HD disc selection in another. The future is looking bright.

My projector is 720p. No matter what my source, I'll still get 720p. One way or another, all 480, 720, 756, and 1080 signals are going to end up at 720p for me. But the upconverter on my HD-DVD player (as well as my PS3) do a better job of it than my projector does. Why wouldn't I want to take advantage of that?

[kexodusc]

Kex, you can get these direct from the manufacturer, (or distributor?); check it out the DV-980H ... http://www.oppodigital.com/dv980h/default.asp

US$169 with one year warranty. Of course, we Canadian resident will have to pay the usual brokerage and taxes, and likely duty.

This is for my HD set up where I listen to SACD M/C once in awhile. The Oppo ought to do me very well at the very least until I get an HDTV.

Hmmm, think I'm sold...I assume you've done your homework, this thing is well regarded, etc? I have a Yammie changer that works fine but doesn't up-convert, and a decent, old Toshiba universal that doesn't upconvert and is very mediocre in the PQ department. Might be time to replace that unit.

[Feanor]

Hmmm, think I'm sold...I assume you've done your homework, this thing is well regarded, etc? I have a Yammie changer that works fine but doesn't up-convert, and a decent, old Toshiba universal that doesn't upconvert and is very mediocre in the PQ department. Might be time to replace that unit.

Check out DV-980H reviews here. Also, it was mentioned in a recent TAS with particular reference to the fact that it can pass native DSD via HDMI.

[Rich-n-Texas]

The DV-980 is $169. direct from Oppo. And I'll tell ya, at that price it's almost worth it to have a dedicated CD player, dedicated SACD player AND a Blu-ray player.

Sorry, I'm a few posts behind...

BTW... I have VOD with my FIOS TV package, and although I've only really just tested the connection so far, the video is SD, and not very good SD at that. My D/L speed is 15Mb/s.

[L.J.]

Umm....when are upcoming BR titles supposed to be announced? Didn't we get announcements at last years CES?

[pixelthis]

The future? Sure. I'll bet downloading is the future. But I'm thinking it's a few years off before it takes over. And even when it does, I'll still have my collection to watch any time I like. That's a good thing. I could have download excesability in one room and my HD disc selection in another. The future is looking bright.

My projector is 720p. No matter what my source, I'll still get 720p. One way or another, all 480, 720, 756, and 1080 signals are going to end up at 720p for me. But the upconverter on my HD-DVD player (as well as my PS3) do a better job of it than my projector does. Why wouldn't I want to take advantage of that?

the max resolution of ntsc is about 400 lines on a perfect system on a good day when the planets are lined up.
Doesnt matter how many LINES you have, you just wont get an increase in rez from "upconverting, this is HT 101.
My "upconverting" Samsung looks great also, but thats probably because the 720p
I have it outputting is more compatible with my sets native res..
The HDDVD and PS3 have the latest el-cheapo scaling tech , which is why they probably do a "better" job than your projector, the tech is progressing rapidly,
but you still wont get a better resolution than you put in.
It might be 720p, but that doesnt mean that it has the resolution of a true 720p picture.
Might have the HD color palete, that would help a great deal.
In other words, AINT NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH.
If you could upscale DVDS to HD resolution you wouldnt need BLU or HDDVD players
now, would you?

[GMichael]

the max resolution of ntsc is about 400 lines on a perfect system on a good day when the planets are lined up.
Doesnt matter how many LINES you have, you just wont get an increase in rez from "upconverting, this is HT 101.
My "upconverting" Samsung looks great also, but thats probably because the 720p
I have it outputting is more compatible with my sets native res..
The HDDVD and PS3 have the latest el-cheapo scaling tech , which is why they probably do a "better" job than your projector, the tech is progressing rapidly,
but you still wont get a better resolution than you put in.
It might be 720p, but that doesnt mean that it has the resolution of a true 720p picture.
Might have the HD color palete, that would help a great deal.
In other words, AINT NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH.
If you could upscale DVDS to HD resolution you wouldnt need BLU or HDDVD players
now, would you?

You're right. Upscaling will never be as good as having an HD source to begin with. That's why I bought my PS3 and HD-DVD player.
When my source is not HD and I have a 720p display, then I really have no choice, do I?

[BRANDONH]

I doubt it will matter but here it is for those of you so inclined

http://www.petitiononline.com/SAVEHD...tion-sign.html

[L.J.]

Perhaps the petition should be for Universal and Paramount to hurry up and go Blu so we could end this stupid war.

[kexodusc]

Perhaps the petition should be for Universal and Paramount to hurry up and go Blu so we could end this stupid war.

Oooh...Where do I sign???

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I doubt it will matter but here it is for those of you so inclined

http://www.petitiononline.com/SAVEHD...tion-sign.html

Brandon,
In all sincererity it is way too late for this. HD DVD days are numbered, and Toshiba knows this.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

the max resolution of ntsc is about 400 lines on a perfect system on a good day when the planets are lined up.

That would be 480, not 400.

Doesnt matter how many LINES you have, you just wont get an increase in rez from "upconverting, this is HT 101.

The object is not to get more resolution, but to create a more smooth film like PQ without any loss of resolution.

The HDDVD and PS3 have the latest el-cheapo scaling tech , which is why they probably do a "better" job than your projector, the tech is progressing rapidly,
but you still wont get a better resolution than you put in.

El-cheapo is a rather poor choice of words to describe the scaling chips or algorythms in both HD DVD players and the PS3. The PS3 uses a scaling algorythm designed especially to work the the Cell processor. The great thing about this approach is the algorythm can be improved with a firmware update to continually tweak its performance. The A-35 and XA-2 use the HQV SO reon upscaling chip which is considered the best upscaling chips in the market. The Toshiba A1 and A2 use lesser upscaling chips since the maxium resolution of both of these is 1080i. El cheapo may better describe some of the upscaling chips in upconverting DVD players.

It might be 720p, but that doesnt mean that it has the resolution of a true 720p picture.
Might have the HD color palete, that would help a great deal.
In other words, AINT NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH.
If you could upscale DVDS to HD resolution you wouldnt need BLU or HDDVD players
now, would you?

The color palette of upconverting remains the same as the source. SMPTE colorspace standards for SD and HD are very different. Just because a 480i source is upconverted to 1080i/p does not magically improve the colorspace, or change it.

[pixelthis]

That would be 480, not 400.

actually its 380 in real word conditions(thats resolution, not lines)
Very few machines get 480, everybody I have talked to says that even with deinterlacing you're lucky to get 400 lines of resolution with DVD, even.
And of course, NTSC being interlaced the resolution is cut in half everytime theres movement, one of the biggest advantages to 480p is that its progressive' so it actually doubles the resolution, since you dont have this or other interlace bugaboos

The object is not to get more resolution, but to create a more smooth film like PQ without any loss of resolution.
the object is to get the best PQ possible , doesnt change the fact that "upscaling"
doesnt produce more resolution, and by "smoothing" the picture could actualy
reduce PQ.


El-cheapo is a rather poor choice of words to describe the scaling chips or algorythms in both HD DVD players and the PS3. The PS3 uses a scaling algorythm designed especially to work the the Cell processor. The great thing about this approach is the algorythm can be improved with a firmware update to continually tweak its performance. The A-35 and XA-2 use the HQV SO reon upscaling chip which is considered the best upscaling chips in the market. The Toshiba A1 and A2 use lesser upscaling chips since the maxium resolution of both of these is 1080i. El cheapo may better describe some of the upscaling chips in upconverting DVD players.

el cheapo is just a term used to describe just about any built in scaling scheme,
doesnt mean they are bad, indeed they are getting better, but the only way for true scaling is with a seperate scaler, which is certainly NOT el cheapo

The color palette of upconverting remains the same as the source. SMPTE colorspace standards for SD and HD are very different. Just because a 480i source is upconverted to 1080i/p does not magically improve the colorspace, or change it.

It depends, I had a reference panasonic DVD when DVDAUDIO came out , a very nice unit, and when you choose 480p (progressive) you could choose what they called HD color palate, dont know if this was vaporware or not but the color was the best I had ever seen in a standard DVD player.
Not an expert on this but 480p is one of the HD standards (atsc standards anyway) so it seems that this wouldnt be a problem

[pixelthis]

I doubt it will matter but here it is for those of you so inclined

http://www.petitiononline.com/SAVEHD...tion-sign.html

It wont matter.
For one thing toshiba doesnt CARE about a few early adopters, they got into this to get the proprietary rights to the new DVD standard, same as sony.
LOOKS like they'll lose, and bleed money, and they are out the door.
Matter of fact, they already know this, probably have for awhile.
For this petition to come out so soon just shows how everyone knows, really that
HDDVD is DEAD
aND STARTING THIS PETITION WAS RATHER NAIVE