Toshiba rejects Blu-ray victory claim.

[L.J.]

This is the offer I got. Doesn't expire til 6/30/07.

http://www.blu-raymovierebate.com/ps_movies.html

[Woochifer]

This is the offer I got. Doesn't expire til 6/30/07.

http://www.blu-raymovierebate.com/ps_movies.html

Thanks LJ for the clarification, much appreciated because I've been reading a lot of conflicting claims on this topic. It looks like this offer is basically a $10 rebate on selected titles, so it's not even redeemable at retail stores and does not apply to most titles. Because it's limited to those selected titles, the rebate offer wouldn't explain how The Departed Blu-ray disc outsold the HD-DVD by a 20,000 to 13,000 margin during the first week. And it won't explain the trend data for next week when the sales for Casino Royale get factored in.

From googling a bit about the HD disc sales, it seem that sale numbers for both Bluray and HD-DVD might be inflated and not paint a true picture since alot of movie sales were based on vouchers, rebates and free give aways. And the fact the HD discs only count for 1% of total DVD sales, it might be too early to draw any conclusion from disc sales alone.

The sales figures do not include anything from giveaways. It's all point-of-sale tracking, so the Blu-ray sales might indeed be inflated by consumers taking advantage of that $10 rebate offer. But, as I pointed out to L.J., the PS3 offer only applies to a select group of titles, and would not explain the more recent trends, which have been largely driven by new releases not on the rebate list.

I agree that it's early, but HD-DVD has more market obstacles that it has to overcome just to draw even with Blu-ray. So long as it remains at a disadvantage in studio support and hardware sales, HD-DVD will likely face a rapidly widening sales gap. Betamax was already at a 2-to-1 disadvantage in its installed user base before the studios even got around to releasing pre-recorded tapes. The format was already fighting an uphill battle, even though it was supported by all the major studios.

One advantage DVD-HD have (although not having too many studio support is a disadvantage), is their lower price HD player offering. They say they will undercut Sony players, and Toshiba HD player might come down to level of current DVD players in the near future.

If Toshiba can offer HD players at same price as regular DVD players (especially at this early stage), they indeed might have a winning shot. Even if not, their lower price players will make this format war last a bit longer and make them coexist with bluray players for foreseeable future.

Problem is that even with a six-month headstart and lower prices, sales for standalone HD-DVD and Blu-ray players were practically even last year. Toshiba can continue to undercut Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, et al, but that won't matter if Blu-ray continues to maintain an exclusive hold on the highest grossing titles.

Cheap HD-DVD players are indeed coming soon, since Toshiba has been signing up Chinese outsource manufacturers to produce off-brand players. But, if HD-DVD becomes synonymous with companies peddling disposable junk like one-time high flying Apex Digital, and the majority of the top box office titles remain exclusive to Blu-ray, how is that going to help HD-DVD's long-term prospects?

IMO, the worst scenario for HD discs would be a prolonged format war.

[Smokey]

Cheap HD-DVD players are indeed coming soon, since Toshiba has been signing up Chinese outsource manufacturers to produce off-brand players. But, if HD-DVD becomes synonymous with companies peddling disposable junk like one-time high flying Apex Digital, and the majority of the top box office titles remain exclusive to Blu-ray, how is that going to help HD-DVD's long-term prospects?

Too late, cheap HD-DVD players are already here. They say it goes for around $200-$250.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=822006

I agree with you that not having too many studio support does put a damper on Toshiba's quest for the top. After all, software availability might decide the winner in this format war. But Sony need to bite the bullet and drop prices on Bluray players significantly.

Upsurge in Sales of 1080P display will probably be the tipping point for either of these formats. Then the winning format have to worry about whether consumers are ready to drop their DVD collection for HD version of it, or whether they only be interested in new HD titles they don’t have in their collection.