Toshiba rejects Blu-ray victory claim.

[Smokey]

Toshiba has rejected claims from the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) that Blu-ray is winning the format war.

Olivier Van Wynendaele, Deputy General manager of HD DVD at Toshiba, accused the group of using propaganda in their press releases. The BDA and news sources have been reporting that Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD by a ratio of 3:1 in the U.S., which Van Wynendaele strongly denies.

He told Tech.co.uk that the reason for the sudden surge in Blu-ray figures was due to new owners of the PlayStation 3 console redeeming Blu-ray movie vouchers given to them by Sony. The vouchers can be exchanged at retail stores and Van Wynendaele said this has distorted the genuine sales figures.

He then went on to say that over 200,000 HD DVD stand-alone players were sold in the United States, compared to 30,000 stand-alone Blu-ray players, and criticized the BDA for attempting to count all PS3s as Blu-ray player sales when they have no proof that customers are using them for anything other than games or are interested in buying any Blu-ray movies at all.

He then made a very valid point; with high def player sales figures being only 1% of regular DVD player sales in the U.S., it is impossible for either format to declare victory at such an early stage.

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/9033.cfm

[kexodusc]

Propaganda? Not Sony...

[Smokey]

Propaganda? Not Sony...

I am surprise article didn't mention Woochifer as part of Sony's propaganda machine LOL

Toshiba has said that they will undercut any price reduction Sony tag their Blu-ray players in the market. That might be good news for consumers as prices keep falling and falling.

[L.J.]

I am surprise article didn't mention Woochifer as part of Sony's propaganda machine LOL .

Toshiba has said that they will undercut any price reduction Sony tag their Blu-ray players in the market. That might be good news for consumers as prices keep falling and falling.

On and on it goes. If this keeps up, I'll eventually pick up a HD-DVD player (maybe even a Xbox 360) for a decent price and be done with it.

[Woochifer]

Problem with Toshiba's argument is that they present absolutely no scenario in which HD-DVD will reverse the sales trends. What HD-DVD exclusive titles do they have coming up in the next few months that will help narrow the sales gap? I don't see any. The biggest HD-DVD titles coming out will also be available on Blu-ray. Plus, Blu-ray has got concurrent releases on 3 of last year's top 10 movies coming out in the next few weeks. Universal is ramping up a fairly large slate of releases, but nearly all of them re-release titles that have already come out on DVD. Toshiba can push the hardware price points through the floor, but so long as more of the best selling titles continue to come out exclusively on Blu-ray, the market support won't be there.

Those PS3 "vouchers" that the HD-DVD camp has repeatedly pointed to as the culprit behind Blu-ray's sales surge are $15 off coupons that from what I understand expired sometime in February (if someone who owns a PS3 can confirm the expiration date on those Blu-ray coupons, that would be a big help in addressing some of the claims and counterclaims). If those coupons no longer affect the market, then how did Blu-ray increase its sales lead over HD-DVD to a 4-to-1 margin in the latest Videoscan data? And that was the week before the Blu-ray release of Casino Royale that peaked at #8 on Amazon's sales chart.

Both sides are guilty of spreading questionable and debunked claims, but the short of it is that Blu-ray is winning the format war and will likely widen its lead unless something drastic happens in the market. Blu-ray made its victory declaration back in January, and the sales trends since that time have done nothing to shoot down that claim. Toshiba's making a lot of speculative guesses that do nothing to change what the sales figures say. It might be early in this format war, but keep in mind that the studios and retailers started to withdraw support for the Betamax before its market share went down to a 3-to-1 margin.

[L.J.]

This is the offer I got. Doesn't expire til 6/30/07.

http://www.blu-raymovierebate.com/ps_movies.html

[Smokey]

Those PS3 "vouchers" that the HD-DVD camp has repeatedly pointed to as the culprit behind Blu-ray's sales surge are $15 off coupons that from what I understand expired sometime in February (if someone who owns a PS3 can confirm the expiration date on those Blu-ray coupons, that would be a big help in addressing some of the claims and counterclaims). If those coupons no longer affect the market, then how did Blu-ray increase its sales lead over HD-DVD to a 4-to-1 margin in the latest Videoscan data?.

According to L.J. link (thatnks L.J.), the offer doesn't expire till 6/30/07.

From googling a bit about the HD disc sales, it seem that sale numbers for both Bluray and HD-DVD might be inflated and not paint a true picture since alot of movie sales were based on vouchers, rebates and free give aways. And the fact the HD discs only count for 1% of total DVD sales, it might be too early to draw any conclusion from disc sales alone.

One advantage DVD-HD have (although not having too many studio support is a disadvantage), is their lower price HD player offering. They say they will undercut Sony players, and Toshiba HD player might come down to level of current DVD players in the near future.

If Toshiba can offer HD players at same price as regular DVD players (especially at this early stage), they indeed might have a winning shot. Even if not, their lower price players will make this format war last a bit longer and make them coexist with bluray players for foreseeable future.

[Woochifer]

This is the offer I got. Doesn't expire til 6/30/07.

http://www.blu-raymovierebate.com/ps_movies.html

Thanks LJ for the clarification, much appreciated because I've been reading a lot of conflicting claims on this topic. It looks like this offer is basically a $10 rebate on selected titles, so it's not even redeemable at retail stores and does not apply to most titles. Because it's limited to those selected titles, the rebate offer wouldn't explain how The Departed Blu-ray disc outsold the HD-DVD by a 20,000 to 13,000 margin during the first week. And it won't explain the trend data for next week when the sales for Casino Royale get factored in.

From googling a bit about the HD disc sales, it seem that sale numbers for both Bluray and HD-DVD might be inflated and not paint a true picture since alot of movie sales were based on vouchers, rebates and free give aways. And the fact the HD discs only count for 1% of total DVD sales, it might be too early to draw any conclusion from disc sales alone.

The sales figures do not include anything from giveaways. It's all point-of-sale tracking, so the Blu-ray sales might indeed be inflated by consumers taking advantage of that $10 rebate offer. But, as I pointed out to L.J., the PS3 offer only applies to a select group of titles, and would not explain the more recent trends, which have been largely driven by new releases not on the rebate list.

I agree that it's early, but HD-DVD has more market obstacles that it has to overcome just to draw even with Blu-ray. So long as it remains at a disadvantage in studio support and hardware sales, HD-DVD will likely face a rapidly widening sales gap. Betamax was already at a 2-to-1 disadvantage in its installed user base before the studios even got around to releasing pre-recorded tapes. The format was already fighting an uphill battle, even though it was supported by all the major studios.

One advantage DVD-HD have (although not having too many studio support is a disadvantage), is their lower price HD player offering. They say they will undercut Sony players, and Toshiba HD player might come down to level of current DVD players in the near future.

If Toshiba can offer HD players at same price as regular DVD players (especially at this early stage), they indeed might have a winning shot. Even if not, their lower price players will make this format war last a bit longer and make them coexist with bluray players for foreseeable future.

Problem is that even with a six-month headstart and lower prices, sales for standalone HD-DVD and Blu-ray players were practically even last year. Toshiba can continue to undercut Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, et al, but that won't matter if Blu-ray continues to maintain an exclusive hold on the highest grossing titles.

Cheap HD-DVD players are indeed coming soon, since Toshiba has been signing up Chinese outsource manufacturers to produce off-brand players. But, if HD-DVD becomes synonymous with companies peddling disposable junk like one-time high flying Apex Digital, and the majority of the top box office titles remain exclusive to Blu-ray, how is that going to help HD-DVD's long-term prospects?

IMO, the worst scenario for HD discs would be a prolonged format war.

[Smokey]

Cheap HD-DVD players are indeed coming soon, since Toshiba has been signing up Chinese outsource manufacturers to produce off-brand players. But, if HD-DVD becomes synonymous with companies peddling disposable junk like one-time high flying Apex Digital, and the majority of the top box office titles remain exclusive to Blu-ray, how is that going to help HD-DVD's long-term prospects?

Too late, cheap HD-DVD players are already here. They say it goes for around $200-$250.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=822006

I agree with you that not having too many studio support does put a damper on Toshiba's quest for the top. After all, software availability might decide the winner in this format war. But Sony need to bite the bullet and drop prices on Bluray players significantly.

Upsurge in Sales of 1080P display will probably be the tipping point for either of these formats. Then the winning format have to worry about whether consumers are ready to drop their DVD collection for HD version of it, or whether they only be interested in new HD titles they don’t have in their collection.

[PeruvianSkies]

I am surprise article didn't mention Woochifer as part of Sony's propaganda machine LOL

Toshiba has said that they will undercut any price reduction Sony tag their Blu-ray players in the market. That might be good news for consumers as prices keep falling and falling.

Woochifer is to Blu-ray as TRIUMPH OF THE WILL is to Hitler.

[L.J.]

Geez, that's a very basic looking player. "Cheap" is right.

[Robert-The-Rambler]

Geez, that's a very basic looking player. "Cheap" is right.

For the bedroom with an HDTV and simple sound setup. I wonder how many bugs it has.

[Smokey]

If it does a good job with upsampling regular DVD to 720P or 1080i via HDMI, at $199 it might be viable alternative to regular DVD player with upsampling capability.

Smart move by Toshiba might be to flood market with HD-DVD movies (albiet not haveing too many studio support) to attract more consumers to these players. After all, software availability might be the deciding factor in this format war.

[PeruvianSkies]

If it does a good job with upsampling regular DVD to 720P or 1080i via HDMI, at $199 it might be viable alternative to regular DVD player with upsampling capability.

Smart move by Toshiba might be to flood market with HD-DVD movies (albiet not haveing too many studio support) to attract more consumers to these players. After all, software availability might be the deciding factor in this format war.

Smokey, I think that Blu-ray will win for one reason only: cosmetics. Blue is a better color than red in my opinion and usually a better seller just for appeal factor alone. People are typically attracted to colors like blue than red and I think that more people like saying the word "Blu-ray" as it rolls of the tongue versus "H-Dee-Dee-Vee-Dee." You might think i'm crazy, but I guess we shall see.

[L.J.]

...I think that more people like saying the word "Blu-ray" as it rolls of the tongue versus "H-Dee-Dee-Vee-Dee." You might think i'm crazy, but I guess we shall see.

Interesting point. When discussing this topic with my brother, we no longer say HD-DVD. We had to drop the DVD part and just say HD. It "rolls of the tongue" so much easier.

[PeruvianSkies]

Interesting point. When discussing this topic with my brother, we no longer say HD-DVD. We had to drop the DVD part and just say HD. It "rolls of the tongue" so much easier.

I suppose I typically say HD formats and one thing that HD-DVD going for it is that it tells you IN the name that it's a HD disc, rather than Blu-ray, which doesn't really say much, however, PS3 seems to be breaking down the barriers of consumer awareness.