Toshiba rejects Blu-ray victory claim.

[Woochifer]

Problem with Toshiba's argument is that they present absolutely no scenario in which HD-DVD will reverse the sales trends. What HD-DVD exclusive titles do they have coming up in the next few months that will help narrow the sales gap? I don't see any. The biggest HD-DVD titles coming out will also be available on Blu-ray. Plus, Blu-ray has got concurrent releases on 3 of last year's top 10 movies coming out in the next few weeks. Universal is ramping up a fairly large slate of releases, but nearly all of them re-release titles that have already come out on DVD. Toshiba can push the hardware price points through the floor, but so long as more of the best selling titles continue to come out exclusively on Blu-ray, the market support won't be there.

Those PS3 "vouchers" that the HD-DVD camp has repeatedly pointed to as the culprit behind Blu-ray's sales surge are $15 off coupons that from what I understand expired sometime in February (if someone who owns a PS3 can confirm the expiration date on those Blu-ray coupons, that would be a big help in addressing some of the claims and counterclaims). If those coupons no longer affect the market, then how did Blu-ray increase its sales lead over HD-DVD to a 4-to-1 margin in the latest Videoscan data? And that was the week before the Blu-ray release of Casino Royale that peaked at #8 on Amazon's sales chart.

Both sides are guilty of spreading questionable and debunked claims, but the short of it is that Blu-ray is winning the format war and will likely widen its lead unless something drastic happens in the market. Blu-ray made its victory declaration back in January, and the sales trends since that time have done nothing to shoot down that claim. Toshiba's making a lot of speculative guesses that do nothing to change what the sales figures say. It might be early in this format war, but keep in mind that the studios and retailers started to withdraw support for the Betamax before its market share went down to a 3-to-1 margin.

[Smokey]

Those PS3 "vouchers" that the HD-DVD camp has repeatedly pointed to as the culprit behind Blu-ray's sales surge are $15 off coupons that from what I understand expired sometime in February (if someone who owns a PS3 can confirm the expiration date on those Blu-ray coupons, that would be a big help in addressing some of the claims and counterclaims). If those coupons no longer affect the market, then how did Blu-ray increase its sales lead over HD-DVD to a 4-to-1 margin in the latest Videoscan data?.

According to L.J. link (thatnks L.J.), the offer doesn't expire till 6/30/07.

From googling a bit about the HD disc sales, it seem that sale numbers for both Bluray and HD-DVD might be inflated and not paint a true picture since alot of movie sales were based on vouchers, rebates and free give aways. And the fact the HD discs only count for 1% of total DVD sales, it might be too early to draw any conclusion from disc sales alone.

One advantage DVD-HD have (although not having too many studio support is a disadvantage), is their lower price HD player offering. They say they will undercut Sony players, and Toshiba HD player might come down to level of current DVD players in the near future.

If Toshiba can offer HD players at same price as regular DVD players (especially at this early stage), they indeed might have a winning shot. Even if not, their lower price players will make this format war last a bit longer and make them coexist with bluray players for foreseeable future.