The smell of desperation is in the air...PS3

[Woochifer]

Ok, heres why that is a lame arguement. During the buildup Sony portrayed the PS3 as the end-all console of consoles. I think only the Second Coming of Jesus himself could have edged out the excitement that Sony was dishing out. Now, add to the hype an EXTRA 8 months development time. Now remember, we were promised that this machine would BLOW the 360 out of the water.

So guess what? The hype didn't match up. Even though developers had an EXTRA 8 months developent time, they still cant match the 360 in graphics OR gameplay. That is downright stupid.

I never said that the PS3 has hit its tech limits. But they sure shot themselves in the foot with this. Who wants to buy the "Next Gen Console" and then be told by the salesman...."Just wait TILL NEXT YEAR FOR THE REALLY GOOD GAMES!!!".... In essence you are suggesting that the PS3 will forever be behind the 360.

And as for "Technical Advantage", depends on what tech nerd you are quoteing. The cell my be a hardier processer, but the badwidth, and the level of RAM is 1/2 that of the 360. In essence it has a bigger engine, and is hobbled with a 2 gear transmission. If you want to argue this line, we had better start another thread.

MS delivered on the promise of HD games, enhanced online content, and solid gameplay. They didn't engage in trash talk like the Sony Managment team. Yes they had some supply issues, and some hardware issues, but that was resolved.

And again you're making the comparison of the Xbox 360, as it is right now with a one-year head start versus the PS3, which has had a rocky launch. How did the Xbox 360 look at launch? Pretty shaky as well from my recollection. As I said before, a lot of the original Xbox games also didn't look any better than the PS2 games at launch. The capabilities of that platform did not get highlighted until later. How will things shake out a year from now? We'll know better at that point, especially since past precedence suggests that these game consoles take about two years before sales start to hit their stride.

You ought to read the Wall Street Journal today. Has a really interesting article on Motorolla getting killed and having to revise its profit #'s. Seems the Razar (PS2) is a HUGE seller. So big in fact that Motorolla (Sony) cant get it customers to buy its new phone Krazar (PS3). Margins are down, and they are stuck with a bunch of customers that see no need to buy the fancy new phone (console). Sucks to be them.

Completely different market because in the cell phone market Motorola only makes money by continuing to sell hardware. Game consoles, as you've pointed out repeatedly, are loss leaders on the hardware side with the profits coming from software and licensing. With 100 million+ PS2 owners, Sony's still making money off of that platform because games are still being produced and sold. Once Motorola sells someone a cell phone, they don't get much more revenue from that customer until they buy another phone.

Cool did you buy one? They are even coming with a free game!

If you buy me a HDTV first, I'll consider it.

[Groundbeef]

And again you're making the comparison of the Xbox 360, as it is right now with a one-year head start versus the PS3, which has had a rocky launch. How did the Xbox 360 look at launch? Pretty shaky as well from my recollection. As I said before, a lot of the original Xbox games also didn't look any better than the PS2 games at launch. The capabilities of that platform did not get highlighted until later. How will things shake out a year from now? We'll know better at that point, especially since past precedence suggests that these game consoles take about two years before sales start to hit their stride.

Thats the problem in a nutshell. Before release Sony was beating the band explaining how they were going to kill the 360. And now all we are hearing is how much better the PS3 will be NEXT year. As far as the 360 is concerned I would agree that the initial launch titles were not super duper. But unlike Sony, MS didnt engage in trash talk.

I think the constant drumbeat of "Wait Till Next Year" gives the PS3 a sort of Cubs Fever. It'll ALWAYS be better next year. BTW what did Sony do with that extra 8 mos? Imagine if it had been released on time. What would the games look like then?

Completely different market because in the cell phone market Motorola only makes money by continuing to sell hardware. Game consoles, as you've pointed out repeatedly, are loss leaders on the hardware side with the profits coming from software and licensing. With 100 million+ PS2 owners, Sony's still making money off of that platform because games are still being produced and sold. Once Motorola sells someone a cell phone, they don't get much more revenue from that customer until they buy another phone.

Except Sony has bet the farm on the PS3. Royalties from the PS2 isn't going to keep the shareholders happy. The model may be a bit different, but the concept is very similar. Seriously read the article. You seem like the educated sort that reads the WSJ anyway.

If you buy me a HDTV first, I'll consider it.

Umm yea, its on its way. Go ahead and get the 360, and wait for it!

[kexodusc]

Thats the problem in a nutshell. Before release Sony was beating the band explaining how they were going to kill the 360. And now all we are hearing is how much better the PS3 will be NEXT year. As far as the 360 is concerned I would agree that the initial launch titles were not super duper. But unlike Sony, MS didnt engage in trash talk.

I think the constant drumbeat of "Wait Till Next Year" gives the PS3 a sort of Cubs Fever. It'll ALWAYS be better next year. BTW what did Sony do with that extra 8 mos? Imagine if it had been released on time. What would the games look like then?

Back up for a second - did anyone else here really hear all this so called over-hype from the PS3? I vaguely remember hearing rumours about it a few times, but it was hardly a pre-launch marketing campaign of epic proportions.
The only people who were exposed to Sony's ravings (whatever they were) were the super-hardcore gaming enthusiasts who went out of their way to buy magazines or search websites for PS3 development news. A lot of these gaming fanatics are going to but PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii regardless.
This is not a big share of the market however, most consumers only know that PS2 was the big thing, and now there's 3. That's it. They probably don't know why it's supposedly better than PS2, but hey, it's got a 3 and higher number is always better. They probably don't know anything about it's early problems, it's market share, profitability, etc. They don't even care.

Except Sony has bet the farm on the PS3. Royalties from the PS2 isn't going to keep the shareholders happy. The model may be a bit different, but the concept is very similar. Seriously read the article. You seem like the educated sort that reads the WSJ anyway.

Sony hasn't be the farm. The future of Sony is not contingent on the success of PS3. Not at all. That company is big enough to absorb those kinds of huge losses, and has a history of doing so. Don't kid yourself. A few bad quarters on Wall Street isn't going to scare Sony.

The phone analogy was interesting, but really doesn't apply here - gaming consoles undertake dramatic improvements and changes. These 2 cell phones, not as much. The Krazar's primary function is to be a cell phone, and it really doesn't do that better than the Razar - the difference is the # of toys you get and how much consumers are willing to pay for it. That's more a case of product cannibalism. There's always a bit of that in gaming, but that's remedied by the planned obsolescence approach. PS2 will slowly be phased out, at whatever rate benefits Sony the most.
The gaming industry has decades of evidence of consumers migrating to the next generation of consoles, (and doing so gradually - a few years after launch) because they do the job better than the previous generation. All you have to do is look at Xbox 360's early success to see most recent example of this. Most people tend to buy cell phones only when they re-enter service contracts.

[Groundbeef]

Back up for a second - did anyone else here really hear all this so called over-hype from the PS3? I vaguely remember hearing rumours about it a few times, but it was hardly a pre-launch marketing campaign of epic proportions.
The only people who were exposed to Sony's ravings (whatever they were) were the super-hardcore gaming enthusiasts who went out of their way to buy magazines or search websites for PS3 development news. A lot of these gaming fanatics are going to but PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii regardless.
This is not a big share of the market however, most consumers only know that PS2 was the big thing, and now there's 3. That's it. They probably don't know why it's supposedly better than PS2, but hey, it's got a 3 and higher number is always better. They probably don't know anything about it's early problems, it's market share, profitability, etc. They don't even care.

Heres Some Tidbits for ya:

http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/sony/so...any-206399.php

http://www.gamespot.com/pages/forums...ic_id=25247543 (This one kinda sums up various statements and mis-steps)

http://www.gamepro.com/news.cfm?article_id=83692 (this one is kinda ironic)

Theres others, but I gotta run down and finish the rest of my basement.

Sony hasn't be the farm. The future of Sony is not contingent on the success of PS3. Not at all. That company is big enough to absorb those kinds of huge losses, and has a history of doing so. Don't kid yourself. A few bad quarters on Wall Street isn't going to scare Sony.

Did you bother to read the articles that I pasted earlier. Sony has invested much of its future on the PS3. Whether to drive business to the Blu-Ray, or Flat panel displays, or other Sony products. The PS3 is the linch-pin for its future sucess. As far as a few bad quarters? This has been going on for some time.

I am not suggesting that Sony is going belly up tommorow. But for you to simply dismiss the current finiacial crisis that Sony is experiencing is also disengenious. A few years ago, Sony may have had the finiancial padding to absorb these losses, but that cushion is mighty thin now.

The phone analogy was interesting, but really doesn't apply here - gaming consoles undertake dramatic improvements and changes. These 2 cell phones, not as much. The Krazar's primary function is to be a cell phone, and it really doesn't do that better than the Razar - the difference is the # of toys you get and how much consumers are willing to pay for it. That's more a case of product cannibalism. There's always a bit of that in gaming, but that's remedied by the planned obsolescence approach. PS2 will slowly be phased out, at whatever rate benefits Sony the most.
The gaming industry has decades of evidence of consumers migrating to the next generation of consoles, (and doing so gradually - a few years after launch) because they do the job better than the previous generation. All you have to do is look at Xbox 360's early success to see most recent example of this. Most people tend to buy cell phones only when they re-enter service contracts.

The differences are there, but so are the similarities. The discussion was about how MS cut off support for the orginial Xbox when the 360 came out. They removed the ability for its customers to continue to purchase the "old" and hold off buying the new. Because Sony has allowed the PS2 to stay out they have limited ability to compell consumers to upgrade. Coupled with the fact that the PS3 really doesn't have any great launch titles it sort of reinforces the rational NOT to upgrade.

And who is going to drop $150 on a PS2 and then turn around and buy a PS3 in a week or two? Probably not too many people. I just think the thought process is flawed for Sony. And I see similarties between Motorolla and Sony.

[kexodusc]

Did you bother to read the articles that I pasted earlier. Sony has invested much of its future on the PS3. Whether to drive business to the Blu-Ray, or Flat panel displays, or other Sony products. The PS3 is the linch-pin for its future sucess. As far as a few bad quarters? This has been going on for some time.

I am not suggesting that Sony is going belly up tommorow. But for you to simply dismiss the current finiacial crisis that Sony is experiencing is also disengenious. A few years ago, Sony may have had the finiancial padding to absorb these losses, but that cushion is mighty thin now.

Not downplaying Sony's difficult times at all or being disingenuous. But I'm not getting as excited and using phrases like "bet the farm" implying all-or-nothing with PS3. Sony's going to sell a crap load of PS3 even in the worst case scenario, they'll probably make some off BluRay (I'm guessing by caving into a hybrid format if the going gets tough). Wasn't that long ago Microsoft and AMD where pretty poorly situated financially and they turned themselves around. I highly doubt PS3 being a bust would even be the biggest crisis in Sony's history.
They might make some money, they might lose some. Wall Street's not banking on them making a killing but that can change really fast. 10 years from now Sony will still be selling cheap electronics. That is certain.

And who is going to drop $150 on a PS2 and then turn around and buy a PS3 in a week or two? Probably not too many people. I just think the thought process is flawed for Sony. And I see similarties between Motorolla and Sony.

How's the thought process flawed? By trying to maximize profitability for the entire basket of goods collectively instead of looking after each product in isolation? That's the difference between Sony and Motorolla - Sony is the former, Motorolla the latter.

I don't think PS2 sales are are anticipated to carry on so strongly for too much longer - but they'll enjoy them while they can. No, nobody's likely to buy a PS3 just 1 year after a PS2, but many of the millions of late PS2 buyers are quite likely to show up late to the PS3 party too.

[Groundbeef]

I highly doubt PS3 being a bust would even be the biggest crisis in Sony's history. They might make some money, they might lose some. Wall Street's not banking on them making a killing but that can change really fast. 10 years from now Sony will still be selling cheap electronics. That is certain.

So tell me does Sony pay you by the word or per post? MS just cuts me a fat check each month. Perhaps PS3 failure wouldn't be the biggest failure, but I cant think of a larger capital expenditure on a single line that Sony has invested in recently. Coupled with the fact that Apple basically stole the portable music party that Sony once had (Walkman) and that Sony was very late to the Flat Screen Party, and that the Movie division seems intent on only releasing stinkers, yeah Sony has problems all over.

How's the thought process flawed? By trying to maximize profitability for the entire basket of goods collectively instead of looking after each product in isolation? That's the difference between Sony and Motorolla - Sony is the former, Motorolla the latter.

Were going to have to agree to disagree on this point. Perhaps it was easier for MS to cut the Xbox Console because it had a smaller installed base. But MS hasn't abandoned those gamers. Deveolpers are still releasing games for the console. 14 in Nov-Dec alone. With the PS2 base being larger, I can see that it is tempting to want to cater to them. But, without compelling them to upgrade, it only gives MS more of a lead in the next gen console arena.

I don't think PS2 sales are are anticipated to carry on so strongly for too much longer - but they'll enjoy them while they can. No, nobody's likely to buy a PS3 just 1 year after a PS2, but many of the millions of late PS2 buyers are quite likely to show up late to the PS3 party too.

Probably, unless future PS3 releases don't show marked improvement over the 360. Realizing that my anecdotal stories carry small weight, I work with several PS2 owners. In the past 3 months 6 have gotten 360's. Only 1 was considering the PS3, but couldn't pull the trigger for $600+. So we shall see who shows up late for the party!

[kexodusc]

So tell me does Sony pay you by the word or per post? MS just cuts me a fat check each month. Perhaps PS3 failure wouldn't be the biggest failure, but I cant think of a larger capital expenditure on a single line that Sony has invested in recently. Coupled with the fact that Apple basically stole the portable music party that Sony once had (Walkman) and that Sony was very late to the Flat Screen Party, and that the Movie division seems intent on only releasing stinkers, yeah Sony has problems all over.

LOL. You couldn't find a company I dislike more an Sony - From what I've seen, I'll be sticking with XBOX 360 if it's price drops enough. Otherwise Wii has peaked my interest the most of the 3. PS3 is a distant 3rd, and it would take some pretty magnificent games for me to get into PS3. I'm not sold on BluRay, and I'm personally rooting for HD-DVD for cost/benefit reasons. I think consumers have more options this time around, and less incentive to upgrade. So this format war is still very, very early. There's a lot of early Xbox buyers, but it remains to be seen if they'll be able to keep up their sales now that Wii and PS3 are fighting them head on in 2007. I'll boldly predict 2007 is harder on them than 2006.
Truth, is I think I've agreed with every point you've made about Sony's troubles except the magnitude of the current crisis. Sony's missed the ball big time in a lot of areas - crappy hi-fi, poor quality products, a cost-ineffective brand name retail store, and now seemingly a poor start to their one star product in the PS. (Movies are different though, 1 good title can change a company's fate in movies in a matter of weeks- most studio's are struggling these days - past performance is not an indicator of future performance).

I've maintained all along, I'm not ready to write of Sony based on the success of PS3. They could overcome PS3 being a big bust, and rebound with PS4. Now, if they continue to suck donkey balls for another 5-10 years they'll have serious problems. But that's assuming PS3 doesn't recover. I think there's lots of time for it to make Sony a lot of money on PS3. Not as much as they did on PS2, but not a wash either. People snarfed them up as fast as they could get them in most places. You can't find one in my region. Plenty of time left in the game.

Were going to have to agree to disagree on this point. Perhaps it was easier for MS to cut the Xbox Console because it had a smaller installed base. But MS hasn't abandoned those gamers. Deveolpers are still releasing games for the console. 14 in Nov-Dec alone. With the PS2 base being larger, I can see that it is tempting to want to cater to them. But, without compelling them to upgrade, it only gives MS more of a lead in the next gen console arena.

The temptation to upgrade is the always taken care of in the new releases of supposedly better games on the next platform. That's going to happen regardless of how much support they provide PS2. When PS2 starts cutting into PS3 to the point that Sony is losing money on the total basket, they'll drop PS2 (well, significantly scale back at least). I think we also have to consider that a ton of 360 owners are going to also get the PS3. They'll probably wait a year or two though. We're what - 3 or 4 months into the PS3's launch?

Probably, unless future PS3 releases don't show marked improvement over the 360. Realizing that my anecdotal stories carry small weight, I work with several PS2 owners. In the past 3 months 6 have gotten 360's. Only 1 was considering the PS3, but couldn't pull the trigger for $600+. So we shall see who shows up late for the party!

I own a PS2 and XBox. I prefer the XBox by a wide margin. Enough that I have no brand loyalty to PS and some to XBox (though my recent experience with the Windows XP hotline has really soured me on MS).
I just found most of the common games were so much better on XBox.
I like XBox exlusives more than Sony exclusives too. And I like the HD-DVD aspect as well as the online gaming foundation XBox has. Significant advantages I think.
But those same advantages didn't translate into better sales in the last round. And at current prices, I don't see XBox 360 as being any better a value than the PS3 right now. I don't underestimate Sony's marketing ability, brand power, or the PS3 machine itself. I kind of suspect the vast majority of the market is going to wait until year 2 or 3 before finally buying the first console. I'll decide at the time what's a better value.

I agree with you - PS is gonna lose a ton of market share to Wii and XBox 360. I think Sony's tough talking aside, they recognize this and accept that. But I think the potential is there for them to make money off this.

One last thing - someone else mentioned it already, but I wouldn't be surprised if this generation fails to meet everyone's expectation - maybe too much, too soon, and too expensive for the average user. Wii really added a new dimension to the console war. I look forward to revisiting this a year from now to see where these 3 companies stand.