Quote Originally Posted by nightflier
Just kidding.

SirT has dug his own hole and I sure as hell am not going to help dig him out. I'm pretty sure everyone's is tired of reading about our debate so if he's so sure about his numbers, then he should have no problem with a little wager. As I said before to him, either put up of shut up (nothing to loose but a little pride, there, my brother).
Already addressed this, move on

Your points are worth exploring, though. As I started reading your post I was all set to start with Walmart's defection and that they represent a substantial portion of movie sales... Then I read that you thoughtfully included that at the end. It's that kind of careful writing that should be applauded here.
Just so you know, Walmart represents a substantial portion of DVD sales, not HD DVD or Bluray sales. There is a difference. HD DVD nor Bluray software is not offered in all of their stores. At this point the leader in HD software sales happens to Amazon, and NDP captures Amazon's sales.

Nielson ratings shouldn't be dismissed or written off. If my business depended on movie sales, I certainly would value the information. That said, I still would say the same thing about why they do not represent the whole picture:

1. While sales number for a single store can still be accurate, once numbers are aggregated nation wide, or even worldwide, they become statistics, and thus estimates with margins of error.
A margin of error does not negate the statistic, especially when that margin of error is understood. Companies standardize their reporting precedures so you don't have store to store variantions. Store to store variations in reporting sales figures are a nightmare to a large corporations bottom line, so I am sure they have designed reporting processes that eliminate these kinds of variation.

2. Small percentage variations, for example between the sale of BR & HDDVD disks of the same movie, can be significant. For example, they can be smaller than the margin of error.
Still no reason to discount the information.

3. Small percentage variations, can get blown out of proportion once the media, the industry, and the flag-waivers get a hold of them. This is not Nielson's fault, but it bears mentioning, because I think the Nielson head honchos do read them - or at the very least their lawyers do.
It really doesn't matter much if the media blows it out of proportion, they do it all the time. This is not relevant as long as the sales figures are properly collected.

4. If previous data collection bodies, that we all believed to be "impartial," from Billboard to Videoscan can be found to be biased, then we can't really say that Nielson's numbers are completely reliable either or whether their reliability can change over time as pressure mounts in this format war.
It is a stretch to gage what one company does and apply it automatically to another. They may have completely different ways of collecting data, which makes the two companies apples and oranges. One company may be found flawed, and the other not. However you would paint them all with a street sweeper.

5. Nielson exists because the industry pays them. Their existence depends to some extent, perhaps a very small extent, on keeping the industry happy (kind of like Sound & Vision reviewers). While this may only be a small influence, is it enough to exceed the margin of error?
The broadcast industry in the past has not been happy with Neilsons reporting. ABC seems to have ongoing issues with them. They however continue to use Nielsons ratings as a source when they set their advertising prices. So much for the theory that they must function in a way to keep the industry happy. They have a symbiant relationship.

Look, I don't have hard numbers, I simply don't have that kind of insider information and I don't subscribe to NDP. I am only advising caution before everybody starts buying into one format or the other. There is variability in the numbers and there is industry influence. Can we really be so sure, after everything we know from the history of this business, that we have enough information to make that purchase? Personally I've been burned by LD and SACD. I've sold off all my LD gear and I decided to hold onto to SACD, but I can't say I didn't feel betrayed by the industry, the reviewers, and the media. Now that I know bit more about the rotten way that the SACD was hobbled from the start, I have even less faith in the "official" sources, whatever they may be.
Do you really think that joe6pack does a careful analysis which includes acknowledging unknowns, inperfections in sales figures, industry influence, their dog pissed on the cat, or a shipment of HD DVD fell into the ocean when they go to the counter to purchase a HD player? I don't think so. It is much more simple than that. They just want a player that can play HD movies. If price is their priority, they'll choose HD DVD. If choice of players, flexbility of the players(PS3), or choice of manufacturer is important to them, they'll choose bluray.

Your faith in "official" sources is your issue. You knock me because I have issues with Toshiba, yet your perspective is clouded with issues of feeling betrayed by LD and SACD. On what basis is your opinion more valid than mine in this case? I wasn't burned by LD, I enjoyed it tremendously. I haven't been burned by SACD thanks to the fact the PS3 can play the discs. So do you expect me or anyone else to be as non trusting as you since we don't or didn't share your experience?

- Not all studios are with BR
Not all studios are with HD DVD as well. Despite this, people are buying players and disc.

HDDVD has pretty much the same technical advantages
Nope. There are some very big differences that can effect performance between the two formats. HD DVD cannot do seemless branching. HD DVD video rate tops out at 29.4mbps, blurays 48mbps. Big difference during difficult scenes. Bluray can use a variety of audio and video codecs, HD DVD cannot use MPEG-2, nor can it use PCM uncompressed audio. Bluray can use two dolby trueHD bitstreams along with a 16bit PCM uncompressed stream simultaneously. HD DVD can never do that.

Not as close as you try and make it is it?

Microsoft is a big player and really hasn't shown itself (yet?)
Microsoft doesn't make movies, nor HD players. However they do financially support the HD DVD format by way of being a part of the HD DVD PG and their developement of iHD.
Both BR & HDDVD only represent a very small share of the movie market
At this moment correct
Sales figures may not be a 100% complete picture [we've been discussing that here]
Irrelevant fact when a consumer goes to the checkout line. Most consumers don't care about sales figures

Either format involves a considerable financial investment for most people, adding to their trepidation
Considerable investment means different things to different people based on their economic position. I purchased both of my players for less than $850. The Sony BP-S300 can be found for around $425, and can be incorporated into any system that includes 6 channel analog ins. If you already have a HDTV, then the cost is the player and the HDMI cable which can be had for starting at $6 and up depending on length. Bundling will include some free movies to get you started. On Bluray.com there are some college students who have a bluray player and HDTV. So apparently its not the price, but the desire and will that gets you in the game.



VOD is vying for the same consumers
Not true. Past surveys have shown that movie collectors are not interested in VOD, and most people who use VOD are not interested in buying discs. I am the former. VOD is costly up front as you have to purchase a HD DVR, have cable or satellite service and its monthly fees along with the VOD per view price. When I had comcast with HD channels I was paying $120 a month. I am sure that would stop alot of people in their tracks.

Downloaded content is possible in Japan, so how long until it's here?
Japan can get far quicker download speeds than we can. We would have to rebuild our system from the ground up to get to those speeds. In spite of the fact that Japan can do downloads, DVD's, and now HD on disc is the rage. Thanks to the PS3 bluray has already overtaken VOD in terms of dollars, and VOD wasn't even on the radar compared to DVD sales in Japan.

There are just too many questions. I applaud the courage of those who have made a choice, and I'm sure they are enjoying their systems, but for those of us who are still on the fence, the choice is really not that clear. Well, with the exception of Pixel and SirT, I suppose.
The choice is clear to anyone who really wants HD movies on disc. If you like Universal movies(minus Spielbergs stuff) Paramount/Dreamworks(minus Coppola and Spielbergs stuff)movies, you'll pick HD DVD for the price. If you prefer Sony, Disney, and Fox movies, you'll go with Bluray. Warner serves both formats. Its difficult for you because as you have stated, you have been burned before. Not everyone has had your experience.



By the way, if a tanker full of BR or HDDVD disks sank in the pacific, or any other catastrophic, political, or gray-market event affected availability, it would have an impact on the price of players.
This is not oil here. If a tanker full of HDM on disc sank, the cost would remain the same. Besides, discs don't travel across the ocean. Most HD DVD and bluray disc are manufactured right in this country. You are applying apples and orange analysis in this case.



This can certainly have an impact on this format war, especially during this crucial holiday season. And as far as being impartial is concerned, everybody has a small angle, even doctors - after all if we were all healthy, they would be out of work.
Not exactly. Ever heard of preventive medicine???

SirT mentioned that his analyses had been good for his wallet, so I presumed from that that he too had an interest, although now I think he just has a bone to pick with Toshiba and once he gets his claws into a foe... well you know the rest.
I didn't say my analysis has been good for my wallet, I said my contacts within the industry have been good to my wallet. Huge difference here(reading comprehension for $100 pleeeze)

My bone with Toshiba has been picked and cast away. I moved on.

In my opinion, and in answer to Mr. Peabody's initial post, the numbers in favor of BR, while impressive, are not enough for me to buy in. I also don't think that a 2-1 margin should be a concluding factor in this format war for anyone else browsing the malls and online stores for an upgrade in their HT systems. There are far more questions to be asked, in my opinion. I would need to see a much wider margin as well as more damning news about HDDVD, VOD, Downloads, and everything else that stands in the way of BR, before I open up my wallet.
I am not going to debate the reasons why you don't support either format. None of my business. However, you do not have the right to use your reasons as a reason to discourage others. Based on what you have posted in this thread, most folks don't even think like you even when evaluating whether to get in either format. For some, its the price of the players, for some its the price of the software, for some its which studio supports which format, for some its none of these. Whatever their reason are, they do not need your biases in the mix.