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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey
2 mb is probably alright for most internet activities, but most likely not for downloading. I have 1.5 dsl and takes three hours to download contents equal to a CD (700 mb). Now if I want to down load a movie size of DVD (4.5 gb), it will take about 20 hours :nonod:
I agree with you. Downloading is not an attractive option when you can own it "physically" :16:
HEY SMOKEY, have you done the math on your downloads?
NO way are you getting 1.5.
I had DSL, and their download claims tend to be somewhat optimistic to put it politely.
I have 1.5 cable, and it only takes a few minutes to DL 35mb.
I have downloaded entire albums in lossless formats off of newsgroups,
and rarely does it take thirty minutes
YOU SHOULD be getting at least a 100mb in ten minutes, or around that.
And no way is a movie on the net 4,5 gig.
Most use divx, or wma, or RAR.
AND theres a lot of fluff in a DVD that you don't need.
In any event, your DSL provider is putting the screwdoo to ya, friend:1:
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Oh geez, nightflier are you going through yet another round of scrutiny on what the Nielson figures represent?
First and foremost, you can attack the methodology and try poking holes in statistical theory all you want, but for purposes of tracking sales of video titles by format, there is no source out there that's even remotely as accurate or comprehensive as the Nielson figures. Why? Because this is not a statistical sample based on a small percentage of a population -- it's a point-of-sale transactional tally that covers the majority of the total sales represented in the market. This is not like a psychological study where the findings are based on a sample that represents a small percentage of the total population and reported within a certain confidence range.
If the Nielson Videoscan/Soundscan methodology (which you have not at all referred to in any substantive manner in how Nielson's data collection is actually done) is as flawed and subject to manipulation as you claim, then who should be doing the data collection? The government? The Economic Census, which is setup to potentially track this kind of information and has about the highest response rate of any business survey, is conducted every five years, and it takes approximately 3 1/2 years for the Census Bureau to complete the data reporting -- is that the interval that you would propose? Or if you use the monthly Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tracks the Consumer Price Index, you're relying on a sample of 90,000 households with a much lower threshold and higher error rate. Or do we just do away with objectivity altogether and let empirical evidence rule the roost?
And if the problems with the Nielson methodology are as glaring as you've impugned, then why do all of the major studios (including those that support HD-DVD) and record companies subscribe to their service? I can tell you first hand that the Nielson point-of-sale service was a direct response to the blatant data manipulation that routinely occurred before the major media companies and retailers went on board with the Soundscan and Videoscan services.
Before Soundscan and Videoscan came along, music and video sales reported by Billboard, Cash Box, and other charts were recorded using weekly inventory tallies that were done by hand. Retail store managers were often directed by distributors to withhold reporting some of the sales transactions until a specified number of weeks after the release date. This was done because back then the most important trend to demonstrate was upward sales momentum. Albums would hardly ever debut at #1, but rather #4, #8, or #10 "with a bullet." Sales reports were routinely massaged so that the weekly charts would consistently show new albums rising up the charts, even if the actual sales trends were less consistent.
Soundscan/Videoscan take this kind of extreme bias out of the equation by recording the transaction at the point of sale. Before Soundscan/Videoscan came along, the record companies could not even identify how many copies of a given title actually sold in a given week. The availability of accurate sales data fundamentally changed how retailers, record companies, and the studios did their marketing. All of these midnight release parties for new CD or video releases, and front loaded week-of-release marketing for DVDs are a direct response to Soundscan/Videoscan. The record companies and studios no longer try to show momentum and week-to-week rise in chart positions, but rather huge sales numbers on the week of release.
And before you go into how data can still be manipulated, try asking why would Nielson setup a de facto payola system where chart positions can be bought and sold if all of the major media organizations subscribe to their service? Presumably, they would want the most accurate data recording possible. While HD-DVD fanboys have done plenty of baseless ranting about Nielson's Blu-ray "bias," I have yet to hear anything from Toshiba, Microsoft, Universal, Paramount, or Dreamworks challenging the accuracy of the Nielson data. If there was any kind of data manipulation going on in the midst of a format war, why wouldn't they challenge it? Maybe because the HD-DVD and Blu-ray proponents alike selectively report bits and pieces of the sales data that suit their purposes. If there was a fundamental flaw or bias in the data, then it would stand to reason that one side would report the Nielson data, while the other side would find a different data source.
I'm not saying that the Nielson data is perfect, because there are holes in the sample (e.g., Wal-Mart stopped participating in 2001). But, short of a 100% sample (which would be impossible given that retail sales data for individual stores/retail chains is proprietary), the Nielson data is about as good you're going to get for tracking video sales, and it draws from a much larger sample (~60% of the total sales) than just about any other categorical retail sales tracking data that I've seen.
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Wow. I missed these threads.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by projection
Ok, this is my first post and I was hesitant to post on this site after reading this thread because it would seem that everything that I said would be picked apart by the vultures here. Maybe i'll hang around for a bit and see before I post much.
Dude you are freakin' nuts.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
Oh geez, nightflier are you going through yet another round of scrutiny on what the Nielson figures represent?
First and foremost, you can attack the methodology and try poking holes in statistical theory all you want, but for purposes of tracking sales of video titles by format, there is no source out there that's even remotely as accurate or comprehensive as the Nielson figures. Why? Because this is not a statistical sample based on a small percentage of a population -- it's a point-of-sale transactional tally that covers the majority of the total sales represented in the market. This is not like a psychological study where the findings are based on a sample that represents a small percentage of the total population and reported within a certain confidence range.
If the Nielson Videoscan/Soundscan methodology (which you have not at all referred to in any substantive manner in how Nielson's data collection is actually done) is as flawed and subject to manipulation as you claim, then who should be doing the data collection? The government? The Economic Census, which is setup to potentially track this kind of information and has about the highest response rate of any business survey, is conducted every five years, and it takes approximately 3 1/2 years for the Census Bureau to complete the data reporting -- is that the interval that you would propose? Or if you use the monthly Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tracks the Consumer Price Index, you're relying on a sample of 90,000 households with a much lower threshold and higher error rate. Or do we just do away with objectivity altogether and let empirical evidence rule the roost?
And if the problems with the Nielson methodology are as glaring as you've impugned, then why do all of the major studios (including those that support HD-DVD) and record companies subscribe to their service? I can tell you first hand that the Nielson point-of-sale service was a direct response to the blatant data manipulation that routinely occurred before the major media companies and retailers went on board with the Soundscan and Videoscan services.
Before Soundscan and Videoscan came along, music and video sales reported by Billboard, Cash Box, and other charts were recorded using weekly inventory tallies that were done by hand. Retail store managers were often directed by distributors to withhold reporting some of the sales transactions until a specified number of weeks after the release date. This was done because back then the most important trend to demonstrate was upward sales momentum. Albums would hardly ever debut at #1, but rather #4, #8, or #10 "with a bullet." Sales reports were routinely massaged so that the weekly charts would consistently show new albums rising up the charts, even if the actual sales trends were less consistent.
Soundscan/Videoscan take this kind of extreme bias out of the equation by recording the transaction at the point of sale. Before Soundscan/Videoscan came along, the record companies could not even identify how many copies of a given title actually sold in a given week. The availability of accurate sales data fundamentally changed how retailers, record companies, and the studios did their marketing. All of these midnight release parties for new CD or video releases, and front loaded week-of-release marketing for DVDs are a direct response to Soundscan/Videoscan. The record companies and studios no longer try to show momentum and week-to-week rise in chart positions, but rather huge sales numbers on the week of release.
And before you go into how data can still be manipulated, try asking why would Nielson setup a de facto payola system where chart positions can be bought and sold if all of the major media organizations subscribe to their service? Presumably, they would want the most accurate data recording possible. While HD-DVD fanboys have done plenty of baseless ranting about Nielson's Blu-ray "bias," I have yet to hear anything from Toshiba, Microsoft, Universal, Paramount, or Dreamworks challenging the accuracy of the Nielson data. If there was any kind of data manipulation going on in the midst of a format war, why wouldn't they challenge it? Maybe because the HD-DVD and Blu-ray proponents alike selectively report bits and pieces of the sales data that suit their purposes. If there was a fundamental flaw or bias in the data, then it would stand to reason that one side would report the Nielson data, while the other side would find a different data source.
I'm not saying that the Nielson data is perfect, because there are holes in the sample (e.g., Wal-Mart stopped participating in 2001). But, short of a 100% sample (which would be impossible given that retail sales data for individual stores/retail chains is proprietary), the Nielson data is about as good you're going to get for tracking video sales, and it draws from a much larger sample (~60% of the total sales) than just about any other categorical retail sales tracking data that I've seen.
You mean he has been on this rant before. Geeze, you would think that he would get tired of arguing this issue with no proof of any wrong doing by NDP. I have never heard of someone demonizing something before its been proven unreliable.
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Wooch, you wana piece of me too?
Just kidding.
SirT has dug his own hole and I sure as hell am not going to help dig him out. I'm pretty sure everyone's is tired of reading about our debate so if he's so sure about his numbers, then he should have no problem with a little wager. As I said before to him, either put up of shut up (nothing to loose but a little pride, there, my brother).
Your points are worth exploring, though. As I started reading your post I was all set to start with Walmart's defection and that they represent a substantial portion of movie sales... Then I read that you thoughtfully included that at the end. It's that kind of careful writing that should be applauded here.
Nielson ratings shouldn't be dismissed or written off. If my business depended on movie sales, I certainly would value the information. That said, I still would say the same thing about why they do not represent the whole picture:
1. While sales number for a single store can still be accurate, once numbers are aggregated nation wide, or even worldwide, they become statistics, and thus estimates with margins of error.
2. Small percentage variations, for example between the sale of BR & HDDVD disks of the same movie, can be significant. For example, they can be smaller than the margin of error.
3. Small percentage variations, can get blown out of proportion once the media, the industry, and the flag-waivers get a hold of them. This is not Nielson's fault, but it bears mentioning, because I think the Nielson head honchos do read them - or at the very least their lawyers do.
4. If previous data collection bodies, that we all believed to be "impartial," from Billboard to Videoscan can be found to be biased, then we can't really say that Nielson's numbers are completely reliable either or whether their reliability can change over time as pressure mounts in this format war.
5. Nielson exists because the industry pays them. Their existence depends to some extent, perhaps a very small extent, on keeping the industry happy (kind of like Sound & Vision reviewers). While this may only be a small influence, is it enough to exceed the margin of error?
Look, I don't have hard numbers, I simply don't have that kind of insider information and I don't subscribe to NDP. I am only advising caution before everybody starts buying into one format or the other. There is variability in the numbers and there is industry influence. Can we really be so sure, after everything we know from the history of this business, that we have enough information to make that purchase? Personally I've been burned by LD and SACD. I've sold off all my LD gear and I decided to hold onto to SACD, but I can't say I didn't feel betrayed by the industry, the reviewers, and the media. Now that I know bit more about the rotten way that the SACD was hobbled from the start, I have even less faith in the "official" sources, whatever they may be.
So despite all the positive news from the BR camp, I still think there are real challenges to jumping with both feet into that pond:
- Not all studios are with BR
- HDDVD has pretty much the same technical advantages
- Microsoft is a big player and really hasn't shown itself (yet?)
- Both BR & HDDVD only represent a very small share of the movie market
- Sales figures may not be a 100% complete picture [we've been discussing that here]
- Either format involves a considerable financial investment for most people, adding to their trepidation
- VOD is vying for the same consumers
- Downloaded content is possible in Japan, so how long until it's here?
There are just too many questions. I applaud the courage of those who have made a choice, and I'm sure they are enjoying their systems, but for those of us who are still on the fence, the choice is really not that clear. Well, with the exception of Pixel and SirT, I suppose.
By the way, if a tanker full of BR or HDDVD disks sank in the pacific, or any other catastrophic, political, or gray-market event affected availability, it would have an impact on the price of players. This can certainly have an impact on this format war, especially during this crucial holiday season. And as far as being impartial is concerned, everybody has a small angle, even doctors - after all if we were all healthy, they would be out of work. SirT mentioned that his analyses had been good for his wallet, so I presumed from that that he too had an interest, although now I think he just has a bone to pick with Toshiba and once he gets his claws into a foe... well you know the rest.
In my opinion, and in answer to Mr. Peabody's initial post, the numbers in favor of BR, while impressive, are not enough for me to buy in. I also don't think that a 2-1 margin should be a concluding factor in this format war for anyone else browsing the malls and online stores for an upgrade in their HT systems. There are far more questions to be asked, in my opinion. I would need to see a much wider margin as well as more damning news about HDDVD, VOD, Downloads, and everything else that stands in the way of BR, before I open up my wallet.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
Dude, get a life. It took you like 3 hours to dissect and respond to Nightfliers post. Don't you have anything better to do? It's obvious that neither one of you are going to give in on the dispute, but save us from having to read your novels back and forth!
PS, it actually took me closer to twenty minutes. I was doing two other things aside from answering this rather useless post.
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I am beginning to think that Sir T, despite his long-standing history at this site has evolved into some type of advanced supertroll. He's a bit more evasive than your typical troll, but I am using my Troll-O-Meter and I am picking up some very strong signals within this thread from his direction. It would seem that he uses his cloaking device (read lengthy ramblings compiled from various sources that do in fact make some sense). This cloaking device enables him to be reputable to most people and harmless as well, but at the same time he throws out these hard opinions to which he stands by AND like any ordinary troll, becomes highly defensive when questioned, to which he uses his other advanced troll abilities, which is another attribute of these supertrolls, he has the ability to do certainly psychology and uses word games in order to twist around and tear apart everything that is said and then proceeds to take it out of context, thus making or attempting to make the other person sound less educated and or inferior.
Man, you have been watching far too many movies. Step away from the set, and out into the real world bro.
I have no problems with anyone questioning what I state. I actually invite people to do so by providing links etc. However, when a person challenges what I state, and provides not one shred of information that rebuts or refuts it, then why should I be considered wrong?
Next piece to this. Trolling. You are calling me a supertroll. Here is the definition of a troll.
"is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an on-line community such as an on-line discussion forum with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
1. I have yet to post any topic since I have been back here. I have responded to topics.
2. I have never baited anyone into an argumentive response. I just posted my opinion which is supported by facts. That's quite a difference.
3. I am not the OP of thread. Mr Peabody is. In this particular instance only Mr Peabody can be the troll.
Now that we have delt with that, please realize that calling me names is not an adult approach. Adults do not have to call names when they discuss things. You can agree to disagree, but the name calling just isn't necessary.
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Now let me be clear here...I don't doubt that you are an insider and have connections, or even that you are a "specialist" on this topic, but even "specialists" can be wrong, or using the doctor analogy...it's like this...
You are correct, I can be wrong, and have been in the past. However, those who accuse you of being wrong have the burden of PROVING that you are wrong. You can't just call somebody wrong, and hope it sticks.
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Let's say you were a Heart Doctor (a specialist in that field) and you were very good at what you did. Now, do you make mistakes? Maybe. Who is to say? Well, other people within that profession would have first hand knowledge as to whether or not you made a mistake. However, that doesn't mean that someone else could have pointed out your mistake as well, and I am not saying that you made a mistake on this thread or that the information that you provided is 100% false or inaccurate, I am simply making a point on being right, being wrong, and just an opinion. You know it takes a strong person to admit when they are wrong or that they 'could' be wrong. Sometimes there is no way of knowing. Specialists, scientists, doctors, lawyers, anyone can make mistakes, no-one is perfect and just because you might be an authority on a subject doesn't discount other peoples feelings, beliefs, and opinions on that subject, and sometimes....believe it or not....they might be right too.
Another audio engineer could point out that I was wrong because he or she knows the job. However, there is no way a Doctor who has never been in a recording studio can tell me that I am wrong while recording. How would he know. In this example we have here, there is a person who does not work in the industry(which may or may not be important depending on their knowledge of the industry), who obviously does not understand how the industry works, is saying that the information the industry uses to gage its sales health is inherently flawed and manipulated. Yet he has offered nothing in the way of direct information to refute said information. He is just making a unsupported claim because he read in a book they can manipulate stat's. If you are going to call someone a crook, you have to have proof they actually stole something. You cannot go to court and tell the judge that based on the fact the person has stolen something in the past, he is guilty of stealing again without evidence. That is called an unsubstantiated claim
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Wow, sneaky troll technique #445
That was a good one, use the definition of a 'troll' and then re-work it so that it seems that it doesn't apply to you. Nice one. A troll is indeed someone who posts with the intent of causing arguments, but there is NEVER any mention that it has to be the original poster. You could be a troll and post anywhere on the thread that you like, it's called Troll-jacking. Please stop trying to use your reverse wordology and wikipedia to baffle us. We are not impressed.
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Are ya'll done? Is the debate over? Is it too late to chime in? Earlier this year I read an interview of one of the founders of ARCAM. I got the distinct impression he was pulling for HD-DVD to prevail. Here's the interview: http://stereophile.com/interviews/107daw/
It made me wonder whether some of the hardware manufacturers we (most regulars) tend to gravitate to are/were pulling for HD-DVD early on. Admittedly, Sony is no slouch. Sometimes their reputation is actually better than their products, but there's no doubt they are formidable competition.
I've never been an early adopter, but I splurged on Toshiba's 2nd gen entry player when it went on sale for $269.99 (and 5 free titles by mail). I'm glad I did because I didn't have an sd player with upconverting/upscaling circuitry and sd dvds looked bad on my HD display. I think I could've accomplished the same thing (near-hd picture with sd dvds) by getting a quality upscaling player from the likes of Denon, Marantz, Pioneer Elite, or taking a chance on a cheaper player from brands I'm not as familiar with such as Oppo. However, I wouldn't have the option of a true hd source. You can probably tell that I'm pleased with the Toshiba's performance with sd dvds. If Blu-ray wins out, I know I can at least get most of Stanley Kubrick's movies on HD-DVD before the war ends and still have a unit that makes sd dvds look good. Heck, if Blu-ray ultimately prevails, then I'll have a legit reason to get a PS3, right?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
That was a good one, use the definition of a 'troll' and then re-work it so that it seems that it doesn't apply to you. Nice one. A troll is indeed someone who posts with the intent of causing arguments, but there is NEVER any mention that it has to be the original poster. You could be a troll and post anywhere on the thread that you like, it's called Troll-jacking. Please stop trying to use your reverse wordology and wikipedia to baffle us. We are not impressed.
Actually , the definition fits you perfectly :ciappa:
And who is this "we" and "us", your talking about? You scare me.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dean_martin
Heck, if Blu-ray ultimately prevails, then I'll have a legit reason to get a PS3, right?
:thumbsup:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by L.J.
Actually , the definition fits you perfectly :ciappa:
And who is this "we" and "us", your talking about? You scare me.
You sound more like Pix each day, are you sure you two aren't related?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
That was a good one, use the definition of a 'troll' and then re-work it so that it seems that it doesn't apply to you. Nice one. A troll is indeed someone who posts with the intent of causing arguments, but there is NEVER any mention that it has to be the original poster. You could be a troll and post anywhere on the thread that you like, it's called Troll-jacking. Please stop trying to use your reverse wordology and wikipedia to baffle us. We are not impressed.
Come on now...there's a big difference between a troll and Sir T - advancing or defending one's position is not trolling. If Sir T is a troll, so is Nightflier. Neither are trolls, they just have a history of being on opposite sides of certain debates.
Man up dude, I'd apologize if I were you.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kexodusc
Come on now...there's a big difference between a troll and Sir T - advancing or defending one's position is not trolling. If Sir T is a troll, so is Nightflier. Neither are trolls, they just have a history of being on opposite sides of certain debates.
Man up dude, I'd apologize if I were you.
Did you ever think that maybe some of us can see his true colors through the smoke-screen?
Apologize? Are you kidding me? He should apologize for making me spend 20-minutes just to read through ONE post.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
Did you ever think that maybe some of us can see his true colors through the smoke-screen?
No.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
Apologize? Are you kidding me? He should apologize for making me spend 20-minutes just to read through ONE post.
Hooked On Phonics can help with that.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kexodusc
No.
Hooked On Phonics can help with that.
Please. You are doubting my inability to communicate? Ha. Shows what little you know about me, but you can keep on making assumptions. I think Sir T can stand up for himself if he feels threatened, now take your pack of dogs back to another thread.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
Please. You are doubting my inability to communicate? Ha. Shows what little you know about me, but you can keep on making assumptions. I think Sir T can stand up for himself if he feels threatened, now take your pack of dogs back to another thread.
I am definitely NOT doubting your inability to communicate! LOL
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Attn: Nightflier...
Apparently we are not allowed to disagree with anyone on this site, when we do we get lambasted by the rest.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kexodusc
I am definitely NOT doubting your inability to communicate! LOL
Please be so kind as to point out where I have failed the English language in my ability to type or read or function as a human being? I'll await your petty remark as well as I am sure you will have something.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
Apparently we are not allowed to disagree with anyone on this site, when we do we get lambasted by the rest.
:sad: Oh, somebody needs a hug.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nightflier
Just kidding.
SirT has dug his own hole and I sure as hell am not going to help dig him out. I'm pretty sure everyone's is tired of reading about our debate so if he's so sure about his numbers, then he should have no problem with a little wager. As I said before to him, either put up of shut up (nothing to loose but a little pride, there, my brother).
Already addressed this, move on
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Your points are worth exploring, though. As I started reading your post I was all set to start with Walmart's defection and that they represent a substantial portion of movie sales... Then I read that you thoughtfully included that at the end. It's that kind of careful writing that should be applauded here.
Just so you know, Walmart represents a substantial portion of DVD sales, not HD DVD or Bluray sales. There is a difference. HD DVD nor Bluray software is not offered in all of their stores. At this point the leader in HD software sales happens to Amazon, and NDP captures Amazon's sales.
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Nielson ratings shouldn't be dismissed or written off. If my business depended on movie sales, I certainly would value the information. That said, I still would say the same thing about why they do not represent the whole picture:
1. While sales number for a single store can still be accurate, once numbers are aggregated nation wide, or even worldwide, they become statistics, and thus estimates with margins of error.
A margin of error does not negate the statistic, especially when that margin of error is understood. Companies standardize their reporting precedures so you don't have store to store variantions. Store to store variations in reporting sales figures are a nightmare to a large corporations bottom line, so I am sure they have designed reporting processes that eliminate these kinds of variation.
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2. Small percentage variations, for example between the sale of BR & HDDVD disks of the same movie, can be significant. For example, they can be smaller than the margin of error.
Still no reason to discount the information.
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3. Small percentage variations, can get blown out of proportion once the media, the industry, and the flag-waivers get a hold of them. This is not Nielson's fault, but it bears mentioning, because I think the Nielson head honchos do read them - or at the very least their lawyers do.
It really doesn't matter much if the media blows it out of proportion, they do it all the time. This is not relevant as long as the sales figures are properly collected.
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4. If previous data collection bodies, that we all believed to be "impartial," from Billboard to Videoscan can be found to be biased, then we can't really say that Nielson's numbers are completely reliable either or whether their reliability can change over time as pressure mounts in this format war.
It is a stretch to gage what one company does and apply it automatically to another. They may have completely different ways of collecting data, which makes the two companies apples and oranges. One company may be found flawed, and the other not. However you would paint them all with a street sweeper.
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5. Nielson exists because the industry pays them. Their existence depends to some extent, perhaps a very small extent, on keeping the industry happy (kind of like Sound & Vision reviewers). While this may only be a small influence, is it enough to exceed the margin of error?
The broadcast industry in the past has not been happy with Neilsons reporting. ABC seems to have ongoing issues with them. They however continue to use Nielsons ratings as a source when they set their advertising prices. So much for the theory that they must function in a way to keep the industry happy. They have a symbiant relationship.
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Look, I don't have hard numbers, I simply don't have that kind of insider information and I don't subscribe to NDP. I am only advising caution before everybody starts buying into one format or the other. There is variability in the numbers and there is industry influence. Can we really be so sure, after everything we know from the history of this business, that we have enough information to make that purchase? Personally I've been burned by LD and SACD. I've sold off all my LD gear and I decided to hold onto to SACD, but I can't say I didn't feel betrayed by the industry, the reviewers, and the media. Now that I know bit more about the rotten way that the SACD was hobbled from the start, I have even less faith in the "official" sources, whatever they may be.
Do you really think that joe6pack does a careful analysis which includes acknowledging unknowns, inperfections in sales figures, industry influence, their dog pissed on the cat, or a shipment of HD DVD fell into the ocean when they go to the counter to purchase a HD player? I don't think so. It is much more simple than that. They just want a player that can play HD movies. If price is their priority, they'll choose HD DVD. If choice of players, flexbility of the players(PS3), or choice of manufacturer is important to them, they'll choose bluray.
Your faith in "official" sources is your issue. You knock me because I have issues with Toshiba, yet your perspective is clouded with issues of feeling betrayed by LD and SACD. On what basis is your opinion more valid than mine in this case? I wasn't burned by LD, I enjoyed it tremendously. I haven't been burned by SACD thanks to the fact the PS3 can play the discs. So do you expect me or anyone else to be as non trusting as you since we don't or didn't share your experience?
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- Not all studios are with BR
Not all studios are with HD DVD as well. Despite this, people are buying players and disc.
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HDDVD has pretty much the same technical advantages
Nope. There are some very big differences that can effect performance between the two formats. HD DVD cannot do seemless branching. HD DVD video rate tops out at 29.4mbps, blurays 48mbps. Big difference during difficult scenes. Bluray can use a variety of audio and video codecs, HD DVD cannot use MPEG-2, nor can it use PCM uncompressed audio. Bluray can use two dolby trueHD bitstreams along with a 16bit PCM uncompressed stream simultaneously. HD DVD can never do that.
Not as close as you try and make it is it?
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Microsoft is a big player and really hasn't shown itself (yet?)
Microsoft doesn't make movies, nor HD players. However they do financially support the HD DVD format by way of being a part of the HD DVD PG and their developement of iHD.
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Both BR & HDDVD only represent a very small share of the movie market
At this moment correct
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Sales figures may not be a 100% complete picture [we've been discussing that here]
Irrelevant fact when a consumer goes to the checkout line. Most consumers don't care about sales figures
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Either format involves a considerable financial investment for most people, adding to their trepidation
Considerable investment means different things to different people based on their economic position. I purchased both of my players for less than $850. The Sony BP-S300 can be found for around $425, and can be incorporated into any system that includes 6 channel analog ins. If you already have a HDTV, then the cost is the player and the HDMI cable which can be had for starting at $6 and up depending on length. Bundling will include some free movies to get you started. On Bluray.com there are some college students who have a bluray player and HDTV. So apparently its not the price, but the desire and will that gets you in the game.
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VOD is vying for the same consumers
Not true. Past surveys have shown that movie collectors are not interested in VOD, and most people who use VOD are not interested in buying discs. I am the former. VOD is costly up front as you have to purchase a HD DVR, have cable or satellite service and its monthly fees along with the VOD per view price. When I had comcast with HD channels I was paying $120 a month. I am sure that would stop alot of people in their tracks.
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Downloaded content is possible in Japan, so how long until it's here?
Japan can get far quicker download speeds than we can. We would have to rebuild our system from the ground up to get to those speeds. In spite of the fact that Japan can do downloads, DVD's, and now HD on disc is the rage. Thanks to the PS3 bluray has already overtaken VOD in terms of dollars, and VOD wasn't even on the radar compared to DVD sales in Japan.
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There are just too many questions. I applaud the courage of those who have made a choice, and I'm sure they are enjoying their systems, but for those of us who are still on the fence, the choice is really not that clear. Well, with the exception of Pixel and SirT, I suppose.
The choice is clear to anyone who really wants HD movies on disc. If you like Universal movies(minus Spielbergs stuff) Paramount/Dreamworks(minus Coppola and Spielbergs stuff)movies, you'll pick HD DVD for the price. If you prefer Sony, Disney, and Fox movies, you'll go with Bluray. Warner serves both formats. Its difficult for you because as you have stated, you have been burned before. Not everyone has had your experience.
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By the way, if a tanker full of BR or HDDVD disks sank in the pacific, or any other catastrophic, political, or gray-market event affected availability, it would have an impact on the price of players.
This is not oil here. If a tanker full of HDM on disc sank, the cost would remain the same. Besides, discs don't travel across the ocean. Most HD DVD and bluray disc are manufactured right in this country. You are applying apples and orange analysis in this case.
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This can certainly have an impact on this format war, especially during this crucial holiday season. And as far as being impartial is concerned, everybody has a small angle, even doctors - after all if we were all healthy, they would be out of work.
Not exactly. Ever heard of preventive medicine???
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SirT mentioned that his analyses had been good for his wallet, so I presumed from that that he too had an interest, although now I think he just has a bone to pick with Toshiba and once he gets his claws into a foe... well you know the rest.
I didn't say my analysis has been good for my wallet, I said my contacts within the industry have been good to my wallet. Huge difference here(reading comprehension for $100 pleeeze)
My bone with Toshiba has been picked and cast away. I moved on.
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In my opinion, and in answer to Mr. Peabody's initial post, the numbers in favor of BR, while impressive, are not enough for me to buy in. I also don't think that a 2-1 margin should be a concluding factor in this format war for anyone else browsing the malls and online stores for an upgrade in their HT systems. There are far more questions to be asked, in my opinion. I would need to see a much wider margin as well as more damning news about HDDVD, VOD, Downloads, and everything else that stands in the way of BR, before I open up my wallet.
I am not going to debate the reasons why you don't support either format. None of my business. However, you do not have the right to use your reasons as a reason to discourage others. Based on what you have posted in this thread, most folks don't even think like you even when evaluating whether to get in either format. For some, its the price of the players, for some its the price of the software, for some its which studio supports which format, for some its none of these. Whatever their reason are, they do not need your biases in the mix.
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Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
Please be so kind as to point out where I have failed the English language in my ability to type or read or function as a human being? I'll await your petty remark as well as I am sure you will have something.
Failed the English language in your ability to function as a human being?
You're not making any sense.
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Originally Posted by nightflier
Nielson ratings shouldn't be dismissed or written off. If my business depended on movie sales, I certainly would value the information. That said, I still would say the same thing about why they do not represent the whole picture:
1. While sales number for a single store can still be accurate, once numbers are aggregated nation wide, or even worldwide, they become statistics, and thus estimates with margins of error.
First off, the Soundscan and Videoscan numbers are not conflated from a small sample of stores. Rather, they are 100% samples from nearly all of the major retail chains, except for Wal-Mart, along with a multitude of indie stores and regional chains. Unless Wal-Mart's sales trends fundamentally differ from what sells at Best Buy, Borders, Amazon, Target, Circuit City, FYE, K-Mart, etc., their exclusion will not impact on the rankings significantly.
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Originally Posted by nightflier
2. Small percentage variations, for example between the sale of BR & HDDVD disks of the same movie, can be significant. For example, they can be smaller than the margin of error.
You won't get a high error rate with as large a sample size as Nielson uses. Because of the small size of the HD-DVD/Blu-ray market, you can get big swings in the week to week rankings (though from what I've seen, as the HD optical market has grown this year, the trend fluctuations have slowed down considerably and we're seeing a lot more consistency from week to week), but Nielson's ability to accurately report the market swings in this specific market is not impacted because their sample captures such a high percentage of the universe for that market.
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Originally Posted by nightflier
3. Small percentage variations, can get blown out of proportion once the media, the industry, and the flag-waivers get a hold of them. This is not Nielson's fault, but it bears mentioning, because I think the Nielson head honchos do read them - or at the very least their lawyers do.
For about the past three months, Blu-ray's week-to-week market share has consistently stayed in the 60% to 67% range. This seems to indicate that with the larger number of titles in both formats to choose from, it's now Blu-ray's larger installed user base, rather than whichever format has more new releases in a given week, that drives the market. This is a strong contrast from a year ago when the market share would dramatically shift from week to week depending on which format had the hot new release of the week coming out.
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Originally Posted by nightflier
4. If previous data collection bodies, that we all believed to be "impartial," from Billboard to Videoscan can be found to be biased, then we can't really say that Nielson's numbers are completely reliable either or whether their reliability can change over time as pressure mounts in this format war.
FYI, Billboard's rankings are based on the Nielson data. The data manipulation that occurred in their previous charting was the exact reason why Billboard was one of the strongest proponents of Soundscan when it came on line. They knew that the manual tabulation method was unacceptably flawed, and helped to develop the more objective point-of-sale system.
Again, you're bringing up possibilities over what could happen without any evidence that the data itself is inaccurate or not representative.
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Originally Posted by nightflier
5. Nielson exists because the industry pays them. Their existence depends to some extent, perhaps a very small extent, on keeping the industry happy (kind of like Sound & Vision reviewers). While this may only be a small influence, is it enough to exceed the margin of error?
They keep the industry happy by simply reporting the data accurately. That presumption of accuracy is why the industry subscribes to their data. Even with accurate data, the reports provide more than enough for the studios and record companies to spin the sales trends to suit whatever marketing or competitive objectives they might have. If Nielson got caught tinkering with the data to give one recording company/movie studio an advantage over another, how long do you think before they'd get dropped by the other companies or sued for breach of contract?
The Nielson Soundscan/Videoscan was created in the first place because the industry needed access to accurate tracking data more than they needed any buzz associated with gaming the sales charts (which did not even report unit sales). Like I asked before, if the Nielson data is flawed and does not represent an accurate picture of the actual sales trends, then what alternative would you propose, knowing from the outset that Wal-Mart's data won't get released to anybody?
Before the Soundscan point-of-sale reporting came about, the only unit data came from the RIAA, and they would only verify how many units got shipped and how many units got returned by wholesale distributors. Good enough for Gold and Platinum certification, but not good enough for time sensitive weekly tracking reports.
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Originally Posted by nightflier
Look, I don't have hard numbers, I simply don't have that kind of insider information and I don't subscribe to NDP. I am only advising caution before everybody starts buying into one format or the other. There is variability in the numbers and there is industry influence.
...
So despite all the positive news from the BR camp, I still think there are real challenges to jumping with both feet into that pond:
- Not all studios are with BR
- HDDVD has pretty much the same technical advantages
- Microsoft is a big player and really hasn't shown itself (yet?)
- Both BR & HDDVD only represent a very small share of the movie market
- Sales figures may not be a 100% complete picture [we've been discussing that here]
- Either format involves a considerable financial investment for most people, adding to their trepidation
- VOD is vying for the same consumers
- Downloaded content is possible in Japan, so how long until it's here?
Looking at how the market is setup does not require access to hard numbers. Blu-ray has more manufacturer support, more studio support, more disc releases, higher share of the domestic box office exclusive to the format, etc. HD-DVD is lowering hardware prices because they have to. Toshiba is paying off studios to drop Blu-ray because they have to.
The HD disc market structure as currently situated simply puts HD-DVD at a disadvantage. You can claim that it's too early to decide one way or another, but the fact is that HD-DVD cannot sustain itself indefinitely without significant assistance from somewhere. The Paramount/Dreamworks announcement was a start, for one thing, it ensured that the format war will not conclude by the end of this year as many analysts had forecast. But, HD-DVD needs more equally market-changing announcements if it expects to remain viable through the end of next year. I think The Digital Bits' recommendation remains sound -- best not to invest in a HD format right now, but if you buy into one of the two formats, Blu-ray is the better choice.
As I've said elsewhere, downloading is not an issue so long as those files come locked down with time/view limits. Exploding content is nothing more than a horizontal move away from PPV and rentals. Open files create formidable competition for HD-DVD and Blu-ray, but ridiculously locked down content does not affect the market.
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Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
That was a good one, use the definition of a 'troll' and then re-work it so that it seems that it doesn't apply to you. Nice one. A troll is indeed someone who posts with the intent of causing arguments, but there is NEVER any mention that it has to be the original poster. You could be a troll and post anywhere on the thread that you like, it's called Troll-jacking. Please stop trying to use your reverse wordology and wikipedia to baffle us. We are not impressed.
I kinda thought you had two personalities LOL. So neither of the entities in you are impressed?? Well, at least you guys are in sync LOL.
Okay, so from now on I will post so that everyone can sing kumbaya LOLOL
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Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
Please be so kind as to point out where I have failed the English language in my ability to type or read or function as a human being? I'll await your petty remark as well as I am sure you will have something.
Boy, and you talk about seeing Terrence's "true colors" thru the "smoke screen"?! :cornut:
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Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
Apparently we are not allowed to disagree with anyone on this site, when we do we get lambasted by the rest.
Oh, feel free to be as disagreeable as you want, it's much more entertaining that way! :6:
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