As reported by BDA & news from IFA

BDA says that Blu-ray software is out selling HD-DVD by 67% in the U.S. and by higher numbers worldwide.

According to reports from IFA Warner did not attend the HD-DVD press conference but did attend BDA's. Warner vowed to put out more Blu-ray titles in the 4th quarter than they did in the previously 3 quarters combined. Wow, could this tip the scales back from the Paramount buy off?

Hitachi has a Blu-ray camcorder hitting in October.

Acer has joined the BDA.

HD-DVD landed a solid blow but it seems Blu-ray wasn't stunned. I hope if you all find other news on the war, for either side, you will contribute. I hate to keep starting new threads on this but we really don't have any way to compile the various news bits and I don't want pertinent info buried in an already started thread.

I think Warner just had more to announce with their Blu-ray plans, since speculation has been running rampant regarding their future HD plans. For one thing, they still have a lot of titles already out on HD-DVD that have not yet come out on Blu-ray.

Just yesterday, a LA Times article on the format war caused all sorts of buzzing around the various home theater discussions because it implied that Toshiba's discussing financial terms to lure Warner into dropping Blu-ray and going HD-DVD exclusive. Today though, Bill Hunt of The Digital Bits confirmed with a Warner Home Video rep that the LA Times info is three weeks old. Apparently, Toshiba entered into discussions with Warner at the same time they were talking to Paramount/Dreamworks. Paramount/Dreamworks took Toshiba's offer, while Warner rejected it.

I think Warner still sees more benefit to playing both sides, and they still have their TotalHD hybrid disc introduction coming up next year. If Warner drops Blu-ray, then they would also wind up dumping their own proprietary hybrid format before it even comes to market and give up a significant portion of their current 40% share of the HD disc market. At this point, I think Warner sees more dollar signs by steering the market towards a hybrid solution, since they would be in position to collect licensing fees from every disc sold if major studios wind up adopting the TotalHD format as a compromise.

You want speculation? How about Warner partnering up with Universal, Fox, and/or Disney in support of TotalHD? That could potentially ice the format war, and put considerable pressure on Paramount/Dreamworks and even Sony to drop their exclusivity. I think Warner's got their own plans cooking, and they know that they hold a lot of sway as to which direction this format war goes.

Some other Blu-ray news that came out of IFA included JVC displaying their Blu-ray prototype, and Sharp introducing their own Blu-ray player that they will market under the AQUOS label (the first non-LCD TV product that will be marketed as part of the AQUOS lineup). The Sharp player looks interesting because apparently, they designed and built most of the internal components themselves, and one of the features of that player is a 10-second menu boot-up time.

I wonder how the hybrid will work, will it have BR on one side and HD-DVD on the other? Will the hybrid have any effect on the storage capability which is BR's one big benefit? I personally would love to see them put out the hybrid and all the studios jump on it. That way no consumer will lose. It would be a miracle for any of the big corps to yield to their greed and give up the exclusivity but think of the good will. The hybrid could be the one time the consumer might actually win.

Nice idea but would they let us win one.I wonder if there would be a problem with thickness of the discs like the DualDisc seemed to have.

bill

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Woochifer

Some other Blu-ray news that came out of IFA included JVC displaying their Blu-ray prototype, and Sharp introducing their own Blu-ray player that they will market under the AQUOS label (the first non-LCD TV product that will be marketed as part of the AQUOS lineup). The Sharp player looks interesting because apparently, they designed and built most of the internal components themselves, and one of the features of that player is a 10-second menu boot-up time.

---

First of all, I want to tip my hat to Sharp for being the first company to address the single most annoying problem with either HD format: long boot ups. If I wanted to wait that long, I'd watch the #$@%$# movie on my computer!

I think if Sharp markets their player with the Aquos name, they will have a huge advantage. Almost every review about the Aquos displays is positive (with the exception of the banding issue). What this means is that they will bring a player to market with a name that is already associated with performance, quality, and high-fi. Equally important is that every Aquos TV owner will want the associated Aquos player. If they offer a feature that gives the combo a performance advantage over competing players (maybe a true HDMI 1.3 link between the two?), then they will also provide a real advantage to their loyal customers.

Now if that player also includes SACD playback, I'll get off the fence and buy one too!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by musicman1999

Nice idea but would they let us win one.I wonder if there would be a problem with thickness of the discs like the DualDisc seemed to have.

bill

---

Those damn DualDiscs...they were so quirky on any machine I put them into.

It's interesting that Sharp, Samsung & Toshiba were known as cheap or entry level gear until putting out high quality TV's. Now will the quality spill over into the rest of the products.

Sharp has the most to prove in my book. Maybe this BR player will be the step in the right direction.

I had my doubts about Samsung. Their first upscaling DVD players weren't that great but I've been impressed with their BR player. I'm miffed they don't answer their emails though.

Toshiba, I don't know about. I haven't heard anything negative about the HD-DVD players reliability.

I think the BR loading issue is blown out of proportion carried over from the first gen players. Compared to my Denon 1600, the Samsung BD-P1200 is just as fast.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nightflier

First of all, I want to tip my hat to Sharp for being the first company to address the single most annoying problem with either HD format: long boot ups. If I wanted to wait that long, I'd watch the #$@%$# movie on my computer!

I think if Sharp markets their player with the Aquos name, they will have a huge advantage. Almost every review about the Aquos displays is positive (with the exception of the banding issue). What this means is that they will bring a player to market with a name that is already associated with performance, quality, and high-fi. Equally important is that every Aquos TV owner will want the associated Aquos player. If they offer a feature that gives the combo a performance advantage over competing players (maybe a true HDMI 1.3 link between the two?), then they will also provide a real advantage to their loyal customers.

Now if that player also includes SACD playback, I'll get off the fence and buy one too!

---

Thats what you're doing, basically.
Every DVD , and now HD players, are basically computers.
A lot of the super cheap DVD players have computer dvd play only drives, not much market for those now that dvd burners are so cheap.
Anyway, wonder just how much more bad news the HDDVD camp will have to get before
they finally accept the inevitable.
I bet Toshiba has already figured it out, they are just trying to squeak out of their self created mess with as many fingers and toes as possible:1:

Pixel, just as I told Wooch, this isn't over by a long shot - calling one side the winner is only bellowing on the flames of war, right at a time that there could be a breakthrough in both sides working together on a dual-format. For the consumer, that is still the preferable option.

What is remarkable is that neither Toshiba nor Microsoft is throwing in the towel. And they certainly have a lot of people working for them to give them info that we simple folk don't have - maybe they know something we don't. I expect this format war to carry on for some time and maybe even until both formats are eclipsed by something else like HD downloads.

Right now, it looks like BR is going to follow in the footsteps of SACD and HD-DVD the path of DVD-A. But at this point, both formats are such a small portion of the overall movie sales market, that a reversal is still quite possible without upsetting the industry too much. We can't discount the price-advantage that HD-DVD has, and this could be crucial - if the price difference also becomes a factor in the individual disks, it could very well pull ahead. Or what if one of the major studios shifted sides suddenly? It's not like there isn't a lot of shifting going on, right now.

Bottom line, anything is still possible because both formats are still marginal.

Toshiba's cheap price hasn't seemed to help them thus far. It's true though, we have no idea what is being worked on, and the war isn't over until it's over.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mr Peabody

Toshiba's cheap price hasn't seemed to help them thus far. It's true though, we have no idea what is being worked on, and the war isn't over until it's over.

---

Its over.
Be great if both could surrive, more choices for the consumer, but there really is no reason to have two HD dvd DISCS.
A hybrid player would be easy, probably just have to refocus the laser for the thicker
coating on the HDDVD, but theres really no reason for such a thing.
People with HDDVD will join those with DIVIX and Cartrigevision, and laserdisc
(Ihave several thousand thousand dollars worth of those)
On the bright side you wont have spent too much on your player and software.
So its a good thing that this format war be over early.
HDDVD is a dinosaur, and that light over the horizon is where the asteroid hit:1:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pixelthis

Its over.
Be great if both could surrive, more choices for the consumer, but there really is no reason to have two HD dvd DISCS.
A hybrid player would be easy, probably just have to refocus the laser for the thicker
coating on the HDDVD, but theres really no reason for such a thing.
People with HDDVD will join those with DIVIX and Cartrigevision, and laserdisc
(Ihave several thousand thousand dollars worth of those)
On the bright side you wont have spent too much on your player and software.
So its a good thing that this format war be over early.
HDDVD is a dinosaur, and that light over the horizon is where the asteroid hit:1:

---

If it's over, then why is it still going on? I've been rooting for Blu-ray since the beginning, just 'cause it sounds cooler, but now I am almost tempted to wish for HD-DVD to win, just to shut you up.

I just think the dual discs would be a good compromise and it would be nice if no consumer had to lose this time. Just because people have laser discs, DVD-A, Mini disc, or whatever, is no reason this type of penalty has to continue to be paid by early adoptors who happens to choose the wrong format.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies

If it's over, then why is it still going on? I've been rooting for Blu-ray since the beginning, just 'cause it sounds cooler, but now I am almost tempted to wish for HD-DVD to win, just to shut you up.

---

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

1. In order to optimize video encoding for both formats encoding has to be done seperately. Doing this is very expensive, and one of the reasons Paramount went to HD DVD exclusive recently. It was the cheaper of the two platforms to encode and replicate for. In the short run this was a wise decision as this limits their exposure to HDM cost wise while the market is still pretty small. In the long run it is a huge mistake because you leave income from the largest player base on the table. The peak bitrates of both formats are not the same. You could never use the encoding from Pirates of the Carribean on Bluray on HD DVD. The video bitrate goes way over HD DVD specifications. Now one could argue that VC-1 wouldn't need a bitrate over the HD DVD standard, but Disney would definately argue you down if you are looking for ultimate video transparency.

2. Retailers and manufacturers are pissed about this format war. Retail stores are forced to make room for both formats which digs into their money makers floor space. That would be DVD. Blockbuster, Best buy, Walmart, Target, have already decided that their floor space would be either mostly, or all dedicated to Bluray. I am sure before too long alot of other retailers will also make that decision. That is because profit margins are higher on bluray than on HD DVD. This is a mistake on the part of Toshiba's in that they raced their player prices to the bottom too quickly. Stores just do not make enough profit on their players to justify the shelf space so Toshiba has to buy encaps to make up for that fact. For Manufacturers, the whole object of HD players is to increase their profits over DVD players(which yields them very little these days). With Toshiba having three players below $500, and one above that amount, it leaves no one else but toshiba to make profits because the prices are so low already. Venturer has announced a cheaper standalone player than toshiba cheapest player, but everyone knows that player with be at the same quality as a Apex DVD player, and they have to sell millions of them to turn a decent profit overall. Onyko has to wonder if they are going to sell a decent amount of their players to turn a profit in a market so driven by low prices. As a constrast, every bluray player makes a manufacturer a nice profit. That is why player prices are higher, and there are many more manufacturers making bluray players. What all manufacturers WANT to see is a single format, which allows for quicker adoption, sells more players, and keeps profits high for a while.

3. Consumer are confused as hell with both formats. Nobody wants a brick if they choose the wrong format. So you buy nothing, and wait to see somebody else buy the brick. This slows down the adoption rate, and may just kill off both formats because of lack of sufficient sales.

4. Studio support is about even amoung the money makers. However right now catalog titles are not selling very well, and HD DVD has the most catalog titles released. Catalogs value will not materialize until after each format matures. So the big bucks come from day and date releases, which HD DVD will only have to majors up to the holiday season. Almost all of Bluray releases will be day and date with their DVD counterpart which should guarantee the format will do well over the holiday season. I know for a fact there will be no further movement this year by any studio, and quite frankly was surprised at Paramounts move. When I talk to my friends who work at the studio(I was an employee there for 10 years) in their home entertainment department, they too were surprised as well as they love working with bluray, and where preparing titles that had features unique to the format. This lets me know that the decision came from the parent company, and not Paramount itself no matter what is said in the press.

No matter what we think as consumers, we are not going to make the decision about who wins. That ultimately will be made by the Studios based on the sales performance of their titles. At this stage a Warner defection to Bluray would be the kiss of death to HD DVD. And with weekly sales ration very close to 2:1 favor for bluray, this christmas will be critical for both formats.

Based on the information that I have gleaned over the last year from a variety of sources both within the industry, and outside the industry, Bluray was MY choice. I bought my HD DVD player first, and collected 131 titles within 6 months. When I realized that all of the films that I really like are bluray exclusives I bought a PS3 based on my needs, its flexibility, upgradability, features and price. That was four months ago, and I have replaced 175 of my DVD titles with Bluray upgrades. So as you can see I am pretty invested in both at this stage. I have purchased bluray titles only in the last four months. I do plan on getting Transformers and Shrek the Third on HD DVD, but that is about it for this year. My pre-order list for bluray is up to 40 titles till the end of the year and growing by the week.

Based on overall support bluray has it all of the way. From the studios, to retail and manufacturing. They have so much support that in the long run I think it has the legs to win the war. That's just MY OPINION. This whole war has turn the internet AV sites into a polarizing mess, and has just made visiting so many sites a very unpleasant thing. I want it to end soon....sooner than yesterday, and quicker than tomorrow. Reality will not grant me my wish though.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

---

Yeah, well we have this little troll problem around here since you left months ago, so I am just doing my duty by spraying some troll repellent every now and again. My signature is from The Office. I agree this stupid war is NOT over no matter how many times Pixelthis says that it is. We are talking about two huge companies with loads of resources that are going to battle this out for several more rounds of this fight. And the crucial thing is that this is a war where the winner might not even be the one that offers the superior product, but the one that fought harder in the war.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

1. In order to optimize video encoding for both formats encoding has to be done seperately. You could never use the encoding from Pirates of the Carribean on Bluray on HD DVD. The video bitrate goes way over HD DVD specifications. Now one could argue that VC-1 wouldn't need a bitrate over the HD DVD standard, but Disney would definately argue you down if you are looking for ultimate video transparency.

2. Retailers and manufacturers are pissed about this format war. Retail stores are forced to make room for both formats which digs into their money makers floor space. That would be DVD. Blockbuster, Best buy, Walmart, Target, have already decided that their floor space would be either mostly, or all dedicated to Bluray. I am sure before too long alot of other retailers will also make that decision. That is because profit margins are higher on bluray than on HD DVD. This is a mistake on the part of Toshiba's in that they raced their player prices to the bottom too quickly. Stores just do not make enough profit on their players to justify the shelf space so Toshiba has to buy encaps to make up for that fact. For Manufacturers, the whole object of HD players is to increase their profits over DVD players(which yields them very little these days). With Toshiba having three players below $500, and one above that amount, it leaves no one else but toshiba to make profits because the prices are so low already. Venturer has announced a cheaper standalone player than toshiba cheapest player, but everyone knows that player with be at the same quality as a Apex DVD player, and they have to sell millions of them to turn a decent profit overall.

3. Consumer are confused as hell with both formats. Nobody wants a brick if they choose the wrong format. So you buy nothing, and wait to see somebody else buy the brick. This slows down the adoption rate, and may just kill off both formats because of lack of sufficient sales.

4. Studio support is about even amoung the money makers. However right now catalog titles are not selling very well, and HD DVD has the most catalog titles released. Catalogs value will not materialize until after each format matures. So the big bucks come from day and date releases, which HD DVD will only have to majors up to the holiday season. Almost all of Bluray releases will be day and date with their DVD counterpart which should guarantee the format will do well over the holiday season. I know for a fact there will be no further movement this year by any studio, and quite frankly was surprised at Paramounts move. When I talk to my friends who work at the studio(I was an employee there for 10 years) in their home entertainment department, they too were surprised as well as they love working with bluray, and where preparing titles that had features unique to the format. This lets me know that the decision came from the parent company, and not Paramount itself no matter what is said in the press.

No matter what we think as consumers, we are not going to make the decision about who wins. That ultimately will be made by the Studios based on the sales performance of their titles. At this stage a Warner defection to Bluray would be the kiss of death to HD DVD. And with weekly sales ration very close to 2:1 favor for bluray, this christmas will be critical for both formats.

Based on the information that I have gleaned over the last year from a variety of sources both within the industry, and outside the industry, Bluray was MY choice.

Based on overall support bluray has it all of the way.

---

Good points Sir T...

Here are my responses (I shortened several of your quoted points to save space, but all your points were well argued in full...):

1. I think you can indeed have 1 encode for both (as WB has shown in many cases). VC-1 is the way to go, IMO. The reason why we don't is not because of optimal bitrates, but rather royalties for Sony. With duplicate VC-1 encodes, both formats will look equally good with no deterioration in quality for either from the "optimal" encodes Sony claims.

2. No argument on the retailers being pissed (I think we can add the consumers too)... As for the profit margins, I am also sure you are right in saying Blu-ray has a higher margin on standalones... they also have a smaller sell-through rate on these. Most folks using Blu-ray have bought the PS3, and that is hardly a margin king (although the games sure are).

As for Toshiba cutting off others from making a profit by lowering the cost of the players... Maybe you are right... But that has not stopped Venturer, nor has it stopped the new Chinese players from getting in on the game. I would not underestimate the power of low price with the average consumer. I think these Chinese players could be key to HD DVD's success (or failure). Once a certain market share potential is reached, the other players like Panasonic et al will jump on board and create higher quality players for video and audio enthusiasts... until then the Venturers of the world will get Joe6pack to come onboard.

3. I agree with the exception of killing off both formats. I am firmly in the camp that says both will be around for a *long* time to come. I don't see either dying off in the forseeable future.

4. While I too have gone on record as saying I was shocked at Paramount's move... I also confess to being quite happy at the news (as I am primarily in HD DVD's camp even though I own and buy both formats). In the case of Warner, I agree it would be a big blow to HD DVD if they went BR exclusive, but the word on the street is after the holidays, they are highly likely to go the other way. I would say it would be equally damaging to BR if this occured. I guess we will see, but I would not be shocked at all to see Warner firmly as an HD exclusive studio in January or February of next year (definitely not this year though). Personally if I were putting odds on a format having the upper hand based on studio support, I would now say HD DVD may have the upper hand. If Warner decides to stay neutral after the holidays, then we are in as much of a stalemate as we are in now.

I guess the bottom line is there are a lot of unknown variables right now. Way too many to call this either way. I believe both will coexist, but we shall see. This holiday season is key to answering many questions...

---Dave

I know this has been said before, but I for one am pissed that I can't buy any title on either format. That's why I'm still exclusively on DVD. I can buy any title and I know it will play on my player. Heck, if it's still a stalemate in January 2008, I might just buy that Oppo upconverting DVD player, rather than take my chances with a "brick."

I'm going to guess that 90% of consumers, like myself, are irritated enough at this war that they will wait this out for quite some time. Given how people have less to spend today than they have in a long time, they will probably wonder if they really need to make the move to HD or BR, even over the x-mas season. If a studio is going to make a move, they better do it before the holidays.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by drseid

Good points Sir T...

Here are my responses (I shortened several of your quoted points to save space, but all your points were well argued in full...):

---

Go ahead, take a bite out of me. LOL

Quote:

---

1. I think you can indeed have 1 encode for both (as WB has shown in many cases). VC-1 is the way to go, IMO. The reason why we don't is not because of optimal bitrates, but rather royalties for Sony. With duplicate VC-1 encodes, both formats will look equally good with no deterioration in quality for either from the "optimal" encodes Sony claims.

---

I do not think the bluray camp is convinced that VC-1 is all that. Sony, and I know Disney for sure really like AVC. I personally like AVC better based on a demo I attended at Buena Vista studios. The Disney engineers didn't seem all that impressed with VC-1 as they seem to think that VC-1 does too much smoothing after encoding. Also keep in mind that Microsoft get's royalties for VC-1 which why you probably will never see a Sony bluray product using VC-1. Disney likes to use high bitrates for their encoding as to them the picture seems more natural, and less digital looking. Microsoft seems to promote lower bitrates on VC-1, and that doesn't quite square with what Disney is looking for.

Quote:

---

2. No argument on the retailers being pissed (I think we can add the consumers too)... As for the profit margins, I am also sure you are right in saying Blu-ray has a higher margin on standalones... they also have a smaller sell-through rate on these. Most folks using Blu-ray have bought the PS3, and that is hardly a margin king (although the games sure are).

---

That is a Sony issue only. From talking with Paidgeek from Bluray.com Sony is selling the PS3 to retailers so they make a small(very small) profit from the PS3. Sony appears to be taking the loss themselves. This is the reason retailers do not mind devoting a good size space for the PS3. If they didn't make a profit from it, then you would only see it offered on the retailers website, much like HD DVD players are on Walmarts and Targets but not in their stores. It seems lately that sales of standalones seems to be going bluray way as well. I think that its largely because of the visible floor space devoted to bluray as opposed to HD DVD.

Quote:

---

As for Toshiba cutting off others from making a profit by lowering the cost of the players... Maybe you are right... But that has not stopped Venturer, nor has it stopped the new Chinese players from getting in on the game. I would not underestimate the power of low price with the average consumer. I think these Chinese players could be key to HD DVD's success (or failure). Once a certain market share potential is reached, the other players like Panasonic et al will jump on board and create higher quality players for video and audio enthusiasts... until then the Venturers of the world will get Joe6pack to come onboard.

---

I think anyone who has bought a cheap DVD player knows that the quality just isn't there. My best friend went through 4 apex DVD players in less than a year. He has stated no more cheap chinese players in his house. I have heard this from quite a few folks. So I do not really think cheap low quality players are going to be HD DVD saving grace, especially considering they do not have full studio support. A cheap player only makes sense when you can purchase movies from ALL of the studios. Keep in mind, HD DVD has always been cheaper than bluray, however a cheap price hasn't landed more players in the field versus bluray. Studio commitment is really VERY important when you use price as a talking point. At this point cheap chinese players are vaporware since there has been no official announcement of there release. The Venturers will NOT be sold in Walmart or Target, and unsure whether Best Buy will carry them. This makes it difficult to guage whether they will sell in sufficiently large numbers to make a difference this holiday season.

Quote:

---

3. I agree with the exception of killing off both formats. I am firmly in the camp that says both will be around for a *long* time to come. I don't see either dying off in the forseeable future.

---

From my sources inside several studios make me believe differently. First, it is stupid to market two formats that essentially do the same thing. There is no history of any disc based media that do indentical things coexisting. When DVD was introduced, Laserdisc died very quickly. When beta and VHS slugged it out, the consumer chose VHS, and the pro's chose beta. Disney has already said they will not support both, Sony and Fox has also said the same. Not one studio has committed to long term support of both. I believe based on my sources that this holiday season will be critical for both camps. If the HD DVD camp sells as many players as predicted, you will see SOME studio's make a move. If bluray increases its sales lead beyond 2:1(well beyond) I know at least two studios will make a move in their direction.

Quote:

---

4. While I too have gone on record as saying I was shocked at Paramount's move... I also confess to being quite happy at the news (as I am primarily in HD DVD's camp even though I own and buy both formats). In the case of Warner, I agree it would be a big blow to HD DVD if they went BR exclusive, but the word on the street is after the holidays, they are highly likely to go the other way. I would say it would be equally damaging to BR if this occured. I guess we will see, but I would not be shocked at all to see Warner firmly as an HD exclusive studio in January or February of next year (definitely not this year though). Personally if I were putting odds on a format having the upper hand based on studio support, I would now say HD DVD may have the upper hand. If Warner decides to stay neutral after the holidays, then we are in as much of a stalemate as we are in now.

---

I think your word on the streets is not accurate at all. Warner is making a profit doing both formats, but they are not going to commit to doing this long term. Warner is going to look at software sales to see where the most sales are made. Titles they have released to both formats already has shown to favor bluray at a 2:1 clip, 300 had a wider ratio and still selling well on bluray. Facts do not support your contention that HD DVD has the upper hand in studio support. When you look world wide, you will find more studio's support bluray than HD DVD, especially within the european market where there has been several studios that went neutral as a result of bluray's larger player base. Here in the states you have Sony, Disney, Fox and Lionsgate in the bluray camp exclusive. Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks exclusive to HD DVD. Weinstein and Warner are neutral. Paramount and Universal are somewhat hampered by the fact they cannot release any Steven Spielberg directed titles, or any titles produced solely by Amblin Pictures. This also goes for Cappola titles as well. If Steven becomes unhappy with the way Paramount is handling Dreamworks, he has the right to shop the studio around to other bidders. This is pretty binding for both studio as some big sales are lost in the agreement. HD DVD has no presence in Japan to speak of, little or none in Australia, and got killed in Europe over the past several months by the PS3 effect. Don't think the studio are not looking at world wide player penitration of players.

I would also like to add that it doesn't make much sense to pay Paramount $150 million dollars to quit supporting bluray if Warner intended on going HD DVD exclusive in 2008. They could have kept the money and gained a studio. This action tells me that someone in the HD DVD camp could be going neutral at the beginning of the year, not someone going exclusive to them. The fact that the HD DVD PG courted Warner with a rather large offer, and was rebuffed points to the fact that Warner doesn't want to leave a single dollar on the table.

Quote:

---

I guess the bottom line is there are a lot of unknown variables right now. Way too many to call this either way. I believe both will coexist, but we shall see. This holiday season is key to answering many questions...

---Dave

---

Dave, you are correct. I however believe some things are taking shape that work towards deciding a winner. While I have a strong preference for bluray, I am not allowing my preference to cloud the facts, my knowledge of the industry I have worked in for 25 years, or my good common sense. In other words, I am not a rabid fanboy(or a unrabid one either LOL)

Good to see Sir T 'round these parts again.

I too have adopted the HD-DVD but will probably focus more on Blue-Ray. I became a bit disappointed by the overall selection and my XBOX's player needed updates to play certain titles (combo discs). I found both issues an annoyance.

I'm not ready to call the battle either. I will say that as an all-too-enthusiastic consumer I spend a fair amount of time in retail stores. I have yet to hear anyone comment on how overwhelmingly superior the HD-DVD catalogue was. I suspect the holidays may prove to be a huge push for Blue-Ray/PS3 hardware.

Warner announced at the BDA press conference during IFA that they plan to release more Blu-ray titles in the 4th quarter of this year than the previous 3 quarters put together. This doesn't seem like a move made by a company about to dump a format.

At first I didn't think the Chinese HD-DVD cheapos would make a difference but then when you look at the price of most entry level DVD players today, you can get a name brand for under $200.00. But price has surprisingly not played a big factor in the war.

Here comes words of shear wisdom....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nightflier

I know this has been said before, but I for one am pissed that I can't buy any title on either format. That's why I'm still exclusively on DVD. I can buy any title and I know it will play on my player. Heck, if it's still a stalemate in January 2008, I might just buy that Oppo upconverting DVD player, rather than take my chances with a "brick."

I'm going to guess that 90% of consumers, like myself, are irritated enough at this war that they will wait this out for quite some time. Given how people have less to spend today than they have in a long time, they will probably wonder if they really need to make the move to HD or BR, even over the x-mas season. If a studio is going to make a move, they better do it before the holidays.

---

That option is looking better and better every day.
Either blu or hddvd, both formats are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, and while an "upconverting" player won't increase resolution they tend to have a pretty good
picture.
After christmas toshiba will assess and fold.
This isn't like an audio format, there are hugh costs to mounting a video format.
Most in the industry and have decided on Blu-ray, and it will be the winner.
If you want to invest in one Blu is a safe bet, EVERYBODY is backing this one,
and it will be obvious even to self appointed "troll killer" with the thick skull that its pretty much over for HDDVD(TROLL defined as anyone who disagrees with him, BTW):1:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies

Here comes words of shear wisdom....

---

....or not. Seems that someone doesn't know the definition of the word TROLL.

FROM WIKIPEDIA
An Internet troll, or simply troll in Internet slang, is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an online community such as an online discussion forum or USENET, with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response.[1]

You know like saying that my speakers are junk and that my system is poor, etc etc. Or saying that Blu-ray has already won or that LCD is superior to anything else, etc etc.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies

....or not. Seems that someone doesn't know the definition of the word TROLL.

FROM WIKIPEDIA
An Internet troll, or simply troll in Internet slang, is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an online community such as an online discussion forum or USENET, with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response.[1]

You know like saying that my speakers are junk and that my system is poor, etc etc. Or saying that Blu-ray has already won or that LCD is superior to anything else, etc etc.

---

You see, this shows your basic lack of understanding of the English language.
I said that LCD will be the display standard, that it will replace the CRT as the main
type of display, and in many respects that has already happened.
Doesn't mean its better, just means its more popular.
VHS sucked compared to BETA, still won its "format war".
Audiophiles and videophiles go for something called "PQ", they are the ONLY ones who do.
Why do you think that in the mall 90% of the stores are shoe and clothes stores?
And that most cater to women?
Because they control the purse strings, and as long as they think "flat panels" are stylish, nothing else will have much of a chance.
As for quality LCD does have a decent picture, the differences in quality with other type displays are small.
And I never said that your system was "junk", just that you were rather ignorant of certain realities that shaped the construction of your gear,
and like most in this hobby these days, the quality of your gear was rather unbalanced.
Its a waste of money for "rich in texas" to be running B&W speakers with a low to midline receiver, he'd be better off with a cheaper set,
because the potential of his speakers aren't being realized, so why pay for it?
Likewise the price range of some of your gear is rather disparete, if you are on a long upgrade path, great, some of your nicer stuff is waiting to
"catch up" with upgrades in other areas.
But I think that you would be better served with equipment more closely matched is all.
You're wasting potential if a neat piece of gear is matched to lower line stuff, and you are still paying for that potential.
So why pay for what you're not using?
SPEAKERS are the most important part of a system, should cost as much as the other stuff combined, at least.
But if your prices are correct than you don't have near enough speaker for ten grand worth of gear.
But that is just my OPINON after all (don't wanna be labeled a Troll or something)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pixelthis

You see, this shows your basic lack of understanding of the English language.
I said that LCD will be the display standard, that it will replace the CRT as the main
type of display, and in many respects that has already happened.
Doesn't mean its better, just means its more popular.
VHS sucked compared to BETA, still won its "format war".
Audiophiles and videophiles go for something called "PQ", they are the ONLY ones who do.
Why do you think that in the mall 90% of the stores are shoe and clothes stores?
And that most cater to women?

---

Please enlighten me on the English language.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies

Please enlighten me on the English language.

---

At my age there simply isn't enough time:(

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pixelthis

At my age there simply isn't enough time:(

---

What a shame.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

I do not think the bluray camp is convinced that VC-1 is all that. Sony, and I know Disney for sure really like AVC. Also keep in mind that Microsoft get's royalties for VC-1 which why you probably will never see a Sony bluray product using VC-1.


That is a Sony issue only. From talking with Paidgeek from Bluray.com Sony is selling the PS3 to retailers so they make a small(very small) profit from the PS3. Sony appears to be taking the loss themselves. It seems lately that sales of standalones seems to be going bluray way as well. I think that its largely because of the visible floor space devoted to bluray as opposed to HD DVD.



I think anyone who has bought a cheap DVD player knows that the quality just isn't there. Keep in mind, HD DVD has always been cheaper than bluray, however a cheap price hasn't landed more players in the field versus bluray. Studio commitment is really VERY important when you use price as a talking point. At this point cheap chinese players are vaporware since there has been no official announcement of there release. The Venturers will NOT be sold in Walmart or Target, and unsure whether Best Buy will carry them. This makes it difficult to guage whether they will sell in sufficiently large numbers to make a difference this holiday season.



I think your word on the streets is not accurate at all. Warner is making a profit doing both formats, but they are not going to commit to doing this long term. Warner is going to look at software sales to see where the most sales are made. Titles they have released to both formats already has shown to favor bluray at a 2:1 clip, 300 had a wider ratio and still selling well on bluray. Facts do not support your contention that HD DVD has the upper hand in studio support. When you look world wide, you will find more studio's support bluray than HD DVD, especially within the european market where there has been several studios that went neutral as a result of bluray's larger player base. Don't think the studio are not looking at world wide player penitration of players.

I would also like to add that it doesn't make much sense to pay Paramount $150 million dollars to quit supporting bluray if Warner intended on going HD DVD exclusive in 2008. They could have kept the money and gained a studio. This action tells me that someone in the HD DVD camp could be going neutral at the beginning of the year, not someone going exclusive to them. The fact that the HD DVD PG courted Warner with a rather large offer, and was rebuffed points to the fact that Warner doesn't want to leave a single dollar on the table.

---

Point taken on Microsoft and VC-1.... I disagree about its inferiority to any of the other encodes (and I personally prefer it to MPEG-2 unless a very high bitrate is used on a dual-layer BR disc). That said, I am sure HD DVD chose that for the same reason Sony chose MPEG-2 for BR... royalties. I doubt picture quality had much to do with it for either camp... although MPEG-2 would not work well for HD-DVD at all due to the lower disc layer space.

As for the PS3, I never claimed it was a loss leader for retailers. Rather I said it was no margin king, and I maintain that. The retailers make their money on the games (and so does Sony, for that matter).

As for the Venturer HD DVD player, I have heard differently about Walmart carrying it. I have heard they will indeed, and BB may (but it is not confirmed to the best of my knowledge). Target I am sure you are right when you say they are out, but I dont believe they have made any formal statement either.

In the case of Warner going to HD DVD exclusive, next year will let us know who is right, but I am highly confident I am on this one. They have always been a strong HD DVD supporter, and their jettisoning of a key person in charge of the dual format strategy only strengthens my belief here. Even many BR supporters on the boards are preparing for this. Of course it is all speculation until an announcement is made either way next year. Warner has gone on record saying that they have received offers from both sides... now they just need to decide what is in their best interest after the holiday season.

As for 300, it is a bad example sales comparison-wise IMO because the HD DVD was a combo disc that cost $5 more than the BR. I, like most others who loathe combo discs (at a higher price point) always will buy the BR version of a title when they offer the HD DVD that way. I personally believe the combo disc is not long for this world... terrible idea, IMO unless the pricing is the same. Warner and others have to know this by now.

As for Worldwide... China is the big fish, and with CH DVD, they have in essence decided to support HD DVD as the players are compatible with the format (and the reverse appears true as well for US sales). It is true they are vaporware right *now*, but come later this year in China, and next year in the US they will not be. Again, I maintain Joe6pack will indeed buy these cheap players -- especially at a sub $100 street price point. They may complain about the cheap quality in time, but in the short-run it will equate to market penetration for HD DVD (or so I believe) as it will be an inexpensive way to not only play their DVDs, but HD DVDs as well for the studios that offer them.

The BR player lead on standalone players is for a month, and I am quite confident it will be short-lived if not already gone by now... that said, I could be wrong. Again, only time will tell if this is a short-lived anomaly as I believe, or a trend as you do... We shall see.

Lots of fun ahead for both formats... I am still angry that the two sides could not come to an agreement in the first place like most (I too remember VHS vs. Beta and was on the Beta side), but as things stand now I don't think either side is in a position to even consider declaring victory in the forseeable future.

---Dave

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

That is a Sony issue only. From talking with Paidgeek from Bluray.com Sony is selling the PS3 to retailers so they make a small(very small) profit from the PS3. Sony appears to be taking the loss themselves. This is the reason retailers do not mind devoting a good size space for the PS3. If they didn't make a profit from it, then you would only see it offered on the retailers website, much like HD DVD players are on Walmarts and Targets but not in their stores.

---

Can't really argue the rest of your points because I really don't know enough to argue either way.

However, this particular point needs some clarification. I am friends with both a manager at BB, and a friend who is a manager of a GameStop store. Hardware sales account for very little profit. We are talking maybe $5-10 per console. Thats for the console. Retailers don't make much if anything on them. Thats why they try to load you up on games, accessories, and the extended warrenty. This is for both the PS3 and the XBOX 360.

So, its not really true that small profit dictates shelf space entirely. Retailers are probably making at least the $5-10 per console on a dedicated HD-DVD player.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by drseid

Point taken on Microsoft and VC-1.... I disagree about its inferiority to any of the other encodes (and I personally prefer it to MPEG-2 unless a very high bitrate is used on a dual-layer BR disc). That said, I am sure HD DVD chose that for the same reason Sony chose MPEG-2 for BR... royalties. I doubt picture quality had much to do with it for either camp... although MPEG-2 would not work well for HD-DVD at all due to the lower disc layer space.

---

Let's get the internet spread FUD out of the way first. This is no direct connection to inferior picture quality with the combination of BD-25 and MPEG-2. This is misinformation at the highest order(not saying you started it). Here is a bluray title review with both MPEG-2, BD-25, and a comparison of the same movie on HD DVD with VC-1

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/failuretolaunch.html

Notice these key words in this paragraph

Oddly, they continue to use different codecs for the different formats, with the Blu-ray getting the MPEG-2 treatment, and HD DVD getting VC-1. Despite this difference, both transfers come from the same master, are presented in 2.35:1 widescreen and 1080p video, and look identical.

Here is another two:
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/chronos.html
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/tony...anclassic.html

So it's not the combination of MPEG-2 and BD-25 that leads to picture quality problems, its poor print condition.

MPEG-2 and HD DVD don't mix. You do have to have to use a higher bitrate with MPEG-2, and HD DVD maximum video bitrate is only 29.4mbps which with the combination of this codec, and alot of action, would exceed the bit budget of the system. VC-1 is perfect for HD DVD.

Quote:

---

As for the PS3, I never claimed it was a loss leader for retailers. Rather I said it was no margin king, and I maintain that. The retailers make their money on the games (and so does Sony, for that matter).

---

I think this is a minor point not worth debating over.

Quote:

---

As for the Venturer HD DVD player, I have heard differently about Walmart carrying it. I have heard they will indeed, and BB may (but it is not confirmed to the best of my knowledge). Target I am sure you are right when you say they are out, but I dont believe they have made any formal statement either.

---

“We have no plans to have Venturer in our stores this holiday,” Wal-Mart merchandise spokeswoman Melissa O’Brien said. “We will continue to offer the best values on popular HD DVD and Blu-ray products from leading consumer brands like Sony, Samsung, Philips, Toshiba and RCA.”

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.a...leid=CA6473655

Target has made their position known as well:

http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/26/ta...ay-as-the-way/

Quote:

---

In the case of Warner going to HD DVD exclusive, next year will let us know who is right, but I am highly confident I am on this one. They have always been a strong HD DVD supporter, and their jettisoning of a key person in charge of the dual format strategy only strengthens my belief here. Even many BR supporters on the boards are preparing for this. Of course it is all speculation until an announcement is made either way next year. Warner has gone on record saying that they have received offers from both sides... now they just need to decide what is in their best interest after the holiday season.

---

I think you have some of your facts twisted. Steve Nickerson is a former employee of Toshiba, and a major proponent of HD DVD. His public face says he was a proponent of neutrality for Warner, however those within the industry know he is very pro HD DVD. His departure does not represent Warner's impending exclusivity. Warner is a major member of the BDA, and probably the only studio making a profit from neutrality. They also have been paying big attention to the sales figures of their titles released on both formats. WE both know where that stands. Warner is going to remain neutral because it makes good business sense for them. Bluray movies are outselling HD DVD currently YTD at a 61:39 percent here in the states. In Europe its 70:30 YTD. In Japan its 94:6 YTD. I do not think Warner will ignore this.

Quote:

---

As for 300, it is a bad example sales comparison-wise IMO because the HD DVD was a combo disc that cost $5 more than the BR. I, like most others who loathe combo discs (at a higher price point) always will buy the BR version of a title when they offer the HD DVD that way. I personally believe the combo disc is not long for this world... terrible idea, IMO unless the pricing is the same. Warner and others have to know this by now.

---

Unfortunately you cannot dismiss what you don't like. I like to deal with the facts. Both formats got the release, bluray outsold HD DVD by more than 2:1, and 300 is still the top selling bluray disc, outselling even the newest HD DVD releases after more than a month on the market. Cost aside, the facts are there.

Quote:

---

As for Worldwide... China is the big fish, and with CH DVD, they have in essence decided to support HD DVD as the players are compatible with the format (and the reverse appears true as well for US sales). It is true they are vaporware right *now*, but come later this year in China, and next year in the US they will not be. Again, I maintain Joe6pack will indeed buy these cheap players -- especially at a sub $100 street price point. They may complain about the cheap quality in time, but in the short-run it will equate to market penetration for HD DVD (or so I believe) as it will be an inexpensive way to not only play their DVDs, but HD DVDs as well for the studios that offer them.

---

You and I know that CH-DVD and HD DVD are not compatible. They are based on simular designs, but they are not compatible formats. That's a fact, an undisputable fact. The fact that they are based on simular designs doesn't necessarily mean that HD DVD will benefit from its manufacture. As of now, cheap chinese players are vaporware, and cannot be debated within the contexted of current events. Cheap players will only move joe6pack to buy when ALL studio support a single format. Nobody wants to buy a brick, not even a cheap brick. Considering all the bad press that the Chinese manufacturing sector has received recently, the American consumer may just pass these players up, cheap price and all. We'll see though.

We both agree that China is a big fish, and at IFA 2007 China Hualu, the only consumer electronics company owned by a branch of the Chinese government joined the BDA.

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/...28&newsLang=en

This is not vaporware, it has already happened.

Quote:

---

The BR player lead on standalone players is for a month, and I am quite confident it will be short-lived if not already gone by now... that said, I could be wrong. Again, only time will tell if this is a short-lived anomaly as I believe, or a trend as you do... We shall see.

---

Geeze, this is a powerful statement to make considering no one knows how long a sales lead is going to continue unless they can predict the future. The HD DVD PG should hire you right away!!!

Quote:

---

Lots of fun ahead for both formats... I am still angry that the two sides could not come to an agreement in the first place like most (I too remember VHS vs. Beta and was on the Beta side), but as things stand now I don't think either side is in a position to even consider declaring victory in the forseeable future.

---Dave

---

I am angry as well. However my anger is more strongly directed at Toshiba, because when Sony approached Toshiba and Warner with the idea to begin working on HDM on disc, Toshiba rebuffed them saying, and I quote" There are not enough HDTV in the field to even begin working on this". When Toshiba saw that Sony began organizing a pre-BDA group of manufacturers and studios that went ahead with developement on which is now called bluray, they rushed THEIR idea before the DVD forum for adoption. Quite a few companies(including the one I work for) obstained from voting on HD DVD. The most common reason stated was this forum was designed for the promotion of the DVD format, not a high definition format. Also many of those same companies were already envolved in the developement of the Bluray format. Sony had already given in and withdrew their specs for the developement of the DVD format, and Toshiba could have done the same this time around if it weren't for their desire to continue getting the same kind of royalties it is currently getting from the DVD format. In the end, both sides greed made it impossible to unify.

We disagree without even calling each other names. This has to be a presidence of some sort in the history of this war online.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Groundbeef

Can't really argue the rest of your points because I really don't know enough to argue either way.

However, this particular point needs some clarification. I am friends with both a manager at BB, and a friend who is a manager of a GameStop store. Hardware sales account for very little profit. We are talking maybe $5-10 per console. Thats for the console. Retailers don't make much if anything on them. Thats why they try to load you up on games, accessories, and the extended warrenty. This is for both the PS3 and the XBOX 360.

So, its not really true that small profit dictates shelf space entirely. Retailers are probably making at least the $5-10 per console on a dedicated HD-DVD player.

---

I did say they are making a small profit, though I do not know what that amount is. So a standalone HD DVD player gives them the same profit as a PS3. Interesting....

One of my close friends is a manager at a best buy near me. He says that the profit they can make DOES determine the amount of shelf space they will give. Maybe it doesn't for gaming machines, but that is certainly true of televisions, DVD players, appliances and various other goods.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

First, it is stupid to market two formats that essentially do the same thing. There is no history of any disc based media that do indentical things coexisting.

---

Well I'd mention Intel & AMD, but those aren't exactly disks. But if we have to limit it to disk wars, isn't wat you describe exactly how the SACD & DVD-A feud unfolded? And some brick-owning die-hards would argue, it still rages on. If I remember right (thanks bobsticks for reminding us), DVD-A came late to the party, eventually had the larger catalog, including more hit/modern titles, more shelf-space in the stores, more support with disk-player manufacturers, and well, they just about fizzled out, now. All the while, SACD, like the proverbial turtle racing the hare, slowly but surely won the race (if you can call it a win). This recent scenario should be reason enough to remind us that format wars, like tribal conflicts, don't always end quickly or completely.

By the way, there are currently 3453 laserdisks for sale on eBay, including over 300 new ones.

Sir T., I certainly respect your insight into this industry and I can't argue against the numbers. But I've also learned that sudden changes, shifts, and product announcements can make a huge difference in volatile markets. What if there was an embarrassing corporate scandal at Sony or Disney? What if Microsoft software all of a sudden stopped working with BR disks because of some "bug"? Or how about if Venturer or another Chinese manufacturer made a cheap BR player instead, and it was a real hit, sent BR player sales tumbling and Panasonic and Samsung were to throw in the towel instead?

I know it's a stretch but it could happen. Or how about this one, and I'm really just shooting in the dark here - wild speculation at best - a new war were to suddenly start somewhere in the world and it affected transportation, production, or the financial markets? I mean, I'm really reaching for straws here, but let's just presume for the sake of argument, that such a wild, distant possibility would just happen to affect, oh, I dunno, electronic sales over the holiday season?

Anyhow, what I'm trying to say is that:

1. Format wars don't always end suddenly,
2. A lead in one format, however large or apparent, can always change,
3. Seemingly unrelated events, especially sudden ones, can dramatically change markets.

Hence the reason that most of the buying public is just going to wait this one out. And the real danger for both formats and the companies that support them, is that a third option emerges and makes the former two obsolete. That third option, IMO, is HD downloads.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nightflier

Well I'd mention Intel & AMD, but those aren't exactly disks. But if we have to limit it to disk wars, isn't wat you describe exactly how the SACD & DVD-A feud unfolded? And some brick-owning die-hards would argue, it still rages on. If I remember right (thanks bobsticks for reminding us), DVD-A came late to the party, eventually had the larger catalog, including more hit/modern titles, more shelf-space in the stores, more support with disk-player manufacturers, and well, they just about fizzled out, now. All the while, SACD, like the proverbial turtle racing the hare, slowly but surely won the race (if you can call it a win). This recent scenario should be reason enough to remind us that format wars, like tribal conflicts, don't always end quickly or completely.

---

No comparison to SACD and DVD-A. Both formats were stillborn at birth. SACD was because there were no post processing tools for either the studio, on in the players. Secondly it didn't have the support of the major record companies, and that goes for DVD-A as well. DVD-A didn't do well because they couldn't deliver 24/96khz multichannel on a consistant basis, and often what was sold didn't sound any better than CD, but just added surround. Neither was easy to hookup to anyone's receiver because of copy protection. Thirdly, the consumer wants and wanted mobile audio, audio they could put on a pocket player and run. Neither audio format could do this.
HD DVD and Bluray do have industry support and can be hooked up to all current receivers. Apples and oranges comparison.

I think you are under the impression that one camp has to fold up and blow away for the other to win. Nope, that is not the case. One will be the dominate format and will continue to grow. The other will not disappear overnight, but it will not get the best titles, and from a studio perspective will not be well supported. Players may continue to sell to play disc already purchased, but it will not grow. That could play out for years even with the war officially over. The studios want this war over, the manufacturers want this war over, and to spir consumer interest in HDM on disc, this war has to be over quickly before the public is totally turned off.

Quote:

---

By the way, there are currently 3453 laserdisks for sale on eBay, including over 300 new ones.

---

And not a single player manufactured in 10 years, which is why there are 3453 laserdisc for sale.

Quote:

---

Sir T., I certainly respect your insight into this industry and I can't argue against the numbers. But I've also learned that sudden changes, shifts, and product announcements can make a huge difference in volatile markets. What if there was an embarrassing corporate scandal at Sony or Disney? What if Microsoft software all of a sudden stopped working with BR disks because of some "bug"? Or how about if Venturer or another Chinese manufacturer made a cheap BR player instead, and it was a real hit, sent BR player sales tumbling and Panasonic and Samsung were to throw in the towel instead?

---

A corporate scandal at Sony or Disney is not going to change their market strategy, or their support of Bluray. It would take the collaspe of the entire bluray superstructure to do that(you can throw Fox in as well). Microsoft does not have a single finger in the bluray camp, so the real question is What if HDi suddenly stopped working in HD DVD players because of bugs in the software? There are several chinese manufacturers that will be making bluray players in the future. They were welcomed into the BDA already. Have cheap chinese DVD players stop Panasonic and Samsung from making DVD players?

Quote:

---

I know it's a stretch but it could happen. Or how about this one, and I'm really just shooting in the dark here - wild speculation at best - a new war were to suddenly start somewhere in the world and it affected transportation, production, or the financial markets? I mean, I'm really reaching for straws here, but let's just presume for the sake of argument, that such a wild, distant possibility would just happen to affect, oh, I dunno, electronic sales over the holiday season?

---

The all sales of electronics would suffer, but it wouldn't stop either camp at this point from pushing their format

Quote:

---

Anyhow, what I'm trying to say is that:

1. Format wars don't always end suddenly,
2. A lead in one format, however large or apparent, can always change,
3. Seemingly unrelated events, especially sudden ones, can dramatically change markets.

Hence the reason that most of the buying public is just going to wait this one out. And the real danger for both formats and the companies that support them, is that a third option emerges and makes the former two obsolete. That third option, IMO, is HD downloads.

---

1. I understand, and have never stated that this war would end suddenly. However the war does not have to suddenly end for a victor to emerge.

2. When a industry(the studios) decide who they want to support, there is no change. See DIVX vs regular DVD on that one. Once the studios choose regular DVD, DIVX died never to return.

3. These same events would harm EVERYONE, not just bluray or HD DVD.

The infrastructure for downloads is a looooong way off. Industry survey's already indicated movie downloads already are losing steam. For HD movies the internet would have to be faster with no bottlenecks, consumer would have to have several terabytes of storage, and a way to get it there. Downloads would have to be able to offer 1080p, seemless branching, PIP, and be able to handle VERY large file sizes. It will be quite a few years before that happens. Whatever format is left standing has plenty of years to mature.

I think most of the public is waiting this out because there is no full studio support for either format, and software prices are still too high. I do not think player prices play too much into this because DVD prices were still quite high at this point in their history, and people were buying them left and right.

I am not dismissing your points. However these points have already been argued ad naseum over the last six or so months.

Hd downloads as a viable option are at least 10 years away for the general public.In the U.S. the average download speed is less than 2 MBPS ,here in Canada we are about 5MBPS
but in Japan it is about 60 MBPS.So we here in North America have a long way to before this is a viable alternative in large scale numbers.


bill

I'm gonna take a walk on the wild side and state the obvious.....In the infamous words of my father, "It's not about the money,...but it's about the money!" The "bottom line" is the virtue here guys. Regardless of which camp is selling more software and/or hardware, it's about profitability. Believe me when I tell you, if another format hits the market that has very similar video quality and cost the studios less money to produce it and it cost the manufacturer's less money to build the hardware to play the new format, then both HD DVD and BD will go the way of the Dodo! An example....VMD (Versatile Multi-Layer Disc) is on the horizon, and is being considered by both studios and manufacturer's. I'm not saying that VMD is going to take the world by storm, but Paramount understood the overall cost of producing BD, and opted to go exclusively HD DVD. Even with the $150 million payout, they saw it would cost them less going HD DVD than staying with BD. One more thing, marketing is everything. Hey, when I think of a hamburger, Mikey D's comes to mind. Doesn't make the Big Mac the best burger out there, but the damage has been done. McDonald's is burned into memory. Maybe not to that extent, but sony understands this notion better than anyone. Market the product to the 10th power, and you have a good chance of taking the market no matter how mediorce your product is! Not saying that Blu ray is mediorce, but the process/cost can easily put it in that category. I'm talking "Cost justification!" The difference between DVD vs. VHS and HD DVD vs. BD is, there was no comparison between DVD and VHS. A moron could see the benefits of DVD over VHS. Kind of like the what happened when the CD came to the market. When BD and HD DVD hit the market, DVD is still in it's heyday! DVD's are still outselling the HD formats by an obscene margin! Consumers, although curious about the new formats are for the most part content with standard DVDs and the with the onslaught of upconverting/upscaling dvd players, which offer hi-def-like quality, allows the consumer to hold off and wait for the dust to settle. Which allows for the infiltration of less costly upstart format developers. Imagine a disc that uses a red laser instead of a blue one, has 50 GB storage capacity, and the manufacturing cost was no more than that of the average dvd! It's coming! Everything that was said in the previous posts are valid points and articulated well, but the bottom line again....is the MONEY!
There were a lot of "What if's" in there, but that's where it starts. The idea!

One more example of how the consumer mentality can shift.....remember when the DVD Recorder hit the market? Pioneer introduces it to the consumer market for $4 large! 4 thousand dollars!:mad2: It took at least 4 years before the dvd recorders could be had for less than $300. By then it was too late. Tivo hit the market. It was hot until the cable and satellite companies developed the DVR. Panasonic, Philips and Pioneer had a brainstorm and put hard drives into the dvd recorders, but again, too late. I know I'm missing other developments during that time, like Hi def and DVD-/+RW blank media and the like...but hopefully you see where I'm going. Change is inevitable in this industry. And anything can happen. One man's brain dead theory could be another man's epiphany into greatness!

Regards!

I own roughly 100 LD's still, I only got rid of titles once a DVD edition was released that was superior to the LD, so why do I still have 100 or so LD's? Because they still retain value to me and have yet to be beaten by a superior format in some way, shape, or form. I know that I have recited this information before, but I'll say it again... These are some prime examples of LD's that are still highly sought after, and for good reason.

BLADE DTS edition - the last DTS Laser produced and there still is no DTS on any edition of the film on DVD released inside the US, I do however have the Japanese DTS edition, but it cost me severely to get. The DTS on the LD is thicker though than the Japanese DVD import.

RONIN DTS edition - another great DTS offering on LD that again has not been issued inside the US on DVD with DTS, although there is a nice DTS edition in the UK of the film. Currently going for $85 on eBay btw.

SILENCE OF THE LAMBS (Criterion Ed.) - superb 2.0 stereo soundtrack that is thicker and more pronounced than the 5.1 mix on the Sp. Ed. DVD.

BRAM STOKERS DRACULA (Criterion Ed.) the only version of the film with color accuracy that was approved by Coppola.

TAXI DRIVER (Criterion Ed.) only version of this film that includes an incredibly commentary track by Scorsese to date.

THE ABYSS (THX Laserdisc set) still has superior surround sound mix over the 5.1 on the DVD.

These are just some examples and there are still hundreds of titles on LD that still have yet to be issued on DVD.

So why is this 'obsolete' format still desirable to some on eBay and other outlets? Well, because you can A. buy them cheap and B. there are still dozens and dozens of titles that are superior to anything to date on another format and are worth tracking down.

Sir T, I should comment on your last statement first before addressing your individual points...

I too understand your anger at Toshiba -- this whole thing could have been avoided with some people thinking more sanely... I actually was a BR supporter before I switched to neutral with an HD DVD bias. BR had all the better specs on paper, and as you have rightly pointed out previously, more studio support and more manufacturer support. It appeared to be a relatively easy choice...

The reason for my switch and subsequent anger at BR and particularly Sony, is due to their lack of support for quality early on in their release schedule. HD DVD beat them to market with a lot of glitches in the players (and a few software ones as well), but I thought Sony et al were taking their time and getting it right... Then came their early BR release of "The Fifth Element" a film that was used by many for DVD as a reference standard... and they obviously used either a poor master or just did a sloppy overall job as the disc was called a disaster by many (including me as I got it for free with my player). This, after all the delays and wait and high prices was a big letdown for me and many others... Then there was "The House of Flying Daggers"... etc. One poorly done BR release after another. In the meantime, the player costs were $1000+ versus half that for HD DVD. The HD DVDs by comparison were relatively well-mastered (although they have had some clunkers too, of course). I think BR lost a lot of the early adopters right then and I personally have still not forgiven the format even though at this point I view the picture quality to be just as good as HD DVD (although no better). Bottom line is Toshiba went out of their way to improve their glitchy players early on, and the HD DVD group released primarily quality releases (from a video and audio perspective). In any case that is my take on why I am where I am today with respect to format support.

Now to discuss your other points...

In the case of MPEG-2 Vs. VC-1 or AVC etc. I am not saying VC-1 is superior, but rather it is better suited for lower volume space applications. Some of the early BR releases were hampered by single layer MPEG-2 transfers on a long movie that needed more space to breathe in order to maximize performance for the MPEG-2 format... Either that or they were just poorly mastered, of course. You used an example of one film. Longer films may have fared differently... It is irrelevant anyways, because now if you have a long film, BR can just use a dual layer 50GB disc. So the point really is moot. Bottom line is both formats can look just as good as the other when they are properly mastered on the right amount of disc layers.


As for the Venturer release information I stand corrected. Please accept my apologies.

In the case of 300, I stand by my comments on it being a poor example, IMO. It is not a matter of like or dislike... it is a matter of comparing apples to apples. Take the "Planet Earth" box set... That is a better comparison. Check the results on that and you get a different answer. It all comes down to what you look at.

That said, it is unquestioned that your facts are correct in overall sales, and that is a more accurate indicator. Of course all of these numers are from *before* the Paramount switch, so we will have to see if HD DVD makes a strong comeback in time as that plays out.

As for CH DVD and HD DVD being compatible... I never said that. What I *did* say was I believed China's taking on CH DVD was good for HD DVD. I believe this because I have read the CH DVD players can play HD DVDs too (*backward* compatibility). If this proves to be true, then I would say it is indeed good news for HD DVD. I guess we will see.

As for predicting the future... I am working on it, but unfortunately I keep on making errors. ;-) Still trying...

Seriously though, while I cannot see the future any better than anyone else, I do have a very good "gut feeling" instinct, and get it right *most* of the time. That is not to say this will be one of them of course... My gut tells me that the Paramount switch will turn the tide in standalone player sales back to HD DVD when coupled with HD DVD's relatively low pricing. Again, I can't predict the future, but the facts do seem to indicate I have a good chance of being right here. Again, it wouldn't be the first time I predict something wrong based on current trends, but I trust my business instincts.

Finally, with respect to Warner... That one we will just have to agree to disagree. I may have to eat a bit of humble pie in February of next year (maybe more than a bit), but I truly believe I am right on this one... Time will tell, and I certainly respect your beliefs to the contrary, and your reasoning for those beliefs.

Regards,

---Dave

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies

I own roughly 100 LD's still, I only got rid of titles once a DVD edition was released that was superior to the LD, so why do I still have 100 or so LD's? Because they still retain value to me and have yet to be beaten by a superior format in some way, shape, or form. I know that I have recited this information before, but I'll say it again... These are some prime examples of LD's that are still highly sought after, and for good reason.


So why is this 'obsolete' format still desirable to some on eBay and other outlets? Well, because you can A. buy them cheap and B. there are still dozens and dozens of titles that are superior to anything to date on another format and are worth tracking down.

---

I confess I have kept my entire LD collection too. In my case, discs like Le Grand Chemin (The Grand Highway) are classics I too can't find elsewhere.

LD unfortunately never really caught on, but I still have a large place in my heart for it...

---Dave

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

No comparison to SACD and DVD-A. Both formats were stillborn at birth. SACD was because there were no post processing tools for either the studio, on in the players. Secondly it didn't have the support of the major record companies, and that goes for DVD-A as well. DVD-A didn't do well because they couldn't deliver 24/96khz multichannel on a consistant basis, and often what was sold didn't sound any better than CD, but just added surround. Neither was easy to hookup to anyone's receiver because of copy protection. Thirdly, the consumer wants and wanted mobile audio, audio they could put on a pocket player and run. Neither audio format could do this.
HD DVD and Bluray do have industry support and can be hooked up to all current receivers. Apples and oranges comparison.

---

This I have to disagree with - our money-grubbing society seems way to eager to dismiss the lessons of just yesteryear, perhaps better said by Santayana: "those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it." The fact is that SACD and DVD-A provide perhaps the most accurate comparison to what could very well unfold with this format war.

First of all, they where not at all stillborn at birth, whatever that means. I remember the lively discussions online about each format's supposed superiority, the sizable catalog for DVD-A that made me drool because I chose SACD, and the almost weekly growth, albeit very short lived, in shelf space at places like Tower, Fry's, GG, and others. There was a time, not too long ago when every record company was considering the formats and DVD-A was the clear leader, much like BR is now. SACD was first out of the gate, but they just didn't have the catalog or the rock and new releases that DVD-A could boast about. This sounds a whole lot like what I'm reading here about BR. By the way, much of the fear-mongering about SACD processing and DVD-A's 24/96Hz inconsistencies had been laid to rest, if not technically, at least in the marketplace, when both formats really seemed to take off.

I also remember reading articles about these formats being the perfect storm, just as we were reaching a market saturation of surround sound systems in people's homes. The argument went that these formats were riding the wave of HT buying witnessed across the industry. And let's not forget that while Laserdisk players are no longer made, more and more quality players are being introduced supporting SACD and to a lesser extent DVD-A.

So what happened? you nailed it on the head: you could not copy them. Yes, we can argue ad-infinitum about whether that was truly their undoing, but the more interesting comparison here is that no one really has hacked HD-DVD or BR in a way that can be widely exploited. And for all the evils that bootlegging might conjure up, from starving artists to links to terrorism and drugs to the possibility that it will grow hair on the palms of your hands, we cannot ignore the possibility that this may be any format's greatest impediment to market saturation. After all, it was the very reason DOS & Windows spread like wildfire throughout the world, that blank cassette sales outnumbered original recording sales in some years, and that, regardless of what the MPAA/RIAA may want you to believe, it made American pop culture the world standard from the deepest jungles of Indonesia to the plateaus of the Andes.

This is where the greatest threat to these formats is, IMO: downloaded content. Downloads' greatest advantage over the greedy copy protection schemes (remember the Sony root-kit scandal?) of HD-DVD and BR, is convenience. I will even go so far as saying that below-DVD quality content such as what is growing like wildfire with the iMovie and the X-box, is eating into the profits of the hi-def formats. Ask any average Joe at BB or CC, what they would like more: unlimited and free access to 24 episodes via download at standard TV quality or the complete collection on HD-DVD / BR at outrageous cost to his pocketbook? It wouldn't even be about the money either. If he even knows what these formats are, he'll prefer the convenience of just clicking a few buttons on the remote and watch 6 episodes, commercial-free in a row than having to get up to switch disks. Heck, he'll probably prefer having it on his iPhone! This doesn't even get into the discussion of which format average Joe would choose.

The bottom line is that this format war is killing hi-def - like the proverbial snake eating its own tail. Decades off? I doubt it. If Japan has 60Mb/s download speeds (I believe that's enough for a full BR download in about 5 minutes), then it's only a matter of a few short years before the iMovie/x-box subscriptions start offering usable HD content for download here in the US. Given all the other stuff that is going on in the world right now that will distract people in the coming year, this x-mas season is crucial. I'll paraphrase from Drumline: "whatever the beef is between those two, they better grill it up and eat it," because if they don't, there's an eager new drummer sitting on the sidelines who can dance circles around them.

I thought (and I admit I could be wrong on this) that the DTS-CD's were first to be issued as a 5.1 system for music, then DVD-Audio was issued, which required a DVD-Audio machine to play the entire disc (a la MLP tracks) and then SACD slowly crept in sometime after this. I recall having many DVD-A's before any SACD's were issued, but maybe I am wrong.