HIGH-DEF Disc Absolute Sales Figures.

[Smokey]

The new Nielsen survey of next-gen DVD sales report on absolute sales of High Def discs is rather interesting and somewhat sobering. The report compiled from Nielsen VideoScan show that as of March 18, the cumulative number of Blu-ray titles sold since the format's inception at 844,000 units, versus HD DVD at 708,600.

These charts confirm the previously reported strong showings for such A-list titles as 'The Departed' 'Batman Begins' and 'Superman Returns', they also demonstrate a very steep drop-off for titles outside of that top rung, with even discs among the top-ten best sellers that week moving fewer than 1000 units apiece:



The lower sales numbers at the bottom end of weekly list and on display elsewhere in the report (where some titles are listed as selling fewer than 200 units since inception) are certainly still a sobering reminder that both formats still have a long way to go in their shared quest to supplant standard-def DVD.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/564

[markw]

It would appear that Blu-ray seems to be outselling HD-DVD, although it's more of a "Lord of the Flies" situation in the grand scheme of things.

I truly believe that if there was only one format, it would have taken off a lot quicker. Does anyone else remember the great Quad wars of the 70's? where the formats fought each other to the death?

But, since SACD and DVD-Audio are still battling it out (although SACD seems to be pulling ahead), this format war could go on for years and wind up a niche market also.

pity...

[Smokey]

But, since SACD and DVD-Audio are still battling it out (although SACD seems to be pulling ahead), this format war could go on for years and wind up a niche market also.

pity...

I believe that also.

Unlike for DVD format (as it took off quickly) where people didn’t mind replacing their collection of VHS for new DVD format, the new hi def format might not benefit from such a luck due to consumers reluctance to replace their current DVD collection with high resolution version of it.

It seem new hi def format sales will mostly be riding on new titles that hit the market, and not necessary on titles that already exist on regular DVD. So it probably will be a very slow buildup for either format.

For example, I read somewhere that Blu-ray title ""Legends of the Fall" has apparently sold a single copy after a lonely nine months of retail avaiability.

[kexodusc]

I believe that also.

Unlike for DVD format (as it took off quickly) where people didn’t mind replacing their collection of VHS for new DVD format, the new hi def format might not benefit from such a luck due to consumers reluctance to replace their current DVD collection with high resolution version of it.

I don't recall DVD actually being all that quick in the early going...It was several years after I first met someone with a DVD player. In 1997 there were fewer than 400,000 players sold. I have no idea how many players have sold so far (though with PS3 it's way more than that). For year 1, these guys aren't doing too bad. Though they would seem to be progressing at a slower rate than DVD, even combined.

Also, 2007 was predicted by many analysts to be the first year of declining sales ever for DVD. Not a conclusive stat by itself if it turns out to be true (I wonder), but we're still very, very early in the HD life cycle. Things could heat up fast someday.

DVD may have caught on faster, but its eventual replacement doesn't have to do repeat that pace to still end up being the replacement.
Some interesting numbers -DVD's year by year sales in hardware and software up to 2005.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/072605.html

Also Smokey,a few neat things jumped out to me in your charts. 7 of the top 10 sellers are BluRay and Superman seems to be doing better on BluRay than HDDVD. Considering they were late to the party, that's impressive momentum.
It'll be interesting to see if BluRay can pull away from HD-DVD or vice-versa. I suspect once people are more comfortable in siding with the winner, sales will really progress.
DVD didn't really have as stiff a competitor in 1997-1998.

[PeruvianSkies]

I don't recall DVD actually being all that quick in the early going...It was several years after I first met someone with a DVD player. In 1997 there were fewer than 400,000 players sold. I have no idea how many players have sold so far (though with PS3 it's way more than that). For year 1, these guys aren't doing too bad. Though they would seem to be progressing at a slower rate than DVD, even combined.

Also, 2007 was predicted by many analysts to be the first year of declining sales ever for DVD. Not a conclusive stat by itself if it turns out to be true (I wonder), but we're still very, very early in the HD life cycle. Things could heat up fast someday.

DVD may have caught on faster, but its eventual replacement doesn't have to do repeat that pace to still end up being the replacement.
Some interesting numbers -DVD's year by year sales in hardware and software up to 2005.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/072605.html

Also Smokey,a few neat things jumped out to me in your charts. 7 of the top 10 sellers are BluRay and Superman seems to be doing better on BluRay than HDDVD. Considering they were late to the party, that's impressive momentum.
It'll be interesting to see if BluRay can pull away from HD-DVD or vice-versa. I suspect once people are more comfortable in siding with the winner, sales will really progress.
DVD didn't really have as stiff a competitor in 1997-1998.

Isn't it also interesting that the top sellers are action-esque movies. Some are Sci-fi or thrillers, but all of them are fairly action-oriented. I think that's key as well as people typcially want good sound and picture for action movies. It's not like most people sit there watching DIRTY DANCING HAVANA NIGHTS and comment about the pristine picture and superb surrounds.

[recoveryone]

From the list, the one thing that caught my eye was the Fifth Element, Now this goes back to my posting in another area (Mark, Skies go to your neutral corners) Here we see a film that has been out on just about every platform within the last 10 years. So again what is it to move avarage joe blow to spend his six pack cash on a movie he already has. And hopefully when someone come out with a full dual format player that is in reasonably cost range and is also backwards compatible then I really can see the formats moving forward. Its no fun having sofware that won't work on your hardware. lol that can be use on a date if your clever......lol

[PeruvianSkies]

From the list, the one thing that caught my eye was the Fifth Element, Now this goes back to my posting in another area (Mark, Skies go to your neutral corners) Here we see a film that has been out on just about every platform within the last 10 years. So again what is it to move avarage joe blow to spend his six pack cash on a movie he already has. And hopefully when someone come out with a full dual format player that is in reasonably cost range and is also backwards compatible then I really can see the formats moving forward. Its no fun having sofware that won't work on your hardware. lol that can be use on a date if your clever......lol

Ok, I'm in my corner, but can I at least say this...

THE FIFTH ELEMENT (I love this movie btw) was also one of the first SUPERBIT releases from ColumbiaTriStar and was always one of their top-sellers. Unfortunately they were unable to keep hot titles in the Superbit line to keep it moving. It was with CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON and BRAM STOKERS DRACULA as the initial 3 released.

[markw]

From the list, the one thing that caught my eye was the Fifth Element, Now this goes back to my posting in another area (Mark, Skies go to your neutral corners) Here we see a film that has been out on just about every platform within the last 10 years. So again what is it to move avarage joe blow to spend his six pack cash on a movie he already has. And hopefully when someone come out with a full dual format player that is in reasonably cost range and is also backwards compatible then I really can see the formats moving forward. Its no fun having sofware that won't work on your hardware. lol that can be use on a date if your clever......lol

It's been a favorite of the audio/video freaks from day one as a demo. Even the standard DVD is a pleasure to watch and listen to!

It's got it all, bright colors, a great film quality, great sound, great acting, a well paced plot full of of action and humor and, who in their right mind can argue with Mila Jovovich running around in skimpies.

IOW, it's a standard like PF's DSOTM, which has been released on virtually every format to hit the market and, believe me, I've had all of 'em (except cassette and 8-track).

I don't think it's JoeSixpack's influence we're seeing here. These new formats are still the domain of the audio/video pioneers who fall under the name of "early adaptors" whose participation is critical to any new item. It's a known quantity by which to a) judge their system's performance and b) a great showpiece to use when showing off their new toys, not so much by Joe Sixpack. Most of these films tend to fall int othat category.

But, once all these early adaptors have purchased their hardware and software, it's up to Joe Sixpack and his buddies at Wal-Mart to take up the flag and carry these new formats over the top. And, Joe may be quite satisfied with his existing DVD copies and picking them up at low prices as opposed to the high prices asked for these new formats. Plus, he doesn't need to purchase new hardware that costs upwards of $400 or so when he can pick up a DVD player for 10% of that.

Soon it'll be in Joe's hands and only time will tell. SACD and DVD-Audio are still battling it out in the corner after all these years but redbook CD's are still the sales leader of the three.

We'll know a winner has been declared when the bestselling titles are from Pixar and Disney.

[kexodusc]

We'll know a winner has been declared when the bestselling titles are from Pixar and Disney.

One sign, for sure.

As DVD sales decline and HD sales increase, I can't help but think there'll be a strong desire by the studios to reduce the number of DVD releases for two reasons, margins are low on DVD, and self-interest in pushing the new formats to keep reselling the back catalog.

This could very well be a supply determined product.

I've said it many times, Sony will fight tooth and nail to the bitter end when it comes to format wars. Toshiba doesn't have the appetite, they're smart enough to realize they stand more to gain financially from hardware sales than license royalties. That said, never underestimate Sony's ability to screw up a great product.

I'm hoping universal players get cheap enough in a hurry. Kinda thought we'd see a few more at tempting prices by now.

[markw]

One sign, for sure.

As DVD sales decline and HD sales increase, I can't help but think there'll be a strong desire by the studios to reduce the number of DVD releases for two reasons, margins are low on DVD, and self-interest in pushing the new formats to keep reselling the back catalog.

This could very well be a supply determined product.

I've said it many times, Sony will fight tooth and nail to the bitter end when it comes to format wars. Toshiba doesn't have the appetite, they're smart enough to realize they stand more to gain financially from hardware sales than license royalties. That said, never underestimate Sony's ability to screw up a great product.

I'm hoping universal players get cheap enough in a hurry. Kinda thought we'd see a few more at tempting prices by now.

Downloading movies. Just like with music, it's the wave of the future and, if music is any indication, overall quality of the product isn't the ultimate determining factor in a format's success or failure. Such being the case, both may wind up stillborn.

and, as for format wars, whahoppned to Beta? It's the movie studios and distribution arms that will determine the winner here, not the hardware manufacturers.

[kexodusc]

Downloading movies. Just like with music, it's the wave of the future and, if music is any indication, overall quality of the product isn't the ultimate determining factor in a format's success or failure. Such being the case, both may wind up stillborn.

Hmm, I don't see downloading threatening HD formats in the near future. DVD has increased sales every single year despite this threat. Unless there's some fantastic gains coming in download speed and bandwidth, this just won't have a big enough impact. I'm sure it'll hurt some, but I have little faith in people's willingness to download instead of purchase tangible formats. Unlike audio, where most people's systems don't really resolve the loss in sound quality in lossy compressed digital formats, people do have HDTV's, are more visually oriented and will notice substantial losses in the picture quality area. Think that'll keep people buying disc formats for several more years.

and, as for format wars, whahoppned to Beta? It's the movie studios and distribution arms that will determine the winner here, not the hardware manufacturers.

Beta was a little bit different in at least one regard. Today, one of the hardware manufacturers IS also a pretty important movie studio, and there's vested interests and investments from both studio's and hardware manufacturers in the each other's business. Hardware manufacturers back then were all new to the game (so were the studio's). I think everyone recognizes fully (or at least better) what's at stake this time.

[recoveryone]

I like the film also, but I could not see myself buying it again in Blu-ray/HD DVD, just MHO. But if I was to get it in a whole new type of sensory feeling (put me in the movie) hologram type setting. Then I'll buy that for a dollar!.......lol To me its like the game console systems they keep making the games so real like (GT4) but it will never be able to take the place of driving a real car. So you can give me all the enhanced graphics you want, but nothing can replace the feel of pressing the acclearator of a 500 hp machine and feeling the G forces against your body as you make that first turn. Just think how far we have come in HT that most of us don't even go to the theater any more due that most local places have inferior systems than what we have at home. And I'm sure its not for the over price popcorn and soda. I'm sure I too will jump on the HD DVD format one day, but then again I'm holding out until they pull my CRT WS TV and progressive scan DVD player from my glazed over eyse and cold hands, I still won't be dead thats just going to far...........................................lol

[PeruvianSkies]

I like the film also, but I could not see myself buying it again in Blu-ray/HD DVD, just MHO. But if I was to get it in a whole new type of sensory feeling (put me in the movie) hologram type setting. Then I'll buy that for a dollar!.......lol To me its like the game console systems they keep making the games so real like (GT4) but it will never be able to take the place of driving a real car. So you can give me all the enhanced graphics you want, but nothing can replace the feel of pressing the acclearator of a 500 hp machine and feeling the G forces against your body as you make that first turn. Just think how far we have come in HT that most of us don't even go to the theater any more due that most local places have inferior systems than what we have at home. And I'm sure its not for the over price popcorn and soda. I'm sure I too will jump on the HD DVD format one day, but then again I'm holding out until they pull my CRT WS TV and progressive scan DVD player from my glazed over eyse and cold hands, I still won't be dead thats just going to far...........................................lol

I noticed that 1. when I first purchased the Superbit edition of this film I thought it was the best thing on the market. It was stunning with great visuals and superb surround sound. 2. over time and especially on my most recent viewing a few months ago I noticed just how the standards of DVD finally surpassed this film. The blacks are a problem and the sound is (by more recent standards) not that showcase worthy.

I agree with you though, if you are not a huge fan, than who cares. I might opt to own this film again...just maybe. Can I come out of my corner yet?

[Groundbeef]

It seems that the other part of the world may not be so ready to accept Sony, and Blu-Ray.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=5168&Itemid=2

So maybe things are not going to be settled as soon as we thought. Europe could emerge as a factor in choosing the next HD-Format.

[kexodusc]

It seems that the other part of the world may not be so ready to accept Sony, and Blu-Ray.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=5168&Itemid=2

So maybe things are not going to be settled as soon as we thought. Europe could emerge as a factor in choosing the next HD-Format.

Europe's not the market that decides this unfortunately...and independant European studio's account for what? 0.000000001% of movie sales? The US studio's influence, if it remains behind BluRay to the extent it is, is just too big for independent studio's to overcome.

And I don't buy any anti-Sony sentiment at all...CD did just fine.

[westcott]

I guess I am too frugle with my money. Even if I did own an HD DVD player or a BlueRay, I still would not buy any media for it, but rather, rent it.

Since there seems to be a high possibility that one or the other may fold, I would hate to invest all that money only to not be able to get an updated player further in the future that could play them.

[Dusty Chalk]

Good call on 2001 and Blade Runner (but they should add the cinematic release -- a Criterion boxset like Brazil would not be sneered at -- in fact, it would probably be insta-purchased by me), two of my top-10 films of all time. I would add:

Koyaanisqatsi
Pink Floyd's The Wall
Ghost in the Shell
Akira
Spirited Away
Princess Mononoke
Sin City
Mirrormask
Dark Crystal
Labyrinth

Here's to hoping that 300 will go straight to hi-def (and considering many eye-candy type movies like Aeon Flux and Ultraviolet go straight to hi-def, this is not really that much of a gamble)

[PeruvianSkies]

Good call on 2001 and Blade Runner (but they should add the cinematic release -- a Criterion boxset like Brazil would not be sneered at -- in fact, it would probably be insta-purchased by me), two of my top-10 films of all time. I would add:

Koyaanisqatsi DEFINITELY! THIS NEEDS A NEW TRANSFER AS THE DVD FROM MGM IS LAME-O! I USED TO HAVE THE 12" LASERDISC TOO.

Pink Floyd's The Wall ALSO IN NEED OF RESTORATION AND A DTS AUDIO MIX.

Ghost in the Shell

Akira A FILM THAT WAS MEANT TO BE BIG-SCREEN FOR SURE AND THE PIONEER DVD HAS A GREAT DTS MIX, I'D LOVE TO HEAR THIS IN DTS-HD AND WITH A NEW HD TRANSFER!!!

Spirited Away
Princess Mononoke

Sin City COULD CERTAINLY BENEFIT FROM AN HD TRANSFER!

Mirrormask
Dark Crystal THE SUPERBIT DVD WAS PRETTY LACKLUSTER.
Labyrinth ALSO A LACKLUSTER SUPERBIT. BOTH OF THESE FILMS NEED HD TRANSFERS AND DTS FULLBIT!

Here's to hoping that 300 will go straight to hi-def (and considering many eye-candy type movies like Aeon Flux and Ultraviolet go straight to hi-def, this is not really that much of a gamble)

GOOD CHOICES!!

[nightflier]

Back to the download question, the other bottleneck that no one is talking about is hard drive capacity. With your average console/Tivo/PVR coming in at 80Gb, that's hardly enough for 25Gb HD downloads. Since there are 750Gb internal drives drives available everywhere, there's no reason why manufacturers are keeping the drives so small (unless, for those conspiracy-focussed readers, they have a reason to).

I see HD capacity growing very fast once 3D/holographic recording methods become more mainstream. At that point, it will be possible for people to have 2-3 terabyte drives and this won't be an issue anymore. I give it two years, tops. Of course, that's plenty of time for HD-DVD and BluRay to fight it out and declare a winner.

Another factor is download speeds. Most downloads today are files that are compressed for viewing - i.e. they are not decompressed after download. If on the other hand, files where ultra-compressed and then decompressed after download (this can easily be accomplished inside the component w/o any user interaction), then we could see a much greater compression ratio; my guess, as much as 50%. This would make that 25Gb file about 12Gb.

P.S. Westcot, great list. Nice to see Clint, too - not many people would put a Western in their top 5.

[PeruvianSkies]

P.S. Westcot, great list. Nice to see Clint, too - not many people would put a Western in their top 5.

That was my list, but Westcott responded to it.

[westcott]

That was my list, but Westcott responded to it.

Can I get partial credit since I mostly agreed with you? I would totally agree with you if we expanded the list to 6 and added Ben Hur.

Is it too late to edit?

I'll be your best friend!!!!!

[PeruvianSkies]

Can I get partial credit since I mostly agreed with you? I would totally agree with you if we expanded the list to 6 and added Ben Hur.

Is it too late to edit?

I'll be your best friend!!!!!

Yes, and BEN HUR would be another great title, especially if they do a 2.76X1 transfer of the film.

[Woochifer]

These numbers are definitely the most comprehensively documented set that have been released yet. These are the numbers that all of the studios subscribe to, but thus far Sony's the only studio that has released the full dossier with the raw Videoscan numbers. Obviously, Sony timed the release of this report to coincide with the first week of data for Casino Royale, which had the biggest first week sales for either HD disc format, as expected. It will be interesting to see whether HD-DVD narrows that 4-1 sales gap with Universal's HD-DVD releases of Children of Men and The Good Shepherd, or if Blu-ray maintains its week-to-week market share.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/files/...port031807.zip

The primary limitation is that the raw numbers only document the retailers that are tied into Videoscan's point-of-sale tracking system. My understanding is that this accounts for 40-60% of the home video market, and does not include mass merchandisers such as Wal-Mart and Target, along with some online retailers (Amazon and DVD Empire I believe are included).

But, as far as tracking the rank order, and the Blu-ray/HD-DVD market share, this is by far the best data source out there. The report itself is interesting because it now provides a new benchmark for the various consolidated estimates out there.