HIGH-DEF Disc Absolute Sales Figures.

[westcott]

Oh? I beg to differ. On the 360 the average HD movie takes a little over 4 hours to d/l on cable connection, and the size is a bit over 4gb. Considering there are no "extras", just the movie the quality is outstanding. Bit for Bit it is more compressed than an HD Disc, but the quality is outstanding.

It is hands down better than a comparable DVD movie. But the SD d/l movie files are around 2 GB, and quality is that of watching the physical DVD playback.

Apple quality pales in comparison to the 360 D/L service as their videos are optimized for ipod playback, whereas MS optimizes playback for HD monitors/TV's.

Considering that an HD DVD movie can be 20 to 25gb, 4gb is still a far cry from true HD.

Maybe I am being too picky but I see the HD logo used way too often for displays and content that is not true HD. Most of us here are well versed on this but for those who may be lurking and are unaware, I think this should be a fair caution to keep your eyes peeled and be skeptical of wild marketing claims.

360 is actually ahead of the curve from what you have told me. Many of the other download services I have read about are nowhere near this quality.

[kexodusc]

Have you been following the XBOX 360 Marketplace? Currently after only 4 MONTHS of service with video downloads, they have launched to 2nd place only behind Itunes.

They are also currently #1 in HD d/l movies (indeed one of the few places you can d/l HD movies).

They are also signing up numbers of studios eager to grab a piece of the pie. HD movies rent for about $4.00 compared to $3.00 for SD.

I would have to directly disagree with your d/l vs buy. After being burned by $34/ Children of Men, I will be MORE likely to rent/ and then purchase. Rather than just buy.

Heres a link for you:
http://kotaku.com/gaming/xbox-360/mi...ads-245602.php

I'm well aware of itunes and 360's success.
That's fine and dandy. But there's also the very real fact that DVD and CD sales continue to stay incredibly strong despite legit and illegal downloading practices. There are no studies that verify downloading is stealing sales from buying hard discs, it's difficult to measure and prove, and though we all intuitively can say it's hurting a bit, the impact is certainly not industry threatening... The new line of thinking is that this is a parallel market. We know a large portion of the sales is done by impulse or for convenience, and represent purchases the buyer would otherwise not have made. Ie, it's not "stealing" from the hard disc format in most cases. I'm sure there's some loss of sales, but it's fairly minimal. There will continue to be a huge market for a tangible disc formats for quite some number of years. I'm guessing HD-DVD/BluRay survive, dont' do as well as DVD, and then maybe in 10 years or so downloading is in a position to overtake it.
Then again, it may never happen. People like owning things they can touch.

What we see here is a few users with high frequency of purchase, vs a larger number of users who purchase less frequently. I have little doubt we'll move to a d/l based system eventually, just think we're at least 1 generation away from it being at least 50% of hard disc sales.

There cable companies are having a hard time figuring out how they'll be able to deliver capable bandwidth IF movie downloading ever takes off. Right now it's still just an opportunity being explored and experimented with. We're still a ways away from that yet.

[Groundbeef]

I'm well aware of itunes and 360's success.
That's fine and dandy. But there's also the very real fact that DVD and CD sales continue to stay incredibly strong despite legit and illegal downloading practices. There are no studies that verify downloading is stealing sales from buying hard discs, it's difficult to measure and prove, and though we all intuitively can say it's hurting a bit, the impact is certainly not industry threatening... The new line of thinking is that this is a parallel market. We know a large portion of the sales is done by impulse or for convenience, and represent purchases the buyer would otherwise not have made. Ie, it's not "stealing" from the hard disc format in most cases. I'm sure there's some loss of sales, but it's fairly minimal. There will continue to be a huge market for a tangible disc formats for quite some number of years. I'm guessing HD-DVD/BluRay survive, dont' do as well as DVD, and then maybe in 10 years or so downloading is in a position to overtake it.
Then again, it may never happen. People like owning things they can touch.

What we see here is a few users with high frequency of purchase, vs a larger number of users who purchase less frequently. I have little doubt we'll move to a d/l based system eventually, just think we're at least 1 generation away from it being at least 50% of hard disc sales.

There cable companies are having a hard time figuring out how they'll be able to deliver capable bandwidth IF movie downloading ever takes off. Right now it's still just an opportunity being explored and experimented with. We're still a ways away from that yet.

I think the difference is twofold
1. When you d/l a movie for the 360 it is a RENTAL. You have 14 days to watch, and only a 24 hour window whe you start the initial viewing. So, for $4.00 its not a bad way to decide if the HD movie you are contemplating buying for $34.00 is really worth it. Would have paid off for me a couple of times.

2. With the 360, the d/l is directly to your HD TV. No messing with having to stream from your PC to your TV, or other convoluted methods. Plus, you don't have to worry about returning the film when finished. It just doesn't play anymore. Just delete of HD, and its gone.

Unfortunatly I have become used to paying $15 for a new release DVD. The cost of a new HD-DVD ($34.00) will actually make me more discriminating, and the D/L service will definatly help me seperate the wheat from the chaff as they say.

[Duds]

cd sales continue to stay incredibly strong? WRONG!!! cd sales are dropping at an alarming rate. I'm not saying its all due to downloading, that certainly has a lot to do with it, but to say that cd sales are stayign incredibly strong is just flat out wrong. i work for a large music and dvd retailer, and thats definitely not the case.

Also, as far as downloading movies, i dont think people will really care that they arent HD quality. Do the majority of music downloaders care about the sound quality? i would guess no. As long as the downloaded movie is normal quality or close to normal, i dont thinik people will give a damn.

I'm well aware of itunes and 360's success.
That's fine and dandy. But there's also the very real fact that DVD and CD sales continue to stay incredibly strong despite legit and illegal downloading practices. There are no studies that verify downloading is stealing sales from buying hard discs, it's difficult to measure and prove, and though we all intuitively can say it's hurting a bit, the impact is certainly not industry threatening... The new line of thinking is that this is a parallel market. We know a large portion of the sales is done by impulse or for convenience, and represent purchases the buyer would otherwise not have made. Ie, it's not "stealing" from the hard disc format in most cases. I'm sure there's some loss of sales, but it's fairly minimal. There will continue to be a huge market for a tangible disc formats for quite some number of years. I'm guessing HD-DVD/BluRay survive, dont' do as well as DVD, and then maybe in 10 years or so downloading is in a position to overtake it.
Then again, it may never happen. People like owning things they can touch.

What we see here is a few users with high frequency of purchase, vs a larger number of users who purchase less frequently. I have little doubt we'll move to a d/l based system eventually, just think we're at least 1 generation away from it being at least 50% of hard disc sales.

There cable companies are having a hard time figuring out how they'll be able to deliver capable bandwidth IF movie downloading ever takes off. Right now it's still just an opportunity being explored and experimented with. We're still a ways away from that yet.

[kexodusc]

I think the difference is twofold
1. When you d/l a movie for the 360 it is a RENTAL. You have 14 days to watch, and only a 24 hour window whe you start the initial viewing. So, for $4.00 its not a bad way to decide if the HD movie you are contemplating buying for $34.00 is really worth it. Would have paid off for me a couple of times.

2. With the 360, the d/l is directly to your HD TV. No messing with having to stream from your PC to your TV, or other convoluted methods. Plus, you don't have to worry about returning the film when finished. It just doesn't play anymore. Just delete of HD, and its gone.

Unfortunatly I have become used to paying $15 for a new release DVD. The cost of a new HD-DVD ($34.00) will actually make me more discriminating, and the D/L service will definatly help me seperate the wheat from the chaff as they say.

Could be me, but I see the Rental aspect affecting Blockbuster more than HD-DVD or BluRay sales. Even any reduction in blockbuster copies wouldn't really impact overall sales much. And I expect they'd order the same volume, just see the frequency of rentals decrease somewhat. I order flicks from my on-demand cable provider all the time for a bit cheaper than Blockbuster - and I still rent films too. I'm more discriminating in both purchases AND rentals. I see the ones I'm excited for in theater - if they're good I may buy them. If not, I won't pay to rent them again. The ones I miss, a few I'll rent, most I'll wait to hit the Movie channels, on-demand or otherwise, that I pay a flat rate for. I usually try to buy only discs I know I will want to watch many times.

I'm all for downloading rentals, though in my experience, HD or SD, the disc format is still preferable, for audio and video quality, though I recognize most people probably don't care as much as me. Maybe we'll see a 3 way battle emerge between HD-DVD, BluRay and downloading.

It is a real possibility, I'll concede, that if HD-DVD and BluRay don't resolve their conflict soon, that in a few years many people might just decide to not get any HD player and use these kinds of services. I'm still not sure that addresses the desire people have to own movies in their personal library. Time will tell.

[Groundbeef]

Could be me, but I see the Rental aspect affecting Blockbuster more than HD-DVD or BluRay sales. Even any reduction in blockbuster copies wouldn't really impact overall sales much. And I expect they'd order the same volume, just see the frequency of rentals decrease somewhat. I order flicks from my on-demand cable provider all the time for a bit cheaper than Blockbuster - and I still rent films too. I'm more discriminating in both purchases AND rentals. I see the ones I'm excited for in theater - if they're good I may buy them. If not, I won't pay to rent them again. The ones I miss, a few I'll rent, most I'll wait to hit the Movie channels, on-demand or otherwise, that I pay a flat rate for. I usually try to buy only discs I know I will want to watch many times.

I'm all for downloading rentals, though in my experience, HD or SD, the disc format is still preferable, for audio and video quality, though I recognize most people probably don't care as much as me. Maybe we'll see a 3 way battle emerge between HD-DVD, BluRay and downloading.

It is a real possibility, I'll concede, that if HD-DVD and BluRay don't resolve their conflict soon, that in a few years many people might just decide to not get any HD player and use these kinds of services. I'm still not sure that addresses the desire people have to own movies in their personal library. Time will tell.

I don't see d/l overcoming buying them for your library anytime soon either. However, services such as the 360 marketplace sure do make it easy to rent HD movies. The problem is that movie places around me don't have a HD rental section. So, I would prefer to watch them first before purchase. Children of Men is still chapping my ass. Thats $34 not well spent.

[kexodusc]

I don't see d/l overcoming buying them for your library anytime soon either. However, services such as the 360 marketplace sure do make it easy to rent HD movies. The problem is that movie places around me don't have a HD rental section. So, I would prefer to watch them first before purchase. Children of Men is still chapping my ass. Thats $34 not well spent.

Ha ha...Nobody told ya to look before you leap? I actually enjoyed the movie, not enough to buy it though. But that's a different thread.

I'm starting to warm up to the idea that these will remain a niche market product. Maybe the margins are high enough that it's in everyone's best interest to keep them as niche products? The way DVD hardware and software prices dropped so fast, I'm sure a lot of companies learned their lessons and aren't so eager to shoot themselves in the foot again. Though I wonder how long until the first Apex HD-DVD player hits the market?

[PeruvianSkies]

Ok, here are my top 5 movies that I am eager to see on the HD formats...



LAWRENCE OF ARABIA I've seen this projected and restored in 70mm and the Superbit DVD is pretty good, but still lacking in some of the detail and depth. This would be a key HD title!!!



BLADE RUNNER Besides obvious reasons this is a film that is in desperate need of some restoration and color-correction. The HD would be staggering!!!



2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY Probably my all time favorite film and a visually stunning 70mm film that would look so dang good with a great restoration and true HD picture!



THE GOOD, THE BAD, and the UGLY A film definitely in need of some good restoration and HD transfer. The various released on DVD still had tons of issues and this film is s



THE THIRD MAN One of my all-time favorite b&w films and the Criterion DVD is now dated quite a bit, although relatively clean transfer, but still needs some work and HD could really bring out the detail of this classic!

[L.J.]

The problem is that movie places around me don't have a HD rental section. So, I would prefer to watch them first before purchase. Children of Men is still chapping my ass. Thats $34 not well spent.

I don't know whats available on xbox but why not give Netflix a try. That's what I've been using.

[westcott]

Ok, here are my top 5 movies that I am eager to see on the HD formats...



LAWRENCE OF ARABIA I've seen this projected and restored in 70mm and the Superbit DVD is pretty good, but still lacking in some of the detail and depth. This would be a key HD title!!!



BLADE RUNNER Besides obvious reasons this is a film that is in desperate need of some restoration and color-correction. The HD would be staggering!!!



2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY Probably my all time favorite film and a visually stunning 70mm film that would look so dang good with a great restoration and true HD picture!



THE GOOD, THE BAD, and the UGLY A film definitely in need of some good restoration and HD transfer. The various released on DVD still had tons of issues and this film is s



THE THIRD MAN One of my all-time favorite b&w films and the Criterion DVD is now dated quite a bit, although relatively clean transfer, but still needs some work and HD could really bring out the detail of this classic!

Blade Runner is one of my all time sci fi favorites and the difference between DVD and HD via satellite is truly astounding. The kitchen scene is a great example. On the DVD, you can not even tell he is in a kitchen, on HD, it is a whole new ballgame.

I have Lawrence of Arabia on superbit and it too is very impressive. Would love to see it in HD.

You and I seem to have similar tastes. Nice top five!

I would have to replace Clint Eastwood with Ben Hur though!

[Dusty Chalk]

Good call on 2001 and Blade Runner (but they should add the cinematic release -- a Criterion boxset like Brazil would not be sneered at -- in fact, it would probably be insta-purchased by me), two of my top-10 films of all time. I would add:

Koyaanisqatsi
Pink Floyd's The Wall
Ghost in the Shell
Akira
Spirited Away
Princess Mononoke
Sin City
Mirrormask
Dark Crystal
Labyrinth

Here's to hoping that 300 will go straight to hi-def (and considering many eye-candy type movies like Aeon Flux and Ultraviolet go straight to hi-def, this is not really that much of a gamble)

[PeruvianSkies]

Good call on 2001 and Blade Runner (but they should add the cinematic release -- a Criterion boxset like Brazil would not be sneered at -- in fact, it would probably be insta-purchased by me), two of my top-10 films of all time. I would add:

Koyaanisqatsi DEFINITELY! THIS NEEDS A NEW TRANSFER AS THE DVD FROM MGM IS LAME-O! I USED TO HAVE THE 12" LASERDISC TOO.

Pink Floyd's The Wall ALSO IN NEED OF RESTORATION AND A DTS AUDIO MIX.

Ghost in the Shell

Akira A FILM THAT WAS MEANT TO BE BIG-SCREEN FOR SURE AND THE PIONEER DVD HAS A GREAT DTS MIX, I'D LOVE TO HEAR THIS IN DTS-HD AND WITH A NEW HD TRANSFER!!!

Spirited Away
Princess Mononoke

Sin City COULD CERTAINLY BENEFIT FROM AN HD TRANSFER!

Mirrormask
Dark Crystal THE SUPERBIT DVD WAS PRETTY LACKLUSTER.
Labyrinth ALSO A LACKLUSTER SUPERBIT. BOTH OF THESE FILMS NEED HD TRANSFERS AND DTS FULLBIT!

Here's to hoping that 300 will go straight to hi-def (and considering many eye-candy type movies like Aeon Flux and Ultraviolet go straight to hi-def, this is not really that much of a gamble)

GOOD CHOICES!!

[nightflier]

Back to the download question, the other bottleneck that no one is talking about is hard drive capacity. With your average console/Tivo/PVR coming in at 80Gb, that's hardly enough for 25Gb HD downloads. Since there are 750Gb internal drives drives available everywhere, there's no reason why manufacturers are keeping the drives so small (unless, for those conspiracy-focussed readers, they have a reason to).

I see HD capacity growing very fast once 3D/holographic recording methods become more mainstream. At that point, it will be possible for people to have 2-3 terabyte drives and this won't be an issue anymore. I give it two years, tops. Of course, that's plenty of time for HD-DVD and BluRay to fight it out and declare a winner.

Another factor is download speeds. Most downloads today are files that are compressed for viewing - i.e. they are not decompressed after download. If on the other hand, files where ultra-compressed and then decompressed after download (this can easily be accomplished inside the component w/o any user interaction), then we could see a much greater compression ratio; my guess, as much as 50%. This would make that 25Gb file about 12Gb.

P.S. Westcot, great list. Nice to see Clint, too - not many people would put a Western in their top 5.

[PeruvianSkies]

P.S. Westcot, great list. Nice to see Clint, too - not many people would put a Western in their top 5.

That was my list, but Westcott responded to it.

[Woochifer]

These numbers are definitely the most comprehensively documented set that have been released yet. These are the numbers that all of the studios subscribe to, but thus far Sony's the only studio that has released the full dossier with the raw Videoscan numbers. Obviously, Sony timed the release of this report to coincide with the first week of data for Casino Royale, which had the biggest first week sales for either HD disc format, as expected. It will be interesting to see whether HD-DVD narrows that 4-1 sales gap with Universal's HD-DVD releases of Children of Men and The Good Shepherd, or if Blu-ray maintains its week-to-week market share.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/files/...port031807.zip

The primary limitation is that the raw numbers only document the retailers that are tied into Videoscan's point-of-sale tracking system. My understanding is that this accounts for 40-60% of the home video market, and does not include mass merchandisers such as Wal-Mart and Target, along with some online retailers (Amazon and DVD Empire I believe are included).

But, as far as tracking the rank order, and the Blu-ray/HD-DVD market share, this is by far the best data source out there. The report itself is interesting because it now provides a new benchmark for the various consolidated estimates out there.

[westcott]

That was my list, but Westcott responded to it.

Can I get partial credit since I mostly agreed with you? I would totally agree with you if we expanded the list to 6 and added Ben Hur.

Is it too late to edit?

I'll be your best friend!!!!!

[PeruvianSkies]

Can I get partial credit since I mostly agreed with you? I would totally agree with you if we expanded the list to 6 and added Ben Hur.

Is it too late to edit?

I'll be your best friend!!!!!

Yes, and BEN HUR would be another great title, especially if they do a 2.76X1 transfer of the film.

[Groundbeef]

I don't know whats available on xbox but why not give Netflix a try. That's what I've been using.

I have Netflix. I live in IL, and I have yet to get an HD-DVD. I request them usually about 2 months before release, but they just don't have enough copies.

[hermanv]

Once upon a time I lived in the LA basin. I was lucky enough in 1968 to see 2001a Space Odysey at Grauman's Chinese Theater in Cinerama (Super Panavision 70mm projectors with a 145 degree surround screen). I'm not that sure about the 145 degrees, but the screen was wide enough that you couldn't see both edges without moving your head. This was also one of the earlier films to use multi channel surround sound.

Anyway,Wow and Wow again, pinned to the seat by the photography. I love home theater, but nothing I've seen can touch the visual drama of that presentation.

Thanks for reminding me.

[PeruvianSkies]

Once upon a time I lived in the LA basin. I was lucky enough in 1968 to see 2001a Space Odysey at Grauman's Chinese Theater in Cinerama (Super Panavision 70mm projectors with a 145 degree surround screen). I'm not that sure about the 145 degrees, but the screen was wide enough that you couldn't see both edges without moving your head. This was also one of the earlier films to use multi channel surround sound.

Anyway,Wow and Wow again, pinned to the seat by the photography. I love home theater, but nothing I've seen can touch the visual drama of that presentation.

Thanks for reminding me.

I envy you! That would have been amazing! Not only a great way to see any film, but especially one of the greatest achievements in motion picture history. A true masterwork of visual spendor and effects and the primary influence on generations of Sci-fi and special effects films. Clearly a prime example of the phrase: They don't make em' like they used to. Not only that, but they don't put them on display in full glory like this either!

I am sure your experience must have been 3-D like and that you felt like you were part OF the film, not just observing it.

[hermanv]

2001 was the only one I saw at Grauman's, I also went to the Cinerama dome on Sunset Blvd. Actually a small venue, sort of intemate. The best I can remember is:

2001
Grand Prix
Ice Staion Zebra
and Bullet (I think).

There may have been a couple more, obviously not memorable. I've seen one Imax film, but they were so enchanted with trying to make you dizzy or frightened that the concept of movie was lost. Perhaps other Imax films are or will be better.

I have yet to see an all digital movie in a theater, from what I read it doesn't seem like there are enough pixels for a screen that big.

I am looking forward to Hi Def DVD as soon as player prices for the dual format players drop or there is a clear winner in the format war.

[L.J.]

I have Netflix. I live in IL, and I have yet to get an HD-DVD. I request them usually about 2 months before release, but they just don't have enough copies.

That's strange, I've had no problems. Most Blu-ray (even new releases) are readily available. I have about 40 sitting in my queue ready to go.

Hmmm.....perhaps Blu-ray is so popular they keep a greater supply on hand

[hermanv]

Hmmm.....perhaps Blu-ray is so popular they keep a greater supply on hand

Maybe it's the other way around, HD is so popular they can't keep them in stock.

Woodchifer? Your turn.