Blu-ray Price Dropping.

[Smokey]

Since Blu-ray is going to be the standard for HD discs, this might be a good time to wonder as how far the price of blu-ray players&discs will drop ..let say...in next five years?

Will the price dropping ever reach current regular DVD players ($59) and SD DVD discs $7.5 (not to mention Walmart Bargain Bin )

[kexodusc]

Since Blu-ray is going to be the standard for HD discs, this might be a good time to wonder as how far the price of blu-ray players&discs will drop ..let say...in next five years?

Will the price dropping ever reach current regular DVD players ($59) and SD DVD discs $7.5 (not to mention Walmart Bargain Bin )

I'm going out on a limb and saying no. Think the manufacturers have learned from their mistakes. A lot of the Apexes of the world won't be so eager to dive into the discount BluRay player business after having watched the discount DVD companies take a few baths.
The discs might drop that low over time. I've got a feeling that BluRay will be better at protecting its margins than DVD was though. Not basing this on anything other than gut feeling.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I'm going out on a limb and saying no. Think the manufacturers have learned from their mistakes. A lot of the Apexes of the world won't be so eager to dive into the discount BluRay player business after having watched the discount DVD companies take a few baths.
The discs might drop that low over time. I've got a feeling that BluRay will be better at protecting its margins than DVD was though. Not basing this on anything other than gut feeling.

Your gut is very accurate. Actually disc prices have dropped. They are not $7.50, but they are not the $30-35 dollars they were.

[L.J.]

Dang, I read the title of this this thread and thought prices were dropping

Smoke,where's the ? That's it, no bargin bins for a week

[Smokey]

That's it, no bargin bins for a week

You can punish me, but don’t end my life

Thanks Kex and Sir T for comments and it is a valid point that Apexes of world might be reluctant to jump in (or not allowed to). But on the same note it might be worth mentioning that if proprietor of Blu-ray try to keep it under a tight wrap might actually hurt its chances of succeeding DVDs (they still have that hill to climb).

Are they willing to learn as to what happened to SACD/DVD-audio where a tight leash caused those formats to fail in mass market?

[kexodusc]

You can punish me, but don’t end my life

Thanks Kex and Sir T for comments and it is a valid point that Apexes of world might be reluctant to jump in (or not allowed to). But on the same note it might be worth mentioning that if proprietor of Blu-ray try to keep it under a tight wrap might actually hurt its chances of succeeding DVDs (they still have that hill to climb).

Succeeding DVD's shouldn't be hard. They'll do that the same way every business gets you to upgrade - planned obsolescence. As they scale back DVD you'll have no choice but to buy BluRay. Patience is all that's required - remember VHS was being scaled back at a time when it still had the largest installed-user base. It could be a year or two more before you see it happen - BluRay is still comparatively young.

Perhaps Sir T could chime in, but most of the talk/print I've heard/seen suggests BluRay's goals aren't nearly as ambitious as DVD's. They will be the dominant format, but they're not expecting to sell as many as DVD. To offset this, the margins will remain higher. It won't take much of a price premium over DVD to make BluRay pretty darn profitable. Now, if it does match or exceed DVD in sales, well that's just gravy.

Are they willing to learn as to what happened to SACD/DVD-audio where a tight leash caused those formats to fail in mass market

People keep referring to that botched format war when talking about BluRay. From my point of view, I don't see any relevant comparisons other than the fact each had a competitor.
Below the surface we can see many differences immediately:
1) BluRay has sold millions of hardware units
2) BluRay has support of all the studios, and are releasing considerably more titles than SACD/DVD-A ever did
3) BluRay isn't being positioned as a niche/audiophile only product
4) BluRay no longer has any high-rez competition complicating matters

#2 is probably the most significant - mainstream movies are being released in BluRay. Mainstream audio titles are not available in SACD for the most part. Hard to win a format war when you're not even trying to appeal to 99.9% of the market. These format wars have little in common really. BluRay may fail, but it won't be for the same reasons as SACD/DVD-A.

[Feanor]

I'm going out on a limb and saying no. Think the manufacturers have learned from their mistakes. A lot of the Apexes of the world won't be so eager to dive into the discount BluRay player business after having watched the discount DVD companies take a few baths.
The discs might drop that low over time. I've got a feeling that BluRay will be better at protecting its margins than DVD was though. Not basing this on anything other than gut feeling.

It will certainly be the preference of all the major players to retain the market stratification that BluRay represents, that is to say, DVD low end, BluRay high end.

I speculate that we will see a trend to lower BluRay disc prices however, and lower DVD prices too.

Of course high-end DVD players will very promptly vanish from the market. This was the case for VCRs as DVDs became more popular.

[Groundbeef]

This is purely my opinion, and mostly speculation.

People like competition. They may perfer a brand over another, but they want something to keep prices in check.

HD-DVD wasn't perfect, nor would it be the "standard". However, much to both the Blu crowd (Hardware side) chagrin, it was the turd in the punchbowl of higher prices and margins.

It doesn't matter to J6P that HD-DVD didn't enjoy support from differnent hardware suppliers, because the prices were lower than Blu. Obviously not enough of a draw, but that may have been studio support. If the player is cheaper, but I cant get the movie I want, so what. I won't buy. Good move on Blu for wrapping up studio support.

However, people have gotten an idea that HD playback (HD-DVD OR Blu) doesn't have to be super expenisve. And now that Blu is the only game in town, I am willing to bet that although its better than DVD, many people will NOT buy because of cost.

The perception is that it CAN be cheaper, but now without competition mfgs are "screwing" us, and since its not needed technology, why pay 4X what an "upconverted" DVD does?

I think that Blu will hold steady for 6 months, then around holiday time the blood letting will begin. I don't see movie prices dropping much though. They will hover around $20-25.

Just my opinon.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

This is purely my opinion, and mostly speculation.

I hate you beef. LOL

People like competition. They may perfer a brand over another, but they want something to keep prices in check.

Beef, do not worry about this. Prices may still be high, but they are much cheaper than a year ago, and you are starting to get all of the features the standard specs lists. For instance Panasonic, Sony and Daewoo are coming out with players that are 2.0 profile and are $500 and under. Two years into the DVD format, players that could read dual layers and do Dts were still far more expensive than this.

HD-DVD wasn't perfect, nor would it be the "standard". However, much to both the Blu crowd (Hardware side) chagrin, it was the turd in the punchbowl of higher prices and margins.

And becuase of the premature price reduction, they slashed and burned the market. Way too soon I might add. You cannot force prices down by taking a loss on every player this early in the game. You have to allow prices to drop by economy of scale, a natural force, not a forced force. Plus at the prices Toshiba charge, you could not get decent quality control.

It doesn't matter to J6P that HD-DVD didn't enjoy support from differnent hardware suppliers, because the prices were lower than Blu. Obviously not enough of a draw, but that may have been studio support. If the player is cheaper, but I cant get the movie I want, so what. I won't buy. Good move on Blu for wrapping up studio support.

Look at it this way beef, Toshiba had no competition either. They made or designed every player HD DVD ever released. That meant the consumer didn't have a large choice of quality players available, they had Toshiba's player, and all of its faults as well.

However, people have gotten an idea that HD playback (HD-DVD OR Blu) doesn't have to be super expenisve. And now that Blu is the only game in town, I am willing to bet that although its better than DVD, many people will NOT buy because of cost.

Yeah, but now most folks realize that the cheaper prices actually came at a cost to the format. New formats cost, that is a reality, and has been reality over the course of the history of consumer electronics. The VHS was over a thousand dollars for several years after it released, but prices came down as the manufacturers sold more players. Same with the DVD, and this will continue with bluray. When bluray launched, almost all of the players were a thousand dollars or just under it. Now a majority of the players are around $500.

The perception is that it CAN be cheaper, but now without competition mfgs are "screwing" us, and since its not needed technology, why pay 4X what an "upconverted" DVD does?

But upconverted DVD does not do what bluray can do. upconverted DVD is still just 480i, and once upconverted is still just 480i worth of information. Bluray is 1080p, and to all but the legally blind, it will look better than upconverted DVD. Upconverting some poorly mastered DVD's can actually make them look worse than before upconversion. I think the folks that have followed this war understand now that you cannot lose $600 million dollars just to give the consumer a cheap player. You will never make it that way.

I think that Blu will hold steady for 6 months, then around holiday time the blood letting will begin. I don't see movie prices dropping much though. They will hover around $20-25.

Just my opinon.

There is a chain reaction when the players prices drop, the software usually follows because both enjoy the efficiencies of economy of scale. The net result of what the BDA wants to do with bluray which is replace the DVD cannot be realized of the manufacturers, the studio, replicators do not pass along the cost savings derived from efficiencies. They have learned this from the CD.

[Groundbeef]

I hate you beef. LOL

I noticed you didn't touch the "turd in the punchbowl" comment. Makes a nice visual no?

[Smokey]

Perhaps Sir T could chime in, but most of the talk/print I've heard/seen suggests BluRay's goals aren't nearly as ambitious as DVD's. They will be the dominant format, but they're not expecting to sell as many as DVD. To offset this, the margins will remain higher.

I would say that prediction is probably the fairest one (at least for next five years).

And the main reason agree with your statement is unlike VHS vs DVD scenario where everybody were replacing their VHS library with same DVD titles (thus the price plunge), most everybody might be too reluctant to replace their DVD collection with Bluray discs.

So for foreseeable future, Bluray disc sales most likely be limited to new movie titles as economy of scale will take hold at slower speed than DVDs--thus higher price (hope I don't sound like Pixelthis )

[pixelthis]

Succeeding DVD's shouldn't be hard. They'll do that the same way every business gets you to upgrade - planned obsolescence. As they scale back DVD you'll have no choice but to buy BluRay. Patience is all that's required - remember VHS was being scaled back at a time when it still had the largest installed-user base. It could be a year or two more before you see it happen - BluRay is still comparatively young.

Perhaps Sir T could chime in, but most of the talk/print I've heard/seen suggests BluRay's goals aren't nearly as ambitious as DVD's. They will be the dominant format, but they're not expecting to sell as many as DVD. To offset this, the margins will remain higher. It won't take much of a price premium over DVD to make BluRay pretty darn profitable. Now, if it does match or exceed DVD in sales, well that's just gravy.


People keep referring to that botched format war when talking about BluRay. From my point of view, I don't see any relevant comparisons other than the fact each had a competitor.
Below the surface we can see many differences immediately:
1) BluRay has sold millions of hardware units
2) BluRay has support of all the studios, and are releasing considerably more titles than SACD/DVD-A ever did
3) BluRay isn't being positioned as a niche/audiophile only product
4) BluRay no longer has any high-rez competition complicating matters

#2 is probably the most significant - mainstream movies are being released in BluRay. Mainstream audio titles are not available in SACD for the most part. Hard to win a format war when you're not even trying to appeal to 99.9% of the market. These format wars have little in common really. BluRay may fail, but it won't be for the same reasons as SACD/DVD-A.

ITS HAPPENING NOW.
Went into crockbuster to get 30 days of night, an exelent horror movie, and it was in Blu, as were four other sections of "new" releases devoted to blu.
Used to be two just a few weeks ago.
Sir talky and other monopolists might not like it but the free market WORKS.
I have been watching HD quite a bit, was surprized when I watched Gone baby gone
a few days ago, the picture on DVD was very pedestrian.
Its what your brain gets used to. My teacher said that NTSC was quite bad, but the almost unlimited amount of colors helped, and the brain filled in a lot.
After watching DVD for awhile it was almost impossible to go back to even S-VHS.
And after watching a lot of HD, WELL, I guess I know where my rebate check is going,
to a new BLU player.
But the "victory" scored by the Blu group will be short lived.
Blu will supplant DVD, backward compatibility will help a great deal.
But people will get bored with their old DVD'S, and soon BLU will the major if not only form of disc.
With the same price structure.
like on Invasion of the body snatchers the industry wont change much, they will just offer a much higher q, at just about the same price

[Feanor]

Succeeding DVD's shouldn't be hard. They'll do that the same way every business gets you to upgrade - planned obsolescence. As they scale back DVD you'll have no choice but to buy BluRay. Patience is all that's required - remember VHS was being scaled back at a time when it still had the largest installed-user base. It could be a year or two more before you see it happen - BluRay is still comparatively young.

Perhaps Sir T could chime in, but most of the talk/print I've heard/seen suggests BluRay's goals aren't nearly as ambitious as DVD's. They will be the dominant format, but they're not expecting to sell as many as DVD. To offset this, the margins will remain higher. It won't take much of a price premium over DVD to make BluRay pretty darn profitable. Now, if it does match or exceed DVD in sales, well that's just gravy.
...

#2 is probably the most significant - mainstream movies are being released in BluRay. Mainstream audio titles are not available in SACD for the most part. Hard to win a format war when you're not even trying to appeal to 99.9% of the market. These format wars have little in common really. BluRay may fail, but it won't be for the same reasons as SACD/DVD-A.

It is always the case that those delivering innovative technology hope to "skim the market". That is, first grab big money from those willing to pay big money, and lower prices only after this has happened. Other factors are competition and value as perceived by consumers including, "how do I get there from here", i.e. backwards compatibility.

SACD failed largely because Sony hoped to stretch out the "skimming phase", viz. intitial Sony offerings were DSD only and players were very expensive. At the same time perceived values was low: high prices, limited selection; marginal or even no sound improvement for most people. The other factor, (which I've mentioned often), is that hard-core audiophiles (who might have heard the better quality) retained their bias for vinyl and continued to reject digital media.

The BluRay scenario is somewhat similar but much less extreme than the SACD situation was, (and is). SACD survives so far as a niche market for audiophile classical music lovers. I suspect BluRay will go main stream, however we need to see decent players for $200 plus at most a 30% premium for BluRay discs.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sir talky and other monopolists might not like it but the free market WORKS.

What the hell are you talking about grandfather christmas? Step away from the beer toothless. I believe in the free market, and always have.

But the "victory" scored by the Blu group will be short lived.
Blu will supplant DVD, backward compatibility will help a great deal.
But people will get bored with their old DVD'S, and soon BLU will the major if not only form of disc.

You should never post when drunk on moonshine hicky. You contridicted yourself in one sentence. If bluray supplants the DVD, then its not a short lived victory. Nobody believes it is going to happen tomorrow. So how can bluray victory be short lived? And don't bring up downloads, you will be dead from alchohol abused before downloads ever overtake the disc.

With the same price structure.
like on Invasion of the body snatchers the industry wont change much, they will just offer a much higher q, at just about the same price

Umm, the pricing structure for both disc and players has already changed. The first generation Samsung BDP-1000 is a profile 1.0 player that was available for $1000. Panasonics first player $1300. Pioneers first player $1200, Philips $899. All were profile 1.0 players with no second audio or video codec, and no ability to to upgrade to either profile 1.1 or 2.0.

Panasonics new player coming out, $749 and its a profile 1.1. Samsung has a new players coming out are bonus view (1.1) for $499. Sharp bonus view Profile 1.1 $499, PS3 40gb bonus view upgradeable to profile 2.0 $399. Daewoo profile 2.0 $499. So Ray Charles can see the pricing structure of the second and third generation players is much lower than the pricing structure of the first generation players.

When I first started purchasing both HD DVD and bluray, all disc were over $30, mostly between $34.99 and $39.99. Now most disc prices land between $20-27 dollars. Things change pixelneck, prices go down as manufacturing efficiencies are realized.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

It is always the case that those delivering innovative technology hope to "skim the market". That is, first grab big money from those willing to pay big money, and lower prices only after this has happened. Other factors are competition and value as perceived by consumers including, "how do I get there from here", i.e. backwards compatibility.

SACD failed largely because Sony hoped to stretch out the "skimming phase", viz. intitial Sony offerings were DSD only and players were very expensive. At the same time perceived values was low: high prices, limited selection; marginal or even no sound improvement for most people. The other factor, (which I've mentioned often), is that hard-core audiophiles (who might have heard the better quality) retained their bias for vinyl and continued to reject digital media.

The BluRay scenario is somewhat similar but much less extreme than the SACD situation was, (and is). SACD survives so far as a niche market for audiophile classical music lovers. I suspect BluRay will go main stream, however we need to see decent players for $200 plus at most a 30% premium for BluRay discs.

Feanor, I think it is not good for many to expect a $200 player this early in the formats life. That is unreasonable, and has no precedent in the history of consumer electronics. I now have to look at things from both sides of the coin. As a consumer, I would like to see disc prices lower certainly, but I also believe in charging a premium for a higher quality product. The same with players, as long as the DVD is around, then there should be a premium price for bluray players. Bluray players have already exceeded the sales of all Laserdisc players through its entire life. It did this in less than 18 months. Bluray has sold more disc than SACD, by a long shot! So I think bluray has gone beyond a SACD comparison. Prices will come down, they already have. But this has to be a natural force of the market, not forced down by some hidden agenda.

[GMichael]

There is talk of the PS3 having yet another price drop by the end of this year.

[Rich-n-Texas]

If I read "economy of scale" one more time I'm going to reach through the internet and CHOKE YOU!!!

[ldgibson76]

Hello "SirT". (Or anyone who cares to comment)

I have a question for you regarding the Blu-ray and it's presumed dedication to maintaining/increasing the quality of the disc despite the demise of HD DVD. We all know that because of the format war, BD was compelled to increase the quality of it's PQ to help maintain it's market share lead over HD DVD. Now that standard DVD's create the only competition for BD, do you think there is a chance that quality could drop a couple of pegs on the priority list. Even the most publicized BD offering lacking PQ, (5th Element) looks better than your standard DVD. In most instances, competition dictates the level of quality required to stay on top. In other words, on a scale from 1 - 10, if your competitor rates a "6", and although you are capable of producing a "10", do you have to maintain the "10" or can you get away with an "7, 8 or 9"?! And now that HD DVD is dead for the most part, there's now no alternative for the consumer. I hope you are able to understand my inquiry. I know it's highly unlikely that BD's quality will slip, but the fore mentioned scenario has been known to happen.

[Feanor]

Feanor, I think it is not good for many to expect a $200 player this early in the formats life. That is unreasonable, and has no precedent in the history of consumer electronics. I now have to look at things from both sides of the coin. As a consumer, I would like to see disc prices lower certainly, but I also believe in charging a premium for a higher quality product. The same with players, as long as the DVD is around, then there should be a premium price for bluray players. Bluray players have already exceeded the sales of all Laserdisc players through its entire life. It did this in less than 18 months. Bluray has sold more disc than SACD, by a long shot! So I think bluray has gone beyond a SACD comparison. Prices will come down, they already have. But this has to be a natural force of the market, not forced down by some hidden agenda.

Right: I don't expect a <$200 player very soon. I'm just saying that will be necessary to go mainstream. Meanwhile makers are quite happy with the DVD => BluRay stratification, that is, they expect and hope to milk the well-heeled buyers for a time. Let it be know, though, that I personally am holding out for mainstream.

Absolutely true that BluRay has gone beyond SACD comparison. Frankly, Joe Average puts video quality above sound quality so BR has a leg up there. Plus BluRay doesn't have an equivalent to the vinyl albatross to contend with.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I noticed you didn't touch the "turd in the punchbowl" comment. Makes a nice visual no?

I was eating Rocky Road ice cream, so I didn't want to touch that!

[Woochifer]

Who knows where the market will go. It's all contingent on whether Blu-ray makes any inroads against the DVD format. And that format war's outcome is a lot less certain than the format war with HD-DVD, where the outcome could have been predicted before the first Blu-ray players even hit the street.

If Blu-ray successfully gains the majority of the home video market, then the DVD format will be well on its way out within five years. Under that scenario, I'd expect Blu-ray players to come close to the commodity level prices that you currently see with DVD players, and the new releases themselves will probably hit price points a few dollars higher than the current DVD prices (I don't see the studios ever pricing new releases the exact same as DVD), with the older titles hitting those favorite bargain bin diving spots where Smoke hangs out.

However, if Blu-ray's market share plateaus out at around 25%, then I can see something similar to a Laserdisc scenario emerging, where hardware prices remain somewhat higher than DVD player prices, and the premium pricing on all Blu-ray titles. I doubt that Blu-ray will get relegated as a collector's niche format like Laserdisc was, but there's no guarantee that it will achieve mainstream success at anywhere near the level of the DVD either.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Hello "SirT".

I have a question for you regarding the Blu-ray and it's presumed dedication to maintaining/increasing the quality of the disc despite the demise of HD DVD. We all know that because of the format war, BD was compelled to increase the quality of it's PQ to help maintain it's market share lead over HD DVD.

Lawrence,
Since the poor quality really only envolved a few titles, and the reason those titles didn't look so hot was a quality control issue, I do not think HD DVD was the reason for the increase in PQ on bluray. I am only aware of House of Flying Daggers and the Fifth Element as being particularly bad, and only two or three more that looked only marginally better than the DVD. Overall, the most mediocre looking titles came from the neutral studios that did HD DVD encodes, and ported them over to bluray. When you look at PQ scores from the top reviewing sites on the internet, bluray just kicks HD DVD butt, and that is no joke. It was reviewers that prompted Sony to check the quality of those two titles that had dirty digital intermediaries that prompted Sony to do a better job of QC on their titles, not HD DVD. Disney has always turned out well done titles, and their PQ scores reflect that. Sony has as well, and so has Fox, so I thinks its arguable that HD DVD has any influence on bluray PQ.

Now that standard DVD's create the only competition for BD, do you think there is a chance that quality could drop a couple of pegs on the priority list. Even the most publicized BD offering lacking PQ, (5th Element) looks better than your standard DVD. In most instances, competition dictates the level of quality required to stay on top. In other words, on a scale from 1 - 10, if your competitor rates a "6", and although you are capable of producing a "10", do you have to maintain the "10" or can you get away with an "7, 8 or 9"?! And now that HD DVD is dead for the most part, there's now no alternative for the consumer. I hope you are able to understand my inquiry. I know it's highly unlikely that BD's quality will slip, but the fore mentioned scenario has been known to happen.

I do not think any studio will turned out substandard blurays just because HD DVD is gone. If anything you will see even better looking and sounding titles with more features and interactivity because the format is beginning to see players that can take advantage of all the features the bluray spec allows for. I do not buy this whole idea that HD DVD was the main factor for the increase in PQ of bluray. I look at things like better encoders being used by bluray studios, larger bandwidth that is finally being utilized, and better quality control during authoring and replication. None of this is done because of another format, it is done to increase the value of the product.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Who knows where the market will go. It's all contingent on whether Blu-ray makes any inroads against the DVD format. And that format war's outcome is a lot less certain than the format war with HD-DVD, where the outcome could have been predicted before the first Blu-ray players even hit the street.

If Blu-ray successfully gains the majority of the home video market, then the DVD format will be well on its way out within five years. Under that scenario, I'd expect Blu-ray players to come close to the commodity level prices that you currently see with DVD players, and the new releases themselves will probably hit price points a few dollars higher than the current DVD prices (I don't see the studios ever pricing new releases the exact same as DVD), with the older titles hitting those favorite bargain bin diving spots where Smoke hangs out.

However, if Blu-ray's market share plateaus out at around 25%, then I can see something similar to a Laserdisc scenario emerging, where hardware prices remain somewhat higher than DVD player prices, and the premium pricing on all Blu-ray titles. I doubt that Blu-ray will get relegated as a collector's niche format like Laserdisc was, but there's no guarantee that it will achieve mainstream success at anywhere near the level of the DVD either.

When I look at the manufacturing base of both players and discs, the amount of investment in replication facilities, the amount of vendors and designers offering authoring tools, and the amount of investment being poured into this new format, it is very difficult to imagine that bluray will be reduced to niche status. It may look that way now, but remember when the DVD looked that way as well?

[Woochifer]

Hello "SirT". (Or anyone who cares to comment)

I have a question for you regarding the Blu-ray and it's presumed dedication to maintaining/increasing the quality of the disc despite the demise of HD DVD. We all know that because of the format war, BD was compelled to increase the quality of it's PQ to help maintain it's market share lead over HD DVD.

That's a false presumption. Any new format will have its share of teething pains. Just look at how many lousy DVD releases came out during the format's first couple of years. And the competition with Blu-ray certainly didn't prod Universal into putting out quality HD-DVD releases. If any side had the most to gain by issuing quality releases, it was HD-DVD.

Now that standard DVD's create the only competition for BD, do you think there is a chance that quality could drop a couple of pegs on the priority list. Even the most publicized BD offering lacking PQ, (5th Element) looks better than your standard DVD. In most instances, competition dictates the level of quality required to stay on top. In other words, on a scale from 1 - 10, if your competitor rates a "6", and although you are capable of producing a "10", do you have to maintain the "10" or can you get away with an "7, 8 or 9"?! And now that HD DVD is dead for the most part, there's now no alternative for the consumer. I hope you are able to understand my inquiry. I know it's highly unlikely that BD's quality will slip, but the fore mentioned scenario has been known to happen.

An issue you're overlooking though is that many of the early Blu-ray releases were single-layer releases encoded using MPEG-2. Once the encoding tools for MPEG-4 AVC became more widely available, and duplicators began working more with dual-layer Blu-ray media, these issues have gone away. This would have happened regardless of whether HD-DVD existed. Sony wound up remastering The Fifth Element and made the reissued version available to anyone who has one of the inferior original versions.

This is no different than the DVD format's infancy. Warner's first releases used single-layer disc media, transferred from inferior sources, and used lower bitrate 384k DD soundtracks. Once the studios figured out how to work with the new format, and prepare better archive masters, the overall quality of DVD releases has increased across the board. Just compare the 1997 DVD release of Batman with the 2005 reissue -- the video and audio quality improvements are huge.

DVD releases have continually improved despite the format having basically no real competition since about 2003 when the DVD format supplanted VHS. There's no reason why Blu-ray releases won't achieve similar consistency with the picture and audio quality, as the format ramps up.

[GMichael]

From the perspective of the average Joe Consumer (that's me), I see Blu-Ray as already being way more prevalent than Laser Disk ever was. You can't watch any sports without seeing adds for BR several times during a game. A walk through Best Buy and you'll see BR advertisement in every direction. It may never hit the heights that DVD has hit, only because DVD's are so cheap and do have a decent quality of their own. The step from VHS to DVD was a bigger step than the one from DVD to BR. But I do think it will take over more than 50% of the market in the next 2 to 3 years.

But that's just my business gut telling me that.