Blu-ray Price Dropping.

[Woochifer]

When I look at the manufacturing base of both players and discs, the amount of investment in replication facilities, the amount of vendors and designers offering authoring tools, and the amount of investment being poured into this new format, it is very difficult to imagine that bluray will be reduced to niche status. It may look that way now, but remember when the DVD looked that way as well?

I doubt that it was be a Laserdisc-sized sliver of the market, but Blu-ray does face a different market than the one that the DVD format entered 11 years ago.

Blu-ray's benefits are most apparent if you own a HDTV, and currently less than half of U.S. households own one. Within five years, I'm sure HDTV households will be solidly in the majority since right now it's getting difficult to find a non-HDTV. The DVD's benefits applied to everyone who owned a color TV, regardless of how old the unit was.

The other issue is simple inertia. I've read that about half of HDTV owners have no HD sources hooked up to their TV, and about half of those owners think that they are watching HD! These are the same people who right now are saying that upconverted DVD is "good enough."

The upcoming digital TV transition might confuse enough of these HDTV owners into ordering HD service "by accident" and maybe then they'll see the inferiority of upconverted DVD. Or maybe it will still be good enough. We just don't know that yet.

I don't doubt that the industry is ramping up, but there's no guarantee that enough Joe6p consumers will go along for the ride. I think Blu-ray can eventually gain enough adoption just by people replacing their broken DVD players with Blu-ray units, but that might be a ways off, and in the meantime you got retail stores once again having to maintain dual inventories, something they have very little patience for.

[ldgibson76]

I doubt that it was be a Laserdisc-sized sliver of the market, but Blu-ray does face a different market than the one that the DVD format entered 11 years ago.

Blu-ray's benefits are most apparent if you own a HDTV, and currently less than half of U.S. households own one. Within five years, I'm sure HDTV households will be solidly in the majority since right now it's getting difficult to find a non-HDTV. The DVD's benefits applied to everyone who owned a color TV, regardless of how old the unit was.

The other issue is simple inertia. I've read that about half of HDTV owners have no HD sources hooked up to their TV, and about half of those owners think that they are watching HD! These are the same people who right now are saying that upconverted DVD is "good enough."

The upcoming digital TV transition might confuse enough of these HDTV owners into ordering HD service "by accident" and maybe then they'll see the inferiority of upconverted DVD. Or maybe it will still be good enough. We just don't know that yet.

I don't doubt that the industry is ramping up, but there's no guarantee that enough Joe6p consumers will go along for the ride. I think Blu-ray can eventually gain enough adoption just by people replacing their broken DVD players with Blu-ray units, but that might be a ways off, and in the meantime you got retail stores once again having to maintain dual inventories, something they have very little patience for.

Wow! "Wooch" is on top of his game today!
All points stated are valid. At the sake of stating the obvious, this market is now one of a volatile nature. Folk are hurting out there. Unlike when dvd was introduced in the mid 90's. The average consumer's buying power was much stronger, so transitioning to the new dvd technology was not only a no-brainer but, financially feasible. If the economy continues to deteriorate, joe6pac won't be converting to anything for a long while. Blu ray will become a product only accessible to the well-to-do. (Buy the new Beowulf in Bluray movie or buy groceries or gas for the car?!! ) And don't think that that couldn't become a reality because some are already there!......The question is, will the economic conditions dictate Blu ray pricing?! Yes, manufacturing cost usually decrease with time. They find cheaper ways to make the product. Both momentum and timing are crucial to making a product affordable. But, if the consumer is too broke to make the initial purchase of the player and/or the software, then how does bluray obtain dominance in this wrecked economy. The statements regarding/assuming Blu ray's path to becoming the standard is at best suspect right now. Regardless of how much has been invested into the technology, bad global economic timing could be Bluray's demise or at least slow it down to a snails pace. Anyone dare to respond?!!!!
I'm not a fan of today's economic condition! Obvious, ya think?!!

[blackraven]

The ultimate electronics store near me, sold about 400 Sony BDP 300 BRP's last month!
BR is heare to stay!

[ldgibson76]

The ultimate electronics store near me, sold about 400 Sony BDP 300 BRP's last month!
BR is heare to stay!

"BR"!

Please understand, I'm not trying to predict the demise of Bluray. The contrary, for real!
But check out the trends! Consumer spending is tanking right now and I'm sorry, if joe6pac has to choose between a Bluray player and his electric bill, guess who wins?! Those of us that can afford to enjoy the benefits of Bluray technology in the grand scheme of things, as of right now, are the minority. Oh that's right, the American consumer is waiting for that rebate check in May to purchase their new blu ray player!
By the way, was the Sony on sale!?! I'm sure it wasn't the normal $399, especially with the new models poised to hit the shelves soon. I just purchased the new Panny DMBD30K model and I've yet to buy or rent a bluray movie. Now I must say, that I haven't un-boxed it yet, but, I'm in no rush either. I may return it for the incoming new Sony BDP-330 model, and use the extra $99 to purchase 3 or 4 BD movies. I'm cheap like that.

[Woochifer]

Wow! "Wooch" is on top of his game today!
All points stated are valid. At the sake of stating the obvious, this market is now one of a volatile nature. Folk are hurting out there. Unlike when dvd was introduced in the mid 90's. The average consumer's buying power was much stronger, so transitioning to the new dvd technology was not only a no-brainer but, financially feasible. If the economy continues to deteriorate, joe6pac won't be converting to anything for a long while. Blu ray will become a product only accessible to the well-to-do. (Buy the new Beowulf in Bluray movie or buy groceries or gas for the car?!! ) And don't think that that couldn't become a reality because some are already there!......The question is, will the economic conditions dictate Blu ray pricing?! Yes, manufacturing cost usually decrease with time. They find cheaper ways to make the product. Momentum and timing is one of the keys to making a product affordable. But, if the consumer is too broke to make the initial purchase of the player and/or the software, then how does bluray obtain dominance in this wrecked economy. The statements regarding/assuming Blu ray's path to becoming the standard is at best suspect right now. Regardless of how much has been invested into the technology, bad global economic timing could be Bluray's demise or at least slow it down to a snails pace. Anyone dare to respond?!!!!
I'm not a fan of today's economic condition! Obvious, ya think?!!

I doubt that economic conditions will affect Blu-ray uptake all that much. In recessionary times, people tend to spend more time at home and that's where home entertainment comes in. Despite the stagnant wages over the past decade, you notice any slowdown in the transition over to flat screen TVs? I certainly haven't, and if the market was strictly dictated by price, it would stand to reason that CRTs would have remained viable as the price points on those TVs bottomed out years ago.

People might hold back on extravagances or big ticket purchases, but I don't think that a $350 Blu-ray player (and likely $200 by year's end) is extravagant or a big ticket purchase. The challenge is not the cost per se, but rather the perception of value. Do people really value watching everything in HD? Or is upconverted SD good enough? For people who see HD and value the improved picture quality, they will go for Blu-ray soon enough regardless of the economic conditions.

[Smokey]

Who knows where the market will go.
If Blu-ray successfully gains the majority of the home video market, then the DVD format will be well on its way out within five years. Under that scenario, I'd expect Blu-ray players to come close to the commodity level prices that you currently see with DVD players, and the new releases themselves will probably hit price points a few dollars higher than the current DVD prices (I don't see the studios ever pricing new releases the exact same as DVD), with the older titles hitting those favorite bargain bin diving spots where Smoke hangs out.

However, if Blu-ray's market share plateaus out at around 25%, then I can see something similar to a Laserdisc scenario emerging, where hardware prices remain somewhat higher than DVD player prices, and the premium pricing on all Blu-ray titles. I doubt that Blu-ray will get relegated as a collector's niche format like Laserdisc was, but there's no guarantee that it will achieve mainstream success at anywhere near the level of the DVD either.

Wow, that is a somber post from Wooch regarding Bluray. And it might be worth exploring.

You said Bluray face different scenario DVD did 11 years ago as it enter main stream and that is not too far fetched. First difference would be one have to have HDTV to enjoy HD discs, second is Internet (although I don't think downloading a movie is attractive option) and finally VOD from cable companies.

For example before I had cable, use to buy 3 or 4 DVDs everyweek. But since got [comcast] cable three months ago, I'm down to buying may 1 or 2 if any. The VOD (Video On Demand) pretty much killed that urge as I get to watch most of movies for free.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I doubt that economic conditions will affect Blu-ray uptake all that much. In recessionary times, people tend to spend more time at home and that's where home entertainment comes in. Despite the stagnant wages over the past decade, you notice any slowdown in the transition over to flat screen TVs? I certainly haven't, and if the market was strictly dictated by price, it would stand to reason that CRTs would have remained viable as the price points on those TVs bottomed out years ago.

People might hold back on extravagances or big ticket purchases, but I don't think that a $350 Blu-ray player (and likely $200 by year's end) is extravagant or a big ticket purchase. The challenge is not the cost per se, but rather the perception of value. Do people really value watching everything in HD? Or is upconverted SD good enough? For people who see HD and value the improved picture quality, they will go for Blu-ray soon enough regardless of the economic conditions.

To your last statement, I think education is going to be the key. Disney has gone a long way towards educating folks about the advantages of bluray in a traveling kiosk that is traveling from mall to mall. I saw it at the Westfield Mall in Downtown SF, and was really impressed with the crowds that gathered around the display, and who were attentively listening to the presentation. The last time I spoke to the touring group, they told me that post Warner annoucement, crowds were getting larger and larger with each stop. So that is good news(where I work is pretty close to the marketing department).

The acceptance of bluray is no slam dunk. The BDA announced at their last meeting they were going to put on a full advertising blitz worldwide for bluray. This is not just for bluray standalone players either, but for computer drives, the PS3, and the movies as well.

I remember when DVD was first introduced. VHS was firmly in place, VHS prices were low, and folks said that DVD would never take off. I think the uncertainty of bringing any new audio/video format to the consumer has this element of doubt and negativity. Bluray will be no different.
I think the big boost for bluray is the fact that Europe has certainly embraced the format via the PS3, and it is predicted that Europe will overtake the US in disc sales by the end of the year. It took several years for DVD to get this wide of an acceptance in Europe. Bluray has proliferated way quicker all over the world than DVD was at this same period in its life.

When you start to see things that bluray can do being fully advertised(like D-Box support, BD live downloads, superior interactivity) and the DVD just becoming a bare bones format, I think to some degree it will compell some folks to opt in in due time. Nobody is in a hurry to develope the market, they just want to do it well.

[blackraven]

I think that you can look at HD TV sales and get an Idea about how BR sales will go. At least the people I know who have bought an HD TV have also bought BR players or have a PS3. I think that many people that buy an HD TV want to get the best picture they can when watching movies and therefore are investing in BR players.

The BR players at my local store were not on sale.

Many HD TV's are 1080p and the people that buy them want to take advantage of the 1080p.

[Feanor]

Who knows where the market will go. It's all contingent on whether Blu-ray makes any inroads against the DVD format. And that format war's outcome is a lot less certain than the format war with HD-DVD, where the outcome could have been predicted before the first Blu-ray players even hit the street.

....

There are lots of people out there who don't own an HDTV, to wit, myself. There is no way I'm going to buy BluRay before I've got one. My first one is likely to be a 42" plazma with 768p, nothing larger or fancier than that.

But like I said, the BluRay makers and industry in general are will be content with a DVD / BluRay stratification for a while since it will allow them higher margins on BluRay, (longer period of market "skimming"). But I don't doubt that BluRay will gradually take over.

[blackraven]

The benefit of a BRP is that it also plays DVD's and upconverts them. This will almost certainly help with sales and the conversion to BR.

[Woochifer]

Wow, that is a somber post from Wooch regarding Bluray. And it might be worth exploring.

You said Bluray face different scenario DVD did 11 years ago as it enter main stream and that is not too far fetched. First difference would be one have to have HDTV to enjoy HD discs, second is Internet (although I don't think downloading a movie is attractive option) and finally VOD from cable companies.

For example before I had cable, use to buy 3 or 4 DVDs everyweek. But since got [comcast] cable three months ago, I'm down to buying may 1 or 2 if any. The VOD (Video On Demand) pretty much killed that urge as I get to watch most of movies for free.

Gee Smoke, hard for DVD to compete with that new fangled cutting edge cable TV thing to contend with!

As I've posted before, I don't see downloading as anything but a substitute for video rentals and PPV. There are too many restrictions and not a whole lot of selection for anyone who wants to archive and collect their movies.

Conceptually, I see VOD as simply a new wrinkle on time shifting -- conceptually not all that different from a VCR or DVR. As with downloading, VOD is not an archive format, which makes it fundamentally different from DVDs, which are a purchase-driven product.

To your last statement, I think education is going to be the key. Disney has gone a long way towards educating folks about the advantages of bluray in a traveling kiosk that is traveling from mall to mall. I saw it at the Westfield Mall in Downtown SF, and was really impressed with the crowds that gathered around the display, and who were attentively listening to the presentation. The last time I spoke to the touring group, they told me that post Warner annoucement, crowds were getting larger and larger with each stop. So that is good news(where I work is pretty close to the marketing department).

The acceptance of bluray is no slam dunk. The BDA announced at their last meeting they were going to put on a full advertising blitz worldwide for bluray. This is not just for bluray standalone players either, but for computer drives, the PS3, and the movies as well.

Agree that educating the public is key, and I would go further that education needs to involve not only Blu-ray, but HD in general. The public is still fuzzy as to what's really needed to get HD all the way up and down the chain, and Blu-ray's but one component among many that consumers need to be aware of when they buy HDTVs.

I remember when DVD was first introduced. VHS was firmly in place, VHS prices were low, and folks said that DVD would never take off. I think the uncertainty of bringing any new audio/video format to the consumer has this element of doubt and negativity. Bluray will be no different.
I think the big boost for bluray is the fact that Europe has certainly embraced the format via the PS3, and it is predicted that Europe will overtake the US in disc sales by the end of the year. It took several years for DVD to get this wide of an acceptance in Europe. Bluray has proliferated way quicker all over the world than DVD was at this same period in its life.

When you start to see things that bluray can do being fully advertised(like D-Box support, BD live downloads, superior interactivity) and the DVD just becoming a bare bones format, I think to some degree it will compell some folks to opt in in due time. Nobody is in a hurry to develope the market, they just want to do it well.

At the time of the DVD introduction, I thought there was plenty of pent up demand for a non-tape based video format. The public seems to have a natural aversion to tape media -- it can wear out, break, tangle easily, and is a linear format. Once CDs made their way into portable and mobile devices, cassettes disappeared in a hurry. A current example is in the camcorder market where the MiniDV format is rapidly getting displaced by 3.5" DVD-R, even though MiniDV is cheaper, with superior image quality, higher data capacity, and better editing capability. The CD had already gotten the public used to the 5.25" disc size and random track access, and it made too much sense to move that form factor over to the video side.

I know that before the DVD came out, I was looking into Laserdisc because of its bias towards widescreen and the inclusion of supplemental features. But, the hardware and disc prices never came down to my level, so I stayed on the sidelines. Generally though, I was getting tired of renting worn out tapes, the lack of widescreen support with VHS releases, the high list prices when titles first come out on video (i.e., the VHS rental pricing schedule), and the need to rewind before returning something.

The DVD brought a lot of new things to the table for a multitude of consumers, and it was easy to see the value in DVD, even if you're not a stickler for picture and audio quality. The discs didn't wear out, DVDs had a lot of new multimedia capabilities, they took less room on the bookshelf, and they carried relatively low new release prices.

Blu-ray is an evolutionary step that pins its hopes almost entirely on improvements to the video and audio quality, and consumer demand for that quality. It remains to be seen if that demand is enough to carry the day against the entrenched DVD format. Fortunately, the picture improvements with Blu-ray are fairly obvious, even in a Costco warehouse, so this won't be repeat of SACD/DVD-A where the differences were only apparent under much more controlled conditions.

I think the real acid test will be when consumers have to replace a broken DVD player after the Blu-ray player prices dip below $200 -- will they replace their DVD player with a Blu-ray player or go with a commodity-priced DVD player, even if the price difference is less than $100 or even $50? If enough consumers choose to spend a little extra for the Blu-ray capability, then it's not a huge leap for those same consumers to then choose a Blu-ray version over a DVD when purchasing videos. The key though is keeping the retailers on board during this transition period. If demand at any point starts to plateau, then I can see retailers cutting back their Blu-ray support, which can create its own downward momentum.

[GMichael]

It would be a big help if Blu-Ray and HD TV's would come with HD cables instead of composite cables. Mr Average Joe will assume that the cables it comes with is all it needs, unless Mr Best Buy explains to him how he needs an $80 HDMI cable.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Gee Smoke, hard for DVD to compete with that new fangled cutting edge cable TV thing to contend with!

As I've posted before, I don't see downloading as anything but a substitute for video rentals and PPV. There are too many restrictions and not a whole lot of selection for anyone who wants to archive and collect their movies.

Conceptually, I see VOD as simply a new wrinkle on time shifting -- conceptually not all that different from a VCR or DVR. As with downloading, VOD is not an archive format, which makes it fundamentally different from DVDs, which are a purchase-driven product.



Agree that educating the public is key, and I would go further that education needs to involve not only Blu-ray, but HD in general. The public is still fuzzy as to what's really needed to get HD all the way up and down the chain, and Blu-ray's but one component among many that consumers need to be aware of when they buy HDTVs.



At the time of the DVD introduction, I thought there was plenty of pent up demand for a non-tape based video format. The public seems to have a natural aversion to tape media -- it can wear out, break, tangle easily, and is a linear format. Once CDs made their way into portable and mobile devices, cassettes disappeared in a hurry. A current example is in the camcorder market where the MiniDV format is rapidly getting displaced by 3.5" DVD-R, even though MiniDV is cheaper, with superior image quality, higher data capacity, and better editing capability. The CD had already gotten the public used to the 5.25" disc size and random track access, and it made too much sense to move that form factor over to the video side.

I know that before the DVD came out, I was looking into Laserdisc because of its bias towards widescreen and the inclusion of supplemental features. But, the hardware and disc prices never came down to my level, so I stayed on the sidelines. Generally though, I was getting tired of renting worn out tapes, the lack of widescreen support with VHS releases, the high list prices when titles first come out on video (i.e., the VHS rental pricing schedule), and the need to rewind before returning something.

The DVD brought a lot of new things to the table for a multitude of consumers, and it was easy to see the value in DVD, even if you're not a stickler for picture and audio quality. The discs didn't wear out, DVDs had a lot of new multimedia capabilities, they took less room on the bookshelf, and they carried relatively low new release prices.

Blu-ray is an evolutionary step that pins its hopes almost entirely on improvements to the video and audio quality, and consumer demand for that quality. It remains to be seen if that demand is enough to carry the day against the entrenched DVD format. Fortunately, the picture improvements with Blu-ray are fairly obvious, even in a Costco warehouse, so this won't be repeat of SACD/DVD-A where the differences were only apparent under much more controlled conditions.

I think the real acid test will be when consumers have to replace a broken DVD player after the Blu-ray player prices dip below $200 -- will they replace their DVD player with a Blu-ray player or go with a commodity-priced DVD player, even if the price difference is less than $100 or even $50? If enough consumers choose to spend a little extra for the Blu-ray capability, then it's not a huge leap for those same consumers to then choose a Blu-ray version over a DVD when purchasing videos. The key though is keeping the retailers on board during this transition period. If demand at any point starts to plateau, then I can see retailers cutting back their Blu-ray support, which can create its own downward momentum.

The T-man grabs Wooch by the head, does a double finger poke in his eyes, and says..."take that you brotha from another father!" LOL.

I was reading on the insiders forum that those chinese players that were supposed to save HD DVD, were actually bluray players which will be announced very soon, and delivered to consumer by the end of the year. These players will be priced at less than $250 (estimated), and will include the smaller drive, smaller laser assembly, and fewer parts which makes it cheaper to manufacture. I think the BDA is going to try and woo consumer away from DVD when they look to replace that DVD player. I do not think retailers are going to be much of an issue in supporting bluray. They are looking at this as their next money train like the DVD was.

Waits for Wooch's reply...

[kexodusc]

Think you guys are missing a pretty big variable in all of this.

DVD will exist as long as the studios allow it to - if they choose to scale back the releases, even by delaying the DVD release date to something after BluRay, just to ween the world of DVD and onto BluRay, we'll be addicted to BR before you can say H.264.

Last I checked, new releases still carried some pull. I'm guessing the studios that get a spiff of the BluRay royalties already have a big carrot dangled in front of them to start the transition process.

[GMichael]

Think you guys are missing a pretty big variable in all of this.

DVD will exist as long as the studios allow it to - if they choose to scale back the releases, even by delaying the DVD release date to something after BluRay, just to ween the world of DVD and onto BluRay, we'll be addicted to BR before you can say H.264.

Last I checked, new releases still carried some pull. I'm guessing the studios that get a spiff of the BluRay royalties already have a big carrot dangled in front of them to start the transition process.

I don't think that this will happen this year, but it probably will happen next.

[Woochifer]

The T-man grabs Wooch by the head, does a double finger poke in his eyes, and says..."take that you brotha from another father!" LOL.

Ah, been a while since you last directed them flamethrowers in my direction! Memories of good times ... just catch me if you can old dude!

I was reading on the insiders forum that those chinese players that were supposed to save HD DVD, were actually bluray players which will be announced very soon, and delivered to consumer by the end of the year. These players will be priced at less than $250 (estimated), and will include the smaller drive, smaller laser assembly, and fewer parts which makes it cheaper to manufacture. I think the BDA is going to try and woo consumer away from DVD when they look to replace that DVD player. I do not think retailers are going to be much of an issue in supporting bluray. They are looking at this as their next money train like the DVD was.

I thought that the BDA was going to more tightly control to whom they issue licenses. Part of the problem with the DVD format's drunken sailor approach to licensing is that so many fly-by-night plants became DVD licensees and cranked out millions of cheap but poorly made players. This in turn rapidly commodified the DVD player, and made it a barely profitable venture for retailers and manufacturers alike.

The market seems headed towards the $200 price point by Christmas, no matter what any Chinese companies might have in mind. Might be a foolhardy move by the BDA to bring the bottomfeeders into the market, and flood store shelves with millions of second rate Blu-ray players.

I can see the profit motive with the retailers, but I wonder how long they will stay with Blu-ray if the adoption rate plateaus at some point. Blu-ray's off to a decent start, all things considered, but it will take a lot to displace the DVD. It's not an easy long-in-the-tooth target like VHS, which had already been on the market for 22 years by the time the DVD format came out.

Think you guys are missing a pretty big variable in all of this.

DVD will exist as long as the studios allow it to - if they choose to scale back the releases, even by delaying the DVD release date to something after BluRay, just to ween the world of DVD and onto BluRay, we'll be addicted to BR before you can say H.264.

Last I checked, new releases still carried some pull. I'm guessing the studios that get a spiff of the BluRay royalties already have a big carrot dangled in front of them to start the transition process.

Plausible scenario, and definitely one that would steer the market towards Blu-ray. But, it also has the potential of backfiring with frustrated consumers opting out of the DVD and Blu-ray markets altogether.

The studios milked the VHS cow for as long as they did because they could still make money off of it, and I don't see them abandoning the DVD or neutering DVD releases so long as there's still plenty of revenue potential left in that format. Unless the studios maintain the higher price points for Blu-ray (which is entirely possible), it won't matter if new releases come out on Blu-ray or DVD. The gravy train for the studios is in the library titles by getting collectors to repurchase older movies. Problem here is that most of the heavily requested library titles only came to DVD within the past 5 or 6 years. The studios do have a financial incentive to promote Blu-ray, but I'm not sure that it's enough to start relegating the DVD to second-class status.

[Smokey]

I thought that the BDA was going to more tightly control to whom they issue licenses. .

That is what I thought too, and now Sir TT said that chinese blu-ray players are on the way. What happened here??

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Ah, been a while since you last directed them flamethrowers in my direction! Memories of good times ... just catch me if you can old dude!

Old dude?? Why you young chicken eatin whippersnapper!

I thought that the BDA was going to more tightly control to whom they issue licenses. Part of the problem with the DVD format's drunken sailor approach to licensing is that so many fly-by-night plants became DVD licensees and cranked out millions of cheap but poorly made players. This in turn rapidly commodified the DVD player, and made it a barely profitable venture for retailers and manufacturers alike.

Actually this is not a liscense to manufacture, its an order by BB and Walmart and will be their house brand player. The BDA wants to cover all price points, and have something for everyone. The Walmarts and BB cover the lower end, and the major players take the mid and high end. This is to keep the majors from having to use their names attached to a budget player.

The market seems headed towards the $200 price point by Christmas, no matter what any Chinese companies might have in mind. Might be a foolhardy move by the BDA to bring the bottomfeeders into the market, and flood store shelves with millions of second rate Blu-ray players.

These will not be bottom feeders. These chinese manufacturers have worked with Sigma designs, Pioneer, and Sony to create players with less parts, less complexity of design, and more standard type chipsets. The will probably only support DTHD, DD+, and PCM(so far no word on Dts MA lossless) will be profile 1.1, and will eschew things like the ethernet port, and the complex laser assembly currently being used. The bluray drive will be smaller as well the laser assembly, so the whole player will be alot smaller.

I can see the profit motive with the retailers, but I wonder how long they will stay with Blu-ray if the adoption rate plateaus at some point. Blu-ray's off to a decent start, all things considered, but it will take a lot to displace the DVD. It's not an easy long-in-the-tooth target like VHS, which had already been on the market for 22 years by the time the DVD format came out.

Granted, you are correct. However there is a big motivation by everyone for bluray to succeed. If downloading becomes the norm, the retailers are shut out of that business in both hardware and software. Retailers like BB and Walmart do not want to be shut out of one of their most lucrative business. So they are well motivated to sell bluray. The manufacturers and the studio need bluray to succeed because there really is no effective business model for digital sell through. Both the studios and the manufactuers see this as a way of going back to profitability, something they have not seen in years. The manufacturers want it to succeed because they will be shut out as well if downloads take off. Based on the minutes of the last meeting of the BDA, it seems everyone stands to gain if bluray becomes widely accepted, and they are very enthused about the format in general.

Plausible scenario, and definitely one that would steer the market towards Blu-ray. But, it also has the potential of backfiring with frustrated consumers opting out of the DVD and Blu-ray markets altogether.

While this is possible, it seems unlikely. It seems that this war has created a pent up demand of some sorts. When I got my NDP report last wednesday, one of the things I noticed is that bluray exclusive titles were selling very well, as were players. It used to be the least selling titles had numbers in the single digits. Now the entire top ten is in the twenties, and that is a good sign that all titles(instead of just the new releases) are starting to see a sales increase. Every title in the top 15 was in the twenties.

The studios milked the VHS cow for as long as they did because they could still make money off of it, and I don't see them abandoning the DVD or neutering DVD releases so long as there's still plenty of revenue potential left in that format. Unless the studios maintain the higher price points for Blu-ray (which is entirely possible), it won't matter if new releases come out on Blu-ray or DVD. The gravy train for the studios is in the library titles by getting collectors to repurchase older movies. Problem here is that most of the heavily requested library titles only came to DVD within the past 5 or 6 years. The studios do have a financial incentive to promote Blu-ray, but I'm not sure that it's enough to start relegating the DVD to second-class status.

They see this a bit differently. When the DVD came to market, VHS sales were already starting to slow down a bit. This is currently happening with DVD, as all of the studio are running out of library titles to release to the format. They are currently relying on television programs on DVD to keep sales from dropping dramatically. I do see them releasing DVD's without all of the extra material in a bare bones style while heavily promoting blurays extras and interactive features. If you can produce a player that hits the sweet spot ($200) along with a very effective marketing campaign, you chance for sucess goes up dramatically. You will see bundling of players and HDTV by the majors, and players at many different price points. I think when Paramount, Universal start releasing titles, there is going to be a huge jump in disc sales. Especially for Universal who has not released a thing in bluray. When all of the studio stop releasing titles to HD DVD, and this whole thing is officially over, I think there is going to be a real push for the format. This is just my opinion. We will see how this plays out. But I think everyone is going to see what bluray is really capable of in the coming months. I think there is going to be a steady increase in interest in bluray, but it will not be quick or a short term gain. The studio and manufacturers are going to have to work their collective a$$e$ off to make this happen. That was the general mood at the BDA meeting a week ago. Nobody thinks this is a slam dunk, and nobody is ready to take their foot off the accelerator.

[Woochifer]

Old dude?? Why you young chicken eatin whippersnapper!

Yah, like I'm one to talk! We'll both be getting fitted for walkers around the same time!

Actually this is not a liscense to manufacture, its an order by BB and Walmart and will be their house brand player. The BDA wants to cover all price points, and have something for everyone. The Walmarts and BB cover the lower end, and the major players take the mid and high end. This is to keep the majors from having to use their names attached to a budget player.

These will not be bottom feeders. These chinese manufacturers have worked with Sigma designs, Pioneer, and Sony to create players with less parts, less complexity of design, and more standard type chipsets. The will probably only support DTHD, DD+, and PCM(so far no word on Dts MA lossless) will be profile 1.1, and will eschew things like the ethernet port, and the complex laser assembly currently being used. The bluray drive will be smaller as well the laser assembly, so the whole player will be alot smaller.

That sort of makes sense for the short-term, but given how rapidly the price points on Blu-ray have dropped, I wonder how long this type of Chinese strategy can remain profitable. It can work if BB and Wal-Mart contract with an outsource manufacturer for a one-off production run, but then that truly would be not all that different from how bottomfeeding off-brands like Apex Digital operated. The need for these types of cheap Chinese players exists only as long as the brand-name manufacturers keep their price points above about $200. Once the price point dips below $200, then I think demand for these types of generic players goes away.

And these types of manufacturing short-cuts that you're talking about, how long before the Sonys and Panasonics of the BDA begin to adopt those practices for their own players?

Granted, you are correct. However there is a big motivation by everyone for bluray to succeed. If downloading becomes the norm, the retailers are shut out of that business in both hardware and software. Retailers like BB and Walmart do not want to be shut out of one of their most lucrative business. So they are well motivated to sell bluray. The manufacturers and the studio need bluray to succeed because there really is no effective business model for digital sell through. Both the studios and the manufactuers see this as a way of going back to profitability, something they have not seen in years. The manufacturers want it to succeed because they will be shut out as well if downloads take off. Based on the minutes of the last meeting of the BDA, it seems everyone stands to gain if bluray becomes widely accepted, and they are very enthused about the format in general.

Right now, they are definitely motivated to promote Blu-ray. I only wonder how long they'll wait for Blu-ray to reach critical mass. In terms of shelf space, BB has expanded their Blu-ray sections quite a bit since the format went online. The question though is what would happen to those Blu-ray sections if the format's adoption rate begins to stall and plateau somewhere around the 20% mark. At that point, then they would need to revisit whether that floor space for Blu-ray would be better served going to other product lines. So long as there's steady growth, then I can see retailers staying on board.

They see this a bit differently. When the DVD came to market, VHS sales were already starting to slow down a bit. This is currently happening with DVD, as all of the studio are running out of library titles to release to the format. They are currently relying on television programs on DVD to keep sales from dropping dramatically.

One difference is that VHS was primarily driven by rentals, and the accompanying two-tiered pricing structure that saw the majority of new releases priced around $80 to $100, and then later lowered to around $20 for retail sell-through. The DVD completely turned the home video business model upside down when the studios saw that they could make a lot more money by selling large quantities of new releases directly to consumers, rather than relying on inflated margins paid on copies purchased by video rental stores.

Blu-ray definitely allows the studios to mine their libraries for another round of double-dipping, but I don't see anywhere near the same buildup of video collections with Blu-ray that we saw with the DVD. The studios might be able to maintain higher margins with Blu-ray releases by simply keeping the list prices $5-$10 higher than the DVD version, like we see now. But, that kind of two-tiered pricing would also slow down Blu-ray adoption.

I do see them releasing DVD's without all of the extra material in a bare bones style while heavily promoting blurays extras and interactive features. If you can produce a player that hits the sweet spot ($200) along with a very effective marketing campaign, you chance for sucess goes up dramatically. You will see bundling of players and HDTV by the majors, and players at many different price points.

Putting the better features into the Blu-ray version would make sense for trying to get consumers to choose that version over the DVD version. But, getting consumers to pay a higher list price might be a harder sell.

I'm already seeing a lot of player/HDTV bundles out there. Makes a lot of sense for manufacturers to promote the hell out of this approach, since it encourages adoption of Blu-ray, but doesn't accelerate the already steep price declines for standalone players.

I read about an analyst report today that projects Blu-ray player prices down to $300 by Christmas and $200 by the end of next year. I don't see how Blu-ray can hold up those hardware price points -- I actually think that Blu-ray player prices will be closer to $200 than $300 this Christmas, and won't be that much higher than DVD players by the end of next year. Where things will really start to take off is in the higher end market, where Blu-ray players from the likes of Denon are only now beginning to come out.

I think when Paramount, Universal start releasing titles, there is going to be a huge jump in disc sales. Especially for Universal who has not released a thing in bluray. When all of the studio stop releasing titles to HD DVD, and this whole thing is officially over, I think there is going to be a real push for the format. This is just my opinion. We will see how this plays out. But I think everyone is going to see what bluray is really capable of in the coming months. I think there is going to be a steady increase in interest in bluray, but it will not be quick or a short term gain. The studio and manufacturers are going to have to work their collective a$$e$ off to make this happen. That was the general mood at the BDA meeting a week ago. Nobody thinks this is a slam dunk, and nobody is ready to take their foot off the accelerator.

In a way, the studios have to make the big push. Most of the sought-after titles have already come out on DVD, and I doubt that downloads will make the studios' libraries any more valuable. Blu-ray is probably the most lucrative opportunity left for the studios to try squeezing new revenue out of their backcatalog. I hope that Blu-ray can make a compelling enough case to keep the studios and retailers on board, while consumers struggle to figure this whole thing out.

[drseid]

It is always the case that those delivering innovative technology hope to "skim the market". That is, first grab big money from those willing to pay big money, and lower prices only after this has happened. Other factors are competition and value as perceived by consumers including, "how do I get there from here", i.e. backwards compatibility.

SACD failed largely because Sony hoped to stretch out the "skimming phase", viz. intitial Sony offerings were DSD only and players were very expensive. At the same time perceived values was low: high prices, limited selection; marginal or even no sound improvement for most people. The other factor, (which I've mentioned often), is that hard-core audiophiles (who might have heard the better quality) retained their bias for vinyl and continued to reject digital media.

The BluRay scenario is somewhat similar but much less extreme than the SACD situation was, (and is). SACD survives so far as a niche market for audiophile classical music lovers. I suspect BluRay will go main stream, however we need to see decent players for $200 plus at most a 30% premium for BluRay discs.

I agree for the most part here... The sub $200 HD DVD *pricing* model *was* what most mainstream consumers were looking for and will be necessary for Blu-ray's mainstream success now that consumers have had a taste. That said, a bit of skimming by the BD manufacturers for the next 12 months or so may be the best way to go for them profitability-wise (they just will sell fewer players that way). After a year of skimming, they can gradually lower the prices until they hit the $199 price point. I do agree with previous comments though that a $50-$99 price level may not be seen at all, or at least not for a *very* long time. That price point should not be necessary to attract the vast majority of users... sub $200 retail is the key (in many cases that would mean a street price in the $150 range someday).

Disc pricing definitely has come down, and I believe it will come down further still. I don't think BD will be successful long-term with the mainstream buyers if the average street price for a disc is much more than $14.99 - $15.99. In many cases on sale at least, discs are selling for close to this already... it would not be difficult (and would still be quite profitable) for manufacturers to lower the retail pricing of discs to $19.99 (in effect lowering the street prices to the "magic" level) as disc sales increase and economies of scale can be obtained.

---Dave

[pixelthis]

The moneys in the software, the idea is to give the players away, practically.
Of course sir talky says that the BR camp will do the opposite and go for a profit on
the players.
Typical.
Well, the great unwashed arent as thrilled with Blu as most geeks.
This format will have to be sold
And with the likes of sir talky working in the blu camp (which I somehow doubt)
its not surprizing that they are going the wrong way.
Not that it matters. Blu will eventually supplant DVD.
It will cost about the same.
The discs will cost about the same.
And history will look back and see blue laser tech as an "improvement" in the DVD format
that was quickly asorbed

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

The moneys in the software, the idea is to give the players away, practically.
Of course sir talky says that the BR camp will do the opposite and go for a profit on
the players.
Typical.
Well, the great unwashed arent as thrilled with Blu as most geeks.
This format will have to be sold
And with the likes of sir talky working in the blu camp (which I somehow doubt)
its not surprizing that they are going the wrong way.
Not that it matters. Blu will eventually supplant DVD.
It will cost about the same.
The discs will cost about the same.
And history will look back and see blue laser tech as an "improvement" in the DVD format
that was quickly asorbed

Old stupid one. How in the hell does Samsung afford to make a player if they just give them away? They do not make software, and this is not the gaming industry. If you give the damn player away, then they'll be no players to play the software in. The same companines that make the software do not make the hardware, and visa versa. What kind of burntpixel comment is that? You must have been the idiot in charge of marketing HD DVD. Give your players away, and exit the market with half a billion in losses. Thats the old pixeless way.

I do not think the BDA needs a welfare collecting old fool to tell them how to do business. If you could do better than they are, then why are you sitting here complaining about everything, and they are making millions? Perhaps you should realize that you are better cleaning crap out of a toilet than running a business. Giving players away, what an idiot.

As far as believing where I work, I could not care any less. Whatever I am doing, I am not dumpster diving like you, I am not scraping the bottom of the barrel like you, and I have all of my original teeth in my mouth, unlike you. So go back to your moonshine, and opine about what it was like when you actually had a functioning brain to use, and I am sure that was never.

[GMichael]

This thread brings back such fond memories for me.

[kexodusc]

Old stupid one. How in the hell does Samsung afford to make a player if they just give them away? They do not make software, and this is not the gaming industry. If you give the damn player away, then they'll be no players to play the software in. The same companines that make the software do not make the hardware, and visa versa. What kind of burntpixel comment is that? You must have been the idiot in charge of marketing HD DVD. Give your players away, and exit the market with half a billion in losses. Thats the old pixeless way.

I do not think the BDA needs a welfare collecting old fool to tell them how to do business. If you could do better than they are, then why are you sitting here complaining about everything, and they are making millions? Perhaps you should realize that you are better cleaning crap out of a toilet than running a business. Giving players away, what an idiot.

As far as believing where I work, I could not care any less. Whatever I am doing, I am not dumpster diving like you, I am not scraping the bottom of the barrel like you, and I have all of my original teeth in my mouth, unlike you. So go back to your moonshine, and opine about what it was like when you actually had a functioning brain to use, and I am sure that was never.

There you go making sense again, Sir Talky...

[Rich-n-Texas]

This thread brings back such fond memories for me.

The true definition of "Head-bangers Ball".