Blu Tide Continues to Turn: Porn Studios Ready to Abandon HD-DVD?

[Ajani]

But, you're making my point here. The trend on the video side is towards larger screen sizes and higher resolutions at more affordable price points. It further entrenches the home living room/media room as the primary viewing place for video content.

The audio side is all about mobility. The iPod sales alone more than TRIPLED the revenue for all home audio components COMBINED. The innovation there is in increasing the functionality and utility of downloaded and ripped audio content. And like I said, that's nothing more than a continuation of a trend towards mobility that's been ongoing in the audio industry for the better part of 50 years.

The video side sees no such move towards mobility. Yes, there are more portable devices that can play downloaded videos, but that capability does not drive sales, whereas larger screens and higher resolutions are driving sales.

I don't think we disagree on this point. Video is mostly about 'bigger and better' with only a small emphasis on 'portable and convenient', while audio is generally the reverse (with audiophiles driving the bigger and better segment of the market).

But I'm just not convinced that this as a result of consumers being willing to pay for 'bigger and better' or whether it is as a result of the fact that 'bigger and better' keeps getting cheaper and more available.

I see it much like a consumer looking to buy a new car, imagine that you have a budget of 15K and instead of the usual Corolla and Civic options you can now get a BMW 3 Or a Mercedes C class... I think you might well just buy the BMW/Mercedes... now if the BMW/Mercedes were 30K you'd probably just stick with the Civic/Corolla...

Video has tended to be like this... I bought a 52 Inch Panasonic LCD Projection about 2 years ago... despite the fact that I've always been more into audio than video... but because of the falling prices on tvs, I found that a large screen was in my budget, so I bought it... Now had it remained at the much higher prices of just a few years before then I would have gladly settled with a 27inch tv...

I think Video is mostly about price (yes VHS is to some extent an exception, but I'll deal with that further down).

What calendar are you reading? The first Blu-ray players came out less than 2 years ago. And the format war is only now getting sorted out, so the big market push for Blu-ray hasn't even begun yet. But, even so, it's still much further along than any of the downloading plans out there.

Ok.... I'll stand corrected.... I used a few to mean 2 as I pretty much just rounded up the figure (cuz I was sure Blu Ray had been around for more than a year but was feeling too lazy to go research an exact figure...)

Of course the key factor is the consumer, but without studio support, the consumers are a nonfactor.

As for Blu-ray/HD-DVD being luxury products, what's your criteria? HD-DVD players are readily available for under $200, and Blu-ray players are already below $300. When the DVD players began outselling VCRs, DVD players still cost more than $200. Were DVD players still "luxury products" when they outsold VHS?

Of course, consumers like lower prices, but keep in mind that Blu-ray/HD-DVD price declines have already occurred at far sharper rates than when the DVD format was introduced. But, for Blu-ray to supplant the DVD format does not require that Blu-ray players to price match what DVD players cost.

If consumers perceive greater value in Blu-ray's higher resolution and enhanced features, then they will pay for it. After all, the DVD format took over from VHS when VCRs were selling for less than $100 or about half of what DVD players cost. The DVD format took over because consumers saw the extra value that the DVD format represented, and willingly paid for it.

Now as for VHS vs DVD... as much as you despise the music comparisons... it is much like Cassettes and CDs.... in both cases you were dealing with more than just an inferior picture/sound.... video/sound quality were not the only factors in making optical discs (digital) dominant over analog sources....

Digital offered significant new convenience in both audio and video:

1) Track/Scene selection -> Not having to hit fast forward/rewind to find a scene/song was a major breakthrough on the convenience front.

2) The product was more durable (analog sources tended to degrade over time) - Try watching a VHS over and over, versus watching a DVD over and over....

3) Portability/storage - it's much easier to carry a case full of cds in the car than a stack of cassettes... and a stack of dvds still takes up far less space than a stack of VHS tapes...

While HD-DVD/BLU-RAY/SACD/DVD-A Versus DVD/CD are just a case of digital versus better digital.... so it is a very different war from the earlier analog versus digital one....