Blu-ray caught in shift to streaming

A stream of box-office hits and classics, including the Indiana Jones films and Titanic, are queued up for release on Blu-ray Disc as part of a concerted campaign to cement the high-definition format's place in your living room.

Despite Blu-ray video and sound superiority to DVD, the format is growing at a slower pace than expected. Meanwhile, the momentum of streaming video threatens to snuff out some consumers' love of movies on physical discs as it lessens the likelihood that "somebody goes and buys a Blu-ray movie or rents it," says Phil Swann, president of TVPredictions.com.

Studios see their window closing -- not real quick, but closing slowly, Swann says. … They want to "get these classic movies out there and sell them now, because we aren't exactly sure what the environment is going to look like a year from now." A number of landmark films are hitting Blu-ray for the first time in this fall, among them are classics such as Lawrence of Arabia.

Bluray is 6 years old and more than one-third of U.S. homes have Blu-ray Disc players--including a Sony PlayStation 3 game system--where at this point in DVD's lifespan, about half of U.S. households had a DVD player. However the consulting firm expects Blu-ray movie disc sales will surpass DVDs by 2015.

Blu-ray caught in shift to streaming - USATODAY.com

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Originally Posted by Smokey

A stream of box-office hits and classics, including the Indiana Jones films and Titanic, are queued up for release on Blu-ray Disc as part of a concerted campaign to cement the high-definition format's place in your living room.

Despite Blu-ray video and sound superiority to DVD, the format is growing at a slower pace than expected. Meanwhile, the momentum of streaming video threatens to snuff out some consumers' love of movies on physical discs as it lessens the likelihood that "somebody goes and buys a Blu-ray movie or rents it," says Phil Swann, president of TVPredictions.com.

Studios see their window closing -- not real quick, but closing slowly, Swann says. … They want to "get these classic movies out there and sell them now, because we aren't exactly sure what the environment is going to look like a year from now." A number of landmark films are hitting Blu-ray for the first time in this fall, among them are classics such as Lawrence of Arabia.

Bluray is 6 years old and more than one-third of U.S. homes have Blu-ray Disc players--including a Sony PlayStation 3 game system--where at this point in DVD's lifespan, about half of U.S. households had a DVD player. However the consulting firm expects Blu-ray movie disc sales will surpass DVDs by 2015.

Blu-ray caught in shift to streaming - USATODAY.com

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This article is totally misleading. In the first half of this year, Bluray sales were up 13.3% over the first half of 2011. 2011 first half sales were up over 2010 first half.

Yes streaming subscription are growing quickly, but it still represents a fraction of entertainment dollars when compared to disc.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

Yes streaming subscription are growing quickly, but it still represents a fraction of entertainment dollars when compared to disc.

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And that is estimated to reverse in 2016.

"Video-streaming revenue, which accounted for about $2.8 billion in 2011, will reach $6.7 billion by 2016, PwC estimates. That will surpass disc sales, which are expected to decline from about $9 billion in 2011 to about $5.5 billion in 2016."

As with high rez music, the video public clearly prefers convenience especially since choice is in no way limited as is the case with the music industry.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

As with high rez music, the video public clearly prefers convenience especially since choice is in no way limited as is the case with the music industry.

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But unlike music, video is not as mobile :)

Probably most of disc sale decline can be contributed to decline in DVD sales as title availability in that catagory is becoming less selective, and for being inferior to bluray in term of picture quality.

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Originally Posted by Smokey

But unlike music, video is not as mobile :)

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I'm glad your being facetious as devices like iPhones and iPads are exceptionally portable. On my phone, I have videos of my wedding, a parachute jump and an ice skating programs with my wife.

Currently on her iPad is the third season of the TV series Emergency! and a funny movie called A Mightly Wind. She frequently streams Netflix movies on it, too.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

And that is estimated to reverse in 2016.

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With sales rising year over year, that estimate is based on what? And quite frankly, who in the hell is endowned to predict what is going to happen four years from now?

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"Video-streaming revenue, which accounted for about $2.8 billion in 2011, will reach $6.7 billion by 2016, PwC estimates. That will surpass disc sales, which are expected to decline from about $9 billion in 2011 to about $5.5 billion in 2016."

As with high rez music, the video public clearly prefers convenience especially since choice is in no way limited as is the case with the music industry.

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Sorry, but the model for the music industry is quite different than that of the film industry. Mixing the two together shows a profound ignorance of how each work in the market. While DVD sales are falling, Bluray sales are trending upwards at a faster rate than streaming subscriptions are. And with the caps that both telecoms and the cable industry are putting on, who is to say that streaming subscriptions won't trend downwards as caps are lowered as a result of too much streaming traffic.

Predictions had HD DVD beating Bluray back in the day because of the price of the players. We see how that turned out don't we.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

I'm glad your being facetious as devices like iPhones and iPads are exceptionally portable. On my phone, I have videos of my wedding, a parachute jump and an ice skating programs with my wife.

Currently on her iPad is the third season of the TV series Emergency! and a funny movie called A Mightly Wind. She frequently streams Netflix movies on it, too.

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Your experience is not transferable to the masses. The television as a viewing choice still by far is the most preferred viewing device, and that trend leans in that way more year over year.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

While DVD sales are falling, Bluray sales are trending upwards at a faster rate than streaming subscriptions are. And with the caps that both telecoms and the cable industry are putting on, who is to say that streaming subscriptions won't trend downwards as caps are lowered as a result of too much streaming traffic.

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Best of luck to your counter to industry trends estimate.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

Your experience is not transferable to the masses. The television as a viewing choice still by far is the most preferred viewing device, and that trend leans in that way more year over year.

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Sorry that you completely missed the point. Let's review it, shall we?

But unlike music, video is not as mobile

Are you really of the opinion that video is NOT mobile? If so, then apparently you are completely unaware of the concept of smart phones and pad based computers that are network enabled. Wake up!

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

Are you really of the opinion that video is NOT mobile? If so, then apparently you are completely unaware of the concept of smart phones and pad based computers that are network enabled. Wake up!

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I thought the video trend was going for bigger screen, not smaller :nonod:

If you had an option to play a movie on a mobile device or on a big screen TV with full sound (DTS-HD :D) for enjoyment and not for passing time, which one would you opt for?

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Originally Posted by Smokey

If you had an option to play a movie on a mobile device or on a big screen TV with full sound (DTS-HD :D) for enjoyment and not for passing time, which one would you opt for?

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My answer is exactly the same as it would be for music: Depending upon location, either!

I enjoy listening to 7 foot tall stats driven by 600 watt tube amps. I also enjoy wearing Shure IEMs when I'm out of the house. I enjoy watching the 65" DLP driven by 1.5 kW of power. I also enjoy watching movies on an iPad when I'm out of the house.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

Best of luck to your counter to industry trends estimate.

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Best of luck relying on a estimate rather than actual figures reported by NDP. Based on actual figures, streaming subscriptions would have to jump 400% year over year to catch the sales of disc. It is not growing that fast now, has not in the past, and there is no sign it will in the future.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

Sorry that you completely missed the point. Let's review it, shall we?

But unlike music, video is not as mobile

Are you really of the opinion that video is NOT mobile? If so, then apparently you are completely unaware of the concept of smart phones and pad based computers that are network enabled. Wake up!

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Sorry that you have me mixed up with Smokey. I never said video was not portable. I said that folks still watch video on the televisions FAR more than their phones or Ipads. That is a undisputable fact that even Neilson's surveys confirm.

Get your $hit straight Ralph.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

Best of luck relying on a estimate rather than actual figures reported by NDP. Based on actual figures, streaming subscriptions would have to jump 400% year over year to catch the sales of disc. It is not growing that fast now, has not in the past, and there is no sign it will in the future.

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Understand that my observation has nothing to do with my preference for higher quality, but the objective realization that for at least the past four years - physical media has consistently dropped in sales while online/streaming has increased. Every single year.

Do you really think that something will reverse that trend? Given the priorities of the current generation, I sure don't. Nor do the experts.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

Sorry that you have me mixed up with Smokey. I never said video was not portable.

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Except of course for the comment that triggered my response:

"The television as a viewing choice still by far is the most preferred viewing device, and that trend leans in that way more year over year."

If that were the case, then iTunes movie rentals would never have gotten off the ground instead of increasing in volume year over year. How many generic households have their computers connected to their TVs to view the 50,000 movies downloaded every day? Folks view those movies on mobile Apple enabled devices.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

If that were the case, then iTunes movie rentals would never have gotten off the ground instead of increasing in volume year over year. How many generic households have their computers connected to their TVs to view the 50,000 movies downloaded every day? Folks view those movies on mobile Apple enabled devices.

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But not everybody have mobile Apple enabled devices :)

I have my PC connected to TV and watch alot of streaming, and seeing alot of other folks doing the same thing that have PC or internet enable devices such as TV and bluray players.

Unless we see some numbers/link that breaks down percentage of streamings/downloads for internet enable devices (including PC), and percentage for mobile devices such as smartphones, then it is just an assumption what we are doing is the industry trend.

I like so many others have been late to the table on Blu-Ray in part because of its cost. Add in the fact that many people just spent money not too no long ago for their High-Def DVD players it is easy to see why sales have lagged.

However as is my way I will be taking my first plunge into Blu-Ray via the used gear market. This weekend I found an older Sony Blu-Ray player stacked among the regular DVD players at a local Goodwill for $20. It is in good shape and appears to play well. I have to get a remote for it to access all of its features but that should not be a problem. I will be curious to compare it to my Oppo players once I get it up and running.

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Originally Posted by Smokey

But not everybody have mobile Apple enabled devices

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That does limit the audience to about 150,000,000 for all those iTunes based downloaded movies. :)

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

Understand that my observation has nothing to do with my preference for higher quality, but the objective realization that for at least the past four years - physical media has consistently dropped in sales while online/streaming has increased. Every single year.

Do you really think that something will reverse that trend? Given the priorities of the current generation, I sure don't. Nor do the experts.

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Here is the problem with your analysis. There no meat, it is all air. DVD sales have certainly been dropping, It is a mature format whose sales will soon be eclipsed by Bluray. They no longer market DVD as a premiere way of watching movies on disc. Sales of movies on Bluray has risen year after year since inception, and there is no indication that it is slowing...ZERO.

When you lump everything together in one great big pot, it makes it impossible to see the picture clearly. Streaming subscription while growing are still just a very small fraction of the entertainment dollar. I think we need to wait to see where the telecoms and cable company's are going with their caps on data. If they lift them, the game is afoot for streaming. If the caps get more widespread or get lowered, then there is no chance in hell for streaming to catch up anytime soon.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

That does limit the audience to about 150,000,000 for all those iTunes based downloaded movies. :)

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iTunes movie rentals are a tiny slice of the itunes store. According to my friend who works at Apple, it is not doing very well sales or rental wise. Business has been flat as a pancake for about two years. Music sales, different story altogether.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

Except of course for the comment that triggered my response:

"The television as a viewing choice still by far is the most preferred viewing device, and that trend leans in that way more year over year."

If that were the case, then iTunes movie rentals would never have gotten off the ground instead of increasing in volume year over year. How many generic households have their computers connected to their TVs to view the 50,000 movies downloaded every day? Folks view those movies on mobile Apple enabled devices.

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Ralph, you ever heard of Apple TV? That is why movie rentals were started in the first place - to sell Apple products. And you are wrong. Apple movie rentals and digital sales have not been increasing at all. According to my NDP report, it is flat. Overall streaming is increasing,, but that is thanks to Netflix and Youtube, not Apple.

When you say downloads, you have to be specific. Youtube and Netflix make up most of those downloads. Apple is almost out of the picture in comparison.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

Here is the problem with your analysis. There no meat, it is all air. DVD sales have certainly been dropping, It is a mature format whose sales will soon be eclipsed by Bluray. They no longer market DVD as a premiere way of watching movies on disc. Sales of movies on Bluray has risen year after year since inception, and there is no indication that it is slowing...ZERO.

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You focus on DVD sales. The report data speaks of combined physical media totals. Sure, BR is finally replacing DVD. And losing ground to downloads/streaming.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

When you say downloads, you have to be specific

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Everything except physical media. A decreasing number of folks are buying shiny disks.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

Understand that my observation has nothing to do with my preference for higher quality, but the objective realization that for at least the past four years - physical media has consistently dropped in sales while online/streaming has increased. Every single year.

Do you really think that something will reverse that trend? Given the priorities of the current generation, I sure don't. Nor do the experts.

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Ralph, the experts predicted that HD DVD would beat Bluray. We know how that turned out. A prediction is no precursor for reality. It is just a prediction.

Not all physical media has consistently dropped in sales. Bluray does not fit into that statement. DVD and CD most certainly do, and both are mature formats that are being overtaken by other sources.

You need to stop lumping everything together - it paints a very inaccurate picture of the market overall. The devil is in the individual ingredients, not in the finished soup.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

Not all physical media has consistently dropped in sales.

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A 20% increase in a vastly smaller number doesn't offset a 20% decrease of a far larger number. Physical sales have been falling off for years.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

You need to stop lumping everything together - it paints a very inaccurate picture of the market overall.

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Feel free to get mired in the details and miss the forest.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

You focus on DVD sales. The report data speaks of combined physical media totals. Sure, BR is finally replacing DVD. And losing ground to downloads/streaming.

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Combined data does not always tell the story does it. While overall disc sales are dropping, when look at more careful show that DVD and CD are dragging down overall disc sales. The only physical media that is doing well is Bluray. If you look even closer, you will see that Bluray on premiere titles have now become consistently half of all disc sales. That shows the weakness of DVD, and the strength of Bluray. In the first quarter of this year, Bluray saw a 13.3% increase, while DVD saw a 10.6% drop.

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Everything except physical media. A decreasing number of folks are buying shiny disks.

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A decreasing number of folks are buying fewer CD and DVD. I know many people like myself that do not buy either. I support high rez downloads and Bluray disc.

There is a huge reason the studios are rushing to get high value catalog titles out there. They sell EXTREMELY well, and if Bluray sales are falling - then they would not bother as it costs a lot of money to remaster these titles.. These catalog titles will not be offered on DVD, they have already been released on that format.

There is not a single survey conducted that shows that streaming is replacing Bluray, or even losing ground to it. Folks who want quality, don't look to streaming. Those who don't care about quality, go to streaming. Two different kinds of folks, with two different choices.

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

A 20% increase in a vastly smaller number doesn't offset a 20% decrease of a far larger number. Physical sales have been falling off for years.

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DVD and CD sales have been falling for years. Sorry, but NDP does not present data in clumps. It parses out each individual format, and then gives the total. It a more accurate picture of the industry as a whole.

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Feel free to get mired in the details and miss the forest.

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The forest consists of individual trees just like physical disc consists of individual formats. The forest is not just one big tree. If a lot of trees in the forest are dying, but there are some that are not - all of the forest is not dying.

Who's mired the one that ignores the detail(and therefore paints in inaccurate picture, or the person who the capacity to recognize it exists and get a better picture of what the industry is actually doing. Only simple minded people look at clumps of data and come to a conclusion.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

Combined data does not always tell the story does it.

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When the question addressed by the story is physical or digital, the answer is yes.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

While overall disc sales are dropping, when look at more careful show that DVD and CD are dragging down overall disc sales

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Who's talking about CDs? This article is about video. Music lost the battle a while ago.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

That shows the weakness of DVD, and the strength of Bluray. In the first quarter of this year, Bluray saw a 13.3% increase, while DVD saw a 10.6% drop.

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Now translate those percents to units to provide the complete story of falling sales. The total market for both video physical formats is down. Last year. This year. Most likely, next year, too.

edit: a found a sales graph showing relative changes.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

There is not a single survey conducted that shows that streaming is replacing Bluray, or even losing ground to it.

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That's not what the article is saying. It simply observes the obvious: like music before it, it won't be many years before more people consume video via streaming vs. physical media. That doesn't say BR or DVDs totally go away. They become less significant players.

I'm afraid those who want quality are a minority. That is one parallel between the movie and music industry I bet will hold true. The economy may have some impact but I think if people felt strongly about quality that Blu ray would be much further along than it is.

I personally hope both CD and BDP continue to be sold as I have not embraced streaming. Even when putting music on a mp3 player for travel it was music from my own collection for the most part.

I have to admit I am pretty surprised myself how fast streaming is growing. Sir T, when you had this argument before with former posters who no longer show up here I was pretty sure you were going to be right, but since then streaming is like an outbreak. I have no numbers, I'm just going by what I see people around me doing. We also have to consider streaming is almost available on any device, receivers, video disc players, TV's and other devices especially for streaming. I personally haven't seen any recent info on capping, in fact, some cable companies are boasting faster speeds than ever offered before.

My experience with streaming so far, I let my kids try some free content from Dish over the internet connection, which I admit may not be the best, but the movie consistently paused so the stream could catch up, that would drive me crazy and to download completely to watch removes the convenience. I won't order PPV at $6.99 a title, that's 1/2 or 1/3 the price of the disc, I'd just asoon buy the disc.

One other thing, a friend of mine is a big streamer of video and it seems his big draw is the endless selection and being able to buy Ala Carte, watch what ever he wants when he wants. This would probably trump quality pretty big since none of us have the space or money to own every single movie and TV series.

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Originally Posted by Mr Peabody

I'm afraid those who want quality are a minority. That is one parallel between the movie and music industry I bet will hold true.

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Have you ever been to a public environment - airport, restaurant, bar, barber shop, auto/tire dealer, hotel, etc. where the flat video monitor was NOT distorting the native 4:3 picture into a 16:9 perspective? That drives me nuts. I don't like the stretched world of fat faced people, but apparently others DON'T EVEN NOTICE.

Even when folks have HDTV capability with its increased resolution and wider aspect ratio, some folks like my wife's parents choose to watch the low-def version. They just don't care that much.

Personally, I am not a videophile - I owned Laserdisc but the reason I bought LD was for the wide screen format which was difficult to get on VHS. LD prices were so high that I would rent and record them onto tape.

The problem with youth is that they figure anything on the net is free and with torrents they can download pretty much any TV series/movie/music for free. Yes Blu-Ray is better than DVD or what you get from a torrent but most people don't care.

There is too much competition from alternate forms of entertainment - and people make less money.

If a kid has X dollars he spends it on a video game and a iPhone related stuff and will download the music and movies for free. It's much harder to download video games.

LPs interestingly should be the music industries' dream. You can copy it to a computer but it requires a lot more work - and time. You have to play the whole album in real time. The owner actually gets some cover art and a physicality to the artist they are buying which makes it more of a keepsake. CD was practically worthless on that front but way better than disposable download in bits inside a computer. It's wrong of course but people just don't see stealing unless it is a physical thing being taken - they don't see digital bits floating in cyberspace as stealing. Asia certainly doesn't - they have laws but no one enforces them. I can go to China tomorrow and buy any Blu-Ray in perfect Blu-Ray copy of any motion picture (including some not in theaters yet - promo-copies) and pay $1 US. In those markets there are tons and tons of tourists buying them up in droves. You can't do that on LP and you can't do that on LD. By allowing machines to be sold to the public that can copy Blu-Ray to Blu-Ray and CD to CD and DVD to DVD you are basically saying - here steal everything.

The manufacturers gave people the record button and then wonder why people actually use the button. :confused:

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Originally Posted by Mr Peabody

My experience with streaming so far, I let my kids try some free content from Dish over the internet connection, which I admit may not be the best, but the movie consistently paused so the stream could catch up, that would drive me crazy and to download completely to watch removes the convenience.

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IMO that is one main reason preventing video from going completely mobile (unlike music). Unless you have wifi hot spot at home or at remote locations, you will be limited at what you can watch on mobile devices.

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Originally Posted by E-STAT

Have you ever been to a public environment - airport, restaurant, bar, barber shop, auto/tire dealer, hotel, etc. where the flat video monitor was NOT distorting the native 4:3 picture into a 16:9 perspective? That drives me nuts. I don't like the stretched world of fat faced people, but apparently others DON'T EVEN NOTICE.

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So you don't like watching distorted the native 4:3 picture into a 16:9 TV, but don't mind watching movies and TV shows on a tiny hand held devices? I rather watch the former :)

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Originally Posted by RGA

Asia certainly doesn't - they have laws but no one enforces them. I can go to China tomorrow and buy any Blu-Ray in perfect Blu-Ray copy of any motion picture (including some not in theaters yet - promo-copies) and pay $1 US.

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China seem to use different rules concerning copy right laws for music and video. For example, if you go to China's main search engine...

°Ù¶Èһϣ¬Äã¾ÍÖªµÀ

....you will see a link for tons of MP3s. I can not play any of MP3s due to my location (outside China), but I bet it is free to listen to them in China. I never seen such a link in western search engines.

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Originally Posted by Smokey

So you don't like watching distorted the native 4:3 picture into a 16:9 TV, but don't mind watching movies and TV shows on a tiny hand held devices? I rather watch the former :)

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I watched the Apollo 11 moon landing on a 19" B&W Zenith. I can handle a 10" iPad just fine when the image is not distorted.

BTW, WiFi is available in lots of places, including Starbucks, McDonalds and on Delta flights while aloft. :)

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Originally Posted by E-Stat

BTW, WiFi is available in lots of places, including Starbucks, McDonalds and on Delta flights while aloft. :)

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And I hope you're not spending hour and half at Starbuck or McDonalds watching movies :D

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Originally Posted by Smokey

And I hope you're not spending hour and half at Starbuck or McDonalds watching movies

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While having a meal, just enough time to watch a 20 minute TV episode you missed or an oldie you would like to watch again on Hulu or Netflix . :)

LOL, the football head effect, it drives me crazy.

Smokey, video is mobile because it's downloaded and stored on the mobile device, streaming is some what available for mobile devices as Estat mentioned but I suspect most people load up what they want to view before traveling.

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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible

I think we need to wait to see where the telecoms and cable company's are going with their caps on data. If they lift them, the game is afoot for streaming. If the caps get more widespread or get lowered, then there is no chance in hell for streaming to catch up anytime soon.

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I believe this will be extremely impactful.

It's kind of hard to debate hard numbers but I think RGA brings up a thoughtful point when he looks at behaviors/preferences because it opens up a values paradigm.

And, let's be honest...Hollywood has been putting out such complete drek that I suspect a lot of folks don't see the utility in plopping down $25 or $30 for great quality on something they barely want to watch once.

Check this out, the speed;
Google Fiber: Google announced Sunday that it will be building high-speed Internet out for at least 180 of the 220 qualifying neighborhoods in Kansas City as part of its effort to roll out 1-gigabit connections.

The company declared the effort to be a complete success. “This number has blown us away — and it’s not even the final tally,” wrote Google Access General Manager Kevin Lo in a company blog post.

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Originally Posted by bobsticks

I believe this will be extremely impactful.

It's kind of hard to debate hard numbers but I think RGA brings up a thoughtful point when he looks at behaviors/preferences because it opens up a values paradigm.

And, let's be honest...Hollywood has been putting out such complete drek that I suspect a lot of folks don't see the utility in plopping down $25 or $30 for great quality on something they barely want to watch once.

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Now that I'm getting 25 Gbps I find streaming works very well. All my streaming is from Netfix presently, though I would like a provider with a bigger selection. Other than Netfix, I rent discs from Zip.ca whose price is less than C$3 per disc.

{edit}I meant to mention that my download limit is pretty good -- 300 GB per month.{/edit}

We have 400-600 DVDs around here, mostly bought by my wife deeply discounted. Thing is, most of them have been watched only once -- and a few never watched. I simply will not plop down $25-30 for for something we'll watch once or twice, consequently I buy only a few discs such as operas and a very few, favorite rewatchers such as LoTR and 5th Element.

Right now, when I spend $20-30 on a BR disk, I get, 1 in 3D, 1 2D, 1 DVD and 1 digital. I can watch the 3D with family, the 2D when company comes over. My daughter can watch the DVD in her room, and we download the digital to our laptop and phones. We end up watching many of them over and over. Sometimes several times a day (anyone with a 3 year old at home should be able to relate) Can downloads do the same for me? Can I watch them in any/every room of my house 20, 30, or 50 times?