CES, it's that time again. Thoughts? care? predictions?

[Mr Peabody]

Except, for you Pix, he's band from predictions. It's my thread.

Wet your appetite: http://www.techradar.com/news/audio/hi-fi-radio

http://ces2010.techradar.com/

As the title says, any thoughts? Do we care any more?

Do these shows put pressure on manufacturers to come out with new products even though there may not be much new?

[Ajani]

I still care... I enjoy reading about new gear debuted at CES... It may put pressure on manufacturers, but I think there needs to be some amount of pressure to encourage innovation and updating of product ranges...

As always I'm interested to see if any of my favorite brands have out new gear....

What price will the new AKG top of line headphones be??? Will they be direct competition for the the Sennheiser HD800???

Will Monitor Audio launch a new Gold Series???

Will Revel update the Performa/Concerta Line???

Right now I'm holding off on any major Hi-Fi purchases until after CES...

[Mr Peabody]

I agree, It's almost like what the kids feel toward Xmas morning. I'm always anxious to see if anything new hit, or what's around the corner.

[Ajani]

Magnepan will be launching the MG 1.7 at CES:

Magnepan MG 1.7 to be debuted at CES

[Mr Peabody]

Yeah, I saw that on Manlystanley's post about whether he should have waited. Apparently, he just snagged a good deal on a pair of 1.6's.

[Woochifer]

The big theme for this year's CES will be the rollout of 3D HDTV products.

http://www.techwatch.co.uk/2009/12/2...ar-of-the-ces/

Now that the 3D Blu-ray spec has come out, you'll see a massive movement in that direction at CES. Directv and Sky TV have already announced that they will begin broadcasting a dedicated 3D HDTV channel in 2010, so the ball has begun rolling. The intriguing aspect will be the implementation side by TV manufacturers, because even with a standard 3D HD signal, different TVs will take different approaches to displaying 3D images.

With more movies now going 3D and audiences growing more comfortable with 3D viewing, there will be at least some demand for 3D for home use. Whether or not this increases sales or gains significant market share remains to be seen. But, at this year's CES at least, 3D will probably be the dominant theme. Makes sense because HDTV has gone mainstream and prices have plunged into commodity territory. Manufacturers need a new high margin technology that will drive growth for the next decade, and they are betting on 3D.

Like it or not, the audio side is more of an afterthought at CES. It's the iPod that drives the market, and you'll probably see more integration products. But, home audio components are more of a niche. They'll have a minimal presence at the main CES show, while the high end manufacturers stage their own T.H.E. Show in parallel to CES.

[Mr Peabody]

I haven't been keeping up with the 3D, let's say a person was interested, what would they have to buy new to watch 3D? My kids have a couple DVD's that came with 3D glasses and the movie is 3D. I'm assuming this new 3D is something that surpasses that?

[Mr Peabody]

Speaking of 2 channel here's a couple new pieces going to the show: http://www.enjoythemusic.com/news/

[Ajani]

Nice to see that Musical Fidelity will be launching an M3 Integrated... I was wondering if they had totally abandoned the more affordable Hi-Fi segment, considered that their cheapest Integrated is currently the $3K M6i...

[RGA]

I have my pass and will be flying down on the 6th. Also, for many more of the audio relaated aspects The Show is held at the Flamingo which is close to CES - walking distance.

These are the companies who show at The Show. http://theshowlasvegas.com/2010/exhibitors_full.php

[Mr Peabody]

RGA, if you love us at all you'll bring us the full report. Lucky dog

[thekid]

I think everything there is 20 years too early for me.......

[Feanor]

The big theme for this year's CES will be the rollout of 3D HDTV products.

http://www.techwatch.co.uk/2009/12/2...ar-of-the-ces/

....

Wooch, can you give us a two-paragraph primer on 3D TV?

I suspect that in theaters pairs of polarized images are project on the screen and the glasses permit one eye to see one image, and the other the other. Presumably a new TV technology would be necessary to display polarized images?

Old 3D used red and green image hues; presumably this could be used on standard TVs (if anybody wanted it).

[jrhymeammo]

I think everything there is 20 years too early for me.......

5+ years for me, but looks like we'll be scoring some great gear down the road.
Oh yeah!!

[Woochifer]

Wooch, can you give us a two-paragraph primer on 3D TV?

I suspect that in theaters pairs of polarized images are project on the screen and the glasses permit one eye to see one image, and the other the other. Presumably a new TV technology would be necessary to display polarized images?

Old 3D used red and green image hues; presumably this could be used on standard TVs (if anybody wanted it).

It's the same principle in that you need special glasses to view the 3D images, but the technology is far more advanced than the simple red/blue glasses or polarized lenses used in years past.

My understanding is that the newer 3D technology uses synchronized image shifting done at a high frame rate. That's why the newer 3D movies in theaters require digital projectors. These newer 3D techniques, including the upcoming home versions, use shutter lenses that are timed in sync with the images on the screen. The advantage to this technique is supposedly more realistic 3D imagery that can allows your head to move around without diminishing the 3D effect.

The 3D HDTV standard allows for a common output format, but my understanding is that the different TV manufacturers will use different approaches to displaying those images. And each TV will require its own set of 3D glasses. For example, Panasonic and Samsung's 3D HDTVs likely will not allow you to switch 3D glasses -- the glasses supplied and sold with those sets will only work with their own.

[Mr Peabody]

Seems like the 3D will have a slow adoption and probably only a nitch feature.

[Woochifer]

Seems like the 3D will have a slow adoption and probably only a nitch feature.

No different than any other consumer electronics format, but I think it will have some mainstream uptake simply because that's the direction that the movies are going in. Check out the release of Avatar if you need the proof -- about 3,500 theaters showing the movie in North America and over 2,000 of them in 3D. This pattern is not all that different than with other recent studio releases. Several 3D releases are already planned for this year.

On top of that, you now have a standard 3D HDTV format to play back all of these new 3D releases. Blu-ray 3D releases are planned for 2010 and Directv has already announced a 3D HD feed. Yes, it will be slow adoption, but I don't think it will be a small niche. Rather, it will increasingly become a standard feature in the coming years. 3D won't supplant standard HD, but rather add another viewing option. No different than the transition from stereo to matrixed surround to discrete surround on the audio side.

[Mr Peabody]

You don't think proprietary glasses and having to buy a new TV and possibly new player would be a bit of a henderence?

[thekid]

S&V Magazine actually mentioned 3D as a tech trend for 2009. 3-4 manufacturers are well past the R&D phase. Panasonic demoed a 3D set at last year's CES. It was a 103 inch screen in 1080p which required you to wear LED shutter glasses which controlled infared signals allowing you to watch alternating left/right frame images. My guess is that you see other demos at this year's show and there will be a push from marketing to convince everyone that 3D is the next "must have" item in electronics.

A big obstacle at this time is that I do not think there is an industry wide 3D video standard so this thing could be another Blu-Ray/ HD format war. Economic times might lead to a faster development on that front as I think this is still strictly a technology designed solely for the purpose of selling more gear and all manufacturers need to sell more sets. (I guess you could argue that was the point of all video improvements in the last 10 years)

[Feanor]

....

The 3D HDTV standard allows for a common output format, but my understanding is that the different TV manufacturers will use different approaches to displaying those images. And each TV will require its own set of 3D glasses. For example, Panasonic and Samsung's 3D HDTVs likely will not allow you to switch 3D glasses -- the glasses supplied and sold with those sets will only work with their own.

Oh great: another round of technology wars.

Thanks, Wooch.

[Woochifer]

You don't think proprietary glasses and having to buy a new TV and possibly new player would be a bit of a henderence?

The proprietary glasses perhaps (but keep in mind that they will come with the TV), but buying a new TV and/or new player won't be anymore a hindrance than the new equipment requirements with HDTV, 5.1 audio, digital video/audio, or any of the other advances over the past decade plus. I know that the PS3 will add 3D capability with a simple software upgrade. No idea whether adding 3D will be that simple with other BD players.

[Woochifer]

S&V Magazine actually mentioned 3D as a tech trend for 2009. 3-4 manufacturers are well past the R&D phase. Panasonic demoed a 3D set at last year's CES. It was a 103 inch screen in 1080p which required you to wear LED shutter glasses which controlled infared signals allowing you to watch alternating left/right frame images. My guess is that you see other demos at this year's show and there will be a push from marketing to convince everyone that 3D is the next "must have" item in electronics.

I don't think that much convincing will be needed. Just look at the numbers coming in for Avatar. More than 2,000 of the 3,500 theaters showing Avatar present it in 3D, and about 90% of the advance ticket sales were for 3D screenings. The movie going public has already moved towards 3D, and more 3D releases are coming out this year.

The difference between this year and last year is that you now have a 3D HD standard that has already been adopted by Blu-ray manufacturers and getting adopted across the industry. Last year, everything was still in the prototype/proof-of-concept stage with no unified standards. This year, you have production models getting prepped for introduction.

A big obstacle at this time is that I do not think there is an industry wide 3D video standard so this thing could be another Blu-Ray/ HD format war.

That's old info. The industry has already coalesced around the MVC extension to the MPEG-4 standard for 3D content. Blu-ray has adopted it, it will be part of the upcoming HDMI 1.4 spec, and I believe that's what Directv will be using on its 3D HD feed. There's no format war on the horizon.

Economic times might lead to a faster development on that front as I think this is still strictly a technology designed solely for the purpose of selling more gear and all manufacturers need to sell more sets. (I guess you could argue that was the point of all video improvements in the last 10 years)

Selling more gear is the purpose of EVERY new consumer electronics technology. But, more specifically it's about coming out with technologies that will support higher margins. That's because once a new technology gets introduced, the clock is ticking and it's only a matter of time until that technology becomes commodified.

Just look at products like the VCR, CD player, DVD player. Remember how expensive those products were when they first hit stores? Or even flat screen TVs? A decade ago, a plasma TV cost upwards of $10,000. Now, you can find something that outperforms that set for under $600.

Consumer electronics manufacturers cannot survive by just letting their product lines slide into commodity price points. They have to keep improving the product in order to maintain the existing price points, and they have to add something entirely new in order to justify higher price points.

They are now betting that 3D is the technology that will prop up the price points. It's no different than when TV manufacturers got behind HDTV a decade ago, or when they began offering larger screen sizes, or went with flat panels. All of those technologies once supported very high margins, but have now become low margin high volume commodities.

[thekid]

Don't really disagree with any of your points. I am not sure that the ticket sales of Avatar translate into widespread demand for 3D. Several of the movie reviews I saw mentioned the movie target seemed to be the "gamer generation". Not sure if that translates into the same group with enough disposable income to buy the new 3D sets but then again they lay out $50 a pop for games on a regular basis so who knows.

I agree with you on the need for manufacturers to upgrade to sell product. I am just not sure 3D is the technology that is going to do it. IMO the upgrades in the last 10-20 years has caused even the most casual viewer to move because of the improvements in PQ. Does 3D technology improve your viewing experience or just provide a different type of a viewing experience? I think that is the question that the market may soon be answering.

[Mr Peabody]

If nothing else, 3D might give the theater business a shot in the arm.

[Woochifer]

Don't really disagree with any of your points. I am not sure that the ticket sales of Avatar translate into widespread demand for 3D. Several of the movie reviews I saw mentioned the movie target seemed to be the "gamer generation". Not sure if that translates into the same group with enough disposable income to buy the new 3D sets but then again they lay out $50 a pop for games on a regular basis so who knows.

Presumptions based on movie reviews simply don't reflect reality. The so-called "gamer generation" alone cannot produce the types of box office numbers that you're seeing with Avatar. Maybe they will create a big opening weekend, but Avatar has sustained its box office returns in the second and third weekends, where you typically see more mainstream audiences.

Most movies lose upwards of about 50% of their opening weekend audience in the second weekend -- Avatar gained during its second weekend, and the third weekend totals are only 10% off from the opening weekend, which is almost unheard of for a wide release. So far, the 3D screenings have accounted for more than 75% of the ticket sales. I think this certainly indicates very widespread demand for 3D, and is consistent with where the market trends have been going.

Over the last couple of years, most of the big 3D releases have been animated or family movies. Certainly not the stuff of the "gamer generation."

I agree with you on the need for manufacturers to upgrade to sell product. I am just not sure 3D is the technology that is going to do it. IMO the upgrades in the last 10-20 years has caused even the most casual viewer to move because of the improvements in PQ. Does 3D technology improve your viewing experience or just provide a different type of a viewing experience? I think that is the question that the market may soon be answering.

3D right now is the technology that has the most development activity behind it. Like it or not, picture quality alone is not what drove the TV market. It was also moving to larger screens, going to a flat form factor, etc. Combination of utility, wow factor, and actual performance improvements. Those are all trends that overlapped one another. 3D would add another layer to the mix, and it seems that the new 3D technologies add a lot more to the viewing experience than the old red/blue glasses did. The box office returns for 3D movies are a strong indicator that the audience is there for these more advanced 3D approaches.