CES, it's that time again. Thoughts? care? predictions?

[thekid]

S&V Magazine actually mentioned 3D as a tech trend for 2009. 3-4 manufacturers are well past the R&D phase. Panasonic demoed a 3D set at last year's CES. It was a 103 inch screen in 1080p which required you to wear LED shutter glasses which controlled infared signals allowing you to watch alternating left/right frame images. My guess is that you see other demos at this year's show and there will be a push from marketing to convince everyone that 3D is the next "must have" item in electronics.

A big obstacle at this time is that I do not think there is an industry wide 3D video standard so this thing could be another Blu-Ray/ HD format war. Economic times might lead to a faster development on that front as I think this is still strictly a technology designed solely for the purpose of selling more gear and all manufacturers need to sell more sets. (I guess you could argue that was the point of all video improvements in the last 10 years)

[Woochifer]

S&V Magazine actually mentioned 3D as a tech trend for 2009. 3-4 manufacturers are well past the R&D phase. Panasonic demoed a 3D set at last year's CES. It was a 103 inch screen in 1080p which required you to wear LED shutter glasses which controlled infared signals allowing you to watch alternating left/right frame images. My guess is that you see other demos at this year's show and there will be a push from marketing to convince everyone that 3D is the next "must have" item in electronics.

I don't think that much convincing will be needed. Just look at the numbers coming in for Avatar. More than 2,000 of the 3,500 theaters showing Avatar present it in 3D, and about 90% of the advance ticket sales were for 3D screenings. The movie going public has already moved towards 3D, and more 3D releases are coming out this year.

The difference between this year and last year is that you now have a 3D HD standard that has already been adopted by Blu-ray manufacturers and getting adopted across the industry. Last year, everything was still in the prototype/proof-of-concept stage with no unified standards. This year, you have production models getting prepped for introduction.

A big obstacle at this time is that I do not think there is an industry wide 3D video standard so this thing could be another Blu-Ray/ HD format war.

That's old info. The industry has already coalesced around the MVC extension to the MPEG-4 standard for 3D content. Blu-ray has adopted it, it will be part of the upcoming HDMI 1.4 spec, and I believe that's what Directv will be using on its 3D HD feed. There's no format war on the horizon.

Economic times might lead to a faster development on that front as I think this is still strictly a technology designed solely for the purpose of selling more gear and all manufacturers need to sell more sets. (I guess you could argue that was the point of all video improvements in the last 10 years)

Selling more gear is the purpose of EVERY new consumer electronics technology. But, more specifically it's about coming out with technologies that will support higher margins. That's because once a new technology gets introduced, the clock is ticking and it's only a matter of time until that technology becomes commodified.

Just look at products like the VCR, CD player, DVD player. Remember how expensive those products were when they first hit stores? Or even flat screen TVs? A decade ago, a plasma TV cost upwards of $10,000. Now, you can find something that outperforms that set for under $600.

Consumer electronics manufacturers cannot survive by just letting their product lines slide into commodity price points. They have to keep improving the product in order to maintain the existing price points, and they have to add something entirely new in order to justify higher price points.

They are now betting that 3D is the technology that will prop up the price points. It's no different than when TV manufacturers got behind HDTV a decade ago, or when they began offering larger screen sizes, or went with flat panels. All of those technologies once supported very high margins, but have now become low margin high volume commodities.