http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/interne...eut/index.html

Well, what do you guys think?

In a rare upbeat statement, the IFPI said its initiative is building a vibrant, albeit small, market for selling music downloads that appears to be stealing momentum from peer-to-peer networks such as Kazaa and WinMX where all varieties of music are available for free.

"We believe that the music industry's Internet strategy is now turning the corner, and that in 2004 there will be, for the first time, a substantial migration of consumers from unauthorized free services to legitimate alternatives," said Jay Berman, IFPI's CEO.

I think that's a little over-optimistic. There might be some migration, but I have my doubts that it will be "substantial" People who are going to use Kazaa and WinMX are going to keep using those. People who start buying music downloads are the people who will probably stop buying as many cd's. So, the market will shift from Brick n' Mortar to the internet, but I don't think the file-swapping is going to go away.

For the few dozen songs I download per year, it's not going to be worth it for me to sign up for one of those pay services anyways.. The mega-file swappers will just get smarter and learn to cover their tracks better. The music industry is failing because of poor product and high prices. Trading of music has been taking place for years, long before Napster. And it's not going to just magically stop.

-jar