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I think that would be his MOMS trailer house:1:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
Bay, director of transformers was so pissed over the fact that Paramount went HDDVD (keeping transformers off of blu) that he threatened to
not make a transformers II.
Personally, I thought they were doing the Blu-ray folks a favor... I couldn't stand the first one, and definitely don't want to see a *second* piece of cr*p from a whiner that does not know when to shut his mouth. He was also complaining about the quality of the DVD release (that was receiving critical acclaim for its transfer quality) when sales were setting records -- talk about violating the old rule that says "never bite the hand that feeds you"... Honestly, I think his movies don't belong on *either* format as he is not a very good director, IMO and he has shown himself to be a sales killer for his company by working against its Marketing department... but that's just me.
---Dave
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drseid
I guess I look at things purely from the consumer viewpoint when I *am* the consumer. That said, I am a firm believer that consumer buying behavior influences (and sometimes even controls) the other aspects of the supply chain including manufacturer behavior. I have been at this game a long time and I have seen it play out that way time and again. Manufacturers may tell you otherwise, but they are only fooling themselves if they believe otherwise, IMO (if they really disbelieve it at all). Prices will need to be relatively low to attract Joe6pack to the new formats, and I do feel HD DVD has followed exactly the right strategy here. The other manufacturers will have to come aboard... This is not just based on facts on the ground, but rather business supply chain and economics strategy (and yes, reality). I try to be 10 steps ahead of the game when looking at things... not just based on the present facts necessarily (although taking them into account), but rather the probabilities of events happening in the future.
When I read this, I can think of some instances were this is not the case at all. When DVD was introduced, alot of analyst thought it would fail because they thought the public (worldwide) was perfectly comfortable with VHS. Then here comes the CE marketing machine telling us that the DVD was a better movie experience, disc had more features, the viewing experience would exceed the Laserdisc, and DVD would be easier to store. It didn't take long for that mantra to sink in, because in five short years after it debut, it overtook VHS in software sales first, then player sales a very short time later. Also consider the fact that in 1997, CE's profits on VHS players were sliding dramatically. Three years later in 2000, not one of the majors was making a dime on players thanks to cheap chinese imports. Now here we are some seven years later, and the CE companies are in the same position, they are not making any money from DVD players, and they are moving on to another more profitable format. If the CE's have abandon both VHS and basically the DVD for lack of profits, what makes you think that HD DVD strategy is necessarily an effective one? Once again I will advance this, what is good for the consumer(low prices) is not exactly good for the CE(which make the players) or for the format (which can die a premature death from lack of support). This is a balance, and if not carefully followed, everyone loses.
Quote:
As to the cost (and/or losses) on HD DVD players, I guess we will have to agree to disagree here. I may be an HD DVD supporter (although I support BR too), but I am not basing my viewpoint from ignoring the facts the way you may think. I have spoken at conferences on the subject of cost and ways to reduce it effectively and I know it can be done (and do it regularly myself almost every day). I don't need to see 4 different companies tell me what they believe the cost of product X is, as I know I could beat any of their price estimates by sheer negotiating superiority any day I chose... Now can Toshiba? Well, I don't know... but neither do they. I am obviously not a fan of "cost estimators" (I am not referring to you Sir T, by the way) who try and figure out what a given company pays for things, as frequently they are wrong. Like I said, I respect your opinion and I am not saying you or the other websites are wrong here... It is my "day job" to never believe this price estimation is always valid, and if I did I would be out of a job, so obviously I have to take an opposing viewpoint. :-)
While I cannot question your negotiation experience, I can say on this issue you do not have your ducks lined up well at all. You are completely dismissing facts based on your experience, however does this experience apply to consumer electronics? I would fair to say not, since Toshiba themselves have come out saying they are losing money on HD DVD. This is just a snippet describing the Walmart sale.
A person familiar with the matter said that Wal-Mart bought about 55,000 HD-A2s from Toshiba for just under $200 apiece before the early November sale, and that it lost about $100 on each sale.
Robert Zohn from HTF is a HD DVD retailer. On HTF he confirmed that the cost of a A2 to him was $299 per player. He does a pretty high volume of sales of the A2.
This was also in the translated article
Analysts say selling the players to Wal-Mart at such a low cost also likely represented a loss for Toshiba,
So according to the facts, Toshiba sold the players to Walmart at a $100 loss, and Walmart in turn sold them for a $100 loss. Where is the health in this format if everyone is selling at a loss. Those disc giveaways are also costing the HD DVD PG are great deal of money, so much money that even the Toshiba rep had this to say in the article
Toshiba says it didn't sell any players below cost based purely on manufacturing expenses, but once marketing and promotional expenses are factored in, the HD DVD business is operating at a loss. The company expects it to turn profitable in its next fiscal year, beginning April 2008.
How do you expect to turn a profit when you product is continually heavily discounted. This looks like a pretty positive spin on a pretty bad situation. The fact that Walmart purchased 55,000, but only according to NDP sold 30,000 during the sale, instead of the 90,000 that the HD DVD PG mentions, shows that there is a tremedous amount of spin, and misinformation being circulated. You do not have to do this when you market is healthy, and growing. The fact that there hasn't been a real uptick in software sells since the sales means that the players have not reached new buyers, but previous owners looking for second, and perhaps third players. Not exactly the hands the sale was trying to reach.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1195...googlenews_wsj
Back to my point about other manufacturers not wanting to get in, well that new Onkyo player has been pulled from the european market before its launch here. This is a snippet translated from italian to english
The first Onkyo HD DVD player has been available in Italy for a few days now, but it can already be considered as a collector's item, because there are very few units in existence, and Onkyo has stopped its production.
Here is their reason why;
In view of the new marketing policy being applied by Toshiba, consisting of sinking the price of its own players, Onkyo has difficulty in positioning its own player (the Europe list price is 899 euros) and has therefore decided to stop production.
I can provide you with the entire translation if you desire, but just for bevity sake, I lifted the most important parts of the news. Now keep in mind, the players was to be priced at $899 dollars in NA. So once again, aside from the venturer(which not even Walmart is going to carry any time soon) Toshiba is once again alone in producing players. One has got to wonder if the price slashing has hurt the format, or helped it. My guess is it is more hurt than help.
Quote:
With respect to dual-format players, I again will have to respectfully disagree here. The Samsung rep is telling you what *is*... I am talking about future efficiencies based on an educated guess of *what will be.* Sure, I may be wrong, but I find it unlikely... More players will enter the dual-format field in time and it will bring new efficiencies to all manufacturers. What the Samsung rep told you is not wrong, but it is only based on the present and is not thinking of the future possibilities as I am. Call it speculation if you will, but again, I know this game well and I am quite confident I am right here. This has nothing to do with my preference for either format, or what I hope to happen... but rather simple business supply chain economics. I don't have to be an insider to know general supply chain cost reduction behavior that applies to any industry or company. As for Warner, they gave up Total HD for a completely different reason than the use of dual-format players... Total HD failed IMO because it was asking consumers to pay for a format they did not need (as it had both BR and HD DVD versions on every disc) -- extra money for a superfluous layer. In the case of dual-format players, the consumer *does* need both in order to play all the discs out there (or they need to buy two different players like you and I did, of course). As such, there is a need for the players at the right price. I agree that dual-format players will never be as inexpensive to build as single format players due to the royalty issues you rightly mentioned. They *can* and I believe will be less expensive than buying two different single format players and more practical to boot once cost comes down and functionality goes up.
I do not think you read my post accurately. The Samsung rep said that dual format players prices will not be affordable for a long time, because A) production volume is required to obtain efficiencies, and without that volume, it is impossible to get efficiencies that can actually lower prices. They are not selling very many players at all. From what I understand, LG and Samsung split a less than 5% pie between the two of them when you facture in sales from both formats. Unless that grows significantly in the next 6-12 months, I cannot see this as an alternative at all. Secondly he stated that dual format players are not discounted as there is considerable R&D costs that must be recouped before any discounts on players. Neither LG or Samsung dual format players include the simplified dual head head read system. Each formats requires a different reading head, and that increases costs. Both formats require different chipsets to run HDi and BD-j(the LG does not do HDi), require seperate chipsets for updgrades, and processing. We have already mention the seperate liscensing fees. With Toshiba model of price reductions, and bluray second generation players prices dropping, for the foreseeable future a dual format player will always be more expensive than a single drive player from each format. While I admire your optimistic attitude, facts prove far less than an optimistic view of the pricing situation, and its effect on the health for the format in genral.
Quote:
With reference to your last paragraph above, I agree and say the same thing back... You are looking at this from an industry insider's perspective which can be a great source of information and understanding of how things work that outsiders like myself can't possibly know and frequently can't relate to. The downside can be you are too close to the situation to see external business forces and perspectives at work (not that I am implying that is the case here). In my case, I have an outsider's point of view. I do not have one millionth your expertise on the industry from an inside perspective... I'm just a buyer, plain and simple. What I *do* understand extremely well is general supply chain strategy and business ecomomics. I am applying my skill set here with no inside knowledge to generate likely future outcomes based on my experience as to how companies operate on the aggregate. Which one is the correct view? Probably a bit of both, I would wager. Still, I have enjoyed the discussion and certainly respect your opinion based on your industry experience.
---Dave
To state there is a downside on my perspective based on being too close to the inside would ignore the fact that I purchased my players, and software as a consumer. Just like you, I can observe what is happening in the stores, and what is happening in the consumer market as a whole, as well as understand what is happening from the inside. Having a two prong perspective IMO, can be nothing but an advantage, as it allows one to see what the manufacters are doing, what the consumer are doing with their dollar, and how the manfacturers respond.
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Didnt take much marketing to sell DVD, it was so far advanced over VHS.
Which is why I play a waiting game as far as HD on disc is concerned.
DVD was a revolution, HDDVD (or bluray) IS evolutionary
The "CE marketing machine" is going to have their hands full convincing the great unwashed that the incrementally better picture of HD is worth it, however.
I still think Blu will triumph, but they need to cut some prices and "buy" market share
like toshiba is doing.
Or maybe Sony thinks that the HDDVD group will go bankrupt selling players a 100$
below cost.
In any event it will be a much rougher road for both formats than with DVD.
The economy is tanking, I know people who are spending a 120$ a week for gas
Everybody knows we are heading for one of the worst recessions in history, some are even talking the "D" (depression) word.
Think hddvd prices are "low"?
Things might get so bad that they are selling for 10 bucks apiece, if that
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
When I read this, I can think of some instances were this is not the case at all. When DVD was introduced, alot of analyst thought it would fail because they thought the public (worldwide) was perfectly comfortable with VHS. Then here comes the CE marketing machine telling us that the DVD was a better movie experience, disc had more features, the viewing experience would exceed the Laserdisc, and DVD would be easier to store. It didn't take long for that mantra to sink in, because in five short years after it debut, it overtook VHS in software sales first, then player sales a very short time later. Also consider the fact that in 1997, CE's profits on VHS players were sliding dramatically. Three years later in 2000, not one of the majors was making a dime on players thanks to cheap chinese imports. Now here we are some seven years later, and the CE companies are in the same position, they are not making any money from DVD players, and they are moving on to another more profitable format. If the CE's have abandon both VHS and basically the DVD for lack of profits, what makes you think that HD DVD strategy is necessarily an effective one? Once again I will advance this, what is good for the consumer(low prices) is not exactly good for the CE(which make the players) or for the format (which can die a premature death from lack of support). This is a balance, and if not carefully followed, everyone loses.
While I cannot question your negotiation experience, I can say on this issue you do not have your ducks lined up well at all. You are completely dismissing facts based on your experience, however does this experience apply to consumer electronics? I would fair to say not, since Toshiba themselves have come out saying they are losing money on HD DVD. This is just a snippet describing the Walmart sale.
A person familiar with the matter said that Wal-Mart bought about 55,000 HD-A2s from Toshiba for just under $200 apiece before the early November sale, and that it lost about $100 on each sale.
Robert Zohn from HTF is a HD DVD retailer. On HTF he confirmed that the cost of a A2 to him was $299 per player. He does a pretty high volume of sales of the A2.
This was also in the translated article
Analysts say selling the players to Wal-Mart at such a low cost also likely represented a loss for Toshiba,
So according to the facts, Toshiba sold the players to Walmart at a $100 loss, and Walmart in turn sold them for a $100 loss. Where is the health in this format if everyone is selling at a loss. Those disc giveaways are also costing the HD DVD PG are great deal of money, so much money that even the Toshiba rep had this to say in the article
Toshiba says it didn't sell any players below cost based purely on manufacturing expenses, but once marketing and promotional expenses are factored in, the HD DVD business is operating at a loss. The company expects it to turn profitable in its next fiscal year, beginning April 2008.
How do you expect to turn a profit when you product is continually heavily discounted. This looks like a pretty positive spin on a pretty bad situation. The fact that Walmart purchased 55,000, but only according to NDP sold 30,000 during the sale, instead of the 90,000 that the HD DVD PG mentions, shows that there is a tremedous amount of spin, and misinformation being circulated. You do not have to do this when you market is healthy, and growing. The fact that there hasn't been a real uptick in software sells since the sales means that the players have not reached new buyers, but previous owners looking for second, and perhaps third players. Not exactly the hands the sale was trying to reach.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1195...googlenews_wsj
Back to my point about other manufacturers not wanting to get in, well that new Onkyo player has been pulled from the european market before its launch here. This is a snippet translated from italian to english
The first Onkyo HD DVD player has been available in Italy for a few days now, but it can already be considered as a collector's item, because there are very few units in existence, and Onkyo has stopped its production.
Here is their reason why;
In view of the new marketing policy being applied by Toshiba, consisting of sinking the price of its own players, Onkyo has difficulty in positioning its own player (the Europe list price is 899 euros) and has therefore decided to stop production.
I can provide you with the entire translation if you desire, but just for bevity sake, I lifted the most important parts of the news. Now keep in mind, the players was to be priced at $899 dollars in NA. So once again, aside from the venturer(which not even Walmart is going to carry any time soon) Toshiba is once again alone in producing players. One has got to wonder if the price slashing has hurt the format, or helped it. My guess is it is more hurt than help.
I do not think you read my post accurately. The Samsung rep said that dual format players prices will not be affordable for a long time, because A) production volume is required to obtain efficiencies, and without that volume, it is impossible to get efficiencies that can actually lower prices. They are not selling very many players at all. From what I understand, LG and Samsung split a less than 5% pie between the two of them when you facture in sales from both formats. Unless that grows significantly in the next 6-12 months, I cannot see this as an alternative at all. Secondly he stated that dual format players are not discounted as there is considerable R&D costs that must be recouped before any discounts on players. Neither LG or Samsung dual format players include the simplified dual head head read system. Each formats requires a different reading head, and that increases costs. Both formats require different chipsets to run HDi and BD-j(the LG does not do HDi), require seperate chipsets for updgrades, and processing. We have already mention the seperate liscensing fees. With Toshiba model of price reductions, and bluray second generation players prices dropping, for the foreseeable future a dual format player will always be more expensive than a single drive player from each format. While I admire your optimistic attitude, facts prove far less than an optimistic view of the pricing situation, and its effect on the health for the format in genral.
To state there is a downside on my perspective based on being too close to the inside would ignore the fact that I purchased my players, and software as a consumer. Just like you, I can observe what is happening in the stores, and what is happening in the consumer market as a whole, as well as understand what is happening from the inside. Having a two prong perspective IMO, can be nothing but an advantage, as it allows one to see what the manufacters are doing, what the consumer are doing with their dollar, and how the manfacturers respond.
On the manufacturer support issue we will just have to see how it plays out. I am confident I have called this correctly, but there is no way to prove it until if/when it happens.
As for the Wal-mart deal, there is no way they did not sell all of those 55M players based on my micro-level experience at the Wal-mart I went to to get mine. 90M+ overall sounded about right to me including the non-Wal-mart sales... In my own case, I arrived well before the 8:00 timeframe (about 7 am) and they had a reservation list with a limit of one to a customer. I just made the waiting list, and many, many people were turned away 3 minutes after me. Again, this was with a limit of one per customer. The customers buying had the *appearance* at least of mainstream American buyers... I may have been the most well-off of all of them, and I don't claim to be Bill Gates by any means. I remember leaving that day feeling very good about Toshiba's strategy working at attracting Joe6pack, because 90+% of the buyers at *my* store (located in a relatively affluent area) were indeed Joe6pack buyers (the exact people Toshiba/HD has to win over, as does BR). Of course you are right in your statement that many others buying some of those 55M available that day including myself were indeed current HD DVD owners that bought second+ players at that price... I certainly would have bought more if I could, but Wal-mart wasn't having any of it. :-( What I did *not* see was a lot of movie buying (as my Wal-mart made us pickup the players in the back of the store where they rung them up right there). I thought that a mistake by *Wal-mart* as the point of them taking a loss (if they did indeed) on the players should have been to gain movie sales. I have heard that other Wal-marts acted differently.
With respect to my negotiation experience, it actually *does* apply to consumer electronics. :-) I have been doing it sucessfully for quite a while, but it is only one of the areas I negotiate pricing on professionally.
As for Toshiba losing money on every HD-A3... I never claimed otherwise, I just said I don't believe they are losing $200 on every sale (even the $100 loss estimate to Wal-mart also does not represent "facts" but rather speculation based on one unconfirmed source). I think Sony is losing money on every PS3 sold as well. That said, I would not venture a guess as to how much (as many have done). Just as I said Toshiba could have some sharp negotiators on its side, so could Sony. Neither estimate floating around is probably correct.
As for the Venturer, it is selling for $199 (Canadian) at Wal-mart Canada and other Canadian retailers. Some folks have bought them and opened them up. It is a "remodled" HD-A3. If Venturer can sell it for roughly $200 and make a profit, then Toshiba can't be too far behind, IMO.
As for the Samsung rep's statements, I stand by my comments. He is saying what is, but his statements about not finding efficiencies are way too premature. The efficiencies will be there, plain and simple. Again, there is no way for me to prove this right now, only to say "wait and see."
As to your inside experience versus outside, I never said that you personally *did* have the disadvantages I referred to. They were more generalized statements that could apply to anyone (as were the outsider statements)... No offense was intended.
---Dave
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Pix, that's what I like about you, your positive upbeat narratives.
I need a plan;
1. Turn utility room into food warehouse
2. Stock pile ammo
3. Stock building material for boarding windows etc.
4. Buy bigger meaner dog or two.
5. Get generator and supply of gasoline.
6. Buy safe, empty bank account. "hmmmm, if it's going to be a D maybe I should empty everyone's bank account while I'm at it" he things to himself in a moment of erationality.
Well this is a start :)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Peabody
Pix, that's what I like about you, your positive upbeat narratives.
I need a plan;
1. Turn utility room into food warehouse
2. Stock pile ammo
3. Stock building material for boarding windows etc.
4. Buy bigger meaner dog or two.
5. Get generator and supply of gasoline.
6. Buy safe, empty bank account. "hmmmm, if it's going to be a D maybe I should empty everyone's bank account while I'm at it" he things to himself in a moment of erationality.
Well this is a start :)
YES IT IS, AND A DARN GOOD PLAN
And while you're "stockpilling" ammo get some GUNS to shoot the ammo too, BTW.
Rich in texas got pissed at me for calling him "rich on paper" but I meant no offense,
rich is one of those 401k rich kids who, upon drawing out his money from his 401k will find out that it might buy a loaf of bread, if hes lucky.
If he has a million in his account as of last OCTOBER, in dollars, that "million" is now worth
740,000 DOLLARS. Thats a 260 grand drop in a MONTH.
I like to come to this site to talk about audio, learn something every once in awhile,
forget that the world is literally falling apart, but sometimes thats hard to do.
If the economy gets really bad we will have dvd for decades or longer as both new formats
will die, which is why this "format" war is such a bad idea, if one becomes established
before the bottom drops out it might just surrive, MIGHT.
Not to mention that new HD formats on disc are appearing all over the planet, all you need is a blue laser and a disc to play
Make sure your generator can handle a tube amp, BTW:1:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drseid
On the manufacturer support issue we will just have to see how it plays out. I am confident I have called this correctly, but there is no way to prove it until if/when it happens.
We'll see. I cannot see who you are correct on this one when the evidence is out there for everyone to see. Onkyo was the first casualty, Let's see if anyone else throws their hat in the ring. I seriously doubt it though, not with prices like this. There is no money to be made in HD DVD.
Quote:
As for the Wal-mart deal, there is no way they did not sell all of those 55M players based on my micro-level experience at the Wal-mart I went to to get mine. 90M+ overall sounded about right to me including the non-Wal-mart sales... In my own case, I arrived well before the 8:00 timeframe (about 7 am) and they had a reservation list with a limit of one to a customer. I just made the waiting list, and many, many people were turned away 3 minutes after me. Again, this was with a limit of one per customer. The customers buying had the *appearance* at least of mainstream American buyers... I may have been the most well-off of all of them, and I don't claim to be Bill Gates by any means. I remember leaving that day feeling very good about Toshiba's strategy working at attracting Joe6pack, because 90+% of the buyers at *my* store (located in a relatively affluent area) were indeed Joe6pack buyers (the exact people Toshiba/HD has to win over, as does BR).
The sales figures were reported to NDP, who released them the next day. Only 30K units were moved through walmart, and another 10k through Amazon. One interesting thing I noted. The day before the sale, there was about 50 A2 on ebay. After the sale there was close to 400 of them on sale. When you move around the various websites( I am registered at AVS, HTF and the Spot), it looks like alot of previous members bought second units for their bedroom etc. While the sale moved some players, it did not come close the the 90k that was estimated.
Quote:
Of course you are right in your statement that many others buying some of those 55M available that day including myself were indeed current HD DVD owners that bought second+ players at that price... I certainly would have bought more if I could, but Wal-mart wasn't having any of it. :-( What I did *not* see was a lot of movie buying (as my Wal-mart made us pickup the players in the back of the store where they rung them up right there). I thought that a mistake by *Wal-mart* as the point of them taking a loss (if they did indeed) on the players should have been to gain movie sales. I have heard that other Wal-marts acted differently.
I wouldn't count on Walmart as a HD movie sales place, it is fourth in sales, waaaaay behind Amazon, BB, and one more retailer I cannot remember.
Quote:
As for Toshiba losing money on every HD-A3... I never claimed otherwise, I just said I don't believe they are losing $200 on every sale (even the $100 loss estimate to Wal-mart also does not represent "facts" but rather speculation based on one unconfirmed source). I think Sony is losing money on every PS3 sold as well. That said, I would not venture a guess as to how much (as many have done). Just as I said Toshiba could have some sharp negotiators on its side, so could Sony. Neither estimate floating around is probably correct.
Actually the Walmart loss is a fact. The sale price of $199 to Walmart was confirmed(not in this article but in NDP) and that was a loss for Toshiba which is normally selling the A2-3 for $299 to retailers. So while the article list it as speculation, some facts, some research, and a little math bares it out. As far as the PS3, that is a different ballgame altogether. Losses is "gaming" machines(and I use that real loosely with the PS3 because it is really a entertainment center) is normal. The XBOX franchise has never made a dime on players, but plenty on software. That is the way that model works. Sony is banking that non gamers like myself, will eventually buy a game or two(at $60 i might add) while owning this machine. There emphasis is making a profit on software(games and movies), Toshiba does not have the luxury at is makes neither games nor movies.
Quote:
As for the Venturer, it is selling for $199 (Canadian) at Wal-mart Canada and other Canadian retailers. Some folks have bought them and opened them up. It is a "remodled" HD-A3. If Venturer can sell it for roughly $200 and make a profit, then Toshiba can't be too far behind, IMO.
You are missing a big detail. The Venturer uses the Broadcom/Microsoft solution. A single reading head, simplfied parts design, fewer parts, less flash memory for upgrades, and cheaper parts in general. This is confirmed by Kjack on Bluray.com as his company supplies the processing circuits for the player. So overall it is a cheaper player to build than the A2, even though it is based on its design. Toshiba has stated that they are losing money on its whole HD DVD operation. With incentives included, they are practically giving away players just to meet their goal of 1 million players. They believe that the studios cannot ignore that large a base, but Disney and Fox have already stated that no matter how many HD DVD players there are out there, they will not release to any format that does not include extra copy protection and region coding.
Quote:
As for the Samsung rep's statements, I stand by my comments. He is saying what is, but his statements about not finding efficiencies are way too premature. The efficiencies will be there, plain and simple. Again, there is no way for me to prove this right now, only to say "wait and see."
Efficiencies come from mass production. If there is no mass production, then there can be no efficiencies. The players are not selling in big numbers, and therefor not being produced in big numbers. How does one find efficiences if you cannot produce a player in sufficent numbers to realize them? The bottom line is nobody is going to purchase a $1000 player when they can buy both formats players for less than $700. As long as it is cheaper to do it that way, then a $1000 dual format is not going to sell in numbers that realize cost savings. That is simple manufacuturing 101.
Quote:
As to your inside experience versus outside, I never said that you personally *did* have the disadvantages I referred to. They were more generalized statements that could apply to anyone (as were the outsider statements)... No offense was intended.
---Dave
I wasn't offended at all, the perspective just did not seem logical to me.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
We'll see. I cannot see who you are correct on this one when the evidence is out there for everyone to see. Onkyo was the first casualty, Let's see if anyone else throws their hat in the ring. I seriously doubt it though, not with prices like this. There is no money to be made in HD DVD.
The sales figures were reported to NDP, who released them the next day. Only 30K units were moved through walmart, and another 10k through Amazon. One interesting thing I noted. The day before the sale, there was about 50 A2 on ebay. After the sale there was close to 400 of them on sale. When you move around the various websites( I am registered at AVS, HTF and the Spot), it looks like alot of previous members bought second units for their bedroom etc. While the sale moved some players, it did not come close the the 90k that was estimated.
I wouldn't count on Walmart as a HD movie sales place, it is fourth in sales, waaaaay behind Amazon, BB, and one more retailer I cannot remember.
Actually the Walmart loss is a fact. The sale price of $199 to Walmart was confirmed(not in this article but in NDP) and that was a loss for Toshiba which is normally selling the A2-3 for $299 to retailers. So while the article list it as speculation, some facts, some research, and a little math bares it out. As far as the PS3, that is a different ballgame altogether. Losses is "gaming" machines(and I use that real loosely with the PS3 because it is really a entertainment center) is normal. The XBOX franchise has never made a dime on players, but plenty on software. That is the way that model works. Sony is banking that non gamers like myself, will eventually buy a game or two(at $60 i might add) while owning this machine. There emphasis is making a profit on software(games and movies), Toshiba does not have the luxury at is makes neither games nor movies.
You are missing a big detail. The Venturer uses the Broadcom/Microsoft solution. A single reading head, simplfied parts design, fewer parts, less flash memory for upgrades, and cheaper parts in general. This is confirmed by Kjack on Bluray.com as his company supplies the processing circuits for the player. So overall it is a cheaper player to build than the A2, even though it is based on its design. Toshiba has stated that they are losing money on its whole HD DVD operation. With incentives included, they are practically giving away players just to meet their goal of 1 million players. They believe that the studios cannot ignore that large a base, but Disney and Fox have already stated that no matter how many HD DVD players there are out there, they will not release to any format that does not include extra copy protection and region coding.
Efficiencies come from mass production. If there is no mass production, then there can be no efficiencies. The players are not selling in big numbers, and therefor not being produced in big numbers. How does one find efficiences if you cannot produce a player in sufficent numbers to realize them? The bottom line is nobody is going to purchase a $1000 player when they can buy both formats players for less than $700. As long as it is cheaper to do it that way, then a $1000 dual format is not going to sell in numbers that realize cost savings. That is simple manufacuturing 101.
I wasn't offended at all, the perspective just did not seem logical to me.
I would not call the amaount of a potential Wal-mart loss a fact, Sir T at all. The $299 cost to retailers number is ludicrous, as that is the *MSRP* of the units. Why would Toshiba sell a unit to any retailer at full MSRP (and what retailer would be foolish enough to buy/pay it)? The person who is the source of that information obviously is not being honest and no retailer should disclose their cost either. Everyone negotiates their best deal, and Wal-mart is very good at it.
With respect to the Venturer... how less expensive is it to manufacture? My guess is not a whole lot. The costs are almost the same in all likelihood, (and keep in mind Toshiba does not have to pay royalties to itself).
The Toshiba statement saying that they are losing money on the HD DVD operation should come as no surprise to anyone and should be expected by all at this stage of the game. Sony is losing plenty too (and dare I say even more than Toshiba). I would not chastise Sony or Toshiba on this, as both sides view the short-term losses as investments with a goal of long-term profitability. This thinking makes sense to me, and I would be doing the same in their respective positions. For one of the camps it *may* not pan out, but you can hardly blame either side for believing that their investment will pay off. If they don't believe in their respective format, then why be in the game at all? I also should point out that Toshiba gains royalties on the HD DVD format with every software sale, so it has plenty to gain by building player penetration just like Sony does through BR royalties (and game royalties).
As to manufaturing efficiencies coming from mass production... I could not agree more. But that is my point... I firmly believe that there *will* be mass production of the units in time. Not now, mind you... in the future. The same has to happen for any new product until sales grow. This is the classic chicken/egg scenario and I remember it well with respect to DVD and HDTV... Look how both those turned out. :-) I agree that no one will buy a $100 player when the two separate formats can be had for $700 (or even $500 by my counting street price-wise), but what about $200-$250 later on? I dare say there will be plenty of takers at that price, and I don't think that price is a fantasy either. It may be a year or two, but that is not that far out all things considered (especially if a stalemate continues indefinitely as I anticipate).
----Dave
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Originally Posted by drseid
I would not call the amaount of a potential Wal-mart loss a fact, Sir T at all. The $299 cost to retailers number is ludicrous, as that is the *MSRP* of the units. Why would Toshiba sell a unit to any retailer at full MSRP (and what retailer would be foolish enough to buy/pay it)? The person who is the source of that information obviously is not being honest and no retailer should disclose their cost either. Everyone negotiates their best deal, and Wal-mart is very good at it.
Dave, you can duck you head in the sand all you please, but there have been mutiple comfirmations of the Walmart deal, losses, and all of the fact(and sometimes conjecture) surrounding this. I think you are misunderstanding what I have said. The COST of making the players is estimated to be around $300. Walmart was selling the A2 for $249 six months ago. Even if they paid $250 per player, a dollar is probably a loss to them in floor space alone. The freebie disc offered with the player cost the HD DVD PG some promotion money on the deal as well. When you add it all up, that is a loss to almost everyone involved. Can't put lipstick on a pig on this one man.
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With respect to the Venturer... how less expensive is it to manufacture? My guess is not a whole lot. The costs are almost the same in all likelihood, (and keep in mind Toshiba does not have to pay royalties to itself).
Nobody knows how much less, but we do know that it is cheaper to manufacturer, has less parts, and lets face it, royalities do not play a huge cost in most players, its the parts and manufacture that do.
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The Toshiba statement saying that they are losing money on the HD DVD operation should come as no surprise to anyone and should be expected by all at this stage of the game. Sony is losing plenty too (and dare I say even more than Toshiba). I would not chastise Sony or Toshiba on this, as both sides view the short-term losses as investments with a goal of long-term profitability. This thinking makes sense to me, and I would be doing the same in their respective positions. For one of the camps it *may* not pan out, but you can hardly blame either side for believing that their investment will pay off. If they don't believe in their respective format, then why be in the game at all? I also should point out that Toshiba gains royalties on the HD DVD format with every software sale, so it has plenty to gain by building player penetration just like Sony does through BR royalties (and game royalties).
You are once again glossing over details. The PS3 has the only distinction of having multiple classification depending on how it is used. The Toshiba stand alones do not. Gaming machines have built in losses to be made up on software sales(and that includes both video and games). A standalone HD DVD player does not have this comfort. If the players cannot make anyone any money over time(and there are no signs at this point they are) then the formats health is in danger. Bluray standalones are making the manufacturers money, the cost they currently sit ensures that. The new PS3's cost less to manufacture than the previous models. They also have less parts in them as well. They are losing far less money on each player than they were.
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As to manufaturing efficiencies coming from mass production... I could not agree more. But that is my point... I firmly believe that there *will* be mass production of the units in time. Not now, mind you... in the future. The same has to happen for any new product until sales grow. This is the classic chicken/egg scenario and I remember it well with respect to DVD and HDTV... Look how both those turned out. :-) I agree that no one will buy a $100 player when the two separate formats can be had for $700 (or even $500 by my counting street price-wise), but what about $200-$250 later on? I dare say there will be plenty of takers at that price, and I don't think that price is a fantasy either. It may be a year or two, but that is not that far out all things considered (especially if a stalemate continues indefinitely as I anticipate)
.----Dave
You seem to think that this is going to go one forever, and this is why you think dual players seem practical. You are not correct here at all. There is one component that you are missing here. The studios count on home media to make them money to fund high profile theatrical movie projects. Last year the studios altogether lost 2.9billion dollars because DVD sales have fallen so dramatically since 2005 and operating costs have risen so dramatically. The studios know the DVD gravy train is over, and they need a new way to make revenue to replace it. This stalemate slows mass adoption to another revenue source. The longer it takes, the more money the studios lose. That is why a dual format player is not going to be of any good in the long run. All of the studios are under pressure here, so it is in the best interest of all of them to unite behind one format so mass adoption can allow them to release catalog titles and increase revenue. Right now releasing catalog titles is a losing proposition, only date and day sales with DVD is having any traction. So what is the point of creating a dual format player in large numbers when you know that Universal is doing VERY poorly selling titles exclusively to one format and they are not really all that happy with the HD DVD PG on the Paramount/Dreamworks deal, and Paramount not doing that much better, and has a out on their clause. Warner is doing better than everyone selling to both sides, but Sony and Disney are not that far behind them. Warner is watching very carefully that their titles are selling 2:1 in bluray favor, and the Paramount deal is over after Christmas 2008. There is no way in hell this stalemate will play out long term, too much is at stake for that to happen. When you look at the whole HD DVD package, there is just not much health in it anymore.
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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Dave, you can duck you head in the sand all you please, but there have been mutiple comfirmations of the Walmart deal, losses, and all of the fact(and sometimes conjecture) surrounding this. I think you are misunderstanding what I have said. The COST of making the players is estimated to be around $300. Walmart was selling the A2 for $249 six months ago. Even if they paid $250 per player, a dollar is probably a loss to them in floor space alone. The freebie disc offered with the player cost the HD DVD PG some promotion money on the deal as well. When you add it all up, that is a loss to almost everyone involved. Can't put lipstick on a pig on this one man.
Nobody knows how much less, but we do know that it is cheaper to manufacturer, has less parts, and lets face it, royalities do not play a huge cost in most players, its the parts and manufacture that do.
You are once again glossing over details. The PS3 has the only distinction of having multiple classification depending on how it is used. The Toshiba stand alones do not. Gaming machines have built in losses to be made up on software sales(and that includes both video and games). A standalone HD DVD player does not have this comfort. If the players cannot make anyone any money over time(and there are no signs at this point they are) then the formats health is in danger. Bluray standalones are making the manufacturers money, the cost they currently sit ensures that. The new PS3's cost less to manufacture than the previous models. They also have less parts in them as well. They are losing far less money on each player than they were.
You seem to think that this is going to go one forever, and this is why you think dual players seem practical. You are not correct here at all. There is one component that you are missing here. The studios count on home media to make them money to fund high profile theatrical movie projects. Last year the studios altogether lost 2.9billion dollars because DVD sales have fallen so dramatically since 2005 and operating costs have risen so dramatically. The studios know the DVD gravy train is over, and they need a new way to make revenue to replace it. This stalemate slows mass adoption to another revenue source. The longer it takes, the more money the studios lose. That is why a dual format player is not going to be of any good in the long run. All of the studios are under pressure here, so it is in the best interest of all of them to unite behind one format so mass adoption can allow them to release catalog titles and increase revenue. Right now releasing catalog titles is a losing proposition, only date and day sales with DVD is having any traction. So what is the point of creating a dual format player in large numbers when you know that Universal is doing VERY poorly selling titles exclusively to one format and they are not really all that happy with the HD DVD PG on the Paramount/Dreamworks deal, and Paramount not doing that much better, and has a out on their clause. Warner is doing better than everyone selling to both sides, but Sony and Disney are not that far behind them. Warner is watching very carefully that their titles are selling 2:1 in bluray favor, and the Paramount deal is over after Christmas 2008. There is no way in hell this stalemate will play out long term, too much is at stake for that to happen. When you look at the whole HD DVD package, there is just not much health in it anymore.
I should point out that I am in no way claiming the Wal-mart deal was a moneymaker. I think that would be a foolish statement indeed. No lipstick or pigs here. ;-) That said, I think that it was the kickoff of a major strategy shift for HD DVD (and Wal-mart to a certain degree) that I personally agree with. You can certainly argue otherwise, and you may prove to be right in the end... I am just calling things as I see them, plain and simple.
As for players making anyone money over time... This I firmly believe can, will, and *is* happening (in the case of Venturer). What things look like today are in my opinion not a reflection of what will be over time (and I am not talking years here). Efficiencies go up with sales volume, and Toshiba has proven that low cost drives sales (no surprise here). As sales increase (and they will), costs will continue to come down. As costs come down, the opportunity for manufacturing profits goes up. With that opportunity of profit will come additional manufacturers ready to feed the demand. This is extremely common. That said, Toshiba has certainly driven costs down much faster than other manufacturers would like them to... but "ces't la vie." :-) Toshiba did it because it was in their best interest, and because they can.
Your point about the studio losses and pressure associated with those losses is well taken. The truth is you name the primary trump card that could topple my theory. I would be lying if I said there was no chance of this occuring (although it *may* play out differently than you think with respect to Warner come February 2008 as I have predicted rightly or wrongly in my previous posts). Studio support is definitely a wildcard in general here for both sides (and of course the future demand/need for dual-format players). I guess we will just have to see how this one plays out one way or the other.
---Dave
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Originally Posted by drseid
I should point out that I am in no way claiming the Wal-mart deal was a moneymaker. I think that would be a foolish statement indeed. No lipstick or pigs here. ;-) That said, I think that it was the kickoff of a major strategy shift for HD DVD (and Wal-mart to a certain degree) that I personally agree with. You can certainly argue otherwise, and you may prove to be right in the end... I am just calling things as I see them, plain and simple.
I am not sure how you can call this a major strategy shift. Toshiba has been cutting prices since the HD DVD format began. Cutting prices more, having firesales, and under cutting their CE partners is something they have been doing since before HD DVD even hit the streets(Onkyo once again). The Venturer player is being sold in Walmart stores in Canada, selected ones here, and online. However the thunder of being the lowest price HD DVD player has been stolen by Toshiba. You have a rebadged A3 with some parts differences, and the A3 priced within $50 of each others. Do you really think the consumer is going to pick a no name brand over Toshiba?
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As for players making anyone money over time... This I firmly believe can, will, and *is* happening (in the case of Venturer). What things look like today are in my opinion not a reflection of what will be over time (and I am not talking years here). Efficiencies go up with sales volume, and Toshiba has proven that low cost drives sales (no surprise here). As sales increase (and they will), costs will continue to come down. As costs come down, the opportunity for manufacturing profits goes up. With that opportunity of profit will come additional manufacturers ready to feed the demand. This is extremely common. That said, Toshiba has certainly driven costs down much faster than other manufacturers would like them to... but "ces't la vie." :-) Toshiba did it because it was in their best interest, and because they can.
Time is not on Toshiba's side here. The big word in Hollywood right now is the slowdown of DVD releases and sales. It was these sales that help make some of the big budget movies possible, and helps run studio operations. Sales are down approximately 20% from last year, and that is pretty dramatic. Studio had operational losses of $2.9 billion dollars last year, and without quick settlement of this war losses will continue. It is in the best interested of the studios that this is settled ASAP. So Toshiba does not have time on its side, and nothing sales wise is even remotely in their favor at this point. Warner has said it will take a look at fourth quarter sales and evaluate its position. So far every titles released to both formats by Warner has shown a 2:1 edge in favor of bluray, and with 300 it is closer to 4:1 now. Warner has sold over 350k copies of this movie on bluray, and I do not think they will leave that on the table a keep 100K in its place.
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Your point about the studio losses and pressure associated with those losses is well taken. The truth is you name the primary trump card that could topple my theory. I would be lying if I said there was no chance of this occuring (although it *may* play out differently than you think with respect to Warner come February 2008 as I have predicted rightly or wrongly in my previous posts). Studio support is definitely a wildcard in general here for both sides (and of course the future demand/need for dual-format players). I guess we will just have to see how this one plays out one way or the other.
---Dave
Bluray has 66% of the market in disc sales here in America. It owns 73% of the market in Europe. It owns 94% of the asian market. When a studio sees this, do you really think it will support a format that has 34% here, 27% of the market in Europe, and 6% of the market in asia? That is counter to plain logic if not good business sense. HD DVD has always been the cheaper format. However there are only 450k HD DVD standalones out there vs the more expensive 300K for bluray. 150K more for a format that cost half the price. Then you have the big bomb of 2 million PS3 in American homes, and 5.5 million all over the world. So you have a total worldwide of 750k of HD DVD players and drives, 5.5 million bluray players, and we have not even counted the standalone drives out there. If you owned a studio, which would you choose given these figures? I think both Warner, Paramount, and Universal are taking a very good look at this.
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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
I am not sure how you can call this a major strategy shift. Toshiba has been cutting prices since the HD DVD format began. Cutting prices more, having firesales, and under cutting their CE partners is something they have been doing since before HD DVD even hit the streets(Onkyo once again). The Venturer player is being sold in Walmart stores in Canada, selected ones here, and online. However the thunder of being the lowest price HD DVD player has been stolen by Toshiba. You have a rebadged A3 with some parts differences, and the A3 priced within $50 of each others. Do you really think the consumer is going to pick a no name brand over Toshiba?
Time is not on Toshiba's side here. The big word in Hollywood right now is the slowdown of DVD releases and sales. It was these sales that help make some of the big budget movies possible, and helps run studio operations. Sales are down approximately 20% from last year, and that is pretty dramatic. Studio had operational losses of $2.9 billion dollars last year, and without quick settlement of this war losses will continue. It is in the best interested of the studios that this is settled ASAP. So Toshiba does not have time on its side, and nothing sales wise is even remotely in their favor at this point. Warner has said it will take a look at fourth quarter sales and evaluate its position. So far every titles released to both formats by Warner has shown a 2:1 edge in favor of bluray, and with 300 it is closer to 4:1 now. Warner has sold over 350k copies of this movie on bluray, and I do not think they will leave that on the table a keep 100K in its place.
Bluray has 66% of the market in disc sales here in America. It owns 73% of the market in Europe. It owns 94% of the asian market. When a studio sees this, do you really think it will support a format that has 34% here, 27% of the market in Europe, and 6% of the market in asia? That is counter to plain logic if not good business sense. HD DVD has always been the cheaper format. However there are only 450k HD DVD standalones out there vs the more expensive 300K for bluray. 150K more for a format that cost half the price. Then you have the big bomb of 2 million PS3 in American homes, and 5.5 million all over the world. So you have a total worldwide of 750k of HD DVD players and drives, 5.5 million bluray players, and we have not even counted the standalone drives out there. If you owned a studio, which would you choose given these figures? I think both Warner, Paramount, and Universal are taking a very good look at this.
I can't speak for the rest of the world, but I firmly believe Warner will switch to HD DVD in the US, as they realize that standalone player trends/sales will drive the format long-term in the US, and HD DVD is in a much better position to expand these sales to the average consumer due to their pricing. Bottom line is the software sales right now are truly irrelevant, IMO. The import is where they *will* go. I think Warner is indeed looking at things, but they will not go the way you think... Again, we will see.
---Dave
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I know everyone is wanting Warner to choose, that way we can continue to speculate how this will play out. Unless there's something I missed, if I was Warner I'd continue selling both formats until something gave. Why choose when they can make money on both at this point? I think Warner going HD-DVD would just prolong the war more while going with BR would probably seal HD-DVD's fate. With support like Disney, Sony, Panasonic and all the other companies in the BDA I can't see BR failing, or at least not hanging in as a nitch product. Not only are we talking movie sales but BR has computer drives and camcorders out. I'm sure there are HD-DVD computer products but I haven't seen any camcorders.
It's just a bad deal things had to work out this way and without a dual disc one format has to die. Dual format machines isn't a resolution because we will basically be in the same place we are now. Retailers and renters are not going to stock both formats in software. The internet could help keep the underdog alive longer though.
I think it is wrong to say software and the sales there of is irrelevant. It's really the movie companies that seem to be pulling the strings. That's how we got saddled with HDCP and HDMI, I cannot tell you how much I hate HDMI and those behind it but I digress.
I'm a bit mystified at how one can believe Toshiba's plan is good. By selling their product as cheap as they can they effectively prevented any other manufacturer from putting out HD-DVD gear, hence Onkyo, and helping HD-DVD penetrate the market. Well, one other thing mystifies me as well, and that's why Samsung would put out a dual format machine when LG isn't exactly having their machines fly off the shelves.
Hell, must now be frozen, so much for global warming, although I'm not as adament as Sir T, I think we almost agree on something :)
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Originally Posted by Mr Peabody
I know everyone is wanting Warner to choose, that way we can continue to speculate how this will play out. Unless there's something I missed, if I was Warner I'd continue selling both formats until something gave. Why choose when they can make money on both at this point? I think Warner going HD-DVD would just prolong the war more while going with BR would probably seal HD-DVD's fate. With support like Disney, Sony, Panasonic and all the other companies in the BDA I can't see BR failing, or at least not hanging in as a nitch product. Not only are we talking movie sales but BR has computer drives and camcorders out. I'm sure there are HD-DVD computer products but I haven't seen any camcorders.
It's just a bad deal things had to work out this way and without a dual disc one format has to die. Dual format machines isn't a resolution because we will basically be in the same place we are now. Retailers and renters are not going to stock both formats in software. The internet could help keep the underdog alive longer though.
I think it is wrong to say software and the sales there of is irrelevant. It's really the movie companies that seem to be pulling the strings. That's how we got saddled with HDCP and HDMI, I cannot tell you how much I hate HDMI and those behind it but I digress.
I'm a bit mystified at how one can believe Toshiba's plan is good. By selling their product as cheap as they can they effectively prevented any other manufacturer from putting out HD-DVD gear, hence Onkyo, and helping HD-DVD penetrate the market. Well, one other thing mystifies me as well, and that's why Samsung would put out a dual format machine when LG isn't exactly having their machines fly off the shelves.
Hell, must now be frozen, so much for global warming, although I'm not as adament as Sir T, I think we almost agree on something :)
I didn't say software sales were irrelevant, I said *current* software sales are irrelevant. The BR mantra of 2:1 just really does not mean much right now as the base is too small and is being driven by factors that may not play out in the future. Standalone player sales are where it is at long-term, as they will drive *long-term* software sales. The reason why Toshiba's strategy is an excellent one IMO is they are driving standalone sales just as planned. They are in essence agreeing with my analysis. That said, agree or disagree, it does not mean anything will come of it. At the end of the day, the consumer will decide.
As for Warner, there are advantages and disadvantages to a number of different decisions they could make next year. I have made my prediction and stand by it, but I have hedged my bet. ;-)
---Dave
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If I was looking to enter a market or eliminate one of two products I was selling, it would seem the money maker would be the 2x opposed to just x. And, the x, lagging behind would be the obvious one to be eliminated. Unless of course, in Paramount's example, some one pays you enough to make it worth your while. Long term maybe sales will swing but 2 to 1 current sales would indicate BR had more supporters.
Dave, I enjoy the exchange of ideas and hang in there because we need the input or views of HD-DVD supporters to sort of keep things balanced or not let us BR people lose touch with reality. We all can only speculate.
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Originally Posted by drseid
I can't speak for the rest of the world, but I firmly believe Warner will switch to HD DVD in the US, as they realize that standalone player trends/sales will drive the format long-term in the US, and HD DVD is in a much better position to expand these sales to the average consumer due to their pricing. Bottom line is the software sales right now are truly irrelevant, IMO. The import is where they *will* go. I think Warner is indeed looking at things, but they will not go the way you think... Again, we will see.
---Dave
Dave, you are a reasonable person, this response is rediculous. You are sounding less and less logical, and more and more fanboyish. This parsing of standalones vs PS3 is a HD DVD fanboy typical arguement. A standalone(as I explained to Groundbeef) is a player that has all its functions internally. That would describe the PS3 perfectly, and what sets it aside from the XBOX360 external HD DVD drive.
Warner is not looking at sales trends of standalones, they do not sell players. Warner is looking at software sales, and they have stated that publicly on at least two occasions I have witnessed. What you are attempting here is to re-write what Warner has already stated. Warner is in the business of selling movies on disc. Warner I am sure is looking at disc sales for both formats(they have stated this). Warner switching to HD DVD only is not going to end the war, it will just prolong it alot longer. The studio I work for has stated they are not going to release to HD DVD because of lack of region coding and BD+. If HD DVD wins(and I highly doubt it) they will just shift to downloads rather than release high def product to another unprotected format. Fox has also stated they will not release to another unsecure format. Sony, its obvious they are not moving over to HD DVD.
Warner is not looking for a continued stalemate, they are looking for an end to this. Going HD DVD exclusive will not get them to that goal.
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Originally Posted by drseid
I didn't say software sales were irrelevant, I said *current* software sales are irrelevant. The BR mantra of 2:1 just really does not mean much right now as the base is too small and is being driven by factors that may not play out in the future. Standalone player sales are where it is at long-term, as they will drive *long-term* software sales. The reason why Toshiba's strategy is an excellent one IMO is they are driving standalone sales just as planned. They are in essence agreeing with my analysis. That said, agree or disagree, it does not mean anything will come of it. At the end of the day, the consumer will decide.
As for Warner, there are advantages and disadvantages to a number of different decisions they could make next year. I have made my prediction and stand by it, but I have hedged my bet. ;-)
---Dave
Your thinking is outdated. Standalones are where it used to be at, but things have changed. Parsing a difference between a traditional standalone player and the PS3 is foolish since every PS3 has a internal bluray drive just like traditional standalones. You are doing a very typical HD DVD fanboy thing by not counting the PS3 as a player. Not only is that foolish, but it is why Toshiba and HD DVD are behind in disc sales to this day.
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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Your thinking is outdated. Standalones are where it used to be at, but things have changed. Parsing a difference between a traditional standalone player and the PS3 is foolish since every PS3 has a internal bluray drive just like traditional standalones. You are doing a very typical HD DVD fanboy thing by not counting the PS3 as a player. Not only is that foolish, but it is why Toshiba and HD DVD are behind in disc sales to this day.
And your incessent cries of "All PS3 should be counted as standalone" is just as silly. Thats like trying to count my car as a "Home Theater" because it has 5 speakers in it. Just because the PS3 CAN play Blu-Ray doesn't make it a dedicated player. It just makes it a GAME CONSOLE that can play BluRay movies.
And as more and more GAMES come out for this GAMING machine, you will find less reliance on the PS3 as a Blu-Ray player.
I'm not sayin' that the PS3 isnt a comptent BluRay player. But for sales figures, for the BR industry to count each PS3 as a "player" is silly. Its just not in the same catagory.
In a similar vein, I wonder how the NPD numbers would look if Wal-Mart reported sales figures. For either camp. Doesn't it seem silly that everyone relies on numbers that exclude the worlds largest retailer?
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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Dave, you are a reasonable person, this response is rediculous. You are sounding less and less logical, and more and more fanboyish. This parsing of standalones vs PS3 is a HD DVD fanboy typical arguement. A standalone(as I explained to Groundbeef) is a player that has all its functions internally. That would describe the PS3 perfectly, and what sets it aside from the XBOX360 external HD DVD drive.
Warner is not looking at sales trends of standalones, they do not sell players. Warner is looking at software sales, and they have stated that publicly on at least two occasions I have witnessed. What you are attempting here is to re-write what Warner has already stated. Warner is in the business of selling movies on disc. Warner I am sure is looking at disc sales for both formats(they have stated this). Warner switching to HD DVD only is not going to end the war, it will just prolong it alot longer. The studio I work for has stated they are not going to release to HD DVD because of lack of region coding and BD+. If HD DVD wins(and I highly doubt it) they will just shift to downloads rather than release high def product to another unprotected format. Fox has also stated they will not release to another unsecure format. Sony, its obvious they are not moving over to HD DVD.
Warner is not looking for a continued stalemate, they are looking for an end to this. Going HD DVD exclusive will not get them to that goal.
I think we are all in trouble if you are the person around here who determines what is and isn't logical.
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Originally Posted by PeruvianSkies
I think we are all in trouble if you are the person around here who determines what is and isn't logical.
And this coming from a person spewing racist comments on this board. Look low life, you have not been around here in a while, why don't you disappear again.
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Originally Posted by Groundbeef
And your incessent cries of "All PS3 should be counted as standalone" is just as silly. Thats like trying to count my car as a "Home Theater" because it has 5 speakers in it. Just because the PS3 CAN play Blu-Ray doesn't make it a dedicated player. It just makes it a GAME CONSOLE that can play BluRay movies.
Once again you are trying to re-write a definition. A stand alone player is a player with all of its functions internal. That means you do not have to purchase a serperate drive to play movies in high def. The XBOX360 does not count because the HD DVD drive must be purchased seperately. The PS3 has all the same functions as a S300 bluray player, but it just does more, and gaming is just another more.
Your example is whack because there are no 5.1 dolby digital or Dts processors for the car that can process movie audio. The PS3 is a dedicated player because everything you need to play a movie is in its chassis.
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And as more and more GAMES come out for this GAMING machine, you will find less reliance on the PS3 as a Blu-Ray player.
Sorry bud, but you can find a "traditional" player for cheaper than a PS3, and they are still flying off the shelves with BR movies in them. And PS3 owners are still buying movies. If you are speaking of the future, that is something you just do not know, and cannot forward in an arguement unless you can predict the future. We know you cannot.
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I'm not sayin' that the PS3 isnt a comptent BluRay player. But for sales figures, for the BR industry to count each PS3 as a "player" is silly. Its just not in the same catagory.
The only thing that would take it out of the catagory is the removal of the bluray drive. Since that is an integral part of the machine, it would not be possible. Just because you do not understand the definition of a standalone, does not validate your point at all.
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In a similar vein, I wonder how the NPD numbers would look if Wal-Mart reported sales figures. For either camp. Doesn't it seem silly that everyone relies on numbers that exclude the worlds largest retailer?
It would not mean very much since Walmart is not the leading seller of HD players or software. That distinction goes to Best Buy, with Amazon second, then Target. All of those three report to NDP. The is a huge difference between being the largest retailer, and the largest seller of HD players and discs.
The PS was a gaming machine. The PS2 was also a gaming machine. The emphasis on either of these two was not on the ability to play DVD's. However the PS3 is being advertised as a "entertainment center" with all of the ability to play BR disc right out of the box, supports DTHD, DD+, Dts, SACD and Dts MA lossless in the future. It is the most advanced Bluray player on the market. It does many things very well, including playing back Bluray disc in its INTERNAL drive. Fortunately the name "entertainment center" is going to start appearing in our AV vocabulary in the future, and folks are just going to have to get used to it.
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I don't have the time or energy to rehash whether the PS3 should be counted as a standalone player or not, but I won't conceed either way. Personally I think that some sort of ratio needs to be factored into the PS3 as it's SOLE use is NOT movies.
Therefore, its not fair to include the PS3 into "standalone" sales. But, I'm not an industry insider, so it probably doesn't matter either way.
Incidently BB has a Sony BluRay player on sale for $399, and this weekend they were throwing in a $100 gift card to boot. Plus the free movies. So, it doesn't appear that BluRay is above buying customers either. It's not entirely clear who is footing the bill for the gift card however. It may be a ploy by BB to get consumers to spend more, and not something that BR is endorsing or underwriting.
Heres the link for the BR player:
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage....4&type=product
Sony has alread indicated that the PS3 will not be getting another price cut. So, it appears that there are now players on the market cheaper than the PS3. And as games are becoming more prevelant, I think that Sony's reliance on the PS3 to forward the BR cause will be somewhat muted, as consumers can simply pick up a BR player for less money.
Remeber the PS3 was to be the cheap alternative to the $1000 BR players that were out but a few short months ago.
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That' was actually a brilliant move on Sony's part, they're just taking the "universal player" one step further. Unfortunately the gaming division should have shared technology with the stand alone division. If Sony's stand alone was as fast and capable as the PS3 with BR playback they would have owned the market. At least until everyone else caught up.
Sir T, under the HDTV forum, read my post, something like Satelite/cable audio issue, to see if you have any ideas.
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Originally Posted by Groundbeef
I don't have the time or energy to rehash whether the PS3 should be counted as a standalone player or not, but I won't conceed either way. Personally I think that some sort of ratio needs to be factored into the PS3 as it's SOLE use is NOT movies.
Therefore, its not fair to include the PS3 into "standalone" sales. But, I'm not an industry insider, so it probably doesn't matter either way.
Incidently BB has a Sony BluRay player on sale for $399, and this weekend they were throwing in a $100 gift card to boot. Plus the free movies. So, it doesn't appear that BluRay is above buying customers either. It's not entirely clear who is footing the bill for the gift card however. It may be a ploy by BB to get consumers to spend more, and not something that BR is endorsing or underwriting.
Heres the link for the BR player:
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage....4&type=product
Sony has alread indicated that the PS3 will not be getting another price cut. So, it appears that there are now players on the market cheaper than the PS3. And as games are becoming more prevelant, I think that Sony's reliance on the PS3 to forward the BR cause will be somewhat muted, as consumers can simply pick up a BR player for less money.
Remeber the PS3 was to be the cheap alternative to the $1000 BR players that were out but a few short months ago.
I have seen the gift card elsewhere.
you dont want to subtract free movies from the total price, how about the giftcard?
You're denial of reality aside, the free movies, coupled with the gift card, get the price of the blu down to under 200 bucks.
SO its not far off in price to the HD player, is more advanced, has better audio with uncompressed PCM, has more support, and is more advanced technologically,
so why again would anyone buy a HD player? To see transformers?:1:
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