Sony claims disc-based media doomed

[Ajani]

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming...-doomed-398594

WTF??? Ummm...why are the BlueRay giants predicting the end of disc-based media?

[kexodusc]

Ummm..dude...the article is talking about video games...not BluRay.

It's doomed...but I'm reminded of an old astronomer's joke - when responding to a professor predicting the inevitable death of Earth due to the Sun going super nova in a billion years a relieved student says "Oh, I thought you said it will happen in a million years..."

disc based media will be doomed...not for a very long time though.

[Ajani]

Ummm..dude...the article is talking about video games...not BluRay.

Yeah, I know... but it still seems strange, since they made sure to push BluRay as the disc media for their games... The PS3 would have been a much cheaper gaming machine without the BluRay drive.... The inclusion of the BluRay drive was hotly debated among gamers since it meant the machine would be so expensive...

It's doomed...but I'm reminded of an old astronomer's joke - when responding to a professor predicting the inevitable death of Earth due to the Sun going super nova in a billion years a relieved student says "Oh, I thought you said it will happen in a million years..."

disc based media will be doomed...not for a very long time though.

All things die eventually, it's just a matter of when....

[kexodusc]

Yeah, I know... but it still seems strange, since they made sure to push BluRay as the disc media for their games... The PS3 would have been a much cheaper gaming machine without the BluRay drive.... The inclusion of the BluRay drive was hotly debated among gamers since it meant the machine would be so expensive...

This is all just mindless fodder for media I think to grab a few headlines. It sounds cool to talk about disc-less media distribution, but that's kinda like talking about electric cars. We have the technology, we just don't have the means to deliver it to market effectively or affordably yet.

Sony didn't really have a choice but to incorporate BluRay into the PS3. Made too much sense for its total strategy. Even on a purely gaming level, some PS3 games are huge files. Downloading is not really a practical way to distribute them yet. This way they've hedged their bets a bit.

I would definitley buy games that way if I could save a few bucks and store them on disc based media in a backup format. Cases and stuff aren't really all that important to me.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Here's how its done for PC based games:

www.steampowered.com. Some game publishers use this vehicle for game delivery through this *online* game store so to speak. I own Half-Life 2 and a couple other titles that I purchased through Steam. The good thing: they keep the games up-to-date transparent to the owner, but a knock against this method is that the download can take an EXTREMELY long time to complete (of course your connection speed is a big factor).

Truth is, I'm happy that this is an option.

[pixelthis]

I used to buy software at places like babages, etc, and still rarely do.
But the first time I DOWNLOADED a 30 MB program I realised that I didnt need to buy software anywhere but the net.
THERE is very little (incl operating systems) that you cannot get on the web.
As for video, I give it two years , three max before it aproaches 40%.
Hard economic times will only increase the process.
In hard times one portal to everything will be atractive

[bobsticks]

Well, before we decry the overall death of hard media let's remember the big three retailers for Joe6Pack. Target, Wal-Mart and Meijers all sell back catalogues and both the studios and sellers turn a handy profit a la Smokey's five dollar bin and other point-of-sale merchandising efforts. These displays are predicated on the "impulse buy" theory just like those displays of Allegra or Zirtek, or candy or trash magazines near the registers. I'm thinking retailers are going to weigh in heavily in favor of keeping some vestige of hard copy library around.

[nightflier]

Well, I certainly didn't expect this line from Sony, but I also think that digital downloads are growing in popularity much faster than people anticipated. Maybe the BR/HD-DVD war was partically to plame, but I think the cost of new releases both BR and standard DVD is the real culprit. Most movies people don't care to own anymore, so renting is the best option, but doing so without disks is the holy grail.

TV watching online is also way up. I suspect this is because it has become less and less convenient/simple to record or time-shift than it was for the past 3-4 years (DVRs are way more expensive, analog tuners are obsolete, and asinine copyright rules make recording a chore). Ultimately people want convenience and that comes from downloading content.

[Smokey]

Well, before we decry the overall death of hard media let's remember the big three retailers for Joe6Pack. Target, Wal-Mart and Meijers all sell back catalogues and both the studios and sellers turn a handy profit a la Smokey's five dollar bin and other point-of-sale merchandising efforts.

Let's not forget BigLots stores which sell DVDs for $3

I agree with you that hardcopy discs probably be with us for while due to movie collectors and those that prefer better picture quality (not to mention extras) over convenience.

Downloading is all right for music and short video files. But when it comes to big movie files with high bandwidth capability, the infrastructure to support it (at least in the US) is lacking.

[Rich-n-Texas]

TV watching online is also way up. I suspect this is because it has become less and less convenient/simple to record or time-shift than it was for the past 3-4 years (DVRs are way more expensive, analog tuners are obsolete, and asinine copyright rules make recording a chore). Ultimately people want convenience and that comes from downloading content.

I don't know for a fact that watching TV online has increased, but to me it's more of a novelty than anything else. People LOVE their TiVo, and love pausing live TV. I know I do, and I know the cable, satellite and telco's are all making it available as standard equipment so I don't see any other method of delivery overtaking that one any time soon. And even a dummy like me has mastered the DVR.

[pixelthis]

I don't know for a fact that watching TV online has increased, but to me it's more of a novelty than anything else. People LOVE their TiVo, and love pausing live TV. I know I do, and I know the cable, satellite and telco's are all making it available as standard equipment so I don't see any other method of delivery overtaking that one any time soon. And even a dummy like me has mastered the DVR.

Just dont push the wrong button and start wwIII or somethin.
You can pause online TV also, BTW.
ITS just like net radio, except with pictures, which you should enjoy

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sorry, but downloads are not growing in popularity like some want to believe. Going from $205 million dollars in revenue in 2006 to $123 million in 2007 is not growth by anyones standard.

When talking about things that effect bluray sales, apples and orange comparisons are useless. When you start to see movies sold through digital sell through, that will effect bluray sales, not downloading free television shows, or a video from youtube. Digital sell through is pretty much non-existant right now, and companies that have attempted to sell movies as digital files have seen either huge losses, or have close down already.

According to NDP the vast majority of video downloads are TV programming, NOT MOVIES. So there is no way that downloads are eating into Bluray sales. Bluray disc sales are booming big time with more disc sales in the first quarter of this year than all of last year combined. Bluray now commands 10% of all disc sales across the board, with some big blockbuster titles doing as much as 20-25% of all disc sales. In January bluray was just 8% of all disc sales on big titles, and 4% overall.

Video games are not movies. This guy is from Sony gaming division, and his claims are not addressing movies on disc specifically.

To make a proclamation without a plan or a timetable is basically the same as serving an air sandwich to a hungry person. It says nothing. I think that anyone who can think into the future can plainly see that disc delivery of things like gaming and music which have far smaller file sizes than a movie, would be better served through the internet EVENTUALLY. Its just practical. Movies on the other hand have far larger file sizes than both gaming and music, so its a different monster from the other two.

There is just no game plan for digital sell through of movies, that is bluray competition. Not free downloads, and not downloading of television programming.

[bobsticks]

Well this is just another TOTALLY UNTRUE post from an INDUSTRY INSIDER. All my friends that download YouTube videos in hidef say that they are great. On my SYSTEM with an ONKYO ht and POLK IN-THE-WALL speakers 1080p hidef programming from YouTube sounds and looks great---like a LASER DISC and much better than the DRACULA BLU-RAY!!

GAMES are great too and it's obvios that you know nothing about the MODERN TRENDS and DeMOGRAPHICAS. The SIMS is the best because it offers an almost lifelike sound in 5.1 DTS (not unlike the Flibertygibit Editor's Cutting Room Edition of BLADERUNNER) and you can pick the ending. I take all the female simbots out of MINE.

Blueray, schmooray---DOWNLOAD--IT'S THE WAY TO GO!!!



hehehe, I saw lizzie proctor sleeping with the devil

[GMichael]

Well this is just another TOTALLY UNTRUE post from an INDUSTRY INSIDER. All my friends that download YouTube videos in hidef say that they are great. On my SYSTEM with an ONKYO ht and POLK IN-THE-WALL speakers 1080p hidef programming from YouTube sounds and looks great---like a LASER DISC and much better than the DRACULA BLU-RAY!!

GAMES are great too and it's obvios that you know nothing about the MODERN TRENDS and DeMOGRAPHICAS. The SIMS is the best because it offers an almost lifelike sound in 5.1 DTS (not unlike the Flibertygibit Editor's Cutting Room Edition of BLADERUNNER) and you can pick the ending. I take all the female simbots out of MINE.

Blueray, schmooray---DOWNLOAD--IT'S THE WAY TO GO!!!



hehehe, I saw lizzie proctor sleeping with the devil

It's no wonder IBM and Lexmark parted ways.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Well this is just another TOTALLY UNTRUE post from an INDUSTRY INSIDER. All my friends that download YouTube videos in hidef say that they are great. On my SYSTEM with an ONKYO ht and POLK IN-THE-WALL speakers 1080p hidef programming from YouTube sounds and looks great---like a LASER DISC and much better than the DRACULA BLU-RAY!!

GAMES are great too and it's obvios that you know nothing about the MODERN TRENDS and DeMOGRAPHICAS. The SIMS is the best because it offers an almost lifelike sound in 5.1 DTS (not unlike the Flibertygibit Editor's Cutting Room Edition of BLADERUNNER) and you can pick the ending. I take all the female simbots out of MINE.

Blueray, schmooray---DOWNLOAD--IT'S THE WAY TO GO!!!

Huh? Who said that?

[pixelthis]

Huh? Who said that?

bobsticks...on the crack, as usual.
But hes' right basically.
Sir talky, as usual keeps talkin bout net downloads, and statin the obvious, of course TV episodes arent the major competition for blu, but the 225 million vod deliveries per month that Comcast claims are.
Now hes gonna come back with some fresh propaganda from the Sony supercomputer mainframe, but who cares?
Ken Pohlman was talking about VOD years ago, as were most in the know.
Well, its here. Will it kill Blu? OF COURSE NOT, but blu isnt going to be the all pervasive
format that its creators thought.
Those days are over

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Its funny that the pixeless would bring up the figure of 225 million VOD per month, but would not say that more than 95% of that is free programming. Funny......

Its also funny that the same individual would not mention the fact that PAID VOD from comcast is already down 10% from the fourth quarter of last year, which was down the 3rd quarter as well.

Its also funny he can predict the future when nobody else in the world can. So pixie, in the future are you finally going to get something right? Bluray has already grown faster than DVD at the same period in its life, and they have sold FAR more discs than DVD did at this point in its life. If Bluray is 50% of the disc market by 2011 its will be a big success. Most analyst who study the video and film trends believe it will acheive that. Some things do not have to be 100% big, it can be half that and be considered a success. I cannot see how a two tiered disc market will hurt the studios in any way, do you?

At the Home Media Expo this week, it was predicted that downloads and VOD would not be a viable video distribution pipeline for at LEAST a decade. They say the infrastructure just isn't there, and if the telecoms and IP's have not gotten broadband in every home at this point, that getting fios or any other speedier technology would take them quite a bit of time. If the studio truely believe this(and at least Disney does), then you are not going to see any more growth in that area until the content providers have more assurance that it is a viable income stream. Content drives growth, it has always been that way in the video industry.



As far as Ken Pohlmann, anyone can predict the future, the question is will it happen as they predict? Ken didn't provide a timetable, so he has a nice lets say 10-20 year cushion just in case it doesn't happen as fast as he thinks it will.

[bobsticks]

Huh? Who said that?

Rich that was my Lexie impersonation, not Pix.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Rich that was my Lexie impersonation, not Pix.

Well, that crazy nonesense could have come from Pixie easily.

[pixelthis]

Well, that crazy nonesense could have come from Pixie easily.

You are the master of crazy nonsense, it flows through your viens and pops outta your mouth occasionally.
I hooked up a playstation 3 for a friend over the weekend, he mainly wanted a dvd player and a gameplayer for his kid, but he was also excited about Blu.
Then he told me, reality set in, the cheapest disc they had was 29 bucks.
So he bought a bunch of blu cheapies for ten bucks apiece.
His closest blockbuster doesnt rent them, so hes going to stick with VOD mostly.
I hear this a lot from people, they dont see the value.
Regardless, I think your Sony masters are at best going to see a replacement for DVD with about the same prices, the same dollar store plastic players, etc.
my point is that the day of an overwhelming dominance of the market by one format is OVER.
Nowadays people have options.
Like you have the option of prozac, lithium, crack...

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

You are the master of crazy nonsense, it flows through your viens and pops outta your mouth occasionally.
I hooked up a playstation 3 for a friend over the weekend, he mainly wanted a dvd player and a gameplayer for his kid, but he was also excited about Blu.
Then he told me, reality set in, the cheapest disc they had was 29 bucks.
So he bought a bunch of blu cheapies for ten bucks apiece.
His closest blockbuster doesnt rent them, so hes going to stick with VOD mostly.
I hear this a lot from people, they dont see the value.
Regardless, I think your Sony masters are at best going to see a replacement for DVD with about the same prices, the same dollar store plastic players, etc.
my point is that the day of an overwhelming dominance of the market by one format is OVER.
Nowadays people have options.
Like you have the option of prozac, lithium, crack...

Hey crack head, I don't work for Sony. ARE YOU TOO STUPID TO GET IT?

So who are your masters Waste Management Services?

I do not want to hear your little anecdotal stories, I want to see accurate facts and figures.
Thanks.

[pixelthis]

Hey crack head, I don't work for Sony. ARE YOU TOO STUPID TO GET IT?

So who are your masters Waste Management Services?

I do not want to hear your little anecdotal stories, I want to see accurate facts and figures.
Thanks.

Accurate "facts and figures?"
WELL, heres an accurate "fact"

[pixelthis]

Hey crack head, I don't work for Sony. ARE YOU TOO STUPID TO GET IT?

So who are your masters Waste Management Services?

I do not want to hear your little anecdotal stories, I want to see accurate facts and figures.
Thanks.

AND heres some figures for ya ace...

[Rich-n-Texas]

Spectacular hooters!!!

[Ajani]

AND heres some figures for ya ace...

Sir T, I think Pix has you beat on this one... There's no arguing with those figures!!!