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  1. #1
    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    Inception on Blu-ray Breaks Sales Records

    Inception hit a new Blu-ray milestone by accounting for 65% of first week disc sales. This breaks the old record of 52% set by Iron Man 2. This is huge because this is the first time that you're seeing a Blu-ray title outsell the DVD by a roughly 2-to-1 margin.

    http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=5629

    While this is certainly encouraging news for Blu-ray, the overall year-to-date market share has been stuck around 15% since about the second quarter.

    The pattern that I've seen over the last couple of years has been a huge sales surge beginning in late-November. In January, the effect of all the new BD players bought during the holidays begins to take hold and disc sales increase accordingly. But, that sales increase levels off around March and the market share doesn't really change much until November.

    It will be interesting to see what happens in the first quarter of 2011. That will likely point to the direction that Blu-ray goes in 2011. I have a lot more thoughts on this that I'll probably try to round up when more information comes out in conjunction with CES in early-January.

    But, my general impression is that Blu-ray currently occupies an uneasy middle ground. It's definitely not a hobbyist niche, as Blu-ray has clearly gained a mainstream foothold with all major studio releases coming out day-and-date with the DVD version. But, it's not a sure bet successor to the DVD's dominance either. While Blu-ray has seen healthy growth numbers this year, it's no longer on the accelerated trajectory that we saw during the DVD format's fourth year. By the end of the DVD format's fourth year, it was a virtual certainty that it would supplant VHS. I don't see the same certainty with Blu-ray.

    We're still seeing incremental growth with Blu-ray, and the signs in the past few weeks point to the format's market share going past 20% for the 4th quarter. Two years ago, Blu-ray's market share was somewhere around 5%. Last year, it was about 10%. This year, it will likely settle in somewhere above 15%, which is lower than I thought Blu-ray would be at this point.

    While Inception points to significant momentum for the holidays and an encouraging indicator for Blu-ray adoption, the format still has some challenges to overcome and 2011 looks to be a crucial year in determining Blu-ray's longevity.
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  2. #2
    Forum Regular pixelthis's Avatar
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    I disagree(of course!).
    You have Blu ray HTIBS, BLU players bundled with HDTV'S,AND BLU is on the publics mind.
    No, Blu won't be a "successor" to DVD, a more accurate term would be the next stage in DVD's evolution.
    Glad to see INCEPTION did so good, its' a perfect BLU "demo". It also harkens good
    for the BLU format, almost everybody has to have a few discs to go with that new player of
    theirs. YEP, BLU'S here to stay.
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    ride a jet ski Tarheel_'s Avatar
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    I see blu-ray as a niche market like Laserdisc was....with faster internet connections gaining ground, most families are streaming. My family streams 95% of movies...I only purchase blu-ray discs for those with a high repeat viewing factor.

    Sitting on my sofa, i'd rather surf VUDU and watch the HD version once for $5, than spend time purchasing the movie at a store for $20.

  4. #4
    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarheel_
    I see blu-ray as a niche market like Laserdisc was....with faster internet connections gaining ground, most families are streaming. My family streams 95% of movies...I only purchase blu-ray discs for those with a high repeat viewing factor.

    Sitting on my sofa, i'd rather surf VUDU and watch the HD version once for $5, than spend time purchasing the movie at a store for $20.
    I'll repeat ... Blu-ray is NOT a niche market. Laserdisc never generated the kind of market share and sales growth that you see right now with Blu-ray. You might have been able to make this argument two years ago, but not now. Any format that can generate 65% of sales for a major studio release is way above where the Laserdisc ever was.

    I see streaming as the logical successor to video rentals, which is separate from the sell-through market. The sales growth for Blu-ray remains higher than for digital distribution, and is actually on pace to surpass all digital distribution revenues sometime in 2011.

    Most families might be streaming some video content (keep in mind though that more families have DVD players and/or cable/satellite service than broadband connections), but the average daily viewing time suggests that they are watching short clips on YouTube, not entire movies.
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  5. #5
    3LB
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    Lets not fergit that DVD replaced a product that is/was inferior (VHS) in every way possible. For the regular person, Blu-ray's improvements over DVD are nominal. A lot of the buying public's movie watching just isn't that studied.

    How are the newer BR players for quality? I had rotten luck with my first couple of players. Then they came out with progressive scan, HD... Everyone I know is on their fourth or fifth DVD player. That's so unacceptable in my opinion.
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  6. #6
    Silence of the spam Site Moderator Geoffcin's Avatar
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    My daughter bought it. We've watched it once already.
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  7. #7
    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3LB
    Lets not fergit that DVD replaced a product that is/was inferior (VHS) in every way possible. For the regular person, Blu-ray's improvements over DVD are nominal. A lot of the buying public's movie watching just isn't that studied.
    So, are you saying that the difference between SD and HDTV is nominal? Because that's essentially the argument you've made here.

    The higher resolution might be Blu-ray's primary advantage over DVD, but it's definitely noticeable. With TV screen sizes on the increase and HDTVs now in the majority of US households, it doesn't take much studying to see the difference.

    Won't matter anyway. Within two years, most of the first tier electronics manufacturers will probably exit the DVD player market and focus exclusively on Blu-ray players. The price points have already gotten close (DVD players aren't going to get cheaper than they already are) and Blu-ray players are now far outselling DVD players.

    I think the primary barrier to Blu-ray adoption is the disc pricing. Inception benefited from aggressive price breaks from retailers, and you see what happened when the Blu-ray title got put on a more equal price footing with the DVD version.

    Quote Originally Posted by 3LB
    How are the newer BR players for quality?
    Probably no different than any other home electronics component nowadays. Great picture quality and performance, but these components are designed to be disposable -- that's why you can find them for easily for under $100. The first group of Blu-ray players were built more ruggedly, but that's because they cost over $800. Yet, the newer players perform better and have fewer compatibility issues.

    If you want a higher quality Blu-ray player, those options are still out there.

    Quote Originally Posted by 3LB
    I had rotten luck with my first couple of players. Then they came out with progressive scan, HD... Everyone I know is on their fourth or fifth DVD player. That's so unacceptable in my opinion.
    Think about any mechanical device you use everyday in your house. How many years of service do you expect before it breaks?

    As mentioned above, consumer electronics nowadays are not built to last, and consumers fueled this demand because they prefer something cheap over something built like a tank that costs more.

    I don't think consumer electronics components are less reliable now than they were decades back. The primary difference is with what you do when it does break. Back in the days of $800 VCRs, when they broke, you had them fixed. But, when the price points fell below $100, you replaced them.

    You say that "everyone" you know has bought multiple DVD players. But, if DVD players still cost $500, wouldn't it stand to reason that those units would get repaired rather than replaced? With DVD players now selling for less than $50, you'd actually pay more to fix something than replace it.
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  8. #8
    3LB
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    The difference between BR and Standard DVD is stunning. I was referring to the fact that VHS was such a piece of crap. I personally owned titles that were good for a limited number of viewings before noticable quality degradation. Then there was the fast forward/rewind search thing. Storage sucked.

    I just wonder how many people are going to sit on their DVD collection and 'wait a while longer' to see how the BR thing works out.

    Of course, this only applies to people who buy movies. I'm not a movie buff. I rent first, buy second.

    How are BR rentals doing compared to DVD?
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  9. #9
    Loving This kexodusc's Avatar
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    This is all interesting stuff Wooch. I can only say for the first time I bought 3 BluRay players as gifts and was able to find some great deals on BR boxed sets and combo packs to throw in. At our local electronics stores and Wal-Marts, I was absolutely shocked at how much new shelf space BluRay occupies vs just a year ago. It might even be half and half now, but if not it's close. BR players were flying off the shelf when I was in the store, and I even saw some poor 17 year old kid try to step an older lady through wi-fi setup and the need to update firmware! If BluRay doesn't show some significant improvement over that 15% market share in 2011 I'll be very surprised.

    I dunno if BluRay will ever reach DVD's rate of adoption, but it seems to me now that it doesn't have to.

    I have all of my DVD's still and I after about the first year or so after owning BluRay and exhausting new titles, I've dipped back into DVD quite a bit in 2010 and didn't really find it bad at all - actually I'm often impressed at how good DVD still looks and sounds. Maybe there's room for both?

    I wonder if consumer patterns are changing - not just with respect to streaming but to video ownership overall?

  10. #10
    Forum Regular pixelthis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3LB
    Lets not fergit that DVD replaced a product that is/was inferior (VHS) in every way possible. For the regular person, Blu-ray's improvements over DVD are nominal. A lot of the buying public's movie watching just isn't that studied.

    How are the newer BR players for quality? I had rotten luck with my first couple of players. Then they came out with progressive scan, HD... Everyone I know is on their fourth or fifth DVD player. That's so unacceptable in my opinion.
    Fourth or fifth? Try tenth or eleventh.
    As to BLU's improvement over DVD, that depends on your system.
    A BLU player running DTS-MASTER at 24p is literally the best you can do, its the limit of the tech, and if you think its "marginal" over DVD, then you're doing something seriously wrong.
    As for VHS, it could record, and as much as they tried to bury it, SVHS had decent SD
    quality. I did all of my time shifting with it, had a lot of noise but was not that bad.
    As for DVD not being "that bad" as Kex says, he must not be watching much HD.
    HD on tv beats the tar outta DVD, BLU embarrasses it mightly.
    FUNNY what you get used to. DVD was end all be all when it came out, now its totally
    outclassed. I replace my DVD's with BLU whenever possible, give away my DVD versions.
    THE PICTURE that was so fantastic is now dull and lifeless, upconverting helps little.
    AS FOR LASER, people don't know just how marginal it really was, around two million players.
    But that is not evidence of the great unwashed's unappreciative attitude for quality .
    With the way the industry tried to constantly tried to kill laser, its a miracle it lasted
    as long as it did. And Pioneer was responsible for that.
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  11. #11
    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3LB
    The difference between BR and Standard DVD is stunning. I was referring to the fact that VHS was such a piece of crap. I personally owned titles that were good for a limited number of viewings before noticable quality degradation. Then there was the fast forward/rewind search thing. Storage sucked.
    Thanks for clarifying. Yeah, the DVD represented a sea change because it not only brought features like random access, 5.1 audio, and interactive feature to the masses; but it also moved the price points into a sweet spot that most families could easily afford.

    It fundamentally changed the home video industry by transforming it into a market dominated by sell-through, whereas in the VHS era, rentals dominated.

    Quote Originally Posted by 3LB
    I just wonder how many people are going to sit on their DVD collection and 'wait a while longer' to see how the BR thing works out.
    I think a lot of people will sit on their DVD collections permanently. Even though a lot of consumers will upgrade DVDs for Blu-rays, you won't see entire collections getting swapped out. For one thing, a lot of movies sitting on collectors' shelves simply aren't worth upgrading, or watching again.

    The DVD format created an entire generation of video collectors, as consumers eagerly populated their libraries with movies. Most of these were first time purchases, as VHS never attracted the same level of sell-through. Blu-ray doesn't have that same opportunity, as most of the movies that people want to buy, they already bought on DVD. You will get some repeat purchases, but not nearly as many as you saw the first time around with the DVD.

    [QUOTE=3LB]With Blu-ray, the first-time purchases would mostly be with new releases

    That's how it was with the DVD format as well. New releases though dominate the home video market, and that's what will ultimately drive Blu-ray sales.

    Quote Originally Posted by 3LB
    How are BR rentals doing compared to DVD?
    Not sure. I would guess the split would be comparable, with maybe a lower share for Blu-ray. For one thing, Blu-ray rentals often cost more. Also, I recall that the VHS rental market lingered on for a while, even after most retail stores had phased tapes out.
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  12. #12
    Oldest join date recoveryone's Avatar
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    4th-5th...10th-12th??? wow!!! I have had nothing but outstanding performance from all of the DVD players I have purchased over the years (total of 3) and I still have two of them, the other was handed down to a family member. (still works, last time I asked, brought it in 98)

    The one thing we must still look at is the ability of Blu Ray players. Yes they play blu ray and also upconvert standard DVD's. So the average consumer will see this as a win-win deal for he can still buy both formats and use the same machine and get a better picture on both formats. Now HDMI plays a big part in this too, for now the average joe only needs to know where to put one cable in to get the picture and sound instead of running 5/7 analog and optical/coax. The numbers are driven by the ease of use by the masses and the easier you can make it for people the more they will buy into it. I say just be happy that the new technology improves the quality of picture and sound and the ease of use/hookup is no big deal for people like us.
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  13. #13
    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kexodusc
    This is all interesting stuff Wooch. I can only say for the first time I bought 3 BluRay players as gifts and was able to find some great deals on BR boxed sets and combo packs to throw in. At our local electronics stores and Wal-Marts, I was absolutely shocked at how much new shelf space BluRay occupies vs just a year ago. It might even be half and half now, but if not it's close. BR players were flying off the shelf when I was in the store, and I even saw some poor 17 year old kid try to step an older lady through wi-fi setup and the need to update firmware! If BluRay doesn't show some significant improvement over that 15% market share in 2011 I'll be very surprised.
    The hardware side has already swung decisively to Blu-ray, as the price gap continues to narrow. As mentioned earlier, I don't think any of the tier one manufacturers will still be making standalone DVD players within a couple of years.

    Last year, I would've expected Blu-ray's market share for 2010 to be somewhere closer to 20-25%. But, the aggressive pricing we saw during the holiday season on new Blu-ray releases did not hold over, and I think that impeded the Blu-ray disc sales growth. The heavy discounting did not return in earnest until November, and the splits we see with Inception reflect the big discounts that brought the pricing on that title down to the DVD level.

    Quote Originally Posted by kexodusc
    I dunno if BluRay will ever reach DVD's rate of adoption, but it seems to me now that it doesn't have to.

    I have all of my DVD's still and I after about the first year or so after owning BluRay and exhausting new titles, I've dipped back into DVD quite a bit in 2010 and didn't really find it bad at all - actually I'm often impressed at how good DVD still looks and sounds. Maybe there's room for both?
    I don't think you're alone. I've also continued buying DVDs. In some cases, the DVD had a ridiculously low price, in others a Blu-ray version is not available. But, I've also started seeing some great bargains showing up with older Blu-ray titles, and that seems to have accelerated my Blu-ray purchases in recent weeks. For example, I just purchased the Bourne trilogy on Blu-ray for $35. Never owned any of the Bourne movies, so this was a nice pick up.

    With new releases though, there's no going back. One thing about these Blu-ray/DVD combo packs is that I can compare the picture quality for myself. The DVD might look "good enough" until I flip over to the Blu-ray version, and it's just no comparison.

    Quote Originally Posted by kexodusc
    I wonder if consumer patterns are changing - not just with respect to streaming but to video ownership overall?
    That definitely remains to be seen. The DVD fundamentally changed home video by transforming it into a sell-through market. Netflix and other streaming services could eventually create a similar disruptive effect. The bad economy has shifted some demand back to the rental side, especially with $1 kiosk rentals now available everywhere.

    Still, the sell-through market remains huge. However, we'll never see revenues anywhere near the 2006 peak ever again. For one thing, we no longer have a huge backlog of library titles that people are clamoring to own, and releasing library titles on Blu-ray does not change the fact that most collectors who want certain movies already own them on DVD. Combined DVD and Blu-ray revenues from new releases have declined, but not as much as library titles have. Part of this is the steeper price cuts needed to move older DVD inventory. I suspect that the unit sales have not declined much.
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  14. #14
    Silence of the spam Site Moderator Geoffcin's Avatar
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    Well we're up to two BlueRay players here if you count the PS3, in addition to two HD-DVD players and about a hundred HD-DVD's I haven't had the time or inclination to watch.

    BlueRay would really have to LOWER the price of the software to beat DVD into the grave. In this economy asking $20-$25 for a movie is too much. Heck, I payed over $35 for the "collectors edition" of Avatar!
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    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by recoveryone
    4th-5th...10th-12th??? wow!!! I have had nothing but outstanding performance from all of the DVD players I have purchased over the years (total of 3) and I still have two of them, the other was handed down to a family member. (still works, last time I asked, brought it in 98)
    I'm currently on my third and fourth DVD players. One replaced an eight year old Denon, while the other replaced a seven year old Toshiba in the spare/play room. In both cases, the drives simply quit reading the discs reliably. I still use a dedicated DVD player in my main system to take the load off my PS3.

    Quote Originally Posted by recoveryone
    The one thing we must still look at is the ability of Blu Ray players. Yes they play blu ray and also upconvert standard DVD's. So the average consumer will see this as a win-win deal for he can still buy both formats and use the same machine and get a better picture on both formats. Now HDMI plays a big part in this too, for now the average joe only needs to know where to put one cable in to get the picture and sound instead of running 5/7 analog and optical/coax. The numbers are driven by the ease of use by the masses and the easier you can make it for people the more they will buy into it. I say just be happy that the new technology improves the quality of picture and sound and the ease of use/hookup is no big deal for people like us.
    This is exactly why Blu-ray players have outsold DVD players for at least the past year. Nearly all TVs sold nowadays are HD, and I think the message has finally sunk in that Blu-ray is the only real HD disc format, despite all the confusion about what 1080p upconversion actually does.

    IMO, the purported benefits of upconverting DVD players got way oversold when Blu-ray player prices still cost hundreds of dollars more. But, now with the price gap narrowed down to as little as $20, it just makes no sense to invest in a 480i optical format. And pretty soon, the rest of the market for dedicated DVD players will disappear, in much the same way that Blu-ray players have completely supplanted DVD players at the higher end.

    And I also think that the media center and streaming functions getting built into many of the current Blu-ray players is yet another incentive that will spur sales. Even for people who don't intend to watch a lot of Blu-ray movies, a $130 Blu-ray player that can connect to a home media server, and stream content from Netflix, Vudu, YouTube, Pandora, and others, is actually very price competitive with other set-top boxes that don't play any disc media.

    Quote Originally Posted by Geoffcin
    Well we're up to two BlueRay players here if you count the PS3, in addition to two HD-DVD players and about a hundred HD-DVD's I haven't had the time or inclination to watch.

    BlueRay would really have to LOWER the price of the software to beat DVD into the grave. In this economy asking $20-$25 for a movie is too much. Heck, I payed over $35 for the "collectors edition" of Avatar!
    Agreed. The list prices (and presumably the wholesale costs) on Blu-ray discs haven't really changed since last year, and that's probably the biggest reason why Blu-ray's market share stalled for much of 2010 after that post-holiday bounce in January and February. The current quarter has seen Blu-ray's market share increase to about 19%, which will probably increase with the return of deep discounting on new Blu-ray releases.

    With all the new Blu-ray players sitting under Christmas trees, Blu-ray's market share will inevitably increase even further in January and February. The only question is how high it will go, especially if the price points return to their pre-holiday levels.

    $35 for Avatar ... wow, prices really shot back up after all that week-of-release discounting (bought mine for $20 at Target).
    Last edited by Woochifer; 12-21-2010 at 05:22 PM.
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    Forum Regular pixelthis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by recoveryone
    4th-5th...10th-12th??? wow!!! I have had nothing but outstanding performance from all of the DVD players I have purchased over the years (total of 3) and I still have two of them, the other was handed down to a family member. (still works, last time I asked, brought it in 98)

    The one thing we must still look at is the ability of Blu Ray players. Yes they play blu ray and also upconvert standard DVD's. So the average consumer will see this as a win-win deal for he can still buy both formats and use the same machine and get a better picture on both formats. Now HDMI plays a big part in this too, for now the average joe only needs to know where to put one cable in to get the picture and sound instead of running 5/7 analog and optical/coax. The numbers are driven by the ease of use by the masses and the easier you can make it for people the more they will buy into it. I say just be happy that the new technology improves the quality of picture and sound and the ease of use/hookup is no big deal for people like us.
    My oldest is an eight year old DVD-DVD AUDIO player, also in my system is a four year old
    SACD-DVD-AUDIO upconverter. 10 or 12? Nope, but at least seven.
    I don't understand why anybody would buy a DVD player anymore, not when you can get a
    quality BLU player for 125 bucks, and a POS BLU for 79$(INSIGNIA).
    I tell friends to think of a BLU player as a top of the line DVD player. EVEN if
    your current system can't utilize the full capability , it allows you to enjoy BLU discs now,
    and when you upgrade your system you'll have the discs.
    MAKES no sense to buy a DVD player, horse and buggy.
    LG 42", integra 6.9, B&W 602s2, CC6 center, dm305rears, b&w
    sub asw2500
    Panny DVDA player
    sharp Aquos BLU player
    pronto remote, technics antique direct drive TT
    Samsung SACD/DVDA player
    emotiva upa-2 two channel amp

  17. #17
    Oldest join date recoveryone's Avatar
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    The Price range is mainly due to where you buy it. I have only paid over $20 on a few titles, most have been between $15-19 dollars (most recent "Salt" $19 @ Wal Mart). The Avatar special release just made up for the first release that was only $15.
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  18. #18
    Forum Regular pixelthis's Avatar
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    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by recoveryone
    The Price range is mainly due to where you buy it. I have only paid over $20 on a few titles, most have been between $15-19 dollars (most recent "Salt" $19 @ Wal Mart). The Avatar special release just made up for the first release that was only $15.
    Need to get SALT.
    And retailers are doing their part. THERE are several older titles at Walmart, Movie stop,
    ten to fifteen bucks, and older titles on BLU can be a rediscovery.
    If the value wasnt there, I could see skipping BLU, but the value is there.
    Besides, if we don't support this format it will be gone with the WIND.
    Think of it as an investment in the future of HT, we don't want BLU to windup in the
    same boneyard as SACD or DVD-A.
    LG 42", integra 6.9, B&W 602s2, CC6 center, dm305rears, b&w
    sub asw2500
    Panny DVDA player
    sharp Aquos BLU player
    pronto remote, technics antique direct drive TT
    Samsung SACD/DVDA player
    emotiva upa-2 two channel amp

  19. #19
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    blu ray is here to stay thanks to netflix

    I have had my new sammy 63 with blu ray 6900 for about two weeks now and here are a few thoughts

    thanks to netflix for an extra $2 per month anyone can easily see 2 blu rays per week so why buy except maybe some favorites or for demos I am only on my second disk so far but I could take years to see all they have

    blu ray player upconversion is great. I just watched T2 dvd and it looked fantastic, I will not buy T2 on bluray (not even sure if it is available) However my only real comparison is Stargate dvd vrs bluray and the bluray looked much much better so it seems like the differences willl vary from disk to disk just like cd's did

    the sound on blu ray is noticeable better however again this is only for my Stargate comparison

  20. #20
    Forum Regular pixelthis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lomarica
    I have had my new sammy 63 with blu ray 6900 for about two weeks now and here are a few thoughts

    thanks to netflix for an extra $2 per month anyone can easily see 2 blu rays per week so why buy except maybe some favorites or for demos I am only on my second disk so far but I could take years to see all they have

    blu ray player upconversion is great. I just watched T2 dvd and it looked fantastic, I will not buy T2 on bluray (not even sure if it is available) However my only real comparison is Stargate dvd vrs bluray and the bluray looked much much better so it seems like the differences willl vary from disk to disk just like cd's did

    the sound on blu ray is noticeable better however again this is only for my Stargate comparison
    Microsoft had a COMPUTER based HD system for a short while, and T2 was one of their offerings. The BLU is based on that version.
    Didn't expect much, but this is a nuclear disc, really amazing picture and sound.
    my copy cost ten BUCKS at Walmart. If an amazing offering like this at a ten dollar price
    point won't move you, nothing will. Independence Day was the same price.
    LG 42", integra 6.9, B&W 602s2, CC6 center, dm305rears, b&w
    sub asw2500
    Panny DVDA player
    sharp Aquos BLU player
    pronto remote, technics antique direct drive TT
    Samsung SACD/DVDA player
    emotiva upa-2 two channel amp

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