Hollywood Reporter: Toshiba to Drop HD-DVD

[diggity]

is is all very, very interesting indeed. but as the saying goes,"it's not all over till the fat lady sings", and i dont know about anyone else but i don't see one just yet. the amount of money being thrown at hd-dvd by microsoft to keep this "battle" going and universal persistance wont end overnight (though i wish it would). and besides at the moment its all conjecture at the moment by "reliable sources" who remain unnamed.

cheers: dazza

[diggity]

oops just read L.J's thread about wal-mart. but the fat lady hasn't sung yet, she's just warming up her vocal chords. i still think there will be one more interesting developement in this story before she sings.

cheers: dazza

ps: for sale one hd format. one careful owner. all research done, may need marketing makeover. only one competing format (which we think isn't as good). buy now and also receive two contracts from high profile studios absolutely free. needs to be sold fast as owner is moving away. interesting offers considered. please make all genuine enquiries via e-mail.

(oh please god, someone make an offer)

[Woochifer]

is is all very, very interesting indeed. but as the saying goes,"it's not all over till the fat lady sings", and i dont know about anyone else but i don't see one just yet. the amount of money being thrown at hd-dvd by microsoft to keep this "battle" going and universal persistance wont end overnight (though i wish it would). and besides at the moment its all conjecture at the moment by "reliable sources" who remain unnamed.

You might regard it as conjecture. But, if Toshiba's continuing to lose money on each unit sold and continuing to bleed market share every week despite steep price reductions, logic would dictate that at some point they'll come to their senses and quit throwing money into that sink hole. And even if Toshiba persists in pushing a losing format, retailers won't, as evidenced by the announcements just this week from Netflix, Best Buy, and Wal-Mart.

oops just read L.J's thread about wal-mart. but the fat lady hasn't sung yet, she's just warming up her vocal chords. i still think there will be one more interesting developement in this story before she sings.

cheers: dazza

ps: for sale one hd format. one careful owner. all research done, may need marketing makeover. only one competing format (which we think isn't as good). buy now and also receive two contracts from high profile studios absolutely free. needs to be sold fast as owner is moving away. interesting offers considered. please make all genuine enquiries via e-mail.

(oh please god, someone make an offer)

I don't think there are any more interesting developments in the offing, unless you're taking about Toshiba going Blu-ray. Even if Toshiba continues to trudge along, and even if Blockbuster, Netflix, Best Buy, and Wal-Mart hadn't dialed back their support for HD-DVD, the format got put onto the fast track to oblivion when Warner announced that they would drop HD-DVD. It basically eliminated HD-DVD's strongest studio partner, and signaled to retailers that the end was near.

As I've stated before, HD-DVD's market share has now slipped below 25% in North America, and that's with Warner still releasing HD-DVD titles. Retailers know that the writing's on the wall for HD-DVD, and won't wait for any announcements from Toshiba, Microsoft, Universal, and Paramount before taking matters into their own hands. Retail shelf space is too valuable to be occupied by a soon-to-be orphaned format for very long.

[diggity]

i agee with 100% and i am suprised hd-dvds' market share is that high. here in australia i would think it is less than 15%. and it is about time this "Battle" is over so we can all enjoy movies in hd without any concerns over formats.and like i said before i think most hd-dvd title sales are actually the give aways they offer with the players. i'll just wait with eagerness the day it will finally be done and dusted with.

cheers: dazza

[markw]

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9869568-1.html

I won't even get into WalMart here.

So, another format war draws to a close. It's now down to minimizing the losses.

The great Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD battle now enters the realms of history along with:

The numerous record eq formats that existed before the RIAA stepped in to impose order.
Beta vs VHS, where superior technology proved no match for superior marketing.
The quad triplets (SQ,QS and CD-4) who bludgeoned each other into submission while we all sat back and watched. This also seems to be happening with SACD?DVD-Audio as well)
AM stereo, but who even knew about this, much less cared about it anyway.

...and others Feel free to add to this list.

[filecat13]

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9869568-1.html

I won't even get into WalMart here.

So, another format war draws to a close. It's now down to minimizing the losses.

The great Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD battle now enters the realms of history along with:

The numerous record eq formats that existed before the RIAA stepped in to impose order.
Beta vs VHS, where superior technology proved no match for superior marketing.
The quad triplets (SQ,QS and CD-4) who bludgeoned each other into submission while we all sat back and watched. This also seems to be happening with SACD?DVD-Audio as well)
AM stereo, but who even knew about this, much less cared about it anyway.

...and others Feel free to add to this list.

RCA CED vs LD
LD vs VCD vs DVD
now apparently DVD vs BD vs MPEG-4/H.264

For my money I'm skipping the BD (and obviously the HD-DVD) in anticipation of streaming or downloadable HD content. It's not quite here, but will be sooner than later, and I don't need another piece of obsolete equipment in the garage and dozens or hundreds of obsolete pieces of media.

Besides, with my viewing habits, I'll save hundreds of dollars per year by renting via iTunes or some other source when it's ready. For the nonce, DVDs will do just fine. BluRay can bask in short-lived victory, but I anticipate it will fall quickly to a competitor that it cannot effectively fight: MPEG-4/H.264 files on your hard drive or media server.

[Woochifer]

RCA CED vs LD
LD vs VCD vs DVD
now apparently DVD vs BD vs MPEG-4/H.264

And let's not forget DIVX v. DVD!

For my money I'm skipping the BD (and obviously the HD-DVD) in anticipation of streaming or downloadable HD content. It's not quite here, but will be sooner than later, and I don't need another piece of obsolete equipment in the garage and dozens or hundreds of obsolete pieces of media.

Besides, with my viewing habits, I'll save hundreds of dollars per year by renting via iTunes or some other source when it's ready. For the nonce, DVDs will do just fine. BluRay can bask in short-lived victory, but I anticipate it will fall quickly to a competitor that it cannot effectively fight: MPEG-4/H.264 files on your hard drive or media server.

Had plenty of discussion already on this topic. I used to believe the same thing, but then I look at how heavily the studios have locked down digital downloads -- basically relegating them to VOD/rental replacements. The home video market has transitioned into primarily a sell-through market -- the majority of revenue now comes from purchased content, not rentals or PPV or VOD.

So long as the studios continue to treat downloads as a heavily locked down exercise and make a huge chunk of titles available for rental only, this won't replace disc media. Right now, studios make a lot more from disc purchases than from rental revenue. Unless a business model can be developed that creates higher revenue potential from downloads, the studios will likely continue to stack the deck in favor of purchase media, whether that's DVD or Blu-ray.

In addition, in order to make the files feasible for a typical household, the file has to be heavily compressed and use the lowest resolution possible for 5.1 audio. MAnd even at borderline acceptable HD image quality, it won't take much to fill up a hard drive, which again limits the appeal of downloading for collectors.

Plus, there's the current reality of bandwidth limitations for most households (even with a 3.0 MB broadband service, it will still take well over an hour to download a minimal HD movie file -- i.e., 720p resolution and low bandwidth 5.1 audio), and the future reality of broadband providers imposing traffic throttling or bandwidth surcharges on video downloading and/or heavy internet usage.

With Blu-ray, you're talking about a 50 GB disc capacity, 1080p resolution, and lossless audio. No way that downloads can feasibly match that now or anytime soon. And all of the current HD download options currently on the market have a significant limitation of some kind that severely limit their appeal for your average technically challenged Joe6p.

I think the market will transition over to Blu-ray once hardware prices get to within striking distance of upconverting DVD players, and at the rate that hardware prices have declined since the format's introduction, that could happen by the end of the year. I doubt that people will repurchase their existing DVD collections in droves (and catalog titles are what drove the phenomenal growth of the DVD format until the most of the heavily demanded titles had already come out), but they will simply opt to buy a Blu-ray version in lieu of the DVD on the date of release for new titles.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

And let's not forget DIVX v. DVD!



Had plenty of discussion already on this topic. I used to believe the same thing, but then I look at how heavily the studios have locked down digital downloads -- basically relegating them to VOD/rental replacements. The home video market has transitioned into primarily a sell-through market -- the majority of revenue now comes from purchased content, not rentals or PPV or VOD.

So long as the studios continue to treat downloads as a heavily locked down exercise and make a huge chunk of titles available for rental only, this won't replace disc media. Right now, studios make a lot more from disc purchases than from rental revenue. Unless a business model can be developed that creates higher revenue potential from downloads, the studios will likely continue to stack the deck in favor of purchase media, whether that's DVD or Blu-ray.

In addition, in order to make the files feasible for a typical household, the file has to be heavily compressed and use the lowest resolution possible for 5.1 audio. MAnd even at borderline acceptable HD image quality, it won't take much to fill up a hard drive, which again limits the appeal of downloading for collectors.

Plus, there's the current reality of bandwidth limitations for most households (even with a 3.0 MB broadband service, it will still take well over an hour to download a minimal HD movie file -- i.e., 720p resolution and low bandwidth 5.1 audio), and the future reality of broadband providers imposing traffic throttling or bandwidth surcharges on video downloading and/or heavy internet usage.

With Blu-ray, you're talking about a 50 GB disc capacity, 1080p resolution, and lossless audio. No way that downloads can feasibly match that now or anytime soon. And all of the current HD download options currently on the market have a significant limitation of some kind that severely limit their appeal for your average technically challenged Joe6p.

I think the market will transition over to Blu-ray once hardware prices get to within striking distance of upconverting DVD players, and at the rate that hardware prices have declined since the format's introduction, that could happen by the end of the year. I doubt that people will repurchase their existing DVD collections in droves (and catalog titles are what drove the phenomenal growth of the DVD format until the most of the heavily demanded titles had already come out), but they will simply opt to buy a Blu-ray version in lieu of the DVD on the date of release for new titles.

Wow, we were within minutes of each other on this thought process. LOLOLOL. You have got to be my long lost twin(with some cultural considerations of course LOL)

[pixelthis]

And let's not forget DIVX v. DVD!



Had plenty of discussion already on this topic. I used to believe the same thing, but then I look at how heavily the studios have locked down digital downloads -- basically relegating them to VOD/rental replacements. The home video market has transitioned into primarily a sell-through market -- the majority of revenue now comes from purchased content, not rentals or PPV or VOD.

So long as the studios continue to treat downloads as a heavily locked down exercise and make a huge chunk of titles available for rental only, this won't replace disc media. Right now, studios make a lot more from disc purchases than from rental revenue. Unless a business model can be developed that creates higher revenue potential from downloads, the studios will likely continue to stack the deck in favor of purchase media, whether that's DVD or Blu-ray.

In addition, in order to make the files feasible for a typical household, the file has to be heavily compressed and use the lowest resolution possible for 5.1 audio. MAnd even at borderline acceptable HD image quality, it won't take much to fill up a hard drive, which again limits the appeal of downloading for collectors.

Plus, there's the current reality of bandwidth limitations for most households (even with a 3.0 MB broadband service, it will still take well over an hour to download a minimal HD movie file -- i.e., 720p resolution and low bandwidth 5.1 audio), and the future reality of broadband providers imposing traffic throttling or bandwidth surcharges on video downloading and/or heavy internet usage.

With Blu-ray, you're talking about a 50 GB disc capacity, 1080p resolution, and lossless audio. No way that downloads can feasibly match that now or anytime soon. And all of the current HD download options currently on the market have a significant limitation of some kind that severely limit their appeal for your average technically challenged Joe6p.

I think the market will transition over to Blu-ray once hardware prices get to within striking distance of upconverting DVD players, and at the rate that hardware prices have declined since the format's introduction, that could happen by the end of the year. I doubt that people will repurchase their existing DVD collections in droves (and catalog titles are what drove the phenomenal growth of the DVD format until the most of the heavily demanded titles had already come out), but they will simply opt to buy a Blu-ray version in lieu of the DVD on the date of release for new titles.

The net isnt going to be the main source of "downloading", VOD is.
I can buy a movie (some are free) and watch it like any other show, I can pause, ff, etc,
anytime in a 24hr period.
I don't see why people have trouble understanding this.
Already its very popular here in town.
Net downloading is still aways off, but who needs it with a hugh pipe called fiber optic?
Sir talky will tell you that these new systems are obsolete out of the box(guess thats why they spent several hundred mill on each one) but truth is that the space devoted to cablemodem is the space between ch 3 and 4!
In other words theres a hugh amount of capacity available.
Its not downloading mpeg4 off the net but it is HD and DD mostly, fine for casual rental

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

RCA CED vs LD
LD vs VCD vs DVD
now apparently DVD vs BD vs MPEG-4/H.264

For my money I'm skipping the BD (and obviously the HD-DVD) in anticipation of streaming or downloadable HD content. It's not quite here, but will be sooner than later, and I don't need another piece of obsolete equipment in the garage and dozens or hundreds of obsolete pieces of media.

Besides, with my viewing habits, I'll save hundreds of dollars per year by renting via iTunes or some other source when it's ready. For the nonce, DVDs will do just fine. BluRay can bask in short-lived victory, but I anticipate it will fall quickly to a competitor that it cannot effectively fight: MPEG-4/H.264 files on your hard drive or media server.

I think you assesment of the market place might be a bit off base. You are going to be waiting a long time for downloads to overtake bluray.

1. The studios are not making any major revenue from downloads, so you are not going to see them releasing their "A" list titles until after sales of DVD's and Bluray's die down. What is out there will not look much like HD when you compare it to what you get on disc.

2. You had better hope you do not have comcast or Warner cable, or you will be paying dearly for your downloads once it get past a certain point. They want you to get VOD, not apple Itunes. They are not going to do a dang thing to help their competitor.

3. Cable and the download services(Apple and Microsoft) are starting what appears like a war with each other. Apple scores major contracts with studios for television and some movies, Comcast and Warner announce download limits, of which when you go over them, it costs you dearly. VOD against streaming and downloading services, that is the next battle. People seem to be ignoring this while playing up HD DVD versus Bluray.

4. With HD DVD gone, expect retailers to step on the gas with their bluray campaigns and promotions. The B&M retailers see downloading as a threat to their business as well, especially Best Buy the largest seller of DVD's and Blurays. They will not allow themselves to be cut out of the pie by Microsoft, Apple, Comcast, or Warner cable.

5. Expect the studio to follow with retailers in pushing HDM over downloading with VERY aggressive educational campaigns. You are going to see very soon in the future plenty of material that will show the differences between what you get as a download, and what you get on disc. The studio I work for has had their educational compaign going for almost a year now. The studios are not about to give up on their worldwide $42 billion dollar business over something that only netted $123 million in 2007.

6. You are going to see more and more screenshot comparisons between downloading and HDM on disc. They are already around for DVD and bluray/HD DVD. Alot of hometheater enthusiasts are not thrilled with the prospects of having a lower resolution download overtake a higher resolution format as the major way of getting movies in their theaters. A trip to HTF, AVS and several other high profile A/V websites clearly shows this.

7. Analysist who actually follow and monitor the movie business have been telling studios that downloading is not ready for prime time, and will not be ready for years. At this point those who are looking for convience over quality, there will be enough out there for you to pull down. Those looking for quality and high performance will not support downloading as it is now. When you compare screenshots of Apple's little HD offerings with lowly DVD, most would agree the DVD comes out on top in both PQ and SQ.

8. The quality of downloads will have to catch up with Bluray before it will be accepted by those who actually drive the market(the folks with the most disposible income). While the online hometheater enthusiast is not representative of the common individual, the enthusiast is what gives the format legs. They would be the ones that would buy the files, and the servers that these files will rest in. If you cannot get a download to look like what they have seen already(1080p, 24fps for movies, 40mbps bitrate, lossless high bit audio, interactivity), then the chances of downloads taking off soon or quickly will be pretty much nil. Survey after survey sponsored by the movie studios has shown that it is the quality and performance folks that push technology, and the convience folks follow. This is why we are seeing such beautiful imagery from bluray, and why we are finally getting as close as the studio master in terms of audio that we have ever seen.

9. The very people that pushed the DVD format over VHS (35 y/o and older) are folks that are used to seeing physical objects after they spend their money. They bought vinyl records, cassette tapes, VHS tapes, DVD's and now Blurays. They have spent their lifetimes owning physical media. Many do not have a high comfort level with spending money for a digital file, over a physical disc. Those who are now 25 y/o and under have no problem with owning a file over a disc, even though the teenage crowd are major purchasers of DVD's. They are much more computer savvy, and will probably be the major pushers of downloading over the disc. When they become the major spenders for HDM, the disc will definately go bye bye. Nobody sees that happening for at least another 10-12 years.

10. While most homes in American have access to the internet, only 52% of homes in American have access to broadband. The rural areas of this country do not have broadband or DSL. They however can go to their local supermarket and get DVD's. Until America is fully wired with high speed internet(and not what speed we have right now) do not expect the Studios to abandon a $20 billion dollar business any time soon.

Lastly, the studios are deathly afraid of online movie proliferation and piracy. So any downloads that are, or will be available in the future will have all kinds of conditional DRM that limits the mobility of the file. Even now Apple downloads will allow you to export to Ipod, but not to any other computer in your house. You cannot get the file from your ipod to another computer. Rentals will have tight timelines, you will not have access forever. Digital sell throughs will allow for one computer to host the file, not multiple computers. The Digital file will probably self destruct if tampered with. I believe that if hackers are able to break any encyption on the file and proliferate it, the studio will find another more secure medium to release on. I do not believe the studio have the stomach to see their intellectual property traded freely all over the net like it has with the DVD. Especially not their HD offerings.

While it is crystal clear that downloading will eventually supplant B&M rentals, most analyst agree that Netflix and Blockbuster will do well far into the future because you can get quality with convience renting discs that are mail sent and returned. The internet infrastucture will have to by seriously upgraded to a much faster speed, with a lot fewer bottlenecks to handle the traffic, and by most estimates(which do not agree) it will be VERY expensive to do(which everyone agrees with). So the major question becomes, do I as a cable company increased my bandwidth, speed, and traffic flow at a major expense, and which gives my competitors a huge inroad into my system? Or do I spend my money on more HD programming to suit my own VOD needs and leave my internet infrastucture as is? Alot of folks think that downloading over bluray or any other disc media is a slam dunk. For music, this is probably true with their much smaller file sizes. But as you reduce the file size, quality suffers no matter what video encoder you use. So there is a limit to how much compression you can use without getting artifacts.

I believe, and I think that most folks that follow the industry I work in believe this as well. The DVD will be long gone before downloading is the primary delivery system. Bluray will be around for at least 10-12 years before downloading Digital files to own is a viable option. There has to be a sea of change on so many levels before downloading is the primary delivery system.