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Blu Tide Continues to Turn: Porn Studios Ready to Abandon HD-DVD?
HD-DVD's uphill battle seems to get steeper and steeper as the news stacks up.
Wow, not too long ago, the HD-DVD proponents were declaring that porn would turn the tide against Blu-ray, arguing that porn helped VHS get over on Betamax. Given how the sales trends have gone (i.e., Blu-ray outselling HD-DVD every week in 2007), that has not happened. Even though a lot has been written about Sony not accepting Blu-ray duplicating jobs for porn titles, porn titles have already gone out on Blu-ray, so some other duplicating houses are accepting the porn jobs.
Well, now it turns out that porn studios are seeing the market shifts and might be ready to abandon HD-DVD. Apparently, the talk at the AVN porn convention (which overlaps CES) centered on studios abandoning HD-DVD. Digital Playground, purportedly the leading HD porn distributor, is apparently set to drop HD-DVD by the end of the year.
http://www.i4u.com/article14003.html
Other not-so-favorable signs for HD-DVD have also cropped up.
Aside from the persistent rumors about Universal and Paramount, Warner has already taken a subtle but significant step back in its HD-DVD support. While they have not dropped previously announced titles (a la Paramount), they have begun to stagger the HD-DVD releases while retaining concurrent release dates for the DVD and Blu-ray versions. For example, I Am Legend is due out on DVD and Blu-ray on March 18, while the HD-DVD version will not come out until "early April." Also, Twister: Special Edition comes out May 6 on DVD and Blu-ray, while the HD-DVD version hits stores three weeks later on May 27.
Also, a Home Media article refers to a preliminary tabulation of last week's Nielson sales data. Again, not a good sign for HD-DVD. Apparently, last week's sales figures show HD-DVD with only a 15% market share of HD discs. This is significant because 1) last week was the first full sales week after Warner's announcement; and 2) this is the biggest one-week sales lead that Blu-ray has had.
If this holds up in the final tabulation, then it's safe to say that the Warner announcement has already reverberated down to the retail level, in effect stopping HD-DVD sales cold. If consumers have already stopped purchasing HD-DVDs, then it won't take long before retailers begin phasing out their HD-DVD sections (if they haven't already). At that point, it won't matter what Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal decide on HD-DVD, the retailers and consumers will have already made the decision for them.
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Porn? Now you're talking downloading-R-us.
But yet another domino is falling.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
HD-DVD's uphill battle seems to get steeper and steeper as the news stacks up.
Wow, not too long ago, the HD-DVD proponents were declaring that porn would turn the tide against Blu-ray, arguing that porn helped VHS get over on Betamax. Given how the sales trends have gone (i.e., Blu-ray outselling HD-DVD every week in 2007), that has not happened. Even though a lot has been written about Sony not accepting Blu-ray duplicating jobs for porn titles, porn titles have already gone out on Blu-ray, so some other duplicating houses are accepting the porn jobs.
Well, now it turns out that porn studios are seeing the market shifts and might be ready to abandon HD-DVD. Apparently, the talk at the AVN porn convention (which overlaps CES) centered on studios abandoning HD-DVD. Digital Playground, purportedly the leading HD porn distributor, is apparently set to drop HD-DVD by the end of the year.
http://www.i4u.com/article14003.html
Other not-so-favorable signs for HD-DVD have also cropped up.
Aside from the persistent rumors about Universal and Paramount, Warner has already taken a subtle but significant step back in its HD-DVD support. While they have not dropped previously announced titles (a la Paramount), they have begun to stagger the HD-DVD releases while retaining concurrent release dates for the DVD and Blu-ray versions. For example, I Am Legend is due out on DVD and Blu-ray on March 18, while the HD-DVD version will not come out until "early April." Also, Twister: Special Edition comes out May 6 on DVD and Blu-ray, while the HD-DVD version hits stores three weeks later on May 27.
Also, a Home Media article refers to a preliminary tabulation of last week's Nielson sales data. Again, not a good sign for HD-DVD. Apparently, last week's sales figures show HD-DVD with only a 15% market share of HD discs. This is significant because 1) last week was the first full sales week after Warner's announcement; and 2) this is the biggest one-week sales lead that Blu-ray has had.
If this holds up in the final tabulation, then it's safe to say that the Warner announcement has already reverberated down to the retail level, in effect stopping HD-DVD sales cold. If consumers have already stopped purchasing HD-DVDs, then it won't take long before retailers begin phasing out their HD-DVD sections (if they haven't already). At that point, it won't matter what Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal decide on HD-DVD, the retailers and consumers will have already made the decision for them.
I am going to leak something here, but I can. I have strong word within the BDA itself that a certain very large big box store will be going blu as well. The deal is not inked yet, but I hear after the Warner announcement, negotiations got quite a bit more positive.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
I am going to leak something here, but I can. I have strong word within the BDA itself that a certain very large big box store will be going blu as well. The deal is not inked yet, but I hear after the Warner announcement, negotiations got quite a bit more positive.
I'm betting on Wally world. I haven't seen a single HD-DVD player in their store since the big $99 blow out.
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Blu light specials!!!
Get it? :biggrin5:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich-n-Texas
Blu light specials!!!
Get it? :biggrin5:
Thats what I'm waiting for.
I actually went into Circuit to get a Sony Blu, but they said the sale was off, so I told them
I would wait.
If its over for porn as far as HD is concerned, thats it, nobody likes to admit it but porn is a
major driving force for any new format, the slow adoption of porn in the laser format is what killed it.
The British have an expression, "tits up" for something thats dead, a saying that certainly seems apropo in more ways than one in this situation:1:
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Ok.... I can't believe I'm sticking my foot in a format war thread... but here goes:
Isn't the biggest threat to either format not each other or even traditional DVD, but downloadable content?
I think both HD DVD and Blu Ray shoud be sweating now that Apple TV will be allowing consumers to buy/rent HD Movies from the comfort of their sofa. And I don't think apple wiil be the last company to provide such a service... I really think that downloads are in and physical media is on the slow crawl out (or at least to a niche market, much like vinyl)... I don't think the current MP3/4 generation is really that interested in a stack of optical discs lying around the sofa when they can just have it all stored in a tiny box attached to the tv...
As for porn.... I don't think it really matters whether HD DVD or Blu Ray adopts/doesn't adopt porn anymore... that was a major sales driver in the 80s but far less so now.... Yes porn viewing will and probably always will be a massive market, but I strongly suspect that most of the porn consumed today is downloaded/streamed (whether paid for or pirated)...
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There's The Gun..
AND............
WE'RE OFF...
HD-DVD takes the early lead....
Blu-Ray is coming up fast...
Downloads are threatening...
HD stumbles..
Blu takes the lead...
Downloads still trailing...
HD buys off one of the judges and pulls ahead again...
Blu stays steady...
Downloads fighting with a flicker...
HD!
Blu-Ray!
Downloads!
HD stumbles again!
Blu runs it down and kicks it on the way...
Downloads move past HD.
Blu-Ray!
Downloads!
HD trailing off...
Dust is everywhere!
Who can see who's ahead?
It's..
It's...
To be continued.
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Wooch,
I thought that this wasn't the porn industry's choice. Wasn't it Sony that played the prude card and said no smut on our disks? I know there are loopholes, but if Sony holds to that line, then porn may be without a hi def home - viagra for the proponents of downloading, if you ask me.
And I know, it's been said, but I just don't see people wanting their smut in hi-def. I'm guessing that most porn is "consumed" by single people who aren't really about enjoying it on a big screen with an audience. This is really one type on content that lends itself ideally to a digital, compressed, small-screen medium and not hi-def.
Maybe it would be in the BR consortium's interest to relax it's conservative stance and allow porn on it's disks, just to stem the tide to the online alternative....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nightflier
I thought that this wasn't the porn industry's choice. Wasn't it Sony that played the prude card and said no smut on our disks? I know there are loopholes, but if Sony holds to that line, then porn may be without a hi def home - viagra for the proponents of downloading, if you ask me.
All that Sony said was that they would not accept any adults only jobs at their Blu-ray replicating facilities, which is nothing more than an extension of a long-standing policy that they have had in place for their DVD replicating lines. Sony's not the only Blu-ray replicator out there, and Sony exercises no control over what duplicating jobs the other Blu-ray replicators take. Apparently, plenty of HD porn titles have already rolled out on Blu-ray, so there's no shortage of takers out there.
How this got twisted into a "no porn on Blu-ray; porn on HD-DVD will win the format war just like VHS beat Betamax because of porn" story is just another example of how facts get bent when viewed through fanboi lenses.
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Originally Posted by nightflier
And I know, it's been said, but I just don't see people wanting their smut in hi-def. I'm guessing that most porn is "consumed" by single people who aren't really about enjoying it on a big screen with an audience. This is really one type on content that lends itself ideally to a digital, compressed, small-screen medium and not hi-def.
Maybe it would be in the BR consortium's interest to relax it's conservative stance and allow porn on it's disks, just to stem the tide to the online alternative....
Nothing to do with a conservative stances, porn on Blu-ray is already out there and apparently outselling the HD-DVD versions. Whether or not people want to actually see porn in HD is another story altogether.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMichael
I'm betting on Wally world. I haven't seen a single HD-DVD player in their store since the big $99 blow out.
I'm thinking Best Buy. The 2 near me has gone from 50/50 to 70/30 shelf space in favor of Bluray.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
Ok.... I can't believe I'm sticking my foot in a format war thread... but here goes:
Isn't the biggest threat to either format not each other or even traditional DVD, but downloadable content?
Why can't you believe it? Here you are.
As I've pointed out several times, downloadable content does not threaten disc media so long as the files themselves are locked down with usage limitations and expiration dates. With those limits in place, downloads are nothing more than an extension of the PPV, VOD, and rental markets. The DVD has turned the home video market into a purchase-driven market, where consumers expect to keep the content that they purchase and have unlimited access.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
I think both HD DVD and Blu Ray shoud be sweating now that Apple TV will be allowing consumers to buy/rent HD Movies from the comfort of their sofa. And I don't think apple wiil be the last company to provide such a service... I really think that downloads are in and physical media is on the slow crawl out (or at least to a niche market, much like vinyl)... I don't think the current MP3/4 generation is really that interested in a stack of optical discs lying around the sofa when they can just have it all stored in a tiny box attached to the tv...
And how different is Apple TV from any of the other PPV and VOD options currently available? There is a measure of selection and convenience that Apple adds to the market, but fundamentally they are not all that different from services that are already on the market.
Remember who holds the keys to the content -- the studios. Disc media is a high margin, low cost product with an established distribution network. Downloads are an unproven market, with lower revenue per transaction and a Balkanized distribution network with separate deals and conditions having to be negotiated with each distributor. Apple is a significant player in this market, but they're a big fish in a little pond. The 24-hour viewing limit on their new Apple TV movie downloads is an indication that they currently hold little sway with the studios, otherwise why would Apple agree to these kinds of restrictions? Until downloading can demonstrate much greater revenue potential, the studios will continue to give priority to retail sell-through products.
As far as the "tiny boxes" go, how many movies can an Apple TV unit store? In high def, an 80 GB unit will run out of space in a hurry. If consumers have to keep deleting movies in order to watch new ones, then this is no substitute for a "stack of optical discs" since those "tiny boxes" would only place a very short stack of those optical discs.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
Why can't you believe it? Here you are.
lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
As I've pointed out several times, downloadable content does not threaten disc media so long as the files themselves are locked down with usage limitations and expiration dates. With those limits in place, downloads are nothing more than an extension of the PPV, VOD, and rental markets. The DVD has turned the home video market into a purchase-driven market, where consumers expect to keep the content that they purchase and have unlimited access
And how different is Apple TV from any of the other PPV and VOD options currently available? There is a measure of selection and convenience that Apple adds to the market, but fundamentally they are not all that different from services that are already on the market.
Remember who holds the keys to the content -- the studios. Disc media is a high margin, low cost product with an established distribution network. Downloads are an unproven market, with lower revenue per transaction and a Balkanized distribution network with separate deals and conditions having to be negotiated with each distributor. Apple is a significant player in this market, but they're a big fish in a little pond. The 24-hour viewing limit on their new Apple TV movie downloads is an indication that they currently hold little sway with the studios, otherwise why would Apple agree to these kinds of restrictions? Until downloading can demonstrate much greater revenue potential, the studios will continue to give priority to retail sell-through products.
Agreed, but I am looking at the format war as being very long term as it will take years for a new standard to emerge. I don't expect usage limitations to be a long term issue - just take the recent trend towards non-DRM tracks on i-tunes... most likely the studios will just charge premiums for content without limitations....
Right now Apple TV may only be a rental site for HD and hence just like VOD or PPV but I suspect they will move towards actual sales just as they do with music.
Also, Expiration dates are only for rentals, so it won't be an issue with purchased content...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
As far as the "tiny boxes" go, how many movies can an Apple TV unit store? In high def, an 80 GB unit will run out of space in a hurry. If consumers have to keep deleting movies in order to watch new ones, then this is no substitute for a "stack of optical discs" since those "tiny boxes" would only place a very short stack of those optical discs.
I think they have 40 and 160 GB units :)
Seriously though, you should keep in mind one other factor when talking about storage - downloaded content is not limited to the apple tv unit... it has wireless access to your computer and network storage devices.... so you can add as much storage as you want... And in-line with my long term theme, storage becomes less of an issue each year as hard-drives get larger and cheaper....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
lol
Agreed, but I am looking at the format war as being very long term as it will take years for a new standard to emerge. I don't expect usage limitations to be a long term issue - just take the recent trend towards non-DRM tracks on i-tunes... most likely the studios will just charge premiums for content without limitations....
This format war is pretty much through now. Before the end of the year all the studio will be selling movies on bluray disc. I can tell you right now and this is a fact. Paramount is going neutral SOONER than you think. Universal may not make a move until the fall, but Paramount has essentially gotten out of its exclusive clause with the Warner move.
You will not see MOVIE content without DRM for a long while. The studio are much too deep in a piracy mindset, that I believe the trend will be toward more DRM than less. Consider the fact that BR disc are locked down with already compromised AACS, uncracked BD+, and BD watermark. The studio are just too paranoid about releasing content unlock. Unlike music, the value of film has a very long life.
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Right now Apple TV may only be a rental site for HD and hence just like VOD or PPV but I suspect they will move towards actual sales just as they do with music.
It will be quite a while before the sales of downloads becomes feasible. Unlike a disc, downloads cannot be transferred between devices even after it is sold. You can play a bluray disc on any bluray player. Secondly the business stinks right now, as Google, Walmart and another download business(cannot remember the name) have all closed or gone under trying to sell downloads. A feasible business model just is not there, especially as long as discs are being sold. Remember, the culture has been buy and own since the late nineties. It isn't going to change in two years. It is going to be a while before the average person is going to be comfortable paying for downloaded non physical files.
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Also, Expiration dates are only for rentals, so it won't be an issue with purchased content...
Yes, but non portability will be an issue.
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Seriously though, you should keep in mind one other factor when talking about storage - downloaded content is not limited to the apple tv unit... it has wireless access to your computer and network storage devices.... so you can add as much storage as you want... And in-line with my long term theme, storage becomes less of an issue each year as hard-drives get larger and cheaper....
This really is not where the culture is at. Survey after survey the Hollywood studios have conducted shows that the public is still attached to the disc for its convience. You pull it out of the case, put it into the player, and press play. The public is not ready to maintian alot of primary drives and backup drives to keep their collections managed. Putting a Bluray disc on a shelf is much more manageable to most folks at this moment. This will change in the future as young people(who use computers from birth) become adults and bring the culture shift with them. We are just not at that threshold just yet.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
..... Putting a Bluray disc on a shelf is much more manageable to most folks at this moment. This will change in the future as young people(who use computers from birth) become adults and bring the culture shift with them. We are just not at that threshold just yet.
Agreed.... I expect the sale of discs to continue for many years... but eventually downloads will win out...
Also.... I'm not sure how important Blu Ray conquering HD-DVD actually will be... I still see this war much like the SACD vs DVD-A war.... pretty much going nowhere... Both SACD and DVD-A have become niche market products and neither are likely to ever replace the redbook CD as the optical disc standard.... Even if Blu Ray totally annihilates HD-DVD this year, I doubt it will be able to overtake traditional DVDs as the new standard (not unless it manages to sell both players and discs at the exact same price as standard dvds)....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
Agreed, but I am looking at the format war as being very long term as it will take years for a new standard to emerge. I don't expect usage limitations to be a long term issue - just take the recent trend towards non-DRM tracks on i-tunes... most likely the studios will just charge premiums for content without limitations....
Terrence already addressed most of these issues. Within a few years, we'll know whether Blu-ray supplants the DVD format. I doubt that the download market will have taken off by that point. It's naive to think that the movie studios will take the locks off of their content if sell-through products remain their most profitable niche.
I would add that the video market has a very different orientation than the audio market. Audio has been evolving towards increasing mobility and portability for the better part of 50 years. MP3s, iPods, etc. are simply the latest incarnation of a process that began with the successive introductions of portable record players, car audio systems, boomboxes, Walkmans, cassette players, and 8-tracks.
Video by its nature does not demand portability. If you look at the current trends, it's dominated by increased screen sizes and resolution. Hardly the push towards mobility that you see on the audio side, where the iPod dominates.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
I think they have 40 and 160 GB units :)
And even 160 GB can only displace a very limited number of discs when we're talking about HD. Consider that a Blu-ray disc holds about 50 GB, so that Apple TV either has to dial up the compression (and compromise the video quality), or compromise the audio quality (which they already do, as Apple TV is only now getting into 5.1 audio), or eliminate the bonus features (which they already do).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
Seriously though, you should keep in mind one other factor when talking about storage - downloaded content is not limited to the apple tv unit... it has wireless access to your computer and network storage devices.... so you can add as much storage as you want... And in-line with my long term theme, storage becomes less of an issue each year as hard-drives get larger and cheaper....
But, if the content has to be registered to a playback device (like all other VOD, PPV, and other downloaded content is required to), then it won't matter how big a hard drive you have if there's no easy and open path to get that stored content over to your TV, unless you have a computer hooked up to it.
You say this is long-term, and I agree. But, I think the time frame for any kind of online setup to replace disc media goes beyond Blu-ray's shelf life.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
Also.... I'm not sure how important Blu Ray conquering HD-DVD actually will be... I still see this war much like the SACD vs DVD-A war.... pretty much going nowhere... Both SACD and DVD-A have become niche market products and neither are likely to ever replace the redbook CD as the optical disc standard.... Even if Blu Ray totally annihilates HD-DVD this year, I doubt it will be able to overtake traditional DVDs as the new standard (not unless it manages to sell both players and discs at the exact same price as standard dvds)....
The tired comparisons between Blu-ray/HD-DVD and SACD/DVD-A do not apply for one critical reason -- the movie studios are solidly behind HD disc media, whereas the record companies' support for DVD-A and SACD was tepid at best. The movie studios have been scheduling concurrent day-and-date releases for their major DVD and Blu-ray/HD-DVD titles, while the record companies issued hardly any SACDs or DVD-As at the same time as the CDs. Studio support is crucial, and given how DVD sales fell for the first time last year, the studios are looking to recoup DVD sales losses by transitioning consumers to Blu-ray as quickly as possible.
I think the DVD transition will occur as people replace their old DVD players with combo Blu-ray players. Once Blu-ray players dip below $200, then the sales will pick up and at that point I think demand for Blu-ray will pick up for new releases.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
I would add that the video market has a very different orientation than the audio market. Audio has been evolving towards increasing mobility and portability for the better part of 50 years. MP3s, iPods, etc. are simply the latest incarnation of a process that began with the successive introductions of portable record players, car audio systems, boomboxes, Walkmans, cassette players, and 8-tracks.
Video by its nature does not demand portability. If you look at the current trends, it's dominated by increased screen sizes and resolution. Hardly the push towards mobility that you see on the audio side, where the iPod dominates.
While I agree with the comments about increasing screen sizes and resolutions being the trend in video... keep in mind that all of these increases in sizes and res have come hand in hand with decreasing costs each year... 2 years ago a 52 inch lcd projection tv and most 32 inch LCDS were selling for around $2K, now they can be had for around $1k (the new models, not used ones!). The audio market has not been nearly as advanced in pushing higher quality products at lower prices (quite possibly because audio companies often use a 5 year shelf life for their products while TV models are upgraded every year OR the audio companies are just greedy and lazy).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
You say this is long-term, and I agree. But, I think the time frame for any kind of online setup to replace disc media goes beyond Blu-ray's shelf life.
That is possible, since blu-ray has already been around for a few years and if it fails to supplant standard dvds, then its shelf life may be even shorter...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
The tired comparisons between Blu-ray/HD-DVD and SACD/DVD-A do not apply for one critical reason -- the movie studios are solidly behind HD disc media, whereas the record companies' support for DVD-A and SACD was tepid at best. The movie studios have been scheduling concurrent day-and-date releases for their major DVD and Blu-ray/HD-DVD titles, while the record companies issued hardly any SACDs or DVD-As at the same time as the CDs. Studio support is crucial, and given how DVD sales fell for the first time last year, the studios are looking to recoup DVD sales losses by transitioning consumers to Blu-ray as quickly as possible.
I think the DVD transition will occur as people replace their old DVD players with combo Blu-ray players. Once Blu-ray players dip below $200, then the sales will pick up and at that point I think demand for Blu-ray will pick up for new releases.
While I see the relevance of studio support and agree that the new video formats have far more studio support than the audio formats have, I think they KEY factor is the consumer and not the studios.... Blu-Ray/HD-DVD are still luxury products (since dvd is still much cheaper).... Studios can push an expensive format all they want, but it doesn't mean anything unless the customers are willing to purchase it....
I agree wholeheartedly with the point about players dropping below $200 increasing sales... but keep in mind that consumers (not all, but a very significant portion) like lower prices... so as I've said before... when HD format sell for the price of regular dvd products then they can easily take over the dvd market (as long as they accomplish that before downloads take off).
The Trend in video is a good one and hopefully will continue: better reslolution and larger scale at decreasing prices - once Blu-Ray and HD-DVD catch up with this trend (lower prices) then they may have a chance to supplant DVD before downloads takes over the market.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
While I agree with the comments about increasing screen sizes and resolutions being the trend in video... keep in mind that all of these increases in sizes and res have come hand in hand with decreasing costs each year... 2 years ago a 52 inch lcd projection tv and most 32 inch LCDS were selling for around $2K, now they can be had for around $1k (the new models, not used ones!). The audio market has not been nearly as advanced in pushing higher quality products at lower prices (quite possibly because audio companies often use a 5 year shelf life for their products while TV models are upgraded every year OR the audio companies are just greedy and lazy).
Television technology marches forward, and as it does, prices come down. As consumers buy up these things like hot cakes, the forces of economy of scale kicks in. The Walkman portable cassette and CD players benefitted from this. The video world has benefitted from this with each successive format that has come out. Whether you are taling televisions, DVD or bluray players. This only works if the industry is healthy, and the music industry is not very healthy right now. You are correct in two areas. The record companies are greedy, and that greed is fueling alot of fear, and they do use a 5 year shelf life.
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That is possible, since blu-ray has already been around for a few years and if it fails to supplant standard dvds, then its shelf life may be even shorter...
Funny thing is, they said this about the DVD when VHS was king. The easist way to get the public to embrace bluray is to slowly de-emphasize the DVD. By releasing the bluray first with interactive features and other content the DVD will not have, heavily promoting this along with the fact its HD, you can get the public to gravite towards it while not endangering DVD sales to those who are not ready to make the switch. Keep in mind, the studios and the CE manufacturers have been through this transition before. This is how they did the VHS to DVD transition.
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While I see the relevance of studio support and agree that the new video formats have far more studio support than the audio formats have, I think they KEY factor is the consumer and not the studios.... Blu-Ray/HD-DVD are still luxury products (since dvd is still much cheaper).... Studios can push an expensive format all they want, but it doesn't mean anything unless the customers are willing to purchase it....
VHS was much cheaper than DVD in the beginning. As the economy of scale kicked in, that change pretty dramatically. My first DVD player was a $1200 first generation Toshiba 3008. It couldn't even do Dts. In less than two years most DVD players were about $500. At CES almost all of the new models were priced under $500. You can find a Sony S300 for $268 on Amazon. That same player was $499 three months ago. You can find a Samsung 1400 for $288 online, and four months ago it was $599. As each generation comes online, the preceeding generation prices drop considerably. Interestingly enough, the price drop of bluray players has come alot quicker than the prices of DVD players at this same time in its history. Time doesn't freeze, and neither do prices of CE.
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I agree wholeheartedly with the point about players dropping below $200 increasing sales... but keep in mind that consumers (not all, but a very significant portion) like lower prices... so as I've said before... when HD format sell for the price of regular dvd products then they can easily take over the dvd market (as long as they accomplish that before downloads take off).
Isn't apple a pretty sucessful company? Let's face it their computers are not cheaper than their competition, they are more expensive. But Apple is doing well, very well. The public will pay for what they want, regardless of price. HD DVD came out of the gate cheaper than bluray. Inspite of this there were more Bluray players sold in December leading up to christmas than HD DVD players. Even the bluray enable PS3 which was at one time more expensive than most HD DVD players outsold them all.
According to every analyst that covers the film and video industry says that downloading to own has years to go. The market for rentals is pretty stagnant in terms of revenue, and while demand is there for computer savvy folks, the general public has not shown much interest in letting go those disc.
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The Trend in video is a good one and hopefully will continue: better reslolution and larger scale at decreasing prices - once Blu-Ray and HD-DVD catch up with this trend (lower prices) then they may have a chance to supplant DVD before downloads takes over the market.
Apparently the studio believe the latter. I know the studios( and the one I work for in particular) have done extensive research on the feasible of switching to downloading, and the research at this point is very negative and looks that way for at least 5-10 years. You just cannot erase a culture of disc purchasing(going back to vinyl) in a few short years. That kind of culture shift will take decades.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
lol
Agreed, but I am looking at the format war as being very long term as it will take years for a new standard to emerge. I don't expect usage limitations to be a long term issue - just take the recent trend towards non-DRM tracks on i-tunes... most likely the studios will just charge premiums for content without limitations....
Right now Apple TV may only be a rental site for HD and hence just like VOD or PPV but I suspect they will move towards actual sales just as they do with music.
Also, Expiration dates are only for rentals, so it won't be an issue with purchased content...
I think they have 40 and 160 GB units :)
Seriously though, you should keep in mind one other factor when talking about storage - downloaded content is not limited to the apple tv unit... it has wireless access to your computer and network storage devices.... so you can add as much storage as you want... And in-line with my long term theme, storage becomes less of an issue each year as hard-drives get larger and cheaper....
the hard drive size doesnt matter , most of vod and downloads will be gone 24hrs after you watch them.
And you're right, the future of rental at least is downloading, and work is ongoing to
set up a business model whereby you can collect movies, they are just stored on servers,
you dont have to worry about "upgrading" to 2,000p, JUST GET A 2000P display
and you can choose 2000 p whenever you watch a movie.
But you will never convince sir talky of this , he is totally oblivious, which figures since he works for Sony, a company that is known for its exelent tech and lousey marketing.
You think 1080p is the end? The idea is to sell everybody a 1080p player, them when 2000p
is debuted in a decade , sell new players and discs to people, just like with DVD.
The idea is to keep selling players and discs, at least thats the idea for dinosaur companies that dont realize that the asteroid of downloading and a wired world has hit:1:
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
While I agree with the comments about increasing screen sizes and resolutions being the trend in video... keep in mind that all of these increases in sizes and res have come hand in hand with decreasing costs each year... 2 years ago a 52 inch lcd projection tv and most 32 inch LCDS were selling for around $2K, now they can be had for around $1k (the new models, not used ones!). The audio market has not been nearly as advanced in pushing higher quality products at lower prices (quite possibly because audio companies often use a 5 year shelf life for their products while TV models are upgraded every year OR the audio companies are just greedy and lazy).
But, you're making my point here. The trend on the video side is towards larger screen sizes and higher resolutions at more affordable price points. It further entrenches the home living room/media room as the primary viewing place for video content.
The audio side is all about mobility. The iPod sales alone more than TRIPLED the revenue for all home audio components COMBINED. The innovation there is in increasing the functionality and utility of downloaded and ripped audio content. And like I said, that's nothing more than a continuation of a trend towards mobility that's been ongoing in the audio industry for the better part of 50 years.
The video side sees no such move towards mobility. Yes, there are more portable devices that can play downloaded videos, but that capability does not drive sales, whereas larger screens and higher resolutions are driving sales.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
That is possible, since blu-ray has already been around for a few years and if it fails to supplant standard dvds, then its shelf life may be even shorter...
What calendar are you reading? The first Blu-ray players came out less than 2 years ago. And the format war is only now getting sorted out, so the big market push for Blu-ray hasn't even begun yet. But, even so, it's still much further along than any of the downloading plans out there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
While I see the relevance of studio support and agree that the new video formats have far more studio support than the audio formats have, I think they KEY factor is the consumer and not the studios.... Blu-Ray/HD-DVD are still luxury products (since dvd is still much cheaper).... Studios can push an expensive format all they want, but it doesn't mean anything unless the customers are willing to purchase it....
Of course the key factor is the consumer, but without studio support, the consumers are a nonfactor.
As for Blu-ray/HD-DVD being luxury products, what's your criteria? HD-DVD players are readily available for under $200, and Blu-ray players are already below $300. When the DVD players began outselling VCRs, DVD players still cost more than $200. Were DVD players still "luxury products" when they outsold VHS?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
I agree wholeheartedly with the point about players dropping below $200 increasing sales... but keep in mind that consumers (not all, but a very significant portion) like lower prices... so as I've said before... when HD format sell for the price of regular dvd products then they can easily take over the dvd market (as long as they accomplish that before downloads take off).
Of course, consumers like lower prices, but keep in mind that Blu-ray/HD-DVD price declines have already occurred at far sharper rates than when the DVD format was introduced. But, for Blu-ray to supplant the DVD format does not require that Blu-ray players to price match what DVD players cost.
If consumers perceive greater value in Blu-ray's higher resolution and enhanced features, then they will pay for it. After all, the DVD format took over from VHS when VCRs were selling for less than $100 or about half of what DVD players cost. The DVD format took over because consumers saw the extra value that the DVD format represented, and willingly paid for it.
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
But, you're making my point here. The trend on the video side is towards larger screen sizes and higher resolutions at more affordable price points. It further entrenches the home living room/media room as the primary viewing place for video content.
The audio side is all about mobility. The iPod sales alone more than TRIPLED the revenue for all home audio components COMBINED. The innovation there is in increasing the functionality and utility of downloaded and ripped audio content. And like I said, that's nothing more than a continuation of a trend towards mobility that's been ongoing in the audio industry for the better part of 50 years.
The video side sees no such move towards mobility. Yes, there are more portable devices that can play downloaded videos, but that capability does not drive sales, whereas larger screens and higher resolutions are driving sales.
I don't think we disagree on this point. Video is mostly about 'bigger and better' with only a small emphasis on 'portable and convenient', while audio is generally the reverse (with audiophiles driving the bigger and better segment of the market).
But I'm just not convinced that this as a result of consumers being willing to pay for 'bigger and better' or whether it is as a result of the fact that 'bigger and better' keeps getting cheaper and more available.
I see it much like a consumer looking to buy a new car, imagine that you have a budget of 15K and instead of the usual Corolla and Civic options you can now get a BMW 3 Or a Mercedes C class... I think you might well just buy the BMW/Mercedes... now if the BMW/Mercedes were 30K you'd probably just stick with the Civic/Corolla...
Video has tended to be like this... I bought a 52 Inch Panasonic LCD Projection about 2 years ago... despite the fact that I've always been more into audio than video... but because of the falling prices on tvs, I found that a large screen was in my budget, so I bought it... Now had it remained at the much higher prices of just a few years before then I would have gladly settled with a 27inch tv...
I think Video is mostly about price (yes VHS is to some extent an exception, but I'll deal with that further down).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
What calendar are you reading? The first Blu-ray players came out less than 2 years ago. And the format war is only now getting sorted out, so the big market push for Blu-ray hasn't even begun yet. But, even so, it's still much further along than any of the downloading plans out there.
Ok.... I'll stand corrected.... I used a few to mean 2 as I pretty much just rounded up the figure (cuz I was sure Blu Ray had been around for more than a year but was feeling too lazy to go research an exact figure...)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
Of course the key factor is the consumer, but without studio support, the consumers are a nonfactor.
As for Blu-ray/HD-DVD being luxury products, what's your criteria? HD-DVD players are readily available for under $200, and Blu-ray players are already below $300. When the DVD players began outselling VCRs, DVD players still cost more than $200. Were DVD players still "luxury products" when they outsold VHS?
Of course, consumers like lower prices, but keep in mind that Blu-ray/HD-DVD price declines have already occurred at far sharper rates than when the DVD format was introduced. But, for Blu-ray to supplant the DVD format does not require that Blu-ray players to price match what DVD players cost.
If consumers perceive greater value in Blu-ray's higher resolution and enhanced features, then they will pay for it. After all, the DVD format took over from VHS when VCRs were selling for less than $100 or about half of what DVD players cost. The DVD format took over because consumers saw the extra value that the DVD format represented, and willingly paid for it.
Now as for VHS vs DVD... as much as you despise the music comparisons... it is much like Cassettes and CDs.... in both cases you were dealing with more than just an inferior picture/sound.... video/sound quality were not the only factors in making optical discs (digital) dominant over analog sources....
Digital offered significant new convenience in both audio and video:
1) Track/Scene selection -> Not having to hit fast forward/rewind to find a scene/song was a major breakthrough on the convenience front.
2) The product was more durable (analog sources tended to degrade over time) - Try watching a VHS over and over, versus watching a DVD over and over....
3) Portability/storage - it's much easier to carry a case full of cds in the car than a stack of cassettes... and a stack of dvds still takes up far less space than a stack of VHS tapes...
While HD-DVD/BLU-RAY/SACD/DVD-A Versus DVD/CD are just a case of digital versus better digital.... so it is a very different war from the earlier analog versus digital one....
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
the hard drive size doesnt matter , most of vod and downloads will be gone 24hrs after you watch them.
And you're right, the future of rental at least is downloading, and work is ongoing to
set up a business model whereby you can collect movies, they are just stored on servers,
you dont have to worry about "upgrading" to 2,000p, JUST GET A 2000P display
and you can choose 2000 p whenever you watch a movie.
But you will never convince sir talky of this , he is totally oblivious, which figures since he works for Sony, a company that is known for its exelent tech and lousey marketing.
You think 1080p is the end? The idea is to sell everybody a 1080p player, them when 2000p
is debuted in a decade , sell new players and discs to people, just like with DVD.
The idea is to keep selling players and discs, at least thats the idea for dinosaur companies that dont realize that the asteroid of downloading and a wired world has hit:1:
Hey pixel brain, are you SURE I work for Sony, or are you just guessing? I think you are just guessing because I do not work for Sony at all.
Secondly 2000p( which is really 2160p) is much more suited for movie theaters than hometheater. You need a REALLY large screen size to realize the benefits of 2160p, not to mention a huge pipeline for the signals, and ultra large storage to hold it. 2160p does not make any sense for the home.
Your last statement is stupid as hell. When you have a $42 billion dollar market in disc sales, and a $200 million market in downloads, only an idiot would chose to support downloads. Downloading as a everyday practice is not here yet, and won't be for at least a decade. Informed and knowledgeable folks know this, and some little kid doing armchair analysis need to learn this.
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
HD-DVD's uphill battle seems to get steeper and steeper as the news stacks up.
Wow, not too long ago, the HD-DVD proponents were declaring that porn would turn the tide against Blu-ray, arguing that porn helped VHS get over on Betamax. Given how the sales trends have gone (i.e., Blu-ray outselling HD-DVD every week in 2007), that has not happened. Even though a lot has been written about Sony not accepting Blu-ray duplicating jobs for porn titles, porn titles have already gone out on Blu-ray, so some other duplicating houses are accepting the porn jobs.
Well, now it turns out that porn studios are seeing the market shifts and might be ready to abandon HD-DVD. Apparently, the talk at the AVN porn convention (which overlaps CES) centered on studios abandoning HD-DVD. Digital Playground, purportedly the leading HD porn distributor, is apparently set to drop HD-DVD by the end of the year.
http://www.i4u.com/article14003.html
Other not-so-favorable signs for HD-DVD have also cropped up.
Aside from the persistent rumors about Universal and Paramount, Warner has already taken a subtle but significant step back in its HD-DVD support. While they have not dropped previously announced titles (a la Paramount), they have begun to stagger the HD-DVD releases while retaining concurrent release dates for the DVD and Blu-ray versions. For example, I Am Legend is due out on DVD and Blu-ray on March 18, while the HD-DVD version will not come out until "early April." Also, Twister: Special Edition comes out May 6 on DVD and Blu-ray, while the HD-DVD version hits stores three weeks later on May 27.
Also, a Home Media article refers to a preliminary tabulation of last week's Nielson sales data. Again, not a good sign for HD-DVD. Apparently, last week's sales figures show HD-DVD with only a 15% market share of HD discs. This is significant because 1) last week was the first full sales week after Warner's announcement; and 2) this is the biggest one-week sales lead that Blu-ray has had.
If this holds up in the final tabulation, then it's safe to say that the Warner announcement has already reverberated down to the retail level, in effect stopping HD-DVD sales cold. If consumers have already stopped purchasing HD-DVDs, then it won't take long before retailers begin phasing out their HD-DVD sections (if they haven't already). At that point, it won't matter what Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal decide on HD-DVD, the retailers and consumers will have already made the decision for them.
Great info, now empty you PM box, you have mail bro bro!
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Hey pixel brain, are you SURE I work for Sony, or are you just guessing? I think you are just guessing because I do not work for Sony at all.
Secondly 2000p( which is really 2160p) is much more suited for movie theaters than hometheater. You need a REALLY large screen size to realize the benefits of 2160p, not to mention a huge pipeline for the signals, and ultra large storage to hold it. 2160p does not make any sense for the home.
Your last statement is stupid as hell. When you have a $42 billion dollar market in disc sales, and a $200 million market in downloads, only an idiot would chose to support downloads. Downloading as a everyday practice is not here yet, and won't be for at least a decade. Informed and knowledgeable folks know this, and some little kid doing armchair analysis need to learn this.
How about a 51 year old man who is a veteran of "format" wars?
I REMEMBER just a few years ago , a 15in LCD was 2 grand, 1080p was a "decade"
away, and would be damn expensive then, and solid state storage of media was a fantasy
Today you can get an LCD 42IN FOR 800 bucks in some places, in between posting on this site I AM DOWNLOADING MY ENTIRE music video and CD collection onto a 320 gig harddrive I BOUGHT FOR 99 BUCKS.
And you can buy a completely solid state camcorder for 150 bucks on qvc.
And no downloading isnt the future, and we will never get into WWII (said on dec 6, 1941)
I download everyday, and so do you, you just dont see it as downloading.
Ever hear of youtube? episodes of TV you can catch up on on the networks websites?
Four years ago I had gigs of movies, tv shows , music vids, you name it, on my computer.
The world is no longer frames, musical notes, etc, its ones and zeros.
Its not silver nitrate, its silicon.
And its not a plastic disc , its a hard drive.
The world doesnt turn on a dime, but the astute can see which direction in which its going,
and the expensive process of making a disc and shipping it somewhere will seem quite silly when you can push a button and see every movie ever made, anytime you want.
Which is basically where the music industry is NOW.
And just like broadcast tv followed broadcast radio, and videocassettes followed
records and CD's, so downloading of video will follow downloading of music.
Indeed its already taking place:1:
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
How about a 51 year old man who is a veteran of "format" wars?
I REMEMBER just a few years ago , a 15in LCD was 2 grand, 1080p was a "decade"
away, and would be damn expensive then, and solid state storage of media was a fantasy
Today you can get an LCD 42IN FOR 800 bucks in some places, in between posting on this site I AM DOWNLOADING MY ENTIRE music video and CD collection onto a 320 gig harddrive I BOUGHT FOR 99 BUCKS.
And you can buy a completely solid state camcorder for 150 bucks on qvc.
And no downloading isnt the future, and we will never get into WWII (said on dec 6, 1941)
I download everyday, and so do you, you just dont see it as downloading.
Ever hear of youtube? episodes of TV you can catch up on on the networks websites?
Four years ago I had gigs of movies, tv shows , music vids, you name it, on my computer.
The world is no longer frames, musical notes, etc, its ones and zeros.
Its not silver nitrate, its silicon.
And its not a plastic disc , its a hard drive.
The world doesnt turn on a dime, but the astute can see which direction in which its going,
and the expensive process of making a disc and shipping it somewhere will seem quite silly when you can push a button and see every movie ever made, anytime you want.
Which is basically where the music industry is NOW.
And just like broadcast tv followed broadcast radio, and videocassettes followed
records and CD's, so downloading of video will follow downloading of music.
Indeed its already taking place:1:
:thumbsup:
I think many people fail to realize just how widespread downloading is.... the issue is not whether downloading will take off (it already has) but how to move people from illegal to legitimate downloading.
-
"Sand to Silicon"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pix
Its not silver nitrate, its silicon.
And you can thank Texas Instruments for that my friend! :thumbsup:
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
How about a 51 year old man who is a veteran of "format" wars?
You are older than myself and have not learned about civil discourse without the name calling? This is not a feather in your cap.
Quote:
I REMEMBER just a few years ago , a 15in LCD was 2 grand, 1080p was a "decade"
away, and would be damn expensive then, and solid state storage of media was a fantasy
Today you can get an LCD 42IN FOR 800 bucks in some places, in between posting on this site I AM DOWNLOADING MY ENTIRE music video and CD collection onto a 320 gig harddrive I BOUGHT FOR 99 BUCKS.
And you can buy a completely solid state camcorder for 150 bucks on qvc.
And no downloading isnt the future, and we will never get into WWII (said on dec 6, 1941)
This trip down memory lane has zero relevance to the topic at hand. What you are doing, what Nighliar is doing, and what I am doing does not reflect what the rest of America is doing. You have to look at the trends, and downloading software, passing music, doing research online and surfing, are not the same as downloading a movie to a hometheater and watching it. There is no trend that point to that. Downloading a television show that was free on network televsion is not the same thing. Trading bootleg files is not the same thing. Storing music is one thing(I have three hard drives full of music) but storing a movie file that has the elements of the disc is not a widespread thing. Until it becomes one, the studio will not release content this way.
Quote:
I download everyday, and so do you, you just dont see it as downloading.
Ever hear of youtube? episodes of TV you can catch up on on the networks websites?
Four years ago I had gigs of movies, tv shows , music vids, you name it, on my computer.
I do not watch episodes of television on my computer. I do download youtube, but is that the same experience as looking at spidey 3 on my hometheater. I think not. Once again, what you do, and what all of America is doing is not the same. And to make the assumption its the same, is more irrogant than one can believe.
Quote:
The world is no longer frames, musical notes, etc, its ones and zeros.
Its been that way since the compact disc for music, and the DVD for films. Not anything new here.
Quote:
Its not silver nitrate, its silicon.
And its not a plastic disc , its a hard drive.
buggy before horse. When ALL of America has hard drives and no disc, then you can say this. To say this now means you live on another planet(which wouldn't surprise me one bit)
Quote:
The world doesnt turn on a dime, but the astute can see which direction in which its going,
and the expensive process of making a disc and shipping it somewhere will seem quite silly when you can push a button and see every movie ever made, anytime you want.
Which is basically where the music industry is NOW.
And just like broadcast tv followed broadcast radio, and videocassettes followed
records and CD's, so downloading of video will follow downloading of music.
Indeed its already taking place:1:
When the austute inform themselves on what the industry REALLY is doing, and not what they THINK its doing, they know that downloading movies to own is currently a disaster. Downloading for rentals is not making any headway against renting physical disc. You guys keep comparing movies with music and they are not the same. Music has a very short window of value, movies do not. The cost of producing an album is no where near the cost of creating a movie. The market for older music is fading fast, but the market for classic movies does not appear to be that way.
When we get to 2050, then maybe you have a point. You may know about downloading, but you do not know the movie industry at all. Follow the money guys, that is what they do. And the money is not in downloads, its in disc no matter haw draconian you think that is.
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajani
:thumbsup:
I think many people fail to realize just how widespread downloading is.... the issue is not whether downloading will take off (it already has) but how to move people from illegal to legitimate downloading.
the local blockbuster used to be packed on tuesday, and if you didnt get there early you wouldnt get the latest release.
Now, with hq VOD and services like netflix the local videostores are becoming ghost
towns of a sort.
I went to rent the latest bourne movie on release day, got there in the afternoon,
they had plenty of copies, this used to NEVER happen.
My comunity is diverse in types of peoples and cultures, it has always gotten things first,
to guage the market.
If Comcast is doing a marketing experiment with their state of the art fiber optic system they have a success:1:
-
Sir Terrence the Terrible]You are older than myself and have not learned about civil discourse without the name calling? This is not a feather in your cap.
I just call things as I see them
This trip down memory lane has zero relevance to the topic at hand. What you are doing, what Nighliar is doing, and what I am doing does not reflect what the rest of America is doing. You have to look at the trends, and downloading software, passing music, doing research online and surfing, are not the same as downloading a movie to a hometheater and watching it. There is no trend that point to that. Downloading a television show that was free on network televsion is not the same thing. Trading bootleg files is not the same thing. Storing music is one thing(I have three hard drives full of music) but storing a movie file that has the elements of the disc is not a widespread thing. Until it becomes one, the studio will not release content this way.
Who cares about "elements" of the disc"
I do not watch episodes of television on my computer. I do download youtube, but is that the same experience as looking at spidey 3 on my hometheater. I think not. Once again, what you do, and what all of America is doing is not the same. And to make the assumption its the same, is more irrogant than one can believe.
the first time Jericho was on it was like a serial. If I MISSED an episode I went to CBS.com and caught up, sometimes I went to the TV section of my VOD AND WATCHED IT IN hd, FOR FREE.
Funny how nobodies doing this stuff but it remains available, guess these dumb corp
types arent as smart as you(even tho they can spell "arrogant")
And do I watch tv on my computer? All the time, since my 37in monitor does double duty as a computer desktop and HT screen. Convergence has happened big time in my house.
And its funny how I couldnt get anybody interested in laser, but EVERYBODY wants to
know how to hook their computer up to their TV like I do.
Its been that way since the compact disc for music, and the DVD for films. Not anything new here.
No, its not news, but you don't seem to understand it
buggy before horse. When ALL of America has hard drives and no disc, then you can say this. To say this now means you live on another planet(which wouldn't surprise me one bit)
I do live on another planet than you, its called EARTH'
All of America has hard drives, in ipods, dvd recorders, computers, PDA's, you name it.
And yes they have disc, but to say that its one or the other is kinda stupid even for you.
I listen to hard drive music, and STILL have the first record I ever got (honkey chateu)
When the austute inform themselves on what the industry REALLY is doing, and not what they THINK its doing, they know that downloading movies to own is currently a disaster. Downloading for rentals is not making any headway against renting physical disc. You guys keep comparing movies with music and they are not the same. Music has a very short window of value, movies do not. The cost of producing an album is no where near the cost of creating a movie. The market for older music is fading fast, but the market for classic movies does not appear to be that way.
Tell that to David Bowie. A few years ago he made a bond offering, based on future sales of his catalog. Sold fifty million in bonds, and hasnt had a serious hit in decades
AND the cost of producing something has no relation to its intrinsic value.
people shop and most see no difference between a CD and a movie, both are forms of entertainment. Doesnt matter how much they cost. Getting the production cost down
to where you can make money is econ 101, because people dont give a rats ass how much it costs, they still will only pay so much.
Which is why vod is gonna give you a swift kick in the netherregions, the infrastructure
is there, the cost is miniscule, and the potential profit is hugh, a paradigm shift is all that has to happen, and it will happen, if it hasnt already
When we get to 2050, then maybe you have a point. You may know about downloading, but you do not know the movie industry at all. Follow the money guys, that is what they do. And the money is not in downloads, its in disc no matter haw draconian you think that is.[/QUOTE]
Today.
Tommorrow , after the dollar futher devalues, and people are broke, most will still have some kind of computer, cable, sat dish.
VOD will be cheap, and just a buttonpush away. 2050 is a tad late, try 2010.:1:
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich-n-Texas
And you can thank Texas Instruments for that my friend! :thumbsup:
I can thank General Corso for making the chip from the crashed saucer available to
TI.
These guys made the first chip, but others were working on the same thing.
They made a contribution in the sixties, and have been sitting on their ass for decades.
About the only thing they have managed to acheive is a govt boondoggle, DLP, whicch they spent the taxpayers money on, and wound up with a display device that is in BLACK AND WHITE, needs a spinney color wheel , probably invented by rube goldberg,
to produce color.
MPEG, cheap hard drives and memory, a hdtv standard, the internet, 3 gig procs, you cant thank TI for ANY of this:1:
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
And do I watch tv on my computer? All the time, since my 37in monitor does double duty as a computer desktop and HT screen. Convergence has happened big time in my house.
And its funny how I couldnt get anybody interested in laser, but EVERYBODY wants to
know how to hook their computer up to their TV like I do.
I had a similar experience 2 years ago, when I bought a Mac Mini and hooked it up to a 52 inch Panasonic LCD Projection TV..... The first time my friends saw the setup, they were blown away and dying to try hooking up their own computers to their TVs....
Part of what has has retarted the pace of downloads taking over the market is that many people still don't realize how easy it is to hook up their computer to the TV... Once that changes, I think we'll see downloading gaining a lot more ground....
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
I can thank General Corso for making the chip from the crashed saucer available to
TI.
These guys made the first chip, but others were working on the same thing.
They made a contribution in the sixties, and have been sitting on their ass for decades.
About the only thing they have managed to acheive is a govt boondoggle, DLP, whicch they spent the taxpayers money on, and wound up with a display device that is in BLACK AND WHITE, needs a spinney color wheel , probably invented by rube goldberg,
to produce color.
MPEG, cheap hard drives and memory, a hdtv standard, the internet, 3 gig procs, you cant thank TI for ANY of this:1:
Pix, you make it IMPOSSIBLE for anyone to like you. I've tried time after time to get along with you but make a wisecrack in your direction and it's full-bore attack mode. You critisize people for their spelling errors but you don't even know how to quote people properly. I make a joke about TI and silicon, and your immediate response is to insult the company. Did you know that once again TI is one of the top 100 companies to work for in the states? Did you know that TI is a leader in advancing the roles of minorities in corporate America? Did you know how diverse TI is with it's hiring practices? Do you have ANY idea how many MILLIONS of products TI has devices in? TI would never hire a person as socially inept as someone like you, and that speaks volumes about your personality. But you don't care, your MO never changes.
They teach arrogance at SMU. Is that where you went to college?
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
I can thank General Corso for making the chip from the crashed saucer available to
TI.
1:
Ding. The light came on and now everything is clear.:idea:
It all makes sense. Just don't forget to take your meds.
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMichael
Ding. The light came on and now everything is clear.:idea:
It all makes sense. Just don't forget to take your meds.
there are actually people who beleive this, which I think belittles those who DID actually come up with the IC. They also think ET invented velcro and lasers.
I find this sort of nonsense fascinating.
I'm sure Rich got the joke, I mean stuff flys over his head but even him, I mean, right rich?
Rich?:confused5:
-
Every time I point my sarcasm detector at you Pix, it starts smoking. I'm tired of replacing it, and I'm tired of you.
STFU.
-
Quote:
I just call things as I see them
Then you need glasses, real thick ones.
Quote:
Who cares about "elements" of the disc"
The millions of people that answered the studios survey do. As expensive as they are to produce, why do you think its still on DVD's?
Quote:
the first time Jericho was on it was like a serial. If I MISSED an episode I went to CBS.com and caught up, sometimes I went to the TV section of my VOD AND WATCHED IT IN hd, FOR FREE.
Funny how nobodies doing this stuff but it remains available, guess these dumb corp
types arent as smart as you(even tho they can spell "arrogant")
Who cares. This is not the habits of the american public as a whole. People in tusbucket Montana don't have VOD yet, what are they supposed to do? Alot of people do not have access to broadband or cable, what do they do? America is not 100% wired, but every home in the America has at least one DVD player. And when that player breaks down, they will get another player, likely a bluray player because it can play HD and their DVD's as well with better quality than their old DVD player.
Quote:
And do I watch tv on my computer? All the time, since my 37in monitor does double duty as a computer desktop and HT screen. Convergence has happened big time in my house.
And its funny how I couldnt get anybody interested in laser, but EVERYBODY wants to
know how to hook their computer up to their TV like I do.
So just because you are doing this, does that mean everyone is doing this? No, I know no one who uses their computer screens as the basis of a HT. So are you playing DVD soundtracks through computer speakers? Hmmm, what a quality upgrade over real speakers with a relatively flat response. Covergence has happened in your house because your priorities are different financially speaking. I have a very good Sony 26" monitor I use for my home office. I do not watch movies in my office, I work there. I watch movies in my hometheater where I have paid VERY careful attention to the rooms acoustics, stray light reflecting back on the screen, the calibration of my set, and using a RTA to get a flat in room response from my speakers. I other words, it is designed for movie watching, and it would not be fun to work in there unless I was doing movie reviews.
Quote:
No, its not news, but you don't seem to understand it
No, this I understand. What I do not understand is your square peg in a round hole perspectives of the American publics viewing habits. You seem to think that your cheap low budget way of doing things is what ALL of America is doing. Its not, and you need to get out in the world as see this.
Quote:
I do live on another planet than you, its called EARTH'
You live on earth, in another reality than we do.
Quote:
All of America has hard drives, in ipods, dvd recorders, computers, PDA's, you name it.
And yes they have disc, but to say that its one or the other is kinda stupid even for you.
I listen to hard drive music, and STILL have the first record I ever got (honkey chateu)
Does the public watch movies on their PDA? No. Does the public surf on a IPOD? No. listening on a computer hard drive is a step down from listening on CD, and a huge step down from vinyl, so that is further evidence that quality is not your first priority. We do not use these gadgets to do all of the same thing. PDA are organizing tools for your schedule, your numbers, and notes. You don't watch movies on them. DVD recorders are for copying DVD's, VHS, and programs off the television. You do not organize your schedule of store numbers on it. Your thought process is spread like peanut butter with no apparent critical thinking given to it. And guess what, it is like swiss cheese when held up for scrutiny.
Quote:
Tell that to David Bowie. A few years ago he made a bond offering, based on future sales of his catalog. Sold fifty million in bonds, and hasnt had a serious hit in decades
AND the cost of producing something has no relation to its intrinsic value.
David Bowie does not own any films. You are talking about the value of ones career, not the value of a classic film. More apples and pears.
Quote:
people shop and most see no difference between a CD and a movie, both are forms of entertainment. Doesnt matter how much they cost. Getting the production cost down
to where you can make money is econ 101, because people dont give a rats ass how much it costs, they still will only pay so much.
People see no difference between a CD and a DVD??? Since they're package differently and found in different sections in a store, I would think everyone would know the difference. If people want a bluray player, they have proven they will pay the cost to get one. People have proven that inspite of what a bluray disc costs, they will pay for it.
Quote:
Which is why vod is gonna give you a swift kick in the netherregions, the infrastructure
is there, the cost is miniscule, and the potential profit is hugh, a paradigm shift is all that has to happen, and it will happen, if it hasnt already
This is what I mean about making assumption with no evidence. Nobody agrees with you that the infrastructure is there. And if it was there, then why are cable companies doing these kinds of things
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/0...ay-30-a-movie/
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/200...t-sued-ov.html
If the infrastructure was there, there would be no need to limit or slow down traffic would they? The cost is not miniscule. Cable is expensive, there is no profit potential at this moment or Walmart, Google and cinemovie would not have gone out of business, and there is no indication whatsoever that folks are shifting the way they view movies. You are just plain lying, or ignorant as hell.
Quote:
Today.
Tommorrow , after the dollar futher devalues, and people are broke, most will still have some kind of computer, cable, sat dish.
VOD will be cheap, and just a buttonpush away. 2050 is a tad late, try 2010.:1:
You are a plain idiot, 2010... right, most folks who KNOW what they are talking about say its at least a decade away. You are dreaming, unrealistic, and pretty damn ignorant on this whole subject. Pathetic.
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Sir Terrence the Terrible]Then you need glasses, real thick ones.
ER, NO, I think I have you pretty well summed up
The millions of people that answered the studios survey do. As expensive as they are to produce, why do you think its still on DVD's?
These "surveys" are from the retired, the homeless, and anyone else with time to waste on a "survey", which I and most working people hang up on
Who cares. This is not the habits of the american public as a whole. People in tusbucket Montana don't have VOD yet, what are they supposed to do? Alot of people do not have access to broadband or cable, what do they do? America is not 100% wired, but every home in the America has at least one DVD player. And when that player breaks down, they will get another player, likely a bluray player because it can play HD and their DVD's as well with better quality than their old DVD player.
Every home has a DVD player? What about the ones that dont have a TV?
So just because you are doing this, does that mean everyone is doing this? No, I know no one who uses their computer screens as the basis of a HT. So are you playing DVD soundtracks through computer speakers? Hmmm, what a quality upgrade over real speakers with a relatively flat response. Covergence has happened in your house because your priorities are different financially speaking. I have a very good Sony 26" monitor I use for my home office. I do not watch movies in my office, I work there. I watch movies in my hometheater where I have paid VERY careful attention to the rooms acoustics, stray light reflecting back on the screen, the calibration of my set, and using a RTA to get a flat in room response from my speakers. I other words, it is designed for movie watching, and it would not be fun to work in there unless I was doing movie reviews.
Once again a statement makes a valiant effort and bounces right off of your skull.
I dont use a "computer screen" as a basis of my HT, I use my HT monitor to surf the web
AND WATCH VIDEO , and I AM USING IT RIGHT NOW.
As usual you have it backwards, I play computer audio through my HT receiver because its so much better than any computer speakers can be.
Its nice that your HT is designed for movie watching, what a friggin waste.
Mine is designed for movie watching, video watching, audio listening, web surfing, etc.
SINCE I ONLY DO ONE THING AT A TIME THAT WORKS OUT.
Its just as much fun to "work" in my HT as watch a movie or listen to an album.
Maybe you'll learn enough to expand the capabilities of yours one day
No, this I understand. What I do not understand is your square peg in a round hole perspectives of the American publics viewing habits. You seem to think that your cheap low budget way of doing things is what ALL of America is doing. Its not, and you need to get out in the world as see this.
Actually it is. I KNEW a lady who was a big deal in her church choir, and a guy who was a director on a cruise ship and cut a few albums, Both had stereos with a record changer in the top. A friend with the best Axioms you can get still has a 35in crt set.
YOU THINK WALLMART IS GOING BROKE selling all of those chintzy HTIB sets
and boomboxes? I know one thing, their marketing dept is a lot better than yours
You live on earth, in another reality than we do.
I live in reality period, splash some water in your face and join the rest of the species
Does the public watch movies on their PDA? No. Does the public surf on a IPOD? No. listening on a computer hard drive is a step down from listening on CD, and a huge step down from vinyl, so that is further evidence that quality is not your first priority. We do not use these gadgets to do all of the same thing. PDA are organizing tools for your schedule, your numbers, and notes. You don't watch movies on them. DVD recorders are for copying DVD's, VHS, and programs off the television. You do not organize your schedule of store numbers on it. Your thought process is spread like peanut butter with no apparent critical thinking given to it. And guess what, it is like swiss cheese when held up for scrutiny.
You'd better check. I think you're horse is double parked.
People are doing ALL of those things.
the japanese are forgoing conventional computers, they are using PDA'S, cellphones,
and ipods and such to download files wand watch and listen to them.
The advent of glasses you can wear to present a 40in picture in front of you will only accelerate this trend. the more portable the better, people dont like to be tied down
David Bowie does not own any films. You are talking about the value of ones career, not the value of a classic film. More apples and pears.
AGAIN you totally miss the point, you say that the "value" of music fades, well, heres someone who made millions from a music catalog composed of stuff decades old
People see no difference between a CD and a DVD??? Since they're package differently and found in different sections in a store, I would think everyone would know the difference. If people want a bluray player, they have proven they will pay the cost to get one. People have proven that inspite of what a bluray disc costs, they will pay for it.
Of course people se no difference, as far as cost, they are deciding weather to spend precious money on a CD, or DVD, and which one they want.
Ones a movie, ones music. big deal, the most important point is which one do I spend my money on?
If they want a CD they'll get a CD , DOESNT MATTER IF A MOVIE COST MORE TO MAKE OR NOT.
Indeed, some movies are cheaper to buy than CD
This is what I mean about making assumption with no evidence. Nobody agrees with you that the infrastructure is there. And if it was there, then why are cable companies doing these kinds of things
YOU dont agree with me.
Twenty years ago my cable had no stereo at all, now it has digital audio, the computers
were measured by the memory they had because they had no hard drives.
take a look around, its a different world out there
If the infrastructure was there, there would be no need to limit or slow down traffic would they? The cost is not miniscule. Cable is expensive, there is no profit potential at this moment or Walmart, Google and cinemovie would not have gone out of business, and there is no indication whatsoever that folks are shifting the way they view movies. You are just plain lying, or ignorant as hell.
The cost of the net wasnt 'miniscule" either and look at how that worked out
You are a plain idiot, 2010... right, most folks who KNOW what they are talking about say its at least a decade away. You are dreaming, unrealistic, and pretty damn ignorant on this whole subject. Pathetic.[/QUOTE]
AND FIVE YEARS AGO THEY WERE saying that 1080p was at least 10 to twenty years away. And most had CRT sets , LCD was an expensive toy.
Truth is, you dont know, and neither do I, but when you bet against something happening you are usually wrong, at least technologically.
Again, 320 gigs is 99 bucks, memory is cheap as dirt, cable modems are pretty much it.
And you are a typical corporate shill, a yes man telling people what they want to hear.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
the local blockbuster used to be packed on tuesday, and if you didnt get there early you wouldnt get the latest release.
Now, with hq VOD and services like netflix the local videostores are becoming ghost
towns of a sort.
I went to rent the latest bourne movie on release day, got there in the afternoon,
they had plenty of copies, this used to NEVER happen.
My comunity is diverse in types of peoples and cultures, it has always gotten things first,
to guage the market.
If Comcast is doing a marketing experiment with their state of the art fiber optic system they have a success:1:
As stated before, I do think Downloads will be the future.
But.............................
Download and VOD are not the reason Blockbuster is not as busy these days. Competition like Netflix, McDonald's Red Box and the other bazillion DVD Rental vending machines in just about every Grocery Store around are a bigger reason. DVD sales are also a big reason. Many more people are just buying DVDs now instead of renting them. Also BB has online rental now. BB also has done away with "no-late fees" in most areas. No more poeple holding onto new releases for 7 days at a time. I notice in my local BB no late fees really cause a depletion in inventory levels at any given time. These things are the reason the BB stores are not as busy, not downloads.......Yet.
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by JSE
As stated before, I do think Downloads will be the future.
But.............................
Download and VOD are not the reason Blockbuster is not as busy these days. Competition like Netflix, McDonald's Red Box and the other bazillion DVD Rental vending machines in just about every Grocery Store around are a bigger reason. DVD sales are also a big reason. Many more people of just buying DVDs now instead of renting them. Also BB has online rental now. BB also has done away with "no-late fees" in most areas. No more poeple holding onto new releases for 7 days at a time. I notice in my local BB no late fees really cause a depletion in inventory levels at any given time. These things are the reason the BB stores are not as busy, not downloads.......Yet.
Not to mention that Blockbuster also does business by mail like Netflix now.
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
Sir Terrence the Terrible]Then you need glasses, real thick ones.
ER, NO, I think I have you pretty well summed up
The millions of people that answered the studios survey do. As expensive as they are to produce, why do you think its still on DVD's?
These "surveys" are from the retired, the homeless, and anyone else with time to waste on a "survey", which I and most working people hang up on
Who cares. This is not the habits of the american public as a whole. People in tusbucket Montana don't have VOD yet, what are they supposed to do? Alot of people do not have access to broadband or cable, what do they do? America is not 100% wired, but every home in the America has at least one DVD player. And when that player breaks down, they will get another player, likely a bluray player because it can play HD and their DVD's as well with better quality than their old DVD player.
Every home has a DVD player? What about the ones that dont have a TV?
So just because you are doing this, does that mean everyone is doing this? No, I know no one who uses their computer screens as the basis of a HT. So are you playing DVD soundtracks through computer speakers? Hmmm, what a quality upgrade over real speakers with a relatively flat response. Covergence has happened in your house because your priorities are different financially speaking. I have a very good Sony 26" monitor I use for my home office. I do not watch movies in my office, I work there. I watch movies in my hometheater where I have paid VERY careful attention to the rooms acoustics, stray light reflecting back on the screen, the calibration of my set, and using a RTA to get a flat in room response from my speakers. I other words, it is designed for movie watching, and it would not be fun to work in there unless I was doing movie reviews.
Once again a statement makes a valiant effort and bounces right off of your skull.
I dont use a "computer screen" as a basis of my HT, I use my HT monitor to surf the web
AND WATCH VIDEO , and I AM USING IT RIGHT NOW.
As usual you have it backwards, I play computer audio through my HT receiver because its so much better than any computer speakers can be.
Its nice that your HT is designed for movie watching, what a friggin waste.
Mine is designed for movie watching, video watching, audio listening, web surfing, etc.
SINCE I ONLY DO ONE THING AT A TIME THAT WORKS OUT.
Its just as much fun to "work" in my HT as watch a movie or listen to an album.
Maybe you'll learn enough to expand the capabilities of yours one day
No, this I understand. What I do not understand is your square peg in a round hole perspectives of the American publics viewing habits. You seem to think that your cheap low budget way of doing things is what ALL of America is doing. Its not, and you need to get out in the world as see this.
Actually it is. I KNEW a lady who was a big deal in her church choir, and a guy who was a director on a cruise ship and cut a few albums, Both had stereos with a record changer in the top. A friend with the best Axioms you can get still has a 35in crt set.
YOU THINK WALLMART IS GOING BROKE selling all of those chintzy HTIB sets
and boomboxes? I know one thing, their marketing dept is a lot better than yours
You live on earth, in another reality than we do.
I live in reality period, splash some water in your face and join the rest of the species
Does the public watch movies on their PDA? No. Does the public surf on a IPOD? No. listening on a computer hard drive is a step down from listening on CD, and a huge step down from vinyl, so that is further evidence that quality is not your first priority. We do not use these gadgets to do all of the same thing. PDA are organizing tools for your schedule, your numbers, and notes. You don't watch movies on them. DVD recorders are for copying DVD's, VHS, and programs off the television. You do not organize your schedule of store numbers on it. Your thought process is spread like peanut butter with no apparent critical thinking given to it. And guess what, it is like swiss cheese when held up for scrutiny.
You'd better check. I think you're horse is double parked.
People are doing ALL of those things.
the japanese are forgoing conventional computers, they are using PDA'S, cellphones,
and ipods and such to download files wand watch and listen to them.
The advent of glasses you can wear to present a 40in picture in front of you will only accelerate this trend. the more portable the better, people dont like to be tied down
David Bowie does not own any films. You are talking about the value of ones career, not the value of a classic film. More apples and pears.
AGAIN you totally miss the point, you say that the "value" of music fades, well, heres someone who made millions from a music catalog composed of stuff decades old
People see no difference between a CD and a DVD??? Since they're package differently and found in different sections in a store, I would think everyone would know the difference. If people want a bluray player, they have proven they will pay the cost to get one. People have proven that inspite of what a bluray disc costs, they will pay for it.
Of course people se no difference, as far as cost, they are deciding weather to spend precious money on a CD, or DVD, and which one they want.
Ones a movie, ones music. big deal, the most important point is which one do I spend my money on?
If they want a CD they'll get a CD , DOESNT MATTER IF A MOVIE COST MORE TO MAKE OR NOT.
Indeed, some movies are cheaper to buy than CD
This is what I mean about making assumption with no evidence. Nobody agrees with you that the infrastructure is there. And if it was there, then why are cable companies doing these kinds of things
YOU dont agree with me.
Twenty years ago my cable had no stereo at all, now it has digital audio, the computers
were measured by the memory they had because they had no hard drives.
take a look around, its a different world out there
If the infrastructure was there, there would be no need to limit or slow down traffic would they? The cost is not miniscule. Cable is expensive, there is no profit potential at this moment or Walmart, Google and cinemovie would not have gone out of business, and there is no indication whatsoever that folks are shifting the way they view movies. You are just plain lying, or ignorant as hell.
The cost of the net wasnt 'miniscule" either and look at how that worked out
You are a plain idiot, 2010... right, most folks who KNOW what they are talking about say its at least a decade away. You are dreaming, unrealistic, and pretty damn ignorant on this whole subject. Pathetic.
AND FIVE YEARS AGO THEY WERE saying that 1080p was at least 10 to twenty years away. And most had CRT sets , LCD was an expensive toy.
Truth is, you dont know, and neither do I, but when you bet against something happening you are usually wrong, at least technologically.
Again, 320 gigs is 99 bucks, memory is cheap as dirt, cable modems are pretty much it.
And you are a typical corporate shill, a yes man telling people what they want to hear.
What makes this so pathetic is you have a old man who has never worked in the film or television industry trying to make sense of something he hasn't a clue about. This armchair idiot is challenging the information accumulated through the largest CE reporting firm in the world, and industry analyst that have been covering this industry SPECIFICALLY.
Well Pixel, this is much like your 720p is better than 1080i post. No detail, no figures or links to support anything you have said. You read stuff, and think you have a deep understanding, when it is just cursory. I do not have to argue this any further. Everyone is profoundy aware that you do not know what you are talking about.
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