Blu-ray players out selling HD-DVD despite...

[Woochifer]

We'll see how the Paramount/Dreamworks switchover affects player sales. Until that announcement, HD-DVD only had Bourne Ultimatum to look forward to among the highest grossing summer releases. Now that HD-DVD can add high grossing titles like Shrek 3 and Transformers to its exclusive release roster, Blu-ray's no longer a no-brainer for the mass market though it still retains an exclusivity advantage because of the box office performance for Sony, Fox, and Disney.

Under the market conditions that existed prior to their going over to HD-DVD, I think it was inevitable that Blu-ray would surpass HD-DVD in standalone player sales even with higher prices. With a sizable studio support advantage, Blu-ray had the luxury of justifying a price premium over HD-DVD. HD-DVD had a clear disadvantage in title availability (particularly with new releases), and was forced to prop up market share by dropping prices.

Now that HD-DVD has cut into Blu-ray's studio support advantage, Blu-ray is in less of a position to justify significantly higher prices. At the same time, HD-DVD is in a less dire situation, so they might not see a need to keep pushing prices further down (especially if Toshiba indeed continues to lose money on each HD-DVD player sold).

On the flip side, I think your point about brand recognition should not be underestimated. More brands and more models equates to more retail shelf space (at least with electronics stores) and visibility. Even if Toshiba by itself still sells about the same number of standalone players as Sony, Philips, Pioneer, Samsung, Panasonic, Sharp, JVC, LG, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi, their model lineup simply occupies less shelf space than the much bigger assortment of Blu-ray players.

Toshiba is on its own until the off-brand stuff from China begins arriving in earnest. OTOH, Blu-ray has multiple companies marketing their own hardware, and clamoring to get their players onto store shelves. Panasonic is jointly marketing their Blu-ray players and new 1080p plasma sets with Disney's Platinum Series Blu-ray launch, and Sharp has begun cobranding their newly introduced Blu-ray player and LCD HDTVs under the AQUOS label.

[drseid]

At the same time, HD-DVD is in a less dire situation, so they might not see a need to keep pushing prices further down (especially if Toshiba indeed continues to lose money on each HD-DVD player sold).

Toshiba is on its own until the off-brand stuff from China begins arriving in earnest.

Well, it may not be from China (but might be manufactured there for all I know), but Toshiba does not really have to lower the retail price of their players in the short run unless they want to because a new manufacturer (Venturer) is releasing a $199 MSRP player for Q4 this year (and many on forum groups are expecting a possible $99 selling price around holiday time -- I am thinking more along the $149 level myself). This also puts some doubt on the loss-leader claims by some of Toshiba's own offerings. I don't believe they ever were losing money on these things, but no doubt would have loved to earn much more margin than they did... Link to brief press release on the Venturer SHD700 HD DVD player from August follows....

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/venturer...vd-player/4700

and a follow-up link to the pricing announcement...

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/venturer...vd-player/4700

---Dave

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Well, it may not be from China (but might be manufactured there for all I know), but Toshiba does not really have to lower the retail price of their players in the short run unless they want to because a new manufacturer (Venturer) is releasing a $199 MSRP player for Q4 this year (and many on forum groups are expecting a possible $99 selling price around holiday time -- I am thinking more along the $149 level myself). This also puts some doubt on the loss-leader claims by some of Toshiba's own offerings. I don't believe they ever were losing money on these things, but no doubt would have loved to earn much more margin than they did... Link to brief press release on the Venturer SHD700 HD DVD player from August follows....

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/venturer...vd-player/4700

and a follow-up link to the pricing announcement...

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/venturer...vd-player/4700

---Dave

Dave,
Toshiba is losing money on every player. Isuppli did a parts breakdown on the A1, XA1, A2 and XA2, and they were losing their shirts on the A1 and XA1, and XA2. They are not losing quite so much with the A2.

[drseid]

Dave,
Toshiba is losing money on every player. Isuppli did a parts breakdown on the A1, XA1, A2 and XA2, and they were losing their shirts on the A1 and XA1, and XA2. They are not losing quite so much with the A2.

I am not familiar with Isuppli, so I can't comment on them specifically. I will say that only Toshiba knows what their true costs are. Many can make educated guesses by consensus parts cost data (Apple, Sony and many other companies are subjected to this all the time), and some may be right, but I would say it is all speculation.

I still maintain that is seems unlikely that Venturer would sell their players at a loss (although again, not impossible if they are using a quick market penetration strategy at an artificially low price point). If so, it stands to reason that Toshiba is not losing money on their players either (as they cost more than the Venturer). Both can't be proven by me, as I have no connection professionally to either company, so I am not privy to their repective true costs. I am just making a similar kind of educated guess based on logical company reasoning.

---Dave