Blu-ray Discs Won’t Be Cheap

[kexodusc]

Personally I'm quite happy with broadcast HD, and I don't see the need for a multi-thousand dollar outlay in new & potentially buggy technology + $40 a pop software to get incrementally better quality. I think I'm going to be in the majority on this one.

Well, when you put it like that....

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Personally I'm quite happy with broadcast HD, and I don't see the need for a multi-thousand dollar outlay in new & potentially buggy technology + $40 a pop software to get incrementally better quality. I think I'm going to be in the majority on this one.

Maybe you will be the majority amoung the six packs, but I don't think videophiles or early adopters will follow you. I think their logic for supporting the format early comes from a much different place than yours. To each his own I say, I will not support the first generation, and will not support either format until all HDMI standards are completed and implemented.

One cannot assume anything will be buggy, or the price will stay at $40. Only time will tell. I have never taken a negative perspective about new technology until it has given me a reason to.

[Geoffcin]

Maybe you will be the majority amoung the six packs, but I don't think videophiles or early adopters will follow you. I think their logic for supporting the format early comes from a much different place than yours. To each his own I say, I will not support the first generation, and will not support either format until all HDMI standards are completed and implemented.

One cannot assume anything will be buggy, or the price will stay at $40. Only time will tell. I have never taken a negative perspective about new technology until it has given me a reason to.

The fact is that videophiles and early adopters have been hoodwinked on this one. The new formats are not about how good a picture they can bring to the public, but how robust a copywrite protection they can implement. Get ready for players that lock up when they detect a non-standard BlueRay disk and refuse to play until the RIAA sends the FBI to your house to see if you've been ripping software.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

The fact is that videophiles and early adopters have been hoodwinked on this one. The new formats are not about how good a picture they can bring to the public, but how robust a copywrite protection they can implement. Get ready for players that lock up when they detect a non-standard BlueRay disk and refuse to play until the RIAA sends the FBI to your house to see if you've been ripping software.

So are you saying that the picture will be no better than we currectly get, and all the studio's want to do is disable your player and have you arrested? That's a great business model isn't it?

[Geoffcin]

So are you saying that the picture will be no better than we currectly get, and all the studio's want to do is disable your player and have you arrested? That's a great business model isn't it?

I also feel that you've confermed the fact that even videophiles hungry for HD will be skipping out on being first adopters on this one.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I also feel that you've confermed the fact that even videophiles hungry for HD will be skipping out on being first adopters on this one.

The only thing that I confirmed is that I would not be adopting early, not other videophiles. I am afraid you'll have to conduct your own poll to confirm that amoungst others. I denotes singularity not plurality.

[Geoffcin]

The only thing that I confirmed is that I would not be adopting early, not other videophiles. I am afraid you'll have to conduct your own poll to confirm that amoungst others. I denotes singularity not plurality.

If your not going to buy into it, then who?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

If your not going to buy into it, then who?

I surf around several A/V websites. On hometheater.com I estimate that maybe 25% of the respondents to Ron question about early adoption of either format were jumping in first.

Hometheaterdiscussion it was about the same amount, but it is a much smaller website.

There was no specific question asked on AVS, but based on some posts I have seen there seems to be much interest in early adoption of BluRay.

While there is no groundswell of support, I remember when DVD first started off there wasn't that much support either. Most seemed very content with their Laserdisc players.

[kexodusc]

If you look at early adopters in successful and failed products, you'll find a lot of similarities. MiniDisc had an unusually strong early adoption period, but failed to make any inroads past that.
I guess DVD-A and SACD have had similar histories.

I doubt any product of this magnitude could survive by selling to only 25% of a/v enthusiast.

I think maybe it's way to early to write off either format yet though. It could 3 years before one finally emerges, and the industry might very well wait, and give HD-DVD or BluRay a decade of being the standard before another format emerges. Time will tell. Except the longer these guys wait, the more fierce the competition from other forms of entertainment gets.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

If you look at early adopters in successful and failed products, you'll find a lot of similarities. MiniDisc had an unusually strong early adoption period, but failed to make any inroads past that.
I guess DVD-A and SACD have had similar histories.

DVD-A nor SACD have enjoyed a strong early adoption period.

I doubt any product of this magnitude could survive by selling to only 25% of a/v enthusiast.

I think maybe it's way to early to write off either format yet though. It could 3 years before one finally emerges, and the industry might very well wait, and give HD-DVD or BluRay a decade of being the standard before another format emerges. Time will tell. Except the longer these guys wait, the more fierce the competition from other forms of entertainment gets.

If they start at 25% market penitration, then IMO that is a good start. I think everyone is totally forgeting about DVD's beginning. It took three years after it first came out before joe six pack even knew it was there. I think we just need to wait and see how things shake out before we begin to draw all of the conclusions.

[kexodusc]

DVD-A nor SACD have enjoyed a strong early adoption period.

Actually, that was my point...the appearance of a strong early adoption period is not an indication of success. The jury is still out as to whether these formats will penetrate the mainstream or even continue to exist as audiophile "niche" market products. Is it strong early adoption, or has the decline already begun for these products? You usually can't gauge the stage of the product's life cycle early as easily as we might like.

If they start at 25% market penitration, then IMO that is a good start. I think everyone is totally forgeting about DVD's beginning. It took three years after it first came out before joe six pack even knew it was there. I think we just need to wait and see how things shake out before we begin to draw all of the conclusions.

Hmm, actually I didn't say 25% market penetration, I said 25% of a/v enthusiast penetration. How many people with home theaters actually consider themselves a/v enthusiasts? Both my parents and mother/father in law certainly wouldn't be "enthusiasts" or dedicated hobbyists, audiophiles, etc, whatever lingo we can use. I think it's safe to say you'll get fewer joe blows answering web polls on new a/v formats than audiophiles etc. My point here was just that while you and I might adopt v.2 BluRay players because we're into this stuff, doesn't mean it'll catch on. I bought laser discs, SACDs, and DVD-As too, but I don't think they panned out so well in hindsight (though I still have my fingers crossed for SACD and DVD-A).

Whatever the numbers, the early adoption period generally isn't an indication of success, just metric for how to proceed. Sometimes it's "full speed ahead", sometimes it's "abandon ship". Sometimes a product doesn't fail until late.

Hopefully that isn't the case here, though I'm a bit skeptical.
The general sentiment I've seen on most a/v hobby sites is that most people will wait for a unified or dominant format to emerge before buying....if nobody buys, it could be years before this happens.

[mdbakker]

Interesting thread and debate on the future of HD-DVD and Blue Ray.

I figure I'll give my thoughts on this topic. I bought into Laser Disc and loved that format as it was better in quality than VHS at the time. And you could get Dolby Digital on some of the discs.

DVD came along, and I bought into that immediately. Of course there was a competing format with Divx which thankfully died out. In evaluating the DVD vs. Divx debate, I never understood why I would need to have my player connected to a phone jack so that I would have to "unlock" the disc to play and pay $2 for every time I wanted to watch the disc. Never made sense to me because I liked to collect movies. I'm sure parents would have had a fit over that with the little ones wanting to watch Nemo 50 times a week and paying $2 for every viewing. Plus Divx didn't give any widescreen support like DVD did.

The reason I think DVD became popular was portability. I liked the quality, but I think portability and ease of use brought that product mainstream. No rewinding, put the disc in and let it go. Priced just a little higher than VHS. What average family wouldn't go that route rather than stay in the VHS world? Even those of us who enjoy the video and audio upgrades that DVD brought, I think it was that coupled with the fact that it was so much more portable and easy to use that pushed it into the mainstream.

Now that DVD is in the mainstream, I think people have realized how great it can be for a home theater and I think DVD pushed the whole home theater market even further forward.

Now comes Blue Ray and HD-DVD. Personally, I'll wait this one out. While I tend to view Blue Ray as the better format, I wish the studios and manufacturers would have just come up with one standard. Maybe with the advancement of Universal players it won't matter so much, but seems to me one format would have been better. So now will Blue Ray and HD-DVD kick DVD from it's perch now or in the future? I don't think so. The portability that DVD first offered most Americans is not there with this format. Two formats? People might not like that either (DVD didn't make big inroads until Divx died). Plus, how many people are going to own big screen TVs with the HDMI connection that is needed for full resolution HD content? Those with Component will not get a significant amount of resoultion increase because of how the studios are requiring the hardware to downconvert the content. I guess you have to ask... is the AVERAGE family going to notice a huge difference over DVD on a 37" or 40" TV (if that's what people buy). I know most of my family (all of who have a DVD player) will not upgrade their TVs and as such I don't believe they will benefit from the added resolution - or audio for that matter as they watch most of the stuff with the TV speakers.

I'm the type of person who on a forum like this have somewhat of a passion for the home theater - as I'm sure people are who read this. I just don't think the average american visits a site like this and hence won't see the benefit in HD-DVD or Blue Ray on their equipment. So what is the compelling reason for those folks to upgrade? I don't see any reason unless new TVs become dirt cheap and can dramitcally show a difference. Even then, are mom and dad going to buy the new version of Nemo in HiDef just for junior? I doubt it.

Just my two cents.

[Geoffcin]

Just my two cents.

If that was 2 cents, I want to see what we get for a buck!

Your input is very wecome on these forums. It's also nice to hear from former "early adopter" on this subject.