Blu-ray Already Declaring Victory

[Woochifer]

I just dont know if the average customers cares enough about blu-ray/hd-dvd for either to succeed. I've read through the posts, and there are a lot of good points. The argument that HD tvs took off last year is fine, but i think its because thats pretty much all that available these days. Sure there are still SD tvs available, but why buy one? And just because HDTV's are taking off doesnt necessarily mean blu-ray/hd-dvd will follow. My dad just bought an HDTV, does he care about blu-ray? hell no, he probably doesnt even know what the hell it is.

Granted, there will be a market for either blu-ray or hd-dvd, just like there is a market for sacd/dvd-audio, albeit a small one. In my opinion, and everyone i talk to about this, they have no interest in spending more on a player and more on the dvds to see a little better picture. The average customer just doesnt care enough.

Just my opinion. I'm sure i'll get ripped a new one.

Actually you're raising a valid point. This thread has been about the format war between HD-DVD and Blu-ray. Whether either format can displace the DVD is another question altogether. I've been posting for years that the DVD should have been an HD format all along. The HDTV specs were finalized back in 1992 when development on the DVD was still in the early stages.

Like with other digital formats, I think the DVD was released prematurely. If developers had waited until they could produce a disc format with sufficient capacity to handle HD video, I think that format could have driven the HDTV market and led to much earlier adoption. Instead, HDTVs were introduced with virtually no HD content available, while the DVD was introduced as a standard definition format. Since the DVD has taken over as the primary home video format, it might be just as entrenched for the long-term as the CD has been on the audio side. But, one factor in Blu-ray and HD-DVD's favor compared to DVD-A and SACD is the much stronger studio support that both formats have had compared to the music industry's mishandling of high res audio.

You're right that DVD might be good enough for Joe6p, and that's why I think Sony's inclusion of Blu-ray with the PS3 has probably turned out to be a smart move, at least on the home video side (on the gaming side, I think they gave up a lot of market share). Joe6p will not buy a Blu-ray player, but a lot of them will buy PS3s, if not for them then for their kids. If only a minority of PS3 buyers wind up using their gaming console as Blu-ray players, that's still a built-in customer base that potentially numbers in the millions. Far greater than Blu-ray or HD-DVD could have grown on their own. Again, whether this is enough to make Blu-ray or HD-DVD (or some combination of the two) the format of choice for home video viewing remains to be seen.

I read a while ago that about half of HDTV owners don't watch any HD content on those TVs. A lot of the early complaints from HDTV owners centered on the lack of HD programming. The question though is whether that will change now that 1) most OTA broadcasters now also broadcast in DTV; 2) the biggest cable channels (such as CNN, MTV, TBS, FX, and A&E) plan to start HD broadcasts this year; 3) Blu-ray and HD-DVD player prices are projected to drop below $400 by year's end, with Blu-ray in particular ramping up a large slate of releases this year; and 4) HD downloading now in the initial stages.

And the one statistic mentioned here about 80% of the 10000 people who own a PS3 will buy blu-ray dvds is misleading i think. I'm guessing if you surveyed 10000 people and asked them if they were planning on starting a roth ira or something to that effect, 80% would say yes. The point I am trying to make is a lot of peole say they are goign to do things, when it comes down to it, they never do.

It's not "misleading" because it's based on attitudinal surveys of PS3 owners -- it just is what it is. You're right that just because they they answer the question they won't necessarily follow up. But, I think it's also a good indicator that PS3 owners plan to use their consoles for more than just gaming. And the 700% jump in Blu-ray disc sales that occurred in the month after the PS3 introduction indicates that a lot of PS3 owners did actually follow through and purchase Blu-ray discs.

Wooch, Casino Royal is your ace in the hole? It wasn't that impressive of a movie, and I doubt the aging James Bond franchise is going to save the day for Blu-Ray.

Well, obviously your dislike for a movie does not deny the reality that Casino Royale took in hundreds of millions at the box office worldwide, just as your disdain for Sony and wishful thinking does not change the fact that Blu-ray's market trends are now running consistently ahead of HD-DVD.

My point on Casino Royale is simply that it will very likely push Blu-ray's overall disc sales ahead of HD-DVD, effectively negating HD-DVD's headstart. With week-to-week sales now 2-to-1 in favor of Blu-ray, this is going to happen with or without Casino Royale, and could happen before that title even comes out since Blu-ray has been adding about 1% to its market share every week for the past few weeks. Right now the overall disc sales stand at 52% to 48%, with no big HD-DVD exclusives on the horizon and Casino Royale coming out in three weeks. I would not regard Casino Royale as an "ace in the hole" because it's just one among many big releases due to come out exclusively on Blu-ray. Just look at last year's box office chart. Where do you see any potential HD-DVD exclusives (i.e., Universal releases) that might be an "ace in the hole" for that format?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/...yr=2006&p=.htm

"Save the day" for Blu-ray? Between the two HD disc formats, Blu-ray is not the one that needs someone or something to intervene and "save the day."

[GMichael]

I read a while ago that about half of HDTV owners don't watch any HD content on those TVs. A lot of the early complaints from HDTV owners centered on the lack of HD programming. The question though is whether that will change now that 1) most OTA broadcasters now also broadcast in DTV; 2) the biggest cable channels (such as CNN, MTV, TBS, FX, and A&E) plan to start HD broadcasts this year;

"

Part of the problem may be that broadcasters do not do enough to inform Mr. Joe how to get his HD programs. Example: My dad has an HD 55" Sony. He gets HD broadcasts from his local cable company. He's always complaining to me that he can't see a difference between the std shows and the HD shows. When I go to see him I find that he's watching HD shows but is tuned to the old std channel. He needs to switch to the higher 800+ channels to get the true HD broadcast. He complains, "but the program says that it's in HD." Yes, but only if you tune to the right channel. He does not understand. My guess is that he's not the only one. After all, he was an EE and the chief at a power plant for 30 years. It's not like he's an idiot. He just doesn't understand why he needs to change the channel to get the HD broadcast that the lower channels are already claiming to be in.

[Woochifer]

Alright, no need to play the Casino Royale card. The latest Videoscan numbers now show Blu-ray moving ahead of HD-DVD in overall disc sales.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...ass_HD_DVD/489

Part of the problem may be that broadcasters do not do enough to inform Mr. Joe how to get his HD programs. Example: My dad has an HD 55" Sony. He gets HD broadcasts from his local cable company. He's always complaining to me that he can't see a difference between the std shows and the HD shows. When I go to see him I find that he's watching HD shows but is tuned to the old std channel. He needs to switch to the higher 800+ channels to get the true HD broadcast. He complains, "but the program says that it's in HD." Yes, but only if you tune to the right channel. He does not understand. My guess is that he's not the only one. After all, he was an EE and the chief at a power plant for 30 years. It's not like he's an idiot. He just doesn't understand why he needs to change the channel to get the HD broadcast that the lower channels are already claiming to be in.

I think it will remain a huge issue so long as cable companies have to maintain a dual analog/digital infrastructure, and TVs have to accommodate all these broadcast standards (OTA analog, OTA DTV, CATV analog, and CADTV). My dad was also an engineer, and he never figured out how to set the clock on a VCR and still has trouble navigating a DVD menu. Go figure.

Also, the cable and satellite service providers currently market HD as a premium service, which requires customers to use a set-top box. I know that newer HDTVs have can take an unscrambled DTV signal from the cable company (referred to as CADTV). The simplest option would be to simply stream the digital broadcast channels directly to the HDTV tuner through the cable unscrambled, and let customers use the TV tuner. But, the cable companies want to force customers to buy the whole digital tier package, so they still require the digital set top box.

[GMichael]

So much for the HD tuner that was paid for when buying that TV. Picture & picture is gone too. I can still get the P&P because of the DVR my cable company lets me rent from them. But it's nothing like the 9 pics I could get when using the Sony's tuner.

I think I may have derailed another thread. So sorry. Please go back to the Sony vs Microsoft debate. I've been reading all posts with great anticipation.

[nightflier]

Wooch,

Here's another scenario for ya (culled from that earlier post):

- Blockbuster & Netflix drop Blu-Ray from their lineup because the disks are too fragile to withstand repeated shipping back & forth.

This would leave only the retail sales channel open to BR, thus sealing its fate. As I said, we are completely ignoring the importance of rentals on this industry. Considering how many people have Blockbuster and/or Netflix subscriptions, this is probably the most widespread source of movies to the largest number of customers. So I really do hope someone on this forum can provide some rental numbers.

Something else to think about: how much have Blockbuster & Netflix contributed to the drop in sales of movies in the last two years. My guess is, quite a bit. The studios keep pointing the finger at pirates, but I think the real culprit is new technology (in this case, easy Internet-based selection and simpler subscription services). Once Netflix starts offering download services to it's share of customers, I think we will see another revolution in this industry.

Well, obviously your dislike for a movie does not deny the reality that Casino Royale took in hundreds of millions at the box office worldwide, just as your disdain for Sony and wishful thinking does not change the fact that Blu-ray's market trends are now running consistently ahead of HD-DVD.

Regarding Casino Royale, yes box office sales were decent, but how many of those were repeat viewers? I think most people heard or read that the movie was a smidge better than the last Bond flic and thought they would check it out. And after seeing it once, they had enough. Considering how pathetic the selection of action films has been this year (especially the summer movie drought), the public has just been grasping at straws for some decent movie watching. Will these people then buy the BR disk too? Who knows, but let's see how its rental does, first.

And let's dispense with the veiled personal comments. My dislike for Sony is well deserved and I think a lot of people share that irritation. I've had to remove two of those %$#@# rootkits already, and short of reformatting the whole drive, I'll never know if this virus was completely removed. What Sony did with rootkits was beyond the pale and was in my opinion criminal. Yes, I was already upset about their proprietary formats, their inflated prices on the PC side, and their anti-MP3 stance, but this was the last straw.

I have nothing against the BR format, especially since I consider it technically superior. And despite what you may think, I am making an effort to separate my dislike of Sony from the points I am making about BR. I certainly don't care for Microsoft either, but let's call a spade a spade shall we? The proclamation that BR disk sales are outpacing HD-DVD 3-1, a 75% market share, according to one of your early posts, is the kind of claim that smacks of yelling fire in a crowded movie theater. Maybe this figure was only referring to one particular month, maybe the one month that Sony was giving out those free disks? I really don't know, but this statement did not jive with what I observed at the store, the rental services, with game console sales, on the computer-tech side, and with standalone player sales. As people filled in some of the details above, it became clear that the 3-1 figure was a bit inflated and when cooler heads prevailed, we found out that it's more like 51-52% in favor of BR, according to that Wall Street Journal article.

As I said before, I don't have access to all the data that you have, but I'm only describing what I see. My objection doesn't have the deep statistical analysis and thorough calculations about next month's expected sales, but it does have one reality that can't be ignored so easily: what I observed is also what Joe6p sees when he's browsing around at BB.

Another point I've been trying to make, which is what I've taken away from seeing these things unfold with so many other technologies, is that the supremacy of BR is just a prediction and any of a number of scenarios, including the ones I've suggested, could change the fate of BR very quickly. It is simply too early to make predictions, unless one already had pitched their tent in one camp. Certainly all the heated debates are coming from people who've already bought a player, and who thus have a vested interest in their side prevailing. This is hardly a position of neutrality to be arguing from.

Since we are talking about movies, I just watched again last night, for the umptieth time, one of my favorite movies (a standard DVD): The Fellowship of the Ring. At the end, all seems hopeless: the forces of evil outnumber all other players and are on the verge of victory. But we all know that by the time the war is well under way, players yet unengaged eventually turn the tide of disaster in favor of men, elves, dwarves, and hobbits. None of these initially unengaged players joined because they were confident their side would win - no, they joined because the winning forces of evil were recklessly attacking their interests. Likewise, if the BR camp, and it's adherent companies trample on too many unengaged players, the tide could very well turn. Think of Blockbuster/Netflix as the Ents... Yes The LOTR is a tale of fantasy, made more potent with active imagination, but tales of fantasy have won real wars in the past.

One other factor that played a role in the movie and that could very well play a role in the BR / HD-DVD war is leadership. What if Steve Jobs came out publicly in favor of HD-DVD and actively promoted it as the anti-media platform? The cool factor of standing up for something, anything, in this decade of apathy and misery, would draw millions of young people to his cause, not to mention the millions of iPod / iPhone owners. Maybe his negotiations with Sony for DRM-free music & movies becomes the catalyst for an Aragorn-like champion against the evil empire of corporate media domination. He is already leaning in that direction. This could be the revolution of our time!

It could happen....

[Groundbeef]

Its a pretty good parady of a popular song, and its about how Sony squandered its lead.

It superimposes company comments, and actual audio from press meetings, and some other stuff. Funny and pretty polished.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R98qC0fd_1w

I laughed out loud a couple of times!

[Woochifer]

Wooch,

Here's another scenario for ya (culled from that earlier post):

- Blockbuster & Netflix drop Blu-Ray from their lineup because the disks are too fragile to withstand repeated shipping back & forth.

This would leave only the retail sales channel open to BR, thus sealing its fate. As I said, we are completely ignoring the importance of rentals on this industry. Considering how many people have Blockbuster and/or Netflix subscriptions, this is probably the most widespread source of movies to the largest number of customers. So I really do hope someone on this forum can provide some rental numbers.

Something else to think about: how much have Blockbuster & Netflix contributed to the drop in sales of movies in the last two years. My guess is, quite a bit. The studios keep pointing the finger at pirates, but I think the real culprit is new technology (in this case, easy Internet-based selection and simpler subscription services). Once Netflix starts offering download services to it's share of customers, I think we will see another revolution in this industry.

This is a red herring, because as I stated earlier Panasonic purportedly developed a hard coating technique that solves any potential issues with scratching. Sony and TDK have also developed scratch guarding techniques that they use in the duplicating process. Thus far, I've not read any widespread problems with discs getting rendered unplayable due to scratches. It might yet emerge as an issue, but nothing that's come up so far.

Your whole harping on the rentals is a dead end given that the DVD rental trends usually track closely with the sales. And the revenue generated by rentals for the top titles usually pales in comparison to what they generate with sales.

And even if rentals are the deciding market factor that you say they are, how does HD-DVD get around the lack of studio support and big hit new releases? Hard to stay ahead in the rental market if a format has fewer new releases, and most of the big titles unavailable.

Also, your point about "drop in sales" over the last two years is false. Only the growth rate has declined, but the actual sales have still continued to increase.

Regarding Casino Royale, yes box office sales were decent, but how many of those were repeat viewers? I think most people heard or read that the movie was a smidge better than the last Bond flic and thought they would check it out. And after seeing it once, they had enough. Considering how pathetic the selection of action films has been this year (especially the summer movie drought), the public has just been grasping at straws for some decent movie watching. Will these people then buy the BR disk too? Who knows, but let's see how its rental does, first.

Repeat viewers? Seeing how the rental does first? What does any of that have to do with anything?

Casino Royale or not, Blu-ray has already passed HD-DVD in overall disc sales, despite HD-DVD's 6+ month headstart. The format has maintained a consistent 2-to-1 advantage in disc sales since the start of the year, and it has a far bigger slate of big box office titles coming out over the next few months. Casino Royale is just one example of a high-grossing Blu-ray exclusive title that HD-DVD has no answer for.

You can rationalize all you want about how the public wants "decent movie watching" but the growth of both HD formats over the next few months will be dictated by which format can get more players into consumers' hands and which format puts out more of the titles that consumers are looking for. And on both of those counts, Blu-ray has a clear advantage. Any other interpretation is nothing more than splitting hairs and wishful thinking.

I have nothing against the BR format, especially since I consider it technically superior. And despite what you may think, I am making an effort to separate my dislike of Sony from the points I am making about BR. I certainly don't care for Microsoft either, but let's call a spade a spade shall we? The proclamation that BR disk sales are outpacing HD-DVD 3-1, a 75% market share, according to one of your early posts, is the kind of claim that smacks of yelling fire in a crowded movie theater. Maybe this figure was only referring to one particular month, maybe the one month that Sony was giving out those free disks? I really don't know, but this statement did not jive with what I observed at the store, the rental services, with game console sales, on the computer-tech side, and with standalone player sales. As people filled in some of the details above, it became clear that the 3-1 figure was a bit inflated and when cooler heads prevailed, we found out that it's more like 51-52% in favor of BR, according to that Wall Street Journal article.

Sorry, but your incorrect references to Sony as a "monopoly" and constant sniping about the rootkits just demonstrate an inability to separate your disdain for Sony from any objective discussion of Blu-ray. Saying that my linking to simple market data smacks of yelling "fire" in a crowded theater is nothing more than hyperbole on your part. The market trends are what they are. Just because they don't correspond with what you see in retail stores (a very limited perspective and hardly an unbiased view) and what you wish would happen, does absolutely nothing to contradict the data and what it confirms about the state of the market. Just because the sales trends support the Blu-ray Association's position does not make it false.

My reference to APPROACHING "3-to-1" was a one week trend, but the year-to-date numbers have been consistently 2-to-1 in favor of Blu-ray and that's what my posts have been referencing. The week that Casino Royale comes out, Blu-ray will probably have at least a 3-to-1 advantage. On the HD-DVD side, there's nothing coming out that will likely bring it even close to parity with Blu-ray even for one week, since most of the biggest upcoming HD-DVD titles will simultaneously come out on Blu-ray.

Also, the Wall Street Journal numbers are more than two weeks old. At that point, HD-DVD still had an overall advantage in disc sales (a point that I have made repeatedly). Now, with the latest Videoscan numbers, Blu-ray has vaulted ahead of HD-DVD in overall disc sales.

And I would suggest that you read my prior posts before bringing up the subject of disc giveaways yet again. (Videoscan only tracks what gets sold, not what gets shipped)

So, now to recap -- Blu-ray now has the upper hand in the following areas:

- Week-to-week disc sales (which have been running at least 2-to-1 in favor of Blu-ray since January)
- Year-to-date disc sales
- Total disc sales since inception (Blu-ray just passed HD-DVD last week)
- Total players (despite HD-DVD's headstart and Toshiba subsidizing the early models, standalone Blu-ray and HD-DVD players sold about the same number last year; and the PS3 gives Blu-ray a decided advantage)
- Studio support (5 of 6 major studios, with 3 supporting Blu-ray exclusively)
- Upcoming releases (more library titles, more of the recent top grossing movies)

I've not seen any rental tracking of the two formats, but does any of this point to video stores seeing something totally different? I don't think so.

As I said before, I don't have access to all the data that you have, but I'm only describing what I see. My objection doesn't have the deep statistical analysis and thorough calculations about next month's expected sales, but it does have one reality that can't be ignored so easily: what I observed is also what Joe6p sees when he's browsing around at BB.

What you observed is what you see at YOUR local BB store at this moment. Not exactly a conclusion that can be generalized across the country. It won't matter what Joe6p thinks until the prices on the players come down to their price points, and I think by that time, the store shelves will look very different and the outcome of the format war will already be decided (i.e, Blu-ray wins, or both formats coexist, or the studios and manufacturers pull the plug on both formats).

Another point I've been trying to make, which is what I've taken away from seeing these things unfold with so many other technologies, is that the supremacy of BR is just a prediction and any of a number of scenarios, including the ones I've suggested, could change the fate of BR very quickly. It is simply too early to make predictions, unless one already had pitched their tent in one camp. Certainly all the heated debates are coming from people who've already bought a player, and who thus have a vested interest in their side prevailing. This is hardly a position of neutrality to be arguing from.

Right, and I've thus far bought into neither format. My observations come through assessing where the market advantages point, and at this juncture, nearly all of the advantages point in Blu-ray's direction. The scenarios that you've outlined depend on substantial and unlikely structural changes in the market that need to happen very quickly, and even then, the best case scenario for HD-DVD is no better than a draw. From the outset, Bill Hunt has said that the format war will ultimately be decided by studio support, and I agree with him. It won't matter that HD-DVD pushes the price points through the floor (which Toshiba intends to do by licensing off-brand manufacturers in China) if the majority of the biggest grossing titles remain unavailable in that format.

Since we are talking about movies, I just watched again last night, for the umptieth time, one of my favorite movies (a standard DVD): The Fellowship of the Ring. At the end, all seems hopeless: the forces of evil outnumber all other players and are on the verge of victory. But we all know that by the time the war is well under way, players yet unengaged eventually turn the tide of disaster in favor of men, elves, dwarves, and hobbits. None of these initially unengaged players joined because they were confident their side would win - no, they joined because the winning forces of evil were recklessly attacking their interests. Likewise, if the BR camp, and it's adherent companies trample on too many unengaged players, the tide could very well turn. Think of Blockbuster/Netflix as the Ents... Yes The LOTR is a tale of fantasy, made more potent with active imagination, but tales of fantasy have won real wars in the past.

Nice fantasy tale, but we are talking about reality here. It doesn't matter if you think that Sony's alliance with Dell, Apple, Disney, Fox, Warner, Paramount, Samsung, Sharp, Philips, LG, Panasonic, and Pioneer, among others, represents "the winning forces of evil." Toshiba and Microsoft can't fight a war if two of their biggest partners (Warner and Paramount) represent both sides.

One other factor that played a role in the movie and that could very well play a role in the BR / HD-DVD war is leadership. What if Steve Jobs came out publicly in favor of HD-DVD and actively promoted it as the anti-media platform? The cool factor of standing up for something, anything, in this decade of apathy and misery, would draw millions of young people to his cause, not to mention the millions of iPod / iPhone owners. Maybe his negotiations with Sony for DRM-free music & movies becomes the catalyst for an Aragorn-like champion against the evil empire of corporate media domination. He is already leaning in that direction. This could be the revolution of our time!

It could happen....

Ummm, right. This goes beyond fantasy and more into the rhelm of delusion, since Apple is exclusively in the Blu-ray camp, and on the Blu-ray Association's board of directors. Sorry, but HD-DVD's Aragorn-like champion will more likely take the form of Bill Gates, and that's not exactly someone I would count on to battle "the evil empire of corporate media domination."

With Steve Jobs, he's trying to have it both ways -- look like an advocate for opening up digital media files by simply blaming the record companies for DRM, while still locking down iTunes downloads with his own DRM. At the end of the day, Jobs will do what's best for Apple's bottomline. And if that means talking the anti-DRM talk, while still selling millions of DRM-enabled downloads, then that's what he'll do.

[nightflier]

Actually, that's not a foregone conclusion.

It won't matter what Joe6p thinks until the prices on the players come down to their price points, and I think by that time, the store shelves will look very different and the outcome of the format war will already be decided (i.e, Blu-ray wins, or both formats coexist, or the studios and manufacturers pull the plug on both formats).

This is what you think. It's future speculation.

Right, and I've thus far bought into neither format.

Then why the sheer desire to see H-DVD die a painful death?

My observations come through assessing where the market advantages point, and at this juncture, nearly all of the advantages point in Blu-ray's direction. The scenarios that you've outlined depend

on substantial and unlikely structural changes in the market that need to happen

very quickly, and even then, the best case scenario for HD-DVD is no better than a

draw. From the outset, Bill Hunt has said that the format war will ultimately be

decided by studio support, and I agree with him. It won't matter that HD-DVD

pushes the price points through the floor (which Toshiba intends to do by licensing

off-brand manufacturers in China) if the majority of the biggest grossing titles

remain unavailable in that format.

Yes, I know. It's been repeated ad nauseum. The figures you site are deduced by research firms who look at current trends, take polls, analyze sales figures, etc. It's all very scientific, I'm sure, but how accurate is this, really? I remember reading that just before the 2004 elections, that the Dems had John Kerry's poll numbers well ahead of Bush, while the RNC's polls had Bush winning by a landslide. Or for an example that I'm more familiar with, Microsoft is claiming that Windows server outperforms Linux and the Linux camp obviously says otherwise. So I guess it's all where you stand. What's the old expression? Those who are in power write the history books, or something like that. What I do know is that in my own environment, where I've had an opportunity to fine-tune each system (unload unnecessary processes, recompile Kernels, etc.), my Linux server beats the pants off Windows. Now maybe my observations don't amount to a hill of beans in the statisticians' logs, but they do in my in my own environment. And yet, there isn't a metric, poll, or statistic in the maintsream media that has the independence or guts to announce that the emperor has no clothes.

Nice fantasy tale, but we are talking about reality here.

I did say that it was a fantasy, but I also said that fantasy tales can win real wars. Sometimes it's just an idea, a belief, a hope that spreads like wildfire and brings about revolutions in a very short time. There are plenty of examples throughout history.

It doesn't matter if you think that Sony's alliance with Dell, Apple, Disney, Fox, Warner, Paramount, Samsung, Sharp, Philips, LG, Panasonic, and Pioneer, among others, represents "the winning forces of evil." Toshiba and Microsoft can't fight a war if two of their biggest partners (Warner and Paramount) represent both sides.

Wow, now it doesn't matter what I think anymore? I thought this message board was to share opinions. Anyhow, you're lumping a bunch of companies together without differentiating how much of the market they represent or what technologies. For example, there is a big difference between the studios, the consumer electronic companies and a company like Microsoft which primarily produces software. They are all approaching the formats from very different positions. It sounds great to list off a bunch of company names for one camp, but how much of an impact do they have together? And many of the companies you list are in both camps, so let's call a spade a spade shall we. Or is someone else using of hyperbole?

Ummm, right. This goes beyond fantasy and more into the rhelm of delusion, since Apple is exclusively in the Blu-ray camp, and on the Blu-ray Association's board of directors.

I didn't say Jobs was currently in the HD-DVD camp. I said that if his negociations with Sony and Fox went sour, he wouldn't loose too much cred jumping on the HD-DVD train. Considering how much influence Microsoft has over Apple these days, that's not a stretch.

Sorry, but HD-DVD's Aragorn-like champion will more likely

take the form of Bill Gates, and that's not exactly someone I would count on to

battle "the evil empire of corporate media domination."

I didn't say that, nor did I suggest it.

With Steve Jobs, he's trying to have it both ways -- look like an advocate for opening up digital media files by simply blaming the record companies for DRM, while still locking down iTunes downloads with his own DRM. At the end of the day, Jobs will do what's best for Apple's bottomline. And if that means talking the anti-DRM talk, while still selling millions of DRM-enabled downloads, then that's what he'll do.

Whatever his motivation may be (and I don't agree with you that he is completely bottom-line oriented), he is still seen as an icon in many circles. He definitely could be that savior that so many disaffected people are looking to. Now if he ran for president, not even Clinton would win!

[Woochifer]

Actually, that's not a foregone conclusion.

And I never said that it was, but claiming that my simple recitation of factual market data is akin to screaming fire in a movie theater is quite a hyperbolic stretch on your part.

This is what you think. It's future speculation.

Yup, but at least my speculation is grounded in how the market is currently structured. Your scenarios depend on large-scale changes to the market structure that are either unlikely or illogical. Big difference.

Then why the sheer desire to see H-DVD die a painful death?

HD-DVD can go on its merry way for all I care, but I think that as far as a consensus HD disc format goes, its window has already closed. Too many established trends have to reverse just for HD-DVD to force a draw in the format war. For me as a consumer, I want a clear cut winner and I want this format war to end ASAP. I could care less which format wins. I simply prefer clarity in the market, and right now, Blu-ray is far better positioned to quickly establish that clarity so that the HD video disc market can grow from there. HD video discs have got enough market impediments to deal with without a format war further dragging things down.

So, obviously I would like Universal to go neutral so that one of the two HD disc formats would have 100% coverage on the major studio releases. If the market were lined up with 5 of the 6 studios supporting HD-DVD with Sony as the lone hold out for Blu-ray, I would prefer that HD-DVD emerge as the format of choice.

Yes, I know. It's been repeated ad nauseum. The figures you site are deduced by research firms who look at current trends, take polls, analyze sales figures, etc. It's all very scientific, I'm sure, but how accurate is this, really? I remember reading that just before the 2004 elections, that the Dems had John Kerry's poll numbers well ahead of Bush, while the RNC's polls had Bush winning by a landslide. Or for an example that I'm more familiar with, Microsoft is claiming that Windows server outperforms Linux and the Linux camp obviously says otherwise. So I guess it's all where you stand. What's the old expression? Those who are in power write the history books, or something like that. What I do know is that in my own environment, where I've had an opportunity to fine-tune each system (unload unnecessary processes, recompile Kernels, etc.), my Linux server beats the pants off Windows. Now maybe my observations don't amount to a hill of beans in the statisticians' logs, but they do in my in my own environment. And yet, there isn't a metric, poll, or statistic in the maintsream media that has the independence or guts to announce that the emperor has no clothes.

Your examples though have nothing to do with looking at how a market's structure directly correlates to the sales trends. Even when HD-DVD held the sales lead due to its earlier launch, Blu-ray's structural advantage was well known and well documented. It was only a matter of time when the companies backing Blu-ray began to exercise that market advantage, and now the sales trends simply confirm what analysts had been predicting all along.

Opinion poll numbers have a margin of error because they are based on small statistical samples. The Videoscan numbers are based on actual sales, which means that they are more akin to an actual vote count than a poll sample that might make up less than 0.1% of the actual votes cast. Like I said, the HD-DVD fanboys have been trying to debunk these numbers on other sites, but all they have to go on is their own biased observations and wishful thinking. Both sides have made plenty of claims, the difference right now is that the Blu-ray claims are more grounded in reality. If the market data is as questionable and subject to interpretation as you speculate, then why haven't any of the Blu-ray Association members gone neutral since the format actually launched?

You can make arguments about technical superiority or personal preference, but it does nothing to change how the market trends go. To this day, I'll vouch for the technical superiority of Betamax over VHS. But, my beliefs didn't mean squat once my neighborhood video stores and then the major studios quit supporting the Beta format, thus forcing me to bite the bullet and buy a VHS machine. Wishful thinking does not make it so.

Wow, now it doesn't matter what I think anymore? I thought this message board was to share opinions. Anyhow, you're lumping a bunch of companies together without differentiating how much of the market they represent or what technologies. For example, there is a big difference between the studios, the consumer electronic companies and a company like Microsoft which primarily produces software. They are all approaching the formats from very different positions. It sounds great to list off a bunch of company names for one camp, but how much of an impact do they have together? And many of the companies you list are in both camps, so let's call a spade a spade shall we. Or is someone else using of hyperbole?

Let's not get all self-righteous here. You're the one who's comparing Blu-ray to "the winning forces of evil," and implying some value judgment on a topic that's nothing more than two coalitions of companies trying to separate consumers from their money.

Saying that I'm simply "lumping a bunch of companies together" is just more ignorance of the many points that I've been making all along on this thread. Here is how the market is shaping up by category --

Studios - point made many times, Blu-ray has a decided advantage with studio support. More titles, more of the high grossing titles coming out on Blu-ray. Most of the big HD-DVD releases will simultaneously come out on Blu-ray, whereas more than half of the biggest upcoming releases on Blu-ray will not come out on HD-DVD

Player manufacturers - Another decided advantage for Blu-ray. Toshiba is currently the only manufacturer making HD-DVD drives, with LG (and soon Samsung) making dual-format drives that aren't fully compatible with HD-DVD. Toshiba's only new manufacturing partners are off-brand outsourcers in China. Blu-ray has just about every other major consumer electronics company already manufacturing or about to come out with Blu-ray players. That's a lot of companies marketing the Blu-ray format, and a lot of shelf space at retail stores. This is no different than when the Betamax VCRs had to fight for visibility against an onslaught of VHS marketing and a far greater number of VHS models to choose from.

Computer integrators - HD-DVD has Microsoft and Intel. Blu-ray has Dell and Apple. HP and Gateway are neutral. This is the only market where neither format has a decided advantage at the moment, but here, Blu-ray has a technical advantage in its larger storage capacity. Plus, Sony, Panasonic, TDK, and JVC, among others, have been working on enhancements to the disc capacity, disc durability, DVD/Blu-ray hybrid capability, and production yields. You have more companies involved in technical development on the Blu-ray side. Even the dual-format drive developed by LG starts off as a Blu-ray burner and simply adds HD-DVD read-only capabilities (and at the moment, it does not support Microsoft's iHD disc authoring format).

Only a few of the companies that I listed in the Blu-ray camp are in both camps. Look at any source, and you'll see that the industry support for Blu-ray is more widespread.

I didn't say Jobs was currently in the HD-DVD camp. I said that if his negociations with Sony and Fox went sour, he wouldn't loose too much cred jumping on the HD-DVD train. Considering how much influence Microsoft has over Apple these days, that's not a stretch.

But, that ignores the basic fact that Apple is a board member in the Blu-ray Association. Rumors are that Apple will start replacing its SuperDrive with Blu-ray drives in Macs sometime this year. Apple has a history of going with the newer technologies over enhancements of existing formats, which is what HD-DVD is. They were the first ones to go with the 3.5" floppies, and the first ones to include CD-ROM drives across their entire product line. Universally adopting Blu-ray drives across the board would be consistent with how Apple has operated over the years.

Whatever his motivation may be (and I don't agree with you that he is completely bottom-line oriented), he is still seen as an icon in many circles. He definitely could be that savior that so many disaffected people are looking to. Now if he ran for president, not even Clinton would win!

You talking about Hillary or Bill?

Sure, he's seen as an icon, but at the core, he remains a businessman. IMO, his public pronouncements in favor of open media files are brilliant PR and marketing, even if they're full of crap when you follow the money trail. He's having it both ways by propping up this image as an anti-DRM champion and claiming that his hands are tied by the record companies; and all the while his company makes billions selling proprietary music players and DRM-enabled downloads. Until he actually backs up his rhetoric with actions (i.e., opening up the iPod, and/or forcing the record companies' hand by leveraging iTunes' market position to push for open media files), I'll just interpret his latest directive for what it is -- absolutely brilliant marketing and image building. Doesn't matter what the reality actually is because he has so deftly defined the perception.

[PeruvianSkies]

Nightflier,

You are wasting your precious time typing away with Woochifer. Apparently you have not been informed that he is never wrong about anything and that his opinions are law. Anyone who argues with him over any matter is immediately wrong and he will go down with the ship fighting tooth and nail to disprove your thoughts, feelings, and opinions. He actually knows more about you than you do. When it comes to Home Theater, Audio & Video, etc etc he is a scholar or unprecedented achievement and in the back of the Encyclopedia Brittanica you will see that Woochifer is the source for all knowledge known to man. Oh, and I can't wait to see his response to this. I'm sure i'll have to spend 20 minutes reading his dissertation regarding things that I have said in the past and pointing out just how inferier all of us are to him, and his "neverending DVD collection" which is sure to be surpassed one day by his "neverending blu-ray" collection. In my mind the only thing that is "neverending" is his useless ramblings and debates that he continues to have on this site!

[nightflier]

Nightflier,

You are wasting your precious time typing away with Woochifer. Apparently you have not been informed that he is never wrong about anything and that his opinions are law. Anyone who argues with him over any matter is immediately wrong and he will go down with the ship fighting tooth and nail to disprove your thoughts, feelings, and opinions. He actually knows more about you than you do. When it comes to Home Theater, Audio & Video, etc etc he is a scholar or unprecedented achievement and in the back of the Encyclopedia Brittanica you will see that Woochifer is the source for all knowledge known to man. Oh, and I can't wait to see his response to this. I'm sure i'll have to spend 20 minutes reading his dissertation regarding things that I have said in the past and pointing out just how inferier all of us are to him, and his "neverending DVD collection" which is sure to be surpassed one day by his "neverending blu-ray" collection. In my mind the only thing that is "neverending" is his useless ramblings and debates that he continues to have on this site!

It sounds like I'm up against Jack Bauer. Maybe I can have Wooch shipped off to China for a couple of years of "re-education" so that we can discuss this with a few other people on this thread.

Well, all I'm saying is this:

- It's still too early to start cheering for BR, especially since Microsoft could still pull an October Surprise on us.
- Proclaiming the victory for BR at this stage smacks of trying to influence the undecideds.
- Who's really feeding the Videoscan beast?

[Woochifer]

Nightflier,

You are wasting your precious time typing away with Woochifer. Apparently you have not been informed that he is never wrong about anything and that his opinions are law. Anyone who argues with him over any matter is immediately wrong and he will go down with the ship fighting tooth and nail to disprove your thoughts, feelings, and opinions. He actually knows more about you than you do. When it comes to Home Theater, Audio & Video, etc etc he is a scholar or unprecedented achievement and in the back of the Encyclopedia Brittanica you will see that Woochifer is the source for all knowledge known to man. Oh, and I can't wait to see his response to this. I'm sure i'll have to spend 20 minutes reading his dissertation regarding things that I have said in the past and pointing out just how inferier all of us are to him, and his "neverending DVD collection" which is sure to be surpassed one day by his "neverending blu-ray" collection. In my mind the only thing that is "neverending" is his useless ramblings and debates that he continues to have on this site!

Nice to see that you've taken a break from your world tour of XXX houses and dollar theaters to chime in with yet another one of your "on topic" missives!

[Woochifer]

Well, all I'm saying is this:

- It's still too early to start cheering for BR, especially since Microsoft could still pull an October Surprise on us.
- Proclaiming the victory for BR at this stage smacks of trying to influence the undecideds.
- Who's really feeding the Videoscan beast?

Well, guess what ... I've never denied that the Blu-ray Association is trying to influence the undecideds, just as the HD-DVD proponents are trying the same thing. The difference is that HD-DVD has absolutely nothing they can tout that contradicts Blu-ray's proclamation. Saying that some "October Surprise" could happen really is grasping at straws when all of the market trends have simply confirmed what most analysts had been predicting before both of the formats launched. No matter what Microsoft does, it won't impact the market unless anyone can force Fox and Disney to go neutral.

As far as Videoscan goes, these are the numbers that trade publications and all of the major studios subscribe to in order to track their video sales, so even members of the HD-DVD camp are "feeding the Videoscan beast." It is the same company that puts out the Soundscan data that Billboard magazine and all of the major record companies use to track album sales. The January data release was the first time that they published separate charts for the HD disc formats, and it was the first bit of tracking data that was not first filtered and cherry picked by either camp.

[nightflier]

Well, guess what ... I've never denied that the Blu-ray Association is trying to influence the undecideds

Jack,

Isn't it you that's trying to influence the undecideds on this board? 'Cmon admit it, you can't wait to buy that shiny new PS3....

As far as Videoscan goes, these are the numbers that trade publications and all of the major studios subscribe to in order to track their video sales

Videoscan / ACNielsen, of Dun & Bradstreet Corp., right? That "Corp." part already rubs the wrong way, but here's some history for ya:

"CHICAGO --(Business Wire)-- Feb. 16, 2006 -- Information Resources, Inc. and Information Resources, Inc. Litigation Contingent Payment Rights Trust (OTC BB:IRICR.OB) announced today that IRI and defendants A.C. Nielsen Co. (now owned by VNU, N.V.), R. H. Donnelley Corporation (formerly known as The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation) and IMS Health Incorporated (successor to IMS International, Inc.) have reached a full settlement of IRI's claims in its antitrust lawsuit against the defendants, entitled Information Resources, Inc. v. The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation, A.C. Nielsen Co. and IMS International, Inc., No. 05-0564. IRI filed this lawsuit in July 1996 in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, alleging that the defendants violated Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. Sections 1 and 2, and the common law by engaging in a series of unlawful practices through which IRI claimed that defendants attempted to regain monopoly power in the U.S. market for retail tracking services and exclude competition from several markets outside the U.S. where A.C. Nielsen dominated. The case was dismissed by the District Court in January 2005 and is presently on appeal before the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit."

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/02/16/1380613.htm

And they have had several other questionable lawsuits, if I recall. The problem with Videoscan is that they are not independent enough. I'm not saying that their information on BR & HD-DVD sales is completely incorrect, I'm just saying that it should be taken with a grain of salt.

[PeruvianSkies]

Nice to see that you've taken a break from your world tour of XXX houses and dollar theaters to chime in with yet another one of your "on topic" missives!

Darn, Woochifer really let me down on this one, I was expected a lengthy response, instead I was only half right, he brought up something that I said before, which was regarding how I would rather watch a movie in the cheapest, dirtiest, low budget theater than watch a movie at his house. Oh well.

[Woochifer]

Jack,

Isn't it you that's trying to influence the undecideds on this board? 'Cmon admit it, you can't wait to buy that shiny new PS3....

Nope, what I can't wait to buy first is the HDTV. Everything else will have to follow suit thereafter. Contrary to your implication here, I had been of the opinion that HD-DVD and Blu-ray would coexist with dual-format players and discs. But, after seeing how the sales trends have shaped up, and how the studio support and upcoming releases will likely widen Blu-ray's lead, I'm now much more in agreement with what Bill Hunt has been saying all along -- the studio support will drive the market.

Videoscan / ACNielsen, of Dun & Bradstreet Corp., right? That "Corp." part already rubs the wrong way, but here's some history for ya:

"CHICAGO --(Business Wire)-- Feb. 16, 2006 -- Information Resources, Inc. and Information Resources, Inc. Litigation Contingent Payment Rights Trust (OTC BB:IRICR.OB) announced today that IRI and defendants A.C. Nielsen Co. (now owned by VNU, N.V.), R. H. Donnelley Corporation (formerly known as The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation) and IMS Health Incorporated (successor to IMS International, Inc.) have reached a full settlement of IRI's claims in its antitrust lawsuit against the defendants, entitled Information Resources, Inc. v. The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation, A.C. Nielsen Co. and IMS International, Inc., No. 05-0564. IRI filed this lawsuit in July 1996 in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, alleging that the defendants violated Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. Sections 1 and 2, and the common law by engaging in a series of unlawful practices through which IRI claimed that defendants attempted to regain monopoly power in the U.S. market for retail tracking services and exclude competition from several markets outside the U.S. where A.C. Nielsen dominated. The case was dismissed by the District Court in January 2005 and is presently on appeal before the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit."

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/02/16/1380613.htm

And they have had several other questionable lawsuits, if I recall. The problem with Videoscan is that they are not independent enough. I'm not saying that their information on BR & HD-DVD sales is completely incorrect, I'm just saying that it should be taken with a grain of salt.

So, they've been sued for allegedly exercising market power to freeze out competing retail tracking services, and the case was dismissed. It doesn't say anything about the validity or "independence" of the data source. For my work, I subscribe to D&B and several other business data sources. Their objectivity and accuracy are what they sell, and any limitations on that data is spelled out up front. If there's any question about the reliability of their data or they fail to keep me informed on the data limitations, I would simply cancel the subscription.

So, if this Videoscan data should "be taken with a grain of salt" then why do the major studios and trade publications such as Billboard and Video Business subscribe to it? There's very little to interpret here. Videoscan and Soundscan are point-of-sale tracking services that keep count of retail sales for specific titles. Universal has had multiple opportunities to dispute and raise questions about the data, but they've done nothing in response other than tout HD-DVD's superior "attach rate" (i.e., the average number of discs purchased per player). Maybe it has something to do with Universal knowing that Videoscan uses an extensive and valid tracking methodology, and the fact that they use the data themselves to track and analyze their home video sales?

[PeruvianSkies]

Nope, what I can't wait to buy first is the HDTV. Everything else will have to follow suit thereafter. Contrary to your implication here, I had been of the opinion that HD-DVD and Blu-ray would coexist with dual-format players and discs. But, after seeing how the sales trends have shaped up, and how the studio support and upcoming releases will likely widen Blu-ray's lead, I'm now much more in agreement with what Bill Hunt has been saying all along -- the studio support will drive the market.



So, they've been sued for allegedly exercising market power to freeze out competing retail tracking services, and the case was dismissed. It doesn't say anything about the validity or "independence" of the data source. For my work, I subscribe to D&B and several other business data sources. Their objectivity and accuracy are what they sell, and any limitations on that data is spelled out up front. If there's any question about the reliability of their data or they fail to keep me informed on the data limitations, I would simply cancel the subscription.

So, if this Videoscan data should "be taken with a grain of salt" then why do the major studios and trade publications such as Billboard and Video Business subscribe to it? There's very little to interpret here. Videoscan and Soundscan are point-of-sale tracking services that keep count of retail sales for specific titles. Universal has had multiple opportunities to dispute and raise questions about the data, but they've done nothing in response other than tout HD-DVD's superior "attach rate" (i.e., the average number of discs purchased per player). Maybe it has something to do with Universal knowing that Videoscan uses an extensive and valid tracking methodology, and the fact that they use the data themselves to track and analyze their home video sales?

THE DIGITAL BITS acts like there is hardly any product for either format, and their reviews for the HD formats are few and far between, yet there are hundreds of titles available now. At FULVUEDRIVE-IN.COM we have covered nearly every HD title released to this date!!!

[kexodusc]

THE DIGITAL BITS acts like there is hardly any product for either format, and their reviews for the HD formats are few and far between, yet there are hundreds of titles available now. At FULVUEDRIVE-IN.COM we have covered nearly every HD title released to this date!!!

Wow, you work for FULVUEDRIVE-IN.com? We could use movie reviewer here...hint, hint..
Back OT, not sure what the coverage of HD titles by a review site has to do with the sales trends and predicting a format war winner? Can you elaborate?

I think there's some merit to what Wooch is saying - so far the majority of Studios have held to their guns supporting BluRay, and BluRay in turn has gathered some unexpected early momentum. This usually doesn't happen in format wars, and when it does it's even more rare to see the trailing format recover and pull off a victory. If I had to guess now, I'd be split between BluRay winning, and both formats continuing to exist indefinitely, though I think the latter is unlikely because the industry benefits much more from one format. I think it's extremely unlikely HD-DVD can emerge the winner now. For the good of the industry, I hope one side wins in clear fashion. Not like SACD beat out DVD-A (and I suppose the jury's still out on that as both formats enjoy the sporadic new release). Originally I picked HD-DVD because it was suppose to be cheaper. I thought this make it an easy win. That hasn't been the case, they're aren't cheaper (at least in my neck of the woods, and not significantly so from what I've seen) so I'm indifferent now.

It's not the people who already bought HD-DVD or BluRay players who will decide the outcome, but rather the will-be buyers. If I had to buy a player, and I knew that 75% of studios backed BluRay, and thus 75% of movies are guaranteed to be on that format, I'd buy a BluRay player. Just seems drastically less risky. Than picking the format with a downside of 25%. Herd-mentality is how a consumer-based economy works, people follow the leader.

I also think Nightflier's right in his assessment that loyalty to either format is on a day-to-day basis, so she ain't over 'till it's over. But until I see an HD-DVD from Fox or Disney, I can't see HD-DVD making this battle even close in the long-term. If I were BluRay I'd be slapping a sticker on every single piece of hardware that states something to this effect, thus creating a deterrent to buying HD-DVD players. As store selection builds,up and shelf space gets scarce retailers are going to have to choose which formats to stock. If BluRay is significantly closer to being the one-size fits all solution, stores are going to pick BluRay. Right now, it seems pretty evenly split in the stores I visit. Though neither displays are all the impressive.

Most buyers are on the fence still. That's the key. If by this time next year there's more titles available on BluRay, and BluRay continues to boast that it's outselling HD-DVD 2 to 1 or more, I think it's pretty safe to say the game is over.

And let's not kid ourselves here - all the posturing BluRay is doing now is exactly what it takes to win a format war. Doesn't matter if it's 100% accurate, or even close to being true, if the public percieves it to be true, and it influences buying decisions, the goal is accomplished.
HD-DVD has to start increasing demand, and supply (on the software side)! It's hard to increase demand if primary function of the unit is significantly limited (fewer available titles to play in the future) than your competitor. It's hard to increase the supply of the software if the sales figures the Studios are reading suggest BluRay has significant momentum now, simply because there's less incentive to support a losing format.

All I can say is it's still early, so any momentum BluRay has has to at least be sustained, if not grown before we'll know for sure.

It'll be interesting to see if a Studio thinks there's enough profitabilty in HD-DVD to withdraw it's exlusive support, and offer titles in both formats, even if BluRay is winning. These guys might just want a bigger piece of a bigger pie. For this reason, I think it's too early to write off HD-DVD just yet. But then again, it would seem Universal would have the most compeling reason to make that switch...

Sit back and see what happens, I guess.

[Woochifer]

Wow, you work for FULVUEDRIVE-IN.com? We could use movie reviewer here...hint, hint..
Back OT, not sure what the coverage of HD titles by a review site has to do with the sales trends and predicting a format war winner? Can you elaborate?

Yup, sounds like a familiar script to you too, eh?

I think there's some merit to what Wooch is saying - so far the majority of Studios have held to their guns supporting BluRay, and BluRay in turn has gathered some unexpected early momentum. This usually doesn't happen in format wars, and when it does it's even more rare to see the trailing format recover and pull off a victory. If I had to guess now, I'd be split between BluRay winning, and both formats continuing to exist indefinitely, though I think the latter is unlikely because the industry benefits much more from one format. I think it's extremely unlikely HD-DVD can emerge the winner now. For the good of the industry, I hope one side wins in clear fashion. Not like SACD beat out DVD-A (and I suppose the jury's still out on that as both formats enjoy the sporadic new release). Originally I picked HD-DVD because it was suppose to be cheaper. I thought this make it an easy win. That hasn't been the case, they're aren't cheaper (at least in my neck of the woods, and not significantly so from what I've seen) so I'm indifferent now.

I tend to think that HD-DVD had a more successful launch than anyone expected. If you'll recall, the Blu-ray proponents early on were claiming that HD-DVD would have inferior performance and be limited to 1080i. Once Toshiba got the firmware releases out, HD-DVD built up a lot of good will by performing a lot better than anyone expected and coming in at an attractive entry price. And with 1080p capability, HD-DVD has been every bit the equal of Blu-ray in terms of picture and audio quality.

On the other hand, Blu-ray had a problematic launch, and was hampered by production delays, capacity constraints due to the lack of reliable dual-layered disc media, a less-than-stellar debut player from Samsung, and the lack of authoring tools for MPEG-4 and VC-1 compression on the initial set of Blu-ray releases (forcing those discs to use the less efficient MPEG-2 compression). But, while those issues (that have since been resolved) created an early perception that Blu-ray was "losing" the format war, Blu-ray still had a larger stable of manufacturing partners on board, and a decided advantage with studio support. The sales trends since November are more a reflection of that advantage anything.

HD-DVD's price advantage on the hardware front will likely remain intact since Toshiba is licensing off-brand manufacturers. While the disc prices have up to this point been equal, I noticed that the Blu-ray discs for The Prestige and Casino Royale carry list prices of $38, which is $8 higher than the DVD. I would hope that this isn't a sign of the Blu-ray camp declaring victory by creating a bloated price premium, but it would not surprise me if this was the case.

I also think Nightflier's right in his assessment that loyalty to either format is on a day-to-day basis, so she ain't over 'till it's over. But until I see an HD-DVD from Fox or Disney, I can't see HD-DVD making this battle even close in the long-term. If I were BluRay I'd be slapping a sticker on every single piece of hardware that states something to this effect, thus creating a deterrent to buying HD-DVD players. As store selection builds,up and shelf space gets scarce retailers are going to have to choose which formats to stock. If BluRay is significantly closer to being the one-size fits all solution, stores are going to pick BluRay. Right now, it seems pretty evenly split in the stores I visit. Though neither displays are all the impressive.

Agreed. So long as you don't have major changes to how the market is structured, Blu-ray can only widen its lead. These changes aren't outside the rhelm of possibility, but a lot has to happen for HD-DVD just to compete on an even basis, while Blu-ray only needs neutrality from Universal to effectively put the format war to an end. Today, the Digital Bits reported the upcoming HD-DVD release schedule from Universal, but also indicated that rumors are buzzing that Universal's home video division has "some executive upheaval" in progress. The earlier rumors about Fox and/or Disney going neutral have been emphatically snuffed out since then.

Most buyers are on the fence still. That's the key. If by this time next year there's more titles available on BluRay, and BluRay continues to boast that it's outselling HD-DVD 2 to 1 or more, I think it's pretty safe to say the game is over.

The Betamax was already at a 2-to-1 disadvantage by the time video rental stores started appearing. The format war for Beta IMO was lost on the retail side, because video stores consistently stocked more VHS titles, even though both formats had equal studio support.

And let's not kid ourselves here - all the posturing BluRay is doing now is exactly what it takes to win a format war. Doesn't matter if it's 100% accurate, or even close to being true, if the public percieves it to be true, and it influences buying decisions, the goal is accomplished.
HD-DVD has to start increasing demand, and supply (on the software side)! It's hard to increase demand if primary function of the unit is significantly limited (fewer available titles to play in the future) than your competitor. It's hard to increase the supply of the software if the sales figures the Studios are reading suggest BluRay has significant momentum now, simply because there's less incentive to support a losing format.

Both sides have been doing their share of posturing, but it just seems that the Blu-ray Association is going all out on all fronts to win the format war. You're right that the reality doesn't matter, so long as the perception is created. I see no such PR effort coming from the HD-DVD camp.

Personally, I think this format war has to end ASAP for sake of the HD disc market. HD downloading and on-demand services have an opportunity to step into the breach so long as the HD disc media market remains constrained by the uncertainty that the format war has created. Right now, I think the majority of consumers remain more comfortable with standalone players and disc media, but that will change and for HD-DVD and Blu-ray alike, they need to get their installed base in place before competing services gain a foothold. IMO, that's the more interesting format war coming up.

[PeruvianSkies]

Wow, you work for FULVUEDRIVE-IN.com? We could use movie reviewer here...hint, hint..
Back OT, not sure what the coverage of HD titles by a review site has to do with the sales trends and predicting a format war winner? Can you elaborate?

I think there's some merit to what Wooch is saying - so far the majority of Studios have held to their guns supporting BluRay, and BluRay in turn has gathered some unexpected early momentum. This usually doesn't happen in format wars, and when it does it's even more rare to see the trailing format recover and pull off a victory. If I had to guess now, I'd be split between BluRay winning, and both formats continuing to exist indefinitely, though I think the latter is unlikely because the industry benefits much more from one format. I think it's extremely unlikely HD-DVD can emerge the winner now. For the good of the industry, I hope one side wins in clear fashion. Not like SACD beat out DVD-A (and I suppose the jury's still out on that as both formats enjoy the sporadic new release). Originally I picked HD-DVD because it was suppose to be cheaper. I thought this make it an easy win. That hasn't been the case, they're aren't cheaper (at least in my neck of the woods, and not significantly so from what I've seen) so I'm indifferent now.

It's not the people who already bought HD-DVD or BluRay players who will decide the outcome, but rather the will-be buyers. If I had to buy a player, and I knew that 75% of studios backed BluRay, and thus 75% of movies are guaranteed to be on that format, I'd buy a BluRay player. Just seems drastically less risky. Than picking the format with a downside of 25%. Herd-mentality is how a consumer-based economy works, people follow the leader.

I also think Nightflier's right in his assessment that loyalty to either format is on a day-to-day basis, so she ain't over 'till it's over. But until I see an HD-DVD from Fox or Disney, I can't see HD-DVD making this battle even close in the long-term. If I were BluRay I'd be slapping a sticker on every single piece of hardware that states something to this effect, thus creating a deterrent to buying HD-DVD players. As store selection builds,up and shelf space gets scarce retailers are going to have to choose which formats to stock. If BluRay is significantly closer to being the one-size fits all solution, stores are going to pick BluRay. Right now, it seems pretty evenly split in the stores I visit. Though neither displays are all the impressive.

Most buyers are on the fence still. That's the key. If by this time next year there's more titles available on BluRay, and BluRay continues to boast that it's outselling HD-DVD 2 to 1 or more, I think it's pretty safe to say the game is over.

And let's not kid ourselves here - all the posturing BluRay is doing now is exactly what it takes to win a format war. Doesn't matter if it's 100% accurate, or even close to being true, if the public percieves it to be true, and it influences buying decisions, the goal is accomplished.
HD-DVD has to start increasing demand, and supply (on the software side)! It's hard to increase demand if primary function of the unit is significantly limited (fewer available titles to play in the future) than your competitor. It's hard to increase the supply of the software if the sales figures the Studios are reading suggest BluRay has significant momentum now, simply because there's less incentive to support a losing format.

All I can say is it's still early, so any momentum BluRay has has to at least be sustained, if not grown before we'll know for sure.

It'll be interesting to see if a Studio thinks there's enough profitabilty in HD-DVD to withdraw it's exlusive support, and offer titles in both formats, even if BluRay is winning. These guys might just want a bigger piece of a bigger pie. For this reason, I think it's too early to write off HD-DVD just yet. But then again, it would seem Universal would have the most compeling reason to make that switch...

Sit back and see what happens, I guess.

First, let's start with the basics of why a 'review' site exists. First, it exists to inform the consumer. Wait, let's stop there. The purpose of the website that I write for is purely non-advertisement, which means we don't get kick backs for writing reviews, in fact the only payment we receive is free product. We are solely committed to informing the consumer and we try to be as fair as possible with our critiquing.

So, how does that effect sales? It can help or hurt sales for one. Apparently you thought that these two things were night and day. While we don't get money for the sales of certain titles, we are certainly in favor of people buying good product. If you check our reviews and comments for the HD formats you will see that we are trying to keep the consumer as informed as possible. Other sites are not adequently covering the HD formats, therefore there seems to be less consumer knowledge out there about the formats, or the quality of the formats.

When I read a good DVD review on a website I am likely to be inclined to check it out or be curious, same with HD formats, but even more imperative as we are trying to help these formats succeed. Our reviews are free advertising for the product. We endorse the quality ones and we reject the ones that are subpar. If more websites would begin to do HD reviews and help to push the market I think it would clearly make this format war go quicker.

[PeruvianSkies]

Yup, sounds like a familiar script to you too, eh?



I tend to think that HD-DVD had a more successful launch than anyone expected. If you'll recall, the Blu-ray proponents early on were claiming that HD-DVD would have inferior performance and be limited to 1080i. Once Toshiba got the firmware releases out, HD-DVD built up a lot of good will by performing a lot better than anyone expected and coming in at an attractive entry price. And with 1080p capability, HD-DVD has been every bit the equal of Blu-ray in terms of picture and audio quality.

On the other hand, Blu-ray had a problematic launch, and was hampered by production delays, capacity constraints due to the lack of reliable dual-layered disc media, a less-than-stellar debut player from Samsung, and the lack of authoring tools for MPEG-4 and VC-1 compression on the initial set of Blu-ray releases (forcing those discs to use the less efficient MPEG-2 compression). But, while those issues (that have since been resolved) created an early perception that Blu-ray was "losing" the format war, Blu-ray still had a larger stable of manufacturing partners on board, and a decided advantage with studio support. The sales trends since November are more a reflection of that advantage anything.

HD-DVD's price advantage on the hardware front will likely remain intact since Toshiba is licensing off-brand manufacturers. While the disc prices have up to this point been equal, I noticed that the Blu-ray discs for The Prestige and Casino Royale carry list prices of $38, which is $8 higher than the DVD. I would hope that this isn't a sign of the Blu-ray camp declaring victory by creating a bloated price premium, but it would not surprise me if this was the case.



Agreed. So long as you don't have major changes to how the market is structured, Blu-ray can only widen its lead. These changes aren't outside the rhelm of possibility, but a lot has to happen for HD-DVD just to compete on an even basis, while Blu-ray only needs neutrality from Universal to effectively put the format war to an end. Today, the Digital Bits reported the upcoming HD-DVD release schedule from Universal, but also indicated that rumors are buzzing that Universal's home video division has "some executive upheaval" in progress. The earlier rumors about Fox and/or Disney going neutral have been emphatically snuffed out since then.



The Betamax was already at a 2-to-1 disadvantage by the time video rental stores started appearing. The format war for Beta IMO was lost on the retail side, because video stores consistently stocked more VHS titles, even though both formats had equal studio support.



Both sides have been doing their share of posturing, but it just seems that the Blu-ray Association is going all out on all fronts to win the format war. You're right that the reality doesn't matter, so long as the perception is created. I see no such PR effort coming from the HD-DVD camp.

Personally, I think this format war has to end ASAP for sake of the HD disc market. HD downloading and on-demand services have an opportunity to step into the breach so long as the HD disc media market remains constrained by the uncertainty that the format war has created. Right now, I think the majority of consumers remain more comfortable with standalone players and disc media, but that will change and for HD-DVD and Blu-ray alike, they need to get their installed base in place before competing services gain a foothold. IMO, that's the more interesting format war coming up.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blahhhhhhhhhh. The almighty Wooch has graced us with his infinite knowledge once again. One word: YAWN. I am just excited to hear what his ever-so-snappy comeback will be this time? Hmm, budget movie theater/xxx movie theaters....maybe he'll find some new material.

[Woochifer]

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blahhhhhhhhhh. The almighty Wooch has graced us with his infinite knowledge once again. One word: YAWN. I am just excited to hear what his ever-so-snappy comeback will be this time? Hmm, budget movie theater/xxx movie theaters....maybe he'll find some new material.

Translation of the latest PeruvianSkies/wannabeebrokenprinterdiscreviewerdude cry room tantrum: Me gots nothin' substantive to add, but me desperate for attention! WAAAAAHHHH!!!

[PeruvianSkies]

Translation of the latest PeruvianSkies/wannabeebrokenprinterdiscreviewerdude cry room tantrum: Me gots nothin' substantive to add, but me desperate for attention! WAAAAAHHHH!!!

Good one. I should have known that instead of going for a straight-out-snappy-line that you would opt for the "translation" bit, since you obviously know me better than I know myself and are fit for translating what I said. Which is typical since you seem to think that your opinions, thoughts, and feelings about people are superior to their own about themselves.

[kexodusc]

First, let's start with the basics of why a 'review' site exists. First, it exists to inform the consumer. Wait, let's stop there. The purpose of the website that I write for is purely non-advertisement, which means we don't get kick backs for writing reviews, in fact the only payment we receive is free product. We are solely committed to informing the consumer and we try to be as fair as possible with our critiquing.

So, how does that effect sales? It can help or hurt sales for one. Apparently you thought that these two things were night and day. While we don't get money for the sales of certain titles, we are certainly in favor of people buying good product. If you check our reviews and comments for the HD formats you will see that we are trying to keep the consumer as informed as possible. Other sites are not adequently covering the HD formats, therefore there seems to be less consumer knowledge out there about the formats, or the quality of the formats.

When I read a good DVD review on a website I am likely to be inclined to check it out or be curious, same with HD formats, but even more imperative as we are trying to help these formats succeed. Our reviews are free advertising for the product. We endorse the quality ones and we reject the ones that are subpar. If more websites would begin to do HD reviews and help to push the market I think it would clearly make this format war go quicker.

Great, so from this you are implying your little website, which is read by X fraction of a percent of the HD video market somehow influences the format war when combined with the influence of all the other similar review sites...let the quality of the product determine the winner...I can see the logic in that...it's just terribly hard to get that complete message out of:

THE DIGITAL BITS acts like there is hardly any product for either format, and their reviews for the HD formats are few and far between, yet there are hundreds of titles available now. At FULVUEDRIVE-IN.COM we have covered nearly every HD title released to this date!!!

That just seemed like self-promotion vs a competing site without relevance to the thread or any discussion of how reviews could influence a format war. My apologies.

So, why not post some reviews here at this site, and further contribute to the cause of helping consumers sift between the good and subpar HD titles...we promise to pay you the same (less any product). Maybe just simul-post your reviews? Could generate some discussion on HD titles if nothing else...

[Woochifer]

Good one. I should have known that instead of going for a straight-out-snappy-line that you would opt for the "translation" bit, since you obviously know me better than I know myself and are fit for translating what I said. Which is typical since you seem to think that your opinions, thoughts, and feelings about people are superior to their own about themselves.

In other words, I got it right.