Quote Originally Posted by kexodusc
What will be interesting to learn is the effect of 2 sources DVD didn't have to compete against in year 4:

1) DVD! - sure VHS was there - but the reason to upgrade was so compelling on so many levels - I don't get the impression that HD a/v is being perceived to be quite as big a deal as the initial benefits of DVD were over VHS - the ol' revolutionary vs evolutionary card again...

2) VOD/downloading/pirating - I don't see it as a legit threat to over take BluRay for a decade at least, but I could see it introducing some drag into year-over-year growth. Some people have become used to getting what they want for free (or legit pay-for VOD) for almost 10 years now...has to count for something.

That said - the DVD was billed as the most successful CE product ever...There would be absolutely no shame in BluRay finishing somewhere in the top 10 even...
Very valid points, which is why I doubt that Blu-ray will more than triple its disc sales next year. For one thing, consumers simply aren't going to completely upgrade their DVD collections. Some coveted titles here and there, but certainly not every DVD they already own. That trend alone ensures that Blu-ray's uptake will fall short of the DVD format (which indeed was the most rapidly adopted consumer electronics product ever -- faster than the CD, cassette, VCR, Laserdisc, color TV, cable TV, satellite TV, PC, internet access, DVR, HDTV, et al).

But, I think that the format is now positioned for some big growth numbers in the next year. Everything is lining up to make it happen -- the average player prices beginning to dip down to that $150 price point, HDTV household penetration going above 50%, 100% studio support with day and date releases, and disc prices beginning to hit the $20 and below mark.

Aside from the pricing, the studios are also trying different approaches to try and stoke the demand for Blu-ray. Disney has been bundling DVD and Blu-ray discs together. And now, Universal is going to begin selling DVD/Blu-ray combo packs as well. Several studios also include digital copies with the Blu-ray.

You also have some releases including a lot of interactive BD-Live features, though I'm skeptical about how much demand that creates.

There are also potential changes to how the release windows are done. For example, Disney released the Blu-ray for Snow White back in early-October (the set includes a DVD copy of the movie). The two-disc DVD version doesn't come out until next week. You also have the home video releases occurring a much shorter time after the theatrical release. And you also some PPV releases coming out the same time as the theatrical release.

Lots of things are in play right now, and it remains to be seen which combination will yield the highest revenue streams. No matter what though, Blu-ray's a big (and the fastest growing) part of the puzzle. Digital distribution is the future, but it remains a highly balkanized market with no unified standards or universal content providers. Blu-ray has already fought through the growing pains, while downloading/streaming options remain unsettled.