I Predict HD DVD Players Will Be A Failure for the first 3 Years

[SlumpBuster]

Interesting thread. But in reading through, I see alot of confusion and misinformation followed by correction and debate. Despite some of the goofy arguments that erupt on this board, most any of us are vastly more knowledgable regarding AV than your average schlub. So here we are, a group of well informed hobbyists and we can't even get the details and pros/cons straight. Now dump that sort of format war confusion into the $30 Walmart DVD player crowd and ask them to pay $300 to $500 for it? I make no prediction, but I won't be surprised if we see some real beta-max style losers in the next decade. And I say that as a proud MiniDisk owner... Boy I picked the wrong one there What a boob

[westcott]

The reason I am so excited about HD video disk technolgy is because I am tired of the junk Directv puts out and calls it HD. My DVD player looks better than most of the movies presented as HD. Only those programs filmed with real HD cameras like football games and other digital programs do you really get to see what HD can truly be.

Give me a HD disc without all the compression artifacts found on sat\cable and true 720p\1080i video quality! Thats what I want. And I do not want to have to buy the programming. I want to rent it like I currently do with NetFlix or BlockBuster. In that respect, I agree it may be two or three years before we see true HD programming on disc in every segment of the existing market. It is hard to imagine the existing capital investment in recording and editing equipment. To change this all out is a MAJOR hurdle, even when the hardware is technically available.

As far as the demise of SACD and DVD Audio. These technologies never provided a real increase in sound quality because few players provided digital connections, and even fewer have decent bass management. I won't even get into the lack of material or the premium you pay for a perceived better resolution.

[drseid]

TNT is a joke in HD because the older shows looked distorted as they're horribly stretched. I don't get UPN & WB in HD but apparently alot of people on Cable & Satellite don't get those as well. I'd double check with your cable or satellite company as to 5.1 sound, HD & other things, as half the people at these places don't have the right info and are hopelessly unaware. IE, the Scientific Atlanta 8000 DVR doesn not get 5.1 sound and does not let you make external DVD & VHS copies because Time Warner or someone never programmed them to do so but the 8300 model does. Unless you specifically demand the 8300 model they'll dump the 8000 model on you, etc. The point is don't take just one person's statement on services/features as gospal, and that includes mine too, but verify things with serveral people at these companies and/or who get the service.

This may be true in your area, but not in mine. The Scientific Atlanta 8000HD-DVR model absolutely has the capability to send out 5.1 DD signals (and mine does). It also can copy to a DVD-R (and mine also does). I use Cox Communications, BTW.

As for the price issue of HD-DVD and Blu-Ray with respect to your original post... I don't think there is a pricing problem at all... The first HD-DVD player was just announced at CES yesterday at a MSRP of $499. This seems hardly super-expensive for a 1st gen player in my book... Within a year or so, the next gen player could sell for half of that. In the case of Blu-Ray, the format will indeed be in the PS3, and that is indeed supposed to sell for $500 or less, so again, no problem in my book. The larger problem is the two competing formats are incompatible, not their respective prices IMO.

In my case, I plan on getting on the Blu-Ray bandwagon as soon as they come out on the PS3. Pretty good value for $500... I spent more than that on my first gen Toshiba DVD player when they came out (and even my current Denon player 3 years ago).

As for sound, the new DD++ HD lossless sound format for both new HD disc formats is interesting. I am eager to try it out, as my preamp already has the decoding ability for that particular signal on the new discs. I wonder if there will be a good music application for the format as well? Maybe that is why SACD is not on the Blu-Ray specs?

---Dave

[EdwardGein]

[QUOTE=drseid]This may be true in your area, but not in mine. The Scientific Atlanta 8000HD-DVR model absolutely has the capability to send out 5.1 DD signals (and mine does). It also can copy to a DVD-R (and mine also does). I use Cox Communications, BTW.

All I can say is Time Warner apparently did not program the Scientific Atlanta 8000 to do this for God knows what reason which they don't seem to know- I think the customer service people are alumni of Best Buy, lol. Good for you that you didn't have this problem. The most irritating thing about Time Warner in LA is 9 out of 10 customer service people don't know about this stuff when they should. Like finding out about sex in the schoolyard, I find out about Time Warner on this site, from my man in Hawai who is up on things. The good things about Time Warner here are the installation people are very good & if you schedule things with Time Warner my experience is they're very reliable and show up as scheduled. Their prices are reasonable as well.

In regards to $500 HD DVD players, I hope that's true. I still won't get one at that price but it is bizarre that a major newspaper (either LA Times or USA Today, I don't remember which) would state that these players would hit the market at over $1,000 each. I think alot of people based on price drops of things like VCR's, DVD players, Computers, etc., have kind of figured out a pattern now & won't rush into first line high priced products if they're not loaded & its something they can live without- i.e. like DVD-A's & SACD's. If I see an HD DVD and it really does look great, I'll probably get one in the $250 range, no higher.

[shokhead]

Interesting conversation. I somewhat agree with Ed regarding this. The great great majority are very happy with DVDs, so why change to something that is only going to increase the picture and sound. I know, I know- everyone here is going to say, "Those are the main reasons I will buy an HD-DVD player!" The jump from VHS to SD DVD I feel is bigger than the jump from SD DVD to HD DVD. I'm not talking about the pic/sound quality; I'm talking about the disc vs tape format and the convenience of skipping chapters with a click of a button and not needing to rewind/fast forward a darn tape. Also, the durability of a disc vs a tape.

I'm very interested to see how well HD DVDs will be marketed and how the general public responds. Even though SD DVD players dropped in price much much faster than VCRs back in the day, it still took some time for it to be affordable to the general public. And I feel affordable for the general public is less than $250.

The general public can care less just like with DVD-A and SACD. We are the ones supporting this stuff.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

As for sound, the new DD++ HD lossless sound format for both new HD disc formats is interesting. I am eager to try it out, as my preamp already has the decoding ability for that particular signal on the new discs. I wonder if there will be a good music application for the format as well? Maybe that is why SACD is not on the Blu-Ray specs?

I just wanted to note that no processor currently on the market has no provisions for any of the new formats. Currently DD codecs do not have the processing power to handle DD HD or DD+. If an analog output is utilized for its output, then perhaps via your analog inputs you could handle the signal. However no current processor will be able to do it digitally.

As far as the demise of SACD and DVD Audio. These technologies never provided a real increase in sound quality because few players provided digital connections, and even fewer have decent bass management. I won't even get into the lack of material or the premium you pay for a perceived better resolution

Actually if you had a system consisted of 5 full range speakers and a sub, with all speakers set to large, even through the analog inputs you would hear a VERY noticeable quality different when comparing the multichannel SACD to its CD counterpart. Avoiding the conversion of the DSD bitstream to PCM is key to hearing the quality of SACD. If you have placed your speakers equidistance from the listening position, have all speakers to large, sub on, this is the only way that this is possible. When properly setup, and avoiding any uneccesary processing, SACD and DVD-A can sound absolutely glorious.

[drseid]

I just wanted to note that no processor currently on the market has no provisions for any of the new formats. Currently DD codecs do not have the processing power to handle DD HD or DD+. If an analog output is utilized for its output, then perhaps via your analog inputs you could handle the signal. However no current processor will be able to do it digitally.

Actually, that information came directly from Cary over the phone... They said that while they do not publish the specs, their processor (in the Cinema 6) can indeed decode the DD++ signal. As for the new HD-DTS format, that is another story...

---Dave

[edtyct]

I'm more than happy to provide testimony that SACD (and, to a lesser extent, DVD-A) via analog output can be absolutely stunning. Actually, I find it hard to listen to red book CD in the face of it.

[GMichael]

Who's replacing? HD DVD will be backward compatible. Plus everything will likely scale up you DVD 480i signal so they'll look better anyway. Not HD, but still better. Win-win.

Is this true? Count me in then.

[L.J.]

Is this true? Count me in then.

A point brought out earlier, and my plan, is to just buy new released movies in the new format and maybe replace some of your favorites from your collection.

[GMichael]

A point brought out earlier, and my plan, is to just buy new released movies in the new format and maybe replace some of your favorites from your collection.

I will probably wait (with saliva dripping from my canines) to see if it takes hold before I make a purchase. If it does well, the prices will come down.

[L.J.]

I will probably wait (with saliva dripping from my canines) to see if it takes hold before I make a purchase. If it does well, the prices will come down.

We'll be sitting on that fence together, along with quite a few others around here. I do plan on getting a PS3 though.

[westcott]

[QUOTE=Actually if you had a system consisted of 5 full range speakers and a sub, with all speakers set to large, even through the analog inputs you would hear a VERY noticeable quality different when comparing the multichannel SACD to its CD counterpart.

Avoiding the conversion of the DSD bitstream to PCM is key to hearing the quality of SACD. If you have placed your speakers equidistance from the listening position, have all speakers to large, sub on, this is the only way that this is possible. When properly setup, and avoiding any uneccesary processing, SACD and DVD-A can sound absolutely glorious.[/QUOTE]


I would say very few of us have TRUE full range speakers and subwoofer sales are the proof.

"avoiding any unecessary processsing" like not converting it to analog and providing a digital link between the receiver and the player?

Here is a link(s) that I think you will find interesting.

http://www.audioholics.com/techtips/...udioSACD12.php

http://www.audioholics.com/techtips/...AudioSACD2.php

Cheers!

[GMichael]

Disclaimer: no factual knowledge of the future was used in the preparation of that statement.

Ah man, why do you get my hopes up like that?

[noddin0ff]

Is this true? Count me in then.

Disclaimer: no factual knowledge of the future was used in the preparation of that statement.

[edtyct]

Wescott,

At the risk of going hopelessly off topic, in response to your links, Gene is a really smart, well-educated guy, but I still maintain that my SA-CD disks sound worlds better than typical redbook CDs. He obviously makes some important observations, though he admits himself that work-around solutions exist for some of the drawbacks that the recording industry hasn't yet addressed, but I have found that even 16 bit recordings benefit from adaptation to SA-CD, and no amount of skeptical reasoning after the fact changes what I hear. I will easily concede that not everyone will, or should, take the time to discriminate the degree of improvement on the less refined disks. However, I'm willing to bet that anyone with even a modest interest can hear the improvement in the better ones (often of later vintage), whether in two-or multi-channel formats. And certain disks are just plain breathtaking. I don't listen to SA-CDs in PCM form derived from their DVD-A brethren, but I'm not convinced that even though this is certainly not the optimal way to hear them, they might still be a cut above the norm in many cases. It might be worth starting a new thread on the subject.

Ed

[noddin0ff]

Ah man, why do you get my hopes up like that?

GM, Master of Time Warp, what does the future hold?

[GMichael]

GM, Master of Time Warp, what does the future hold?

Taxes & death.

[E-Stat]

When properly setup, and avoiding any uneccesary processing, SACD and DVD-A can sound absolutely glorious.

Agreed. The problem with Redbook is at the top, not the bottom. What does bass management have to do with the recording medium anyway?

rw

[N. Abstentia]

Expected rollout price for PS3 (with Blu-Ray) is $500.


Robert

I don't think a PS3 will be able to play HD-DVD.

[drseid]

I don't think a PS3 will be able to play HD-DVD.

You are correct, it won't. Blu-Ray (from a technical perspective, at least) is the superior format, so I am glad the PS3 uses it as opposed to HD-DVD. That said, it would be nice if someone came out with a reasonably priced 1st gen combo player for about $750 or so to reduce the risk as to which format wins out in the end. My bet is on Blu-Ray, but I remember the Beta vs. VHS days well... I went with Beta (big mistake on my part there)...

---Dave

[edtyct]

Samsung already has a combo player in the works.

[edtyct]

Rewind: I just got to thinking about this DSD (SA-CD) issue relative to PCM. In certain respects, DSD is not wholly incompatible with PCM, as we often portray it. Some people consider DSD to be essentially a PCM process because of the way that it handles pulse codes. However, even though this isn't really the case, since DSD uses a sigma-delta technique to register 1s and 0s, and PCM as we know it does not, DSD at several points along the chain appears to conform to PCM principles. One is in the recording studio, where the stream encounters 8 bit processing (DSD wide) before reverting again to a single bit, and another is in Sony's own consumer units (even the high end ones), in which SACD is converted explicitly to PCM before output--the component that does the job is even labeled PCM under the hood. I am not speaking about universal players, which are often noted to convert SACD to DVD-A-style PCM for bass management to save money, but of Sony's own processors and DVD/CD/SACD players, which don't have DVD-A capability at all.

Sorry to inflict this thread with more off topic, but we did touch on it above. I would have put it elsewhere if another likely thread existed. The point is that the worlds of SACD and PCM are not so distinct that any contact between them is an obvious infection. Maybe Sir TT will have more to say about the matter. Mods, please feel free to move.

Ed

[swgiust]

HD is like sex, untill you've done it (or seen it) nobody can explain it. There are over
10 MILLION HD tv's in america right now. Only about 25% of them actually get HD.
Once people see what an HD/Blue ray DVD looks like... Those players will fly off
the shelves. $ 500 - $ 1000 for a player (at first) who cares, it's going to be sitting
next to a $ 3500 TV.

I have my little side fund started and I am going to buy a Blue ray player as soon
as I can.

We've got to remember that Hollywood made more money off of DVD's in the last
3 or 4 years then the did off the original movies. Once these new disc hit the shelves
at Blockbuster and Bestbuy, the original DVD is DEAD.

[shokhead]

Your fooling yourself.