I Predict HD DVD Players Will Be A Failure for the first 3 Years

[EdwardGein]

I just read that they expect the initial HD DVD players to be above $1,000. I got to laugh at this. There is no way most middle income people or below are going to spend that kind of money on a DVD player when they can get a decent one for $50 or so that shows perfectly good pictures. I really think it is going to be a commercial disaster and until they price them below $200 which given the way electronic devices get better and progressively cheaper year in and year out, I think will be at least 4 years away. I know I initially spend about $1,000 around 1977 for one of the first VCR's but at the time it was an innovation that changed lifestyles. I also spent $650 for a HiFi VCR that one could get for $50 now. I just can't seeing laying out anything over $250 for a DVD player that plays HD given the excellent quality results of normal DVD players today.

[robert393]

I just read that they expect the initial HD DVD players to be above $1,000.

Expected rollout price for PS3 (with Blu-Ray) is $500.

There is no way most middle income people or below are going to spend that kind of money on a DVD player when they can get a decent one for $50 or so that shows perfectly good pictures.

They can't get an HD DVD player for $50, so you are not comparing apples-to-apples.

I initially spend about $1,000 around 1977 for one of the first VCR's

Convert that $1000 (from '77) into today's dollars and it would be a meer maybe $300. So, getting a PS3 (with Blu-Ray) for $500 doesn't sound like that much.

I just can't seeing laying out anything over $250 for a DVD player that plays HD given the excellent quality results of normal DVD players today.

HD DVD has more than 2-times the resolution of DVD. A quote from this article does a good job of explaining the difference: "The best analogy is the the comparision of 480p to HDTV to the comparison of the inferior video quality VHS to that of DVD. Or, putting it another way, VHS has half the resolution of DVD and DVD is half the resolution of HDTV."

I'm not doubting that the commercial success of HD DVD will be a bit slow in coming, but remembering that that we only have 3-yrs until the Federal mandate requiring HDTV, HD DVD will no doubt become the standard. Of course I would not be surprised to see VOD-HD getting it's share of the HD-DVD market by then too?

480i (and p) is old technology. If you think it looks great, wait 'till you see HD in all it's glory. It makes 480i (or p) look pretty disgusting.

Robert

[EdwardGein]

If your right about the $500 price, I totally rescind what I said. However, according to USA Today or was it the LA Times, I think in an article today, they stated categorically that the lowest HD DVD player would be above $1,000 and obviously didn't mention your $500 price.
If the article was in the LA Times (I don't remember which, sorry), then I'd give it less credibility. This is the same newspaper, I kid you not, that last Friday, had a big story on the front page of the newspaper, about some Los Angeles guy who they thought might have broken a record for going to movies in a year- aproximately 175 or so, big F ing deal, I find it hard to think that someone who goes to an average of 3 movies a week for a year is setting a record!

[N. Abstentia]

Expected rollout price for PS3 (with Blu-Ray) is $500.


Robert

I don't think a PS3 will be able to play HD-DVD.

[drseid]

I don't think a PS3 will be able to play HD-DVD.

You are correct, it won't. Blu-Ray (from a technical perspective, at least) is the superior format, so I am glad the PS3 uses it as opposed to HD-DVD. That said, it would be nice if someone came out with a reasonably priced 1st gen combo player for about $750 or so to reduce the risk as to which format wins out in the end. My bet is on Blu-Ray, but I remember the Beta vs. VHS days well... I went with Beta (big mistake on my part there)...

---Dave

[edtyct]

Samsung already has a combo player in the works.

[edtyct]

Rewind: I just got to thinking about this DSD (SA-CD) issue relative to PCM. In certain respects, DSD is not wholly incompatible with PCM, as we often portray it. Some people consider DSD to be essentially a PCM process because of the way that it handles pulse codes. However, even though this isn't really the case, since DSD uses a sigma-delta technique to register 1s and 0s, and PCM as we know it does not, DSD at several points along the chain appears to conform to PCM principles. One is in the recording studio, where the stream encounters 8 bit processing (DSD wide) before reverting again to a single bit, and another is in Sony's own consumer units (even the high end ones), in which SACD is converted explicitly to PCM before output--the component that does the job is even labeled PCM under the hood. I am not speaking about universal players, which are often noted to convert SACD to DVD-A-style PCM for bass management to save money, but of Sony's own processors and DVD/CD/SACD players, which don't have DVD-A capability at all.

Sorry to inflict this thread with more off topic, but we did touch on it above. I would have put it elsewhere if another likely thread existed. The point is that the worlds of SACD and PCM are not so distinct that any contact between them is an obvious infection. Maybe Sir TT will have more to say about the matter. Mods, please feel free to move.

Ed

[HT BUFF]

Quick question here, after people spending thousands $ on building a massive DVD collection over the past 5 years do these manufacturers honestly believe we are all going to run out and replace
this collection? I can't see it happening. This is why the SACD format failed.

[robert393]

Quick question here, after people spending thousands $ on building a massive DVD collection over the past 5 years do these manufacturers honestly believe we are all going to run out and replace
this collection?

Not many are going to replace it all at one time. I'm sure not. But will I (and many others) start buying the new format with new movies and eventually replace some of our favorite movies with the new format? Sure! Did you (an deverybody else) replace your VCR collection and upgrade to DVD over time?

This is why the SACD format failed.

SACD failed? Wow! Now that's news. Better tell the recording industry, because they are kicking-out more titles everday, and the consumers are enjoying the uncompressed sound.

Robert

[EdwardGein]

In regards to what happened to people with VHS Collections, for me personally, I converted my VHS Tapes to DVD+R discs via a DVD Recorder at a pretty inexpensive amount.

In fairness to this argument, I spent way over $10,000 over time, replacing my then vinyl collection with new CD's.

[EdwardGein]

I may be misinterpreting something here but HDTV has nothing to do with 5.1 sound. As long as your getting digital TV as opposed to HDTV from you cable or Satellite company and have an optical cable & a receiver, you can get 5.1 sound.

[noddin0ff]

Who's replacing? HD DVD will be backward compatible. Plus everything will likely scale up you DVD 480i signal so they'll look better anyway. Not HD, but still better. Win-win.

[Eric Z]

Interesting conversation. I somewhat agree with Ed regarding this. The great great majority are very happy with DVDs, so why change to something that is only going to increase the picture and sound. I know, I know- everyone here is going to say, "Those are the main reasons I will buy an HD-DVD player!" The jump from VHS to SD DVD I feel is bigger than the jump from SD DVD to HD DVD. I'm not talking about the pic/sound quality; I'm talking about the disc vs tape format and the convenience of skipping chapters with a click of a button and not needing to rewind/fast forward a darn tape. Also, the durability of a disc vs a tape.

I'm very interested to see how well HD DVDs will be marketed and how the general public responds. Even though SD DVD players dropped in price much much faster than VCRs back in the day, it still took some time for it to be affordable to the general public. And I feel affordable for the general public is less than $250.

[recoveryone]

whats all this sound upgrade stuff, the PQ will increse but I haven't heard anything above DTS/DD yet so what is this higher level sound format you guys are refering too.

[Eric Z]

good point, recoveryone- that's my fault. i was actually thinking about the sound quality of HDTV vs just watching the TV- like how you can get 5.1 with HD watching football, but with my SDTV, it's just basic sound for me. you're right, same sound as my current DVDs now.

I wonder what's next after DD/DTS- something else that would cause us to spend more,

[edtyct]

Both Dolby and DTS have hi res, nonlossy formats waiting in the wings for hi def video disks to arrive. I won't rehash them. They provide yet another opportunity for those who are happy with the current versions to stand their ground. I hate to say it, but history is littered with people who have thought, for better or worse, that a particular instantiation of "progress" was a waste of their time and/or money. For better or worse, they have the footprints on their backs to show just how deterred progress was by their staunch resistance. Regardless of how long any of us may hold out, change will come. Early adopters always seem to crawl out of the wordwork, regardless of how strong the opposition is, and manufacturers count on them. They know, as well as we do, that not everyone has the same attitude toward innovation. Personally, if most of my current music collection were available in SA-CD, I'd jump at the chance to replace it--even if resources forced me to pace myself. I'd be more selective about films, but certain ones positively scream to me for higher resolution. I enjoy the rush of seeing and hearing my favorite things (pun with Coltrane happily acknowledged) presented in better form.

Ed

[shokhead]

Interesting conversation. I somewhat agree with Ed regarding this. The great great majority are very happy with DVDs, so why change to something that is only going to increase the picture and sound. I know, I know- everyone here is going to say, "Those are the main reasons I will buy an HD-DVD player!" The jump from VHS to SD DVD I feel is bigger than the jump from SD DVD to HD DVD. I'm not talking about the pic/sound quality; I'm talking about the disc vs tape format and the convenience of skipping chapters with a click of a button and not needing to rewind/fast forward a darn tape. Also, the durability of a disc vs a tape.

I'm very interested to see how well HD DVDs will be marketed and how the general public responds. Even though SD DVD players dropped in price much much faster than VCRs back in the day, it still took some time for it to be affordable to the general public. And I feel affordable for the general public is less than $250.

The general public can care less just like with DVD-A and SACD. We are the ones supporting this stuff.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

As for sound, the new DD++ HD lossless sound format for both new HD disc formats is interesting. I am eager to try it out, as my preamp already has the decoding ability for that particular signal on the new discs. I wonder if there will be a good music application for the format as well? Maybe that is why SACD is not on the Blu-Ray specs?

I just wanted to note that no processor currently on the market has no provisions for any of the new formats. Currently DD codecs do not have the processing power to handle DD HD or DD+. If an analog output is utilized for its output, then perhaps via your analog inputs you could handle the signal. However no current processor will be able to do it digitally.

As far as the demise of SACD and DVD Audio. These technologies never provided a real increase in sound quality because few players provided digital connections, and even fewer have decent bass management. I won't even get into the lack of material or the premium you pay for a perceived better resolution

Actually if you had a system consisted of 5 full range speakers and a sub, with all speakers set to large, even through the analog inputs you would hear a VERY noticeable quality different when comparing the multichannel SACD to its CD counterpart. Avoiding the conversion of the DSD bitstream to PCM is key to hearing the quality of SACD. If you have placed your speakers equidistance from the listening position, have all speakers to large, sub on, this is the only way that this is possible. When properly setup, and avoiding any uneccesary processing, SACD and DVD-A can sound absolutely glorious.

[GMichael]

Who's replacing? HD DVD will be backward compatible. Plus everything will likely scale up you DVD 480i signal so they'll look better anyway. Not HD, but still better. Win-win.

Is this true? Count me in then.

[L.J.]

Is this true? Count me in then.

A point brought out earlier, and my plan, is to just buy new released movies in the new format and maybe replace some of your favorites from your collection.

[GMichael]

A point brought out earlier, and my plan, is to just buy new released movies in the new format and maybe replace some of your favorites from your collection.

I will probably wait (with saliva dripping from my canines) to see if it takes hold before I make a purchase. If it does well, the prices will come down.

[noddin0ff]

Is this true? Count me in then.

Disclaimer: no factual knowledge of the future was used in the preparation of that statement.

[GMichael]

Disclaimer: no factual knowledge of the future was used in the preparation of that statement.

Ah man, why do you get my hopes up like that?

[edtyct]

Wescott,

At the risk of going hopelessly off topic, in response to your links, Gene is a really smart, well-educated guy, but I still maintain that my SA-CD disks sound worlds better than typical redbook CDs. He obviously makes some important observations, though he admits himself that work-around solutions exist for some of the drawbacks that the recording industry hasn't yet addressed, but I have found that even 16 bit recordings benefit from adaptation to SA-CD, and no amount of skeptical reasoning after the fact changes what I hear. I will easily concede that not everyone will, or should, take the time to discriminate the degree of improvement on the less refined disks. However, I'm willing to bet that anyone with even a modest interest can hear the improvement in the better ones (often of later vintage), whether in two-or multi-channel formats. And certain disks are just plain breathtaking. I don't listen to SA-CDs in PCM form derived from their DVD-A brethren, but I'm not convinced that even though this is certainly not the optimal way to hear them, they might still be a cut above the norm in many cases. It might be worth starting a new thread on the subject.

Ed