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  1. #1
    guitar mongoose icarus's Avatar
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    Blu-Ray.....Bashing?

    There has been a fair amount of talk about the blu-ray player, almost all of it trashing it, whether its groundbeef ripping into the PS3(not just because of blu-ray but I do recall that was mentioned in one of his posts ripping the PS3 apart) or because it's one Sony's introduction and their track record is less than impressive, or the price of it. Everyone has an opinion on it and basically an opinion on why it is going to fail.
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    And yes I do realise that there was a post on "hd-dvd vs Blu-ray", it was about a month ago, so i don't need to be reminded of it

    So I started a new thread to get some updated opinions, new information, and some built up frustration out . So lets start putting some peices together on why it might fail.
    that makes as much sense as a drunken mongoose playing the piano

  2. #2
    Tyler Acoustics Fan drseid's Avatar
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    I own both formats, and I still believe Blu-ray is a step or two behind HD DVD. BR50 discs are scarce, and players (except the PS3) are still rather pricey. Both HD DVD and Blu-ray players have a ton of glitches that still need to be worked out, but BR has more from my experience (although admittedly the stand alone players boot up quicker). I would say the main thing BR has going for it is studio support. I was hoping to see some new studios come aboard the HD DVD band wagon at CES this year, but it did not happen. If this continues another year with no one else jumping to HD DVD, that would be very bad news for the format indeed. I guess we will see, but personally I think both formats will survive in the end... BR has too many studios banking on it to see it die easily, and HD DVD is too good quality-wise to lose the video-phile support it has garnered over the past year.

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  3. #3
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    I don't think it will fail,i have seen the Sony player in operation and it looked spectacular.They have the studio support and they appear to be ahead on the computer side with drives already available.

    bill

  4. #4
    Loving This kexodusc's Avatar
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    I've liked both formats from what I've seen so far - though I don't think either are have reached their potential because they really didnt' look much better than my cable HD feeds. I can only assume it's like some of the early DVD's - not the best use of the technology. Don't know whether it was disc or players or both.

    If BluRay fails, I think we can chalk it up to the fact Sony may have largely overestimated the value of additional storage on the BluRay disc. It's not "enough" of an advantage over HD-DVD - especially since a 2nd disc can be added to a package for a dollar or so, and there's concrete evidence from DVD's that consumers will pay the extra price for a 2 disc edition of a movie. This, combined with the pricing advantage HD-DVD enjoys for pretty much a comparable product puts BluRay in 2nd place. Perhaps these BluRay bashers are more like myself - not opposed to BluRay, but just eager to support the cheapest format that does the job - which so far is HD-DVD.

    I don't think either format is earning an early, insurmountable lead though at this stage.

    HD-DVD's lack of studio support is really a non-issue, since most studios are hedging their bets and releasing titles in both formats. Alliances in that industry are pretty much renegotiated daily.

    One thing you can say for Sony - they'll see things through until the bitter end. Once PS3 gets rolling and more discs go into production, I wouldn't be surprised to see a price reduction. Truth is they'd have more room to move than HD-DVD would. Either that or profit margins increase. In a prolonged format war, Sony's got enough clout and nerve (and history) to stick it out. I don't think Toshiba has the appetite for it if they're not making much money from it- they stand far more to gain financially off the sales of the electronics than the royalties from the format license. If they think their bottom line is hurting even a bit from a format war, even if they're winning it, Toshiba is more likely to start producing BluRay players. They don't fall in love with their bets the way Sony does.

    Considering the number of HD sets out there, and the perceived need of the public right now, I have to wonder if both of these formats won't just exist as a niche product until we transition to something even better. I'm probably well above the average consumer when it comes to buying HT products and general enthusiasm for the stuff. But even I just don't see enough value in spending the cash at this point to jump on the HD player bandwagon. I suspect an XBOX 360 will be my first HD player.

  5. #5
    AR Regular evil__betty's Avatar
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    Forget about BD and HDDVD, its all about HDD

    Quote Originally Posted by kexodusc
    Considering the number of HD sets out there, and the perceived need of the public right now, I have to wonder if both of these formats won't just exist as a niche product until we transition to something even better.
    It will still be a litle ways off, but HDD video on demand is working hard in the background and will overtake and physical media that we currently use. For example, Hitachi is shipping a 1 terabyte hard drive for only $399 this quarter. Imagine the price drop this will have in a year or two from now. It isn't that far off that more and more "regular Joe's" will be able to have a dedicated media server in their house that is connected to the internet so they can simply pay for and store HD (or SD) content like movies on their hard drives. This is obviously down the road, but so is the death of either current format. By the time that one of the formats becomes the norm*, it will be replaced by bigger and bigger hard drives.


    *I believe that this "Beta vs. VHS" comparason will turn into the DVD-R/RW vs. DVD+R/RW war: we'll live with both, and have some players that play both, but "DVD-R/RW" will be the norm that most people use regardless of the perks of "DVD+R/RW"

  6. #6
    Tyler Acoustics Fan drseid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by evil__betty
    It will still be a litle ways off, but HDD video on demand is working hard in the background and will overtake and physical media that we currently use. For example, Hitachi is shipping a 1 terabyte hard drive for only $399 this quarter. Imagine the price drop this will have in a year or two from now. It isn't that far off that more and more "regular Joe's" will be able to have a dedicated media server in their house that is connected to the internet so they can simply pay for and store HD (or SD) content like movies on their hard drives. This is obviously down the road, but so is the death of either current format. By the time that one of the formats becomes the norm*, it will be replaced by bigger and bigger hard drives.


    *I believe that this "Beta vs. VHS" comparason will turn into the DVD-R/RW vs. DVD+R/RW war: we'll live with both, and have some players that play both, but "DVD-R/RW" will be the norm that most people use regardless of the perks of "DVD+R/RW"
    I don't know if the end is as near as you may think. I am only one consumer, but I would hate downloading long movies via the Internet, and I also like to have something more tactile than a movie stored on a hard drive for my money. I prefer having a disc in a box. That said, I could be in the minority, but I guess time will tell.

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    I fully agree with e_b. With increasing bandwidth capabilities and competitive internet costs, I think the need for portable media will soon come to an end. Hard drive players seem to make more sense. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like iTunes but for movies emerge in the coming years. They would obviously have to deal with pirating issues (like they aren't already) and implament something like DRM, but I think it's innevitable. Just the other day my buddy showed me his XBox which has over 160 full-length feature films with 5.1 playback a hard drive. He doesn't use a DVD player anymore.

    On the other hand, taking a movie to a friends house could become an issue, and the 30+GB of data on current High-Def formats is alot to store, so I can see other points of view. In the end I still think HDD's will take over though.

  8. #8
    Loving This kexodusc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Palmz
    I fully agree with e_b. With increasing bandwidth capabilities and competitive internet costs, I think the need for portable media will soon come to an end. Hard drive players seem to make more sense. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like iTunes but for movies emerge in the coming years. They would obviously have to deal with pirating issues (like they aren't already) and implament something like DRM, but I think it's innevitable. Just the other day my buddy showed me his XBox which has over 160 full-length feature films with 5.1 playback a hard drive. He doesn't use a DVD player anymore.

    On the other hand, taking a movie to a friends house could become an issue, and the 30+GB of data on current High-Def formats is alot to store, so I can see other points of view. In the end I still think HDD's will take over though.
    Think I mentioned this all in another thread, but I'll bring it up again.
    I think a strictly digital, non-physical format is the future. I just thing we're at least 7-10 years from that. I wouldn't be shocked if it was much longer though. For a few reasons.

    First, people like paying to touch something - the DVD or HD-DVD is tangible, and provides a bit of value-added that a downloaded movie can never provide. It also gives you some assurance of quality. And it's easier. People like that.

    Second, a lot of big,big companies have big, big bucks invested in production facilities - including the studios that control the distirbution of these films. They're not going to cut off their own arm for quite some time, I'm afraid.

    Third - digital rights management is so screwed up that studios are likely to avoid as long as possible to keep movies in HD-DVD quality off the internet. When they do start giving them away, I doubt the price will be much lower than now, except you won't get the DVD, case, cover art, etc. I've paid money for MP3's that are of lesser quality than CD, but cost more than they would had I bought the album.

    As a precedent, downloading has changed the music industry, but aside from the loss a few percent of sales each year for the last 7 years or so (with the exception of 2 years where sales increased despite a downloading/piracy boom), has not even come close to becoming something resembling a threat to replacing demand for tangible formats.

    I think the HDD/downloading movie thing will be something like internet shopping I guess. I think it will exist successfully along side HD-DVD, BluRay or whatever for quite a long while before replacing it. Someday, though.

  9. #9
    Forum Regular N. Abstentia's Avatar
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    Well the storage thing is a moot point, as HD-DVD is now at 51 gigs.

    Picture quality is a moot point, as both HD-DVD and Blur-Ray both look great, but HD-DVD does have a slight edge it seems.

    The main reasons why Blu-Ray will fail are simple...first off it's Sony. Sony has become the new Microsoft....everybody hates Sony now because of their lies, rootkits, blunders, and just overall cluelessness. Oddly enough Microsoft now has some major respect thanks to the Xbox360, now everybody hates Sony and the RIAA

    Reason #2 for for Blur-Ray failure...Playstation3 failure. It's not helping to have what is being called "the most disastrous failure in electronics history" as the main selling point of your product.

    But in all honestly I think both HD-DVD and Blur-Ray look great, there's just nothing on them I want to watch. The Xbox HD-DVD player is $189 but I can't even justify that at this point. There's just nothing on either format I want to watch at this point that I can't already get for free on DVD.

  10. #10
    SuperPoser Rock789's Avatar
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    if your hard drive fails with 300+ movies on it...
    how does one replace this...
    if you scratch a dvd, thats 1 movie you lost, not 300+...

    raid, or ghosting is a solution with today's public technology...

    here is another possible solution for the future of movies... flash rom...
    (similar to usb drives, only read only)...
    this imo would be a better solution than a hard drive...
    just my 2 cents
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  11. #11
    Forum Regular edtyct's Avatar
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    Don't discount the collector mentality--the desire for something tangible to represent interest and effort. I suppose that time and technology can conspire to erode this value; social behaviors come and go. But collecting has been a going concern from the beginning of history. I can't imagine it disappearing anytime soon. And there's also something to be said for cover art, product design, and easy access to basic information.

  12. #12
    guitar mongoose icarus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by N. Abstentia
    The main reasons why Blu-Ray will fail are simple...first off it's Sony. Sony has become the new Microsoft....everybody hates Sony now because of their lies, rootkits, blunders, and just overall cluelessness. Oddly enough Microsoft now has some major respect thanks to the Xbox360, now everybody hates Sony and the RIAA
    that is a very good comparison their... but like microsoft people hate sony, but they still buy them in record numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by N. Abstentia
    Reason #2 for for Blur-Ray failure...Playstation3 failure. It's not helping to have what is being called "the most disastrous failure in electronics history" as the main selling point of your product.
    It was a huge risk that sony took putting blu-ray in their PS3, and so far it has proven to have been a bad idea. But as it stands right now it does appear that way between HD and blu is a pretty evenly matched one. and if blu does come out on top, that just might save the PS3.
    that makes as much sense as a drunken mongoose playing the piano

  13. #13
    AR Regular evil__betty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drseid
    I don't know if the end is as near as you may think. I am only one consumer, but I would hate downloading long movies via the Internet, and I also like to have something more tactile than a movie stored on a hard drive for my money. I prefer having a disc in a box. That said, I could be in the minority, but I guess time will tell.

    ---Dave
    I don't really think that this will happen instantaneously, but think back 5 years..... "I can hold how many songs in something as small as my palm? Yeah Right!" The ipod changed everything when it comes to storing media on an HDD. It will for sure take a while, and there will always be the people that don't understand why you might want to change (I still get people lecturing me on how the VHS is still the format that they will ever use and they don't understand why someone might want to change to DVD), but the change will come. And as with any change that happens, it will have its own unique growing pains. Only time will tell.

  14. #14
    AR Regular evil__betty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by N. Abstentia
    Well the storage thing is a moot point, as HD-DVD is now at 51 gigs.

    Picture quality is a moot point, as both HD-DVD and Blur-Ray both look great, but HD-DVD does have a slight edge it seems.

    The main reasons why Blu-Ray will fail are simple...first off it's Sony. Sony has become the new Microsoft....everybody hates Sony now because of their lies, rootkits, blunders, and just overall cluelessness. Oddly enough Microsoft now has some major respect thanks to the Xbox360, now everybody hates Sony and the RIAA

    Reason #2 for for Blur-Ray failure...Playstation3 failure. It's not helping to have what is being called "the most disastrous failure in electronics history" as the main selling point of your product.

    But in all honestly I think both HD-DVD and Blur-Ray look great, there's just nothing on them I want to watch. The Xbox HD-DVD player is $189 but I can't even justify that at this point. There's just nothing on either format I want to watch at this point that I can't already get for free on DVD.
    I'm not the biggest Sony fan (never really did like the PS2 either), but I'm not going to jump to judgment of the PS3, HDDVD, or Blu-Ray until we give them a little time to mature. I don't recall any game system, operating system, new electronics hardware of any kind that hasn't had initial hiccups and bugs at launch time. Remember a year ago when Xbox60 came out and all the blue screen of deaths that happened? People were quick to write it off, but it has had some time to mature and has proven itself a kick ass machine that many people love. Give it some time, and let the technology mature, and I am sure that the PS3, Blu-Ray will earn some respect from the A/V and gaming world. and if it doesn't, then we can all take part in a PS3/Blu-Ray burning ceremony.

  15. #15
    Class of the clown GMichael's Avatar
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    I saw a Blueray DVD hooked up to a 70" 1080p Samsung at CC a few months ago. I thought it looked fantastic. Not only did it look crisp with slow moving pictures like Discovery, but also just as crisp with action flicks.

    The future is looking bright.
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  16. #16
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    If you're reading this thread, then you are probably a nerd. Or at least a geek. It's okay, I'm a geek too. I've always maintained that the problem with BR/HD-DVD is not what we think about it, but what the soccer moms and grandmas think about it. Where the Wal-Mart masses go, so shall the technology. To that end, I'm not even sure about the HD, let alone BR or HD-DVD.

    And, I'm not alone. CBS News has been waging what looks like an all out technophobe war against HD. The day after Christmas, CBS Evening News reported that over half of all HDtvs sold in the U.S. end up in homes without HD content running through them. IOW, over half of HD sets in the US are only procesing SD signals. Just last night, 60 Minutes did a piece on the Geek Squad and techno-feature-overkill. They had an MIT prof saying "I couldn't even figure my HDTV out, and I helped write the HD standards."

    Also, by my figuring your looking at $2500 for the TV, $500 for the warranty, $300-$500 for furniture/wall mount, $500 for inhome set up (after all you just got scared by the 60 Minutes report), $750 (average) for HD-DVD or BR, $125/mo for cable bundle, $20/mo NetFlix and $1000 for HTiB. So, fixed cost of amost $6,000.00 just to watch TV. I don't buy it, not when the US median household income is $46,000 and hasn't outpaced inflation in real dollars in 6 years.

    Sure, we care and are willing to spend the money, but we are rich nerds. We are nerds by definition of reading this thread. and we are rich according to our own poll results. http://www.audioreview.com/qikResults_1431crx.aspx According to that poll, only 16% of respondents make less than the median.

    But, people will say "Slump, look at the numbers, Flat Panel sets outpaced CRT sets last year." My response to that is that it is not very surprising that big TV screens are popular. The size of HD sets is distorting the popularity of HD content. Are people buying them because they are big? or because they are HD? If CBS news is to be believed (Not always a good bet) then big and fancy plays just a big of roll. The popularity of HD cannot be tied to the popularity of HD sets.

    Sure HD is here to stay. But I just don't know if it will be all pervasive and as egalitarian as some may hope. The change from VHS to DVD was a no brainer. On a SDtv the difference was phenominal. But with HD, I need a whole new set up. And even then the improvment may just not be enough for most people.

    Just my two cents. thanks.
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  17. #17
    Forum Regular edtyct's Avatar
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    Nonenthusiasts start to want something when they are exposed to it in a good way and/or when it's all but inevitable. In the former case, genuine HD hasn't been available for casual perusal for all that long and often when it has been, the viewing environment has been poor or remote. A good number of people with those big HD sets think that they're getting HD regardless of what they watch, and they're digging it. Wait until they see the real thing. As long as people have a "choice"--in other words, as long as HD isn't automatic--the nonenthusiast will often take the path of least resistance. But on the grounds of desirability alone, the status quo can change, even while the cutting edge keeps receding. The government wants the analog bands; HD is inevitable. Even so, when exposure becomes unavoidable, people will develop a taste for it. Besides, why should the nonenthusiast care? It's up to those who do care to show the rest of the world that they're missing something. In this case, they really are.

  18. #18
    Forum Regular hermanv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by evil__betty
    It will still be a litle ways off, but HDD video on demand is working hard in the background and will overtake and physical media that we currently use. For example, Hitachi is shipping a 1 terabyte hard drive for only $399 this quarter. Imagine the price drop this will have in a year or two from now. It isn't that far off that more and more "regular Joe's" will be able to have a dedicated media server in their house that is connected to the internet so they can simply pay for and store HD (or SD) content like movies on their hard drives. This is obviously down the road, but so is the death of either current format. By the time that one of the formats becomes the norm*, it will be replaced by bigger and bigger hard drives.


    *I believe that this "Beta vs. VHS" comparason will turn into the DVD-R/RW vs. DVD+R/RW war: we'll live with both, and have some players that play both, but "DVD-R/RW" will be the norm that most people use regardless of the perks of "DVD+R/RW"
    I have problems wih this idea.
    1. It requires you to plan ahead about what you want to watch, most people still channel hop, stopping on something they like.
    2. Download bandwidth is not likely to improve to more than double todays rate. Unless fiber to the home becomes standard which involves an enormous infrastructure investment in a country that can't afford to maintain todays road system.. Also the internet backbone would need a lot of enhancement if the majority of TV was being downloaded either live or ahead of viewing prefference.
    3. I own about 110 DVDs, the same number of HDD movies on a hard disk would need roughly 4.4 Terabytes (is that the term? 4,400 billion bytes) of storage.

    I've just converted to a music server for my CDs, it works fine, but I hadn't realized how many CDs I recognized based soley on cover art. Now I have to learn song and album titles. And then there's the cover notes, they could encode all this on the disk or file but they don't seem to. Just as true, if not more so for movies.
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  19. #19
    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kexodusc
    HD-DVD's lack of studio support is really a non-issue, since most studios are hedging their bets and releasing titles in both formats. Alliances in that industry are pretty much renegotiated daily.

    One thing you can say for Sony - they'll see things through until the bitter end. Once PS3 gets rolling and more discs go into production, I wouldn't be surprised to see a price reduction. Truth is they'd have more room to move than HD-DVD would. Either that or profit margins increase. In a prolonged format war, Sony's got enough clout and nerve (and history) to stick it out. I don't think Toshiba has the appetite for it if they're not making much money from it- they stand far more to gain financially off the sales of the electronics than the royalties from the format license. If they think their bottom line is hurting even a bit from a format war, even if they're winning it, Toshiba is more likely to start producing BluRay players. They don't fall in love with their bets the way Sony does.
    I actually think the studio support AND hardware support definitely work in Blu-ray's favor for the moment (thought I recently read that HP is going to start supporting HD-DVD in addition to its existing support of Blu-ray). Even though some studios are releasing titles in both HD-DVD and Blu-ray, you got Fox, Sony, and Disney committed exclusively to Blu-ray and last year those studios accounted for about half of the total box office take. On the HD-DVD side, Universal remains the only studio committed to that format exclusively (presumably because Microsoft is a major shareholder).

    In the end, you're totally right about Toshiba, but for other reasons. IMO, Toshiba does not have to stick it out to the bitter end with HD-DVD because they've already gotten what they wanted -- a channel by which to extend their DVD patents into new hardware and ensure a steady flow of licensing revenues for the foreseeable future. They've already muddied the waters enough to ensure that Blu-ray would not achieve the knockout punch out of the box that many had predicted, and create market demand for dual format players and/or discs.

    I think Sony's playing for keeps with Blu-ray because they got left out in the cold when their joint DVD proposal with Philips got rejected in favor of the Toshiba/Warner proposal that eventually became the official DVD format. Sony wants a new licensing cash cow to replace the CD format, where their patents have expired, and will pull out all the stops to make sure that Blu-ray comes out ahead in the end. In contrast, Toshiba and Warner already hold the patents on the DVD format, and HD-DVD is an extension of that. Warner's recently introduced TotalHD dual format disc is another way to keep their hands in the licensing till, even if Blu-ray winds up winning the format war.

    Quote Originally Posted by N. Abstentia
    Well the storage thing is a moot point, as HD-DVD is now at 51 gigs.
    Problem though is that the proposed 17 GB layering required to arrive at 51 GB presents potential backwards compatibility issues with existing players and drives. (supposedly, it's not as simple as a firmware upgrade)

    Meanwhile, 200 GB Blu-ray discs were recently demoed at CES, so I would not put the storage capacity issue into the moot category just yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by N. Absentia
    Reason #2 for for Blur-Ray failure...Playstation3 failure. It's not helping to have what is being called "the most disastrous failure in electronics history" as the main selling point of your product.
    Huh? For a product that was only introduced two months ago, that's quite a bold statement to make. Usually, the epitaphs on product formats don't get written until they've at least had a product cycle in the market. The PS3 is barely past the launch stage at the moment.

    Plus, the success or failure of Blu-ray is not intrinsically tied to the fate of the PS3. Even if the PS3 falls off the face of the earth, Blu-ray drives and disc players will continue to get introduced. And you cannot underestimate the impact that Blu-ray's wider studio and hardware support has.

    Quote Originally Posted by N. Absentia
    But in all honestly I think both HD-DVD and Blur-Ray look great, there's just nothing on them I want to watch. The Xbox HD-DVD player is $189 but I can't even justify that at this point. There's just nothing on either format I want to watch at this point that I can't already get for free on DVD.
    But, keep in mind that both formats have barely nudged into the market. Most of the major studios have yet to launch their most prized library titles in either format. You're right that probably the majority of consumers will deem the DVD as good enough for their everyday viewing in the meantime, but with more and more HDTVs coming into the market, the demand for HD content will be there. The only question is whether HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will gain enough traction in the market before on-demand HD and downloading services begin to really compete with them for customers.

    One year after launch, the DVD format didn't have too many titles on the market either, and some studios (Disney and Paramount in particular) hadn't decided whether they would even support the DVD in the first place.
    Last edited by Woochifer; 01-29-2007 at 05:40 PM.
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  20. #20
    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    Another interesting item from The Digital Bits. One of the sessions at CES hosted by the Blu-Ray Association basically declared victory for their format. I think it's quite early to be doing end zone dances and that session was hardly a model for objectivity, but one stat really stood out when I was reading this blurb.

    Of the Top 20 DVDs from 2006, 4 of them are getting released on HD-DVD with only 1 exclusive (King Kong). In contrast, 19 out of the top 20 are due to come out on Blu-ray, with 16 of them exclusive to the format. From what I've been reading, sales of Blu-ray discs have already passed HD-DVD and the release slate for 2007 is already stacking heavily in Blu-ray's favor.

    If the titles ultimately determine the victor in this format war, I don't see how HD-DVD can possibly come out on top. As I stated in my previous post, the best they can do is create enough uncertainty in the market to force the market to adopt some sort of dual-format compromise (with Warner's Total HD disc the most likely beneficiary).

    In addition, Toshiba sold a total of 175,000 HD-DVD players between April 2006 and early-January 2007. Yet, despite all of the bad publicity and production/distribution problems, shipments from the PS3 alone have already topped 2 million worldwide and Sony (if we are to believe their most current claims) is holding to their target of 6 million shipped by the end of March.

    Okay… now on to the news from Monday afternoon, the highlight of which was the Blu-ray Disc Association press conference. Pioneer's Andy Parsons moderated the panel, which featured the home video presidents of Fox, Lionsgate, Paramount, Sony, Warner and Disney. The group issued a promotional booklet at the event featuring the bold blue headline, "Blu-ray Victory Inevitable." Of the research the group presented, the most compelling data by far was a list of the Top 20 Selling DVDs of 2006… indicating that only 4 of the 20 would or could be released on HD-DVD, and only 1 was exclusive to HD-DVD (Universal's King Kong). But of the 20 titles, 19 of them would be available on Blu-ray and 16 of them would be exclusive to Blu-ray.

    The group cited research by analysis firm GFK indicating that Blu-ray had already won the high-def format war in Japan, with more than 96% dominance of the market. They also reiterated the announcement that Sony had shipped 1 million Blu-ray equipped PS3s to U.S. retailers as of 12/31 (my guess is that they were shipped RIGHT at the end of 2006, in the very last few days of December), and that their survey of 10,000 PS3 owners indicated that 80% planned to purchase Blu-ray movies (after seeing the copy of Talladega Nights included in the package) and that 75% of them planned to use the PS3 as their primary movie viewing device. At an "intend to purchase" rate of 80%, the group calculates an installed base of Blu-ray players in the U.S. of more than 800,000 in the next few weeks alone (provided the million PS3s sell through quickly, which remains to be seen). They also indicated that Blu-ray software sales surpassed HD-DVD sales in December, with a strong surge coinciding with the PS3's November launch (a 700% increase since mid-November), and that they project Blu-ray software sales to outpace HD-DVD sales by a factor of 2 or even 3 to 1 in the first half of 2007.
    As a result of these numbers, Fox's Mike Dunn said that his studio believes the format war is "in its final phases." Parson's added that "We think Blu-ray will exercise its content advantage quite successfully in 2007. It's just a question of how soon it becomes apparent to everyone that Blu-ray is taking this game."


    http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa131.html
    Scroll down to the January 9th report.
    Last edited by Woochifer; 01-29-2007 at 07:23 PM.
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  21. #21
    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    Looks like Blu-ray is starting to gain some separation from HD-DVD. The Digital Bits reports that the first official Nielson VideoScan charts for Blu-ray and HD-DVD showed Blu-ray discs with a 2-to-1 sales advantage over HD-DVD in early-January. By the following week (the week ending January 14), the sales gap was approaching 3-to-1.

    Obviously, the PS3 is having some effect, but I also think that the release schedule has begun to swing in Blu-ray's favor. As mentioned earlier, 19 of the top 20 DVD titles from 2006 have already come out on Blu-ray or have already been announced for Blu-ray. IMO, that's a stunning stat and does not bode well for HD-DVD. Looks like that Blu-ray Association declaration of victory at CES, which I thought was nothing more than premature and arrogant boasting, might turn out to be an accurate reflection of market reality.

    http://www.thedigitalbits.com/

    The first official retail tracking data from Nielsen VideoScan seems to show Blu-ray Disc outselling HD-DVD in unit software sales by a more than 2 to 1 margin, and the gap is widening. According to data reported in Home Media Retailing (you'll find it on page one of the digital edition available on their website) for the week ending 1/7/07, Year-to-Date tracking indicated that for every 47.14 HD-DVDs sold there were 100 Blu-ray Disc titles sold. Just a week later, ending 1/14/07, the same YTD tracking indicated just 38.36 HD-DVDs sold for every 100 Blu-ray Discs sold. What's more, tracking by Nielsen VideoScan since the inception of both formats appears to indicate that Blu-ray Disc is quickly erasing the sales lead HD-DVD enjoyed as a result of launching months earlier in 2006. On 1/7, HD-DVD's lead was 100 discs for every 85.05 Blu-ray Discs sold, while just a week later on 1/14, that lead had been reduced to 100 HD-DVDs for every 92.40 Blu-ray Discs sold.

    Specific unit volume numbers are not available, but one would guess they're still fairly low. No doubt much of the sales surge has to do with the arrival of Sony's PS3 game system in November. We'll have to watch closely over the next few months to see if these trends are affected by specific new software/title releases on both formats from week to week. Still, this data seems to bear out claims made by the BDA at CES, to the effect that their format was outselling HD-DVD as of December 2006 and that the margin could grow to as much as 3 to 1 in early 2007. It'll be interesting to see how continuing sales of the PS3 (and new dedicated players for both formats) impact these numbers as well.
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  22. #22
    guitar mongoose icarus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Woochifer
    Obviously, the PS3 is having some effect, but I also think that the release schedule has begun to swing in Blu-ray's favor. As mentioned earlier, 19 of the top 20 DVD titles from 2006 have already come out on Blu-ray or have already been announced for Blu-ray. IMO, that's a stunning stat and does not bode well for HD-DVD. Looks like that Blu-ray Association declaration of victory at CES, which I thought was nothing more than premature and arrogant boasting, might turn out to be an accurate reflection of market reality.
    It really begs the question, was it a bad idea of putting Blu-ray in the PS3. There a few ways to look at this. From a gaming side of it, Blu-ray offers little or no advantage over HD-DVD, it just increases the production costs to make the playstation as well as the games, thus increasing the cost of the playstation, and decreasing the volume of games available.

    From the Blu-Ray player side of it, it was very possibly the best idea that sony had. By installing the blu-ray on the playstation, it really increased the awareness of blu-ray. And as Woochifer stated, that the PS3 has significantly increased the number of blu-ray players on the market. The PS3 has taken a lot of heat for having the blu-ray player installed in it. But in Doing so it has risen the awareness of blu-ray to pop idol status, while the HD-DVD still hides in the shadow playing the role of the indie band just waiting and hoping for thier chance. it really does utilize the saying that even bad publicity is still publicity. And that something that HD-DVD has totally missed out on, the publicity.

    There are probably tons of factors out there, such as having HD-DVD still being strongly associated with standard DVD. Were as blu-ray is still just as similiar, but the name difference starts to associate blu-ray as a whole new format, with nothing like it available. where as in actual fact Blu-ray and HD-DVD aren't to dissamiliar, sure there are differences but there are more similarities than differences. My HD-DVD comparison can be compared to the next Toyota Supercar to compete with ferrari's (yes its just a concept but stay with me) no matter how it stacks up to the ferrari's and lambo's its still just a toyota, and HD-DVD is still just DVD.
    that makes as much sense as a drunken mongoose playing the piano

  23. #23
    guitar mongoose icarus's Avatar
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    Even with all of the knowledge that is passed around on this forum it appears that the majority of us under estimated blu-ray, Considering that a while back there was a poll of which one would tank, and blu-ray was voted 18-6 over HD-DVD to tank!! Sure proving us wrong.
    that makes as much sense as a drunken mongoose playing the piano

  24. #24
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    Definitely the sales data is good news for Blu-ray. That said, I find it not very surprising at all. The new PS3 owners are bound to try out a disc or two to see what all the fuss is about -- the question is "Will the PS3 owners *continue* to purchase discs for a game machine?". On the AVS forums, the "Blu-ray January surge" has been talked about for months with both camps fully expecting it. Now if June comes around and the sales data still indicates a sales surge for BR, then I think it will be much more telling.

    As for the poll, I said both would survive and I still believe that. I also still believe that despite the recent sales numbers, the nearly untouched 200 million dollar ad blitz for HD DVD will begin to have an impact on "getting the word out" about the format. I also don't believe the Blu-ray name is any advantage... it does say "different" to me, but different *what* I do not know... and this is coming from someone who owns one. To me, the name advantage is strongly in HD DVD's favor... they just need to get their advertising in gear.

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  25. #25
    Loving This kexodusc's Avatar
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    The early momentum is quite surprising considering all the practical advantages HD-DVD had. If poor marketing efforts are to blame then Toshiba and the HD-DVD group should really rethink being in this business altogether.

    I agree though, too early to declare victory based on a small time period. What intrigues me is the momentum. People are finicky, if BluRay even falsely gets perceived as winning the war early on, most buyers are sure to bet on BluRay simply because it's winning or is perceived as being less risky, which leads to more sales, and the whole snowball effect begins. Not a bad thing. I just hope these things become more popular and cheaper, faster.

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